2009 年中階班 第五組 組長:葉欣夫 組員:李建昇 李雙凝 游才慧 ...
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2010 年投資邏輯報告. 2009 年中階班 第五組 組長:葉欣夫 組員:李建昇 李雙凝 游才慧 陳淑玲 郭峻嘉 林靜怡 陳 顥 楊開元 李疏祥 林泰北 邵雪津 楊順吉 指導:李建平 老師. 投資理財之觀念. 成功致富的三大要素. 成功致富的三大要素. ˙ 態度 ( 觀念 ) ˙ 執行力 ˙命運. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2009
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( )
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--1. a. b.2. a. () b.//3. ()
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1.
2.3.()4.() a. 30-100 b.
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----
MSCI20012005 0.9() 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.96() 0.6 0.6 0.7
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7208,2078% 50% 50% 50%10%20%20%+vs
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2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 20066.25%GDP
1%2%0%2007/9/182008200920092010
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/ /
GDP=C+G+I+(X-M)1.2. / /
-
IIIIIIIV / /()()//
()CRB
/
()
/
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( 3~6)
-
OECD4
ISM81Q FOMC 8/12 FOMC Fed 0.0%-0.25%2009/7 -17.7%-19.3%2009/8 47.4 54.147.9NFP -44.3 -24.7 2008/8
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Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
-
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 41.GDP/147102.(6~912~2)3.(Q2Q3)(Q1Q4)()
-
GDP 20% 3 ( 6.8% 13)70%
-
(:30)9,300 10,000 9,000 1,0600
-
S&P500(:500)1,000 1,100 950 1,150
-
NASDAQ()2,000 2,150 1,900 2,300
-
2000()570 640 530 700
-
PMI3550
GDPQ1 -4.8%Q2 -4.6%
CPI2%(5~7)0%-0.1% -0.6%
-
IFO 35
ZEW( 0) 4856.1
PMI19849.2
-
Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
-
Stox5E10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000
-
DAX30 (NASDAQ) 10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000
-
BC
8
II5
-
10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000225
-
19,200 22,000 12,000 25,000
-
1,400 1,800 1,000 2,000KOSPI
-
6,700 7,384 6,100 7,603
-
800 1202 600 1,600
-
55,000 60,000 48,000 74,000
-
CRB250 270 186 278
-
() () CPI () USD [ ]() USD [ ]
-
950 1032 700 1300
-
68 73 50 80
-
()+()
-
..CRB.. 10019991157.6 657.613.6 11.99.14.23.6
-
=+
=+ =+
-
()()()()()
-
(GDP)
(CPI)
()
-
2010
-
Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
-
ECFA-- MOU--926WINDOW7C(CULV Calpella)2000--LEDIC
-
( 2009 / 06 / 29 00:10)
(CPI) 2010-2011 2 CPI 3-6%
20078
( 2009/06/12 15:07)20092010
-
(1) (2) (3)
200920102009/6/13 121.25%2009/7/30 12802009/7/28 FED2009/8/7 1100%84%2009/8/12 FED20117%
-
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) MACD
-
(1)(2)
!
!END
**