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TRANSCRIPT
2013
i
2020 2030
ii
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………… P17
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2050 …. P21
2020 2030 …….. P35
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………………………… P40 … P73
2020 2030 ………... P83 …………………………………………………… P88
…………………………………………………………………. P100
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2013 … P110
iii
2013
2013 2013
2013
WG
1
IPCC AR4
2050 2000
2020 1990 25 40 2050 80 95
22 18
2008
2
2011 11
201322
12
2030 1 22
2310
2013
1 2020 2030 14
3
24 27
2050 80 2020 2030 2050 80 2020 2030
24 30 100
4
20132212
2011
2013
WG
2011
12
5
2012 18
27
2050 80
201110
2013
2011 12
6
23 12 21
7
2
24 30 1002013
2013
2
LNG
8
9
(IPCC 4 )
AR4
AR4
20
50
AR4 1750 CO2
1.66 W/m2 17500.12 W/m2 1600
( 0.2 W/m2)
AR4
2120
0.5 1.5
10
AR4
AR420 30
2050 2000
450ppm2020 1990 25 40 2050 80 95
IPCC 4
AR4 IPCC 20113 SRREN 11 4 SREX
SRREN
SRREN 2050
3 Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 4 (Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation)
11
SREX21
21
21SREX
1898 2010 1001.15 1906 2005 100 0.74
1990
2009 1021 2071 2100
1971 2000 20100mm 100
100 30
12
IPCC
IPCC AR4
2013 2014 IPCC 5 AR5AR4
CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways
SSPs Shared Socio-economic Pathways IPCC5
20102011
IPCC AR5
AR5 AR5
13
2013
2009 G8 205050
1990 205080
2009 12 COP15
I 20202010
2020 199025
2010 11 12 COP16
NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action
MRV Measurement Reporting Verification
COP17
2011 11 12 COP17
20122015 2015
2020
MRV
14
COP17 2013
HFC PFC
COP16
G8
2013 15
COP17
2012 15
2020COP
2020
202025
2020
15
MRV2020
2
EU 20-20-20 2020 2020 20
2020 40GDP
CO2
2020
2009 COP15 2010 2012150
2012 2 132
COP172013
17
16
14REDD+
2020 1,000
17
2010 12 5,800CO2 1990 0.3
2010
2010
CO2 1,059(84%) 1,123(+6.1%) 1,076 1,089(+1.6%+2.8%)
482(38%) 422(-12.5%) 424 428(-12.1% -11.3%)
164(13%) 217(+31.9%) 208 210(+26.5% +27.9%)
127(10%) 172(+34.8%) 138 141(+8.5 +10.9%)
217(17%) 232(+6.7%) 240 243(+10.3% +11.9%)
67.9(5%) 81.0(+19.3%) 66(-2.3%) CO2 85.1(7%) 68.6(-19.4%) 85(-0.6%)
33.4(3%) 20.4(-38.8%) 23(-32.3%) 32.6(3%) 22.1(-32.4%) 25(-24.2% -24.0%)
51.2(4%) 23.5(-54.0%) 31(-39.5%) 1,261(100%) 1,258(-0.3%) 1,239 1,252(-1.8% -0.8%)
19 2010 24 13 2010 2010
CO2
CO2 CH4
N2O
2008 78 ha
18
2009 81 ha 59 ha 4,633
2009103 t-CO2
2012 9,756
20082010 1.7
2000 2010188
64 73 31 20
2011 122009
19
2013
24 7 110
2008 2010
20082010 1.7 33 7,200
35 5,700
2011 2012
2011 11
20
21
2050
22050
24 272050 80
2050 80% G8
WG
WG2050 80
20502050
2050
WG2020 2030 2050
80%
2050
WGWG WG
WG WGWG
22
2050
2050
2050
CO2 CCS
20502050 90
ITS Intelligent Transport Systems
CO2
CO2
2050CCS
2050CO2 CCS
CO2
23
GWP5
CO2
2050
CCS 2050 80
5 GWP CO2
24
CCSCO2 CO2
8,000 6 23 1221
WG 20202030
6 CCS
CO21 8,000
25
20302030
2050
WG
CCS CCSCCS CO2
20502050
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
26
WG
WG2020 2030 2050
2050
WG 2050WG
2050
20502050
2050
2010 1 2,800 2050▲24% 9,700
15 65 2010 8,200 2050▲39% 5,000 2010
LCS2050
WGLCS2050
()
( )2050
27
75
2050 901%
2050 GDP 13.2% 2000 4.3 6.4%
WG
28
R&D
R&D
MIJ
SB
RI
Share
29
2050
0.95
2050750 800720 590
390
AIM2050
2050 80
30
CCS 80%
80%
2050 80
2050
31
WG 80%
CO2
2050 80%
WG WG WG
WG WG 2050
WG
WG
32
WG SWG() SWG WG
40 2050
33
2020 2030
WG
WG2050
2050 90
ITS
CO2
34
CO2
2020 2030
WG
WG
2050
2050CO2
2020 2030
WG
WG
2050
CO2
20202030
WG
35
2020 2030
CO2
WGWG WG WG WGWG
WG
WG
36
2013
20202010
20302030 2020
WG
40 2050
37
SWGSWG
38
180
23 12 11
CO2
LRT BRT
39
CO2
40
ICT
ICT
ICT
CO2 ICT
ITU CO2
WG
ICT CO2
WG
41
WG
Sustainability SmartSafety Security
42
BAT Best Available Technology
BAT
BAT
43
BAT BATBAT
LED
CO2
44
LED
J-VER CO2
BP2030 3,880 IEA
BLUE Map 20504 9
10 S
22 18
2020 50140
WG
45
MEPS Minimum Energy Performance Standard
MEPSMEPS
46
WG
CO2
47
QOL
CO2
ITS
CO2
20202015
48
CO2
ITSICT
CO2
ITS
49
LRT BRT
CO2
WG
CO2
CO2
50
WG
19902000
90 2000
2010
51
112011
2011 201014
2011 20122011
15NEB Non-Energy Benefit
QOL
CO2
QOL
2050 CO2
7
7
52
202011
8
MEPS
HEMS BEMS
WG
HEMS
8
53
CCS
54
WG
WG
Safety E
55
2013 2050
2050 80CO2
CO2
CCSCO2 Capture Ready
LNG CCSLNG CO2
CCS CO2
Capture Ready CCS
CCS CO2
CCSCO2 Storage Ready
CCS
CO2
Safety + E
LNG
LNG
LNG
56
LNG
LNG
WG 2050CCS CCS
2030 CO2
2030CCS
20202030 CO2
CO2
57
IRR10
2020 2030
2020 1.3 2.0 2030
58
2030
HEMS BEMS
CO2
59
60
40 60 20
30 10 15
61
9
CO2
9 23
24 6 13
62
WG
Safety+3E10
CCS
Capture Ready CCS Ready
10 kWh LNG
kWh 2010 kW2010
63
WGCO2
NOx
64
WG
2010 CO2 1 3,460t-CO2 1.9% 250 t-CO2
HFC 170 t-CO2
HCFC HFC
50 t-CO2
3 1995 33.5% 6,760 t-CO2
CO2 1,650 t-CO2
65
SF6
1,510 t-CO2
HFC HCFC-22 HFC-23 2004HFC
HFC 2010 1,700 t-CO2 HFC 93.4
HFC
850
66
CO2
CO2
CO2
HFC HCFC HFC
HFC
67
HFC
HFC
HFC
19702030
HFC
HFC-152a
68
CO2
WG
69
10
CO2
CO2
CO2
22 12
2013
70
LED
11
2020 CO2 25
20502013
WG
11
71
WG
72
73
WG
AIM12
13 ( 1990 )
12 AIM WG
CO2
13 24 24
74
14 ( 1990 )
15
14
15
75
( 1990 )
2010 GDP 1.1% 20200.8%
AIM
76
AIM
DEARS
BAU
77
WG CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
78
GDP
CO2
WG
DEARSCO2
CO2
CO2
2030
GDP
CO2
GDP 1.9 8.9 2030
CO2
79
GDP 2030
CO2 ( 1990 )
2030
CO2 ( 1990 )
CO2
85149 2030
CO2
80
44 77 2030
2030
CO2 ( 1990 )
2030
CO2 ( 1990 )
81
CO2
21,947 94,139 t-CO2 2030
2030
CO2 ( 1990 )
LNG2030
LNG
82
GDP
GDPCO2
83
2020 2030
CO2
24 27 2050 80
84
23
23
28
35
25
85
28
2835
29
29
15
86
20 25
20202030
2020 2030
87
88
COP 17
205080 80
20
89
90
91
92
2020 2030
93
94
2030
2030
95
2030
GDP
96
GDP
*CO2 ( 1990 )
2010 1.1 2020 0.8%
97
2020 2030
* : 1990
▲80%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13% 25%
5% 0%
15% 15%
12% 20%
11% 0%
11% 15%
25% 0%
31% 15%
27% 20%25% 15%
30% 25%
2030
015%25
2020
2030
98
2010 2030
20 23
20102030 2050
2030 81 kl 94 kl67 kl 1.2
1.4 2010 39kl 2.1 2.5 2030
2050
2010LNG kWh 1.2 2030
1.5 2.0 1.2
2010
7 2030 2613
2030 135 163205 241
2020
2020
16 WG 2050 80 2010
40 165kl
99
E
100
2013
3.5
HWP
COP17
2020
2013
2013
International Assessment and Review
2013 2020
HWP3.5%
101
2020
2013
CO2
2013
102
CDM
1.6
1.6
24 1 9,75618 23 1,500
CDM
CDM2012
2020 CER 27 40 t-CO2
103
CDM
CDM128 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
2011 10 64 CDM CDM
CDMNGO
2012
CDM
CDM
104
2013
COP17
2013
1.6
105
CDM
106
20
21
22 11
24
EU
2008CCRA Climate Change Risk Assessment 5 CCRA
NAP National Adaptation Plan2012 1 CCRA 2013
NAP 1990
107
USGCRP United State Global Change Research Program NCANational Climate Assessment NCA2009 NCA 2013 NCA
2009 202010 10
122011
20102010 2010
2011
108
24
IPCC
25
IPCC 5
2020 2030 2040 2050 2090 2100
26 10 10 30
30 100
5
109
IPCC 5
110
2013
2050 80%
WG
2013
2050
CO2
17
24
NPO
( )
(
( )
WG
23 12 28
WG
23 12 28
WG
24 4 1
NTT
WG
24 2 8
NPO
NPO
WG
24 3 7
( )
24 3 7
WG
24 3 7
( )
( )
WG
24 3 7
EV
WG
WG
23 11 25
( )
( )
1
2
3
4
5
1
1
1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
10
COP17
2013
.
1
2013
201322
12
2013
8
12
102013
2
12
24 1 30 100
3
2013
COP17
4
205080 80
20
5
2050 80 2020 2030
GDP
2050
CO2
6
CO2
CO2
CO2
7
CO2
CO2
CO2
8
CO2
CO2
9
NGO/NPO
NGO/NPO
CDM
23 12
1
.
2013
2
3
4
5
)
H11
IRR6%
18 /kWh
( , ) LNG
()
(BAT)
( )
IRR10%
22 /kWh
LNG
)
GHG
IRR8%
20 /kWh
LNG
6
7
)
8
9
10
11
1990 1.1 20 0.8 30
12
13
14
2030
2020 2030 1990
15
2030
16
17
18
GDP
GDP
2.1
2.0
7.6
1.8
5.2
1.8
5.5
1.9
8.9
2010 1.1 20200.8%
19
50%
50%
50%50%
100%
BAU
20
▲80%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
13% 25%
5% 0%
15% 15%
12% 20%
11% 0%
11% 15%
25% 0%
31% 15%
27% 20%25% 15%
30% 25%
2030
015%25
2020
2030
24 272050 80
2020 2030 2050 80 2020 2030
21
26
22