2013 kuliah umum smuhidin unsri january
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materiTRANSCRIPT
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Dr Salut Muhidin([email protected])
Kuliah Umum S2 Program Studi Kependudukan
Program Pascasarjana Universitas Sriwijaya
10 Januari 2013
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Outline Presentasi
• Definisi dan peran penting demografi• Trend demografi• Beberapa implikasi dari trend demografi
• Ketenagakerjaan, • Konsumsi, dan• Sumber daya
• Peluang bisnis sebagai akibat trend demografi• Kesimpulan dan diskusi
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What is Demography?
• The scientific study of human population.• Concerned with:
– Population size – Population growth or decline– Population processes – Population distribution– Population structure – Population characteristics
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Why is Demography Important?
• Global, national, and local issues have important demographic components : – Globalization: MDG, Global Network– The degradation of the environment: Greenhouse– The backlash against immigrants: origin and
destination countries– Terrorism, violence and regional conflict– Etc..
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Related Issues with Demography
Crisis of Low Fertility
Inequality of Health
Ageing Pandemic:Bird Flu, HIV/AIDS
Human Trafficking
Socio-economicDevelopment
Population Policy
Environment
HumanSettlementPopulation
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
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More specific: Why should businesses care about populations?
Business opportunities and decisions are often information driven.1. Demand side: Populations and subpopulations are
potential markets for their goods and services.
2. Supply side: Populations and subpopulations are potential sources of labour to provide their goods and services.
Demography(change)
Business(change)
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Business Demographics
• The application of the contents and methods of demography to business problems and opportunities (Pol & Thomas, 1997)
• Examples:– Demographics are an important component of site
selection for many businesses.– Investors use demographics to find areas of potential
market growth.– Human resource managers use demographics to
increase their awareness of the special qualities and needs among their present and prospective employees.
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Use Demography in Business Decision-Making
1. Market analysis.2. Market segmentation.3. Identification of potential customers/markets.4. Site selection.5. Human resource planning6. Strategic planning of responses of demographically-related
opportunities and threats.7. Risk assessment
Superannuation and life assurance (survival rates and life tables) and other forms of insurance
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Uses of Demography in the Public Sector
1. Demography and Democracy2. Demography and Funding Allocation3. Demography and Service Provision4. Demography and Financial Planning5. Demography and Social Inclusion6. Workforce Planning7. Demography and Policy Development
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Demographic Trends
• Growing population– Higher population size and economic growth rates,
which results in:– Increased roles of migration, and– Growing rates of urbanisation
• Changing age structure: Ageing population– Increased life expectancy, particularly among women,
and lower fertility rates, which results in: Higher share of elderly people
• These demographic trends have impacts on different, yet interrelated outcomes
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Demographic Trends: Growing Population
68.632 95.259
147.490 179.379
207.437 237.641
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Population of Indonesia: 1930-2010
• Demographically, Indonesia and its regions have generally experienced in declining fertility and mortality rates. As a result, migration will eventually take its turn in determining the growth of population (Pt = P0 + B-D + Net Mig).
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Changing Age Structure:From Youth Bulge to Aged Bulge
1971 1990
2000 2010
Year = 1971
12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Year = 1990
12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Year = 1998
12.500.000 7.500.000 2.500.000 2.500.000 7.500.000 12.500.000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Pop Aged 60+ = 4.5%TFR = 5.1
Pop Aged 60+ = 7.6%TFR = 2.3
12500000 7500000 2500000 2500000 7500000 12500000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84Year = 2010
Male
Female
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Regional Diversity
Proportion of elderly (aged 60+):• Yogyakarta = 14.16% vs. Papua = 1.74%• North Sumatra = 5.90%
Population distribution by main island:• Java = 57.49% population in 6.8% land size• Rest of Indonesia = 42.51% pop in 93.2% land size
Population growth rates (Census 2010)• National = 1.49%, • The highest = 5.39% in Papua • The lowest = 0.37% in Central Java
1,000 500 0 500 1,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
North Sumatra 2010
Male
Female
200 100 0 100 200
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Yogyakarta 2010
Male
Female
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Implications from Demographic Changes
1. Changes in the Workforce • Skills shortages will primarily be present in:
– Less developed regions where educational shortfalls may exist
– More developed region’s markets where a significant proportion of the working population nears retirement age, with little prospect of worker replacement
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2. Changes in the Consumer Base• Increasing product and service needs for:
– Low-income consumers in developing markets– Consumers with higher disposable incomes in all
markets– Ageing populations in more developed markets
Implications from Demographic Changes
* PPP – Purchasing Power Parity
Source: AT Kearney
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• Ability to provide products and services which lessen impacts on resource depletion and environmental degradation are key
• If current consumption rates continue, by 2050 a global population of over nine billion will require the biological capacity of two Earths
Population growth leads to rising consumption and increasing pressure
on scarce resources
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010
Implications from Demographic Changes
3. Increasing pressure on resources and the environment
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Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes
Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
(BOP)
Resource Scarcity &
Environmental Degradation
Ageing Population-
focused ProductsSkills Shortages
Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges
Business Opportunities
Wealthier Consumers
Changes in the Workforce
Pressure on Resources & the
Environment
• Three main implications resulting from demographic changes have resulted in numerous business opportunities.
222011 SRI Roadshow
Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
(BOP)
Resource Scarcity &
Environmental Degradation
Ageing Population-
focused ProductsSkills Shortages
Affordable Healthcare
Affordable Food & Nutrition
Access to Transport
Access to Telecoms
Affordable Finance
Access to Energy
Fairtrade Systems
Food ProductivityHealthier Living &
Quality of LifeEducation Services
Hygiene & SanitationFinancial SecurityEmployment &
Outsourcing Services
Management of Resources
Automation Services
Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges
Business Opportunities
Solutions
Wealthier Consumers
Aspirational Products
Changes in the Workforce
Pressure on Resources & the
Environment
Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes
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Business Opportunity – Skills Shortages
• Main Issues– Ageing workforce which is close to retirement age ► loss of skills and knowledge
– Lack of education and vocational training ► lack of qualified new entrants into the labour market
– Poor recruitment and employee retention policies and programmes ► Different generation needs different approaches► lower productivity and higher turnover costs
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Business Opportunity – Skills ShortagesProvision of Education Services• Lack of education is a major obstacle to
development• New technologies and increased access to the
Internet may assist in offering a cheaper alternative
• Opportunities will increase for multi-skilled workers and those able to adapt to new technical or cultural environment
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• Education division is expected account for bulk of growth in revenues and profits in future
• Opportunity in the shift to digital education programmes
• Global digital education revenue mix has increased from 30% to 44% over the period 2005 - 2010
• Strong opportunities to expand in unsaturated media markets
Business Opportunity – Skills Shortages
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Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
(BOP)
Resource Scarcity &
Environmental Degradation
Ageing Population-
focused ProductsSkills Shortages
Affordable Healthcare
Affordable Food & Nutrition
Access to Transport
Access to Telecoms
Affordable Finance
Access to Energy
Fairtrade Systems
Food ProductivityHealthier Living &
Quality of LifeEducation Services
Hygiene & SanitationFinancial SecurityEmployment &
Outsourcing Services
Management of Resources
Automation Services
Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges
Business Opportunities
Solutions
Wealthier Consumers
Aspirational Products
Changes in the Workforce
Pressure on Resources & the
Environment
Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes
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Business Opportunity – Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
• Main issues– Access to essential goods and services ► human right
– Growing low-income populations ► over 4 billion people with a market opportunity estimated to be almost USD 5 trillion
– Providing the right products ► affordability, availability, acceptability, accessibility
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Access to Telecoms
• Main opportunities in mobile technologies and Internet access
– Mobile telephony offers new ICT solutions to regions that used to be without access
– Still imbalance in Internet access
Business Opportunity – Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
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Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
(BOP)
Resource Scarcity &
Environmental Degradation
Ageing Population-
focused ProductsSkills Shortages
Affordable Healthcare
Affordable Food & Nutrition
Access to Transport
Access to Telecoms
Affordable Finance
Access to Energy
Fairtrade Systems
Food ProductivityHealthier Living &
Quality of LifeEducation Services
Hygiene & SanitationFinancial SecurityEmployment &
Outsourcing Services
Management of Resources
Automation Services
Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges
Business Opportunities
Solutions
Wealthier Consumers
Aspirational Products
Changes in the Workforce
Pressure on Resources & the
Environment
Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes
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• Main issues– Globally, rising generation of
over-65s ► strong growth for certain products and services
– Social perspective ► maintenance of quality of life and the increasing need for healthcare services
– Economic perspective ► impacts on savings, investments and pensions and need for financial stability
Source: UN, 2009
Percent of the population aged 60 or over, 2000-2025
Source: United Nations 2008 Revision
Business Opportunity – Ageing Population
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Provision of Healthier Living and Quality of Life
• Healthcare expenditure for over-65s are nearly four times that of younger people
• Functional foods present growing market opportunities
• Service specialised in orthopaedics, endoscopy and wound management
Increasing shift towards managed healthcare services for elderly populations
Business Opportunity – Ageing Population
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Base/Bottom of the Pyramid
(BOP)
Resource Scarcity &
Environmental Degradation
Ageing Population-
focused ProductsSkills Shortages
Affordable Healthcare
Affordable Food & Nutrition
Access to Transport
Access to Telecoms
Affordable Finance
Access to Energy
Fairtrade Systems
Food ProductivityHealthier Living &
Quality of LifeEducation Services
Hygiene & SanitationFinancial SecurityEmployment &
Outsourcing Services
Management of Resources
Automation Services
Changes in the Consumer BaseChallenges
Business Opportunities
Solutions
Wealthier Consumers
Aspirational Products
Changes in the Workforce
Pressure on Resources & the
Environment
Business Opportunities from Demographic Changes
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• Main issues– If global population reaches 9.3
billion people by 2050, global grain production will have to feed an additional 2.5 billion people, an 40% increase
– By 2025 1.8 billion people will live in regions with absolute water scarcity, including most countries in the Middle East and North Africa
– Population growth is intensifying the demand for, and consumption of, non renewable energy sources
Food demand exceeds addition of available land for agriculture
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2010; World Bank
Business Opportunity – Sources & Environment
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Conclusions
• Two interrelated demographic trends– Growing populations ► higher population and
economic growth rates– Ageing populations ► higher share of elderly
people
• Challenges implicate changes to the workforce, consumer base and even the wider environment and use of resources
• Business opportunities exist which offer both sustainable solutions and sound financial returns.
Trends
Challenges
Solutions & Market
Opportunities