1. TaiCCAT / Taiwan integrated research program on Climate C h a n g e A d a p t a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y 2. 2 IPCC 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4 AR5 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 3. A lack in geographic balance in data and literature on observed changes Advances in integrating physical climate science with human and natural systems to assess impacts Difficulty discerning effect of regional climate changes due to adaptation and non- climatic drivers Broadening the consideration of climatic drivers, including extremes and interactive effects Little advance evidenced: societies, governance, technology, economic development Assessing a broader range of impacts of climate change in the context of other well documented stresses Most studies of future climate change were based on a small number of studies using SRES scenarios Improved understanding of the relations between adaptation, mitigation, development and sustainability Lack of knowledge regarding the nature of future changes, particularly at the regional scale Expanded coverage of adaptation Comprehensive treatment of regional aspects, with input from WGs I and III Policymakers require understanding of abrupt climate change and the impacts of such events Framing to support good policy decision, including information on risk Only a small amount of literature on the costs of climate change impacts Literature on adaptation costs and benefits was limited and fragmented Lack of high-quality observations that are essential for full understanding of causes Synergies exist between adaptive capacity and sustainable development, but further research is required AR4 major gaps AR5 major themes IPCC 4. AR4 sequential approach AR5 parallel process ( Moss et al., Nature, 2010) IPCC 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5 6. 1. 6 7. 7 Chap3. Chap4. Chap2. (NCDR) Chap1. Chap5. Chap6. Chap7. Chap8. Chap9. Chap10. Chap12. Chap11. 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4 AR5 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.1 8. 8 2013 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 - 7: 8: 9: () 10: 11: 9. 9 10. 10 11. - 2013/11 ; 2014/5; 2014/10; 2014/12; TaiCCAT 11 12. 12 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.2 13. 13 14. 14 6 D, I D, I D, I K K W K I TaiCCAT 15. - 16. 16 17. - 17 TaiCCAT TaiCCAT TaiCCAT 18. 18 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.3 19. GRB 19 20. 20 21. 21 - D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 22. 22 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 () 1 2 / / 3 / / 4 / / 5 / / 6 2 4 23. 23 TaiCCAT 24. 24 2013/11/26 25. 25 26. 26 27. - 27 -> ->GIS ->GIS > 28. 28 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.4 29. 29 - 30. 30 - Acosta et al. (2013) 31. - 31 3 6 9 32. 32 - 33. - 33 TaiCCAT TaiCCAT TaiCCAT TaiCCAT 34. 34 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.5 35. 35 - 36. - 36 UNDP (2010) 37. - 37 38. - TaiCCAT TaiCCAT R2() R2() 38 39. 39 1 3 4 5 6 2 AR4: IPCC (WGII) AR5: IPCC (WGII) 1.6 40. - + 40 41. 41 - FP7 42. 42 Comparative studies TaiCCATinHorizon2020 Coordinating and supporting research and innovation for climate action Consolidating the European Research Area on biodiversity and ecosystem services Advanced Earth-system models on relevant physical, chemical and biological Earth-system processes A strategic cooperation partnership for water research and innovation 43. - 43 DordrechtLearning and Action Aliances Horizon 2020 climate action as societal challenge 2014,2015 44. 44 1. TaiCCAT 2.AR4/AR5 TaiCCAT6DIKW 5. 6.IPCC AR4 WGII IPCC AR5 WGII AR4AR5 AR5 AR5 WG21033 Q&A 2013.9.9 45. 45 7. TaiCCAT CCliCsTCCIP 8. 6 9. Learning and Action Alliances 13. 46. 46 14. 12 GRB 3 15. TaiCCAT TaiCCAT 6 16. 47. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Environmental system Analysis (EA) Adaptation Governance (AG) Taiwan integrated research program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology Interdisciplinary Coordination (IC) 48. TaiCCAT 2014-2015 48 (EA) () () () () D.I.K.W. DIKW () GIS 49. Coast City development UHI climate plant geology Inundation erosion landslide coast pollution Dry/flood warm Food fishery disaster Water resource Bio- diversity Environmental system analysis and data bank (value-added) simulate Regional climate (Air-temPrecip Key factor) & Auxiliary data(GIS) Public health Eco- system Food Security Disaster Vulnerability Assessment Water resource interaction with TaiCCAT VA & GA and TCCIP Adaptation Governance TCCIP- regional climate model (NCDR) GIS Micro- Climate platform Value- added data Land Ocean validation Feed back EA Atmosphere Geology Ecology 102-104 50. EA- micro-climate and value-added indicator : 102 51. () 51 102 52. 52 Mode 1 Mode2 : pattern 102 53. 53 102 2003-20114 VS. 54. 54 102 55. 55 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) 102 56. 100 100 56 100 100 102 () 57. 57 ()()(1948~2008) 102 -() 58. 58 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 102 - 59. EA-102 TCCIP EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function) () ENSOPDO ()1989SPOT ()Gamma (SPI) 59 60. EA-102 90 98 8594 15 3.2-5.33.2-3.52.3-6.7 mm/yr 0.8 0.2/0.5 0.1/ () 60 61. TaiCCAT 2014-2015 61 GIS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. () () ()() D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 (EA) 62. 62 (1) 63. D2D3 SPIi.e. Gamma 63 (2) - 64. 64 D2D3 D1 D6S4S1S2 (2) - 65. b D4 D6 S3 R3R1 65 Location Range Deposit/Erosion muck (103m3) Deposit Erosion Total Northern sandbar 0~ -5m 304 1293 -989 -5~-10m 291 665 -374 Central barrier 0~-5m 489 1278 -789 -5~-10m 104 441 -337 Southern sandbar 0~-5m 605 793 -189 -5~-10m 51 92 -41 Ground truth measurements of deposit and erosion muck during 2003 May to 2005 June from the edge of three sandbars and barrier offshore ward to the water depth of -10m. (2) - 66. (3)-GIS 66 Ex. 67. EA-D1 67 1. a 2.a (SST, SSC, SSH, SSW) a 1.501.6C 2. ( ) 1982-2006 1.22(Belkin et al., 2009) 501.6 ( ) 68. EA-D1 68 1.20 20 2. 3.( ) 4. 20 20 ( )() 69. EA-D1 69 1. GIS 2. 3.7.1, (b) (p. 37)20 ( ) 1-2 3. 20 70. EA-D1 70 24 2 ( )GIS 71. EA-D2 71 1. 2. 4. 5. ,. . 6. . 1. 2 & 6. ( ) () 4. & 5. (Lidar) 72. EA-D2 72 3. 3. ( )(D3 D4D1) ()(D2) D3 D4 D5 73. EA-D3 73 1. 2. () 3. 4. 1. 2. (C102) 3. 4. (305) 74. EA-D3 74 5.GISGEE 3D GIS GIS 6.GIS 7. 5. 6. 7. 30 5 75. EA-D4 75 1. 2. WASH123D 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. D5,D6( Vulnerability) 5. 76. EA-D5 76 D6 D1 D1 D4 77. EA-D6 77 19921998 78. EA-D6 78 79. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Environmental system Analysis (EA) Adaptation Governance (AG) Taiwan integrated research program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology Interdisciplinary Coordination (IC) 80. / 80 81. 81 82. 82 NCDR 83. 83 () AR5 DIKW 84. (CSD Model, CSD Meta-Model) TCCIP AR5 84 () 85. 85 () (CSD-Model) (CSD Model) TCCIP AR5 CSD Model (CSD Meta- Model) 86. 86 87. 87 SOP 88. 88 1 a. b. CSD c. d. Feedback CSD e. 2 (SOP) 3 4 / a. (gap) b. c.CSD CSD causes tree 5 a. b. SOP 89. 89 () 90. 91. : 92. : 92 93. 93 94. 94 () / / 95. IPCC AR5 95 96. 96 UNESCO-IHE IMPRESSIONS Dordrecht Europe Dr. Zevenbergen Dr. Harrison 97. () DIKW I 4 I 2,3 I 4 W 4,5 K 2,3 I,K 1,4,5 K 1,2,3 D,I,K 1,2,3 97 98. DIKW K,W 4 I 4 K 2,3 I,K 2,3 I,K 5 I,K 1,2,3 K,W 4 I,K 1,2,3 W 1,2,3 98 99. DIKW K 2,3 K 2,3 K 2,3 K 2,3,5 K 1,2,3,4,5 K,W 1,2,3,4,5 W 4,5 K 4,5 W 1,2,3,4,5 99 100. (1/7) 100 101. (2/7) 101 () S1 (CSD Model) CSD Model CSD ModelCSD Model 102. (3/7) 102 103. (4/7) 103 104. (5/7) 104 105. (6/7) 105 6. ~ ~ ~ 106. (7/7) 106 () () ? (CSD Model) CSD Model CSD ModelCSD Model IPCC 107. (S1) () 107 DIKW I 1,2,3 I 2,3 K,W 4 I 2,3 K 2,3 108. (S1) 108 DIKW K,W 4 I 4 I,K 2,3 I,K 2,3 I,K 1,2,3 I,K 2,3 109. (S1) 109 DIKW K 1,2,3 I,K 2,3 I,K,W 2,3 I,K 2,3,4 110. (S2) () 110 DIKW I,K 2,3 I 1 D,I 1,2,3 D,I 2,3 K,W 4 K,W 1,2,3,4 111. (S2) 111 DIKW D,I 1,2,3 D,I 2,3 I,K 1,2,3 K,W 2,3 W 3 K,W 1,2,3,4 112. (S2) 112 DIKW K,W 1 D,I 2,3 K,W 4,5 K,W 1,2,3,4,5 K,W 1,2,3,4,5 113. (S3) () 113 DIKW I 1 I,K 1 I,K 3 I,K 3 W 4 I,K 3 W 2,3 I 2,3 114. (S3) 114 DIKW K 4 K,W 4,5 I,K 2,3 K,W 3,4,5 K,W 3 W 3,4 115. (S3) 115 DIKW K,W 2,3 K,W 2,3 K,W 1,2,3,4 K,W 4 K,W 1,2,3,4 116. (S4) () 116 DIKW D,I,K 1,2,3 I,K 2,3 K,W 4,5 K,W 1 W 4,5 117. (S4) 117 DIKW D,I,K 1,2,3 I,K 2,3 K,W 4,5 K,W 1 W 4,5 118. (S4) 118 DIKW D,I,K 1,2,3 I,K 2,3 K,W 4,5 K,W 1 W 4,5 119. (S5) () 119 DIKW I 1 I 4 W 4 K 2,3 K 1 K 4 K 2,3 K,W 1,2,3 120. (S5) 120 DIKW K,W 4 I 4,5 K 2,3 K 4,5 K 2,3 K,W 2,3 121. (S5) 121 DIKW D,K 2,3 K 2,3 K 4,5 K 1,2,3,4, 5 W 4,5 K 4,5 W 1,2,3,4, 5 K 1,2,3,4, 5 122. Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Environmental system Analysis (EA) Adaptation Governance (AG) Taiwan integrated research program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology Interdisciplinary Coordination (IC) 123. - R1: - R2: - R3: - R4: - R5: 123 124. 124 5 125. 125 126. 126 - D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 () 127. 1. 2. :, 1.: 2.: 3.: 4.: : 1. , 2. 3. 127 128. 128 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 1 2 / / 3 / / 4 5 / 6 / / 7 2 4 129. 129 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 1 2 / / 3 / / 4 5 / 6 / / 7 2 4 130. R1: 130 1. . () 1. 2. GCM 2. (D1~D6)(S1~S6) 1. 2. (R3) R4 R5 R2 131. R1: 131 3. 37 1. 14 2. () (R3) (R2,R5) (R2)(R1)(R5) (R4,R5)5 4. 1. () 2. 132. R1: 132 5. / 38 1. () () 2. R4 6.39 39 2 4.1 4.1 20 20 1. (,, ,) , ( ),, 2. 900, 133. R1: 133 7. 1. (1) ; (2) 2. 1 R5 3. 2 GIS 8.19 re/ide