2014 0310-銀行業評估報告

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關鍵產業衝擊報告(二) 兩岸服貿協議不對等需重新談判: 以銀行業為例 鄭秀玲賴中強和邱文聰 1

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2. 2 3. 2012 GDP9,402423 3 4. 4 2.1 2.2 5. 2.1 - 1990 20% 1990~2001 :199125200153 10463005 2001~ 5 6. 2.1 ()- 200471 2012 6 7. 2.1 ()- : : 44-2 : 61 62 1315 : 7 8. 2.2 - 1979 1980 ~2000 : : 1994 2003 WTO 8 9. 2.2 ()- 95% 5% 0 50 100 150 200 250 5 12 144 212 () : 14 9 10. 2.2 ()- 2005 2006 2007 2008 59.48 57.12 54.47 53.76 52.90 45.70 39.35 33.94 65.41 54.10 43.49 36.70 CR4 2005 2006 2007 2008 68.50 65.81 63.01 62.13 60.87 52.59 45.28 39.06 75.04 62.06 49.89 42.10 CR8 : 65% 201260% Rs= / Rl= / Ra= / 10 11. 2.2 ()- 1994 11 12. 2.2 ()- : 12 13. : vs () 13 14. 14 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 15. 4.1 15 20 400 200 2,300 16. 4.2 : 16 64 400 : 17. 4.3 17 18. 18 12/25 80 (WTO Plus) WTO+ WTO- 4.4 19. 19 200111WTO 20021WTO WTO 4.4 () 20. 20 5.1 5.2 20136 21. 5.1 2011 4 2011 11 ECFA 2013 4 21 22. 5.2 20136 ( ) 1. OECD 2. 3. () 10%( 15%)( ) 15% 20% 4. 1. 2. 3. ( ) 4. ( ) 5. 6. 22 23. 23 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 24. 6.1 20137 1000 961000 410 100 24 25. 6.2 (: 10%) 25 26. 6.2 () 26 20139 510 27. 6.3 27 28. 6.3 () MOU 28 29. 6.4 29 30. 6.4 () 2009731 () 30 31. 6.4 () () 31 32. 6.4 () () (1): (2): () authorizationvalidationsettlement 32 33. 6.5 33 34. 34 35. 35 2013/9/06 2013/12/31 2013/9/06 http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/FM/092/FM-R-092-011.htm http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/FM/090/FM-R-090-039.htm http://www.tabf.org.tw/tw/user/91400_57/ http://finance.big5.gog.com.cn/system/2013/12/04/012948678.shtml http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/FM/094/FM-R-094-016.htm http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/theory/2009- 07/06/content_11662161.htm 36. () 36 http://www.chinabiz.org.tw/keyword/financial http://www.ibtimes.com.cn/trad/articles/30520/20130701/242206.htm http://www.wtocenter.org.tw/SmartKMS/www/Epaper/wtoepaper/article359.htm http://www.kpwan.com/news/viewNewsPost.do?id=576 http://old.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/FM/094/FM-R-094-016.htm http://www.docin.com/p-75836411.html http://news.sina.com.tw/article/20130402/9285440.html http://www.zhihu.com/question/20439016 http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/sep/7/today-p4.htm 37. 37 2013621 (ECFA) () ECFA () ECFA 2010629 ECFA 201289 2013621 ( ) 2013 ECFA 38. () 38 http://www.ecfa.org.tw//EcfaAttachment/ .pdf 39. 39 https://www.facebook.com/renegotiation () : ? () : ? () : ? 8/23 ~ 10/4 - ?? http://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~ntuperc/Conference- 1.htm () 40. ()20134 1OECD OECD 2 Offshore Banking Unit, OBU 3 10%QDII15% 15% 20% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 40