2014 utzon lecture series - governing london: progress and prospects by professor john tomaney

Governing London

John Tomaney

Utzon Lecture, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 3 September 2014

London Sydney

• Established: 1788

• Area

– 12,367.7 km2 (4,775.2 sq mi)

• Population (2013)

– 4,757,083 (380/km2 [980/sq

mi])

• Government

– (State government agencies)

– 38 LGA(s)

• Established: c. 43 AD

• Area

– 606.95 sq mi (1,572.00 km2)

• Population (2013)

– 8,416,535 (13,870/sq mi

[5,354/km2])

• Government

– Mayor (Boris Johnson)

– London Assembly (25

Members)

– 32 London Boroughs

Outline

• Urban governance and urban development• London in the UK• London – a global city• Socioeconomic and spatial change in London• Governing London• Planning London• Urban governance and urban development

Urban governance and urban development


• Interdependencies and externalities alongside fragmentation of jurisdictions + mismatch in scale of need and scale of governance = “ungovernable metropolis” (e.g. Storper)

• Financial and fiscal strains (e.g. Streeck, Blyth)• “Democratic distemper” (e.g. The Economist,

Crouch)• What difference does a metro mayor make?

See: Michael Storper (2013) “Governing the large metropolis”, Working Papers du Programme Cities are back on town, 2013/7. Paris: Sciences Po; W Streeck and A Schafer (2013) Politics in the Age of Austerity. Cambridge: Polity; M Blyth (2013) Austerity. Oxford: OUP; The Economist, “What’s gone wrong with democracy?”, 21 March 2013; Colin Crouch (2004) Post-democracy, Cambridge: Polity.

London in the UK

Source: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/vince-cable-london-is-becoming-a-kind-of-giant-suction-machine/

In England administration has remained with fair constancy at Westminster, near enough to the centre of the country. Wealth has always come into England by the Thames at London. At any rate in later centuries, the tendency has been for the Administration to settle near the centres of wealth and the combined attractions have made the tract of marsh and flat ground in the lower basin of the river the centre of the Arts, of the Industries, of the Recreations and of the moral ‘tone’, not for England alone but for wider regions of the earth

- Ford Madox Ford (1905) The Soul of London. JM Dent

London in the UK

-26.0

-21.0

-16.0

-11.0

-6.0

-1.0

4.0

9.0

14.0

19.0

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

% d

evia

tio

n f

rom

UK

rea

l GV

A p

.h.

WAL NE NI YH NW WM EM SW SCOT GSE GSE 20.7%

SCOT -4.5%

SW -5.5%

EM -6.8%

WM -10.5%

NW -12.4%

YH -12.6%

NI -19.4%

NE -20.9%

WAL -22.0%

UK=0

Relative (headline) GVA per head, 1968-2005, UK regions

Source: Author’s elaboration of ONS data

Source: The Economist, 9.11.13Source: The Economist, 22.3.14

Source: Savills Spotlight Prime Regional Residential Markets Spring 2014

Commuting patterns in the London/South East England Mega-City-Region

Source: GaWC Research Bulletin 307

London – a global city

Niels Møller Lund, The Heart of the Empire, 1904, Oil on canvas, 137 x 183 cm, Collection: City of London Corporation


The Global Financial Centres Index September 2012

Source: Qatar Financial Centre Authority/Long Finance (http://www.longfinance.net/Publications/GFCI%2012.pdf)


Source: Financial Times, 17.1.14

Source: The Guardian, 23.7.14


Socioeconomic and spatial change in London

• Demographic shifts• Socio-spatial polarisation• Austerity

Source: Mayor of London


Governing London

Governing London

• The problem• History• Who runs London?• The GLA Group• Mayoral Strategies

Governing London: the problem

• Choosing the most appropriate governmental framework of London has always been problematic

“Governing London is a complex business. The city's vast population, its geography and history conspire to make the British capital an unusually difficult place to govern… The regularity with which London's government is reorganised suggests there is something unusual about the pressures that affect successive systems” (Travers 2004).

• Reforms often reflect power plays between different economic and political actors as the search for solutions to agreed problems

Source: Ford Madox Brown, Work, 1865, Oil on canva, Manchester City Art Gallery

Sir Joseph William Bazalgette (1819 - 1891), standing top right, views the Northern Outfall sewer being built below the Abbey Mills pumping station. Photo: Otto Herschan, 1869

Governing London: historyLondon County Council (LCC) (1888 – 1964)

Greater London Council (GLC) (1964 – 1986)

No strategic regional governance

Greater London Authority (GLA) (2000 – )

Governing London: LCC

Governing London: the Boroughs

The crowd at County Hall, June 10 1984

Yes: 72%No: 28%

Turnout: 34%

Governing London: Greater London Authority referendum, 1998

Are you in favour of the Government's proposals for a Greater London Authority, made up of an elected mayor and a separately elected assembly?

Results by Borough

Governing London: Who Runs London?

GLA

•Strategic Authority•Elected Mayor•London Assembly•600+ paid officers

Mayor

•Promotes economic, social & environmental development•Prepares plans & policies for sustainable development

Assembly

•25 elected members (11 city wide & 14 constituencies)•Overview & scrutiny function

Boroughs

•32 boroughs & City of London•Responsible for running local public services•Local planning authorities

Central Government

•Provides funding to Mayor, TfL and boroughs•Sets legislative & regulatory framework

Governing London: the GLA Group (2000 – 2010)

Greater London Authority

London Development Agency

Transport for London

London Fire and Emergency Planning

AuthorityMetropolitan Police Authority

Olympic Delivery Authority

Governing London: Sponsored Bodies (Pre 2010)

London Climate Change Agency

Design for

London

Think London

Study London

Governing London: The GLA Group (Post 2010)

Greater London

Authority

London Legacy Development

Agency/Mayoral Development Agency

Transport for London

London Fire and Emergency

Planning AuthorityMayor’s Office for Policing and

Crime

Governing London: Sponsored Bodies (Post 2010)

London and Partners

London EnterprisePanel

Planning London: a longstanding concern

Planning London: division of responsibilitiesMay

or

Boroughs

Asse

mbly

• Sets strategic planning framework (London Plan)

• Determines compliance with London Plan

• Right to direct refusal or determine strategic applications

• Boroughs are Local Planning Authorities

• Prepare Local Development Frameworks for area

• Required to consult Mayor on strategic applications and LDF documents

• Scrutiny function• Standing

Planning and Housing committee

• Undertakes targeted reviews and investigations

• Publishes advice and recommendations

Planning London: the London Plan

• A long term plan for London?• Politics and plan-making

– Livingstone, Johnson

• Strategy and delivery• Innovation and success?

Planning London: the London Plan

• Intended to provide a strategic framework for the long term sustainable growth of London

• However, 3 versions in 12 years and numerous draft and replacement policies

• “All strategy and no action”?• Heavily influenced by political leadership and national

policy environment• ‘Personalised planning’

Planning London: do mayors matter?

Planning London: do mayors matter?

Livingstone Plan• Central ‘World City’ vision with

London as driver of national economy

• Makes case for additional national investment

• Strong focus on sustainable development

• Polycentric development with identified ‘opportunity areas’

• Looks east – particularly to the Thames Gateway as growth area

• Prescriptive policies and guidance to boroughs

Johnson Plan• ‘World City’ narrative less central

and vision more dispersed and less strategic

• Recognises importance of sustainability but gentler language

• More focus on less defined notions of ‘quality of life’ and the experience of London

• Less prescriptive, more collaborative approach giving boroughs flexibility to interpret

• Concerns that flexibility on targets and sustainability make it a ‘charter for money-hungry developers’

See: Holman (2010): The Changing Nature of the London PlanSource: Holman, N (2010) The changing nature of the London Plan In: Scanlon, Kath and Kochan, Ben, (eds.) London: coping with austerity. LSE London, London School of Economics

Planning London: key issues

1. Housing

2. Transport and infrastructure

3. “Regeneration”

4. Economic performance

5. London Infrastructure Plan

Housing

Source: The Economist, 11.1.13

Source: The Guardian, 5.7.14

Source: Osborne, H (2014) “Poor doors: the segregation of London's inner-city flat dwellers”, The Guardian, 25.7.14http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/25/poor-doors-segregation-london-flats

Section 106 and Affordable Housing “Poor Doors”

Source: Savills using DCLG data and HSSA data

Transport

Source: Transport for London

Passenger journeys on local bus services since 1985/86

Source: Department for Transport data in IPPR (2014) Greasing The Wheels Getting Our Bus And Rail Markets On The Move (http://www.ippr.org/assets/media/publications/pdf/greasing-the-wheels_Aug2014.pdf)

Sources: TfL; Crossrail

The impact of the arrival on Crossrail oncentral London commercial property prices

Average Price per Square Foot

% uplift

Average Price per Square Foot

% uplift

Before Crossrail Bill 2005

AfterCrossrail Bill 2005

Before Crossrail Construction 2009

After Crossrail Construction 2009

Within half mile

£471.96 £725.69 54% £594.92 £741.33 25%

Outside half mile

£447.95 £621.57 39% £533.09 £626.92 18%

Difference £24.01 £104.12 15% £61.83 £114.40 7%

Source: R Thompson (2014) The Crossrail Effect. The Impact of the Arrival on Crossrail on Central London Commercial Property Prices (http://londonfirst.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/LF_CROSSRAIL2_REPORT_2014_Single_Pages.pdf )

TFL Crossrail levy receipts 2013/14

Source: Planning, 14.2.14

Crossrail 2 opportunities for development

Source: TfL

Economy

Source: LSE Cities

Randstad

London

Amsterdam

Hague

Rotterdam

Utrecht

Source: Centre for Cities/McKinsey (2014) Industrial revolutions: capturing the growth potential. (http://www.centreforcities.org/assets/files/2014/14-06-26-Final-web-Industrial-Revolutions.pdf)

Regeneration

Source: https://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/business-economy/vision-and-strategy/infrastructure-plan-2050

London Infrastructure Plan

Projected capital expenditure requirement by sector (including enhancements and renewals), 2016-2050 (£ billion). 2014 prices

Source: Arup/GLA The cost of London's long-term infrastructure. July 2014. (https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/The%20cost%20of%20London%27s%20long-term%20infrastructure%20by%20Arup.pdf)


• Global cities as national champions?– An imbalanced national political economy?

• Mismatched planning institutions?– London versus the mega-region

• Public investment and private returns?– What price inequality and liveability?

• Do Mayors make a difference?– Thin narrow conception of democracy?

Global cities as national champions?

Politicians often lament the divide between the rich south and the poor north of England. They are being sloppy. What is really happening is that a few cities are pulling ahead of the rest of the country. They are indeed like vacuum cleaners, sucking in talented people, highly paid jobs, government investment and, lately, power.

London has achieved all this without being especially well run. This is no slight to Boris Johnson, the city’s ambitious mayor; he simply does not have much power. London’s 33 boroughs collectively have greater heft, but even they do not have much. The most important decisions about London are made by the national government in Westminster.

Scarce resources should go where they will generate the greatest returns. Trying to resist the agglomeration effects of big cities is not just a waste: it is actively harmful to Britain’s economy.

Source: The Economist , 9.11.13

Source: Pickford, J (2014) “Recovery likely to widen wealth gap between London and regions”, Financial Times, 19th January

London poverty was already becoming more suburban and more diffuse even as income inequality in the city rose [during the 2000s]

- Centre for Analysis for Social Exclusion (2012) (

Source: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/poverty-housing-london-fenton/

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2012/aug/01/boris-johnson-stuck-zip-wire-video

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way

- Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities (1859)

