philipchan@abci.com.hk


, 2021
kelvinng@abci.com.hk



2022
• 2021 6.0%8.5%5.2%
3.0% 7.0%2022 4.0%5.5%4.0%2.5% 5.0%
2020 -3.4%2.3%-6.3%-4.6%-9.8%

2021
1 2021 3
5.9% 19.8%5.6%2.6% 8.1%
2020 -3.4%2.3%-6.3%-4.6%-9.8% 2021 JP Morgan
PMI PMI 50 (
2)
1: GDP (%)
GDP 2019 2020 2021 3
2.3 (3.4) 5.9
6.0 2.3 9.8
1.5 (6.3) 5.6
0.0 (4.6) 2.6
1.4 (9.8) 8.1
WTO 2021 1 16.6%
2021 2 46.3% WTO 2021 10.8%
2020 5.3%WTO 8 110.4
2016 4 20
1
:
IMF 2021 60%
30%
2021 9 2020



7
2021 11 2 3 FOMC
100 50


2022 4.7% 2021 10.8%
IMF 2021 10 2022 4.9% 2022
5.9% 3OECD 9 2022
2021 5.7% 4.5%
2022
2022

2022 150 2022 6


2022 5.5% 2021 8.5%




1.85 2022
3 200

7.0

-0.10%
GDP 2020 2021 2022
(3.4) 6.0 4.0
2.3) 8.5 5.5
(6.3) 5.2 4.0
(4.6) 2.6 2.5
(9.8) 7.0 5.0
() (3.1*) 5.9* 4.9*
: *
• 2021
2 2021 3 9.8% 2020
0.7%
• 2022
2022 GDP 5.5% 2021 8.5%

2022CPI 2021 0.9%
2.0% 2022
PPI 2021 8.0% 3.0%
• 2022
5 LPR 3.85% 4.65%
2022 RRR 2022
RRR 10.0% 8.0%
• 2021

2022
2022
2021
2 2021 3 9.8% 2 2020
0.7% ( 1) 2021 3
6.4 1.5
0.9
2
: ,
4 10 10
9 -0.5% 0.5%( 2)
4.4% 4.9%( 3)
10 3.5% 9 3.1%( 4)
2(%)
:
7.1 7.1 7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7 7 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6 5.9 5.8
(6.8)
3.2
10 27.1% 10 20.6%
9 17.6%10 9 668
845
5 (%)
:
CPI PPI 2021 10 ( 6)
CPI 2.5% 10 0.7%
CPI 10 0.8% PPI 10 7.4%
1.8% PPI

:
12 10.1% 8.7% 2021 10
31 26.2
7
2022
2022 GDP 5.5% 2021 8.5%( 7)

GDP % 2.3 8.5 5.5
% 2.9 5.5 4.0
% (3.9) 12.6 6.0
% 3.6 30.0 8.0
% (0.8) 30.0 6.0
% 2.8 9.6 5.0
% 2.5 0.9 2.0
% (1.8) 8.0 3.0
6.5273 6.4500 6.4000
: , ,


2022

12
2022 CPI 2021 0.9%
2.0% 2022 PPI
2021 8.0% 3.0%
2022
2022
2021 20.5 30.0 2022
2022 1 5 LPR 3.85% 4.65%
2022 RRR 2022
RRR 10.0% 8.0%2022
(M2) 8.5%
2021
2022
2022 “”

2022
5G 2022

2022-2025
2019
19.7%
19.6%
17.0%
14.8%
13.8%
13.8%
11.9%
(10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
10.0 12.0 14.0
1 2 /0

2015
22.4% 2020 28.7% 2021 9 27.1%2021 6
36-40%“”2016-2020



(3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
1 2 /0
OECD CPI minus PPI (ppt) China CPI minus PPI (ppt)
16
“”




4700 A 4500

: (CCS)
2025
20%2020 56.8%18.9% 8.4%2020
15.9%
2.0-2.5% 2025 80%“”
0.99%-1.48%




8:
12.0
14.8
16.9%
27.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0

5G
2025 20% 2030 2035
40% 50% 2030
50%

2020 5.9% 2021 18.2%
2020 5.4% 2010 12.1%

2025
2020 1.75% 2025 9.3%

4.9% 6.7%2021 2018-2020
2011-15 6.4%2016-20
0.5%


(
)

(
)
19
2025 C-V2X 5G
C-V2X 5G 2025 5G

2025

11:

12: 2025 20% 2020-25 30%
13: 2025

0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
4.8% 5.4%
2.6 3.8 4.9 35.2
2021 2.5%2022
10.8% 2022 24,721-30,541
11.10-13.50 2022 1.15-1.40 2022 3.2%-2.6% 2022

2022
2021 9 60 2021 12 64
2022 2 80 100
2022

2022
2022
2022
30,054 24,721 27,535
21


(8.1) 1.9
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.5 6.8 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4
11.4 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.3
14.3 15.0 15.2 15.4
17.2 17.3 17.4 17.8
37.9
(15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
3690 HK 241 HK 1997 HK 101 HK 17 HK 823 HK 12 HK
762 HK 16 HK
5 HK 1 HK
1113 HK 857 HK
9618 HK 66 HK 6 HK
1038 HK 386 HK
2018 HK 2388 HK 1211 HK
1876 HK 941 HK 27 HK 2 HK
267 HK 1299 HK
11 HK 1398 HK 939 HK 688 HK
2628 HK 3 HK
288 HK 1109 HK 175 HK
2269 HK 1810 HK 883 HK
2319 HK 2318 HK 291 HK
3968 HK 2007 HK
1044 HK 968 HK 960 HK
2688 HK 2313 HK 1093 HK 6862 HK
6098 HK 1177 HK 669 HK
2382 HK 2020 HK 388 HK
2331 HK 868 HK
1928 HK



22

2021 2021 11 22
24%A50 (STAR 50) 50 (ChiNext 50) 6%25%
100 (Nasdaq 100) (SOX Index) 29% 40%

ROAA ROAE


50 1,479.99 6.2% 71.56 48.93
50 3,573.11 25.2% 56.28 43.50
100 (Nasdaq 100) 16,573.34 28.6% 30.74 28.18
(SOX Index) 3,912.02 39.9% 22.11 20.95

(ROAE)
(ROAA)
IPO
2021 11 IPO 370 2020 516
(1024 HK) 2021 IPO 16.16%
IPO 2022
2021 11 ( 2021 11 19 ) IPO 370 2020 516 IPO 82 4.73
2020 IPO 2021 11
IPO 39%(19%)(12%)(11%)(19%) (1024 HK)202111 IPO(483) IPO16.1% IPO 2021 11 IPO 4.73 2020 3.56

() ()
15,256 1,695
7,390 296
4,634 463
4,203 382
2,449 408
1,794 128
3,050 436
*2021 11 - 2021 11 19

*2021 11 - 2021 11 19
*2021 11 - 2021 11 19

*2021 11 - 2021 11 19




MSCI )
A A CSI300 )
2022E (x) 5.20 1 (1.08) 0.66
2022E (x) 0.59 3 0.77 1.28
2022E (%) 5.92 6 (5.24) 1.31
: :


HK/601288CH)(939 HK/601939 CH)
2021 3 12.2% 3.82%2021 2021 3 14.0% 12.7% 2021 4 2022E-23E GDP
2022 2023 5.5% 5.3% 2022 2023 22 23.5
2021 3 1 1.75% 2021 3 -2 +1
2022 2021 9 7 12
5.00% LPR 2021 21 3 21 3 1 2.07% 2022 2021 3 -1 +2

27



NIM (LHS) Net profit yoyNet Profit YoY () ()
1.75 1.86 1.87 1.83 1.80 1.81 1.86 1.86 1.91 1.94
1.96
1.84 1.80 1.76 1.75
3.34 3.33 3.38 3.41 3.45 3.45 3.49 3.46 3.50 3.54 3.53
3.39 3.38 3.39 3.44
2 0
1 8
-0 3
2 0
1 8
-0 6
2 0
1 8
-0 9
2 0
1 8
-1 2
2 0
1 9
-0 3
2 0
1 9
-0 6
2 0
1 9
-0 9
2 0
1 9
-1 2
2 0
2 0
-0 3
2 0
2 0
-0 6
2 0
2 0
-0 9
2 0
2 0
-1 2
2 0
2 1
-0 3
2 0
2 1
-0 6
2 0
2 1
-0 9
NPL ratio (LHS) Provisioning ratio (LHS) Provision coverage ratio () ()
5.96 5.97 5.94
H ( 2021 11 19 )

(%)
1288 HK 4.84 80.60 3.75 3.52 0.39 0.36 8.88 9.32
939 HK 9.83 88.68 3.98 3.85 0.45 0.41 8.03 8.29

A ( 2021 11 19 )

(%)
601288CH 4.96 68.14 4.92 4.61 0.51 0.48 6.78 7.12
601939CH 9.72 66.44 5.31 5.13 0.59 0.55 6.02 6.22


2022E (%) 13.64 6 (27.67) (16.22)

2022 11
2022 5%

:
7
-7% 1.35 8 -19% 1.26 9
-16% 1.57 10 -23% 1.24 2021
8 -3.7% 10,057 /9 -3.1% 9,758 /
10 -1.3% 9,749 /1)
2)
1,013 3,481
2022 2022
2022 5%2022
20% 10%
2022 10-15

(1)
(1516 HK) 11 6.9265 ( 2.6167 /)(2107 HK)32.22%
(2) 2021 9 (6098 HK) 100 () 70
14 2021 30 2021 6600
(3)(6098 HK) 33 (1778 HK)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
2022 20 10
2022 5 (9928 HK) (2168
HK) (3662 HK) 2022
2022 5.0% 2021 5.8% 2021
100 2021 55.1% 2022 57.0%


(2043 ) 3.93% 2020 3.79%
700





4)
4) 5)
2021 10 2021

(10
%
1 3900 HK 289.4 48% 12,670 30% 22,841 13% 310 93.4%
2 1238 HK 84.8 36% 5,335 31% 15,897 4% 105 80.8%
3 2777 HK 124.3 21% 9,601 10% 12,944 10% 150 82.9%
4 884 HK 209.3 20% 12,111 5% 17,277 15% 265 79.0%
5 3380 HK 116.1 20% 6,742 12% 17,216 7% 145 80.1%
6 1109 HK 251.5 16% 14,661 26% 17,153 (8%) 315 79.8%
7 3377 HK 105.7 15% 5,872 24% 17,996 (7%) 150 70.5%
8 1918 HK 512.8 14% 35,670 10% 14,376 3% 640 80.1%
9 123 HK 81.7 11% 3,012 3% 27,129 9% 112 72.8%
3883 HK 108.7 10% 9,808 3% 11,078 7% 150 72.4%
1813 HK 86.1 10% 4,448 (6%) 19,361 16% 126 68.3%
600048 CH 460.2 9% 28,617 0% 16,082 9%
817 HK 195.9 9% 10,931 16% 17,922 (7%) 250 78.4%
3383 HK 113.2 8% 7,542 (3%) 15,003 11% 150 75.4%
1233 HK 75.8 7% 3,906 (21%) 19,408 37% 110 68.9%
960 HK 227.8 6% 13,242 5% 17,205 2% 310 73.5%
688 HK 302.5 6% 15,235 (1%) 19,854 7%
813 HK 241.8 5% 13,665 4% 17,697 1% 330 73.3%
1628 HK 90.1 2% 4,591 (15%) 19,617 20% 110 81.9%
1030 HK 192.9 1% 18,830 6% 10,245 (5%)
2007 HK 494.1 (1%) 58,220 (2%) 8,486 0% 628 78.7%
2202 HK 521.1 (4%) 32,044 (12%) 16,261 8%
,
CIA
( 2021 11 19 )
()

(%)
688 HK 33.30 81.6 3.43 2.81 0.47 0.42 7.18 8.75
1209 HK 50.50 24.1 51.83 35.43 5.42 4.90 0.58 0.85

1 6 .7
- 5,000
D e
c -1

34

2022E (%) 3.26 6 41.9 62.5

2030
2025 ( ) 50% 2020-2025 11.7%

2030 2020 9 1) 2030 2) 2060 “” (2020-25 ) ()()
(NEA)“” 50% 2021
3 2025 () 50% 74% 2020-2025 11.7%
2030 2060
2021E/2022E/2023E 18%/29%/29% 2021E/2022E/2023E 18%/29%/29%
()
2021 1% 2022E/2023E 7%/3% 2021E/2022E/2023E 5%/2%/2% 2021 1%2022E/2023E 7%/3%
“” 2030
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
35
2021E/2022E/2023E 11%/4%/1%2021 9 2021 4 2021 11% 2022E/2023E 4%/1%







1: 2:

186 242 305
366 405 467
2020-2023E
360 450
2020-2023E

5: 6:

7 ( 2021 11 19 )
()

(%)
- H 916 HK 11.40 (27.4) 14.9 13.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
2020-2023E
0
20
40
60
80
100
2020-2023E
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2020-2023E
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2020-2023E

2022E (%) 2.12 6 (6.33) (10.60)

2021E/2022E 18%/26%
(000089 CH)
2021E/2022E 18%/26%(CAAC)2021 8 2,240 51%2021 8 3.17
36% 3-5 2021 18% 2022 26%
2021E/2022E 14%/4% 8 52 5% 11% 8 486
18%( 28%) 2021 25% 14% 2022 4% 3%
(MOHURD)
2020 ( 7 ) 4,650 2019 5.0%2015-2020 2.4%
2020 () 2,930 2.9% 2015-2020 6.0%
2020 ( 6 ) 3,100 2019
0.9% 2015-2020 2.3%
2020 ( 4 ) 2,680 1.3%
2015-2020 0.2%
2020 ( 4 ) 830 2019 1.5%
2015-2020 2.0%
10.6% 2020 2015-2020 6.0%
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
1.79 1.32 1.12 0.55 (NBS) 2005 5.6 2020 9.02 15 61% 3.2%


1: 2: (2019 )

3: 4:

7 ( 2021 11 19 )
()

(%)
000089 CH 9.50 31.6 27.6 18.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.4

-37%
() ()
14% 4% 4%
() ()
:
:
:
10M21
14.6% 1H21 18.7% 21 3
23.6% 21 1 21.9% 2021 10
10 20.8% 9
16.8%


()

- 10 20 30 40 50 60
1 1 /2
1: (%) 2:
(2021 10 ) (%)


(%)
9988 HK 420.0 21.3 60.5 44.5 4.5 4.5
3 .0


2022E (%) 2.85 6 (1.0) 11.4


(2020
HK)(YUMC US/9987 HK)(600887 CH)
8 9 10 4.4% 4.9% 9 10 3.1% 2.0%“”“”
CPI 9 0.7% 10 1.5% CPI () CPI CPI
“” 2 11.4% 18.5% 3 6.3% 11.5%




(10)
0
10
20
(15)
(5)
5
15
25
35

3: / ( %) 4: (/)

5: 6: CPI ( %)

(%)
(%)
2020 HK HK$ 155.1 14.5 35.94 25.50 10.10 7.94 1.08 1.22
YUMC US US$ 74.2 38.8 25.65 20.38 3.38 2.88 0.90 0.90
9987 HK HK$ 577.4 37.7 25.86 20.55 3.41 2.90 0.89 0.89
600887 CH RMB 45.6 11.6 26.80 22.04 7.49 6.79 2.62 3.18

250
300
350
400
450
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
(2)
0
2
4
6


2022E (%) 5.47 6 (42.4) (30.0)

(“”)“”

7 K-12 (“”) “” (EDU US/9901 HK)(TAL US) K-9 “” “” (“”) “” 3 100 2020 1200 265 18.1% 2020 60 10



(839 HK)
1) /2) 3) 4) 5) 6)
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30


(ICP)






4) 30 10 21




1)
1



“”“”

90










4: ()

5: ()

( 2021 11 19 )
()

(%)
839 HK 22.6 67.2 16.47 14.20 2.01 1.85 2.71 3.15

46.0 46.6 47.1 48.2
100.9 103.4 105.6 107.3
44.4 46.5 48.3 49.1
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
47


2022E (%) 2.1 6 1.1 14.5

ARPU 5G
IPTV
2022 5G 37.5%
(941 HK)

2022 5G 6 2021 10 (941 HK)(762 HK) (728 HK) 58.2%/19.2%/ 22.6% 5G 5G 2022 2.0% 5G 2022
5G 200 2021 10 5G 4.45 2022 5G 6 5G 5G 2022 5G 37.5%
2021 10 47.5%/18.7%/33.8% 2022 IPTV AR/VR 4K
2022 16.0% IDC 2021 3 3.3 6.7% 2022 16.0% 2022 3 2022 3

5G 5G ARPU 5G 5G AR/VR 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G


5G ARPU 2022 5G 2022 5G

(941 HK) 5G ARPU 2022 82.0 4.1 2022 EV/EBITDA
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70


3: 4:

5: 6:
IDC IDC
11.0%


49
( 2021 11 19 )
()

(%)
941 HK 82.0 73.2 9.6 9.5 0.81 0.78 5.6 5.7

/, ,,, ,
/,12,(1288 HK/601288 CH) (939 HK/601939 CH) (1398 HK/601398 CH) (1209 HK) (1109
HK) (3377 HK) 123 HK (3333 HK)JD.com (9618 HK) (2318
HK) (2628 HK)
<(~-10%)
:12

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