第第 2525 章章勞動市場勞動市場 ,,

失業失業 , , 以及通貨膨脹 以及通貨膨脹

A . A . 勞動市場勞動市場 :: 基本觀念基本觀念

Labor Market : Basic ConceptLabor Market : Basic Concept

B . B . 古典經濟學派的勞動市場古典經濟學派的勞動市場

The Classical View of the Labor MarketThe Classical View of the Labor Market

C . C . 解釋失業的存在解釋失業的存在

Explaining the Existence of UnemploymentExplaining the Existence of Unemployment

D . D . 失業率失業率 && 通貨膨脹之間的短期關係通貨膨脹之間的短期關係

The Short-Run Relationship Between The Short-Run Relationship Between

the Unemployment Rate and Inflationthe Unemployment Rate and Inflation

E . E . 長期總合供給曲線長期總合供給曲線，，可能產出可能產出，，和自然失和自然失

業率業率

The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve, The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve, Potential GDP, and the Natural Rate Potential GDP, and the Natural Rate of Employmentof Employment

A.A. 勞動市場勞動市場 : : 基本概念基本概念The Labor Market: Basic ConceptThe Labor Market: Basic Concept

1. 1. 失業率失業率 (UR) (UR) 是指失業人口對勞動力人口的比例是指失業人口對勞動力人口的比例

失業人口勞動力人口UR= *100%

未滿未滿 1515 歲 有酬工作歲 有酬工作 就業人口 一週內從事就業人口 一週內從事 1515 小時小時 以上無酬家屬工作以上無酬家屬工作總人 口 年滿總人 口 年滿 1515 歲 勞動力 失業人口 現在沒有工作可以立即歲 勞動力 失業人口 現在沒有工作可以立即 labor force labor force 工作且正在找工作者工作且正在找工作者

非勞動力非勞動力 nonlabor forcenonlabor force

現役軍人現役軍人 && 監管人員監管人員

民國民國 9090 年年 1515 歲以上的民間人口歲以上的民間人口 17181718 萬人萬人

勞動力人口勞動力人口 (983(983 萬人萬人 ) ) 就業人口就業人口 (938(938 萬人萬人 ))

年滿年滿 1515 歲民間人口 非勞動力人口歲民間人口 非勞動力人口 (735(735 萬人萬人 ) ) 失業人口失業人口 (45(45 萬人萬人 ))

(1718(1718 萬人萬人 ))

勞動參與率勞動參與率 = *100%= =57.22%= *100%= =57.22%

失業率失業率 = *100%= *100%=4.58%= *100%= *100%=4.58%

勞動人口年滿 15 歲人口

9831718

失業人口勞動力人口

45983

2.2. 失業的種類失業的種類(a)(a) 摩擦性失業摩擦性失業 (Frictional Unemployment)(Frictional Unemployment)

因為缺乏資訊或環境不熟悉因為缺乏資訊或環境不熟悉，，勞動者尋找適合自己興趣及技能所造勞動者尋找適合自己興趣及技能所造成的失業，可說是 成的失業，可說是 job/skill matching problemjob/skill matching problem

(b)(b) 結構性失業結構性失業 (Structural unemployment)(Structural unemployment)

因為經濟結構的改變而造成某些產業顯著性的失業因為經濟結構的改變而造成某些產業顯著性的失業(c)(c) 季節性失業季節性失業 (Seasonal Unemployment)(Seasonal Unemployment)

因為季節改變而造成的失業因為季節改變而造成的失業(d)(d) 循環性失業循環性失業 (Cyclical Unemployment)(Cyclical Unemployment)

因為經濟衰退因為經濟衰退 && 蕭條造成失業人口的增加蕭條造成失業人口的增加

B.B. 古典經濟學派的勞動市場古典經濟學派的勞動市場The Classical View of the Labor MarketThe Classical View of the Labor Market

1. 1. 古典經濟學派認為古典經濟學派認為，，透過工資率上、下調整，透過工資率上、下調整，會使得勞動需求量和勞動供給量達到均衡會使得勞動需求量和勞動供給量達到均衡

i.e.i.e. 不應該有持續性超過摩擦性和結構性失業不應該有持續性超過摩擦性和結構性失業的現象的現象 ..

2.2. 勞動供給和勞動需要曲線勞動供給和勞動需要曲線

• 勞動需求曲線勞動需求曲線是表是表示廠商在某特定工示廠商在某特定工資時所願意雇用的資時所願意雇用的工時工時

• 勞動供給曲線勞動供給曲線是表是表示家計單位在某特示家計單位在某特定工資時所願意提定工資時所願意提供的工時供的工時

3.3. 古典學派的勞動市場古典學派的勞動市場

• 假設勞動需要減少均衡假設勞動需要減少均衡工資將會降至工資將會降至 w*w*

所有想要所有想要 w*w* 的工資者的工資者都有工作所以永遠是都有工作所以永遠是充充分就業 分就業 full employmentfull employment

4.4. 古典勞動市場和總合供給曲線古典勞動市場和總合供給曲線• 古典經濟學者認為工資率可快速調整配合物古典經濟學者認為工資率可快速調整配合物

價所以價所以 ASAS 曲線是一條垂直線曲線是一條垂直線

因此財政政策和貨幣政策不會影響產出和因此財政政策和貨幣政策不會影響產出和就業水準就業水準

5.5. 失業率失業率 && 古典學派的觀念古典學派的觀念• 失業率並非一定是正確的指標來表示勞動市失業率並非一定是正確的指標來表示勞動市

場運作場運作• 失業率有時偏高即使勞動市場運作正常失業率有時偏高即使勞動市場運作正常

C.C. 解釋失業的存在解釋失業的存在Explaining the Existence of UnemploymentExplaining the Existence of Unemployment

1.1. 工資僵固性工資僵固性 sticky wagessticky wages : :

工資向下僵固性 工資向下僵固性 downward rigidity of downward rigidity of wageswages

工資為何會有向下僵固性工資為何會有向下僵固性 ??

廠商和員工之間通常訂有契廠商和員工之間通常訂有契約約，，所以廠商很難因應經濟所以廠商很難因應經濟波動而調整工資波動而調整工資

Explaining the ExistenceExplaining the Existenceof Unemploymentof Unemployment

2.2. 效率工資理論效率工資理論 當工資率提高生產力也會提高當工資率提高生產力也會提高，，所所

以廠商願意付出高於市場均衡工資以廠商願意付出高於市場均衡工資

勞動量L*

W*

W0

工資率

D

Sa b

Explaining the ExistenceExplaining the Existenceof Unemploymentof Unemployment

3.3. 不完全資訊 不完全資訊 廠商付出比均衡工資高 廠商付出比均衡工資高

工資率

勞動量L*

W*

失業

D

Sa b

4.4. 最低工資最低工資

W:W: 最低工資最低工資

W*

W

工資率

勞動量L*

D

S失業a b

• 總結總結 :: 只要是工資超過市場均衡工資就會有只要是工資超過市場均衡工資就會有失業的現象其原因可能是失業的現象其原因可能是

1.1. 工資僵固性工資僵固性

2.2. 效率工資論效率工資論

3.3. 不完全資訊不完全資訊

4.4. 最低工資最低工資

這些造成失業的原因並非互相排斥有時可這些造成失業的原因並非互相排斥有時可能同時存在能同時存在

D.D. 失 業率和通貨膨脹之間的短期關係失 業率和通貨膨脹之間的短期關係 The Short-Run Relationship Between The Short-Run Relationship Between the Unemployment Rate and Inflation the Unemployment Rate and Inflation

1.1. 失業率和物價水準是負相關失業率和物價水準是負相關

總合產出總合產出 (Y)(Y) 和失業率和失業率 (U): (U): 負相關負相關 總合產出總合產出 (Y)(Y) 和物價水準和物價水準 (P): (P): 正相關正相關 Y ↑ U ↓Y ↑ U ↓

Y ↑ P ↑Y ↑ P ↑

U ↓ P ↑U ↓ P ↑

U ↑ P ↓U ↑ P ↓

2.2. 菲力浦曲線菲力浦曲線 (The Phillips curve) (The Phillips curve) 表現通貨膨脹率 表現通貨膨脹率 和失業率之間的關係 和失業率之間的關係

• 菲利浦曲線是菲利浦曲線是 A.W. A.W. PhillipsPhillips 用英國資料導用英國資料導出一個結論出一個結論：：如果我如果我們想要降低物價上漲們想要降低物價上漲率，我們必須接受較率，我們必須接受較高的失業率高的失業率。。

3.3.歷史的透視歷史的透視

(a)1960(a)1960 年代通貨膨年代通貨膨脹率和失業率之間脹率和失業率之間有負相關有負相關

(b)1970(b)1970 和和 19801980 年代年代顯現不出通貨膨脹率顯現不出通貨膨脹率和失業率之間的關係和失業率之間的關係

4.AD,AS4.AD,AS 和菲力浦曲線 和菲力浦曲線

ASAS 不變不變，，只有只有 ADAD移移動動 P&YP&Y 就會有正關係就會有正關係

i.e. P ↑ Y ↑ U ↓ i.e. P ↑ Y ↑ U ↓ 菲力菲力浦曲線成立浦曲線成立

• ADAD 不變只有不變只有 ASAS移移動動 P&YP&Y 就會有負關就會有負關係係 , ,

P ↑ Y ↓ U↑P ↑ Y ↓ U↑

• 如果 如果 AD AD 和 和 AS AS 同時移動同時移動 PP & &Y Y 之間沒有明確的關之間沒有明確的關係，所以物價上漲係，所以物價上漲率率 && 通貨膨脹率通貨膨脹率也無法顯示出明確也無法顯示出明確的關係的關係

5.Phillips Curve 5.Phillips Curve 不穩定的原因不穩定的原因

(a)(a)進口價格進口價格

(b)(b)預期預期

• 1960 年代和 1970 年代進口價格變化很小，但在，但在19741974 和和 1979-19801979-1980 ，石油價格大幅度的上漲造成，石油價格大幅度的上漲造成ASAS往左移往左移

• ADAD 不變只有不變只有 ASAS移移動動 P&YP&Y 就會有負關就會有負關係係 , ,

P ↑ Y ↓ U↑P ↑ Y ↓ U↑

• 預期物價水準上漲結果工資合約調高生產成預期物價水準上漲結果工資合約調高生產成本提高本提高 Phillips CurvePhillips Curve 向左移向左移

Inflation and UnemploymentInflation and UnemploymentAround the World, 1997 to 2000Around the World, 1997 to 2000

Inflation and Unemployment Around the World, 1997 to 2000Inflation and Unemployment Around the World, 1997 to 2000

UNEMPLOYMENT RATEUNEMPLOYMENT RATE INFLATION RATEINFLATION RATE

19971997 20002000 19971997 20002000

CanadaCanada 9.59.5 6.66.6 0.30.3 3.63.6

AustraliaAustralia 8.88.8 6.76.7 0.70.7 3.63.6

FranceFrance 12.512.5 9.89.8 1.41.4 2.52.5

United KingdomUnited Kingdom 5.85.8 5.75.7 4.24.2 6.46.4

ItalyItaly 12.212.2 10.710.7 1.51.5 2.92.9

United StatesUnited States 4.84.8 4.14.1 1.31.3 4.64.6

NetherlandsNetherlands 5.85.8 2.92.9 3.63.6 6.26.2

SwedenSweden 7.87.8 4.14.1 0.10.1 1.41.4

GermanyGermany 11.411.4 9.19.1 1.71.7 1.51.5

JapanJapan 3.53.5 4.64.6 5.45.4 0.80.8SourcesSources: “Economic Indicators,” : “Economic Indicators,” The EconomistThe Economist, July 5 – 11, 1997; July 8 – 14, 2000. Reprinted by permission., July 5 – 11, 1997; July 8 – 14, 2000. Reprinted by permission.

E.E. 長期總合供給曲線，可能長期總合供給曲線，可能GDP&GDP& 自然失業率自然失業率

1.1. 長期總合供給曲線是垂長期總合供給曲線是垂直線直線

2.2. 長期長期 Phillips Curve Phillips Curve 也也是垂直線是垂直線

• 自然失業率自然失業率 == 摩擦失業率摩擦失業率(Frictional Unemployment) (Frictional Unemployment) + + 結構性失業結構性失業(Structural Unemployment)(Structural Unemployment)

3.3. 失業的非加速通貨膨脹率失業的非加速通貨膨脹率The NAIRU—The The NAIRU—The Nonaccelerating Inflation Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment Rate of Unemployment

• 很多經濟學家相信通貨膨脹率的變化率和失業率是負相關

• 當失業率為當失業率為 NAIRUNAIRU 物價水準成常數的改變。物價水準成常數的改變。 i.e.i.e. 通貨膨脹率的變化為通貨膨脹率的變化為 00

• Example:Example:

設某一經濟社會其勞動市場的需要和供給設某一經濟社會其勞動市場的需要和供給函數如下函數如下 ::

QQDD=100-5W=100-5W

QQSS=10W-20=10W-20

QQDD,Q,QSS:: 勞動市場的需要量勞動市場的需要量 && 供給量供給量

(( 單位單位 :: 萬人萬人 ))

(a)(a) 設此地區規定最低工資率為設此地區規定最低工資率為 $$99

問此勞動市場會有多少人失業問此勞動市場會有多少人失業

當當 W=$9 QW=$9 QDD=55 Q=55 QSS=70=70

失業人數失業人數 1155 萬人萬人

D=100-5W

S=10w-20

55 60 70

9

8

工資

勞動量

• 若無最低工資率的規定若無最低工資率的規定，，此時工資為多少此時工資為多少 ??

有多少人就業有多少人就業 ??

QQDD=Q=QSS

100-5W=10W-20100-5W=10W-20

W=8 Q=60 W=8 Q=60

1. 1. According to Classical economists, excessive According to Classical economists, excessive unemployment does not persist in the economy becauseunemployment does not persist in the economy because

a) wages will always adjust to ensure equilibrium in the a) wages will always adjust to ensure equilibrium in the labor market.labor market.

b) The labor demand does not change in the economy.b) The labor demand does not change in the economy.

c) The labor supply does not change in the economy.c) The labor supply does not change in the economy.

d) Interest rates always change to insure equilibrium in the d) Interest rates always change to insure equilibrium in the money market.money market.

  

2. 2. The type of unemployment that arises during The type of unemployment that arises during recessions is known asrecessions is known as

a) the natural rate of unemployment.a) the natural rate of unemployment.

b) cyclical unemployment.b) cyclical unemployment.

c) structural unemployment.c) structural unemployment.

d) frictional unemployment.d) frictional unemployment.

3. 3. Classical economists believe that the aggregate supply Classical economists believe that the aggregate supply curve is vertical becausecurve is vertical because

a) wages are flexible and they always change to clear the a) wages are flexible and they always change to clear the labor market.labor market.

b) The labor market is always in equilibrium.b) The labor market is always in equilibrium.

c) People who are not working are those who have chosen c) People who are not working are those who have chosen not to work at the prevailing wage rate.not to work at the prevailing wage rate.

d) All of the above.d) All of the above.

4. 4. Suppose the equilibrium wage rate in the labor market is Suppose the equilibrium wage rate in the labor market is $10 and the demand for labor increase. If wages are $10 and the demand for labor increase. If wages are sticky, there will be asticky, there will be a

a ) surplus of labor and the wage rate declines.a ) surplus of labor and the wage rate declines.

b) Shortage of labor and the wage rate increase.b) Shortage of labor and the wage rate increase.

c) Shortage of labor and the wage rate stays the same.c) Shortage of labor and the wage rate stays the same.

d) Surplus of labor and the wage rate increases.d) Surplus of labor and the wage rate increases.

  

  

5. 5. Coca Cola experienced a 20% drop in its sales. Even Coca Cola experienced a 20% drop in its sales. Even though the demand for its product decreased, Coca Cola though the demand for its product decreased, Coca Cola did not cut the wages of its nonunionized workers. This did not cut the wages of its nonunionized workers. This is an example of is an example of

a)  an explicit contract not to cut wagesa)  an explicit contract not to cut wages

b) poor management.b) poor management.

c) An implicit or social contract not to cut wages.c) An implicit or social contract not to cut wages.

d) None of the above.d) None of the above.

6. 6. Efficiency wage theory suggests that firms may hold Efficiency wage theory suggests that firms may hold wages above the market clearing rate becausewages above the market clearing rate because

a) they believe that the productivity of workers increases a) they believe that the productivity of workers increases with the wage rate.with the wage rate.

b) unspoken agreements between workers and firms are b) unspoken agreements between workers and firms are in place.in place.

c) It is required by law that they do so.c) It is required by law that they do so.

d) Long-term contract fix wage rates for a period of one d) Long-term contract fix wage rates for a period of one to three years.to three years.

  

7. 7. Minimum wage laws contribute to a higher Minimum wage laws contribute to a higher unemployment rate byunemployment rate by

a) raising wages above the market clearing level in some a) raising wages above the market clearing level in some labor markets.labor markets.

b) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in some b) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in some labor markets.labor markets.

c) Raising wages above the market clearing level in all labor c) Raising wages above the market clearing level in all labor markets.markets.

d) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in all d) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in all labor markets.labor markets.

  

•   

8. 8. Output and the unemployment rate areOutput and the unemployment rate are

a) positively related.a) positively related.

b) Not related in the short run.b) Not related in the short run.

c) Not related neither in the long run nor in the short run.c) Not related neither in the long run nor in the short run.

d) Negatively related.d) Negatively related.

9. 9. If aggregate supply increases and aggregate demand If aggregate supply increases and aggregate demand remains unchanged,remains unchanged,

a) there will be a positive relationship between the price a) there will be a positive relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output.level and the level of aggregate output.

b) there will be a negative relationship between the price b) there will be a negative relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output.level and the level of aggregate output.

c) there will be no systematic relationship between the c) there will be no systematic relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output.price level and the level of aggregate output.

d) the price level will remain unchanged, but aggregate d) the price level will remain unchanged, but aggregate output will decrease.output will decrease.

  

10. 10. In the long run, the Phillips curve will be vertical at In the long run, the Phillips curve will be vertical at the natural rate of unemployment if the natural rate of unemployment if

a) long-run aggregate demand curve is vertical at potential a) long-run aggregate demand curve is vertical at potential GDP.GDP.

b) The long-run aggregate demand curve is horizontal at the b) The long-run aggregate demand curve is horizontal at the natural rate of inflation.natural rate of inflation.

c) The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at c) The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at potential GDP.potential GDP.

d) The long-run supply curve is horizontal at the natural rate d) The long-run supply curve is horizontal at the natural rate of inflation.of inflation.