【平成25年度】地球の持続可能性と地域の持続可能性 / global sustainability and...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Sustainability and
Local Sustainability@EcoLead
Itaru Yasui, Prof.Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo
Former Vice Rector, United Nation University
President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation
http://www.yasuienv.net/1
Bankruptcy of the Earth
Published December in 2012
To provide information to have an insightinto non-sustainable future of the Earth
Coauthor with 8 researchers below,
Seita Emori NIESHiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of TokyoAyako Sonoda Cre-en, PresidentKoumei Halada NIMSMiki Baba Nikkei EcologyJunichi Fujino NIESHiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. YokohamaYuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo
2
What is your evaluation? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious,
2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable
Climate Change/Extreme Whether
Loss of Biological Diversity
Depletion of Metal Resources
Depletion of Fossil Fuel
Explosion of Population/Food Issues
Environmental Pollution Issues
Not Enough Budget to Handle Issues
3
Chapter 1.
Local Bankruptcy &
Global Sustainability
4
5
Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2
Coral Reef?
Guano in Nauru
6
Guano manure is an effective fertilizerdue to its high levels of phosphorusand nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.
Guano from Republic of Nauru
2 million tons every year
Amount decreased from 1989
100 million tons of guano mined
High income & No income tax
Free electricity
Free medical care and free education fee
No cooking, always eat outside
Laborers mainly from China
Economy 100% dependence on export
Depleted from 2000
Job less rate 90% No intention to work7
2012 Drought in USA
8
East Part of Kansas, USA
9
10
West Part of Kansas, USA
11
Ogalla
la A
quife
r, Gra
te P
lanes, U
SA
++
++
Ogallala Aquifer, USA
It is difficult to say, “Yes, we are OK. We are different from Nauru.”
12
Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)
Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise
13
Sea Level Rise ~7 meters in 1000 years or more
Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People
Biosphere may become net carbon source
Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place
14
30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost
Temperature – History 1000years
15
Temperature differences were not so Big!
Mann et al. (2008)より
Little Glacier
Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere
Other Expression of Tipping Points
16
人間活動の圧力
θ Tipping Point=Recovery Force Becomes ZeroPressure
By Human Activities
θ
0 TP 90
Trends in Living Planet Index
17
Loss of BiodiversityClimate Change ⇒ Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae)⇒ Extinction of Species
A typical species becomes extinct within 10 million years of its first appearance
Homo sapiens will last 8 m Years
Global Scale Extinction Events
Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) ~66 Ma
Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) ~201 Ma
Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) ~252 Ma
Late Devonian (Late D) ~374 Ma
Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ~450 - 440 Ma
18
Number of Species (in thousand)
19
We know well!
Speed of Extinction
20
Global Scale Depletion of Underground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel
21
22
Degradation of Ore GradesOre Grades of Ni and Cu Mines(1885-2010)
Australia(%Cu)Australia(%Ni)Canda(%Cu)Canada(%Ni)USA(%Cu)
森口祐一氏提供
Ni
Cu
23
Recent Trend: Price goes up!
Commodity Price IndicesFoodRaw MaterialsEnergyMetals and Minerals
1990
24
By 2050 all reserve will be usedBy 2050 twice of reserve be usedBy 2050 exceed reserve base
Reserve BaseEstimated Use Accumulated
Already Mined
Reserve
原田幸明氏提供
25
Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > Fe > Au > Al > Ni
TMR = Total Material Requirement
Others
Zn
U
Rh
Pt
Pd
Sn
Ni
Al
Au
Fe
Cu
26
DevelopedCountries
Forests in DevelopingCountries
From MA=Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (UN 2001~2005)
~1950 1950~1990 ~2050
27
We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.
Used Midle EastOther
Deep Ocean300~1500m
Ultra Deep1500m~Ice Sea
EOR
Heavy
ShaleOil
Price $/barrel
Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production
Reserves in Billion Barrel
28
World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision
Figure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to
different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)
UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100 2
Low
High
Medium
“2052” by Jorgen Randers
“Megachange: The world in 2050
The Economist
Ours
29
World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision
Figure 2: Estimated and projected population by major area, medium
variant , 1950-2100 (billions)
Asia
Africa
North America
To b
e F
lat
Projected Population of Regions up to 2100
30
Fertility Rate is important
LatinAmerica
AfricaAsia
Oceania
North America Europe
Chapter 2.
Local Sustainability under the influence of
Climate Change
31
Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines
32
20日12時
22日09時
25日09時
World Economic Forum ダボス会議Global Risks 2013 Eighth Edition
Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal, Geopolitical, Economic, Technological and Environmental
10 risks from each field
Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from now
An Important Point=Cognitive Biases「認知バイアス」
Difficult to Overcome
Inevitable to overcome somehow33
34
Environmental
35
IPCC AR5 WGⅠRelation between
CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly
36
Allowance of
IPCC AR5 WGⅠ
Integrated Assessment Model
Best Available Scenario?
CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuelfor 2050 and 2100
Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃
Delay of some Tipping Elements
In order to this, with 9 B of population
In 2050 10 GtC/year Globally
Per capita emission 1.1 tC/year/capita
In 2100 4 GtC/year Globally
Per capita emission 0.25 tC/year/capita
37
cf. Currenly in Japan 2.7 tC/year/capita
38
Chapter 3. Local Risks
Agricultural Activities and Related Risks
Environmental Risks for Agriculture
Environmental Conditions for Agri.
Water supply・Temperature Change
Essential Elements N、P
Status of Soil
Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide
Environmental Changes to be considered
Change accompanied by Climate Change
Limitation of Natural Resources
Water/Soil Change caused by Human Activities
Feelings of Consumers 39
40
Amount of Stream Flow 2081 to 2100From IPCC AR5 2013
Issues in Locations
Location and Availability of Water
Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change
Ground Water has different Characteristics
Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry.
In Japan, not so much difference.
Temperature will affect the most suitable agri. products.
Special Products in the area will be affected.
Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano?
Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some changes.
41In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.
Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier
Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir
In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture
Climate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture
This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area
Adaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture
42
43
Fertilizer Issue Nitrogen Fertilizer
Harbor-Bosch Process’s success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen
Huge Energy Consumption
More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption
Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization
Pollutant to Underground Water
Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and River Water
Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty Fields
MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer
44
20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収(単位面積当たりの収穫量)の増加にある
フランスの小麦 出展 Michel & FAO
0
2
4
6
8
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
単収
(t/ha)
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton)
Harbor demonstrated the processin the summer of 1909.
Ammonia was first manufactured on an industrial scale in 1913.And replaced "Chile saltpetre“for munitions used in World War 1 (1914-1918).
川島博之氏提供
So called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha).
French Wheat 出展 Michel & FAO
0
2
4
6
8
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
単収
(t/ha)
川島博之氏提供
Phosphorous Fertilizer
P as Phosphate
Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids.
Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth
P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance.
F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.12 in the scale of abundance.
47
Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17
1位 酸素 Oxygen 46%
2位 ケイ素 Silicon 28%
3位 アルミニウム Aluminum 8%
4位 鉄 Iron 5%
5位 カルシウム Calcium 4%
6位 ナトリウム Sodium 3%
7位 カリウム Potassium 2%
8位 マグネシウム Magnesium 2%
9位 チタン Titanium 0.5%
10位 水素 Hydrogen 0.15%
11位 リン Phosphorus 0.1%
12位 マンガン Manganese 0.1%
13位 フッ素 Fluorine 0.1%
14位 バリウム Barium 0.05%
15位 炭素 Carbon 0.03%
16位 ストロンチウム Strontium 0.03%
17位 イオウ Sulfur 0.03%48
Sustainability of Soil
Maintenance and improvement of soil quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality.
Asian Rainforest are old and mineral poor whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich.
Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components.
49
Shortage in Food Supply? 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field
More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise
Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countries
Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply
Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia
Production of Wheat and other crops will decrease.
Local Temperature Change
Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply
Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move?
50
2. Severe safety requirement by citizens/consumers
GMO Issues for Soy, Corn etc.
Is it Safe?
Any environmental adverse side effects?
Any abrupt change in productivity of crop?
As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have “Zero Risk” environment without any Agrichemicals.
Yield may be go down.
Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human being, is it safe for insects to help pollination?
51
Adaptation with Skilled Forecast
Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase
Temperature will go up to some extent
Agricultural Suitability of certain place will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture.
CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing effect
Area of farming land is about half of land suitable for agriculture.
If enough farmers in the new agricultural land, global supply of food will be enough.
52
It is a good strategy to have long perspectives
of the global changeas possible as we can, if we try to prepare forunexpected changes of
local situation.
53
Theoretical Goal
“To realize Steady State of the Earth in 2100.”
Three Conditions
1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount renewed naturally.
2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly.
3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth.
54
Practical Goal
“ Almost All Energy only from renewable resources”
This will be 90% achievement to the theoretical goal.
It means the life of natural resources will be extended about 10 times.
It can be said, “Human Life Reach A New Stage”.
55
Energy Innovation in the PastThe 5th will be the Ultimate One
Energy Innovation from the view point of Human History
1st=Started to Use Fire 500 thousand Years
2nd=Use Fossil Fuel from 1800
3rd=Use Electricity from 1880
4th=Other than Fossil Fuel=Nuclear Energy in 1943
=PV cells, Wind full operation not yet
5th=Steady State Use 2100 or so56
Energy Balance of the Earth
Solar Energy
xGlobal Energy Consump.
To SpaceReflection
Geothermal
Absorbed
Tidal
Moon
Kinetic EnergyPhotosynthesis
100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWFhttp://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf
58
2050 = too early to be realizedNo Technologies for full utilization of unstable electricity
Conclusions
No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience in spite of Limitation of the Earth.
Local Sustainability will be affected by global environmental changes including climate change, limitation of some resources and loss of biological diversities.
Crisis can be averted by prediction and management of environmental risks.
Possible solutions for global environmental issues must be discussed and proposed.
59