29534917 berth kuliah pelabuhan maritim bu erika i

7/30/2019 29534917 BERTH Kuliah Pelabuhan Maritim Bu Erika I

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CARGO FORECASTING

TECHNIQUESErika Buchari


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INTRODUCTION


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GENERAL OVERVIEW OF PORT ENGINEERING

Traffic Forecast

Terminal Capacity

1. Connection to Hinterland

2. Handling Equipment

3. Land Area Requirement

4. No. of Berths & Length

Concept of Terminal

Layout

(Land Use)

Ship types &

Dimensions

1. BerthingSpeed

2. Draught, Beam & Length

3. Ship Manoeuvradility

1. Turning Basins

2. Accsess Channels

3. Berthing & Mooring Load

Sum of Nautical

Requirements

1. Optimal Port Level

2. Optimal Location of Berths

3. Optimal Location of Breakwaters

4. Optimal Layout of Access Channels

1. Preliminary design2. Detail Design

BASIC DESIGN DATA & DATA

SURVEY :

- Geotechnical data

- Meteorological & Hidrographical

data

- Geological data

- Sea bottom character

- Sea Morphology

- Topographical data- Tidal data

- Wind data

- Wave propogation

- Other constraints

RESULTS :

- Desaign parameters & loads

- Mathematical model


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GROWING DEMAND


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Each transportation mode requiresspace for:

Access to the port area,

A place to parktransportation units,

both full and empty, A place to service the

units,

A place to load/unloadthe units,

A place to store loads inkeeping withtransportationarrival/departure rates.


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FORECASTING TECHNIQUES


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TRAFFIC FORECASTING

The essence of port traffic foresting :

What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ?

How will the commodities be packaged & carried ?

What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?

The most useful control statistic to each terminal :

The total tonnage handled

The average ship turn-round time

The average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship

The volume of traffic

The % of ship using cranes or ramps

The average ship length

The maximum draught


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Trend of Traffic:

The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic

has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will

continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.

In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be

one of the following:

a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP;b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been

deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national self-

sufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new

industry or of mines);

c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production orconsumption is occurring;

d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring

(from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to

overland transport, etc.).


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FORECASTING PROCEDURE

1. Analyze past traffic

1.1. Define route, etc.

1.2. Choose cargo classification

1.3. Tabulate

1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes

1.5. Extract seasonal effects


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2. Review market influences on traffic

and technological trends

2.1. Survey shippers opinions

(public and private)

2.2. Survey shipping companies plans

3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates

3.1. GNP- linked cargoes

3.2. Special cargoes

3.3. Regional/hinterland trends


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4. Investigate expected traffic-influencing

events

4.1. Industry plans

4.2. Agriculture plans

4.3. Transport links/transit policies


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5. Combine all information into alternative

growth and technology scenarios

5.1. Identify principal scenario themes

5.2. Combine all data for each theme

5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies

5.4. Write scenarios


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6. For each scenario, tabulate annual

forecast in each traffic class

6.1 Tonnages (weight tons)

6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships

6.3 Seasonal effects


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Define routes

Choose cargo

classes

Analyse

traffic records

Past trendsand

their causes

Past seasonal

effects

Consult

national

planners

Consult

industry

planners

Theoretical

future trends

Economic

indicators

Industri

targets

Probable

futuretraffic

Scenario

A

Scenario

B

Scenario

C

Annual

forecasttables

Future traffic events

Tonnages, technologyMarket survey

ShippersShipping

componies

FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE


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Collect latest

handling figures

and update anypast trends

Check with industry

planners for anyrecent changes

Check with port

users latest opinions

Deduce upper and

lower traffic growthrates

Tabulate high and

low forecasts forthe whole life of

the investment

Check that the

specific traffic

for which the

investment isproposed fits into

the overall plan

for the zone / terminal

13

4

5 6

2

FIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTING PROCEDURE

Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investments


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RECORDING OF TRAFFICDENSITIES-CARGO VOLUMES

The recording of traffic densities and cargo volumes shouldgive a detailed account of Cargo and passenger handling

by day of week, hour of day, Mode of transportation to and

from the port, for the following:

Oceangoing tramp ships

Foreign liner ships Domestic liner ships

Ferries

Trucks

Buses Railway

Possibly aircraft


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The annual turnover in the port should be if

possible be subdivided into the following

categories:

Bulk/general cargo

Trans-shipment ship/ship

Trans-shipment ship/rail

Goods carried by coastal

ships/tramps

Goods/general cargo

handled at terminal

Storage time

Type of storage

Customs clearance


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Commodities should be described in detail :

Type of cargo

Present and potential cargo

tonnage and volume

Frequency of cargo arrival

Origin and destination of cargo

Times of loading and discharging

Space requirements for cargo

Cargo handling rate/time of

storage

Commodity classification

Cargo handling operations

analysis

Storage requirements (cold and

warm)


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It is essential to specify if the goodsrequire special handling equipment, such

as ;

Loading and unloading equipment.

Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary).

Fork lift truck requirement.


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Groups of goods

1. Agricultural products

2. Coal, other solid material fuels

3. Petroleum and petroleum products

4. Ore and waste of ore and steel

5. Metal products

6. Cement, building materials

7. Chemicals, fertilizers

8. Machinery, manufactured articles


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Classical cargoes

Liquid and dry bulk cargoes

1. Building materials

2. Petroleum and derivatives3. Ores

4. Chemicals

5. Fertilizers, etc


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Traffic by ship:

The conveyors for freight flow to move by the waterway are the

ships. The movement of the ships makes up the traffic on the

waterway one of the specialties for the waterway traffic modeling

is that there are great differences in the conveyors dimensions.

The deadweight tonnage of the ships in Belgium varies from 250

tons to 9000 tons. It is interested to know the percentage of thefreights transported by the ships with various deadweight

tonnage.

Some following figure show the traffic volume with the indices of:

number of trips

ship sailing distance

tonnage moved

ton. Km


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Selected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft

454,0001500935195302,0001000926175

Galons*)Capacity (tons)Liquid Cargo

(Tank) Barges

1500935195

1000926175

Capacity (tons)Covered Dry

cargo Barges

3000950290

1500930195

350926175Capacity (tons)Open HopperBarges

13501240130

10001138120

35093090

Capacity (tons)Scows

191036366

101040257

Capacity Railroad carsCarfloats1200835195

900730130

350626110

Capacity (tons)Deck barges

2000 to 450014 to 1530 to 34125 to 150

1200 to 350012 to 1425 to 3095 to 105

800 to 120010 to 112490

350 to 650821 to 2365 to 80

HorsepowerTugboats 4000 to 60008.640160

2000 to 4000834142

1000 to 20007.630117

HorsepowerTowboat

Draft (ft)Breadth (ft)Length


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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

1. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine

the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basisgoing back for at least three years. List the major cargos handled

in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or

discharge, and by major cargo class?

2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the

identification of the potential users and the transport being used

for the various commodities?

3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?

4. Port A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of

100,000 and 40,000 units per year respectively. When both ports

are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the

standard level of quayside activity associated with its own

hinterland traffic. In case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at

port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. In case

(c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level

of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder

services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).


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DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

5. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that

affect the traffic forecast?

6. For estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the

ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, whatare the important items should be considered?

7. What should or should not be done in helping people to

carry out their own forecasting?

TABLE


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TABLE

SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1985)

Import (a)( in thousand tons )

Origin Country

South West Europe South East Asia Japan

AmericaNorw

egiaSwedia

Holland

German

British

French

Total Malaysia

Singapure

Indonesia

Philipine

Total

Liquid Bulk-CPO-Petroleum product-Sulphur (b)-Vegetable oilDry Bulk-Bricks-Iron Seed-Sulphur (b)-Cement (s)-Grains

-Others

Containers Load dan ro/ro (c)-Celular Ship-Conventional Ship-Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load-Palletized Tin-Iron and steel product-Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk-Sacked Wheat-Sacked Cement

-Sacked Fertilizer-Fresh Fruit-Vehicles-Machinery-General Cargo

(a) Main Comm odit ies figu red is the ones that need separate estimation in single po rt. (The list is not complete)

(b) Those comm odit ies should be div ided into di f ferent traff ic category according to transpor t mode

(c) ISO Containers and Ro /ro shou ld be Noted in ton and TEUs

TABLE


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SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS

Import (a)( in thousand tons )

Scenario A Scenario B

1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000 1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000

Liquid Bulk- CPO- Petroleum product- Sulphur (b)- Vegetable oilDry Bulk- Bricks- Iron Seed- Sulphur (b)- Cement (s)- Grains- Others

Containers Load dan ro/ro (c)- Celular Ship- Conventional Ship- Ro/ro ShipPalletized Load- Palletized Tin- Iron and steel product- Other unpalletized cargoBreak-bulk- Sacked Wheat

- Sacked Cement- Sacked Fertilizer- Fresh Fruit- Vehicles- Machinery- General Cargo

(a) Main Comm odit ies figu red is the ones that need separate estimation in s ingle port. (The list is not c omplete)

(b) Those comm odit ies should be div ided into di f ferent traff ic category according to transpor t mode

(c) ISO Containers and Ro /ro shou ld be Noted in ton and TEUs


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EXAMPLE

REGRESION LINE


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Example:From 8 zone, it is known the trip production per day (Y)and ships (X) as shown in the table.

No of Zone Trip Production per dayThe number of ships

available

1 500 200

2 300 50

3 1300 500

4 200 100

5 400 100

6 1200 100

7 900 300

8 1000 400


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Find Regression Model, by least square Method in order toget prediction the Y and X ?Solution :

XY X2 XY

200 500 40000 100000

50 300 2500 15000

500 1300 250000 650000

100 200 10000 20000

100 400 10000 40000

100 1200 10000 120000

300 900 90000 270000

400 1000 160000 400000

1750 5800 572500 1615000


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Formula for Least Square Method to find the best fit line ofRegression line.

( )22

2

XXn

XY

X

Y

X

A

-

-=

( )( ) ( )( )

( ) ( ) 323,717505725008

161500017505800572500

A 2=

-

-=

( )

-

-=

22X

X

n

YXXYnB

1.825(1750)(572500)8

(5800)(1750)(1615000)8B

2=

-

-=


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Y = A + BX

Y = 323,7 + 1,825X

Then,Regression line is :

regresion line

y = 0.2716x + 21.863

R2

= 0.4957

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 500 1000 1500

trip production

No

ofShip

Series1

Linear (Series1)


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thankyou

29534917 berth kuliah pelabuhan maritim bu erika i

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