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TRANSCRIPT
|
600588
BIP
1417682.08%32019
54.38
7,703 8,510 9,110 10,973 14,504
21.4% 10.5% 7.1% 20.5% 32.2%
() 612 1,183 968 1,241 1,609
57.3% 93.3% -18.2% 28.2% 29.7%
EPS 0.19 0.36 0.30 0.38 0.49
P/E 181.5 93.9 114.8 89.6 69.1
P/B 9.9 11.9 10.7 9.9 11.0
|
2 |
1.1 ............................................. 8
1.4 ................................................................................... 17
1.5 ........................................ 21
2.1 SaaS .................. 23
2.2 .............................................................. 24
.................................................... 26
3.2 ........................................................................ 29
3.4 ........................................................................ 33
ERP ERP 360 ........... 34
......................................................................................................................... 39
......................................................................................................................... 43
|
3 |
9 ............................................................................................. 10
10 .................................................................................... 10
12% ................................................................................ 10
13% ......................................................... 10
14 ....................................................................................... 11
15 .................................................................. 11
16 ...................................................................................................... 12
17 ................................................ 12
20 2019 ........................................................... 14
21 ....................................................................................... 14
23 ....................................................................................... 15
24 ....................................................................................... 15
26 ................................................................................ 15
28/ ............................................................. 16
29/ ............................................................. 16
30/ ............................................................. 16
31 ........................................................................................... 16
32 357 50.14%80.11% .................. 17
33NC Cloud ..................................................................................................... 17
34U8 Cloud .................................................................................................................... 18
35Yonsuite ............................................................................................................ 18
36iuap5.0 ....................................................................................................... 19
37NC6 .............................................................................................................. 20
38U8+ ............................................................................................................... 20
39 ........................................................................................... 21
41 .......................................................................................................... 22
43 ..................................................................... 24
451960-2019 GDP ......................................... 25
462017-2019 .......................................................................... 25
|
4 |
50 SaaS ERP ...................................................................................... 26
51 ......................................................................... 27
52 ........................................ 27
53 ................................................... 28
55YonBIP ......................................................................................................... 28
562010 2020 ERP ...................................................................... 30
57 ............................................................................................... 33
59ORCLE SAP1988-2019 ................................ 37
60 1998-2019 ............................................ 37
612013Q1-2020Q3 SAP ................ 37
1 ............................................................................................... 7
3 ............................................................................................. 23
5 .................................................................................................... 30
6 ................................................................................................ 31
8 2018-2020 ............................................................................. 34
92018-2020 ......................................................................................... 34
10 ............................................................................................................. 36
12 230.4-511.7 ....................... 39
13 ......................................................................... 40
14 ..................................................................... 41
15 ................................................................. 42
16 54.38 ............................................................................ 42
17 .................................................................................................. 43
18 .................................................................................................. 43
70.93%70.84%70.79%
+
2020-2022 74.8%69.6%64.6%
56.00%56.00%56.00%
3
1500 SaaS
54.38
|
6 |
++
1988
BIP
43.57%
3.94%2.47%
2019 9.893.814.69 +19.36%
10.72%7.63%
2.0 ERP 3.0
2001 3.33 2011 41.22 2010 +38.38%
2011-2015 2015
+1.76%2019
85.10 10.46% 13.21 +63.09%2020
|
9 |
5 2010-2020Q3 6 2010-2020Q3
2019
Q2 20.61 +64.56%Q4 35.01 +106.39%
7 8
2019 51.95 -6.90%2016
2016 92.95%2020Q3 51.61% 41.34
2020Q3 29.89%
)
yoy
()
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
11
wind wind
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2.29%
6.45% 11.04%
23.15% 29.89%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
|
11 |
14
wind
1988-1997 1.0 1988 8
ERP
ERP
1998-2013 2.0 1998 ERP 2001
2001 ERP
2002 SAP2007
5
ERP
2011
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
yoy%
2010
2014-2019 3.0 2014 iUAP
2015 “”“”
2017-2019 U8 CloudNC CloudYonSuite
2020 - 3.0-II 8 YonBIP
2020 46.19
-7.78%+76.4%+102.6%
16
2010
2014
2015
2015 6 70.85
2017-2019 U8 CloudNC CloudYonSuite
3.0
17
wind
wind
21 ERP ERP
2007 -2010
ROE 2010 ERP
2015-2016
ROE ROE
ROE
wind
222019 34.05%
2019 14176 82.08%
29.85%
29.33%
29.76% 31.48%
33.18% 34.15%
31.65% 35.12%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
/
/
2019 52.71%
wind wind
2019
29.09% 15.53%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(ORACLE)
0 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
)
272019 28/
wind wind
29/ 30/
wind wind
31
wind
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
|
17 |
ISO20000IT
32 357 50.14%80.11%
wind
1.4
18
U8 cloud ERP
|
18 |
2021 03 10
HRU U
34U8 Cloud
YonSuite ISV
API
YonSuite
“”
2021 03 10
Iuap5.0 PaaS iuap3.0 5.0
“3+2+1”
iuap5.0
YonBIP PaaS iuap“2020 ”
C2BE2MDDE
RTE
NC6 15 68
7 23
|
20 |
37NC6
U U8+
“ + ”
T+T1T3 T6
2 T
T3
500
9% SaaS
|
22 |
2020 SaaS
ERPCRMHR
BI “2020 SaaS ”
SaaS
543.09
41
wind
SaaS
|
23 |
2.1 SaaS
3
+”
”
2020 “”
2017-2019
2018-2020
“————
”
“”
“”
SaaS SaaS
SaaS
|
24 |
2.2
Frost & Sullivan 2019
10.5% 49.4%
Frost & Sullivan Frost & Sullivan
1960 GDP
2019 GDP
10261 2019
66.10% 2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
SaaS ) SaaSyoy yoy
13.1 17.3 24.1 33.9 47 62.7 81.3 102.9125.6147.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
|
25 |
451960-2019 GDP
2.3 ERP
ERP ERP
ERP
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP() yoy
54.70% 58.60% 66.10%
45.30% 41.40% 33.90%
47 ERP 48 ERP
ERPSaaS ERPERP2018
ERP ERP ERP
49 ERP 50 SaaS ERP
3.1 YonBIP3.0,
ERP
yoy
ERP
yoy
51
15Q416Q417Q4
18Q4 2019Q4
21 11.87
52
yoy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 18Q1 18Q3 19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3
|
28 |
53 54 2020Q2
YonBIP
2020 8 YonBIP YonBIP
5G
PaaS iuap
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
qoq
|
29 |
YonBIP 3.0
ERP 1.0 “”
2.0 “ ERP ” 3.0 “
”
+
POC
++ License
IT IT IT
3.2
562010 2020 ERP
58.1 2019 6.88 627.32
9.26%
5
2020 9 23 “2020
|
31 |
”
2019 1 NCC PostgreSQL 2019
9 NCC GaussDB 2020 3
NCC ERP NC cloud
U8
ERP
201205 “—”
“—”
“”
IaaS
2018 ERP-U8 cloud
ERP
201801
‘’,”U8 cloud
GaussDB OLTP Oracle
9 NC Cloud+GaussDB
201908 U8 cloud NC CloudPLM
PLM
|
32 |
“”
“
”
IDC2019
25%53.3% 1-3
5G
2020 11
“2019
2019 2021 20%2022
30%2022 1470469
983663
132314 2022 2023
10%
|
34 |
8 2018-2020
2016 2018
20% 2016
2019 30% 2016
2020 40%
69 2019 “”“
”2020 “”“
” 10% 2019 “
”“”2021 “”
“” 20%
2019 “”“”
2021 “”“”
20% 2019 “”“
”2022 “”“”
30%
20% 2016 2019
30% 2016
2020 40%
69 2019 “”“
”2020 “”“”
10% 2019 “”“
”2021 “”“
” 20%
2022 1,470,469 2022
983,663 2022
132,314 2022
2023 10%
wind
360
2020 2 4 SaaS SaaS 7914
SaaS 21943 SaaS
SaaS
SaaS 2019 Salesforce 132
|
35 |
SaaS 243.5 salesforce
SaaS
GDP 2019
GDP 15.76% GDP SaaS
581960-2019 GDP
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP()
GDP()
10
SAP ORACLE
NC Cloud U8 cloud Yonsuite S/4 HANA
cloud
SAP
—— ——
2019
2019
2019
PE 203.54 2111.3 26.72 17.32
PS 18.06 24.81 4.66 4.53
1466.36 746.17 9943.2168 11595.1305
SAP2019
2130.97 ORACLE 2741.44 85.10
59ORCLE SAP1988-2019
2020 Q3SAP 160.44
612013Q1-2020Q3 SAP
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ORACLE() SAP(
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
yoy
2023 SaaS 1358.1 ERP
SaaS 44%
ERP
20% 15% 10%
ERP 55% 50% 45%
SaaSERP 1858.7 1365.8 984.3
SaaS ERP 35% 30% 25%
SaaS ERP 650.5 409.7 246.1
2019 SaaS ERP 44% 12%
93710000900 2000
|
39 |
(5000 900
15% 20% 25%
/ 5
30% 35% 40%
2000
/ 0.2
30% 30% 30%
28.64% 43.65% 60.61%
70.93%70.84%70.79%
13
5610.49 5246.91 4427.31 3555.98 2952.56
yoy 9.32% -6.48% -15.62% -19.68% -16.97%
72.83% 61.66% 48.60% 32.41% 20.36%
1695.42 1487.90 1286.84 1036.92 862.39
3915.07 3759.01 3140.47 2519.07 2090.17
72.71% 67.52% 56.37% 39.52% 25.72%
69.78% 71.64% 70.93% 70.84% 70.79%
1
2
3
4
+
2020-2022
14
850.00 1,970.23 3,444.28 5,841.57 9,614.39
yoy 107.8% 131.8% 74.8% 69.6% 64.6%
1 1.42 1.85 2.37 2.99 3.70
yoy 0.37% 30.01% 28.00% 26.00% 24.00%
5.70 9.85 13.24 17.65 23.34
yoy
yoy 111.90% 124.66% 72.00% 68.00% 64.00%
2 3.10 9.29 15.72 24.17 35.12
yoy 137.36% 199.35% 69.18% 53.72% 45.30%
1,224.00 1,571.00 1,950.00 2,359.50 2,760.62
yoy
yoy 47.37% 284.21% 110.00% 86.00% 70.00%
297.50 857.74 1515.48 2570.29 4230.33
552.50 1,112.49 1,928.79 3,271.28 5,384.06
10.26% 19.98% 34.62% 51.32% 66.26%
65.00% 56.46% 56.00% 56.00% 56.00%
3
|
42 |
15
1,243.00 1,292.51 1,238.64 1,575.93 1,937.09
yoy 54.88% 3.98% -4.17% 27.23% 22.92%
16.14% 15.19% 13.60% 14.36% 13.36%
326.10 596.60 737.05 992.32 1286.05
916.90 695.91 501.60 583.61 651.04
17.03% 12.50% 9.00% 9.16% 8.01%
73.77% 53.84% 40.50% 37.03% 33.61%
171.10 -1.70 -132.17 -216.67 -325.27
13.77% -0.13% -10.67% -13.75% -16.79%
1 155.00 650.51 949.74 1329.64 1781.72
yoy 80.23% 319.68% 46.00% 40.00% 34.00%
2.01% 7.64% 10.43% 12.12% 12.28%
46.50 195.15 284.92 398.89 534.52
30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
2 1088.00 641.99 288.90 246.28 155.37
yoy 51.74% -40.99% -55.00% -14.75% -36.91%
14.12% 7.54% 3.17% 2.24% 1.07%
870.40 500.75 216.67 184.71 116.53
80.00% 78.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00%
1778.74 54.38
16 54.38
g 3.50% Ke 8.52%
β 1.40 WACC 7.00%
Rf% 3.20% 1778.74
Rm% 7.00% 54.38
Tx% 7.00%
17
g
WACC 2.17% 2.39% 2.63% 2.89% 3.18% 3.50% 3.85% 4.24% 4.66% 5.12% 5.64%
4.35% 88.85 97.81 110.29 128.75 158.68 215.20 360.87 1568.25 / / /
4.78% 74.53 80.56 88.61 99.81 116.39 143.26 194.00 324.79 1408.80 / /
5.26% 63.43 67.63 73.04 80.26 90.30 105.17 129.26 174.77 292.05 1264.14 /
5.79% 54.62 57.61 61.36 66.21 72.67 81.67 94.98 116.56 157.32 262.36 1132.96
6.37% 47.49 49.65 52.31 55.67 60.01 65.79 73.83 85.74 105.04 141.49 235.43
7.00% 41.61 43.20 45.13 47.51 50.51 54.38 59.54 66.73 77.36 94.59 127.14
7.70% 36.71 37.89 39.31 41.03 43.15 45.83 49.28 53.88 60.29 69.76 85.13
8.47% 32.58 33.47 34.52 35.78 37.31 39.20 41.58 44.65 48.75 54.45 62.88
9.32% 29.07 29.74 30.53 31.46 32.58 33.94 35.62 37.73 40.46 44.09 49.16
10.25% 26.06 26.57 27.16 27.86 28.69 29.68 30.88 32.37 34.24 36.66 39.88
11.28% 23.46 23.85 24.30 24.82 25.44 26.17 27.05 28.11 29.43 31.08 33.22
wind2021 3 10 2020-2022 PS 16.2614.04
11.04 ERP 2021 15 PS
2021 50.31
18
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
688095.SH 245.08 117.98 6.82 9.40 17.29 12.56
300378.SZ 23.10 61.51 16.14 19.31 23.77 3.81 3.18 2.59
002410.SZ 62.81 744.79 50.36 62.38 14.79 11.94
0268.HK 20.97 727.36 34.02 42.48 54.41 25.49 20.41 15.94
600570.SH 84.77 885.08 43.75 53.72 64.48 20.23 16.48 13.73
wind
2
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
5,531 7,147 8,442 9,279 11,354 7,703 8,510 9,110 10,973 14,504
1,964 1,914 1,901 2,249 3,455 2,315 2,942 3,539 4,600 6,379
22 23 41 44 62 110 113 129 153 200
823 1,084 1,072 993 1,049 1,649 1,634 1,685 1,756 2,176
8,340 10,168 11,456 12,566 15,920 2,766 3,019 2,651 3,105 4,003
2,519 2,510 2,489 2,412 2,312 110 118 105 60 46
1,703 1,782 1,709 1,731 1,741 /- (189) (720.52) (243) (293) (365)
917 870 814 753 646 943 1,405 1,243 1,594 2,066
1,742 2,208 2,145 2,132 2,134 7 (1) (1) (1) (1)
6,881 7,370 7,157 7,028 6,833 950 1,404 1,242 1,593 2,065
15,221 17,538 18,613 19,594 22,753 140 83 162 207 268
3,156 4,236 3,614 3,669 3,839 810 1,321 1,081 1,386 1,797
4,009 4,746 5,531 5,717 6,995 198 138 113 145 188
182 130 150 154 145 612 1,183 968 1,241 1,609
7,348 9,112 9,295 9,540 10,979
172 45 45 45 45 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
49 87 66 67 74
221 132 111 112 119 ROE 9.9% 17.2% 12.8% 15.0% 17.3%
7,569 9,244 9,406 9,653 11,098 70.0% 65.4% 61.1% 58.1% 56.0%
1,918 2,504 2,504 2,504 3,271 12.2% 16.5% 13.6% 14.5% 14.2%
7,652 8,294 9,207 9,941 11,655 10.5% 15.5% 11.9% 12.6% 12.4%
15,221 17,538 18,613 19,594 22,753
21.4% 10.5% 7.1% 20.5% 32.2%
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 39.5% 48.9% -11.5% 28.2% 29.6%
810 1,321 1,081 1,386 1,797 57.3% 93.3% -18.2% 28.2% 29.7%
245 342 305 331 350
110 118 105 60 46 49.7% 52.7% 50.5% 49.3% 48.8%
878 (248) 627 (110) (31) 1.13 1.23 1.23 1.32 1.45
2,043 1,533 2,118 1,666 2,162 1.13 1.11 1.23 1.31 1.44
(139) (531) 20 (159) (121)
291 348 0 0 0 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
152 (183) 20 (159) (121)
(570) 774 (675) (19) 117 EPS 0.19 0.36 0.30 0.38 0.49
(78) (851) (168) (651) (83) BVPS 2.01 2.19 2.44 2.62 3.08
(118) (78) 0 0 0
(767) (155) (843) (670) 33 P/E 181.5 93.9 114.8 89.6 69.1
P/B 9.9 11.9 10.7 9.9 11.0
1,428 1,195 1,295 837 2,075 P/S 14.4 13.1 12.2 10.1 7.7
—
6-12 5% 20%
6-12 -5% 5%
6-12 5
59 303
6008 10C
QQBBS
600588
BIP
1417682.08%32019
54.38
7,703 8,510 9,110 10,973 14,504
21.4% 10.5% 7.1% 20.5% 32.2%
() 612 1,183 968 1,241 1,609
57.3% 93.3% -18.2% 28.2% 29.7%
EPS 0.19 0.36 0.30 0.38 0.49
P/E 181.5 93.9 114.8 89.6 69.1
P/B 9.9 11.9 10.7 9.9 11.0
|
2 |
1.1 ............................................. 8
1.4 ................................................................................... 17
1.5 ........................................ 21
2.1 SaaS .................. 23
2.2 .............................................................. 24
.................................................... 26
3.2 ........................................................................ 29
3.4 ........................................................................ 33
ERP ERP 360 ........... 34
......................................................................................................................... 39
......................................................................................................................... 43
|
3 |
9 ............................................................................................. 10
10 .................................................................................... 10
12% ................................................................................ 10
13% ......................................................... 10
14 ....................................................................................... 11
15 .................................................................. 11
16 ...................................................................................................... 12
17 ................................................ 12
20 2019 ........................................................... 14
21 ....................................................................................... 14
23 ....................................................................................... 15
24 ....................................................................................... 15
26 ................................................................................ 15
28/ ............................................................. 16
29/ ............................................................. 16
30/ ............................................................. 16
31 ........................................................................................... 16
32 357 50.14%80.11% .................. 17
33NC Cloud ..................................................................................................... 17
34U8 Cloud .................................................................................................................... 18
35Yonsuite ............................................................................................................ 18
36iuap5.0 ....................................................................................................... 19
37NC6 .............................................................................................................. 20
38U8+ ............................................................................................................... 20
39 ........................................................................................... 21
41 .......................................................................................................... 22
43 ..................................................................... 24
451960-2019 GDP ......................................... 25
462017-2019 .......................................................................... 25
|
4 |
50 SaaS ERP ...................................................................................... 26
51 ......................................................................... 27
52 ........................................ 27
53 ................................................... 28
55YonBIP ......................................................................................................... 28
562010 2020 ERP ...................................................................... 30
57 ............................................................................................... 33
59ORCLE SAP1988-2019 ................................ 37
60 1998-2019 ............................................ 37
612013Q1-2020Q3 SAP ................ 37
1 ............................................................................................... 7
3 ............................................................................................. 23
5 .................................................................................................... 30
6 ................................................................................................ 31
8 2018-2020 ............................................................................. 34
92018-2020 ......................................................................................... 34
10 ............................................................................................................. 36
12 230.4-511.7 ....................... 39
13 ......................................................................... 40
14 ..................................................................... 41
15 ................................................................. 42
16 54.38 ............................................................................ 42
17 .................................................................................................. 43
18 .................................................................................................. 43
70.93%70.84%70.79%
+
2020-2022 74.8%69.6%64.6%
56.00%56.00%56.00%
3
1500 SaaS
54.38
|
6 |
++
1988
BIP
43.57%
3.94%2.47%
2019 9.893.814.69 +19.36%
10.72%7.63%
2.0 ERP 3.0
2001 3.33 2011 41.22 2010 +38.38%
2011-2015 2015
+1.76%2019
85.10 10.46% 13.21 +63.09%2020
|
9 |
5 2010-2020Q3 6 2010-2020Q3
2019
Q2 20.61 +64.56%Q4 35.01 +106.39%
7 8
2019 51.95 -6.90%2016
2016 92.95%2020Q3 51.61% 41.34
2020Q3 29.89%
)
yoy
()
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1
11
wind wind
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2.29%
6.45% 11.04%
23.15% 29.89%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
|
11 |
14
wind
1988-1997 1.0 1988 8
ERP
ERP
1998-2013 2.0 1998 ERP 2001
2001 ERP
2002 SAP2007
5
ERP
2011
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
yoy%
2010
2014-2019 3.0 2014 iUAP
2015 “”“”
2017-2019 U8 CloudNC CloudYonSuite
2020 - 3.0-II 8 YonBIP
2020 46.19
-7.78%+76.4%+102.6%
16
2010
2014
2015
2015 6 70.85
2017-2019 U8 CloudNC CloudYonSuite
3.0
17
wind
wind
21 ERP ERP
2007 -2010
ROE 2010 ERP
2015-2016
ROE ROE
ROE
wind
222019 34.05%
2019 14176 82.08%
29.85%
29.33%
29.76% 31.48%
33.18% 34.15%
31.65% 35.12%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
/
/
2019 52.71%
wind wind
2019
29.09% 15.53%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(ORACLE)
0 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
)
272019 28/
wind wind
29/ 30/
wind wind
31
wind
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
|
17 |
ISO20000IT
32 357 50.14%80.11%
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1.4
18
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|
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7 23
|
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|
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2020 SaaS
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BI “2020 SaaS ”
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543.09
41
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|
23 |
2.1 SaaS
3
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“————
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SaaS SaaS
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|
24 |
2.2
Frost & Sullivan 2019
10.5% 49.4%
Frost & Sullivan Frost & Sullivan
1960 GDP
2019 GDP
10261 2019
66.10% 2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
SaaS ) SaaSyoy yoy
13.1 17.3 24.1 33.9 47 62.7 81.3 102.9125.6147.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
|
25 |
451960-2019 GDP
2.3 ERP
ERP ERP
ERP
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP() yoy
54.70% 58.60% 66.10%
45.30% 41.40% 33.90%
47 ERP 48 ERP
ERPSaaS ERPERP2018
ERP ERP ERP
49 ERP 50 SaaS ERP
3.1 YonBIP3.0,
ERP
yoy
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51
15Q416Q417Q4
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21 11.87
52
yoy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 18Q1 18Q3 19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3
|
28 |
53 54 2020Q2
YonBIP
2020 8 YonBIP YonBIP
5G
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-30%
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qoq
|
29 |
YonBIP 3.0
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562010 2020 ERP
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|
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|
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|
34 |
8 2018-2020
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2020 2 4 SaaS SaaS 7914
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|
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SaaS 243.5 salesforce
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581960-2019 GDP
0%
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0
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20000
30000
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1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP()
GDP()
10
SAP ORACLE
NC Cloud U8 cloud Yonsuite S/4 HANA
cloud
SAP
—— ——
2019
2019
2019
PE 203.54 2111.3 26.72 17.32
PS 18.06 24.81 4.66 4.53
1466.36 746.17 9943.2168 11595.1305
SAP2019
2130.97 ORACLE 2741.44 85.10
59ORCLE SAP1988-2019
2020 Q3SAP 160.44
612013Q1-2020Q3 SAP
-20%
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40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
ORACLE() SAP(
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
yoy
2023 SaaS 1358.1 ERP
SaaS 44%
ERP
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ERP 55% 50% 45%
SaaSERP 1858.7 1365.8 984.3
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SaaS ERP 650.5 409.7 246.1
2019 SaaS ERP 44% 12%
93710000900 2000
|
39 |
(5000 900
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/ 5
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2000
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13
5610.49 5246.91 4427.31 3555.98 2952.56
yoy 9.32% -6.48% -15.62% -19.68% -16.97%
72.83% 61.66% 48.60% 32.41% 20.36%
1695.42 1487.90 1286.84 1036.92 862.39
3915.07 3759.01 3140.47 2519.07 2090.17
72.71% 67.52% 56.37% 39.52% 25.72%
69.78% 71.64% 70.93% 70.84% 70.79%
1
2
3
4
+
2020-2022
14
850.00 1,970.23 3,444.28 5,841.57 9,614.39
yoy 107.8% 131.8% 74.8% 69.6% 64.6%
1 1.42 1.85 2.37 2.99 3.70
yoy 0.37% 30.01% 28.00% 26.00% 24.00%
5.70 9.85 13.24 17.65 23.34
yoy
yoy 111.90% 124.66% 72.00% 68.00% 64.00%
2 3.10 9.29 15.72 24.17 35.12
yoy 137.36% 199.35% 69.18% 53.72% 45.30%
1,224.00 1,571.00 1,950.00 2,359.50 2,760.62
yoy
yoy 47.37% 284.21% 110.00% 86.00% 70.00%
297.50 857.74 1515.48 2570.29 4230.33
552.50 1,112.49 1,928.79 3,271.28 5,384.06
10.26% 19.98% 34.62% 51.32% 66.26%
65.00% 56.46% 56.00% 56.00% 56.00%
3
|
42 |
15
1,243.00 1,292.51 1,238.64 1,575.93 1,937.09
yoy 54.88% 3.98% -4.17% 27.23% 22.92%
16.14% 15.19% 13.60% 14.36% 13.36%
326.10 596.60 737.05 992.32 1286.05
916.90 695.91 501.60 583.61 651.04
17.03% 12.50% 9.00% 9.16% 8.01%
73.77% 53.84% 40.50% 37.03% 33.61%
171.10 -1.70 -132.17 -216.67 -325.27
13.77% -0.13% -10.67% -13.75% -16.79%
1 155.00 650.51 949.74 1329.64 1781.72
yoy 80.23% 319.68% 46.00% 40.00% 34.00%
2.01% 7.64% 10.43% 12.12% 12.28%
46.50 195.15 284.92 398.89 534.52
30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
2 1088.00 641.99 288.90 246.28 155.37
yoy 51.74% -40.99% -55.00% -14.75% -36.91%
14.12% 7.54% 3.17% 2.24% 1.07%
870.40 500.75 216.67 184.71 116.53
80.00% 78.00% 75.00% 75.00% 75.00%
1778.74 54.38
16 54.38
g 3.50% Ke 8.52%
β 1.40 WACC 7.00%
Rf% 3.20% 1778.74
Rm% 7.00% 54.38
Tx% 7.00%
17
g
WACC 2.17% 2.39% 2.63% 2.89% 3.18% 3.50% 3.85% 4.24% 4.66% 5.12% 5.64%
4.35% 88.85 97.81 110.29 128.75 158.68 215.20 360.87 1568.25 / / /
4.78% 74.53 80.56 88.61 99.81 116.39 143.26 194.00 324.79 1408.80 / /
5.26% 63.43 67.63 73.04 80.26 90.30 105.17 129.26 174.77 292.05 1264.14 /
5.79% 54.62 57.61 61.36 66.21 72.67 81.67 94.98 116.56 157.32 262.36 1132.96
6.37% 47.49 49.65 52.31 55.67 60.01 65.79 73.83 85.74 105.04 141.49 235.43
7.00% 41.61 43.20 45.13 47.51 50.51 54.38 59.54 66.73 77.36 94.59 127.14
7.70% 36.71 37.89 39.31 41.03 43.15 45.83 49.28 53.88 60.29 69.76 85.13
8.47% 32.58 33.47 34.52 35.78 37.31 39.20 41.58 44.65 48.75 54.45 62.88
9.32% 29.07 29.74 30.53 31.46 32.58 33.94 35.62 37.73 40.46 44.09 49.16
10.25% 26.06 26.57 27.16 27.86 28.69 29.68 30.88 32.37 34.24 36.66 39.88
11.28% 23.46 23.85 24.30 24.82 25.44 26.17 27.05 28.11 29.43 31.08 33.22
wind2021 3 10 2020-2022 PS 16.2614.04
11.04 ERP 2021 15 PS
2021 50.31
18
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
688095.SH 245.08 117.98 6.82 9.40 17.29 12.56
300378.SZ 23.10 61.51 16.14 19.31 23.77 3.81 3.18 2.59
002410.SZ 62.81 744.79 50.36 62.38 14.79 11.94
0268.HK 20.97 727.36 34.02 42.48 54.41 25.49 20.41 15.94
600570.SH 84.77 885.08 43.75 53.72 64.48 20.23 16.48 13.73
wind
2
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
5,531 7,147 8,442 9,279 11,354 7,703 8,510 9,110 10,973 14,504
1,964 1,914 1,901 2,249 3,455 2,315 2,942 3,539 4,600 6,379
22 23 41 44 62 110 113 129 153 200
823 1,084 1,072 993 1,049 1,649 1,634 1,685 1,756 2,176
8,340 10,168 11,456 12,566 15,920 2,766 3,019 2,651 3,105 4,003
2,519 2,510 2,489 2,412 2,312 110 118 105 60 46
1,703 1,782 1,709 1,731 1,741 /- (189) (720.52) (243) (293) (365)
917 870 814 753 646 943 1,405 1,243 1,594 2,066
1,742 2,208 2,145 2,132 2,134 7 (1) (1) (1) (1)
6,881 7,370 7,157 7,028 6,833 950 1,404 1,242 1,593 2,065
15,221 17,538 18,613 19,594 22,753 140 83 162 207 268
3,156 4,236 3,614 3,669 3,839 810 1,321 1,081 1,386 1,797
4,009 4,746 5,531 5,717 6,995 198 138 113 145 188
182 130 150 154 145 612 1,183 968 1,241 1,609
7,348 9,112 9,295 9,540 10,979
172 45 45 45 45 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
49 87 66 67 74
221 132 111 112 119 ROE 9.9% 17.2% 12.8% 15.0% 17.3%
7,569 9,244 9,406 9,653 11,098 70.0% 65.4% 61.1% 58.1% 56.0%
1,918 2,504 2,504 2,504 3,271 12.2% 16.5% 13.6% 14.5% 14.2%
7,652 8,294 9,207 9,941 11,655 10.5% 15.5% 11.9% 12.6% 12.4%
15,221 17,538 18,613 19,594 22,753
21.4% 10.5% 7.1% 20.5% 32.2%
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 39.5% 48.9% -11.5% 28.2% 29.6%
810 1,321 1,081 1,386 1,797 57.3% 93.3% -18.2% 28.2% 29.7%
245 342 305 331 350
110 118 105 60 46 49.7% 52.7% 50.5% 49.3% 48.8%
878 (248) 627 (110) (31) 1.13 1.23 1.23 1.32 1.45
2,043 1,533 2,118 1,666 2,162 1.13 1.11 1.23 1.31 1.44
(139) (531) 20 (159) (121)
291 348 0 0 0 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
152 (183) 20 (159) (121)
(570) 774 (675) (19) 117 EPS 0.19 0.36 0.30 0.38 0.49
(78) (851) (168) (651) (83) BVPS 2.01 2.19 2.44 2.62 3.08
(118) (78) 0 0 0
(767) (155) (843) (670) 33 P/E 181.5 93.9 114.8 89.6 69.1
P/B 9.9 11.9 10.7 9.9 11.0
1,428 1,195 1,295 837 2,075 P/S 14.4 13.1 12.2 10.1 7.7
—
6-12 5% 20%
6-12 -5% 5%
6-12 5
59 303
6008 10C
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