1. mayjune@nchu.edu.twmayjunejulychen@gmail.com

2. ? 3. 4. 2012 ()() 132,4813,9202.9683,3532,6973.2310,3264824.6743,4591,6843.8720,105260.1335,9012,5957.23PE,PP,PVC,PS,ABS5,576[2,056]BR,SBR,TPE422[217]PTA,EG,AN,CPL7,063[4,499] 5. GDP 20124.4(34) 12.6%GDP0.54GDP3.97% GDP 41028 0.3% 42 6. 7. 20096 95% 20004000 2008312 8. (LDPE)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 9. (HDPE)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 10. (VCM)0%5%10%15%20%25%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 11. (PVC)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 12. (PP)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,00019971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 13. (SM)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 14. (PS)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 15. (ABS)0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 16. (AN)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 17. (PTA)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 18. (EG)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 19. 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,000199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 20. 21. GDP 22. GDPGDP (final products) (intermediate products)GDP double countingGDPGDP: C+I+G+(X-M) 23. : C+I+G+(X-M) 200210,411,6396,237,5691,412,4512,057,650-43,8645,436,6424,688,809200310,696,2576,398,6041,416,4252,117,28212,3045,935,6115,183,969200411,365,2926,808,3821,444,8722,592,909100,1806,980,9876,562,038200511,740,2797,090,7391,463,2342,635,45132,4047,341,7056,823,254200612,243,4717,248,3441,469,2962,730,67046,2838,325,7177,576,839200712,910,5117,506,4671,521,1022,841,35314,4569,304,0618,276,928200812,620,1507,609,9951,563,6342,665,928160,3839,208,6538,588,443200912,481,0937,573,5821,619,9982,353,579-145,1807,799,1676,720,053201013,552,0997,924,5341,642,1012,888,204147,02810,001,1169,050,884201113,674,3468,234,6261,698,3602,843,488-7,03210,400,1699,495,265201214,042,1258,465,0981,739,5262,746,22228,44210,335,8019,272,96460.2812.3919.560.2073.6166.04 24. GDPGDP4.3%GDP ?GDPGDP( )GDP ( )( ) 25. GDP( ) () () 26. () 27. () 26.45%(2011)()2011 36.29%GDP 4.3%6775 33028.5% 10%GDP 28. 29. 30. 31. 2025 579(2.98%) 734(4.04%)2025 215324 202590% ()114%() 32. 4-1 20102025 ( 4.04%) ( 2.98%) 2010 4,273,461 4,202,883 2011 4,392,476 4,247,438 2012 4,509,506 4,285,961 2013 4,660,606 4,354,339 2014 4,816,173 4,422,790 2015 4,988,935 4,503,859 2016 5,183,356 4,601,820 2017 5,386,722 4,703,760 2018 5,598,127 4,808,568 2019 5,816,674 4,915,132 2020 6,051,861 5,032,730 2021 6,290,498 5,147,942 2022 6,528,058 5,256,003 2023 6,792,798 5,384,919 2024 7,052,571 5,502,291 2025 7,341,295 5,793,032 33. 2009233550312420400105%201023355031242042798%2013603550312469466101%: %=/?=+ 34. =/ 2009233550312420120350%2010233550312420128328%2013603550312469140335%: %300% 35. 1998 2005 2006 & 2008 2009 2010 2010 2012 2020 2000 2.23 10 2025 2000 (214 ) 2025 2000 (214 ) 2020 2005 2025 2000 OECD 1. 2. 3. : 36. ()200865 200973 98 16 7 37. 2020 200520252,000 2000450 (28%) 38. ? 39. 2006200720082009201015.816.29.516.39.821.622.715.719.814.520.222.119.022.811.9( )17.619.017.126.113.9BASF()30.129.125.628.630.3:%? 40. --GDPGDP?? ? 41. PSCS PQSDoWelfare 42. 365/5691121 43. ?()2012 1,000 ? 44. () ( ) 45. !