市场调查与预测
DESCRIPTION
市场调查与预测. 二 0 0 六年八月 沈阳理工大学 万 华 邮箱： [email protected] 电话： 13504997365. 市场调查与预测研究的内容. 市场调查基本原理 市场调查策划 市场调查方式 市场调查方法 市场调查资料整理 市场调查资料分析 市场预测基本原理 市场定性预测法 市场定量预测法. 案例. 案例一：从无到有 案例二：一个总统的营销 案例三：“红桃三先出”的背后. 案例讨论. 结论. 企业的生存与发展离不开市场。 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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=80.2+110.5+150.3=11.6 0.2+0.5+0.3
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=20000.360014000.57008000.2160146024000.248018000.6108012000.2240180018000.236012000.56006000.31801140
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=1533+1620+1311=14883
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i=1 2 3 n 2004 1~12 2005 1
X= Xin
1234567891011126050.45549.67576.9726854.54443.847
X=60+50.4+55+49.6+75+76.9+72+68+54.5+44+43.8+47=58 12
X=72+68+54.5+44+43.8+47=54.96
X=44+43.8+47=44.9 3
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X=1 Xin 1
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: 2000 2004 2005 2006
X 2005= Xn+1= Xn+ X 1 = 16805+12011 = 18006
X 2006= Xn+2= Xn+ X 2 = 16805+12012 = 19207
200020012002200320041200013150144501561016805115013001160119548051201
*
i=1 2 3 n 2004 1,2,3,4,5,6
X=x1f1+x2f2+ +xnfn= xifif1+f2+ +fn fi
X= xifi=172+268+354.5+444+543.8+647 =49.9fi1+2+3+4+5+6
*
Vi M =n-1 V2 V3 Vn = ( V2 V3 Vn)1/n-1M = fi Vf22 Vf33 Vfnn = ( Vf22 Vf33 Vfnn) 1/ fi
Vi =XiXi-1
M =1 fi Vi fi
M =1 Vi n- 1
*
n Xn M n+1 Xn+1= Xn M 2005
Vi Vififi Vi1200045.00--------2200151.751.150.06110.0613200260.551.170.06820.1364200370.241.160.06530.1955200484.291.200.07940.316
*
M = n-1 V2 V3 Vn = 5-11.15 1.17 1.16 1.20 = 1.17 M = fi Vf22 Vf33 Vfnn = 10 1.151 1.172 1.163 1.204 = 1.18 = (0.061+0.068+0.065+0.079) = 0.068 M = 1.17 =1/10(0.061+0.136+0.195+0.316)=0.071 M =1.18 X 2005= X 2004 M =84.29 1.17 = 98.62 X 2005= X 2004 M =84.29 1.18 = 99.46
M =1fi Vi fi
M =1 Vi n- 1
*
9.3
*
*
*
n n n n n n
*
1~12 1 n 3 5
t 1240----2252----3246246.00--4232243.33--5258245.33245.66240243.33245.67238245.33242.88248242.00243.29230238.67242.810240239.33239.211256242.00242.412236244.00242.0
*
n=3 , 1 244 ; n=5 , 1 242
Chart2
240
252
246246
232243.33
258245.33245.6
240243.33245.6
238245.33242.8
248242243.2
230238.67242.8
240239.33239.2
256242242.4
236244242
x
M(n=3)
M(n=5)
Sheet1
txM(n=3)M(n=5)
1240
2252
3246246
4232243.33
5258245.33245.6
6240243.33245.6
7238245.33242.8
8248242243.2
9230238.67242.8
10240239.33239.2
11256242242.4
12236244242
Sheet1
x
M(n=3)
M(n=5)
Sheet2
Sheet3
*
*
19991100----20001170----200112381169--200213091239--200313821310123920041453138113102005152714541382
*
19991100----20001170----200112381192--200213091262--200313821334128620041453140513582005152714781430
*
19991100----20001170----200112381192--200213091262--200313821334128620041453140513582005152714781430
*
*
*
2004 1~12 2005 1 0.1 0.5 0.9
=0.1=0.5=0.9151.351.351.351.3237.549.253.537.3327.947.635.728.8432.946.034.032.0548.246.241.146.6654.647.147.953.8752.047.659.852.2847.047.648.748.0942.347.045.542.91045.846.945.745.51143.946.644.844.11247.246.746.046.9
*
Chart1
51.351.351.351.3
37.549.253.537.3
27.947.635.728.8
32.9463432
48.246.241.146.6
54.647.147.953.8
5247.659.852.2
4747.648.748
42.34745.542.9
45.846.945.745.5
43.946.644.844.1
47.246.74646.9
= 0.1
= 0.5
= 0.9
Sheet1
151.351.351.351.3
237.549.253.537.3
327.947.635.728.8
432.9463432
548.246.241.146.6
654.647.147.953.8
75247.659.852.2
84747.648.748
942.34745.542.9
1045.846.945.745.5
1143.946.644.844.1
1247.246.74646.9
Sheet1
= 0.1
= 0.5
= 0.9
Sheet2
Sheet3
*
*
1999 ~2004 2005 =0.5
=0.5 =0.5 19991140140140.020002160150145.020013150150147.520024182166156.820035160163159.920046175169164.4
*
Chart5
140140140
160150145
150150147.5
182166156.8
160163159.9
175169164.4
= 0.5
= 0.5
Sheet1
151.351.351.351.3
237.549.253.537.3
327.947.635.728.8
432.9463432
548.246.241.146.6
654.647.147.953.8
75247.659.852.2
84747.648.748
942.34745.542.9
1045.846.945.745.5
1143.946.644.844.1
1247.246.74646.9
19991140140140
20002160150145
20013150150147.5
20024182166156.8
20035160163159.9
20046175169164.4
19991140140140
20002160150145
20013150150147.5
20024182166156.8
20035160163159.9
20046175169164.4
Sheet1
= 0.1
= 0.5
= 0.9
Sheet2
= 0.1
= 0.1
Sheet3
= 0.5
= 0.5
*
*
*
1993~2004,20052006=0.5,
199311997199719971997199422273213520662031.51995328142474.52270.321511996424452459.82365225819975459635282946.5260219986463640823514.33058.319997678054314472.63765.42000857925611.556424403.72001978436727.35884.75144.720021095058116.17694.86419.52003111282810472.19083.57751.520041215001273610909.39330.6
*
Chart2
1997
2273
2814
2445
4596
4636
6780
5792
7843
9505
12828
15000
xt
Sheet1
S(1)tS(2)tS(3)t
199311997199719971997
199422273213520662031.5
1995328142474.52270.32151
1996424452459.823652258
19975459635282946.52602
19986463640823514.33058.3
19997678054314472.63765.4
2000857925611.556424403.7
2001978436727.35884.75144.7
20021095058116.17694.86419.5
2003111282810472.19083.57751.5
200412150001273610909.39330.6
Sheet1
xt
Sheet2
xt
Sheet3
*
*
*
*
*
10.1
*
*
*
10.2
*
*
bx yxy
*
R
R -1 R +1 R=+1yx R=-1 yx R= 0 yx |R|0.7 |R| 0.3
*
95.45%
*
t = 00123 135 t = 0
*
xi yixiyixi2yi2199611.54.87.202.2523.044.65199721.85.710.263.2432.495.53199832.47.016.805.7649.007.29199943.08.324.909.0068.899.05200053.510.938.1512.25118.8110.51200163.912.448.3615.21153.7611.69200274.413.157.6419.36171.6113.15200384.813.665.2823.04184.9614.32200495.015.376.5025.00234.0914.91--30.391.1345.09115.111036.6591.10
*
*
XY
*
2005560
16.6720.78 (15.1118.23)95.45%
*
1998~200420052006
1998-335009-105001225000030002500001999-240004-80001600000035002500002000-125001-2500625000040002250000200105000002500000045002500002002145001450020250000500025000020032550041100030250000550002004365009195004225000060002500000315002814000152250000315003500000
*
*
20052006
65002837 70002837
*
10.3
*
y x1 x2
*
*
y x1 x2 1995~20042005
199542582010425162.5492.105491996912918214819.7630.5824199712516012525114413.552.40311998168112816864125614.5072.229251999101431403042196910011.3991.957120005743520284916256.6552.739362001181622883632256432414.54811.916492002142022802840400419615.8243.32792003121231443636144914410.7611.535120041019419040763611610010.4830.23311101042712822562791500891386110.03929.026176
*
*
*
2005
*
m
*
*
10.4
*
*
*
*
*
*
S
*
28
%9.56.00.1050.011030.6311.54.60.0870.007560.4013.54.00.0740.005490.3015.53.20.0650.004160.2117.52.80.0570.003270.1619.52.50.0510.002630.1321.52.40.0470.002160.1123.52.30.0430.001810.1025.52.20.0390.001540.0927.52.10.0360.001320.0832.10.6040.040972.21
*
*
28
*
1013
/110.00545.60100.002.73697.490627.369210.25525.20105.062.72037.400027.883310.50521.56110.252.71737.383728.532410.75505.20115.562.70357.308929.063511.00498.49121.002.69777.277629.675611.25484.20126.562.68507.209230.206711.50476.22132.252.67787.170630.795811.75461.20138.062.66397.096431.301912.00451.71144.002.65497.048531.85999--1092.724.257365.386266.68
*
0.250.9
*
*
*
1013
*
9.4
*
n Ai n B Ci = Ai/B yt=a+bTCi i=1234
*
1999~20042005
1999~20042005
1999180 -23150 -21120 -19150 -176002000210 -15160 -13130 -11160 -96602001230 -7170 -5130 -3170 -17002002250 +1180 +3140 +5180 +77502003300 +9200 +11150 +13200 +158502004400 +17220 +19160 +21220 +2310001570108083010804560Ai262180138180B=190Ci1.380.950.730.95--
1999180 -23150 -21120 -19150 -176002000210 -15160 -13130 -11160 -96602001230 -7170 -5130 -3170 -17002002250 +1180 +3140 +5180 +77502003300 +9200 +11150 +13200 +158502004400 +17220 +19160 +21220 +2310001570108083010804560Ai262180138180B=190Ci1.380.950.730.95--
*
*
*
*
1234567891011122002516070605040403050504060601200355657555554540355560506565520047064806648514538656855707201761892251811531361251031701781451951976Ai58.7637560.35145.341.734.356.759.348.365B=54.9Ci1.071.151.371.100.930.830.760.621.031.080.841.18--
*
AiBiCi Ci=Ai/Bi /Fi yt=a+bTFi
*
20032004242005111
TYAi BiCiTYAiBiCi2003.1-2359.149.461.192004.1165.656.801.16 2-2155.050.071.10 2363.257.401.10 3-1950.250.690.99 3559.258.021.02 4-1746.951.300.91 4755.758.630.95 5-1546.251.910.89 5954.359.240.92 6-1346.152.520.88 61153.759.850.90 7-1146.553.130.88 71354.060.460.89 8-947.253.740.88 81554.861.070.90 9-749.554.350.91 91756.361.680.91 10-558.154.961.06 101962.662.291.00 11-364.455.571.16 112169.162.911.10 12-166.256.181.18 122371.963.521.13
*
*
20051
200511
*
9.5
*
19962004
19961997199819992000200120022003200419109108121016152111315201817202023330313345434341586644850525862556490915105108110134156111148139140617918018518017422523023525372102182152081892272032401988909295901009312789969353740404653414278101413141321242323501191013101413161625128891019141717197487707908188508879859851054
*
19961997199819992000200120022003200410.0120.0130.0110.0120.0090.0140.0110.0160.0140.01220.0150.0170.0190.0200.0200.0190.0210.0200.0220.01930.0400.0400.0420.0550.0510.0480.0440.0590.0630.04940.0640.0650.0660.0710.0730.0620.0680.0910.0830.07250.1400.1400.1400.1640.1840.1250.1580.1410.1330.14760.2390.2340.2340.2200.2050.2540.2460.2340.2400.23470.2810.2830.2720.2540.2220.2560.2170.2440.1880.24680.1200.1190.1200.1100.1170.1050.1360.0900.0910.11290.0470.0480.0510.0490.0540.0600.0440.0430.0740.052100.0190.0170.0180.0160.0250.0270.0250.0230.0470.024110.0120.0130.0160.0120.0160.0150.0170.0160.0240.016120.0110.0100.0110.0120.0220.0160.0130.0170.0180.014
*
*
2005 1056.430.012=12.68 1056.430.019=20.07 1056.430.049=51.77 1056.430.072=76.06 1056.430.147=155.30 1056.430.235=248.26 1056.430.247=260.94 1056.430.112=118.32 1056.430.052=54.93 1056.430.024=25.35 1056.430.016=16.90 1056.430.014=14.79
*
*
*
11.1
*
EiEiEjnn-1
*
*
EiEjpij
KPk
*
11.2
*
*
nn-1
*
*
*
*
11.3 :10001025030045011
1112
230101025030045020250303010410
*
*
11
*
11 10000.28 = 280 10000.27 = 270 10000.45 = 450 121112
*
12 10000.306 = 306 10000.246 = 246 10000.448 = 448
*
*
ABC1000400A300B300C
ABCA160120120400B1809030300C1803090300
*
*
A0.52B0.24C0.24
*
50.08%24.96%24.96%
*
A50%B25%C25%
*
tytyty183.4870.91563.5285.99138.316103.93106.110124.71777.84154.41195.818114.45132.012139.019157.6647.51363.720190.2745.81485.121105.9
*
S1S2S3S1 S2 S3 5501041270213
*
21105.9
22100
*
11.4 1 2
*
*
i=1 i=2 K
*
24
123456789101112131415161718192021222324
*
S1 S2S1S27772
*
*
3 560
*
K=2
*
K=3
7.63 4.54
*
*
*
*
*
*
40
*
2060
*
*
*
200278 2001199841200
*
19891992199719931997199785.3%5
*
44 1998 602002
*
61%199885.3%33.3%
*
198912115020006200010SDAPPA2001966
*
3FDAPPAPPAPPAPPAPPA
*
292PSAPPA292
*
*
*
*
*
*
123