盈亏平衡分析
DESCRIPTION
1. 2. 3. 第五章 工程项目风险与不确定性分析. 盈亏平衡分析. 敏感性分析. 风险分析. 不确定性与风险概述. ( 一 ) 不确定性与风险 1. 不确定性 —— 缺乏足够信息的条件下所造成的实际值和期望值的偏差,其结果无法用概率分布规律来描述。 2. 风险 —— 由于随机的原因而造成的实际值和期望值的差异,结果可用概率分布规律来描述。 ( 二 ) 不确定性或风险产生的原因 1. 项目数据的统计偏差 2. 通货膨胀 3. 技术进步 4. 市场供求结构变化 5. 其他外部因素 ( 政府政策、法规的变化 ). 产量 Q. 行. 单价 P. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
-
()1.2.()1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ()
-
()()()()()
-
(Break-even analysis)CRCF+vQR(P-t)Q
-
()vQF
-
1.
-
2. (BEP)QBvQF(B=0)
-
3. B
-
25% 75%
-
: (1)42006000/6303000(2)(3)
-
()() 1. 2. C=R Q CR Q1 B Q2 BEP1 BEP2 Qmax QmaxEmax
-
5-26600028550.0010.0035 280.001Q 550.0035Q(1)
-
(2) B=RC
-
(BEP)BEP
-
5-3A7015B1703515%nnNPVAB9.92NPVANPVB7015(P/A5%n)17035(P/A5%n) (P/A5%n)5n9.92()
-
ABBB10A10B
-
HomeworkP114 460005066000()285
-
. 1. 2.
-
3.A. :
-
B.() ()
-
4.
-
5-4( ic=9%) (1) (2) (3)IRR.
I()B()C()L() n() 15006002502006
- IRR600 600 600 600 600 8000 1 2 3 4 5 6250 250 250 250 250 2501500I=1500B=600C=250L=200 NPV(i=12%)=40.31>0 NPV(i=13%)=-47.87
-
IRR=12%+[40.31/(40.31+47.87)]1%=12.45%(4)XIRR(%)X5%10%
-10%-5%0+5%+10%7.1110.1212.4515.6318.2915.1414.0212.4511.7610.61 15.6313.3612.4511.299.75
-
(5)
-
.
-
5-5 xyn
1000055000220020008%
-
n=2n=3 n=4n=5n=6
-
n=2n=3n=4n=5n=6n=7NAVn=236.9%32.9% n4 n()
-
PMO
-
5-6ic=8%
(O)1518112(M)151074.3(P)15855.7
-
52
-
: :
-
,,,,,,,
-
::::::
-
ny0, y1,, ynytyt (1), yt (2), yt (m)P1, P2,,, Pm,tyt
-
y0, y1,, ynE(yt)(t=0,1,,n)
-
5-710%
-
12345
-
n5(P/A15%n)3.335-8100030015%
-
5-92(1)0(2)-100(3)500
-
0 1-51P1 Q1-1000390405.860.122P1 Q2-1000450622.150.123P1 Q3-1000510838.440.064P2 Q1-1000310117.480.25P2 Q2-1000350261.670.26P2 Q3-1000390405.860.17P3 Q1-1000230-170.900.088P3 Q2-1000250-98.810.089P3 Q3-1000270-26.710.04
-
()()(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
-
()5-10()1. 1.00 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 010000 15000 20000 250000 30000 ( )
10000150002000025000P0.10.50.250.15
-
() 0.000.99250000.88200000.81200000.74150000.24100000.05150000.51200000.740.020.910.47RN1000025000150001750017250
RN0.000.090.100.590.600.840.850.9910000150002000025000
-
2. (1) (RN)(RND)+()
-
(2)(RN)RNRNmRNmRNab()
-
5-111501216253 ()+
-
0.3030.8710.2740.7520.3460.3650.4660.0210.5240.74813.21131613151313141214150.6230.0460.3180.3180.9800.4130.7400.5020.0690.2210.325-1.685-0.475-0.4752.055-0.2200.6400.005-1.485-0.77025.9819.9523.5823.5831.1524.3427.2225.0220.5522.6914.310.712.213.218.512.915.812.710.212.612345678910 (RN) () (RN) (RND) () (%)() ()
-
1%0.30.20.19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16IRR(%)()
-
10%10%0.92()
-
(1) (2) (3) (4)
-
1. (BEP)BEPC=R C=R
-
2.