盈亏平衡分析

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1. 2. 3. 第五章 工程项目风险与不确定性分析. 盈亏平衡分析. 敏感性分析. 风险分析. 不确定性与风险概述. ( 一 ) 不确定性与风险 1. 不确定性 —— 缺乏足够信息的条件下所造成的实际值和期望值的偏差,其结果无法用概率分布规律来描述。 2. 风险 —— 由于随机的原因而造成的实际值和期望值的差异,结果可用概率分布规律来描述。 ( 二 ) 不确定性或风险产生的原因 1. 项目数据的统计偏差 2. 通货膨胀 3. 技术进步 4. 市场供求结构变化 5. 其他外部因素 ( 政府政策、法规的变化 ). 产量 Q. 行. 单价 P. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • ()1.2.()1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ()

  • ()()()()()

  • (Break-even analysis)CRCF+vQR(P-t)Q

  • ()vQF

  • 1.

  • 2. (BEP)QBvQF(B=0)

  • 3. B

  • 25% 75%

  • : (1)42006000/6303000(2)(3)

  • ()() 1. 2. C=R Q CR Q1 B Q2 BEP1 BEP2 Qmax QmaxEmax

  • 5-26600028550.0010.0035 280.001Q 550.0035Q(1)

  • (2) B=RC

  • (BEP)BEP

  • 5-3A7015B1703515%nnNPVAB9.92NPVANPVB7015(P/A5%n)17035(P/A5%n) (P/A5%n)5n9.92()

  • ABBB10A10B

  • HomeworkP114 460005066000()285

  • . 1. 2.

  • 3.A. :

  • B.() ()

  • 4.

  • 5-4( ic=9%) (1) (2) (3)IRR.

    I()B()C()L() n() 15006002502006

  • IRR600 600 600 600 600 8000 1 2 3 4 5 6250 250 250 250 250 2501500I=1500B=600C=250L=200 NPV(i=12%)=40.31>0 NPV(i=13%)=-47.87
  • IRR=12%+[40.31/(40.31+47.87)]1%=12.45%(4)XIRR(%)X5%10%

    -10%-5%0+5%+10%7.1110.1212.4515.6318.2915.1414.0212.4511.7610.61 15.6313.3612.4511.299.75

  • (5)

  • .

  • 5-5 xyn

    1000055000220020008%

  • n=2n=3 n=4n=5n=6

  • n=2n=3n=4n=5n=6n=7NAVn=236.9%32.9% n4 n()

  • PMO

  • 5-6ic=8%

    (O)1518112(M)151074.3(P)15855.7

  • 52

  • : :

  • ,,,,,,,

  • ::::::

  • ny0, y1,, ynytyt (1), yt (2), yt (m)P1, P2,,, Pm,tyt

  • y0, y1,, ynE(yt)(t=0,1,,n)

  • 5-710%

  • 12345

  • n5(P/A15%n)3.335-8100030015%

  • 5-92(1)0(2)-100(3)500

  • 0 1-51P1 Q1-1000390405.860.122P1 Q2-1000450622.150.123P1 Q3-1000510838.440.064P2 Q1-1000310117.480.25P2 Q2-1000350261.670.26P2 Q3-1000390405.860.17P3 Q1-1000230-170.900.088P3 Q2-1000250-98.810.089P3 Q3-1000270-26.710.04

  • ()()(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)

  • ()5-10()1. 1.00 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 010000 15000 20000 250000 30000 ( )

    10000150002000025000P0.10.50.250.15

  • () 0.000.99250000.88200000.81200000.74150000.24100000.05150000.51200000.740.020.910.47RN1000025000150001750017250

    RN0.000.090.100.590.600.840.850.9910000150002000025000

  • 2. (1) (RN)(RND)+()

  • (2)(RN)RNRNmRNmRNab()

  • 5-111501216253 ()+

  • 0.3030.8710.2740.7520.3460.3650.4660.0210.5240.74813.21131613151313141214150.6230.0460.3180.3180.9800.4130.7400.5020.0690.2210.325-1.685-0.475-0.4752.055-0.2200.6400.005-1.485-0.77025.9819.9523.5823.5831.1524.3427.2225.0220.5522.6914.310.712.213.218.512.915.812.710.212.612345678910 (RN) () (RN) (RND) () (%)() ()

  • 1%0.30.20.19 10 11 12 13 14 15 16IRR(%)()

  • 10%10%0.92()

  • (1) (2) (3) (4)

  • 1. (BEP)BEPC=R C=R

  • 2.