document7

TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208

200

N cng Vit Nam hin nay: Thc trng v gii php ThS. Nguyn Tun T*

Cc Qun tr Ti v - B Ngoi giao, S 40 Trn Ph, Ba nh, H Ni, Vit Nam

Nhn ngy 26 thng 06 nm 2012

Tm tt. Trong bi cnh n cng chu u ang lan rng v cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu cha tm ra li thot, nhiu chuyn gia nghin cu cnh bo n cng ca Vit Nam cng ang mc nguy him v c xu hng gia tng nhanh. C rt nhiu ri ro tim n trong chi tiu cng, tr n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam, i hi phi c ci nhn nghim tc v vn ny c nhng gii php qun l n cng mt cch hiu qu trong thi gian ti. Bi vit phn tch thc trng n cng hin nay Vit Nam, nhng nguyn nhn dn n n cng v xut mt s gii php kim sot n cng trong bi cnh n cng nhiu nc trn th gii tip tc lan rng v kh kim sot. T kha: N cng, GDP, khng hong, ngn sch, thm ht, qun l, ri ro.

1. Thc trng n cng Vit Nam hin nay* Theo Lut Qun l n cng ca Vit Nam

nm 1999, n cng bao gm: n chnh ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh v n chnh quyn a phng. Theo bo co ca B Ti chnh, c cu n cng ca Chnh ph tnh n ngy 31/12/2010 nh sau: n chnh ph chim 80%, n c Chnh ph bo lnh chim 19% v n chnh quyn a phng chim 1%. Trong c cu n cng tnh n ngy 31/12/2010, n trong nc chim 42% v n nc ngoi chim 58%. Trong c cu n nc ngoi, n song phng chim 46,66%, n a phng chim 44,59%, cn li cc khon n tn dng thng mi, tn dng t nhn v tri phiu... (Hnh 1).

Cng vi s pht trin nhanh chng ca nn kinh t, n cng Vit Nam c xu hng tng ln rt nhanh. Theo nh gi ca B Ti chnh, n cng Vit Nam nm 2007 chim khong ______ * T: 84-903438074 Email: [email protected]

33,8% GDP, nm 2008 chim 36,2% GDP, nm 2009 chim 41,9% GDP, nm 2010 chim 52,6% GDP v nm 2011 chim 58,7% GDP. Cn theo nh gi ca Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF), n cng Vit Nam tng t 31,7% GDP nm 2001 ln 42,2% GDP nm 2005, t 52,7% GDP nm 2010. Tnh trong giai on 2007-2011, n cng Vit Nam tng khong 25%, t mc tng trung bnh 5%/nm. Tnh theo tc tng trung bnh, n nm 2019, d bo n cng Vit Nam s t mc 100% GDP. N cng tng cao khin thm ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam lun mc ln, dng mc -5,8% GDP nm 2010 theo nh gi ca B Ti chnh, v mc -6% nm 2010 theo nh gi ca IMF (Bng 1).

Nu so snh vi mt s nc ang gp khng hong n cng chu u nh Hy Lp, Ty Ban Nha, B o Nha hoc M th tnh hnh n cng ca Vit Nam hin nay vn c nh gi l kh an ton. Vo thi im cng b khng hong cui nm 2009, n cng Hy Lp t mc 115% GDP, cn cc nc Ty Ban Nha, B o Nha n cng u khong 100%

N.T.T/TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KinhtvKinhdoanh28(2012)200208

201

GDP, thm ht ngn sch ca cc nc ny u gp 3-4 ln cho php.. i vi Vit Nam, cc t chc xp hng quc t mc d duy tr mc tn nhim n cng l B+ nhng h u cho rng n cng Vit Nam nm 2011 l khong 58,4% GDP (theo nh gi ca IMF) v mc n cng

ny cao hn rt nhiu so vi mc trung bnh 37% i vi hng B. Trong khu vc chu , Vit Nam l nc c t l n cng/GDP cao hn nhiu so vi Trung Quc, Indonesia, Campuchia, Hn Quc, i Loan, Thi Lan, Philippines (Hnh 2).

gj

Hnh 1. C cu n cng Vit Nam tnh n ngy 31/12/2010. Ngun: Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha (2011), An Overview of Public Debt Management in Vietnam,

Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference, Geneva, 14-16/11/2011.

Bng 1. Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ca Vit Nam giai on 2000-2010 (% GDP) Ch s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Thm ht ngn sch B Ti chnh -4,9 -4,9 -4,9 -5,0 -5,7 -4,6 -6,9 -5,8 IMF -4,3 -3,8 -3,3 -4,8 -1,8 -3,7 -0,4 -1,9 -0,9 -8,9 -6,0 ADB -4,3 -3,5 -2,3 -2,2 0,2 -1,1 1,3 -1,0 -1,9 -7,7 N cng B Ti chnh 11,5 13,3 16,1 19,4 23,2 27,7 33,8 36,3 41,9 52,6 58,7 IMF 31,7 32,5 33,3 38,9 42,2 42,9 45,6 43,9 49,0 56,6 58,4

Ngun: B Ti chnh, IMF, ADB, The Economist Intelligence Unit, tng hp t s liu tng nm.

Hnh 2. N cng Vit Nam v mt s nc chu tnh n 31/12/2009.

Ngun: Benedict Bingham (2010), Vietnam: Fiscal Strategy and Public Debt, IMF Hanoi.


202

2. Nhng ri ro tim n ca n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam

Ri ro trong chi tiu cng Trong nhiu nm qua, tnh hnh chi tiu

cng Vit Nam khng t hiu qu cao. Vn chi tiu khng ng ch , s dng ti chnh khng ng mc tiu, khng ng ngun, tnh trng bi chi, lng ph v tht thot din ra kh ph bin. S liu ca Kim ton Nh nc nm 2008 cng b s ti sn mua sai ch , s dng sai mc ch ca 8 b ngnh ln n 95 t ng. Kim ton Nh nc cng thng k nhng tht thot tin ca trong chi tiu cng hu ht cc d n ln ti con s 783,8 t ng nm 2008. Trong chi tiu thng xuyn, s tin chi khng ng ch , khng thuc nhim v chi 16/29 tnh c kim ton vt qu con s quy nh l 800 t ng. Theo s liu ca B Ti chnh, tng chi ngn sch nh nc nm 2008 tng 22,3% so vi nm 2007 v bng 118,9% so vi d ton. Trong , chi u t pht trin v chi thng xuyn vt mc d ton tng ng mc 118,3% v 113,3%. Theo s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, trong 9 thng u nm 2011, vn u t thc hin t Ngn sch Nh nc l 131.364 t ng, tng gn 24% so vi cng k nm trc. Vic ct gim u t cng i khi cn khng hiu qu. Nhiu d n trng im ang u t li b dng t ngt, chng hn nh xy dng bnh vin cp vng Tin Giang gim ti cho cc bnh vin tuyn trn. Trong khi , mt s khon mc u t cn ct gim nh mua sm thit b, my mc, xe c vn cha c ct gim nghim ngt. Trong iu kin th gii ang gp khng hong, mc chi cng tng cao nh trn cho thy k lut u t cng hin nay ca Vit Nam cn lng lo.

Ri ro trong tr n cng Nh cp, n cng ca Vit Nam hin

nay gm n trong nc v n nc ngoi. N trong nc ch yu l tri phiu chnh ph m h thng ngn hng thng mi mua, cn n nc ngoi phn ln l n song phng v n

a phng, trong n nc ngoi ca doanh nghip do Chnh ph bo lnh chim mt t trng rt ln. C n trong nc v n nc ngoi Vit Nam u rt ng lo ngi.

i vi vn n trong nc, hin nay h thng ngn hng Vit Nam ang gp rt nhiu vn v tnh thanh khon v n xu. Ngha v tr n ni a trong 3 nm ti c c tnh trn s lng tri phiu chnh ph pht hnh v s o hn trong vng 3 nm ti, c khong 215.000 t ng, tng ng 20% d ton thu ngn sch nh nc ca thi im (2014). Nu trong trng hp xu (chng hn c bin ng bt li v t gi hoc bong bng bt ng sn b v), h thng ngn hng Vit Nam c kh nng chao o v c nguy c sp , lc Chnh ph khng th d tr ngoi t v d tr n cu gip cc ngn hng, lm cho nn kinh t d c nguy c sp . N trong nc thng qua tri phiu ngn hng s ch khin khng hong ca khu vc ny l tin cho khng hong khu vc kia.

i vi vn n nc ngoi, kh nng thanh ton n ca Vit Nam c y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia nh gi theo cc ch tiu: (i) quy m ca khon n so vi GDP; (ii) quy m khon n so vi tng thu ngn sch nh nc v so vi tng gi tr xut khu. Tnh trong GDP, n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam tng t 31,4 % nm 2006 ln 42,2% nm 2010 v n nc ngoi ca khu vc cng tng t 26,7% nm 2006 ln 31,1% GDP nm 2010. Ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph so vi thu ngn sch nh nc duy tr mc 3,5-3,6%/nm, ngha v tr n trung v di hn so vi xut khu hng ha v dch v duy tr mc 3,3-4,2%/nm trong giai on 2006-2010. Tnh ton thng qua cc ch tiu trn, c th thy kh nng thanh ton n ca Vit Nam ang gim dn. C th, nu xt theo ch tiu quy m ca khon n so vi GDP th kh nng thanh ton n ca Vit Nam ang gim rt nhanh k t nm 2008. So vi tng thu ngn sch nh nc, nm 2010, tng n cng gp


203

gn hai ln (cha bao gm ngha v tr n d phng cho cc doanh nghip nh nc). Cn t

l n cng nc ngoi vi tng gi tr xut khu c tnh xp x khong 44%.

Bng 2. Mt s ch tiu chnh v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, giai on 2006-2010 Ch tiu 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tng s d n nc ngoi so vi GDP (%) 31,4 32,5 29,8 39,0 42,2 N nc ngoi khu vc cng so vi GDP (%) 26,7 28,2 25,1 29,3 31,1 Ngha v tr n trung v di hn so vi xut khu hng ha v dch v (%)

4,0 3,8 3,3 4,2 3,4

Ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph so vi thu ngn sch nh nc (%)

3,7 3,6 3,5 5,1 3,7

D tr ngoi hi so vi tng d n ngn hn (%) 6.380,0 10.177,0 2.808,0 290,0 187,0 Ngha v n d phng ca Chnh ph so thu ngn sch nh nc (%)

4,5 4,6 4,7 4,3 5,8

Ngun: B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng 7/2011.Trong c cu vay n nc ngoi ca Chnh

ph, n c Chnh ph bo lnh chim mt t l tng i ln v c xu hng tng mnh. N c Chnh ph bo lnh phn ln l n nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip nh nc. Trong

iu kin doanh nghip nh nc lm n km hiu qu nh hin nay, ngha v tr n nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip u dn ln vai Nh nc.

k

Hnh 3. Cu trc n cng nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, giai on 2006-2010.

Ngun: B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng 7/2011.Tnh thanh khon n cng ca Vit Nam

hin nay vn c nh gi l kh tt v cc khon vay di hn vi li sut thp chim ti 80% (ngha v tr n n nm 2013 chim khong 10% d tr ngoi hi quc gia v n nc ngoi chim 20% d tr ngoi hi hin nay). Mc d vy, n cng ca Vit Nam vn

c th xy ra nhng ri ro v tnh thanh khon, khi thi hn tr n b xo trn (khon n t trung hn v di hn c th chuyn thnh ngn hn - trong trng hp cc ch n gp kh khn hay khng hong kinh t trong nc). c bit, ri ro v tnh thanh khon ca nhng khon n nc ngoi ngn hn l


204

iu rt ng lo ngi khi t l d tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam trn tng d n ngn hn v ang st gim vi tc rt nhanh, t mc 100 ln nm 2007 xung cn 28 ln nm 2008, cn 3 ln nm 2009 v ch cn gp khong gn 2 ln nm 2010.

3. Nguyn nhn dn n tnh trng n cng hin nay Vit Nam

N cng hin nay Vit Nam c th xut pht t mt s nguyn nhn ch yu sau y:

Th nht, m rng u t cng mt cch t nhng khng hiu qu dn n n cng tng mnh. Trong nhiu nm qua, Nh nc u t rt ln cho cc cng trnh cng cng, c bit l c s h tng, cng bin, sn bay, c khu kinh t... Cc chuyn gia cho rng, vi tnh hnh tnh no cng lp k hoch xy dng cng bin, trnh k hoch lm sn bay, tnh no cng xin lm c khu kinh t, th u t cng dn tri v lng ph l iu tt yu xy ra. Theo B K hoch v u t, mi nm Vit Nam cn khong 25 t USD u t cho c s h tng, trong khi vn huy ng c hng nm t cc ngun ca Nh nc cng nh ca t nhn cha n 16 t USD, phn cn li l phi vay n nc ngoi. Chi tiu v u t n cng km hiu qu ang em li nhng ri ro ng bo ng cho nn kinh t. N khin mc thm ht ngn sch ca Vit Nam lun mc rt cao trong khu vc, ng thi khin hiu qu u t trn mt ng vn lun mc thp. Nu giai on 2000-2005 b ra gn 5 ng c th to ra 1 ng tng thm ca GDP, n giai on 2006-2010 phi b ra 7,4 ng mi to ra 1 ng tng thm ca GDP. Trong nhiu nm gn y, Vit Nam ang gp phi vn thm ht kp: thm ht ngn sch v chi tiu cng u mc cao. Tuy cha iu kin xy ra mt cuc khng hong n cng nh mt s nc chu u v M nh thi gian qua, bi Vit Nam vn l mt trong nhng nn kinh t c tc tng trng kinh t cao, nhng mt khi tc tng trng kinh t suy gim v nhiu l do

khc nhau th Chnh ph buc phi la chn cc gi kch thch kinh t khin n cng ngy cng tng mnh hn.

Vi mc n cng ca Chnh ph nh hin nay, nhiu kin cho rng u t cng tip tc c xu hng i vay nc ngoi vi li sut cao, khin n cng ca Vit Nam cng tng nhanh, gy kh nng d b tn thng i vi nn kinh t v m. Theo Cc Qun l n v Ti chnh i ngoi, li sut trung bnh n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph tng t 1,54%/nm vo nm 2006 ln 1,9%/nm vo nm 2009 v nm 2010 t 2,1%/nm. Vi thc trng ny, chi ph tr li ang tr thnh gnh nng ngy cng gia tng ca Chnh ph. Trong khi n nc ngoi ca khu vc cng tng cao nhng nm gn y, th t l d tr ngoi hi so vi tng d n ngn hn li c xu hng gim mnh. iu ny cho thy vic tr n nc ngoi Vit Nam tuy vn trong mc an ton, nhng c nguy c mt an ton trong nhiu nm ti khi Vit Nam tr thnh nc c thu nhp trung bnh, khng cn c hng u i t ngun vn h tr pht trin chnh thc (ODA) trong khi vay n t cc ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi gp rt nhiu kh khn.

Th hai, chnh sch kch cu ca Chnh ph trong nhng nm qua khin bi chi ngn sch ca Vit Nam tng cao v Chnh ph buc phi vay n b p ngn sch, dn n n cng tng cao. Nm 2008, Chnh ph chi 1 t USD kch cu u t v tiu dng, n nm 2009, Chnh ph li tung hai gi kch cu vi tng tr gi 9 t USD. Nh cc gi kch cu ny, nn kinh t Vit Nam c nhiu thay i tch cc trong khng hong, nhng cng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin n cng gia tng. Ngn sch nh nc vn rt cng thng v ngun thu t thu gim trong nhng nm khng khong kinh t ton cu, cng vi gi du th gii gim khin doanh thu ca Chnh ph b nh hng, cho nn vic tung ra cc gi kch cu trn nh hng mnh n ti chnh cng.


205

Th ba, n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc ngy cng ln. Mc d trong c cu n cng ca Vit Nam hin nay cha tnh n n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc, nhng trong c cu n ca doanh nghip do Chnh ph bo lnh hu ht l cc khon vay ngn hn, v vy trong trng hp doanh nghip khng c kh nng tr n, Chnh ph s l ngi phi tr n thay cho doanh nghip.

Hn th, nhiu chuyn gia cho rng, vic khng tnh n ca doanh nghip nh nc trong c cu n cng ca Vit Nam l iu kh lng trc c ri ro, c kh nng a Vit Nam ri vo ci by khng hong n cng nu khng kim sot tt n ca doanh nghip nh nc. Theo bo co ca Vin Nghin cu Qun l Kinh t Trung ng, u t ca 22/100 doanh nghip nh nc ln nm 2010 tng ng 17 t USD (17% GDP), v nu tnh c 100 doanh nghip nh nc th quy m u t ca khu vc doanh nghip ny l rt ln, trong phn ln l i vay. Theo bo co ca Chnh ph gi Quc hi vo ngy 1/11/2010, n ca 81/91 doanh nghip nh nc (cha tnh Vinashin) trong nm 2009 l 813.435 t ng, tng ng 49% GDP. Nu tnh c n ca Vinashin, n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc vo cui nm 2009 tng ng 54,2% GDP. R rng n ca c doanh nghip nh nc v Chnh ph u tng rt nhanh trong mt thi gian rt ngn, trong mc tng n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc tht s ng lo ngi. Nu nhn vo con s tuyt i, sau khi tr i cc khon n nc ngoi v vi nhng tnh ton thn trng nht th trong nm 2009, khu vc doanh nghip nh nc chim khng di 60% trong tng tn dng n ni a tng thm ca ton nn kinh t. y l bng chng cho thy cc doanh nghip nh nc l i tng c hng li nhiu nht t chng trnh h tr li sut v kch cu ca Chnh ph nm 2009. Vi mc n ca doanh nghip nh nc ln nh trn, Chnh ph khng nn loi n ca doanh nghip nh nc ra khi n cng ca Vit Nam bi nu doanh nghip nh nc khng tr c n th ngn sch s phi gnh.

4. Gii php qun l n cng hiu qu Vit Nam trong thi gian ti

Nhng phn tch trn cho thy, Vit Nam ang c nhiu du hiu ging vi mt s nc chu u lm vo tnh trng khng hong n cng, l: i) Tng trng kinh t gim k t sau khng hong ti chnh M nm 2008 n nay; ii) Thm ht ngn sch v n cng ln, c xu hng tng nhanh; iii) Lm pht tng cao v kh kim ch; iv) C cu n cng nc ngoi tng cao trong khi t l d tr ngoi hi/tng d n ngn hn gim mnh; v) N ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc rt ln nhng cha c tnh vo c cu n cng; vi) Vit Nam ang b p lc khng c vay cc khon vay u i li sut thp (nh ODA) m tin ti phi vay cc khon vay thng mi vi li sut cao hn, thi gian vay ngn hn. Nhng yu t ny khin n cng Vit Nam c nguy c nm trong vng ri ro cao, nht l khi nn kinh t Vit Nam vn tip tc tng trng da vo khai thc ti nguyn thin nhin, thm dng lao ng, vn, nng sut lao ng thp. Cho n nay, n cng Vit Nam vt ngng an ton, trong vi nm ti c kh nng tip tc tng cao v thiu bn vng.

Nhn vo nh hng pht trin kinh t - x hi ca Vit Nam t nay n nm 2020, c th thy trong thi gian ti Vit Nam s tip tc phi i vay b p nhng thiu ht u t, bi t l tit kim ni a ca Vit nam hin nay ch l khong 27% GDP, trong khi mc u t ton x hi i hi mi nm l 42% GDP. Tnh khng bn vng ca n cng trong thi gian ti c th quy v mt s yu t sau y:

Th nht, Nh nc tip tc u t ln xy dng cc cng trnh c s h tng hin i v quan trng nh d n ng st cao tc Bc - Nam (d tnh 56 t USD), d n xy dng Th (60 t USD), nh my in ht nhn Ninh Thun (trn 10 t USD)..., trong ngun vn ch yu ly t ngn sch nh nc v n cng. iu ny s khin n cng, c bit l n nc ngoi, ca Vit Nam tng nhanh trong thi gian ti.


206

Th hai, n cng ph thuc vo cn cn ngn sch v tc tng trng kinh t. Tc tng trng kinh t cao l iu kin cn tng ngun thu v t thng d ngn sch. Tuy nhin, nu m hnh kinh t Vit Nam khng c s i mi, tip tc da vo cc yu t vn v thm dng ti nguyn lao ng th tc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam trong thi gian ti s gim, dn n thm ht ngn sch v n cng cao hn. Thc trng pht trin kinh t hin nay Vit Nam cho thy, vic i mi m hnh tng trng Vit Nam ang gp rt nhiu vn khc mc, c bit trong vn pht trin ngun nhn lc, doanh nghip nh nc, cng nghip h tr, c s h tng mm... Theo d bo nm 2011 ca Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), tc tng GDP trung bnh hng nm ca Vit Nam s ch t trung bnh 7,4% vo nm 2015, gim cn khong 5% sau nm 2020 v ch t khong 3-4% sau nm 2030.

Cn theo nh gi ca y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia, vi mc tng trng GDP bnh qun mi nm l 7%/nm cho giai on 2011-2020, nu thm ht ngn sch nh nc vn gi mc bnh qun 5,6% GDP/nm nh giai on 2006-2010 th n cng ca Vit Nam (cha tnh n ca cc doanh nghip nh nc do Chnh ph bo lnh) s vo khong 70,8% GDP nm 2020; 75,5% GDP nm 2025 v 78,1% GDP nm 2030. Vi mc n cng c d bo nh trn, kh nng v n ca Vit Nam l kh cao.

Th ba, n cng Vit Nam trong thi gian ti ph thuc rt nhiu vo tnh hiu qu ca cc doanh nghip nh nc. Nhiu chuyn gia kinh t cho rng, n cng ca Vit Nam hin rt cao, do cha tnh n n ca doanh nghip nh nc c Chnh ph bo lnh nn khng xc nh chnh xc s n cng l bao nhiu, v vy khng bit c ngng nguy him ca nn ti chnh quc gia mc no.

Bng 3. Ch s ROA v ROE ca 500 doanh nghip ln nht Vit Nam (%) ROA ROE Nm Doanh nghip nh nc FDI T nhn Doanh nghip nh nc FDI T nhn

2007 3,7 26,9 3,1 25,6 62,4 34,9 2008 3,1 14,7 3,6 15,4 30,9 19,5 2009 3,6 13,7 2,6 15,3 27,6 14,5 2010 5,2 13,0 2,5 20,8 27,1 15,0 2011 2,7 9,8 2,4 10,0 24,6 16,0

Ngun: C s d liu Vietnam Report - Bng xp hng VNR500 nm 2007-2011.ng lo ngi nht l hiu qu kinh t ca

cc doanh nghip nh nc nhn chung rt thp, th hin t sut li nhun trn ti sn (ROA) v t sut li nhun trn vn ch s hu (ROE) ca cc doanh nghip nh nc lun thp hn khu vc FDI v khu vc doanh nghip t nhn, ng thi c xu hng gim trong 5 nm gn y, c bit gim mnh vo nm 2011. iu ny chng t mt ng vn ca doanh nghip b ra trong nm 2011 ch thu li cha bng mt na ca 5 nm trc y (2007). Hot ng km hiu qu ca doanh nghip khin cc khon vay do Chnh ph bo lnh ca cc doanh nghip nh nc trong nhng nm ti rt t c kh nng t chi tr v u trng i vo s cu gip t pha Nh nc.

Trc nhng ri ro tim n ca n cng Vit Nam, Chnh ph v cc b, ban, ngnh ang n lc tm kim cc gii php qun l n cng hiu qu, trnh xy ra tnh trng khng hong n cng trong tng lai. Trn quan im phn tch thc trng n cng v nhng ri ro trong s dng n cng v tr n cng ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua, bi vit a ra mt s kin ngh chnh sch sau y:

Mt l, cn thay i cch tnh n cng, trong tnh c n ca cc doanh nghip nh nc c bo lnh trong c cu n cng. Vi cch tnh mi ny, chng ta mi c th tnh chnh xc s n cng hin ti l bao nhiu, c ngng ri ro cao hay khng, t mi c th qun l hiu qu n cng.


207

Hai l, cn thay i c cu n cng theo hng tng t trng n trong nc nhiu hn n nc ngoi. N trong nc c th huy ng thng qua cc t pht hnh tri phiu vi li sut ph hp huy ng ngun vn nhn ri trong ngi dn. Nu khng thay i c c cu n cng theo hng tng cao n trong nc, Vit Nam s rt kh khn trong vic tr n nc ngoi bi trong thi gian ti nhng u i t ngun vn ODA cho Vit Nam s gim mnh, buc Chnh ph tip tc phi i vay n ti cc ngn hng thng mi nc ngoi vi li sut cao v thi gian ngn hn hn rt nhiu. Hn na, vic vay n cc ngn hng nc ngoi rt nguy him nu gp nhng bin ng bt li v t gi.

Ba l, cn thc hin k lut ti kha mt cch r rng v nghim ngt trnh tnh trng thm ht ngn sch trin min v lun mc cao, gy nh hng bt li n n cng. K lut ti kha cn thc thi nhm gim thm ht ngn sch mt cch cng rn theo l trnh r rng, chng hn nh thm ht ngn sch duy tr mc 4% t nay n nm 2020, duy tr mc 3% k t sau nm 2020...

Bn l, phi c nhng lnh vc u tin r rng trong chi tiu s dng n cng. Nhng u tin cn t ra l: cc c s h tng cng ch, cc dch v an sinh x hi, cc doanh nghip nh nc khng v mc ch thng mi. Cc doanh nghip nh nc v th cng cn phi thu hp theo hng: tip tc pht trin cc doanh nghip nh nc v li ch cng ch v c Chnh ph bo lnh, ng thi bn cc doanh nghip nh nc kinh doanh thng mi cho nh u t nc ngoi v t nhn trong nc.

Nm l, cn trng hn i vi qun l ri ro n cng ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc. N ca doanh nghip nh nc, n chnh ph v n cng u ang tng ln rt nhanh, mi b phn n ny c tnh cht v cu trc khc nhau, em li nhng ri ro khc nhau v cn phi c nhng bin php qun l ri ro mt cch hiu qu. qun l n hiu qu, cn phi tnh c

n ca khu vc doanh nghip nh nc trnh tnh trng mt hoc vi doanh nghip nh nc mt kh nng tr n s nh hng n cc doanh nghip nh nc khc, gy v hng lot h thng ti chnh - ngn hng do n xu ca cc doanh nghip, khin Chnh ph mt kh nng gip doanh nghip tr n v dn n tnh trng v n nh Hy Lp v mt s nc chu u ang gp phi.

Su l, cn xy dng mt c ch qun l n cng hiu qu. Ch kim ton rt cn s minh bch v c trch nhim gii trnh cao c th kim sot tt n cng ca Vit Nam. Hin ti, cht lng i ng kim ton nh nc ca Vit Nam cn thp, cha kh nng nh gi, phn tch bn cht ca n cng, phn loi n cng v nh gi nhng tc ng c th xy ra i vi n cng. Hn na, vic gim st chi tiu ca Chnh ph cng cn phi c th ch ha v bt buc thi hnh trnh tnh trng chi tiu khng ng mc ch, chi tiu vt qu mc cho php. Lut Ngn sch Nh nc cng cn phi c r sot li nhm nng cao hiu qu ca chi tiu cng. Nu khng c c ch qun l n cng hiu qu, chng ta khng th nh gi thu o tnh hnh tng trng kinh t, lng d tr quc gia l bao nhiu, n cng trong nc hay n cng nc ngoi ang gp mi nguy him g, do vy nguy c v n l iu khng th lng trc.

Nhn chung cho n nay, qun l n cng Vit Nam vn cha thc hin hiu qu. Trong nhng thng u nm 2012, s ph sn ca tp on Vinalines li mt ln na cnh bo tnh trng n cng ca Vit Nam vn tip tc tng nhanh v theo nh gi ca Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF), n nm 2015, n cng ca Vit Nam c kh nng l 86,2 t USD, chim 65% GDP. V vy, vic trin khai kp thi cc chnh sch v bin php qun l n cng l mt nhim v quan trng i vi Chnh ph v cc ngnh, cc cp c th qun l n cng ti Vit Nam mt cch an ton, hiu qu.


208

Ti liu tham kho [1] Nguyn c Thnh (2011), N cng Vit Nam:

Mt s phn tch v tho lun, Hi tho v Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2011, trin vng nm 2012 v cc gii php thc hin k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi 2011-2015.

[2] Mai Thu Hin v Nguyn Th Nh Nguyt (2011), Tnh hnh n cng v qun l n cng Vit Nam, Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam, S 14.

[3] V Tr Thnh (2010), Ba ri ro ln t n cng ca Vit Nam, http://vef.vn/2010-12-04-3-rui-ro-lon-nhat-doi-voi-no-cong-cua-viet-nam.

[4] Nguyn Hoi (2011), N cng ti Vit Nam: Hu ha v bi hc t li dao S&P, http://vneconomy.vn/20110813041842652p0c6/hau-hoa-no-cong-va-bai-hoc-tu-luoi-dao-sp.htm.

[5] V Thnh T Anh (2010), Tnh bn vng ca n cng Vit Nam, http://www.tinkinhte.com/viet-nam/phan-tich-du-bao/tsvu-thanh-tu-anh-tinh-ben-vung-cua-no-cong-o-viet-nam.nd5-dt.99635.113121.html.

[6] B Ti chnh, Bn tin n nc ngoi s 7, thng 7/2011.

[7] Nguyen Thi Thanh Ha (2011), An Overview of Public Debt Management in Vietnam, Eighth UNCTAD Debt Management Conference, Geneva, 14-16/11/2011.

[8] Benedict Bingham (2010), Vietnam: Fiscal Strategy and Public Debt, IMF Hanoi.

[9] Economist Intelligence Unit (2011), Country Report: Vietnam.

Vietnams Public debt at present: Status and solusions

MA. Nguyen Tuan Tu Department of Financial Management - Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

No 40 Tran Phu, Ba Dinh, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract. In the context that the EU debt crisis is spreading and the global economy have not found a way out, many researchers have warned that Vietnams public debt is at a dangerous level and is rapidly increasing. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's public debt increased from 31.7% of GDP in 2001 to 42.2% of GDP in 2005, reaching 52.7% of GDP in 2010. If comparing to other EU countries that are in a severe public debt crisis, the Vietnams public debt is considered quite safe, but comparing to other Asian countries, Vietnam has a public debt/GDP ratio that is higher than China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Philippines. There are many potential risks in the spending of public debt, paying public debt and public debt management in Vietnam which require a serious look on this issue in order to have effective solutions of public debt management in the future.

document7

Documents