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Favform

He sidled up to me in the betting shop and whispered, "I've got a great system

for you." Now, I should explain that this was not some suspicious stranger, nor

a good friend who knew of my interest in systematic betting, but an ordinaryfellow-punter that I would see in the shop occasionally and exchange

greetings of the kind - "How's your luck?" "All bad." "Picking any winners?"

"No, I couldn't pick my nose." I should also explain that this encounter took

place about the middle of July this year; thats important. He turned to his

Racing Post, had a quick look through it and then announced, "No, there's

not a bet today. But anyway, here's what to do."

I'm a sucker for such approaches and listened attentively to what he had to

say. When he had finished I felt an absolute sense of anti-climax and

disappointment, and yet I knew that what he was saying was completely true -

every winner was genuine and the huge prices were well documented. So,

what was his wonderful system? Simply, back all the selections of Pricewise

in the Racing Post. I like to think of myself as a reasonably switched-on punter

and I've been well aware of Pricewise since its earliest days. As I recall, Mark

Coton was one of the first writers of the column, and since then many who

have followed him have gone on to fortune, if not fame, as successful

telephone tipsters. Mel Collier comes to mind as a recent example, and I'd be

happy to punt a quid that Tom Segal, the present incumbent, will be following

that profitable money trail before too long.

So, if I know all this, why was I not cashing in on it like my fellow-punter in the

betting shop? A good question. I was fully aware of Pricewise's great run of

winners, but because I had not got in on it at the start and because, unless

you are very quick you miss out on the value of the early odds on offer, I had

not felt inclined to back one of Pricewise's great winners. As I write these

notes around mid August, it would seem that the golden run of Pricewise has

perhaps come to an end for the moment. And I can't help but remember

hearing John McCririck on Morning Line some time ago sounding off about

how Pricewise had just suffered a losing run of quite alarming proportions;

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and what can happen once can easily happen again. These are just a few of

the thoughts that crossed my mind that day as my punter pal revealed to me

his wonderful system.

I know that some of you out there are keen golfers, so here's something for

you - a golfing joke. Husband and wife were out together having a game when

the wife was stung rather painfully by a wasp. The husband rushed her to a

doctor, who was himself a golfing enthusiast, and explained the problem. "And

whereabouts were you stung?" asked the doctor.

"Between the first and second hole, replied the lady.

"My goodness, said the doctor with some interest, "you must have a really

wide stance!"

That was too short; wed better have another one. This is a true story

concerning a friend of mine who really is a bit of a comedian. We were having

a game this day and he hadn't been playing at all well. Then to make matters

worse, as he was walking out of a bunker he trod on the bunker rake that was

lying there, and it came up and hit him a painful blow in a delicate area. When

he'd recovered he said, "Ooh, that was sore! But it's the best two balls I've hit

all day."

Favform is the name of our system for this month, and the name more-or-less

sums it up. You'll be backing carefully selected favourites with a special kind

of form and it's not, perhaps, the kind of form you might be expecting. It dates

from the time of the Sporting Life, so when it mentions using the betting

forecast of that paper, then, as usual, I'd suggest the forecast of the Racing

Post to replace it. I've just had a look at the results it gives and they cover a

period, Flat and N.H., of over six months. If we can believe them, the strike

rate is an incredible 74%, including a winning run of 14 and a losing one of

only 3. The points profit works out at just under 30, which is more than the

total number of selections for the period. If that kind of form can be

maintained, it would certainly be a favourite with me.

Favform

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This method involves looking for horses that despite a poor previous outing

are considered well clear favourite over the rest of the field, by having a

forecast S.P. (Sporting Life) well apart from the second favourite forecast. So,

whereas many methods are simply rating formulae, this method highlights a

more 'intuitive' selection. This approach is extremely successful as the results

show.

Selections are made as follows for all races, N.H. or Flat, shown in the

Sporting Life.

1. Consider only horses that are clear favourite in the S.P. betting forecast

shown in the Sporting Life for that day.

2. Note the S.P. forecast in the Sporting Life for these horses (this must be

between 11/10 and 5/2 inclusive) and also the 2nd favourite forecast S.P.

(which must be greater than or equal to 11/4). These two forecasts must fall

into one of the following combinations.

Forecast S.P. of Favourite Forecast S.P. of 2nd Favourite

11/10 Greater than or equal to 11/4










3. Eliminate horses which are racing for the first time in the season, unless

they have never raced before in races shown in the Sporting Life.

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4. If the horse has raced that season, the result as shown in the Sporting Life

must be '0' for its previous outing, i.e. it finished the race, but out of the first

four places.

5. In the betting market the horse must be clear favourite just before the 'off',

and its price must be greater than evens but less than or equal to 3/1. Note,

this means that odds-on selections are not backed.

When conditions 1 to 5 are satisfied, the horse is backed to win only.

77. favform

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