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Technology Assessment of Changes in theFuture Use and Characteristics of the

Automobile TransportationSystem—Volume II: Technical Report

February 1979

NTIS order #PB-293645

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Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 79-600030

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Wash ington, D.C. 20402 Stock No. 052-003-00650-2

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Preface

Origin of the Assessment

This assessment of the automobile transportation system was undertaken at therequest of Chairman Warren G. Magnuson of the Senate Commerce, Science, andTransportation Committee. It examines the automobile as a mode of personal trans-

portation and considers issues and policy options pertaining to vehicles, highways,and related industries, services, and institutions. The assessment was authorized inFebruary 1976 by the Technology Assessment Board, which approved a program to:

“Assess the changes in the future use an d characteristics of the autom obile transporta-tion system in the near term (to 1985) and the long term (to 2000 and beyond ).”

The objectives of the automobile technology assessment were:

q

q

q

q

To describe the factors that influence the characteristics of the automobile sys-tem, its use, and the services supporting its use,

To identify and characterize potential changes in automobile characteristicsand use,

To assess the near-term and far-term effects of various alternative Federal Gov-ernment policies relating to automobile characteristics and use,

To present the findings of the assessment in a form useful to Congress and thepublic.

Study Approach

As a first step in the assessment, OTA identified a number of issues that now con-front, or in the future might confront, the Congress in formulating policies related tothe automobile. These issues were grouped in five areas:

q Energy—conserving petroleum as a motor fuel and making the transition to

alternate energy sources,

q En v iro n men t—p ro tect in g th e e n v iro n me n t f ro m th e a d v e r se e ffe ct s o f automobile use,

q Safety—reducing the toll of death and injury on the highways,

Mobility—providing adequate p ersonal mobility for all, either by automobileor by alternate modes of transportation, and

q Cost and Capital—dealing with the consumer costs of personal transportationand assuring the capital resources to support the evolution of the automobiletransportation system.

With the assistance of the Automobile Assessment Advisory Panel and independ-

ent consultants, the OTA Transportation Group prepared a series of working papersdescribing these issues and identifying the interests of various stakeholders. Thesepapers were issued in October 1977 and served as a framework for later activities inthe assessment.

. . .111

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The major task of the assessment, analysis of policy alternatives, was carried outwith the help of two contractors: SRI International and a team composed of SystemDesign Concepts, Inc. (Sydec), Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA), andThe Institute for Safety Analysis, Inc. The results of these contractor efforts are con-tained in two working documents:

Potential Changes in the Use and Characteristics of the Automobile, StanfordResearch Institute International, January 1978.

Technology Assessment of Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile, System Design Concepts, Inc.; Energy and Environmental Anal-ysis, Inc.; The Institute for Safety Analysis, Inc., January 1978.

Based on these studies, the OTA Transportation Group has prepared this report,which is a synthesis of the contractors’ work and supplementary analyses by the OTAstaff and consultants. Thus, while this report is derived from material prepared bycontractors, OTA bears sole responsibility for interpretation of the information andpresentation of findings.

Organization of the Report

This report consists of three basic parts. The first part—chapters 1 through 4—contains background information, a description of the elements of the automobiletransp ortation system, Base Case projections, and delineation of the policy alter-natives that were considered. These chapters provide a baseline of present and futureautomobile system characteristics that serves as the frame of reference for policyanalysis.

The second part of the report—chapters 5 through 9—contains analyses of policyoptions in each of the five issue areas: energy, environment, safety, mobility, and costand capital. Each chapter is similarly organized and contains a discussion of issues, asummary of present policy, a statement of policy options, and analysis of effects andimpacts.

The third part of the report—chapter 10—is a survey of expected technological

developments in the near term (through 1985) and in the far term (to 2000 andbeyond).

A summary of major findings is presented at the beginning of each chapter. Adetailed table of contents is also provided at the beginning of each chapter to facilitatereference to specific topics.

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OTA Transportation GroupRobert L. Maxwell, Group Manager

M. Junior Bridge Debi Chertok D. Linda GarciaLarry L. Jenney H. James Leach Kathleen G. Lolich

Lin da M cCr ay Joel A. Miller Paula Walden

T e c h n i c a l A s s i s t a n c e

Raytheon Service Company

C o n s u l t a n t s

Richard P. Brennan Sidney GoldsteinMyr on M iller Don ald E. Ver aska

C o n t r a c t o r s

Energy and Environmental Analysis—principally: Robert L. Sansom and James N.

Heller.International Research and Technology—principally: Robert U. Ayres.

Purdue University, Center for Interdisciplinary Engineering Studies—R. EugeneGoodson and Kenneth R. Friedman.

Science Applications, Inc.—David A. Couts and Yardena Mansoor.

SRI International—principally: Ronald L. Braun, David A. Curry, Mark D.Levine, Thomas F. Mandel, Randall J. Pozdena, Robert S. Ratner, Peter Schwartz,and Philip D. Umholtz.

System Design Concepts—principally: Lowell K. Bridwell, Joseph R. Stowers, andBarbara Wauchope.

The Institute for Safety Analysis—Robert Brenner.

Urban Institute—Melvin Cheslow and Gerald K. Miller,

OTA Publishing StaffJohn C. Holmes, Publishing Officer

Kath ie S. Boss Joan ne Hem in g

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OTA AutomobileAssessment Advisory Panel

R. Eugene Goodson, ChairmanInstitute for interdisciplinary Engineering StudiesPurdue University

William G. AgnewTechnical Director General Motors Research Laboratories

Leo Blatz Executive Officer ESSO inter-America, Inc.

John J. ByrneChairman of the Board GEICO and Affiliates

B. J . Campbell Highway Safety Research Center University of North Carolina

Anne P. Carter Department of Economics Brandeis University

Frank W. Davis, Jr.Transportation Center University of Tennessee

Clarence Ditlow, IIICenter for Auto Safety

Lament Eltinge Director of Research Eaton Corporation Research Center

Norman Emerson*

Executive Assistant to the Mayor City of Los Angeles

William Haddon, Jr.President insurance Institute for Highway Safety

Kent Joscelyn Highway Safety Research InstituteUniversity of Michigan

Joshua Menkes National Science Foundation

Wilfred OwenThe Brookings Institution

Archie H. RichardsonPresident

Auto Owners Action Council

Angela RooneyUpper Northeast Coordinating Council

Richard H. Shackson* * Director of the Office of Environmental ResearchFord Motor Company

S. Fred SingerProfessor of Environmental SciencesUniversity of Virginia

Lawrence J. White***Graduate School of Business Administration New York University

Howard YoungUnited Auto Workers

The OTA Automobile Assessment Advisory Panel provided valuable advice, critique, andassistance to the OTA staff throughout this assessment. Their participation, however, does not nec-essarily constitute approval or endorsement of this report. OTA assumes sole responsibility for thereport and the accuracy of the content.

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Contents

-.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Characterization of the Automobil

The No-Policy Change Baseline . .

e Transportation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Overview of Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Page

3

13

29

75

Energy issues, Policies, and Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................107

Environmental Is:

Safety Issues, Poli

sues, Policies, and Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

cies, and Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .225

Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...253

Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...297

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .365

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......373

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Chapter l.—INTRODUCTION

PageBackground . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........4Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........5Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........6Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........7Cost and Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........8

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INTRODUCTION CHAPTER

BACKGROUND

During this century, the automobile has be-come a central feature of American society. Theoverwhelming proportion of personal travel inthis country is now by auto. There are now over100 million passenger vehicles in the UnitedStates—about one for each two people. Everyyear automobiles accumulate over 1 trillionmiles of travel over a paved road and street net-work of nearly 4 million miles. The automobile

influences personal decisions about where tolive, work, and shop and about hundreds of other activities and pursuits. It has become fun-damental to our way of 1ife.

The emergence of the automobile as the pre-dominant form of personal transportation hasbeen fostered by a wide variety of public poli-cies. These include policies that provide directsupport of automobile transportation, such astaxes to finance the vast roadway network, andthose that provide indirect support , such aspr ice con trols to ensure low-cost gasol ine .Other public policies have encouraged urbanand suburban development patterns that aregeared to extensive automobile use. At the sametime, public transportation services, which pro-vide alternative modes of urban and intercitytravel, have been allowed to deteriorate. Thecombined result of these policies—intentionaland otherwise—has been increasing reliance onthe automobile for personal transportation.

In recent years, it has become evident thatcontinued dependence on the automobile givesrise to conflicts with other needs or goals of oursociety. It is recognized that automobile use

produces degradation of the environment. Au-tomobiles consume a large share of increasinglyscarce petroleum supplies. Automobile crashesare a principal cause of death and injury.

Clearly, the problems related to automobileuse are important from the standpoint of public

policy. Equally important are the opportunitiesand benefits that the automobile affords. Theseinclude the major role of the automobile manu-facturing, supply, and service industries in theAmerican economy and the extensive personalmobili ty that the automobile provides. Thechallenge confronting the policy maker is how topreserve and extend the benefits of automobiletransportation wh i le g u a rd in g a g a in s t th e

adverse effects brought by present and futureautomobile technology.

The automobile transportation system is bothlarge and complex. It encompasses not only thevehicle and the associated manufacturing, serv-ice, repair, fuel, and insurance industries butalso the highway system, which includes con-struction, maintenance, polic ing, and trafficmanagement. The highway system serves morethan just private passenger vehicles. I t a lsoserves trucking and the various modes of masstransportation that use the public way. Thisassessment, however, concentrates on the pas-senger car and the industries, facil i t ies, andservices that support its use as a mode of per-sonal transportation. Other modes of travel areconsidered only insofar as they represent alter-natives to the automobile as means of personaltransportation. For the purposes of this assess-ment, the automobile is defined as a vehicle de-signed primarily for private passenger use. 1

Even with this limited definition of the auto-mobile transportation system, the number of concerns that could be addressed is still quitela rge and some se lec t iv i ty is necessa ry to

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Ch. 1—Introduction 5

intended to reduce automobile fuel consumptionhave included regulation of automobile fueleconomy, imposition of a nationwide 55 mphspeed limit, and encouragement of ride sharing.In addition, the Federal Government now hasprograms for development of new engine tech-nologies, for supporting the development anddemonstration of electric and hybrid vehicles,and for the development of synthetic fuels fromoil shale and coal.

With the clear prospect of diminishing petro-leum supply, the need to pursue both conserva-tion and the transition to alternate sources of energy is apparent. The pressures created by anenergy shortage could a lter many facets of American life, including the use of the automo-bile for personal transportation. These issues,and their important implications for this coun-try and its citizens, form one of the focal pointsof the assessment.

Environment

expanding industrial and technological activ-it ies. The second is the changing nature of pollutants, many of which are hazardous tohuman health and the ecological systems thatsupport human life. Although opinion in thescientific community is sharply divided aboutthe danger of specific pollutants and the overallseriousness of the environmental problem, it iswidely agreed that continued emission of in-creasing amounts of pollutants could causegrave, and perhaps irreparable, damage to theair we breathe, the water we drink, and the landwhere we grow our food.

Within the last two decades, attention hasbeen drawn to the automobile system as a majorsource of pollution. The environmental effectsof the automobile—most notably atmosphericpollution—have become subjects of widespreadconcern to the scientific community, govern-ments, and the general public . This concernculminated in the passage of the Clean Air Act

(and its subsequent amendments) and the Na-tional Environmental Policy Act.

There are two major trends in modern indus- With this legislation, particularly the 1970trialized society that create concern about the amendments to the Clean Air P.et, Congress em-environment. The first is the increasing amount barked on a major program to reduce atmos-of wastes produced by growing populations and pheric p ollution caused by automobile emis-

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6 q Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

sions. The administration of the Clean Air Actand the modification and extension of its provi-sions in 1977 have generated deep controversyamong the Federal Government, the automobileindustry, and the public concerned about the en-vironment.

The environmental effects of the automobilesystem are not limited to atmospheric pollution.

The noise of vehicles, the disposal of solidwastes (scrap vehicles and major parts, such astires and batteries), the contamination of waterby spilled lubricants, spilled fuel and road salt,and the adverse impacts of automobiles andhighways on cities, rural areas, and natural pre-serves are problems that also require attention.

The issues that emerge from the general prob-lem of how to prevent environmental damageby the automobile system are highly controver-sial. Public health and well-being are at stake.But so, too, is the economic health of an in-dustry that consti tutes a major share of theeconomy and provides the dominant mode of personal transportation for American workersand families. The Federal Government has aclear responsibility to protect the public in-terest, but in so doing it must be mindful of theequity of the measures it adopts.

Thus, the issues of how to protect the envi-ronment from the adverse impacts of the auto-mobile, and the policies available to the FederalGovernment to accomplish this, have an impor-tant place in this assessment.

Safety

Despite significant improvements in safetyover the years, the automobile remains a prin-cipal cause of death and injury in the UnitedStates. The number of automobile deaths in thiscountry since 1900 (2 million) is 3 times thenumber of battle deaths (652,000) suffered bythe United States in all wars. In 1977 n e a r ly48,000 Americans died as a result of motor vehi-cle crashes, and over 4.4 million were injured.2

The earliest Federal response to the highwaysafety problem came in 1924, with the First Na-tional Conference on Street and Highway Safe-

2U. S. Department of Transportation, Fatal Accident ReportingSystem, 1977 data (republication); U.S. Public Health Service,Division of Vital Statistics, 1977 data (republication).

ty. The conference dealt with matters such astraffic control, construction and engineering,education, and motor vehicle design. Many of these subjects are still controversial issues inhighway safety today.

Additional conferences were held over thefollowing three decades, but little specific actionby the Federal Government resulted. Beginning

in the 1950’s, however, a more intense interestin highway safety was displayed by Congressand the executive branch, and several programswere initiated.

The Federal Government did not becomeheavily involved in automobile safety , how-ever, until 1966 when Congress enacted the Na-tional Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act andthe Highway Safety Act. The former establishedsafety standards and mandatory inspection pro-grams for motor vehicles used in interstate com-merce. The latter provided financial assistanceto the States for highway safety programs.

At the present time, there are more than 5 0

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards inforce. Most of these apply to passenger cars.There are also 18 Federal Highway Safety Pro-gram Standards, dealing with highwa y design,driver licensing, police and medical services,and the l ike . This regulation of vehicle andhighway safety features is considered to be par-tially responsible for the reduction in the rate of highway deaths that has occurred in the pastdecade. The rate, expressed in deaths per hun-

dred million vehicle miles of travel, droppedfrom 5.7 in 1966 to 3.3 in 1977,

There are problems that may impede furthersafety improvements. The Federal Highway Ad-ministration claims, fo r example , tha t thehighway safety problem is “aggravated by thediffusion of responsibility for safety. ” 3 Anotherproblem which is cited is the reluctance of con-sumers to bear the increased costs of safetyfeatures. Also, there is a tug-of-war betweenconsumers who are resisting mandated safetyequipment as an infringement of civil rights and

some citizen groups and insurance companieswho a re push ing hard fo r deve lopment andmandated use of more safety devices in cars.

(Washington, D. C., August 1977), p. 8.

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Ch. 1—Introduction q 7

In addition to these concerns, there is thepotential for conflict between improved safetyand automobile energy conservation. Smallercars, which are desirable because of their fueleconomy, may offer less protection for occu-pants in crashes. The introduction of features toimprove crashworthiness may add to the weightof the vehicle and entail a penalty in fueleconomy.

Safety is a complex problem that involvesdriver behavior, vehicle characteristics, road-way features, and driving conditions. Safetymust be approached both as a question of vehi-cle and roadway design and as a question of use—driving habits, traffic regulation, law en-forcement, risk management. Safety is not justan individual concern. Industry has an impor-tant part to play. All levels of government—local, State, and Federal—are involved. There isno single, simple solution to the problem of highway deaths and injuries, and the public

policy questions relating to the safety of theautomobile transportation system are amongthe thorniest that must be faced.

Mobility

One of the goa ls o f soc ie ty is to enab lecitizens to take part in activities that improveand maintain their social and economic well-being. Essential to the attainment of this goal isthe ability to reach jobs, services, consumeroutlets, recreation sites, and other locations. Tothis end, the Federal Government has acted as a

major provider and regulator of transportationservices. The challenge today is to find newtechnological and institutional solutions thatwill improve the individual’s ability to reachdesired and necessary activities in a way that iscompatible with other national goals such asenergy conservation, environmental p reserva-tion, and public safety.

Federal policies supporting automobile usedate back to the beginning of this century. Thefirst act providing Federal aid for highways waspassed in 1916. The series of highway acts

which followed have provided increasinglygreater Federal support and have expanded theextent of Federal involvement. In 1956, Con-

Photo Credit U S Department of Transportatlon

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8 qChanges in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

gress enacted legislation that established the In-terstate Highway System and provided a sourceof financing—the Highway Trust Fund. In re-cent years, Federal policy has imposed numer-ous conditions on the use of highway funds,such as requirements for comprehensive plan-ning and for environmental impact assessment.Also, the types of activities that may be fi-nanced with Federal highway funds have been

expanded considerably; for example, highwayfunds may now be used for certain types of pub-lic transportation projects,

Auto use has also been supported by Federalpolicy in less direct ways. Price controls ongasoline have kept fuel costs low. Suburban andexurban development, which is heavily depend-ent on auto use, has been encouraged by Federalmortgage assistance policies. Until recently,there was essentially no Federal support forpublic transportation. Transit systems in manyurban areas deteriorated badly. Service levels

were reduced, costs rose, private entrepreneurswent bankrupt, and local governments wereforced to assume ownership and operation.Public transit, which could have provided analternative to auto use, declined further and be-came even less attractive.

Several factors have come into play recentlyto force a reevaluation of Federal policy towardpersonal transportation in general, and auto usein particular. Concern about future energy sup-ply and environmental protection has focusedattention on the automobile as a contributor tothese problems. There is increasing awareness

that mobility itself is deteriorating as a result of traffic congestion. Finally, there is concern thatsome segments of the population cannot sharein the mobility provided by the automobile.These include those who cannot afford to ownand operate a car, handicapped persons, someelderly persons, and those who are too young todrive. The decline of public transit and thegrowing dominance of the automobile oftendeprives these persons of the mobility enjoyedby others.

The consideration of mobility in this assess-

ment focuses on the future role of the automo-bile in providing mobility and on the broaderissue of the role of the Federal Government inproviding adequate personal mobility for all,either by automobile or by alternate modes of transportation.

Cost and Capital

The automobile has a far-reaching impact onthe U.S. economy. The automobile transporta-tion system, when defined in its broadest sense,accounts for approximately 10 percent of thegross national product and is the direct employ-er of about 1 out of every 18 American work-ers. 4 The employment opportunities created by

the automobile transportation system are notonly vast, but widely varied. Jobs exist in boththe public and private sectors and require suchskills as production and manufacturing, mainte-nance and repair, law enforcement, regulation,research and development, traffic management,international finance, economics, and construc-tion.

Photo Crecfit U S Department of Housing & Urban Development

One of the most complex issues concerningthe automobile is the cost of the system, on botha national and an individual scale. Along withfood and housing, automobile transportation isone of the three major items in the averagehousehold budget. It amounts to an annual totaloutlay of $130 billion and represents about 13percent of personal consumption expenditures. s

A-13.

Government Printing Office, 1977), pp. 85 and 87.

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Ch. 1—/ntroduction

Thus, policies that change the costs of auto-mobile ownership and use will have wide-rang-ing effects on the American consumer.

On a national level, the public cost of theautomobile transportation system is most visi-ble in expenditures for roadbuilding. The Fed-eral Highway Administration estimates that ap-proximately $30 billion was spent for highway

purposes by all levels of government in 1976.Federal aid, which was applied to 950,000 milesof road carrying about three-quarters of a llvehicle traffic, b amounted to about $7 billion.

The Federal Government’s investment in theautomobile transportation system is not limitedto road construction. Support is also given to

the fuel and materials industries, in th e form of depletion allowances. In addition, the types of highway projects that are eligible for Federalassistance have progressively been expanded.Federal aid is now available for relocationassistance for residents and business establish-ments displaced by road construction. Federalhighway monies may also be used for researchand development, land acquisit ion, highway

b ea ut ifica tio n, s afe ty p r og r am s , em er gen cyrelief, construction of parking facilities, educa-tion and training, noise abatement, and more.

The issues of cost and capital could have apowerful influence on the future development of th e a u to mo b i le t r a n sp o r ta t io n sy s te m. T h eassessment focuses on those areas where Federalpolicy could influence the economics of the sys-tem and the course of future technological de-velopment.

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Chapter 2.—CHARACTERIZATION OF THE AUTOMOBILETRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Page

Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Policies (A) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Technology (B). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16AutoStock(C) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Economics(D). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16Demographics(E). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17TransportationSystem(F). .. .. .. .. ... ... ......18Mobility(G) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18Automobile-Related lndustries(H). .. ... ... .....20Energy(1) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......** . . . . 2 1

Environment(J). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22Safety(K) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....**.. . . . . 22Costs(L) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....**.. . . . . 23Social Effects(M) q. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

LIST OF TABLESTable No. Page

1. Major Policies Affecting the AutomobileTransportation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2. Characteristics of the Automobile Stock, 1976 163. Selected 1976 Economic Data . . . . . . . .......174. Selected 1976 Demographic Data . . . . .......175. Highway and Transit Expenditures, 1976 .. ...186. Passenger Car Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ..197. Public Transit Ridership, 1977..............208. Financial and Economic Data for the

Automobile Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..20

9.1977 Traffic Crash Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......2310. Costs of Owning and Operating an

Automobile, 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......2311. Annual Highway-Related Displacements ... , .2412. Transportation Disadvantaged Population .. ..24

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

1. Automobile Transportation System Elementsand interrelationships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

2. Modes of Personal Transportation. . . . .......193. U.S. Demand for Oil in 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214. Sources of Air Pollution. . . . . . . . . . . . . .......225. Materials in a Typical 1978 Model Automobile. 23

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CHARACTERIZATIONOF THE AUTOMOBILE

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

CHAPTER

The automobile transportation system can bedescribed in many ways. Chapter 1 includes aninformal description that offers some perspec-tives on the role that automobiles and highwaysplay in our society, This chapter provides a dif-ferent kind of description—a more formal char-acterization that defines the major elements of th e a u to mo b i le t r a n sp o r ta t io n sy s te m a n dshows the relationships among these elements.The purpose is to describe, in quantita tiveterms, the parts of the system and to delineatethe effects that the automobile system has onsociety.

Figure 1 is a diagram of the major elements of the automobile transporta tion system. Theseelements are shown by the boxes lettered Athrough M, The arrows indicate the principalinteractions among the elements of the system.For simplicity, no attempt has been made todiagram all of the relationships. Only those thatrepresent the major l inks among the social ,economic, political, and institutional parts of

the system are shown. The diagram also illus-trates how stakeholders influence the automo-bile system and, in turn, are affected by it.

Stakeholders

The stakeholders in the automobile systemare many and diverse. In one way or another,everyone can be considered a stakeholder withinterests in the benefits conferred by the auto-mobile and in the costs that it imposes. Most in-dividuals and organizations hold not one, but

several stakes which may conflict at times. Forexample, there is the automobile owner and userwho might favor policies to promote fast anduncontested driving conditions, but who mightbe opposed to a planned highway affecting hisneighborhood and property values. Similarly,

there might be unanimity within the auto in-dustry on policies to promote the use of theautomobile, but sharp division of opinion on astandard requiring some safety device. Theparts supplier might view the standard as ad-vantageous, while the automobile manufacturermight see it as cutting into sales.

There are many examples where individuals,organizations, and institutions find different

aspects of their self-interest in conflict. Thereare also many instances in which stakeholdersmay group together on one policy issue but re-aline with other stakeholders on other issues.Because stakeholder interests are so varied andconflicting, it is not possible to show their rela-tionship to the automobile system in a simpled iagrammatic way. The lines in figure 1 con-necting stakeholders to the automobile systemare intended only to suggest the major avenuesthrough which stakeholder interests are broughtto bear and through which stakeholder interestsare affected.

Policies (A)1

There are hundreds of policies that have adirect or indirect effect on the characteristicsand use of the automobile system. For thisstudy, the l ist of present polic ies has beenlimited to those that have a major and direct in-fluence on automobiles and highways, on in-dustry structure, on institutional relationships,or on personal transportation. These policiesare cited in table 1, where they are grouped ac-cording to the five categories of issues addressedin this study.

13

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I

II

I

I

I x

III

I

II

t - o q 0 0 0 0

II

IIIII

II

I

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t

t

- - q

II.!

III1

IIIIIIII

- L

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Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System q 15

Table 1 .—Major Policies Affecting the Automobile Transportation System

Title

Energy

Emergency Highway Energy Conservation Act of 1974(PL 93-239)

Federal-Aid Highway Act Amendments of 1974 (PL 93-643)

Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (PL 94-163)

Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research and Development Actof 1976 (PL 94-41 3)

Environment

Department of Transportation Act of 1966 (PL 89-670)

National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (PL 91-190)

Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1970 (PL 91-605)

Uniform Relocation Assistance and Land Acquisition Poli-cies Act of 1970 (PL 91-646)

Clean Air Act of 1970 (PL 91-614) and 1977 Amendments(PL 95-95)

Noise Control Act of 1972 (PL 92-754)

SafetyNational Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966, and

Amendments (PL 89-563)Highway Safety Act of 1966 (PL 89-564)

Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act of 1972(PL 92-513)

Highway Safety Act of 1973 (PL 93-87)

MobilityFederal-Aid Highway Acts 1954 through 1976

Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 (PL 88-365)

Cost and Capital Highway Revenue Act of 1956 (PL 85-823)

Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act of 1972

(PL 92-513)

Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act of 1974 (PL 93-637)

Provisions

Required States to reduce speed limit to 55 mph on allhighways

Provided for carpool demonstration projectsExtended 55-mph speed limit indefinitelyStandby authority for gasoline rationingMandated new car fleet average fuel economy (27,5 mpg by

1985)

Established program to develop and demonstrate electric orhybrid vehicles

Declared a national policy to protect and preserve natural,recreational, and historic sites from intrusion by highways

Established requirement for assessment of environmentalimpacts of public works projects (including highways)

Established Council on Environmental QualityRequired development of guidelines to control adverse

economic, social, and environmental impacts of highwaysRequired Federal-State cooperation for Iong-range highway

planning 7

Established uniform policy for land acquisition and treat-ment of persons displaced by highways

Established standards for CO, HC, and NOX emissions by newautos

Required inspection and maintenance programs in certainurban areas

Authorized establishment of noise standards for productsdistributed in interstate commerce (including automobiles)

Established National Traffic Safety Agency (later NHTSA)Set safety performance standards for motor vehiclesEstablished National Highway Safety Agency (later NHTSA)Required States to have a highway safety program to reduce

reduce death, injury, and property damageRequired use of energy-absorbing bumpers

Authorized Federal-aid highway funds for safety programs andsafety R&D

Appropriated funds for federally aided highway systemsDesignated the National System of Interstate and Defense

Highways and appropriated funds thereforeProvided for use of highway funds for certain mass transit

improvementsProvided for Federal assistance in developing improved transit

facilities, equipment, and techniquesEncouraged planning and establishment of areawide masstransitProvided assistance to State and local agencies in financing

transit capital improvements and operations

Imposed a Federal tax of 4¢/gal on motor fuelEstablished Highway Trust FundEstablished pay-as-you-build principleRequired a consumer information study to examine

susceptibility to damage, crashworthyness, andcharacteristics of the repair systemProvided for diagnostic demonstration projectsProhibited odometer tamperingEstablished automobile warranty requirementsAuthorized FTC to make rules on unfair or deceptive warranty

practices

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16 qChanges in the Future Use and Characteristics 01 the Automobile Transportation System

Technology (B)

The basic technology of the automobile haschanged very little over the years. Althoughmajor improvements and refinements have beenadded, the internal combustion (Otto cycle)engine remains virtually the only means of pro-pulsion. The fuel is still almost exclusivelygasoline. Transmission, suspension, chassis,and body designs are not fundamentally dif-ferent from those of early automobiles. How-ever, the modifications that have been made tothe basic technology have made a difference,and the operating characteristics of the automo-bile have substantia lly improved over t ime.Among the innovations that have been intro-duced are the e lectric starter, the automatictransmission, power-assisted braking and steer-ing, emission control, electronic regulation of ignition and carburetion, and improved occu-pant safety and comfort.

The development of the automobile systemover the remainder of this century will be deter-mined largely by technological changes that arealready under development—alternate engines,improved drivetrains, safety devices, emissioncontro l equ ipment , and veh icle downsizing .These coming changes will be influenced morestrongly by Government policy than were thosein the past. They will place demands on theautomobile industry to improve fuel economy,reduce emissions, and increase occupant safety.Consumer preferences and acceptance of publicpolicy goals will also exert influence on auto-

mobile technology—either directly, throughmechanisms of the marketplace, or indirectly,through the political process.

The effects of national policies on automobilemanufacturers and parts suppliers will depend,in part, on the ability of the industry to generatethe capital needed for development of new tech-nology along the lines dictated by policy. Capi-tal formation, in turn, depends on consumer ac-ceptance of the products and on the profitabilityof the resulting sales mix.

Auto Stock (C)

The performance of the automobile transpor-tation system depends on the composition of thevehicle fleet and changes in the characteristics of the fleet over time. (See table 2.)

Table 2.—Characteristics of theAutomobile Stock, 1976

Percent o f Volume new car

(millions) sa les a

New car sales Subcompact . . . . . . . . . .Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . .Small luxury . . . . . . . . . .

Intermediate . . . . . . . . . .Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . .Large luxury . . . . . . . . . .

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.23 22 1.92 19 0.51 5

2.83 29 2.02 20 0.61 6

10.12

Auto fleet Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,800,000 Average age . . . . . . . . . . 6,2 yearsAnnual scrappage rate. . 70/ 0

Auto prices, operating costs, and the demand

for travel influence the level and the mix of newcar sales. Demographic factors also influencethe growth of new car sales.

The annual introduction of new cars and therate of re tirement of old cars determine therange and average of fuel economies, emissions,and performance features of the auto fleet .These characteristics, in turn, help determinetotal gasoline consumption, emissions levels,and death and injury levels.

The rate of retirement of cars is primarily afunction of age, although other factors such ascost of operation and repair, personal income,and changes in household composition also in-fluence scrappage. Less than 6 percent of thecars on the road are over 13 years old, and theaverage age is slightly over 6 years. Between 6and 10 percent of the fleet is scrapped each year.

Economics (D)

Macroeconomic conditions have a primaryand direct effect on the use and characteristics of

the auto system. The key economic factors in-clude gross national product, disposable per-sona l income, in fla t ion ra te , civ il ian laborforce, and unemployment rate. (See table 3.)

Disposable personal income and employmentare major determinants of consumer behavior.

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1,z

I*4.

Table 3.—Selected 1976 Economic Data

Gross national product ... ... .. $1.7 trillionDisposable personal income. .. .$1.8 trillionDisposable personal income

per capita. ... ... ... ... .. .$5,486Consumer pr ice index’. . .......170.5Civ i l ian labor fo rce . . . . . . . . . . . .94 .8 mi l l i onUnemployment rate . . . . . . . . . . .7 .7 percent

They influence the number and type of newautos sold, the length of time a car is kept in use,

and the amount of travel. There is a close cor-relation among household income, the numberof autos owned, and the number of miles trav-eled. When the economy is growing steadily,and when inflation rates are low and employ-me n t h igh , th ere is mo re p e r so n al in co meavailable for the purchase and use of automo-biles.

Demographics (E)

Population growth, the number and size of

households, their geographic distribution, andthe number of licensed drivers are some of thefactors that determine the size of the auto fleetand how it is used. In addition, the sex of thedrivers also influences the amount of auto use.In 1975, over 90 percent of males of driving age

* r. . . ?,

$ . .

Photo Crec//t Genera/ Motors Corpora//on

had licenses. About 70 percent of driving-age

females were licensed.2

Male drivers use au tosmore extensively than females in all age cate-gories; on the average, males drive about twiceas many miles per year as females. 3

Demographic factors, along with economicconditions, are determinants of residential loca-tion and, consequently, of population distribu-tion. The important characteristics of the cur-

4.

The nature and amount of auto travel is heav-ily influenced by land use—the pattern of resi-dences in relation to business and recreational

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18 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

centers. Density of development is also an im-portant factor. Demand for auto travel tends tobe high where residential densities are low andwhere residences are distant from commercialand recreational sites. Auto travel demand islower, on the other hand, in areas where com-mercial establishments and employment are in-terspersed with, and in proximity to, residences.

Transportation System (F)

This portion of the system is made up of thefacilities for personal transportation by autoand public transportation. It includes both high-ways and exclusive rights-of-way for publictransportation. It also includes the transporta-tion management system, which affects the rela-tionship of highways and transit and determinesthe efficiency of their combined operation.

The location and type of highway facilitiesand the number of miles in the highway system

are influenced by a variety of factors. The geo-graphic distribution of population and, par-ticularly, the juxtaposition and density of landuses determine the miles of highway needed andthe feasibility of using mass transportation tosatisfy some of the travel demand.

Federal policies strongly influence the size andlo c a t io n o f h ig h wa y s b y d e te rmin in g th eamount of funds available, the types of facilitiesassisted , a n d t h e r e la t iv e e m p h a s is a m o n gtranspor ta t ion modes . (See tab le 5 . ) Otherpolicies, such as fuel taxes and fuel-economystandards, affect Federal revenue and hence thefunds available for highway construction, main-tenance, and operation. Macroeconomic condi-

tions also affect the amount of construction andmaintenance that can be accomplished eitherwith revenues from road users or with otherlegislatively appropriated funds.

Table 5.— Highway and Transit Expenditures, 1976(billions of dollars)

Allgovernment Federa l

HighwaysCapital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14.30 $7.53’Maintenance & other

noncapitalb

. . . . . . . . . . . . 15.48 0.36Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.78 7.89

TransitCapital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NAc 1.28

d

Operating assistance . . . . . 1.65 0.43

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 1.71

Mobility (G)

Mobility, defined as the satisfaction of traveldemand, is the basic purpose of the automobiletransporta tion system and the major benefitconferred by it. The parameters of mobility arenumber of trips, trip length, number of personsserved, and the mode of transportation. Meas-ured on any of these dimensions, the automobileis the dominant form of personal transportation

in the United States. (See figure 2.) Each yearautomobiles accumulate over 1 trillion vehiclemiles and account for over 90 percent of allpassenger miles traveled. Mass transit, the major alternative to the automobile in urban areas,is an important substitute for some types of trips

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(notably the journey to work) but, in the na-tional aggregate, accounts for under 2 percent of passenger miles traveled. (See tables 6 and 7.)

Figure 2.—Modes of Personal Transportationa

Rail & water 1 °/0

Air 5° / 0

I I I I IPassenger miles (percent)

The magnitude of the effects of the auto-mobile cannot be measured solely in terms of mobility, even though this is the ultimate pur-pose of the system. The characteristics and useof automobiles have important consequences inseveral areas. These are shown in boxes Hthrough M of the automobile system diagram(figure 1) and described in the remaining sec-tions of this chapter,

Table 6.— Passenger Car Use*

Percent distribution

PercentPercent of travel

Purpose of travel of trips (VMT)

Work, includingcommuting . . . . 36 42

Family business,includingshopping . . . . . . 31 19

Education, civic,

or religious . . . . 9 5Social and

recreational . . . . 23 33

Averagetrip lengthone-way(miles)

10.2

5.6

4.7

13.1

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20 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics Of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 7.—Public Transit Ridership, 1977

Linked passenger tripsa (millions)

Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,425Trolley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Motor bus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,247

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,723

Average fare.., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.7@

Automobile= Related Industries (H)

Some indication of the importance of theautomobile system can be gained from theemployment figures for industries directly in-volved in motor vehicle production and use.

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing—1,013,000

Auto and parts retail dealers—1,152,000Auto and parts wholesale dealers–394,000

Services and garages–476,000

Gasoline service stations–624,000

Construction of highways and streets—339,000

Petroleum industries—427,000

State and local highway departments—587,000.4

In addition to these 5 mill ion employees,another estimated 400,000 people are employedby industries that serve as suppliers to automanufacturers. 5

Federal policies, in the form of automobileperformance regulations, have a major effect onthe automobile industry. Development of newtechnologies to satisfy these requirements bearsdirectly on capital needs and on employmentand profit levels in the manufacturing, auto sup-p ly , and se rv ice indust r ies . The need fo rspecialized diagnostic and maintenance equip-ment to service cars with new emission and fuel-

‘Transportation Association of America, TransportationFacts and Trends, Fourteenth Edition (Washington, D. C.:Transportation Association of America, 1978), p. 23.

‘Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor VehicleFacts and Figures ’78 (Detroit: MVMA, 1978), p. 68,

saving devices, for example, could affect theconcentration and size of firms in the auto serv-ice indust ry and add pressure on the labormarket for skilled mechanics.

Personal disposable income is directly cor-related with new car sales. Population distribu-tion, the patterns and density of land use, andthe nature and extent of the Nation’s transporta-tion system strongly influence auto travel de-mand, which in turn determines the size andcomposition of the auto fleet. Changes in fleetcharacteristics have a wide range of effects onauto-related industries, including the size andmix of new car sales, market shares among automanufacturers, employment levels, profits, andthe level of claims in the insurance industry.Table 8 presents some of the highlights of auto-mobile industry economics.

Table 8.— Financial and Economic Data for theAutomobile Industry

a(1975 dollars)

Average new car price by size classSubcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,600Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 4,200Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,650Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 4,600Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,400Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 8,000

Gross revenue per domestic car sold . . . . . . $ 4,990Annual domestic sales (thousands) . . . . . . . 8,610Annual domestic sales revenue (millions) . . $42,950Capital investment (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,640Auto manufacturing employment

(domestic) b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 948,000Profit margin (1977) (percent)c

U.S. auto industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6All manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5

U.S. auto industry net income (1977)(millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $4,590

GMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 2,960Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,480Chrysler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 145AMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5

U.S. auto industry net income as a percentof sales (1977) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6

GMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Chrysler. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (1.0)AMC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (0.3)

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Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System q21

Energy (1)

Automobile transportation is the largest con-sumer of petroleum in the United States —5.2million barrels per day, or about 30 percent of total demand. (See figure 3.) Virtually all of thepetroleum consumed as automobile fuel is in the

form of gasoline. Historically, gasoline con-sumption has grown at a rate of slightly over 4percent per year. In the years immediately pre-ceding the 1973-74 oil embargo, the annualgrowth reached nearly 5 percent . While thegrowth rate has slackened somewhat since, it iscurrently above 4 percent and rising. The an-nual consumption of petroleum by automobileswas over 78 billion gallons in 1976.

Energy consumption is directly influenced byautomobile travel demand and by propulsionsystem technology. While gasoline is now theonly significant auto fuel, diesel engines arebeginning to penetrate the passenger car fleet.Synthetic fuels (coal liquids, shale oil, metha-nol, and ethanol) and electric power are poten-tial alternatives to gasoline, but they are nowonly in the developmental stage.

Figure 3.—U.S. Demand for Oil in 1976(MMBD)

Electricitygeneration

Auto 1.6 Residential -Transportation commercial

5.2

[ 300/0

Other

truck

Small 12(

truck.9

Industrial

3.2‘2.1

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Environment (J)

The effects of automobile use on air qualityhave received wide public attention since the1960’s. Automobile emissions are considered tobe a major contributor to air pollution, primar-ily in urban areas. Automobiles are majorsources of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons,and nitrogen oxides. Figure 4 shows the relativecontribution by automobiles to a tmosphericpollution.

Noise, water pollution, and soil contamina-tion are other environmental impacts of auto-mobiles; however, in each case, other sourcesare larger contributors. The disposal of auto-mobile wastes, notably scrap vehicles, is a prob-lem of sizable proportion. Scrappage of auto-mobiles accounts for about 7 percent of all com-mercial, residential, and municipal waste in theUnited States. Since the average weight of avehicle is about 3,900 pounds, automobiles

Carbon monoxide

113.5

KEY:

comprise over 13 million tons of solid waste thatmust be d isposed o f annua l ly . Of th is , 10million tons, or about 80 percent, are salvagedand represent an important source of recyclediron, steel, and other metals. Figure 5 illustratesthe composition of a typical

Safety (K)

1978 model car.

The safety of the automobile system—meas-ured in terms of fatalities, injuries, and propertydamage—is a matter of profound concern. The1977 data in table 9 show only the rough dimen-sions of the problem, but they serve to indicatethe high price that Americans pay for mobility.

Traffic crashes in rural areas makeup approx-imately 30 percent of the total but account for70 percent of the deaths and 35 percent of the in-

juries. The condition of rural roads, the higherprevailing speeds, and

Figure 4.—Sources of Air Pollutiona

Automobile b

Hydrocarbons

30.2

Totals (million tons per year)

he unavailabil i ty of

Nitrogen oxides

20.0

Other mobilec Stationary andmiscellaneous

‘1975 Data,‘Passenger cars only,cLight-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks (gasoline and diesel), buses, motorcycles, aircratt, pipeline, marine craft, and militaryvehicles

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Ch. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation System q23

Figure 5.— Materials in a Typical1978 Model Automobile

OtherAluminum non-metal

Cast iron

SOURCE Ward’s 1978 Automo tive Yearbook, 1978

Table 9.—1977 Traffic Crash Data

Crashes a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,600,000Vehicles involveda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,800,000Injuries b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000Deaths C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,700

Auto occupants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,400Pickup, van occupants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,200Motorcycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,200Pedestrian, pedacycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,600Truck, bus, and other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,400

Estimated costd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44 bill ion

rounded

This figure does not Include

emergency medical services are major factorscontributing to the disproportionate number of rural highway deaths and injuries.

Costs (L)

The costs of the automobile are distributedthroughout the system, but they are eventuallyassumed by the public, either directly as auto-mobile users or indirectly as taxpayers. Some of these costs have been discussed earlier—for ex-ample, highway and transit costs in connection

with the transportation system (F’), new carcosts under industry economics (H), and fuelcosts under energy (I). The discussion that fol-lows deals only with costs that fall directly onthe consumer as an automobile owner andoperator.

From 1962 to 1973, the real dollar cost of owning and operating an auto declined about 6

percent. Gasoline and motor oil costs in thesame period declined more rapidly than totalcosts until the sharp OPEC price increase in1973-74 brought fuel costs back to the 1962 levelin real dollars. Auto repair and maintenancecosts, constant through the mid-1960’s, havegradually declined over the last decade by about10 percent in real dollars. Significantly, new carcosts have been declining steadily and at agreater rate than other auto-related costs—morethan a 30-percent decline in 15 years in realterms. Table 10 is a summary of the costs of automobile ownership and operation in 1976.

Table 10.—Costs of Owning and Operatingan Automobile, 1976 (cents per mile)

Type of auto

Costsa Stand- Com- Sub-ard pact compact

Depreciation . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 3.8 3.2Maintenance, accessories,

parts, and tires. . . . . . . . . 4.2 3.4 3.1Gas and oil (excluding

taxes) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 2.5 1.8Garage, parking, and tol ls . 2.2 2.1 2.1

Insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1.6 1,5

State and Federal taxes . . . 1.6 1.2 0.9Total costs per mile . . . . 17.9 14.6 12.6

Autonrobl/e, 1976, p 2

Social Effects (M)

The automobile system affords a myriad of social benefits, but it also has many adverse ef-fects on individuals and communities. General-ly, these adverse effects fall into three cate-gories:

1. Increased highway travel creates pressureto build or expand highways, leading todisruption of communities by property ac-quisition and displacement of residences,businesses, and other activities.

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2. Increased traffic volumes raise noise levelswithin neighborhoods an d endangerpedestrian safety.

3. Increased reliance on the automobile bythe population as a whole tends to drawpassengers away from public transporta-tion, shrinking its market, forcing reduc-tions in service, and contributing to in-

creases in fares. The elderly, the handi-capped, the young, the poor, and otherswithout cars may have their mobility re-duced as a result.

One measure of community disruption by theautomobile system is the number of homes andbusinesses displaced by highway construction.Table 11 shows the annual average of highway-r e l a t e d d i s p l a c e m e n t s d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d1971-75. The level has declined from the 1960’s,when highway construction was at a peak. Apart of this decline can also be attributed toFederal policies, notably uniform relocation

assistance legislation and the National Environ-me n tal P o li cy Ac t, wh ich h a v e bro u g h t in -creased efforts to prevent or mitigate the disrup-tive effects of highways.

There are some members of society who can-not share fully in the mobility afforded by auto-mobiles. Lack of access to an auto or lack of ability to use an auto is a particular problem forfour segments of the population—the old, thepoor, the handicapped, and the young. Thesesegments of the population are sometimes called“transportation disadvantaged. ”

Table 12 contains estimates of the size of thepopulation groups in which lack of mobility ismost prevalent. These estimates are given sepa-rately for adults and for the young (under 17)since many young people do not have independ-ent travel needs. The young have been includedfor two reasons: to provide a complete account

of those who lack the degree of mobility enjoyedby the rest of society and to indicate the extentto which children, who must rely on others fortransportation, generate automobile travel de-mand.

Table 11 .—Annual Highway-Related Displacements

Yearly averageType of displacement 1971-75

Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,789Business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,510Farm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209Nonprofit organization . . . . 100

reports

Table 12.—Transportation DisadvantagedPopulation* (millions)

1970

Adults (over 17)

Elderly (over 65, not poor,and not handicapped). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2Poor (not handicapped) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9Handicapped . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.1

Total adult disadvantaged . . . . . . . . . . . 37.2

Total adult population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.2

Percent of adult population . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.50/o

Young (17 and under)Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9Not handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.8

Total young . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.7

Total population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204.9

Percent of total population . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.O%

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.-

+

1

, ! ,

r ---

C/?. 2—Characterization of the Automobile Transportation Systern q25

, , J

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Chapter 3.- THE NO-POLICY-CHANGE BASELINE

Page Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .....29 19. Base Case Automobile Ownership and Use .. .38Rationale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 20. Fuel Economy Standards Assumed forFuture Population Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......40

Population Growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 21. Alternative Assumptions for Base CasePopulation Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......32 Fuel Economy Standards . . . . . . . . . . . .......41Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 22. Base Case Petroleum and Gasoline Prices. ...4l

Licensed Drivers.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 23.Summary of Base Case AutomobileMacroeconomic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . .......34 Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......42

Civilian Labor Force. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 24. World Petroleum Supply and Demand. ...,...46Gross National Product. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 25. Automobile Emission Standards forDisposable Personal Income . . . . . . . . . .......35 the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..35 26. Projected Base Case Automobile Emissions ..49

Technology Projections . . . . .. .. . .. .. . .. ......35 27. Projected Violations of Air QualityAutomobiles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......36 Standards, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......49Highways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 28. Change in Materials Used in aPublic Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......37 Typical Automobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,53

Basic Patterns of Automobile Ownership and Use 38 29. Projected Displacements Due to HighwayEnergy Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......36 Construction, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . .......53

Energy Policy and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . ..39 30. Base Case Traffic Safety Projections . .......55Automobile Energy Demand . . . . . . . . . . .......41 31. Assumed Highway Expenditures, Base Case. .57Total Domestic Petroleum Demand . . . . . . . . . . . 43 32. Highway Revenue Sources, 1975............58

Domestic Fuel Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 33. Automobile Fuel Consumption andAlternate Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . .......44 Gasoline Taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......60World Petroleum Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . 45 34. Projected Daily Urban Travel and Congestion .60

Environmental Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 35. Base Case Transit Financing Assumptions ..,63Air Quality Policy and Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . 48 36. Base Case Transit Service Levels. . . . . .......63Air Quality Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 37. Transportation Disadvantaged Population ....65Other Environmental Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 38. Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Base Case65

Safety Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 39. Change in the Distribution of TotaISafety Policy and Assumptions . . . . . . . .......54 New Car Sales, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . .......69Projected Fatalities and Injuries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 40. Estimated Gross Revenue From Domestic

Highway Projections . . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. . ... .....56Assumed Highway Expenditures . . . . . . .......56 41Assumed Highway Taxes and Revenues. ......57Projected Highway Travel Speeds

and Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..60 42Future Roadway Condition . . . . . . . . . . . .......62

Transit Projections . . . . . . . . q .”...... . . . . . . . . . . 62Assumed Federal Assistance . . . . . . . . . .......62Projected Transit Ridership . . . . . . . . . . .......64

Car Sales, Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......69Added Capital Requirements for Technologyto Meet Fuel Economy Standards: Cumulative1977-85. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......70Employment in Passenger Car andParts Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......71

LIST OF FIGURESCost and Capital Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66 FigureNo.

Automobile Manufacturing and Sales . . . . . . . ..66Page

6. Derivation of the Base Case . . . . . . . . . .......33Automobile Manufacturing Revenues . . . . . . . . .69 7. Annual Change in Consumer Price lndex .....36Capital Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......70 8. Projection of Base Case Fuel Economy .. ....42Profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..70 9. U.S. Petroleum Demand . . . . . . . ....:.... ...43Employment and Productivity. . . . . . . . . .......71 10

11

12LIST OF TABLES

TableNo. Page 13

13. Summary of Base Case Projections. . . .......29 14

14.151617.

18

Summary of Base Case Assumptions . .......31Size and Age of the Future Population .. .....32 15Future Distribution of U.S. Population. .. .....34 16Projections of Population and LicensedDrivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......34 17Summary of Macroeconomic Assumptions 18for the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......35

U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand . . .......45Projected Base Case Emissions by Source,1975-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......50Estimated Population Exposed to AirPollution, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..52Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1975 to 2000. . . . . .....56Future Highway Expenditures Assumed for

the Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......57Recent Trends in Highway User Tax Receipts .59Projected 24-Hour Average Speeds inUrban Areas, Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . .......61Base Case New Car Sales Projections. .. .....67Distribution of New Car Sales by Size-ClassBase Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......68

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The no-policy-changeserves as a reference for

SUMMARY

baseline, or Base Case,evaluation of policy al-

ternatives affecting the future automobile trans-portation system. The Base Case is a projectionof automobile system characteristics and useunder the assumption that current Federal Gov-ernment policies and programs are continued insubstantially their present form until 2000. Thisprovides a baseline for comparing the effects

and impacts that could result from pursuingalternatives to present policy.

Base Case projections of some of the more im-

portant features of automobile system charac-teristics and use for 1985 and 2000 are shown intable 13. For comparison, corresponding figuresare shown for 1975 which was selected as thebase year for this study.

One of the significant projections is that,although the number of automobiles and auto-mobile vehicle miles traveled (VMT) l will con-tinue to rise , fuel consumption will remain

roughly constant. To counter r ising purchase

otherwise stated.

Table 13.—Summary of Base Case Projections

1975 1985 2000

MobilityAutomobiles in operation (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . .Automobile vehicle miles traveled (trillions) . . . . .Urban auto travel in congested conditions

(percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Transit vehicle miles traveled (billions). . . . . . . . . .Transit ridership (billions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Energy Fleet fuel economy (miles per gallon)’ . . . . . . . . . .Automobile fuel demand (MMBD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Petroleum imports (MMBD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Environment AutomobiIe air pollutant emissions

(millions of tons per year)Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Oxides of nitrogen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SafetyHighway fatalities (thousands)c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Highway fatality rate (per 100 million miles). . . . . .

Cost and capitalNew car sales (millions)d. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

951.03

102.05.6

13.65.07.4

69.37.94.0

46.03.4

8.6

1181.43

142.36.5

19.44.8

10.0

32.63.52.7

58.43.1

13.1

1481.80

24.64.88.8b

2 7 . 3

2 . 9

2 . 9

64.02.8

16.4

2 9

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costs and fuel prices, motorists are expected toswitch to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. By1985, 70 percent of new car purchases will besmall cars, compared to a little under 50 percenttoday.

Despite the increased number of vehicles onthe road, the national aggregate of air pollutantsfrom automobiles will drop sharply from 1975

levels as a greater part of the fleet is equippedwith mandated emission control equipment.

Another direct result of the increase in auto-mobiles and VMT will be growing congestionon highways, particularly in urban areas. Thetypical urban driver in 2000 will encountercongested conditions about one-quarter of thetime, or 21/ z times more often than today.

Death and injury ratesare projected to decrease2000 as a result of

in automobile crashessteadily from now toimproved occupant

p r o t e c t i o n a n d v e h i c l e c r a s h w o r t h i n e s s .However, the absolute number of deaths andinjuries will increase. For example, highway-related deaths are expected to reach 64,000 p eryear by 2000, compared to 46,000 in 1975.

Providing there is not a severe restriction of the supply of petroleum or alternate fuels, auto-mobiles will continue to be the dominant modeof personal transporta tion through the year2000. The Federal transit assistance programsassumed for the Base Case will result in a 16-percent increase in ridership by 1985, but theeffect on automobile VMT will be negligible.

RATIONALE

The Base Case is a projection of automobilesystem characteristics and use over the next 25years, based on the assumption that presentFederal policies and programs will continue.The Base Case thus allows the results expectedof current policy in light of evolving demo-graphic, economic, and social trends. It pro-vides a quantified baseline for evaluation of alternatives, and it highlights policy issues thatmay arise through pursuit of present policies.

The Base Case has several important appli-cations in this study:

F r a m e o f R e f e r e n c e : T h e B a s e C a s eprovides a series of reference points forcomparing the effects and impacts of policyalternatives with conditions that wouldprevail in the absence of such policies.

Analytic Tool: By providing a common setof assumptions and projections, the BaseCase helps assure that analyses of policyoptions are consistent and that expectedeffects are compared systematically. TheBase Case also contributes to policy defini-tion by specifying a plausible economic and

soc ia l c l imate in which po l ic ies mustfunction.

Yardstick for Current Policies: A numberof Federal policies and programs relating tothe automobile transportation system arenow in force or are scheduled to be phased

q

in over the next few years. The Base Casehelps to define the nature and magnitude of the changes being brought about by thesepolicies.

Guide to Policy Alternatives: Projectionsof future conditions in the Base Case helpto identify problems that could occur andways to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts.

The Base Case is not a prediction of a mostprobable future. There is no intent to assert thatthe outcomes described in the Base Case will in-evitably occur or are likely to occur. Conditions

change in unforeseen ways, and Governmentpolic ies would almost certa inly not remainstatic over a period as long as 25 years. Instead,the Base Case is an analytic device that extrapo-lates the effects of present Government policiesin light of anticipated changes in social andeconomic conditions.

Neither is the Base Case a “Do-Nothing” poli-cy. The Federal Government already has manypolicies and programs affecting the automobiletransportation system. All of these are assumedto remain in force or to be extended according to

presently established schedules. It is for thisreason that the Base Case has also been calledthe No-Policy-Change Baseline, to emphasizethat it is a continuation of those policies nowdeemed appropriate for the automobile trans-portation system.

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Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline q31

The Base Case was developed from assump-tions and trend extrapolations for three classesof variables:

1. Population growth and distribution,2. Economic conditions, and3, Federal Government policy.

Population characteristics are important fac-tors in the future automobile transporta tionsystem. The number of people of various agesand their location will determine the general de-mand for personal transporta tion (by auto-mobile or other means) and the distribution of this demand between urban and rural areas andby geographic region. Macroeconomic factorsare also major determinants of automobile sys-tem characteristics and use. The economic stateof the country will have a powerful influenceboth on the automobile and the highway indus-try in general and on the resources that indi-viduals will have to spend for personal trans-

portation. The policies of the Federal Gov-ernment will set the regulatory climate for the

industry and will affect the cost and availabilityof personal transportation. Federal Governmentpolicy will also play a major part in determiningthe direction in which automobile technologywill evolve over the remainder of this century.

These three classes of variables, combinedwith descriptive models of the structure andfunction of the system, serve as the basis for

projections of future automobile characteristicsand use. The demographic and economic condi-tions described below and their effects on auto-mobile transportation are assumed to occur forthe Base Case and for each of the policy alter-natives treated later in this report. Z A s s u m e ddemographic and economic factors have beenheld constant to allow comparison of the par-ticular effects of policy options with the com-mon reference of the Base Case.

Table 14.—Summary of Base Case Assumptions(dollar amounts in constant 1975 dollars)

Assumptions 1975 1985 2000

Demographic Population (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Licensed drivers (millions). . . . . . . . . . . . .

Economic Gross national product ($ trillion) . . . . . . .Average incomea ($ thousand). . . . . . . . . .World oil price (dollars per barrel) . . . . . . .

Gasoline price (cents per gallon). . . . . . . .PolicyNew car fuel economyb (mpg) . . . . . . . . . .New car emission standards

(grams per mile)Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Oxides of nitrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Highway program funding e ($ billion)Capital expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Maintenance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Transit program funding ($ billion)

Federal assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .State and local contributions. . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

214130

1.525.03

13.00

56

—

28.03.03.1

14.313.9

233151

2.226.72

16.50

77

27.5

3.4 ‘0.41’1 .Ocd

11.217.0

250177

3.7210.0725.60

121

27.5

3.40.411.0

7.021.2

28.2 28.2

1.51 2.641.71 2.70

28.2

2.644.90

3.22 5.34 7.54

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Figure 6.— Derivation of the Base Case

ASSUMPTIONS

q

Population Economics Federalpolicy

4

1

k

J

1

Technologyprojections

,

AUTOMOBILE SYSTEMCHARACTERISTICS & USE

1 I ?

Vehicles Highways Industry Alternate& services modes

4 q

I I I I

EFFECTS AND IMPACTS1

I I I I I

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Ch. 3—The No-Policy-Change Baseline q33

FUTURE POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

The size and distribution of the future popu-lation will have a significant influence on theautomobile transportation system. As popula-tion grows, so will the demand for personaltransportation, the number of licensed drivers,

the number of automobiles, and the benefits andproblems associated with the automobile.

Population Growth

The population growth assumptions selectedfor this study are Bureau of the Census’ Series IIforecasts. The most important assumption is thecompleted cohort fertility rate of 2.1 (the aver-age number of children women are expected tohave).

Mortality is the other important factor shap-ing the population projection. A person born in1930 had a life expectancy of 59.7 years. 4 I n

1975, life expectancy was 72.7. By 2050, it willbe 76.5. 5 With these assumptions, the popula-tion is projected to grow from 213.5 million in1975 to 232.9 million in 1985, an d 260.4 millionby 2000. b

Not only will the population in 2000 be about22 percent greater than in 1975, it will also beolder. The median age in 1975 was 29 years. By2000, it is expected to be nearly 36. As shown intable 15, a greater proportion will be of driving

age. Those 65 and over, who are less likely todrive, will number about 32 million, an increaseof 42 percent from 1975.

Population Distribution

T h e t r e n d to wa rd mo re u rb a n iz a t io n i sassumed to continue. The percentage of the pop-ulation living in urban areas will increase from61 percent in 1975 to 68 percent in 2000. Centralcity population will continue to grow in abso-lute terms but will decline as a percentage of total urbanized area population as more peoplelive in the suburbs. The rural population willdecline in both number and percentage. ’ (Seetable 16. )

Households

As defined by the Bureau of the Census, ahousehold is comprised of all persons who sharecommon living quarters. In addition to the tra-ditional family, a person living alone or a groupof unrelated persons living together also con-stitutes a household. Based on the Series II projections, the number of households is expectedto grow from 71.7 million in 1975 to 87.2 mil-lion in 1985 and 109.4 million in 2000. At the

same time, household size will grow smaller,

from an average of 3.0 persons in 1975 to 2. 4persons in 2000. ”

Table 15.—Size and Age of the Future Population (millions)

1975 1975 1975

Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentTotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213.5 232.9 260.415 and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159.9 74.9 181.2 77.8 203.3 78.165 and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.4 10.5 27.3 11.7 31.8 12.1Median age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.8 31.5 35.5

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Table 16.—Future Distribution of U.S. Population (millions)

1975 1985 2000

Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentTotal population . . . . . . . . . 213.5 232.9 260.4Urbanized area population 130.1 60.5 149.0 64.0 177.0 68.0

(Central city). . . . . . . . . . . ( 66.7) (31.2) ( 70.6) (30.3) ( 75.7) (29.0)(Suburban) . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 63.4) (29.7) ( 78.4) (33.7) (101.3) (38.9)

Small urban areapopulation . . . . . . . . . . . 29.6 13.9 30.3 13.0 31.3 12.0

Rural population . . . . . . . . . 53.8 25.2 53.6 23.0 52.1 20.0

Licensed Drivers

Automobile use is closely related to the num-ber of licensed drivers. Projections of licenseddrivers in the future population were developed

from analysis of trends in the percentage of in-dividuals with licenses in each age-sex cohort.Between 1975 and 2000, the percentage of malelicensed drivers is expected to remain stable atroughly 90 percent of all males of driving age.For women, however, the proportion of licenseddrivers in the population of driving age is ex-pected to climb steadily from the present 71 per-cent to 83 percent by 2000. For the populationas a whole, the number of licensed drivers willgrow by 37 percent. (See table 17. )

Table 17.—Projections of Populationand Licensed Drivers

1975 1985 2000

Total population (millions). 214 233 260Driving age population

(millions)Men. ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 87 97Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 94 106

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 181 203

Licensed drivers (millions)Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 78 89Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 73 88

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 151 177Licensed drivers as

percentage of driving agepopulation

Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 920/ o 900/ 0 91 %Women. . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 77 83

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 83 87

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p III-69

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Civilian Labor Force

Two major factors affecting economic growthare the size of the labor force and labor produc-tivity. Currently, the civilian labor force isgrowing more rapidly than the population. ’ Thepercentage of working males is relatively stable,but the percentage of women in the labor force

is increasing markedly. In 1970, 43 percent of women aged 16 and over were in the laborforce. This proportion is expected to grow to 51

, pp. xiii-xviii.

percent by 1990. ’0 Based on these trends, thecivilian labor force of 92.6 million in 1975 isprojected to grow to 105.6 million in 1985 and122.9 million in 2000.11 Unemployment is as-sumed to decline from 8.5 percent in 1975 to 5.0percent by 1985 and to remain at that levelthrough 2000.

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Growth in the productivity of the labor forcehad averaged about 3 percent per year until theearly 1970’s, when it dropped below 2 percent.Annual labor productivity growth is assumed tore tu rn to a ro u n d 3 p e rc e n t fo r th e p e r io d1985-2000.

Gross National Product

The Base Case assumes continued economicgrowth through 2000. The gross national prod-uct (GNP) is projected to rise from $1.5 trillionin 1975 to $3.7 tr i l l ion by 2000 ( i n 1 9 7 5dollars) .12 (See table 18. ) These figures representan annual GNP growth rate of 3.5 percent—roughly equivalent to the average annual ratebetween 1960 and 1975, The GNP growth projection assumes a labor force increase of 1.2 per-cent annually to 1985 and 1.0 percent thereafter,and an assumed labor productivity growth of 3percent.

Table 18.—Summary of MacroeconomicAssumptions for the Base Casea

1975 1985 2000

Gross national product(billions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,516 $2,218 $3,716

GNP growth rate (percent) . 3.4 b 3.5 3.5Disposable personal

income (biIIions) . . . . . $1,081 $1,564 $2,620DPI growth rate (percent) . . 3 .6b 3.5 3.5DPI/GNP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.71 0.71 0.71DPI/capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5,025 $6,717 $10,068Consumer price index . . . . 161.2 2 6 1 .7 4 7 1 .3

CPI growth rate (percent)’ . 4.1 b 5.0 4.0

Disposable Personal Income

Disposable personal income (DPI)—incomeafter taxes and social insurance payments—rep-resents how much money people have for per-sonal expenditures, including automobiles andtravel. Based on an analysis of historical data, itis assumed that the ratio of DPI to GNP will be0.71 for the period 1975-2000. This value is con-sistent with the recent trend. Using this ratio, itis projected that DPI will grow from $1.08 tril-lion in 1975 to $2.62 trillion in 2000. DPI percapita will double in constant dollars—from$5,000 to $10,000 during this period. ’3

Inflation

There is great uncertainty in long-run projec-tion of prices because of the unpredictable ef-fects of inflation. In the past 10 years there have

been large fluctuations in the Consumer PriceIndex (CPI). For example, inflation reached 11percent in 1974 but dropped to about 6 percentper year by 1977. Recently, however, the CPIhas begun to rise again. (See figure 7.)

Since the main concern in this study is withlong-term trends, no attempt has been made toforecast the magnitude and timing of short-termvariations. For the Base Case, it is assumed thatinflation—as a long-term average—will declineto about 5 percent per year by 1985 and then to4 percent per year by 2000. Under these assump-tions, the CPI would rise from the 1975 value of

161 to 262 in 1985 and 471 in 2000. However,since DPI will be growing more rapidly than theCPI, the net effect will be that consumers willhave about twice as much to spend (in constantdollars) in 2000 as they do today.

TECHNOLOGY PROJECTIONS

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Figure 7.—Annual Change in Consumer Price Index

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

.

Projection

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Automobiles

Weight Reduction and Materials Substitution

It is assumed that domestic manufacturerswill continue their current downsizing program,which is expected to be completed by 1981.Downsizing and a shift of consumer preferenceto smaller cars will lead to a reduction inaverage au tomobi le we igh t o f about 1 ,000pounds. The basic elements of downsizing aremateria ls substi tution to reduce weight and

significant body restyling to shed weight whilemaintaining interior and trunk room. The use of plastics and aluminum will increase, while theuse of steel and cast iron will be reduced. Lightercars will also permit the use of smaller enginesand other components.

Fuel Economy

It is expected that the Environmental Protec-tion Agency (EPA) goals for fuel economy—27.5 mpg’4 for new cars in 1985 and thereafter—will be attained. 15 As a result, fuel consumptionfor the automobile fleet as a whole is projectedto average 19.4 mpg in 1985 and 24.6 mpg by2000. For comparison, the fleetwide average for1975 is estimated at 13.5 mpg,

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Automobile Emissions

It is assumed for the Base Case that auto-mobile manufacturers will be able to meet theemission standards specified in the 1977 CleanAir Act Amendments. A waiver on the nitrogenoxides (NOX) standard (from 1.0 gram per mileto 1.5 grams per mile) would be granted fordiesels from 1981 to 1983, but thereafter, it is

assumed that diesels would meet the 1.0-gram-per-mile standard.

Safety

New automobiles will meet the Federal MotorVehicle Safety Standards. It is assumed thatpassive restraints will be phased into all newcars over the period 1982-84 at a cost of about$200 per car.

Transmission and Drivetrain

The most significant changes expected in thisarea are:

Lockup torque converters for automatictransmissions,More manual transmissions,More front-wheel-drive vehicles, andImproved lubrication.

Engines

The Base Case assumes that no new engineswill achieve extensive commercialization before2000, but that substantial modifications will bemade to what is currently available. The spark-

ignition engine is assumed to predominate, butthe percentage of diesels will rise to 10 percentof new car sales in 1985 an d 25 percent by 2000.It is assumed that the diesel will have a more dif-ficult time meeting the NO X standard and will begranted a waiver to 1.5 grams per mile for 1981through 1983. After 1984, the diesel is assumedto meet the 1.0-gram-per -mile standard and anyparticulate standards that may be imposed.

Some of the more significant improvementsexpected in spark-ignition engines are:

S tra t i f ied charge (s ing le o r aux i l ia ry

chambers),Turbocharging,Wider use of fuel injection,Microprocessors to control air-fuel mixturemore closely, andGreater use of aluminum.


The Base Case assumes that other types of engines, even if proven successful in research,will not achieve substantial market penetrationby 2000.

Fuels

Petroleum is assumed to be the main source of automotive fuel through 2000. Production of

a l te rna t ive fue ls16

will be l imited but mightreach 2.75 MMBD by 2000 under the most fa-vorable circumstances. The use of methanol orgasoline-methanol blends is uncertain and hasbeen given low probability for the Base Case.Electric vehicles will not constitute a significantpart of the passenger car fleet, but may have in-creased use as delivery vehicles after 1985.

Highways

The basic elements of highway construction

and design are not assumed to change signifi-cantly by 2000. Some improvements in pave-ment durability and skid resistance are expectedto occur.

Modifications in the technology of highwayoperation may occur, particularly in urbanareas. The technology is available for wider im-plementation of Transportation Systems Man-agement (TSM) techniques such as high-occu-pancy vehicle lanes and ramp metering. Signingand traffic control signal systems are also ex-pected to be imp roved by 2000.

Public Transportation

Buses will remain the backbone of urban pub-lic transportation. Minor improvements in com-fort and ride quality are expected. There will beimprovements in accessibil i ty for the handi-capped and elderly, since a major part of the ur-ban bus fleet is expected to be equipped for theiruse by 1990.

There will be some shift in emphasis fromheavy rail to light rail for new urban rail transitsystems. Only a very small number of cities will

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start building new systems before 2000. How-ever, the 8 to 10 systems that now exist or areunder const ruc t ion wi l l be comple ted , ex-p an ded , o r m od er niz ed . Tech n olo gica l ad -vances beyond the San Francisco and Washing-ton, D. C., systems are not foreseen.

Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) will seeonly limited application. It is assumed that four

AGT systems will be operating by 1985 underthe Urban Mass Transportation Administration(UMTA) Downtown People Mover Demonstra-

tion Program. After 1985, a few others may beput in operation, but they are not assumed torepresent a s ignificant subst itu te for o thermodes of personal transportation.

Intercity buses, which now serve more com-munities than any other public mode of trans-portation, are expected to remain the principalalternative to the automobile for trips between

cities or between rural areas and cities. No major changes in bus technology are assumed forthe Base Case.

BASIC PATTERNS OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND USE

From the assumptions set forth so far, it ispossible to project some of the basic features of automobile ownership and use. These featuresform a pattern that can serve as a point of departure for examining the expected effects andimpacts of current policies under base case con-ditions. (See table 19. )

Two of the more significant aspects of thefuture new car market expected in the Base Casewill be a long-term trend of increasing sales anda marked shift to smaller cars. The number of

autos in the fleet will continue to rise and at arate slightly higher than population growth.The number of vehicles per licensed driver willincrease from the present 0.73 to 0.84 by 2000.

Federally mandated fuel economy standardswill probably have more influence on the typeof automobile in the fleet than any other currentpolicy. To meet the tighter fuel economy stand-ards, manufacturers will offer smaller, lightervehicles and more diesels.

Table 19.—Base Case Automobile Ownership and Use

1975 1985 2000

Annual new car sales (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 13.1 16.4

Percent of small carsa

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 66 66Percent of diesels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 10 25Total automobiles in operation (millions). . . . . . . . 95 118 148Automobiles per licensed driver . . . . .Automobile vehicle miles traveled (trillAutomobile vehicle miles traveled

per licensed driver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .EPA fuel economy standards (mpg) . .Auto fuel consumption (MMBD) . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . 0.73 0.78 0.84ens) . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80

. . . . . . . . . 7,900 9,500 10,200

. . . . . . . . . None 27.5 27.5

. . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.8 4.8

ENERGY PROJECTIONS

Historically, the growth of the automobile by 2000. The Base Case assumes that the supplytransporta tion system has been aided by an of petroleum will be reduced and that otherabundant and inexpensive supply of petroleum, sources of energy will have to be found. Thea condition that is expected to change markedly price and availability of energy—from petro-

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leum or alternate sources—will be powerful in-fluences on future automobile characteristicsand use.

No attempt is made in the Base Case, or else-where in this study, to deal with the broad na-tional problems of energy supply and demand.These include the prospects for sustaining or in-creasing domestic and foreign petroleum pro-duction, conservation of petroleum or substitu-tion of alternate sources by nontransportationusers, and reallocation of supply across andwithin domestic economic sectors. These issuesare fundamental to national energy policy andwill clearly affect the future of the automobile,but they lie beyond the scope of this assessment.

The Base Case concentrates on projectingenergy consumption by the automobile systemand the energy supply needed to satisfy this de-mand. Broader projections of supply and de-mand for the economy as a whole cannot be ig-nored, since they are inextricably bound to theautomobile system. However, they are incor-porated in the Base Case only to the extentnecessary to define the context in which theautomobile system will have to operate.


Energy Policy and Assumptions

The Base Case projections of energy con-sumption by the automobile system rest on thefollowing assumptions:

The automobile fleet will continue to de-pend on petroleum as its primary fuel to theyear 2000.

The diesel engine will be the only alter-native to the spark-ignition engine to ob-ta in a significant market share through2000.

The number of electric vehicles in use by2000 will be insignificant in terms of petro-leum conservation unless there is a break-through in battery technology. No suchbreakthrough is assumed for the Base Case.

Any transition to alternate fuels will notcome about as a result of Federal Govern-

ment subsidy of the production and use of such fuels.

The new car fuel economy standard will be27.5 mpg for the 1978- model year andthereafter until 2000.

4

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Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System 40 q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Domestic manufacturers will meet thesestandards through vehicle downsizing,materials substitution, and other energy ef-ficiency improvements. 17

Smaller cars will make up an increasinglygreater share of the fleet.

There will be no change in the degree of en-forcement of the 55-mph speed limit.

The Federal Government will continue tocontrol the price of gasoline,

Gasoline taxes will rise so as to keep rev-enues a t their present level in constantdollars.

No graduated excise (gas guzzler) taxes onautomobiles will be imposed by the FederalGovernment.

There will be no oil embargo or abrupt in-terruption of supply.

Fuel Economy Standards

The most significant Federal policy affectingenergy consumption by the automobile systemis the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act(EPCA), which sets standards for new car fueleconomy between the 1978 and 1985 modelyears. (See table 20. ) Compliance with thesestandards is determined for each manufacturersepara te ly on the basis o f average (sa les-weighted) fuel economy of the full l ine of passenger vehicles sold by that manufacturerduring the model year. Beginning in 1980, cap-

tive imports (such as Ford Fiesta and DodgeColt) cannot be included in the manufacturer’saverage. Therefore, domestically produced au-tomobiles will have to make significant im-provements in fuel economy by that time. It isalso important to note that the values listed intable 20 are based on a test cycle of combinedstreet and highway driving used by EPA tomea su re co mp lia nce . E st ima te s o f th e fu e leconomy attained under actual driving condi-tions run 10 to 20 percent Iower.lg

Table 20.— Fuel Economy Standards Assumedfor the Base Case

Sales-weighted new carModel year fleet average, mpg1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 8a

1 9a

20a

2 2b

2 4b

2 6b

2 7b

27.5a27.5/30.O C

27.5/35.O C

EPCA now sets fuel economy standards onlyto 1985, but there is the clear possibility thatst an d ar d s m ig ht b e r a is e d i n t h e p er i od1985-2000 as an extension of present policy. Toassess the effects of fuel economy standards un-

til 2000, an alternative set of assumptions wasincorporated into the Base Case. In Case A, thestandard is maintained at 27.5 mpg from 1985 to2000. In Case B, the standard is raised to 30 mpgin 1990 and 35 mpg in 2000. It is assumed thathigher fuel economy would be achieved, in part,by a greater use of diesel engines. In Case B, thepenetration of the new car market by dieselsreaches 40 percent by 2000. Table 21 sum-marizes the different assumptions for Case Aand Case B.

Petroleum Prices

Petroleum demand by the automobile systemwill be partly determined by price. Based uponan examination of several recent projections of worldwide supply and demand, it is assumedthat the price of a barrel of petroleum will risefrom the current level of $13 to $16.50 by 1985and to $25.60 by 2000 (all prices in 1975dollars). ” This is equivalent to an annual in-

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Table 21 .—Alternative Assumptions for Base Case Fuel Economy Standards

Base Case A Base Case BNew car fuel economy standards. . . . . . . . .“. . . . . . . . . . 1985 27.5 mpg 27.5 mpg

1990 27.5 mpg 30.0 mpg2000 27.5 mpg 35.0 mpg

Diesel share of new car sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1985 10 percent 15 percent2000 25 percent 40 percent

Table 22 .—Base Case Petroleum and Gasoline Prices(1975 dollars)

1975 19852000

Case A Case B

World oil price ($/barrel) . . . $13.ooa $16.50 $25.60 $25.60Gasoline price (c/gallon)

Without tax . . . . . . . . . . . 44.5¢ 65.3¢b 109.4¢ b 109.4¢ b

State and Federal taxes . 11 .7¢ 12.4¢ 12.4¢ 14.1¢

Pump price. . . . . . . . . . . . 56.2¢ 77.7¢ 121 .8¢ 123.5¢

crease of 3 percent per year in constant dollars.

The price of gasoline (excluding taxes) is alsoassumed to rise a t 3 percent per year. 20 Gasolinetaxes (State and Federal ) are assumed to rise at arate that would keep revenues at the 1975 levelin constant-dollar terms. The resulting changein the price of gasoline a t the pump is a rise from$0.56 per gallon in 1975 to $1.21 per gallon by

2000. (See table 22. )

Automobile Energy Demand

During the 1960’s, fleet fuel economy declinedsteadily. This trend was reversed by the mid-1970’s as a result of domestic manufacturer’s ef-forts to improve fuel economy and the growingpopularity of smaller cars, particularly fuel-efficient imports. The estimates prepared for theBase Case, shown in figure 8, a ssu me th a tmanufacturers will meet the 1985 fuel economy

standard of 27.5 mp g .Fuel consumption projections for the Base

Case are shown in table 23. Two measures of

fuel economy are shown—the EPA certificationvalues used to determine compliance withEPCA standards and estimates of mpg under ac-tual driving conditions.

Under the Case A assumptions, automobilefuel consumption in 1985 would be 5 percen tlower than in 1976. Thereafter, consumptionw o u l d stay close to the 1985 level, as further

fuel efficiency gains would be counterbalancedby rising VMT. However, under Case B, autopetroleum consumption could fall an additional12 percent by 2000. 21 Whereas diesel fuel con-sumption by automobiles is negligible today, itwould rise to 18 percent of automobile fuel usedby 2000 in Case A and 29 percent in Case B. Be-tween 1975 and 2000, fuel economy for the fleetas a whole under actual driving conditions isprojected to increase 82 percent in Case A and107 percent in Case B. Since fleet size and VMTare identical for the two cases, the difference isa t t r ibu tab le so le ly to h igher fue l -econom y

standards and the increased use of dieselsassumed for Case B.

11-117 I , ) - ‘i I - 1

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35

30

25

20

15

10

Figure 8.—Projection of Base Case Fuel Economy

.

.

I

I

- - -0 9 - - - -

I

I

0 ,0

I

y 19.4

b 16.9 ~o

.15.3-

Assumptions Case A Case B-13.7 EPA Standard (MPG) 1985 27.5 27.5

1 2000 27.5 35.0I Diesel penetration 1985 10.0 15.0

(Percent of new cars) 2000 25.0 40.0. I b q

1 1 1 I I I 1 1 I

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

‘Motorcycle travel Includedin fuel economy 1960-64

SOURCES Trend data, Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures ’77, p 62.Projections, OTA andSydec EEA, pp. III-101-109

Table 23.—Summary of Base Case Automobile Energy Demand

20001975 1985’

Case A Case B

Automobiles in operation (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 118 148 148Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80 1.80Diesel penetration (percent of new car market). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (b) 10 25 40New car fuel economy (mpg)

EPA standardc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . None 27.5 27.5 35.0Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 28.5 29.4 35.0Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0 23.2 25.0 29.8

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 24.0 28.5 32.9Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 19.4 24.6 28.0

Annual fleet fuel consumption rate (billions of gallons)Gasoline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0 70.6 60.2 45.7

Diesel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (b) 3.3 13.1 18.7Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0 73,9 73.3 64.4

Fleet fuel consumption (MMBD). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.2Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.6 23.9 21.4 19.3

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Total Domestic Petroleum Demand

The projected consumption of petroleum bythe automobile system must be set in the contextof the projected unconstrained demand for fuelby the country as a whole in 1985 and 2000.Estimates of unconstrained domestic petroleumdemand 22 are presented in figure 9.


The assumptions made in reaching these esti-mates are:

q The fuel economy of smallmain unregulated. 23

q There will be no significantin the fuel efficiency of large

trucks will re-

improvementstrucks.

Figure 9.— U.S. Petroleum Demand

20

15

10

5

22.4 MMBD

Electrical 0.6

20.1 MMBD Residential &commercial

Electrical 311.5

17.5 MMBD Residential &4 commercial

Electrical 2.71 6

.Industrial

6.1Residential &commercial

3.5 Industrial5.6

IndustrialRail, air,

3.2water

3.9Rail, airwater

Rail, air. 2.9water

,

2.1,

TruckTruck

1,9Truck 3.9

2.6

Auto5.2 Auto

4.8

Auto4.8

1976 1985 2000

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Petroleum consumption by other transpor-tation modes (rail, air, and water) will con-tinue to rise with expansion in the economyand population growth.

The use of oil by industry will grow withthe economy and the inability to expandnatural gas supplies. Regulation, such as inthe National Energy Plan, which could sig-

nificantly lower the growth in industrialuse has not been assumed for these esti-mates.

Demand in the residential and commercialsector will fall slightly by 1985 because of greater use of electricity in new homes andthe installation of energy-saving measuresby homeowners and businesses. The bene-fits of these trends will be offset after 1985by population growth, and consumption inthis sector will begin to rise again.

There will be an increase in the use of coal

Domestic Fuel Supply

The supply of conventional petroleum fromdomestic sources is assumed to rise sl ightlythrough 1985 with the introduction of produc-tion from the Alaskan North Slope. North Slopeoil production is expected to reach a maximumof 2 MMBD and hold steady at that rate until2000. This would raise the total domestic supplyto 10.1 MMBD in 1985. Beyond 1985, the sup-ply from the lower 48 States (including theOuter Continental Shelf) is expected to taperoff, declining to a production of 5 MMBD by2000. Thus, the total domestic supply in 2000would be only 7 MMBD, or about 30 percent of the total unconstrained demand. To meet thedomestic demand of 22.4 MMBD in 2000, it

would be necessary to find 15.4 MMBD of fuel,either as petroleum imports, alternative fuels orequivalent electrical energy from nonpetroleumsources. (See figure 10. )

for generation of electricity.Alternate Energy Sources

There are a number of resources that can beused to produce motor fuels similar to conven-tional gasoline or diesel fuel. These fall into fourgeneral categories.

1. Synthetic liquid fuels (synfuels),2. Alcohol fuels,3. Electricity, and4. Fuel cells using hydrogen, hydrazine, or

blended fuels.

Synthetic fuels and alcohol or alcohol blendsare assumed to be the most l ikely a lternateautomobile energy sources by 2000. No signifi-cant production of synthetic fuels is foreseenbefore 1985. By 2000, however, technical andeconomic factors point to production of liquidfuels from oil shale and coal. Extensive commer-cialization of alcohol fuel (ethanol or methanol)is inhibited at present by economic factors.However, the disparity between alcohol andconventional petroleum prices is expected to bereduced by the mid- to late-1990’s. 24

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Ch. 3— The No-Po/;cy-Change Base//ne q 4 5

Figure IO.— U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand(MMBD)

25

20

15

10

5

0

22.4

20.1

17.5

10.1

1 I I I 1

Demand forpetroleum Importsand alternate

Alaskan

Lower 48

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act calls forthe demonstration of 200 vehicles by 1979 and7,500 by 1984. ” The major obstacle to the useof electric power for automobiles is the develop-ment of improved batteries that can performbetter than the present lead-acid battery, whichis considered unacceptable in terms of perform-a nce, ra n g e, a n d we ig h t , No ma jo r b rea k -through in battery technology is assumed forthe Base Case, and it is expected that the marketpenetration of electric vehicles (while it mightreach as much as 10,000 vehicles per year by2000) will cause negligible changes in national

petroleum consumption.

Fueltion isbe an2000.

cell technology for automotive applica-still in its infancy and is not expected toimportant alternative to fossil fuels by

World Petroleum Supply and Demand

The Base Case projections of U.S. fuel con-sumption indicate that the combined uncon-strained demand of all sectors will exceeddomestic supply by as much as 10 MMBD in1985 and over 15 MMBD by 2000. There isgrave doubt on technical, political, and eco-nomic grounds that the level of petroleum im-ports needed to meet this shortfall could be, orshould be, reached or sustained.

In 1976, the combined demand of the World

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Outside Communist Area (WOCA) nations, in-cluding the United States, was 49.4 MMBD. Of th is , OPEC suppl ied 30 .7 MMBD, and theUnited States supplied 10.1 MMBD. (See table24. ) In order to meet the demand of 84 MMBDprojected for WOCA in 2000, OPEC productionwould have to increase to 62 MMBD, aboutdouble current production.26 The ability of theOPEC nations to double the rate of petroleum

production over the next two decades is tech-nically doubtful. OPEC (principally MiddleEastern) reserves are generally estimated to belarge enough to fulfill such a world demand, butit is not certain that it is physically possible topump oil from the fields at a rate of 62 MMBD.There is also doubt that present production,transportation, and refining facilities could beexpanded as rapidly as necessary. Analysis per-formed in connection with this study indicatesan optimistic value of 56 MMBD and a pessimis-tic value of 34 MMBD. A middle estimate of 45MMBD was thought to be realistic in terms of

portraying background world petroleum supplyfor the Base Case. However, this figure is anassumption more than an estimate and couldstill be too high on purely technical grounds .27

Even if it is assumed that the technical prob-lems of production could be surmounted, thereremains doubt about the economic feasibility of an OPEC production rate in the range of 50 to60 MMBD. The OPEC nations may concludethat their petroleum is more valuable” to them inthe ground as a future resource than it is on theimmediate market. OPEC already has difficultyin making efficient use of present petroleumrevenues. For economic reasons, the OPEC na-tions—severally or collectively—may choose tohusband production to keep pace with theirability to utilize capital, especially since de-ferred production may lead to greater futureprofits.

The Base Case assumptions about worldpetroleum supply are also extremely sensitive to

international political factors. The United Statesnow uses more energy per capita than any othermajor country,28 and the rest of the world is

Table 24.—World Petroleum Supply and Demand

(MMBD)

20001976 1985

Case A Case B

Domestic demandAutomobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2Other transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0Other sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3

Total domestic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.5

Other WOCAa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.7Total WOCA demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.4

Domestic supply Lower 48 and OCSb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1Alaska. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . —

Total domestic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.7Other WOCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7

Total WOCA supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.5

4.85.59.8

20.1

41.0

61.1

8.12.0

10.1

38.013.0

61.1

4.87.89.8

22.4

62.0

84.4

5.02.0

7.0’45.015.0

67.0

4.27.89.8

21.8

62.0

83.8

5.02.0

7.0’45.015.0

67.0

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Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline q 47

conscious of this extravagance. The future in-ability of the United States to conserve energy(especially petroleum) could lead to seriouspolitical disagreement with other WOCA na-tions on how to share the available level of OPEC petroleum, whatever it may be. Withinthe OPEC nations, there are additional politicalpressures that might militate against satisfyingWOCA (or U. S.) demand.

From the viewpoint of the U.S. economy, thepresent level of imports has already damagedthe U.S. position on balance of payments. In-creasing the percentage of imports to between55 and 70 percent by 2000 (depending upon

whether 2.75 MMBD of alternative fuels can beproduced) may prove to be a burden that theUnited States cannot sustain for either economicor political reasons.

T h u s , th e fu n d a me n ta l c o n c lu s io n to b edrawn from the Base Case projections of energydemand for the United States as a whole and forthe automobile system in particular is that the

Nation faces the possibility of a severe shortageof petroleum before 2000. The automobile willstill be a major user of petroleum at that time,and a determination will have to be made as tohow much further to reduce automobile fuelconsumption.

Pho!o Credit Environmrental Protection Agencv

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECTIONS

Environmental protection has been a focalpoint of Federal Government policy since the1960’s. An important, and often controversial,feature of this policy has been the effort toreduce or mitigate the effects of widespread andintensive automobile use. Heaviest emphasis

has been placed on control of automobile emis-sions and environmental impacts of highways,but other effects–noise, disposal of solid andliq u id w a st es , a n d w a t e r co n ta m in a t io n —deserve attention.

Air Quality Policy and Assumptions

The Clean Air Act of 1970 (Public Law91-614) and its amendments provide for controlof six forms of atmospheric pollutants—carbonmonoxide, nitrogen dioxide, photochemical ox-idants, hydrocarbons, suspended particulate

matter, and sulfur dioxide. Of these, all but thelast two are emitted by automobiles in signifi-cant quantities. The current standards for auto-mobiles, established in the 1977 amendments tothe Clean Air Act, apply to emissions by newcars through the 1981 model year. The stand-ards specify the permissible levels of carbonmonoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitro-gen oxides (NOX) that an automobile may emitper mile over its useful life (defined as 50,000miles). The standards and the schedule for theirattainment are shown in table 25.

Table 25.—Automobile Emission Standardsfor the Base Case

Standard (grams/mile)

Model year CO HC NOx

1975. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.5 3.11976 -79 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.5 2.01980. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 0.41 2.01981-83 (spark-ignition). . . . 3.4 0.41 1.01981-83 (diesels) . . . . . . . . . 3.4 0.41 1.51984-2000 (all vehicles). . . . 3.4 0.41 1.0

For the Base Case, it is assumed that the 1981standards remain in force until 2000. During theperiod 1981-83, when automobile NO X s t a n d -ards will be 1.0 gram per mile, it is assumed thatdiesels are granted a waiver to 1.5 grams permile to allow time for improvement in diesel

emission control technology. It is further as-sumed that by 1983, these improvements willhave been effected and that thereafter all auto-mobiles (whether powered by a diesel or aspark-ignition engine) will be able to meet the1.0 gram-per-mile standard.

An important factor in estimating futureautomobile emissions is the rate at which emis-sion control devices deteriorate in use. The cur-rent certification procedure is based on an esti-mated average level of emissions over the usefullife of the vehicle, which is defined as 5 years or50,000 miles. For this study, the deteriorationrates assumed are the January 1978 estimatesissued by EPA. These estimates cover not onlythe 50,000-mile certification period, but the fulllife of the car.29 The emission rates assumed forother mobile sources and stationary sources arealso those currently estimated by EPA. 30

The Clean Air Act Amendments provide forthe application of an inspection and mainte-nance program for vehicles in use in areas whereNational Ambient Air Quality Standards forcarbon monoxide or oxidants are not expectedto be attained by 1982.31 To date, few such pro-grams have been instituted under the Act, andthe Base Case assumes that none will be man-dated by the Federal Government by 2000 .32

Air Quality Projections

Base Case projections of automobile emis-sions are shown in table 26. CO, HC, and NOX

emissions are expected to decline from currentlevels by 1985, and further still by 2000. Thegreatest reductions are in CO and HC emissions

nology Division,

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Table 26.—Projected Base Case Automobile Emissions

1975 1985 2000

Million tons/ Million tons/ Percent Million tons/ PercentPollutant year year of 1975 year of 1975

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . 69.3 32.6 47 27.3 39Hydrocarbons’ . . . . . . . . 7.9 3.5 44 2.9 37Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . 4.0 2.7 68 2.9 73Particulates b . . . . . . . . . . 0.38 0.08 21 0.25 66LeadC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.04 27 0.03 20

(over 60 percent for each by 2000). NOX e m i s -sions are expected to decline by 1985 but to riseagain by 2000 as a result of the growing use of diesels.

Projections of particulate emissions are sen-sitive to the proportion of diesels in the fleet.Particulate emissions would drop by threequarters between 1975 an d 1985, but would

climb back as diesel penetration increases.It should be noted that all types of vehicle

emissions reach the lowest levels in the mid-1990’s. Assuming a 13-year vehicle turnover,almost all of the vehicles on the road at thattime will be of a vintage designed to meet thecurrently programmed standards. As travel in-creases, the reductions due to lower vehicleemissions are offset by increased VMT.

A projection of aggregate emissions from allsources was prepared using EPA data on emis-sions from nonautomotive mobile and station-

ary sources. (See figure 11. ) Automobiles are ex-

pected to account for only minor fractions of CO, HC, and NOX emissions from all sourcesby 2000. The improvement due to control of automobile emissions will be offset by a muchslower decrease (and in some cases an increase)in emissions from other sources. As a result, airquality is not anticipated to reach the levelsspecified by National Ambient Air QualityStandards in many areas of the country by 1985

an d 2000.

Table 27 indicates the number of Air QualityControl Regions (AQCRs) where violations of air quality standards are projected for 1985 and2000. Violations of the 8-hour CO standard (10m g / m 3) in 2000 are expected to fall to aboutone-third the 1975 level. Extreme violations(twice as high as the permissible level) show themost dramatic decrease, falling from 25 in 1975to 2 in 2000. Violations of the oxidant standard(160 µ g / m 3 in a l-hour period), although ex-pected to show some decline, will continue to be

high. It is projected that the oxidant standard

Table 27.— Projected Violations of Air Quality Standards, Base Case

Pollutant 1975 1985 2000

Carbon monoxideNumber of AQCRsa exceeding standardb . . . 43 34 22Number of AQCRs exceeding 2X standard. . 25 3 2

Total violations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 37 24

Oxidants Number of AQCRs exceeding standardc. . . . 49 46 41Number of AQCRs exceeding 2X standard. . 20 11 8Number of AQCRs exceeding 3X standard. . 8 2 3

Number of AQCRs exceeding 4X standard. . 7 3 2Total violations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 62 54

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50 Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

2000

c o 1985

1975

Figure 11 .—Projected Base Case Emissions by Source, 1975-2000

I21% (55% of 1975 total)

1(84% of 1975 total)

I

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Million tons per year80 90 100 110 120

2000

1985

1975

(72% of 1975 total)

I 70% (82% of 1975 total)

1

2000

1985

1975

10 20Million tons per year

30 40

I 73 ”/ 0

I

I

10 20 30 40

Key

Auto

Non-automobile

Stationary & miscellaneous

SOURCE: SydecEEA, p. Ill-119

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Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline * 51

will be violated in about 25 percent of theAQCRs in 1985 and in slightly over 20 percentof the AQCRs in 2000. However, as shown infigure 11, the principal contributors to the highlevels of oxidants will be stationary sources(about 70 percent). Of the remainder, automo-b i les wi l l account fo r about one- th i rd , o rroughly 10 percent of the total.

Figure 12 shows projected cumulative popula-tion exposure to CO and oxidants in 1985 and2000. The number of people exposed to CO con-centrations above the standard is expected todecline sharply by 1985, and further still by2000. The projection for oxidants, however,shows only marginal improvement between1975 and 2000. Although the number of AQCRsin violation of the oxidant standard will de-crease, the population in the areas that remainin violation will increase. The net result is thatby 2000, the number of people exposed to haz-ardous concentrations of oxidants is expected to

be about the same as today. Obviously, notevery person in a given AQCR will be exposedto exactly the same level of pollutants and forthe same duration. The projections shown infigure 12 are only approximations, but they doindicate the magnitude of the air pollution prob-lem that is expected to persist.

Other Environmental Projections

Base Case projections of environmental im-pacts were l imited to a ir quali ty , the most

significant environmental concern in the futuredevelopment of the automobile system. No at-tempt was made to develop estimates of othertypes of environmental impacts. However, theBase Case does include general projections of other environmental trends that are expected toresult from continuation of present policies.

Noise

Efforts to control motor vehicle noise havefollowed two approaches—control of the source

(the vehicle itself) and highway planning anddesign standards for noise abatement, EPA hasestablished noise standards for medium andheavy trucks, which call for the noise level to bereduced to 75 dBA (decibels absolute) by 1983.EPA has announced its intent to issue regula-

tions for motorcycle and bus noise during 1978.

EPA is now evaluating noise test data forautomobiles, which may become candidates forregulation by the 1980’s. The Federal HighwayAdministration (FHWA) has established designnoise levels for highways, and assessment of noise impacts is a regular part of the planningand approval process for federally assistedhighway projects.

In the Base Case, noise conditions are not ex-pected to change substantially in the short term.However, in the long term and for specific com-munities with severe automobile congestion,motor vehicle noise could reach levels that re-quire Federal or local government intervention,either to control noise sources or to restrict theconditions of motor vehicle use. The quieting of medium and heavy trucks under EPA regulationwill reduce traffic noise levels in many areas,particularly where commercial truck use is con-centrated and on arterial routes carrying signifi-

cant truck traffic. Restricting bus engine noisewill reduce sound levels in central business dis-tricts and in residential neighborhoods alongbus routes. However, these reductions will bepartially offset by the increased volume of truckand bus use forecast under Base Case condi-tions.

It appears that automobile noise will notbecome so severe that stringent controls willhave to be imposed. For the automobile trafficvolumes projected in the Base Case, automobilenoise is not expected to rise significantly above

present levels or to become a general environ-mental problem. Continuing attention to noiseimpacts in highway planning and to noise abate-ment measures in highway design will combineto improve noise conditions in many areas inthe future.

Solid Waste

The problem of disposing of solid wastesfrom automobiles (including scrap vehicles andcommonly replaced parts) varies with the size of the fleet and the weight and composition of the

vehicles. In the Base Case, the automobile fleetis projected to increase approximately 50 per-cent by the year 2000. Assuming that the scrap-page rate remains about as it is now, the numberof vehicles to be salvaged or otherwise disposedof will reach 11 million per year by the end of

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Figure 12.—Estimated Population Exposed to Air Pollution,

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Carbon monoxide

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

i !

I I I 1 I I I I10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 20-22 22-24 2 4 +

Milligrams per cubic meter

I9I

:

I

II

I

! fI o

: : 19751

II

:o I

i i I0 0 - -I I I I 1 I I

160- 240- 320- 4oo- 480- 560- 640- 720- 800+240 320 400 480 560 640 720 800

Micrograms per cubic meter

SOURCE: Sycfec EEA, p 111-120,

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the century. However, because of the downsiz-ing trend, the total weight of scrapped vehicleswill increase by only 20 to 30 percent.

An important part of the downsizing programis the substitution of lightweight alloys, alumi-num, and plastics for iron and steel. Table 28 il-lustrates the material composition of presentand future automobiles, By 1990, the ferrous

metal component is expected to decrease; alumi-num, plastic, and nonmetallic components areexpected to increase. Difficulty in the recoveryor disposal of these nonferrous componentsmay tend to increase the problem of how to han-dle solid wastes from the automobile in an envi-ronmentally acceptable manner.

Table 28.—Change in Materials Used ina Typical Automobile

Percent

Material 1975 1990

Steel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 54Cast iron . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 8Aluminum . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 12

Other metal . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3Plastics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9Other nonmetal. . . . . . . . 12 14

ogy Corporation

The diesel engine is heavier than the conven-tional spark-ignition engine. Although someweight reduction would be possible in dieselautomobiles, the engine weight is expected tokeep the diesel auto heavier than a conventionalauto. There is expected to be little substitutionfor steel and cast iron in the diesel engine, andprocesses for recovering these metals are ex-pected to remain in use.33

Two other components may pose specialproblems—the catalyst materials in catalyticconverters, and batteries. Problems with the lat-ter could become much more significant if elec-tric vehicles begin to be used in significantnumbers.

these impacts vary principally as a function of local conditions, no national projections of water quality have been attempted for the BaseCase.

Water pollution from automobiles or high-way runoff has not been the subject of majorcontrol efforts, In most areas, discharges fromindustrial facilities and sanitary sewage systems

pose much greater water pollution problemsthan automobiles and highways. However, asthese major sources come under stricter control,a ttention may shift to highway runoff andautomobile liquid wastes—both of which willbe increasing as a result of more highwaymileage, more vehicles, and more VMT.

The composition of water pollutants from theautomobile transporta tion system is not ex-pected to change greatly in the next 25 years.However, there are two possible exceptions.First, there could be a change in the type andamount of certain pollutants due to the increas-ing number of diesel vehicles on the roads. Sec-ond, the increasing use of electrically poweredvehicles may create problems due to spillage ordisposal of battery acids. At this time, onlylimited information is available on the natureand magnitude of the problems of treating anddisposing of these liquid wastes.

Highways and the Community

One of the impacts of the highway program isthe disruption caused by the displacement of

homes and businesses. To indicate the amountof community disruption, estimates were madeof the displacements of residences, businesses,farms, and nonprofit organizations. (See table29. ) The methodology relating these displace-

Table 29.— Projected Displacements Due toHighway Construction, Base Case

Average annualdisplacements

Water Quality Actual Projected

Both highway construction and use cause 1971-75 1985 2000Residential units. ., . . . . . . 10,800 5,500 4,300

water quality impacts. So, too, does the dis- Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,500 1,800 1,600posal of liquid wastes from automobiles (spilled Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 200 160fuels, Lubricants, coolants, battery acid). Since Nonprofit organizations. . . 100 80 70

SOURCE Sydec EEA p Ill 191

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ments to Federal highway expenditures took constructed, and displacements are expected tointo account both the cyclical natur e of th ese decline on an average basis. The rate of residen-statistics and projected long-term averages. As tial units displaced yearly will decline to aboutthe rate of capital spending decreases in real 40 percent of today’s rate by 2000. Other in-dollars, fewer miles of new highways will be dicators will also decline, but not as much.

SAFETY PROJECTIONS

Safety Policy and Assumptions

The safety of the automobile system of thefuture will depend upon changes in the design of automobiles, in the design of the highway sys-tem, and in the performance of drivers, as wellas on changes in the amount and distribution of driving exposure (VMT). Of the large numberof possible Federal policies that would bringabout such changes, either alone or in combina-tion, the most significant new policy included in

the Base Case is the assumed introduction of passive occupant restraints in automobiles.

Passive restraints are assumed to be intro-duced in new cars according to the schedulerecommended by the Secretary of Transporta-tion:

q All large cars sold in 1982 will be equippedwith passive restraints.

Photo Credit U S Department of Transportation

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q

q

All intermediate cars sold in 1983 will havepassive restraints.All cars sold in 1984 and after will havepassive restrain ts.34

Est imates o f the cost o f the a i r cush ionrestraint system or its equivalent vary widely.The Department of Transportation forecasts acost of $112 per vehicle for production in quan-ti ty . Ford and General Motors estimates are$193 and $235, respectively. ” For the BaseCase, it was assumed that air bags would add$200 to the price of a new car.

The existing Federal Motor Vehicle SafetyStandards that have been incorporated in cur-rent new car designs are assumed to remain ineffect in the future. These standards have beenadopted over a period of several years and in-clude requirements for specific safety -relatedequipment and performance specifications forvehicle design elements. The changes beingbrought about by these regulations are assumed

to affect most of the auto fleet by 1985. The BaseCase also assumes that other Federal automobileand highway safety programs will continue, butat current levels of funding and effectiveness.These include:

Alcohol and dru g use countermeasures, Improved d river skills and awareness,q Enforcement of the 55-mph speed limit, Roadside hazard and grad e-crossing elimi-

nation, Improved highway d esign and control sys-

tems,

Improved em ergency med ical services,q Improved crashworthiness, and Automobile safety inspections.

Projected Fatalities and Injuries

The most important factor affecting crashrates between now and 2000 will be the growthin VMT. Generally speaking, fatalities and in-

juries will increase in direct relation to thenumber of vehicles on the road and the amountof travel. Other contributing factors will be the

increase in urban congestion and the growingproportion of small cars in the fleet. Two fac-to rs cou ld have a counte rva i l ing e ffec t . Agreater proportion of travel is expected to occuron the Interstate System, which is designed for ahigh level of safety. The introduction of passiverestraints in all new passenger cars after 1984will help reduce deaths and lessen the severity of injury.

These factors were taken into account in de-veloping the Base Case projections of deathsand injuries which are presented in table 30.These values fall within the range of estimatesobtained in other recent studies of future high-way and automobile safety .36

From table 30, it can be seen that the numberof crashes increases proportionately with VMT.The number of deaths and injuries in 2000 areexpected to be about 40 percent greater than in1975. However, the rate of growth will be onlyabout half that of VMT. The growth in the num-

ber of fatalities is illustrated in figure 13.

Table 30. —Base Case Traffic Safety Projections

VMT (trillions)a. . . . . . . . . . .Traffic crashes (millions)b .Total injuries (millions). . . .Debilitating injuries

(millions)c. . . . . . . . . . . .Fatalities (thousands). . . . .Fatality rate per 100 million

VMT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1975

1.3316.54.0

3.4

1985

1.8422.9

5.0

2.257

3.1

20002.32 –-

28.85.5

2.564

2.8

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70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

Figure 13.—Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1975 to 2000

20,000

10,000

1 I I I

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SOURCE: OTA projection using Base Case VMT adjusted for total vehicle travel

The fatality rate per 100 million miles of trav- passive occupant restraint systems beginning inel is expected to decline from 3.4 to 3.1 between 1982. By 2000, virtually all cars on the road willnow and 1985 and to 2.8 by 2000. The major be equipped with such devices.contributing factor will be the introduction of

HIGHWAY PROJECTIONS

Assumed Highway Expenditures q

Since 1960, total highway expenditures by alllevels of government have been relatively stablein constant dollars. However, the distribution

q

of these expenditures between capital improve-ments and noncapital expenses has been shift-ing. Capital expenditures have declined steadilyto approximately half of the total. (See figure q

14. )

For the Base Case, it is assumed that the trendwill continue and that noncapital items, espec-ia lly maintenance, will consti tute a growing q

share of highway expenditures by Federal ,State, and local governments. Specifically, the

Ba se Ca se a ssu mp t io n s o n h ig h wa y e x p e n d i - .tures are as follows:

Ž Total highway spending by all levels of government will remain constant in realdollars from 1975 to 2000.

Capital expenditures, as a proportion of total expenditures, will continue to drop by1 percent per year from 50 percent in 1975

to 25 percent in 2000.

Maintenance and other noncapital itemswill continue to increase 1 percent per yearas a proportion of total highway costs.

The Interstate System will be completed by1990, using about $38 billion of the cumu-lative $257 billion (1975 dollars) capital ex-penditures for the period 1976-2000.

The Highway Trust Fund and other financ-ing mechanisms will continue in their pres-ent form.

To qualify for Federal assistance, urbanarea plans will have to include provisionsfor Transporta tion System Management(TSM), but no special funding category willbe created for this purpose.

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q

q

q

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Figure 14.— Future Highway Expenditures Assumed for the Base Case

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

< Expenditures by Federal, State, and local governments

SOURCE Sydec EEA, III-33

Federal matching shares in all categoricalgrant programs will not change.

There will be no new sources of funding fortransit within the highway program.

Technically, there is no Federal fundingnow available to States for maintenance.However, some of the Federal assistanceclassified as capital is authorized for resur-facing, rehab il ita t ion , and res to ra t ion o f roads and bridges. Federal a id for these“3-R” activities is assumed to continues ’

Table 31 is a summary of the highway ex-penditures assumed for the Base Case.

Assumed Highway Taxes and Revenues

The primary source of funds for Federal andState highway programs has been the gasolinetax. In 1976, $12.6 billion was collected from

Table 31 .—Assumed HighwayBase Case

1995 2000

Expenditures,

ExpendituresItem (billions, 1975 dollars)

1975 1985 2000

Capital outlay. . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 11.2 7.0Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 10.8Other (administration,

police, debt). . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 8.3 10,4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 28.2 28.2

SOURCE 1975 data, Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Mofor Veh/c/eFacts and F(gures ’77, p 89

this source by all levels of government. Othersources include tolls, parking fees, propertytaxes, and general fund appropriations. Table

32 summarizes the sources of revenue for high-way purposes in 1975.

Approximately two-thirds of a ll h ighwayrevenues in 1975 came from direct user charges.However, fuel tax revenues, which make up alarge share of such direct charges, have been

.j 1-1,7, ( ) . ; - -,

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declining slightly in real terms since 1970. (Seefigure 15. ) While the amount of driving (andhence fuel tax revenues) has begun to increaseagain since the dip caused by the 1973-74 oil em-bargo, it is expected that automobile gasolineconsumption will level off in the 1980’s becauseof mandated fuel econom y improvements. (Un-der Case B assumptions on fuel economy, auto-m o b i l e f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n w o u l d a c t u a l l y

Table 32.—Highway Revenue Sources, 1975(millions)

Receipts Amount Percent -

Highway user taxesFederal trust fund revenues $ 5,699 19.9State and local . . . . . . . . . . . 11,542 40.3Tolls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,263 4.4Parking fees . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 0.4

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18,624 65.0

decline. ) Other taxes and feesProperty taxes and

To support a constant level of highway ex- assessments . . . . . . . . . . 1,662 5.84,077 14.2

Miscellaneous taxes and fees 408 1.4on gasoline and diesel fuel would be increased asneeded to maintain revenues at their present Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,147 21.5

level. The assumed fuel consumption and taxesOther incomea . . . . . . . . . . . 3,877 13.5

.are listed in table 33. Other sources are assumed Total receipts . . . . . . . . . . $28,648 100.0

to provide the same proportion of revenues as in1975.

Figures ’77, pp 85-89

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U)

/ /

/ /

/

/

/

\

\

/

/

/ II

\

1

\

I \

I \

.

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Table 33.—Automobile Fuel Consumption and Gasoline Taxes

20001975 1985

Case A Case BAnnual fuel consumption

(billion gallons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76-0 73.3 73.9 64.4

Percent of 1976 consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 96.4 97.2 84.7Gasoline tax necessary to hold receipts at

1975 level (1975 cents/gallon). . . . . . . . . . . 11.7 12.0 12.1 13.8

Projected Highway Travel Speeds

and Congestion

The amount of travel, highway speeds, andthe level of congestion are indicators of how thehighway system serves the needs of motorists.Under Base Case assumptions, tota l annualvehicle miles traveled by automobiles is projected to increase from 1.03 trillion to 1.43

trillion in 1985 and 1.80 trillion in 2000. Th eaverage annual rate of growth in automobileVMT over the 25-year period is 2.3 percent peryear— considerably lower than the 3.8-percentannual ra te during 1960-75. The amount of automobile travel per capita also would con-tinue to increase, but at a rate much lower thanthe 1960-75 trend.

Between 1975 and 2000, VMT on rural roadsare expected to increase by 60 percent. Becausethese roads are now used well below theircapacity, it is anticipated that they can ac-commodate increased demand without affecting

travel conditions. Since the projected ruraltravel growth is expected to be greatest on thehigher class roads (for example, a 115-percentincrease is forecast for rural interstates), averagerural traffic speeds will remain virtually un-changed

In urban areas, where there is already con-siderable congestion in peak periods, congestionwill worsen under Base Case assumptions since

road construction is not expected to keep pacewith traffic growth. Three main effects are an-ticipated:

q

q

q

Peak periods will increase in duration.

A growing proportion of automobile travelwill occur under congested conditions—lopercent in 1975, 14 percent in 1985, and 24percent in 2000. (See table 34. )

Average daily speeds will drop on allclasses of urban roads, with urban freewaytravel in 2000 about 30 percent slower thantoday. (See figure 16. )

Table 34.—Projected Daily Urban Travel and Congestion

1975 1985 2000

Daily Percent Daily Percent Daily Percentauto occurring auto occurring auto occurringVMT under congested VMT under congested VMT under congested

(millions) cond it ions a (millions) conditions (millions) conditionsInterstate. . . . . . . . . . . . . 288 10 447 18 643 34Other freeways

and expressways . . . . 170 11 262 18 382 30Other principal

arterials . . . . . . . . . . . . 465 16 606 21 796 29

Minor arterials. . . . . . . . . 331 8 431 10 564 22Collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 5 196 7 259 15Local . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230 N.A. 285 N.A. 355 N.A.

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,634 10 2,227 14 2,999 24

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52

1975

Figure

50

1985

16.


Photo Credit U S Department of Transpor!afjon

—Projected 24-Hour Average Speeds in Urban Areas, Base Case

35

2000

(Miles per hour)

50

47

36

1975 1985 2000

Interstate highways Other freeways and expressways

30 29 28

1975 1985 2000

Minor arterials

28

1975

27 26

1985 2000

Collectors

33? 31

29

1975 1985 2000

Other principal arterials

34 33l — 30

1975 1985 2000

All roads

SOURCE Sydec EEA, p III-79

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this Act are programmed$3.7 billion by FY 1982,

to rise to about

The cost of new buses is increasing, partlydue to Federal regulations requiring provi-sions for the e lderly and handicapped.These regulations will also affect costs of rail vehicles and stations.

There are increasing pressures to expand

transit systems to conserve energy andreduce air pollution. However, there issome question whether new rail systemswill result in overall energy savings . 40

UMTA has made formal commitments orcommitments in principle to at least sixheavy or light rail systems. ”

UMTA has begun a demonstration pro-g r a m f o r D o w n t o w n P e o p l e M o v e r s .Although the current budget is only $220million, funding for additional systemsmay be approved if the first four test in-

stallations prove successful.

The cost of bus and rail transit systems isgreater than local or State governments canafford on their own. UMTA regards thesesystems as one of the keys to improving thequality of life in urbanized areas.42

Table 35.—Base Case Transit FinancingAssumptions

(millions, 1975 dollars)

1975 1985

Federal capital fundsa. . . . . $1,210 $1,710Local matching shareb . . . . 300 430Operating revenue 2,000 1,420Operating cost. . . . . . . . . . . 3,710 4,620Operating deficit. . . . . . . . . 1,710 3,200Federal operating

assistance . . . . . . . . . . . 300 930Local share of deficit . . . . . 1,410 2,270Total Federal aidc . . . . . . . . 1,510 2,640Total local burdend . . . . . . . 1,710 2,700

2000$1,710

4301,4206,8205,400

9304,4702,6404,900

In view of these factors, it is assumed for theBase Case that the Federal Government willcontinue to increase capital assistance for publictransit by 10 percent a year in current dollarsuntil 1985, This will result in a 1985 capitalassistance program of $1.7 billion (1975 dol-lars), compared with $1.2 billion in 1975. Be-tween 1985 and 2000, it has been assumed Fed-eral capital assistance for transit will remain at

$1.7 billion per year. Assumptions for Federalassistance to public transit are listed in table 35.

The assumed level of Federal assistance wouldallow the transit fleet to grow by about 46 per-cent between 1975 and 2000. Fixed guidewaymiles would increase by 54 percent. (See table36. )

Table 36. —Base Case Transit Service Levels

1975 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles. . . 560 650 860

Rail cars, . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,800 15,700Buses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400Transit vehicle miles

(millions)Bus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,540 1,800 2,260Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450 520 690

Total ., . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950

In addition to capital assistance, Federal aid isalso provided for transit system operation undersection 5 of the Urban Mass Transportation

Act—the so-called “Formula Grants Program. ”Funds are allocated to urban areas with popula-tions over 50,000 by a formula weighted ac-cording to population and density. These fundsmay be used either for capital expenditures orfor defraying transit operating costs. To date,94 percent of the grants have been used foroperating assistance, and cover about 20 to 25percent of the annual national transit operatingdeficit .43

Through 1985, the Federal formula grants

percent a year in current dollars and then to re-main constant until 2000. However, operatingcosts will continue to increase because of theservice expansion resulting from the capital pro-

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gram and because of inflation .44 As shown intable 35, the annual operating deficit wouldgrow from $1.7 billion in 1975 to $3.2 billion in1985 and $5.4 billion in 2000. The assumed $930million in Federal operating assistance wouldcover only 17 percent of the deficit by 2000.

Continuance of transit operations would be amajor burden on State and local governments.Their contributions to cover operating deficitswould triple over the next 25 years—rising from$1.4 billion in 1975 to nearly $2.3 billion in 1985and $4.5 billion in 2000. In contrast , localcapital expenditures, which are assumed tofollow Federal capital aid at a 20:80 matchingratio, would rise only 40 percent—from $0.3billion in 1975 to $0.43 billion annually between1985 and 2000. The total annual subsidy re-quired of State and local governments in 2000would be $4.9 billion.

Projected TransitThe projections of

on three factors:

Ridership

transit ridership are based

1. Changes in fares,2. Changes in service levels, and3. Changes in personal income.

For a number of years, transit fares rosegradually in constant-dollar terms. However,Government support for transit in the early1970’s generally stabilized fares. Between nowand 1985, average transit fares are assumed to

remain at their current-dollar levels (a decreasefrom 33 cents in 1975 to 20 cents in 1985 inconstant-dollar terms). Between 1985 and 2000,average fares are assumed to remain at 20 cents(in 1975 dollars). The effect would be a 40-per-cent reduction in real fares, which, by itself,would lead to a 16-percent increase in ridership.

As shown in table 36, transit vehicle miles areassumed to increase by 17 percent from 1975 to1985 and an additional 30 percent by 2000. Theeffect of this, by itself, would increase transitridership by 6 percent between 1975 and 1985and 10 percent more by 2000.

Disposable personal income per capita isassumed to double between 1975 and 2000.

Thus, individuals will have more money tospend for automobile transportation and will beable to afford more easily the higher costs of us-ing an automobile as compared to using transit.Additionally, it is expected that the public willattach greater importance to travel time dif-ferences than to cost differences between auto-mobiles and transit. The result of increased per-sonal income, by itself, would cause a 15-per-

cent decline in transit travel by the year 2000.From the combined effects of lower fares, in-

creased service, and higher disposable income,transit ridership is expected to grow from 5.6billion passengers in 1975 to 6.5 billion passen-gers in 1985, an increase of 16 percent. Rider-ship would remain at the 1985 level through2000. This transit rider increase is expected tohave a negligible effect on miles of automobiletravel. Despite the increase in ridership, realtransit revenues are projected to decline 29 per-cent in the 1985-2000 period due to the signifi-cantly lower transit fares. (See table 35. )

Part of the rationale for Federal involvementin public transportation is concern for the spe-cial mobility problems of those referred to as“transit dependent” or “transportation disad-vantaged. ” Four groups, recognized as having ahigh degree of dependence on public transporta-tion or poor access to automobiles, are the old,the physically handicapped, the poor, and theyoung. Estimates of the present and future sizeof these groups are given in table 37.

In each of the first three groups, many of the

individuals are in fact quite able to manage theirpersonal travel, either by walking, auto, or pub-lic transit. For many of the poor, the high costsof auto ownership preclude this mode as theprime means of travel. In 1974, 84 percent of allhouseholds owned a vehicle.45 In comparison,automobile ownership in households with an-nual incomes under $3,000 was 46 percent. Inhouseholds earning between $3,000 an d $5,000

per year, auto ownership was 64 percent. ”

The youngest of the young are parent-de-pendent, and most would not be allowed to

travel far from home without adult supervision.However, those who are over 10 and capable of

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Ch. 3— The No-Policy-Change Baseline . 65

unsupervised travel find that, without publictransit, most metropolitan area activities are in-accessible. Travel by the young who are drivenby their parents involves costly double roundtrips, with associated increases in energy con-sumption, environmental effects, and inconven-ience to the driver.

The elderly and handicapped will benefit less

from improvements in conventional transit butwill continue to receive limited service fromvarious special programs provided for theirneeds. Since the funding for such programs isassumed to remain constant while the numberof elderly will be growing, these special serviceswill meet a diminishing share of their transpor-tation needs.

Base Case transit ridership projections, in-cluding those for the transportation disadvan-taged, are shown in table 38.

The preceding estimates are for conventional

public transit, which consists of buses, heavy

Table 37.—Transportation DisadvantagedPopulation (millions)

1970 1985 2000

Adult disacdvantaged (over 77)

Elderly (over 65) not poorand not handicapped . . . . 10.2 13.4 15.7

Poor( not handicapped) . . . . 9.9 11.6 13.0Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.1 17.1 17.2

Total adult disadvantaged 37.2 43.6 46.9

Total adult population . . . 135.2 170.6 191.4

Percent of adultpopulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5% 25.6% 24.5%

Young population (17 and under)

Handicapped. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 0.9 1.0Not handicapped . . . . . . . . . 68.8 61.4 68.0

Total young . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.7 62.3 69.0

Total population . . . . . . . . 204.9 232.9 260.4

Percent of total population . 34.00/. 26.7% 26.5%

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec EEA p Ill 42

Table 38.— Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Base Case(millions)

1970 1985 2000

Percent of Percent of Percent of

Rides total rides Rides total rides Rides total ridesConventional transit Elderly and handicapped

(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 7 520 8 560 9Poor (over 17, not elderly,

not handicapped) ... , . . 820 14 1,040 16 1,170 18

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 23 1,360 21 1 , 5 2 0 23

All transportationdisadvantaged. . . . . . . . . 2,650 44 2,920 45 3,250 50

Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 55 3,560 55 3,230 50

Total conventionalriders hip. . . . . . . . . 5,930b

6,480 6,480

Services for elderly and handicapped

Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 91 520 93 560 93Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 9 40 7 40 7

Total service . . . . . . . . . . 480 560 600

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66 Ž Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

rail, and light rail. Two other forms of transit,Automated Guideway Transit and paratransit,were considered in the Base Case. It was con-cluded that neither would have a substantial ef-fect on automobile use or on transit service inth e 1975-2000 period.

Paratransit refers to types of public transpor-tation that do not operate on fixed routes or

schedules, and that bridge the gap between theservices provided by the private automobile andthose of conventional public transit. Paratransitincludes taxis, jitneys, dial-a-ride, vanpools,

and other shared-ride systems. With the excep-tion of shared-ride systems that are privatelyorganized, most paratransit has a higher costper ride than conventional transit and requires aheavy subsidy to survive. The Base Case as-sumes no special Federal funding of paratransitservice. Funding of any expansion of paratransitservice that might occur under Base Case condi-tions is assumed to be part of the overall Federal

transit assistance described earlier. The aggre-gate effects of paratransit on automobile andpublic transporta tion are antic ipated to beminor for the Base Case.

COST AND CAPITAL PROJECTIONS

Automobile Manufacturing and Sales

Sales of new cars are extremely sensitive tothe business cycle, to changes in travel demand,and—as observed in 1974—to the availability of gasoline. For the Base Case, no attempt wasmade to forecast annual fluctuations in sales.Base Case projections were limited to estimatinglong-term trends in new car sales and in the sizeof the automobile fleet.

Although new car prices are expected to in-crease slightly in real terms under Base Caseconditions, the impact on sales will be offset bythe generally positive trend in the economy as awhole and by relative stability in the combined

costs of ownership and operation. As a result,new car sales are projected to increase from 10.1million in 1976 to 13.1 million in 1985.47 T h eaverage annual increase in the rate of sales dur-ing this period would be 2.9 percent (comparedwas 2.1 percent in the past decade). After 1985,w h e n t h e g r o w t h i n p o p u l a t i o n , licenseddrivers, and VMT would be somewhat slower,sales are expected to increase at an annual rateof 1.7 percent —resulting in 16.4 million new carsales in 2000. (See figure 17. )

One of the most important developments in

automobile technology in the near future—brought about by the influence of the EPCA fueleconomy standards—is the expected increase in

the number of passenger cars and light trucksequipped with diesel engines. In 1978, it is ex-pected that about 1 percent of the new cars soldwill be diesels. The degree of market penetrationby diesels in the 1985-2000 period will dependon a number of factors:

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Public acceptance of the diesel as a substi-tute for the spark-ignition engine,

The ability of diesels to maintain their cur-rent fuel economy advantage (about 25 per-cent) over the spark-ignition engine andother propulsion systems,

Fuel economy standards beyond 1985,

The ability of diesels to meet NO X emissions ta n d a rd s a n d th e w i l l in g n e ss o f th eGovernment to grant a waiver until thenecessary technology can be developed tocontrol NOX from diesels,

The need to control the high level of pres-ently unregulated diesel particulate emis-sions,

Public tolerance of odor and smoke fromdiesel exhaust, and

The operating cost,trainability of dieselstion and use.

reliability, and main-in large-scale produc-

Alternative sets of assumptions were madefor the Base Case, as summarized earlier in table21. For the higher fuel economy standard of Case B to be met, a higher penetration of diesels

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Ch. 3—The No-Policy-Change Baseline q 67

16

14

12

10

Figure 17.—Base Case New Car Sales Projections(Domestic and total sales)

16.4

.

8

6

I4

r I

Historic I Projection

2 4I

*

II I 1 1 I 1 1 I I

SOURCES

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

would have to come about—is percent of newcar sales in 1985 and 40 percent-in 2000. Also,the waiver provision for the NO X e m i s s i o nstandard would be applied to diesels for theperiod 1981-83 to encourage their development.The difference in fuel consumption in 2000 be-tween Cases A and B iy 12 to 13 percent.

The penetration of imports” is also importantin assessing impacts on domestic auto-relatedindustries. Between 1966 and 1977, imports rosefrom 7.3 percent to 18.6 percent of domesticsales. ” For the Base Case, it is assumed that im-

ports will be about 18 percent of domestic salesfrom 1978 to 2000.

Another important trend is the expected shiftin the composition of the auto fleet by size andclass. As shown in figure 18 and table 39, smallcars (subcompacts, compacts, and small luxury)are estimated to rise significantly as a propor-tion of the fleet—growing from 46 percent in1976 to 69 percent in 1985. It was not deemedrealistic to project any further change in thesize-class distribution between 1985 and 2000,Therefore, the 1985 new car market shares wereassumed to remain constant to 2000.

For the Base Case, the general projection isthat the size of the automobile fleet will continueits steady growth through 2000. The total num-

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30

25

20

15

10

5

Figure 18.— Distribution of New Car Sales by Size-ClassBase Case

\

1 \ Intermediate

\ - - - - - - - - - 0 - - - - - - 0 - 0 - 9 0 . 0 , 0 0 0 . -

0 -

.

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995

SOURCE: Sydec/EEA, Supplementary Report.

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Table 39.—Change in the Distribution of Total New Car Sales, Base Case

Percentage Volume (thousands)Percent

1976 1985a 1976 1985 change

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 30 2,225 3,940 + 77.1Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 30 1,921 3,940 + 105.1Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 9 506 1,196 + 136.4Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 16 2,831 2,111 – 25.4Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 7 2,022 936 – 53.7Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 7 606 936 + 54.4

Totals b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,110 13,059 + 29.2

ber of autos in operation is expected to increasefrom 95 million in 1975 to 118 million in 1985and 148 million in 2000. As a consequence, thegeneral pic ture for the automobile industry(manufacturing, sales, service, fuel distribution,and other auto-related enterprises) is one of sus-tained growth.

Automobile Manufacturing Revenues

The revenues of domestic automobile manu-facturers will be influenced by changes in price,volume, and mix. It is estimated that Govern-me n t -ma n d a te d e q u ip me n t to a c h ie v e fu e leconomy, emissions, and safety standards willadd $400 to $500(in 1975 dollars) to the price of a car by 1985 over the price of a comparable1976 car. Since the cost of achieving Govern-ment standards is assumed to be roughly thesame for all cars regardless of size, the effect will

be a greater percentage increase for low-pricedmodels than for expensive cars.

It is anticipated that the average revenue perdomestic car sale in the United States (includingdealer markup and preparation) will not in-crease in proportion to the volume of salesbecause of the change in mix. Gross revenues(including dealer markup) are projected to in-crease from an estimated $42.9 billion in 1976 to

$56.0 billion in 1985 in 1975 dollars, with theprice of the average new car increasing from$4,988 to $5,224. (See table 40. ) This estimateassumes that the relative prices of cars (ex-cluding the impact of Government standards)will remain the same among size classes. How-ever, some of the change in mix representsdownsizing, with little or no change in optionsor interior space. Consequently, the relativeprices for downsized cars may be higher. Fur-thermore, changes in price structure may resultfrom pricing policies designed to reflect con-sumer demand patterns or to encourage con-

sumers to buy smaller cars in order to meet thecorporate average fuel economy standards.

Table 40.— Estimated Gross Revenuea From Domestic Car Sales Base Case

1976 1985

Per Total Per Totalcar revenue car revenue

sold (million) sold (million)

Subcompact. . . . . . . . $3,600 $ 3,276 $4,083 $ 9,176Compact. . . . . . . . . . . 4,200 8,068 4,706 18,540Small luxury . . . . . . . . 5,650 1,825 6,126 3,296Intermediate. . . . . . . . 4,600 13,023 5,089 10,745Standard. . . . . . . . . . . 5,400 11,424 5,888 5,513Large luxury . . . . . . . . 8,800 5,333 9,274 8,671

Totals . . . . . . . . . . . $4,988 $42,949 $5,224 $55,940

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Capital Requirements

Production of the kind of automobile dictatedby consumer preference and Government re-quirements will impose major demands on theindustry to raise capital for product develop-ment and new plant and equipment. No attemptwas made to project the total capital require-ments of the industry between now and 2000.However, the following partial estimates serveto indicate the probable magnitude of the in-dustry’s need for capital.

The U.S. Department of Transportation hasestimated the industry investments that wouldbe necessary for various technologies to meetfuel economy standards.50 The total capital re-quirement through 1985 is approximately $7.6

billion, or about $1 billion per year. (See table41. ) For comparison, the annual capital invest-ment by the industry for all purposes—annualmodel change, improvement of plant and facil-

ities, and tooling—averaged about $3.7 billionfor the period 1969-76. For the years 1973 a n d1974, it averaged about $4 billion annually .51 52

Profits

The profitability of motor vehicle manufac-turing varies considerably from year to year andfrom company to company. On the whole, theindustry’s return on equity and profit marginscompares favorably with manufacturing gen-erally. 53 For Base Case conditions, the key fac-tors affecting profits are:

q The anticipated growth in sales,

q The increased capital and manufacturingcosts resulting from meeting Governmentstandards, and

q The change in the new car sales mix. 54

The rate of growth in sales projected for theBase Case represents a significant increase overthe rate of growth experienced in recent yearsand tends to improve the outlook for industryprofits. The costs of meeting Government stand-

ards are expected to increase the price of newcars, but not to the point where sales or profitsare affected significantly.

The impact of sales mix on profitability is

5

’Sydec EEA, pp . 111-174 to 111-177.“NO attempt is made to assess the impact on profits of trends in

other lines of business engaged in by manufacturers—includingforeign operations, trucks and truck parts, and nonautomotiveenterprises. The impact of each on the overall profits of the autocompanies is considerable. For instance, GM sold more than 3 mil-lion trucks in 1976, manufactured 1.6 million cars and trucks over-seas, and genera ted $7.5 billion in overseas sales and $438 m i 1 lionin defense and space work. General Motors Corporation, Anuual Report, 1976.

Table 41 .—Added Capital Requirements for Technology to Meet Fuel EconomyStandards: Cumulative 1977-85

Total capitalUnits requirement Capital per

Technology (millions) (millions) unit

Downsizing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 $6,250 $625Material substitution . . . . . 10 375 37.5Improved spark-ignition

engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 250 25

Three-speed automatictransmission withtorque converter lockup 10 200 20

Diesel engines. . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 562 375

$7,637

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assumed to be adverse. Projections indicate anincrease of $486 in the average price per car, butan increase in revenue per car of only $230, dueto the shift to smaller cars. A 1976 study of twodomestic manufacturers indicatesable profit margin is less for smalllarge ones. ”

Severa l fac to rs cou ld o ffse t

that the vari-cars than for

the possibledecline in profitability caused by the growingshare of the market captured by small cars:

q

q

q

q

Savings in material costs due to downsizing(possibly $200 per car),

Improvements in productivity, due to pro-ducing smaller cars in greater volume,

General improvements in technology andefficiency, and

Sales volume growth above expectations,

which would result in lower fixed costs percar.

No quantification of future industry profitswas attempted,

Employment and Productivity

In recent years, productivity (output peremployee) in automobile manufacturing hasgrown at the rate of 2.7 percent per year. If pro-ductivity continues to increase at this rate, aslight decline in automobile manufacturingemployment could come about by 1985. H o w -ever, because of expected increases in othertypes of motor vehicle manufacturing (trucksand buses), overall employment in the industryis expected to remain relatively constant, as ithas since 1967.56 (See table 42. )

Table 42.—Employment in Passenger Car and Parts Manufacturing

EmploymentDomestic i n domestic Domesticnew car automobile new car salessales a manufacturing b per employee

1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,454,000 796,000 9.361975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,053,000 772,000 9.13

1976 ...., . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,611,000 809,000 10.651985 Base Case. . . . . . . . 10,707,000 791,000 13.54

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Chapter 4

OVERVIEWOF POLICY

ALTERNATIVES

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Chapter 4.— OVERVIEW OF POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Page

Scope of Policy Alternatives Considered . . . . . . . 75SRI Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

The Relevance Tree Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Policies Analyzed by SR1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Sydec Policy Sets ..**.*.. . . . . . . . . . .**...*.. 99Petroleum Conservation . ..................101

Improved Environment . ...................101Increased Mobil i ty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . .102Improved Accessibility.. . .................103


43. Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives. . . . 99

LIST OF FIGURESFigure No. Page

19. Relevance Tree for Energy Issues . . . . . . . . . . 7820. Relevance Tree for Environment Issues . . . . . 8221. Relevance Tree for Safety Issues . . . . . . . . . . . 84

22. Relevance Tree formability Issues . . . . . . . . . 9023. Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital issues.. 94

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OVERVIEW OF POLICY

4

CHAPTER

ALTERNATIVES A

SCOPE OF POLICY ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED

The automobile assessment considered poli-c ies to deal with the five groups of issues:energy, environment, safety, mobility, and cost

and capital. As the first step in selecting thepolicies to be examined, the Office of Technol-ogy Assessment (OTA) held workshops attend-ed by advisory panel members, consultants, andcontractors. The purpose of these workshopswas to identify a range of policy alternativesand to select those that seemed most promisingfor study. The two contractors reviewed theworkshop results and, with the guidance of OTA, made a further selection of those thatwould be subjected to detailed analysis.

One contractor, SRI, was directed to use arelevance tree approach to policy selection. 1 Th erelevance tree is a hierarchical classification of issues, response strategies, general policies, andspecific measures to implement policies. The ar-ray of policies thus identified was very broad—too broad for all to be examined within the timeand funds available. In consultation with OTA,SRI therefore narrowed the list of prospectivepolicies to the following sets:

q Energy: Reduction of petroleum consump-tion and development of alternative energysources,

Environment: Reduction of automobileemissions,

q Mobility: Alternatives and complements tothe automobile,

q Cost and Capital: Highway supply, financ-ing, and pricing decisions and control of consumer costs of automobile use.

No safety policies were considered by SRI.

The System Design Concepts team (which in-cluded Energy and Environmental Analysis andThe Institute for Safety Analysis) was directedto take a somewhat different approach.2 Policieswere aggregated in four sets, each designed toaccomplish a general objective:

Petroleum Conservation

q Improved Environment

Increased Mobility

q Improved Accessibility

Policies relating to safety and cost and capitalwere incorporated in each of the policy sets, butthey were not treated as principal and moti-vating concerns. Potentia l changes in auto-mobile system technology were also incor-porated in each policy set.

75

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76 qChanges in the Future Use and Characteristics ot the Automobile Transportation System

SRI POLICY ALTERNATIVES

The Relevance Tree Approach

The relevance trees used by SRI are intendedto i l luminate the re la tionships between theautomobile system and public policy. Basically,

the relevance tree is a classification of types of Government responses to problems, sets of poli-cies appropriate to deal with these problems,specific policy measures within the policy sets,and (if the relevance tree is appropriately ex-tended) effects and impacts that may be ex-pected from the policies. Thus, the relevancetree identifies a hierarchy of elements to be in-cluded in the analysis of alternative policies af-fecting the automobile system. Separate rele-vance trees were developed for each issue areain the automobile assessment. (See figures 1 9

through 23. )

In the construction of a relevance tree, succes-sively more specific levels are defined in the pro-gression from issues to policy implementation.

Level 1: Issue Area.—The issue area or subject of concern is a general class of prob-lems related to the automobile system. Forthis study, the five areas of greatest concernare energy, environment, safety, mobility,and cost and capital.

Level 2: Policy-Related Problems.—A pol-

icy-related problem is one that may requirelegislative or executive action to resolve.For example, a policy-related problem inthe energy area is the possibility of a gas-oline shortage resulting from inadequatesupplies of petroleum (due to an embargo,political unrest abroad, or lack of success inexploiting domestic reserves). The problemmay be real and present, or potentia l .There is no shortage of gasoline now, and itis not certain there will be one within thenext two or three decades. But the possibili-ty of such a shortage exists, and its impacts

would be sufficiently severe that anticipa-tory action should be considered. In genral,a problem is listed on the relevance tree if itmeets three criteria: there must be a signifi-cant probability that it could occur; if it oc-curs, the consequences must be severe; and

q

q

q

q

the Government can initiate action to re-duce the likelihood of occurrence or the se-verity of the consequences.

Level 3: Issues.—An issue is a matter of dis-agreement or dispute between two or more

parties. It involves value judgments andpossible jeopardy to the interests of one ormore parties. Statement of the issue for therelevance tree requires that it be formulatedin a way that identifies possible Govern-ment responses.

Level 4: Strategies.—Entries at this levelidentify the general strategies that might beadopted to deal with the issue: regulations,taxes and subsidies, Government-spon-sored research and development, operationof free-market forces, public information

programs, or Government reorganization.These listings will be virtually the same forall issues, since they are simply the com-mon and proven ways o f dea l ing wi thproblems. To limit the number of policiesand policy sets included in the relevancetrees, primary consideration has been givento the first three strategies listed above,

Level 5: Policy Sets.—A policy set is a gen-e ra l so lu t io n to a p ro b le m, w i th in a nadopted strategy. It does not include thespecific measures that might be employedto implement the policy. For example, inthe environmental area , amendment of automobile emission standards would be apolicy set within the strategy of regulation.The definition of emission standards for in-dividual pollutants would constitute a spec-ific policy within this set and would belisted at the next level on the relevance tree.

Level 6: Individual Policies.—In the exam-ple just given—amendment of emissionstandards—it would be possible to devisealmost any number of different specificstandards for automobile emissions. Judg-

ment must be exercised in choosing a num-ber large enough to cover the spectrum of technical and political possibilities butsmall enough to avoid proliferation of therelevance tree. The policies listed later inthe relevance trees for each issue area are

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Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates q 7 7

those that, in the judgment of OTA, repre- six levels of the tree were considered ade-sent reasonable and realistic choices. Since quate to define a wide range of alterna-others might also be considered appropri- tive policies affecting the automobileate, the policies shown should be regarded system.as only illustrative.

Level 7. —Add itional levels could be ad dedto the tree to gain either more specificity inthe definition of policies or greater compre-

hensiveness in the structuring of the policyanalysis. Sequentially r these levels are:

—Implementation methods,

—Categories of effects and impacts,

—Specific effects and impacts,

—Consequences for stakeholders,

—Measures to mitigate the adverse impactsof the policy, and

— E f f e c t s a n d i m p a c t s o f m i t i g a t i o nmeasures.

No attempt was made to elaborate the

Policies Analyzed by SRI

Figures 19 th rough 23 show the re levance

trees developed for each of the five issue areas.Each tree identifies a range of policy alternativesthat could be adopted to deal with the issues.Since the range is broad and the number of in-dividual policies is large, only a few could betreated during the assessment. These are shownby shaded boxes at Level 6 of the relevancetrees.

Some of the policies enumerated on the SRIrelevance trees were also analyzed by SystemDesign Concepts (Sydec), as described in thefollowing section of this chapter. For reference,

the policies examined by Sydec are indicated byrelevance trees to this detail since the first an asterisk on the relevance trees.

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Figure 19.—Relevance Tree for Energy Issues

1. Issue area

2. Policy-relatedproblems

3. Issues:

To what extentand how shouldthe Governmentestablish and

implement newpolicies. . .

Energy

u*

There is a potential forshortages in the supply ofpetroleum over the next

several decades.

I

rI

Shortages in fossil fuelsupplies will eventually bring I

I about a switch to IL - 1

m

- I 11 I

A Bn

. . . To encouragea reduction in

consumption of

petroleum-basedautomotive fuel?

To encouragea shift to auto

fuel(s) not

based onpetroleum?

I

I JI

1

I I . . . To encourage

I Ireduction in

I I

non automotive

consumption

Ii of petroleum?”

II

J

I

rTo increase

1I

. . .automotive fuel supply I

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Figure 19.–Relevance Tree for Energy Issues (Continued)

A3. Issues

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

6. Individualpolicies

To what extent and how shouldthe Government establish and

implement policies to encouragea reduction in consumption of

petroleum-based automotive fuel?

Regulations Taxes and Governmentand standards R&D

(see next page)subsidies

more efficientvehicles

q

e

#

Tax less efficient Tax use ofvehicles; subsidize “surplus”

autos

nt q

“Gas guzzler” Weighttax tax

m

I Increase I

IIncreaseIncrease

tax onpetroleum

“Analyzed by Sydec.

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Figure 19.— Relevance Tree for Energy Issues (Concluded)

3. IssuesTo what extent and how shouldthe Government establish and

Implement policies to encouragea shift to alternative auto

fuel(s) not based on petroleum?

I

4. Strategies

9

Regulations

5. Policy setsEstablish performance

standards thatencourage use of

based on petroleum

Relax auto

for autos usingalternate fuels

x

for a synthetic

* Analyzed by Sydec

Source: Office of Technology Assessment

I I +Taxes and Government

I

1I

Set tax onpetroleum-based

encourage use ofalternate fuels

a

from petroleum orvehicles that usealternate fuels

1

tax credit

J

guaranteed

@ -

1

Accelerated FederalRD&D on alternate

fuels productionand on autos using

alternate fuelsL !

I

I , r

Methanol

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I

I.fi

L

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+

ii

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I I

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Figure 21 .–Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Continued)

3. Issues: to what extentand how should theGovernment establishand implement new.policies. . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

6. Individualpolicies

Fund moremedian

barriers

* I

Subsidies

Fund

B

. . . To improvehighway design

for safety?

Fund gradeseparation

of moreintersections

and highway/ railroad

crossings

wet-weatherskid

protection inhazardouslocations

Fund pedestriangrade

separations

in dangerouslocations

Fund impactabsorbingroadsidedevices

on subsidytargets

identifiedat the left

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1

1

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.—Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Continued)

3. Issues: to what extentand how should theGovernment establishand implement newpolicies . . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

ISpeed limits

I

D I

. . . To reduce thenumber and severity

of injuriesand the number of

fatalities?L

Regulationsand standards

6. Individual I *

policies1

Effectiveenforcement of

55 mph nationwidespeed limit

I1

Restricted speeds(and driving

privileges) foryoung drivers

.

. I

. . . To reducethe amount of

economic loss?

m


I IImproved vehicle

Driver protection crash resistanceand repairability

I

*

Require safetybelts to be worn

Require motorcyclehelmets and

while vehicle“lights-on” practice

is in motion

*Analyzed by Sydec

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3. Issues: to what extentand how should theGovernment establishand implement newpolicies . . .

4. Strategies

5. Policy sets

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives q89

Figure 21 .–Relevance Tree for Safety Issues (Concluded)

F,

. . . To improve the

rescue and treatment oftraffic accident victims?

Subsidy

Fund improvedemergencymedical aid

services

Information

SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment.

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1. Issue area

2. Policy-relatedproblems

3.

Mobility

I

Automobiles do notprovide efficient

transportation forall types of trips or

adequate mobility forall groups of people.

Issues: A 1q

To what extentand how should

. . . To improve

the Governmentaccessibility and

establish andmobility for

implement newdisadvantaged groups?

policies . . .1 [

I

The future extentand quality of the

highway system maynot be sufficientfor adequate ordesired mobility.

B

To discourage useof congestedhighways ?

+ .

c

, . . To expandthe present

highway systemand improveits operation?

I

Increased or evenpresent levels of

mobility may conflictwith achievement ofother social goals,such as freedom of

choice for low-densityurban development.

D 1

. . To reduceconflicts between

increased mobility andother social goals?

(See Figure 23,Issue 30)

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4

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates q 9 1

q

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3. Issues: To what extent andhow should the Government

esta&lish and implementnew policies . . .

Figure 22.-Relevance Tree for Mobility Issues (Continued)

B

To discourage use ofcongested highways?

4. Strategies

I

I


#

5. Policy sets

Subsidies

7I

Incentives

I

Encourage limitedaccess highways

for multiple-occupancy

vehicles

I

RD&D

.

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es: To what extent andw should the Government

blish and implementw policies . . .

Figure 22.–Relevance Tree for Mobility Issues (Concluded)

D

. . . To reduce conflictsbetween increasedmobility and other

social goals?

II

egies


cy sets

Require morextensive land use

planning andmpact assessment

forhighway projects

I *

and transitprojects, such ashigh densities attransit stations

alyzed by Sycfec.

RCE: Office of Technology Assessment.

ITaxes

and subsidies

I 1I *

I

I

o

q

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e area

cy-relatedblems

ues: To what extenthow should the

vernment establishimplement newcies . . .

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree- for Cost and Capital Issues

Cost and Capital

Automobile usemay become

too expensive forcertain groups

of people.

. . . To preventautomobile

ownership andoperation frombecoming too

costly?

The external orindirect costs of

automobileownership and useare not fully borne

by automobile users.

B I

. . . To influencethe external orindirect costs of

automobileownership and

use?

National goals forthe automobiletransportation

system may be moreexpensive than theautomobile industry

can afford.

. . . To influenceinvestment, pricing,and competition inthe private sector

to achieve nationalgoals for theautomobile

transportationsystem?

The present highwayfinancing system is

inadequate formeeting the need to

maintain the U.S.highway system.

. . . To influencehighway

financing?

3

(See also Figure 22Issues 36 &C)

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Figure 23.–Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital Issues (Continued)

3. Issues: To what extent andhow should the Governmentestablish and implementnew policies . . . m

I becoming too costly?J

I I, Strategies

Regulations andstandards

RD&D

ITaxes and subsidies

Ia 1

Policy setsI

I I I I I It5.

Regulatepricing of

automobiles

Regulate

m

Subsidizedevelopmentof low-cost

automobiles

!

durable andmaintainableautomobiles

Set standardson maintenance

durability,repairability y,

warrant yterms, etc. of for

Subsidizeautomobileownership

and use

Regulateautomobileinsurance

Regulatefuel

pricesI automobile

financing

I I new and used I

TIndividual

b

16.

Permit fulldeduction of

financingcharges for all;

deduction ofgasoline taxes;

etc.

I *1I *B

/

Encourage Statemotor vehicle

inspectionfor safety,

emissions, andfuel economy

Set Federalstandards fordurability andmaintainabilityof automobilecomponents

Fund industryR&D to designand build an

“inexpensive”automobile

Establishnational

“no fault”automobileinsurance

Encourage stateregulation ofautomobile

repair practices

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q

es: To what extent andshould the Governmentblish and implementpolicies. . .

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree for Cost and Capital issues (Continued)

B

. . . TO influence the ,

external or indirectcosts of automobileownership and use?

egies

cy sets

vidualcies

m

Regulations andstandards

, q

I I1

Requireevaluation ofall automobilesystem costsand benefits

1

Requirecomprehensive

impactassessments

Analyzed by Sydec.

Set standardsfor limiting

indirect costsof automobiles

Requiredevelopment andimplementation

of land use planswith highwayconstruction

Taxes andsubsidies

4 q

I

Subsidize R&Dand manufacture

of technologythat minimizesexternal costs

II

Federalsubsidiesof industry

R&D

a

Compensatefor indirect

costs

E

Providesubsidies togroups most

adverselyaffected by

automobile use

o

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Ch.. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives . 97

n I

I

1

(n

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q

Figure 23.-Relevance Tree for Cost and Capitai Issues (Concluded)

s: To what extent andshould the Government

blish and implementpolicies. . .

egies

D

. . . To influencehighway financing?

Taxes and subsidies

cy sets

vidualcies

I .

Finance highwaymaintenance

*

Authorizematching grants

to States for

1 {

Increasepresent taxes

Raisethe Federalgasoline tax

4

Require greaterparticipation by

States in financing;or increase Federal

participation

*

Change the formulafor Federal-Statecontributions to

highway financing

automobileownership

Reestablishexcise tax onautomobilespurchases

or registrations

o

3

ed by Sydec.

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Ch.. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives q99

POLICY SETS

System Design Concepts was directed to takea somewhat more comprehensive approach tothe definition of policy sets. Sydec assembledfour “packages” of policies that attempted toaddress several concerns and issues simultane-ously. Each policy had a major direction orthrust, such as energy conservation, but it also

included measures addressed to other issues,such as environmental protection, safety , ormobility. The four policy packages formulatedby Sydec were:

Increased Mobility

q Improved Accessibility

Each policy package was designed to be inter-nally consistent, in that the individual policieswere mutually supportive and compatible interms of their effects. A second important fea-ture of this approach was systematic variationof supportive policies among policy packages.This facilitated the analysis of effects and im-pacts. Both of these features—internal consist-ency and systematic variation—can be seen byexamining the components of the four policypackages and the Base Case, which are given in


Improved Environment

q

q table 43.

Table 43.—Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives

Policy Trend: Petroleum lmproved Increased ImprovedAccessibility ——.

Same as Base

Case.

Base Case Conservation Environment Mobilityalternatives

Highway

Total highwayexpenditures

Increase with infla-

tion (stable inconstant dollars).

Increase at 1/2 of

infIation (de-clines 400/o by2000 in constantdollars).

Same as BaseCase.

Same as Base

Case.

Increase 47°/0 over

Base Case.

Same as BaseCase. Emphasison communitycirrculation.

Highwayconstruct ion

Decreases from50% of total high-way expendituresto 25%. in 2000.

Same as BaseCase.

Increases to highexpenditure levelof late 1960’s(48% of total in2000).

Same constantdollar level asBase Case (50°/0of total in 2000).

Funded at $1.5 bil-Iion per year inreal dollars, em-phasis on generaltraffic movementefficiency.

Same as BaseCase.

Highwaymaintenance

Increases from50%. of total high-way expendituresto 75% in 2000.

Existing policies —no funding pro-gram.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Transportationsystemmanagement

Same as BaseCase.

Separate fundingprogram: $200miIIion/yearemphasizing highoccupancy vehi-cle movement.

Same as ImprovedEnvironment (em-phasis on pedes-trian and bicyclemovement andparatransitservices).

Same as BaseCase.

Same as Petroleum Conser-vation.

Same as Petro-leum Conser-vation. Emphasison services fortransit dependentgroups.

Same as Petro-leum Conser-vation. Emphasison services fortransit dependentgroups.

Mass transpor-tat ion: capitalImprovements

Increase currentdollar funding10°/0 per year to1985. Hold con-stant in real dol-lars to 2000.

Increase currentdollar funding10% per year to1985. Hold con-stant in real dol-lars to 2000.

Increase currentdollar funding15 ”/0 per year to1985. Hold con-stant i n real dol-lars to 2000.

Double funding initially. Increase1 5°/0 per year to1985. Increase10“/0 per year1985-2000 (allcurrent $).

Operations Same as PetroIeum Conser-vat ion,

Same as Petro-leum Conser-vation (emphasison community -oriented transitservices).

‘Auto performance EPCA 27.5 mpgthrough 2000.

33 mpg by 1990,40 Same as Petro-mpg by 2000, Mpg Ieum Conser-minimum on all vation.new autos.

Rigid enforcement Same as Baseof 55 mph limit. Case.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as Petro-leum Conser-vation.

Highway speed Moderate enforce-ment (presentaverage of 62mph).

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

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Table 43.—Sydec Base Case and Policy Alternatives—Cont.

Policy —

alternativesPetroleum Improved Increased

Conservation Environment MobilityTrend:

Base CaseImproved

Accessibility

Taxes Fuel taxes in-creased to main-tain 1975 rev-enue levels (12.3$

/gal. in 1985;14.OC/gal. in2000, constant1975 dollars).

Increased gas tax Increased gas tax Same as Improvedto hold constantfleet fuel costper VMT and toequalize gas andsynfuel prices.Gas guzzler taxon new cars.

Same as ImprovedEnvironment.to hold constant Environment.

fleet fuel costper VMT. Gasguzzler tax onnew cars.

Same as ImprovedEnvironment.

Air pollutionVehicleemissions

CO and HC sameas Base CaseTighten NOx,standard to 0.4gpm. Two-carstrategy(electric).

Mandatory pro-grams nation-wide.

Same as BaseCase.

Attain 1977 CleanAir Act Standardsfor CO, HC, andNO X (NO X wai-ver for dieselsat 1.5 gpm 1981-83.

No mandatory pro-gram (negligibleimprovements indeteriorationrates).

Negligible trafficreduction effect.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Inspection andmaintenance

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Emphasis on auto-free zones.

Transportationcontrols

Same as BaseCase.

Parking manage-ment. Vehicleuse restraints.

Same as BaseCase.

NoiseVehicleemissions

Emission stand-ards for trucksand buses.

Continue existingpolicies.

Same as BaseCase.

Emission stand-ards for autosand Iight trucks.

Continue existingpolicies and ex-pand funding toinclude sound-proofing.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Noise abate-ment

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Occupantrestraints

Airbags or t heirequivalent onnew vehicles asscheduled.

Existing stand-ards.

Mandatory seatbelt use only.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Same as BaseCase.

Vehicle crash-worthiness

Level 1. Level Il. Level I with empha-sis on frontendauto design and

pedestrian andcyclist safety.

Propulsion 15% diesel by1985; 40%. dieselby 2000.

25%. diesel by1985; 600/. dieselby 2000. Electriccar introductionby 2000.

Increase % ofdiesel fuel;accelerate tran-sition to synfuels.Potential for gasrationing.

Same as BaseCase, exceptdiesels phasedout after 1990.

Same as BaseCase.

Diesel penetra-tion same as im-proved Environ-ment.

Fuels 5.6% diesel by1985; 31 .30/0diesel by 2000.

Same as BaseCase, except ac-celerate penetra-tion of electriccars.

Same as BaseCase.

Accelerated tran-sitions to elec-tric cars.

SOURCE Sydec /EEA

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Consumption of energy, particularly petro-leum products, continues to increase in theUnited States, despite dwindling domestic sup-plies of crude oil. Oil imports now representalmost 50 percent of total consumption. A con-tinuation of this trend into the 1980’s could lead

to import levels of 60 percent or more, increas-ing the threat to national security and economicstability. Oil imports are a major factor in thepresent balance of payments deficit, which is ata record level.

Notwithstanding present efforts in Congressto enact major new energy policies aimed atboth conservation and increased energy sup-plies, it is likely that energy policy will be a con-tinuing concern and an issue for the Americanpeople and their elected officials for many yearsto come.

Energy supplies, and particularly petroleumproducts, are important to many areas of Amer-ican society. Attention is focused here on thetransportation sector because it accounts forabout 50 percent of petroleum consumption.The automobile system alone is responsible forbetween 25 and 30 percent of petroleum use inthe United States.

Policies to promote reduced energy consump-tion by the automobile system are analyzed inthe Petroleum Conservation Case, which con-tains the following major elements:

The minimum fuel efficiency level for theauto fleet would gradually increase to 23.5mpg in 1985, leading to an average fuel effi-ciency of 30 mpg in 1990 and 35 mpg in2000.

The gasoline tax would increase graduallyto hold the fuel cost per vehicle mile con-stant and to stimulate the introduction of synthetic fuels. (The existing Federal andState gasoline taxes—which average 11.65cents per gallon would be increased by 13cents in 1985 and 18 cents in 2000, in 1975constant dollars. This would raise the priceof gasoline to 91 cents per gallon in 1985and $1 .39 per gallon in 2000. )

Total expenditures for highways would de-crease, primarily in construction funds butwith a slight decrease in maintenance funds

q

Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternates . 101

as well. (Total highway expenditures fromall levels of government would decreasefrom $28.2 billion in 1975 to $22.4 billionin 1985 an d $16.8 billion in 2000. )

Federal funding for mass transit capital im-p ro v e me n ts ( f a c i l i t i e s a n d e q u ip me n t )would increase from $1.2 billion in 1975 to$2.4 billion in 1985, and with funding held

constant at that level until 2000. (Federalfunds for operating subsidies would also beincreased from a base of $300 million in1975 to $2 billion in 1985 and $4.8 billion in2000. )


The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 es-tablished the objective of a 90-percent reductionin emissions of specified pollutants from auto-mobiles as a primary measure to improve air

quality. These reductions have proven difficultto achieve. By both executive and congressionalaction, auto manufacturers have been grantedextensions in meeting emission standards. Thedelays in meeting standards, as well as questionsof whether the full 90-percent reduction is neces-sary for public health, continue to be matters of intense public debate.

While the objective has not yet been reached,major reductions have been made in the emis-sion levels of new automobiles being produced.Still, most projections indicate that air quality

standards will not be met in many places withinthe next few years and that standards for photo-chemical oxidants may not be met in some re-gions even by the year 2000.

A factor that complicates the question of automobile emission standards is that controldevices have been shown to deteriorate over thelife of the vehicle much more rapidly than ex-pected. It must also be recognized that manyautomobiles are driven more than the 50,000miles covered by the manufacturer’s warrantyfor emission control devices. Further, it hasbeen established that emission levels are higherin vehicles that are not adequately maintained.These considera t ions ra ise the quest ion o f whether programs to control vehicles in usemay be necessary.

The potential conflict between reduced emis-

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sions and petroleum conservation further com-plicates the problem and will be a significantfactor in propulsion technology for autos of thefuture. For example, a diesel engine is signifi-cantly more fuel efficient than the present spark-ignition engine. The diesel-powered auto canmeet established carbon monoxide and hydro-carbon standards but may not be able to meet

the nitrogen oxide standard. Electric cars haveno known harmful emissions, but the power-plants that produce electricity to charge the bat-teries may foul the air.

Potential policies to reduce automobile emis-sions are tested in the Improved EnvironmentCase:

The standards and implementation sched-ule for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbonemissions as approved by Congress in the1977 Clean Air Act Amendments would be

maintained. (The nitrogen oxide standardwould be reduced from 1.0 to 0.4 gram permile. )

Mandatory inspection and maintenancewould be imposed for all automobiles andlight trucks.

A program of parking management andauto-free zones would be instituted, pri-marily in center c it ies where there is agreater potential for providing alternativetransportation through mass transit.

Federal funding for mass transit capital im-provements and operatingbe at the same high levelsleum Conservation Case.

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S y s t e mwould be funded at a rate

subsidies wouldas in the Petro-

Managementof $200 million

per year to provide special expressway andarterial street lanes for transit, carpools,and vanpools. (Special parking privilegeswould be provided for high-occupancy

vehicles. )

T o t a l n a t i o n a l h igh way exp en ditu reswould be held constant at 1975 levels.(Capital expenditures would decrease asmaintenance requirements increased. )

Increased Mobility

Throughout the history of the United States,public policy has placed great value on mobil-ity. The transportation of people and goods hasbeen supported by public funds and by meas-ures to regulate the availability and price of transportation services. Sustaining or expand-

ing this transportation network and the per-sonal mobility that it affords will become an in-creasingly difficult task. The mobility that isnow enjoyed may be threatened by energy re-st rict ion s, e nv ir on m e nt al co nce rn s , a n d th eproblems of auto system safety.

Thus, there is an important set of issuesrela ting to the extent to which the FederalGovernment should continue to promote gen-eral mobility and the means by which this is tobe accomplished. A further issue is whether theFederal Government should attempt to changethe distribution of mobility by undertaking poli-cies to aid the transportation disadvantaged.

These issues are addressed by policies whichsubstantially increase the level of Federal fundsfor highway construction and maintenance andwhich create a higher level of funding for high-way and street improvements under a transpor-tation system management program. In order toprovide increased mobility for the transit de-pendent, increased Federal funding for masstransit a lso is provided, with a significantamount earmarked for special services for theelderly and handicapped.

The policies and programs in the IncreasedMobility Case are:

q Highway expenditures would increase froma total of $28 billion in 1975 to $37 billionin 1985 and to $41 billion in 2000. (T h i slevel of funding would provide $20 billion ayear for construction between 1985 and2000, a level about the same or slightlylower than that during the height of thehighway program in the late 1960’s. Main-tenance funds would increase from $14 bil-lion in 1975 to $17 billion in 1985 an d $21

billion in 2000. )

q A transportation system management pro-gram would be funded at a level of $1.5 bil-lion per year by 1985 and would continueat that level to 2000. (The program would

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Ch. 4—Overview of Policy Alternatives q103

emphasize removal of congestion points inthe highway and street network, safety im-provements, and improvements to increasethe average speed of traffic flow. )

q Federal funding for mass transit capital im-provements and add i t ions would be in -creased from the level of $1.2 billion in1975 to $2.4 billion in 1985 and thereafter.

(Federal assistance for transit operationwould be increased from $300 million in1975 to $1.6 billion in 1985 and $4.4 billionin 2000. )

• $500 million per year would be allotted to aspecial program to provide transportationfor the elderly and handicapped. (The Fed-eral share would be 80 percent, with Stateand local funds making up the remainder.The $500 million funding level would bereached in 1985 and continued to 2000. )

q Motor vehicle fuel taxes would increase

gradually to keep the average fuel costs pervehicle mile constant for the fleet.

Improved Accessibility

The auto system has contributed to the dis-persion of manufacturing and commercial andresidentia l development in patterns that arereferred to as urban sprawl. The automobile-highway system has encouraged residential landdevelopment in suburban and exurban areaswhere land is relatively inexpensive and where

d ev elo per s c an m a r k e t h o u s in g w i th m o r eamenities than could be obtained in centercities. Local officials, hard-pressed to providemore public services for growing communities,h a v e w i l l in g ly p ro v id e d th e in f ra s t ru c tu renecessary for this development in order to in-crease the tax base.

The highly automated processes associatedwith modern manufac tu r ing and the readyavailability of truck transportation have led in-dustry to seek the outlying areas for expansionand replacement of older multistory center city

buildings. Commercial enterprises, particularlyreta il stores and service organizations, havefollowed the people to the suburbs. In recentyears, there has been a substantial movement of commercial offices to the suburbs.

While the phenomenon of urban sprawl iscomplex, its effect on transportation and par-ticularly the automobile system is well-knownand wel l -documented . Pub l ic concern overenergy problems, environmental degradation,and other social and economic issues has inten-sified the debate over land use and the spatialdistribution of society’s activities.

These problems are addressedproved Accessibility Case, whichfollowing policies:

in the Im-includes the

q

q

q

q

q

q

Quantified and measurable criteria for landuse and transportation integration wouldbe established. Meeting the criteria wouldbe a condition for Federal assistance inplanning and development.

The Federal Government would participatedirectly in development of high-accessi-bility areas and integrated transportation

networks to serve them.

Highway funding would be held constantat $28.1 billion for the period 1985 to 2000,with a decreasing level of funding for con-struction and a reorientation to emphasizecommunity circulation. (Capital expendi-tures would decrease from $14.3 billion in1975 to $11.2 billion in 1985 and $7 billionin 2000. Highway maintenance would in-crease from $13.9 billion in 1975 to $17 bil-lion in 1985 and $21.1 billion in 2000. )

Federal funding for capital improvementsof transit would increase from $1.2 billionin 1975 to $1.7 billion in 1985 and after.(Federal assistance for transit operationwould be increased from $300 million in1975 to $2 billion in 1985 and to $4.8 bil-lion in 2000. Funding for operating assist-ance would emphasize community-orientedtransit services. )

Air quality standards for carbon monoxideand hydrocarbons would be held at thelevels approved in 1977, with the standard

for nitrogen oxides tightened to 0.4 gramper m ile.

Air quality control plans would emphasizeauto-free zones.

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Chapter 5

ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES,

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Chapter 5.- ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100Present Policy. . . * .,, * . . . . . ., ., * . . * .*.*...** 113

Energy Policy and Conservation Act . ........113Nationwide 55 Mph Speed Limit . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act . .......114The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act . ........114Advanced Automotive Technology and

Synthetic Fuels Development.. . . . ........114Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115Petroleum Conservation Policy Case. . .......115individual Policies Analyzed. . ..............116

Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Effects of Petroleum Conservation Policy Case121Effects of Conservation Policies . ...........122Effects of Transition to Alternate

Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129Impacts q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133

Table No. Page

48. Policy Options to Promote Alcohol Fuels. . . . 11949. Policy Options to Promote Electric

Automobiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12050. Automobile Energy Demand, Petroleum

Conservation Case . . . . . . . ................122

51. Projected Gasoline Savings Under theNational Energy Plan Standby Gasoline Tax. .125

52. Estimates of Synthetic Fuel Productionin 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132

53. Projections of Electric Vehicle Penetration .. 13254. Comparison of Fuel Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . 13355. Air Quality Impacts of Petroleum

Conservation Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13456. Factors Influencing Change in Automobile

Emissions for the Petroleum ConservationCase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

57. Electric Vehicle Emissions Compared toGasoline Vehicle Emissions in 2000........135

58.1985 New Car Sales Mix for the PetroleumEnvironment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......133 Conservation Case. . .

Safety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............136Mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........137Cost and Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...137

LIST OF

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

FIGURES

Figure No.LIST OF TABLES

Page

24. U.S. Petroleum Demand . .................109Table No. Page 25. U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand .. ......11044.

45.

46.

47.

Fuel-Economy Standards Assumed for - 26. Estimates of World Oil Production . . . . . . . . . . 111the Base Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 27. Cost of Operating a Suburban-BasedAssumptions and Conditions for Petroleum Automobile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....125Conservation Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 28. Miles Driven Annually, by Family incomePolicy Options for Automobile Fuel and Trip Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 29. Effects of Gasoline Rationing on AutomobilePolicy Options to Promote Synfuels . .......119 Fuel Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 130

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ENERGY ISSUES, POLICIES,

5

C ha pte r

AND FINDINGS

SUMMARY

The automobile transportation system nowuses over 5 million barrels per day (MMBD) of petroleum, or about 30 percent of total U.S.consumption. More efficient automobile designsand the shift to smaller cars are expected to leadto a decline in petroleum consumption by auto-mobiles under Base Case conditions. By 2000, it

is estimated that automobiles will use between4.2 and 4.8 MMBD, or about 20 percent of ex-pected U.S. petroleum consumption at thattime.

The United States now imports about 50 per-cent of its petroleum at a cost of over $42 billionper year. Petroleum imports account for amajor part of the current $27 billion annual bal-ance-of-payments deficit. In the Base Case, it isestimated that as much as 70 percent of U.S.petroleum supply in the year 2000 would be im-ported. If so, the cost of imports could rise toover $146 billion per year. (All dollar amountsspecified are in 1975 dollars unless noted other-wise. ) However, it is doubtful that this level of petroleum imports can be sustained. Severalstudies have predicted a shortfall by the late1980’s, and the threat of another oil embargo isalways present. In addition, most experts pre-dict severe depletion of worldwide petroleumsupplies within 50 years.

For these reasons, this study consideredchanges in present Federal policies and pro-grams, both to achieve greater conservation of petroleum by automobiles and to expedite the

development of a lternate automotive energysources.

Among the petroleum conservation policiesconsidered were:

More stringent fuel-economy standard s,

q Auto use disincentives and transit promo-tion,

Improved transportation system man age-ment,

Auto use controls,

Increased gasoline taxes, and

q Gasoline rationing.

Although the first four of these policies wouldhave beneficial effects, none is expected to pro-duce petroleum conservation of significant mag-nitude or to avoid the serious consequences of apetroleum shortfall or embargo. More stringentmeasures, such as greatly increased gasolinetaxes and gasoline rationing, were also con-

sidered. These measures could be used to con-serve fuels and to control the consequences of anembargo or longrun shortage of petroleum, butthey might entail serious economic penalties.

Conservation, however, is not a permanentsolution. Sooner or later, the automobile trans-portation system will have to convert to alter-nate energy sources. Between 1980 and 2000, itmay be possible to start using shale oil, coalliquids, alcohol, gasohol, or electrical energystorage on a large scale. As of now, there is noclear choice as to which would be the most tech-

nologically and economically feasible. All of thealternatives are more costly and require moretotal energy than petroleum. None is likely to beavailable before 1990 unless an active develop-ment and investment program is begun immedi-ate] y.

107

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BACKGROUND

Today, more than 80 percent of U.S. house-holds own one or more automobiles, and over90 percent of personal travel is by automobiles.Under Base Case assumptions, it is estimatedthat vehicle miles traveled will increase by 75percent to 1.8 trillion miles per year by 2000. Itis expected that new car sales will be about 16million per year then, compared to 11 millionnow. The total of automobiles in operation willgrow from the present 100 million vehicles to148 million,

The growth of automobile use in our societyhas been made possible, in part, by the avail-ability of low-cost petroleum, Government poli-c ies, which have kept fuel prices low, havest imula ted and he lped susta in th is g rowth .Automobiles now use over 5 MMBD of petro-leum, or about 30 percent of total U.S. con-

sumption. (See figure 24. ) Under Base Case con-ditions, the use of petroleum by automobiles in

2000 is projected to be 0.4 MMBD or about 8percent below the 1975 level. This reduction ismore substantial than it may appear because itcomes about despite a 75-percent increase inautomobile travel by the end of the century.

The future availabil i ty of automotive fuelmust be set in the context of total U.S. petro-leum supply and demand. At present, total de-mand exceeds domestic supply to the point thatabout half of the U.S. needs are met with im-ported oil. Despite current conservation policiesand emphasis on increasing domestic produc-tion, it is estimated that the need for foreign oilwill grow and could reach as high as 70 percentof demand by 2000. The Base Case assumes thatU.S. fuel demand would be 22.4 MMBD, of which as much as 15.4 MMBD would have to be

obtained abroad or provided by alternativeenergy sources yet to be developed.

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c

Z

20

15

10

5

U.S. Petroleum Demand

NOTE: Assumescontinuation of Electrical 0.627.5 mpg for newcars beyond 1985. Residential &

? commercial

Electrical3.1

Residential & \ 4 commercial

Electrical1.6 2.7 Industrial1

Residential & 6.1

CommercialIndustrial

3.5

5.6

Industrial Rail, air,

3.2water

Rail, air,3.9r water

Rail, air,water 2.9

2.1

Truck TruckTruck

1.9. 2.6

3.9

I

AutoAuto Auto

5.24.8 4.8

1976 1985 2000

The peaking of petroleum production—first sometime between 1985 and 2000.1 Other ex-

in the United States and later throughout theworld—has been predicted by several experts,among them M. King Hubbert. Hubbert projected that U.S. production could be expected topeak by the late 1970’s, which it has. He has alsoforecasted that world production will peak

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25

20

15

10

5

0

Figure 25.—U.S. Petroleum Supply and Demand(MMBD)

22A

20.1.

17.5

- 9 .710.1

Demand forpetroleum importsand alternatefuels (700/.)

Alaskan contribution

Lower 48

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE: Adapted from Sydec EEA, p III-92

perts disagree with Hubbert’s view and estimatethat the world production of petroleum fromproven reserves will be adequate to meet de-mand through 2000 and beyond.

The likelihood of a petroleum shortage overthe next two to three decades depends on a num-ber of factors or events, including:

q

q

q

q

q

Growth in world demand for oil,

Drilling and finding rates for oil,

Growth of production capacity in the oil-

producing nations,Production and pricing policy decisions of oil-producing nations, and

Rates of commercialization of alternativeliquid fuels.

It is beyond the scope of the present study toinvestigate in detail the factors affecting the bal-ance between petroleum supply and demand.Several independent analyses, of which theWorkshop on Alternative Energy Strategies(WAES) 2 is probably the most exhaustive, pointto the prospect that world demand for oil couldoutstrip the growth of new oil-producing capac-ity within the next decade.

The WAES study projects sufficient petro-leum supply to meet demand up to 1985. How-ever, after 1985 a gap between supply and un-

const ra ined demand wil l appear and widenrapidly. (See figure 26. ) By 2000, under even the

1985-2000 (New York: McGraw-Hill,1977).

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100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Flndings 111

Figure 26.— Estimates of World Oil Production

A. WOCAaCase C-1

No OPEC

OPEC productionlimit at 45 MMBD

OPEC production

limit at 33 MMBODemand

301- 1

20

Non-OPEC production10

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

B. WOCA Case D-8

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

No OPEC

OPEC production

C-1 Assumptions—high economicgrowth rate, rislng energy price,vigorous governmentresponse, coal as theprincipal replacementfuel, and gross ad-ditions to 011 re-

serves 20 billionbarrels per year

D-8 Assumptions—low economicgrowth rate, constant energy price,restrained government response,nuclear as the principal replacementfuel, and gross additions to oil reserves10 billlon barrels per year

1975 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 2025

‘WOCA—World Outside SOURCE Workshop on Alternate Energy Strategies (WAES)’Communist Area Energy Global Prospects 1985-2000, p 20

most optimistic scenarios, shortfalls of 25 to 35 served almost exclusively for transportation andpercent are projected. The WAES study con- pe trochemica l feedstocks . WAES a lso con-cluded that, to keep supply and demand in bal- cluded that, while there is a range of opportuni-ance through 2000 while maintaining economic ties for closing the petroleum supply and de-growth, there would have to be a massive shift mand gap, they require enormous planning ef-to coal and nuclear power, with petroleum re- forts, intensive engineering, and m ajor capital

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investments with leadtimes usually of 10 ormore years. In order to close the gap, develop-ment efforts would have to be started immedi-ately for an adequate supply of alternative fuelsto be assured by 1985-90.

Actua lly, the comple te exhaust ion o f o ilresources will not occur. As production by con-ventional methods declines and oil becomes

more scarce, the price will rise and more expen-sive recovery methods and novel technologieswill be employed to produce additional oil oralternatives. As this process continues, the priceof oil as an automotive fuel could become pro-hibitively high. If major improvements in oilrecovery techniques were made, they wouldprobably not raise the peak production level.They would be more likely to create a plateau inthe production curve or to make decline fromthe peak less abrupt.

Accompanying the prospect of a long-termdecline in petroleum reserves is the short-termthreat of a major disruption in supply, such as arepetition of the 1973-74 oil embargo, To dealwith temporary disruptions of petroleum sup-ply, the Carter Administration has adopted sev-eral policies. The first is to expand the strategicpetroleum reserve to 1 billion barrels which,combined with domestic production and emer-

gency conservat ion measures, would supp lyessential domestic needs for about 10 monthsduring an embargo.3 The process of building upthe level of petroleum storage was begun in 1977and will take some years to complete. The sec-ond policy is a standby rationing system which,as currently planned, involves “white market”(transferable) coupons.4

The control of the price and supply of importsis largely in the hands of the OPEC nations andother foreign oil producers. The price of im-ported crude oil has risen since the 1973 oil em-bargo. In the Base Case, it is assumed that theworld oil price will increase 3 percent per year,with the result that the price in constant dollarswill double by 2000.

Probably the most serious impact of thesemarket conditions, aside from the threat of another oil embargo, is the effect on the balanceof payments, the value of the dollar, and em-ployment. In 1977, the cost of imported oil was

$42.1 billion, making it a major contributor tothe $26.7 billion deficit in the balance of pay-ments. In 1985, with the price of petroleum at

‘Executive Office of the President, Energy Policy and Planning,Th[I Nutfo)lul Energ~ PIuI? Proposal, Apr. 29, 1977,

‘Feder-al Register 43, (June 28, 1978, Part II): 2813328168, ‘‘Con-tingency Gasoline Rationing Plan, ” Proposed Rules.

Photo Credlf U S Department of Energy

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Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings q113

$17 per barrel and imports at 10 MMBD, the an-nual cost would be $62 billion. If the price of petroleum were to double by 2000, reaching $26per barrel, the cost of importing oil at the rate of 15.4 MMBD to meet domestic requirementswould be $146 billion annually.

The problem of adequate petroleum supplywill begin when production peaks and will grow

worse with each succeeding year. For perspec-tive, it should be noted that a shortfall of only10 percent would limit consumption more se-verely than all of the conservation and curtail-ment policies normally considered. Thus, thereis a clear need to explore a range of policy op-tions to achieve greater conservation of petro-leum as an automobile fuel and to hasten the de-velopment of alternate energy sources.

PRESENT POLICY

Before turning to an examination of alter-natives, it is necessary to look briefly at the major policies now being pursued to see what ef-fects they can be expected to have on petroleumconsumption by automobiles.

Energy Policy and Conservation Act

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act(EPCA), enacted in December 1975, seeks topromote energy conservation in a variety of ways, many directly aimed at the automobiletransportation system. Prominent among theseare the new car fuel-economy standards man-dated for model years 1978 through 1985 .Standards for light trucks will also go into effectbeginning with the 1979 model year. (See table44. )

Table 44.— Fuel-Economy StandardsAssumed for the Base Case’

Sales-weightedModel year new car fleet average

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 8b

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19b

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0b

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22c

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24c

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26c

1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27c

1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5b

1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5/30.0d

2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.5/35.0d

aValues shown are those to be achieved on the EPA prototype vehicledynamometer tests Fuel consumption estimates prepared for this studyassume that performance by vehicles in use IS10 to 20 percent less

bMandated by EPCA

EPCA provides the Secretary of Transporta-tion with authority to amend the average fueleconomy standard for model year 1985, or anysubsequent model year. However, any suchamendment may not lower the standard beyond26 mpg without approval of both Houses of Congress. EPCA does not make provision fors tandards beyond 1985. One policy issue iswhether the 1985 standards should be main-tained or increased further between 1985 and2000.

In addition to mandating automobile fuel-economy characteristics, EPCA also providesfor programs to foster energy conservation inautomobile use. Among these are:

q

q

q

Promotion of carpools, vanpools, and pub-lic transportation,

Encouragement to States and municipalities

to adopt right-turn-on-red laws, andTransporta tion system management andtransportation controls.

Nationwide 55 Mph Speed Limit

The 55 mph speed limit for highway trafficwas established in 1974 as a means to savegasoline during the oil embargo. The law wasespecially effective during its first year or two,when compliance was much higher than it is to-

day. Reduced speed not only saved petroleumbut also provided an important extra benefit inlessening highway fatalities and injuries. Morerecently, the law has been less effective becauseof declining compliance and unwillingness bysome States to enforce the law rigorously. A

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survey by the Department of Transportationshowed that, during the first 6 months of 1977,from 30 to 77 percent of the vehicles on high-ways in various States exceeded the 55 mphlimit . 5 Congress empowered the Secretary of Transportation to cut off highway constructionfunds to States failing to enforce the 55 mphspeed limit, but this sanction has never been in-voked. Lack of enforcement remains the major

deficiency of this law.

Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act

The Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act,passed in November 1973, provides the Admin-istration with authority to allocate petroleumand to set price controls during an emergency.The responses by the Federal Government to the1973-74 embargo consisted primarily of themeasures authorized under this Act.

where su ch subsenefic ia l .

itu tion w o u l d b e

Responsibility for administering the Act wasplaced on the Energy Research and Develop-ment Administra tion (ERDA), now incorpo-rated into the Department of Energy (DOE).Funding of $37.5 million has been requested by

DOE for FY 1979 to handle these responsibil-ities. Work already completed includes initialstudies and analysis of program requirements,review of the state of the art, publication of thefirst set of performance standards, and plans fora loan guarantee program. In addition, R&Dhas begun on batteries, components, and ve-hicles to assist industry in improving productperformance, utility, and reliability. A demon-stration program has been formulated to placeat least 200 electric-vehicles on the road by 1979and between 7,500 and 10,000 by 1984.6

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research,Development, a n d De mo n s t ra t io n Ac t wa spassed in September 1976 and amended in 1978.Its aim is to foster the use of electric- andhybrid-vehicles as an alternative to petroleum-fueled automobiles. The intent of this law wa s

to :

q

q

q

q

Encourage and support research on, anddeve lopment o f , e lec t r ic - and hybr id -

vehicle technologies,Demonstrate the economic and technologi-cal practicability of electric and hybridvehicles for personal and commercial use inurban areas and for personal and agricul-tural use in rural areas,

Facilitate, and remove barriers to, the useof electric- and hybrid-vehicles instead of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, and

Promote the substitution of electric- andhybrid-vehicles for many gasoline- and

diesel-powered vehicles now used in rou-tine s hor th au l, lo w -l oa d a p p lica tio n s,

Advanced Automotive Technology andSynthetic Fuels Development

The Department of Energy inherited from theEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA) a pro-gram to promote development of new technol-ogies for automobile engines, transmissions,and drivetrain components. DOE has enteredinto a cost-sharing contract with an industr y

consortium to develop the Stirling engine overan 8-year period. DOE also expects to placec o n t r a c t s f o r d e v e l o p m e n t o f gas turbine

engines—a continuation of the R&D work per-fo rme d b y th e Ch ry s le r Co rp o ra t io n w i thFederal support since the 1950’s.

The Department of Energy also inheritedfrom EPA a program for the development of synthetic fuels. The program originally concen-trated on state-of-the-art and feasibility studies.At the present time, small pilot plants are beingbuilt to test alternative processes for convertingoil shale and coal to synthetic fuel. Emphasis onthis program has grown considerably within the

past year.

‘Electrir and HyhriJ Vehicle Act, Statl/tes at Large 90, 1260( 1976), U S CoL?r vo], 15, sec. 2501-2514, VO]. 42, sec. 2451 and2473, as a m e n d e d by th e ERDA Aut/ ]or]zatio)l Act of 1978, 1’.1..95-238, 95th Cong., 2d sess., Feb. 25, 1978, S, 1340, Title VI.

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Ch.. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings q115

ISSUES

The automobile transportation system is con-fronted with a serious challenge. Abundant low-cost petroleum is no longer assured. Growingpetroleum imports, of which automobile fueldemand is a large part, have contributed to a

serious negative balance of payments. Efforts toconserve petroleum have so far been slow, dif-ficult, and limited in results. All alternatives topetroleum are more costly and require major in-vestments with high risks. All will take manyyears to bring to full development and commer-cialization. Thus, something clearly needs to bedone about the way in which automobiles useenergy and about assuring a continuing supplyo f e n e rg y fo r p e r so n a l t r a n sp o r ta t io n . T h epolicy questions facing the Government, the in-dustry, and the public can be summed up in twobasic issues:

Should th e Government ad opt policies toeffect a transition from petroleum to alter-nate energy sources for automobiles? Whenshould the transition be made? What arethe feasible paths?

q Should specific limits or allocations be es-tablished for petroleum consumption in theautomotive transportation sector? Or, al-

ternatively, should the Government let themarket price balance supply and demand?

Concerning the first issue, the Federal Go v-ernment may have to become involved becausethe capital requirements are so high and the

risks so great that private industry would beunlikely to undertake the needed research anddevelopment without strong encouragementand perhaps Federal Government participation.Federal Government involvement might also benecessary to ensure a smooth and expeditioustransition andwith resultingeconomy.

The second

to prevent disruption of supplyhardships on citizens and the

issue, limiting petroleum con-sumption, must be confronted while the longerterm transition is taking place. If a petroleum

shortfall occurs, there will be a need to considerfurther measures to reduce fuel consumption inall sectors, including automobile transporta-tion. The issue addressed in this report is how toachieve petroleum conservation by the automo-bile transportation system through policies thatdo not have severe negative impacts on con-sumers, the auto industry, or the economy ingeneral.

POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Policies to deal with the issues outlined abovewere analyzed in two ways. First, a policy casewas constructed to deal with the combined im-pacts and effects of several policies workingtogether to conserve petroleum. Second, ananalysis was carried out of the impacts and ef-fects of individual policies to conserve petro-leum or to encourage the transition to alter-native sources.

Petroleum Conservation Policy Case

The rationale of the Petroleum ConservationPolicy Case was to foster substantial reductionin fuel consumption by automobiles withoutmajor adverse impacts in the areas of mobility,

environment, safety, and cost. Specific policieswithin this set include:

q EPCA fuel-economy standards for new carsas now mandated for 1978-85, with escala-tion of the standards to 33 mpg in 1990 and40 mpg in 2000,

Ž Ne w c a r fu e l -e c o n o my s ta n d a rd s th a testablish a minimum of 16 mpg for all carsin the 1980 model year and an increase of 1

mpg each year thereafter until reaching 21mpg in 1985,

q An exc ise tax on fue l - ine ff ic ien t au to -mobiles (“gas guzzlers” ) that increases froma maximum of $553 in 1979 to $3,856 in1985, and

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q An increased gasoline tax to keep averagefleet fuel cost per mile constant after 1979–

the increase amounting to 7 cents per gallonin 1980 and 18 cents per gallon by 2000.

The gasoline tax would be adequate until1985 to serve also as an incentive to alternativefuel production. Depending on fuel prices andauto fuel efficiencies after 1985, additional taxes

might be required to maintain the price advan-tage of alternate fuels. The assumptions for thisset of policies are summarized and comparedwith the Base Case in table 45.

As a supplement to the Petroleum Conserva-tion Policy Case, the analysis was extended toconsider the consequences of a staged rationingprogram designed to bring about forced reduc-tions in petroleum consumption for the longterm.

In addition to Federal policies that have adirect impact on the cost of driving and on fuel

economy, there are other measures that coulddivert or reduce reliance on conventional auto-mobiles and conventional auto fuels. For exam-ple, a gasoline tax or rationing program might

be accompanied by Federal subsidies for electriccar development and purchase. Stringent fuel-economy standards for new cars could be ac-companied by increasing Federal R&D for autotechnologies. The negative effects of a gasolinetax on mobility could be somewhat alleviatedby subsidies for mass transit and vanpooling.These supporting policies to improve mobility,while clearly important to the success of energy

conservation efforts, are not examined in detailin this chapter, but they are considered later inchapter 8.

Individual Policies Analyzed

The range of policy alternatives for effectingautomobile petroleum conservation and a tran-sition to alternate sources is extensive. Time andresources did not permit analysis of all the alter-natives. The policies selected for study here arethose that focus on actions related to the auto-

mobile. These policies address what the auto-mobile sector could do to lower demand forpetroleum while continuing to meet basic trans-port needs. For example, policies that would

Table 45.—Assumptions and Conditions for Petroleum Conservation Case

Assumptions Base Case Petroleum Conservation

HighwayTotal highway

expendituresMass transportation

Capital improvements

Operations

Auto feul economy

Highway speed

Safety Occupant restraints

Technology Propulsion

Fuels

Increases with inflation (stable inconstant dollars).

Increase current dollar funding 10%per year to 1985. Hold con-stant in real dollars to 2000.

Same as above.

EPCA 27.5 mpg beyond 1985.

Moderate enforcement (present averageof 62 mph).

Airbags or equivalent on new vehiclesas scheduled.

10% of new cars diesel by 1985;25°/0 by 2000. Negligible electric

vehicles in use.

4.4°/0 diesel by 1985; 17.9°/0 dieselby 2000.

Increases at 1/2 inflation rate (declines40% by 2000 in constant dollars).

Increase current dollar funding 15%per year to 1985. Hold con-stant in real dollars to 2000.

Double funding initially. Increase15% per year to 1985. Increase10°/0 per year 1985-2000 (allcurrent dollars)

33 mpg by 1990; 40 mpg by 2000.Gas-guzzler tax and ban.

Rigid enforcement of 55 mph limit.

Mandatory seat belt use only.

25% of new cars diesel by 1985; 60% by2000.11 million electric vehicles

in use by 2000. Neglible use ofadvanced engine technologies.Increase % of diesel fuel; acceleratetransition to synfuels. Potential for gasrationing.

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p 1.7

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give priority to the auto in the allocation of petroleum were not considered. In assessing thet ransit ion po licies , no a t tempt w as made todetermine how other sectors might make use of the new energy forms.

Petroleum Conservation Policies

Basically, these policies are designed to in-

fluence behavior in two ways:1. To promote the design and sale of fuel- ef-

ficient vehicles, and

2. To promote more energy-conscious use of a u to mo b i le s or to provide a lternativemodes of transportation.

In table 46, several policies have been listed ineach of these categories. Four policies from thislist are analyzed in this chapter:

q Tighter fuel-economy standards,

Higher gasoline prices,

Ž Free-market pricing, and

q Gasoline rationing.

Table 46.—Policy Options forAutomobile Fuel Conservation

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Vehicle fuel-efficiency policies

Tighter fuel economy standards

Gas-guzzler banGas-guzzler taxEfficiency incentive taxNational inspection and maintenance programScrappage of fuel-inefficient carsSubsidized industry research and development

Automobile use policies

Improvements to traffic flowStricter enforcement of 55 mph speed limitDeregulation of gasoline and diesel fuel pricesHigh gasoline taxesGasoline rationingCarpooling and vanpooling promotion andpriorities

Public transit expansionSubsidized telecommunications networksPublic education and appealsAuto use controlsAnnual VMT-based tax

Transition to Alternate Sources

Policies to stimulate transition to alternateenergy sources for automobiles were dividedinto three groups according to the type of energy source promoted: synthetic liquid fuel,alcohol fuels, and electric- or hybrid-vehicles.

Synthetic fuels from coal or shale oil wouldrequire the least change in the automobile and

energy systems. Although the technologies forproducing liquids from coal and shale oil arequ ite d iffe ren t, the end p roduc t from e i the rwould be a synthetic crude oil. Such a productcould then be refined into gasoline, diesel fuel,or any other suitable liquid through conven-tional petroleum-refining processes.

Neither coal-based nor shale-based synfuelstechnology now exists on a commercial scale inthe United States. Commercial technologiesnow employed in other nations (notably SouthAfrica) produce fuel that is substantially more

expensive than gasoline derived from petro-leum. Uncertainties about the eventual cost of production, about the technology to mitigateenvironmental damage, and especially aboutthe future price of petroleum-based gasoline arepresently the main barriers to development of these a lternatives. Polic ies to encourage thedevelopment of synfuels must assure developersthat the fuels they eventually produce will bemarketable and that they will receive a reason-able rate-of-return on investment. The policiesthat could be adopted to stimulate developmentof production facilities and marketing of syn-

fuels are listed in table 47.A second major alternative to gasoline is a

fuel composed of alcohol or a blend of gasolineand alcohol. Several alcohols are under con-sideration, but the most l ikely candidate ismethanol (methyl alcohol). Several experimentswith methanol as an automobile fuel are nowunderway in the United States and in othercountries. Methanol can be derived from coal,from na tura l gas , f rom organ ic wastes, andfrom biomass.

Methanol may be used as a substitute auto-

mobile fuel in two different ways: as a mixtureor blend, i.e., the “gasohol” alternative, and asa “true” replacement for gasoline. Some propo-nents suggest that the former strategy could beemployed as a precursor to the latter.

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Oil Shale Retorting Photo Credit U S Departrnent of Energy

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Table 47.—Policy Options to Promote Synfuels

StrategyRegulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Taxes and subsidies. . . . . . . . . . .

Government RD&D . . . . . . . . . . .

Government commercialization .

SOURCE Adapted from SRl p I 20

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Policy measures —.———Relax environmental standards for coal mining, shale oil mining, and

——

synfuels processing.Regulate synfuels industry as a public utility, guaranteeing a reasonablerate of return.Deregulate prices of oil and remove gasoline price ceilings.

Increase investment tax credits for synfuels producers.Guarantee Government price support for syncrude.Federal Government purchase and resell sync rude.Loan guarantees.Direct loans.

Accelerate oil shale and coal liquefaction RD&D with main emphasis oncommercialization.Support research to reduce potential environmental impacts of synfuelprocessing.Establish Government owned and operated synfuels industry (i.e.,similar to TVA).

Because methanol cannot be easily mixed two fuels would be mixed at the pump.with gasoline in the present fuel distribution

Table 48 shows a range of policy options tosystem, policies aimed at promoting a methanol

encourage the production and use of alcohol-distribution and storage system need to be con- based automobie fuels.sidered as well. Methanol would have to betransported and stored in separate facilities. If A third alternative, which may be pursued ingasohol blends were the chosen alternative, the conjunction with either or both of the previous

Table 48.—Policy Options to Promote Alcohol Fuels

Strategy Policy measuresRegulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .q

q

q

Taxes and subsidies. . . . . . . . . . . q

q

q

q

q

Government RD&D . . . . . . . . . . . . q

q

Set different emissions and performance standards for automobilesusing alcohol or alcohol-gasoline blends.Require that an increasing proportion of new automobiles be designedto use a alcohol-gasoline blends.Require automobile fuel distributors and retailers to handle alcohol.

Subsidize automobile industry development of alcohol-gasoline or purealcohol engines.Subsidize purchase of autos using gasoline-alcohol fuels.Provide tax credit for retrofitting used cars to make use of blended fuels.Subsidize development of alcohol fuel conversion, distribution, andstorage systems.

Purchase and operate a Government-owned fleet of alcohol or alcohol-gasoline fueled automobiles.

Accelerate RD&D on integrating alcohol into existing fuel distributionsystems.Accelerate RD&D on long-term alternative automobiIe engines.

SOURCE Adapted from SRI p I 22

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courses of action, is to encourage a shift to elec-trically powered automobiles. Assuming thatelectric cars are a viable and economic alter-native to conventionally powered automobiles,electricity itself is readily available from anynumber of energy-conversion processes.

Electric automobiles (and hybrid-vehicles)have the general advantages of making very ef-

ficient use of electricity and, in comparison withconventional autos, they may be more environ-mentally benign. At present, however, neitherbattery- nor electric-car technology is sufficient-ly advanced to produce an electric car that is, onthe whole , compet i t ive wi th conven t iona lautomobiles in terms of range, performance,and cost.

The major stakeholders involved in a shift toelectric automobiles include automobile users,the automobile manufacturers and after-mar-kets, and, to some extent, the fuel distributionsystem. Policies to promote electrics must focuson the activities and interactions among thesethree major groups.

Table 49 summarizes policy options for en-couraging the development and use of electric orhybrid automobiles. (In general, hybrids areconsidered a less well-developed technologythan pure electrics. However, most of the samepolicy options are applicable. ) As a second wayto promote electric-vehicles, table 49 also listscomplementary policies to discourage the use of conventional automobiles.

Table 49.— Policy Options to Promote Electric Automobiles

Policy measures

Policies encouraging Policies discouraging use ofStrategy electric automobiIes conventionally powered automobiles

Regulation q

q

q

q

Taxes and subsidies q

q

q

q

Government RD&D q

Require that a proportion of new autosales be electric automobiIes by a cer-tain year.Change utility pricing to encourageuse of off peak times to recharge elec-tric autos.Relax certain standards for electricautomobiles (e. g., safety).Give electric vehicles credit for beinglow or non petroleum users in com-puting corporate average fueleconomics.

Subsidize automobile industrydevelopment of electric automobilesand batteries.Subsidize parts or all oft he costof electric automobiIes (e. g.,insurance, fuel, maintenance, etc.).Purchase and operate a Governmentelectric-automobile fIeet.Subsidize purchases of electrics forcommercial automobile fleets.

Accelerate Government RD&D onbatteries, electric automobiles,and hybrid automobiles.

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Increase restrictions on air emissionsof conventionally powered automo-biles, especially in urban areas.Establish restricted zones forconventional automobiles.Reduce performance on conventionalcarsAllocate petroleum.

Increase taxes on conventional autos.Increase cost of access to highwaysand parking for conventionalautomobiles.Increase taxes on conventionalautomobile fuels.

SOURCE Adapted from SRI, p 1.23

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The analysis of policy alternatives concen-trated on two types of outcomes—effects andimpacts. Effects were defined as the primary andintended results of pursuing a policy action, i.e.,outcomes directly related to the objectives of thepolicy. Impacts were defined as secondary orunintended results, falling in areas not directlyrelated to policy objectives.

As an illustration of the distinction betweeneffects and impacts, consider the energy policiesdiscussed in this chapter. The objective of thesepolicies is either to conserve petroleum or topromote the use of alternate energy sources. Theeffec ts o f these po l icies , the re fore , a re theamount of petroleum saved or the degree towhich other forms of energy are substituted.The impacts of these policies are the otherresults that follow in areas such as environmen-

tal pollution, safety, mobility, cost, and so on.Effects are, by definition, positive outcomessince every policy can be presumed to attain itsobjective to a greater or lesser degree. Impactsmay be positive or negative. For example, the 55mph speed limit was implemented to conservepetroleum, but also is credited with significantreductions in highway fatalities (a positive im-pact). A negative impact of this policy was theincrease in trip times.

The overall worth of a policy must, be judgedby weighing advantages against disadvantages

and striking some suitable balance. During theassessment, this process was carried only partway to completion. An attempt was made toidentify effects and impacts and, where possi-ble , to express them in quantita tive terms.Where quantitative measurement was not possi-ble, estimates were made of the direction andgeneral magnitude of possible outcomes. How-ever, no attempt was made to balance effectsagainst impacts in an overall evaluation of policies or to analyze the more subtle interac-tions between effects and impacts.

The effects of the energy policies examinedare presented under three headings:


EFFECTS

1.

2.

Effects of Petroleum Conservation PolicyCase,

Effects of Conservation Policies, and

3. Effects of Transition to Alternate Sources.

In certain instances, results of the analysis of thePetroleum Conservation Policy Case have beenused as supporting material in the discussions of the effects and impacts of individual policies.

T h e f in d in g s p re se n te d in th i s se c t io n a resynopses and highlights of more detailed in-formation in the contractors’ reports. Impactsare considered separately in the next section.

Effects of Petroleum ConservationPolicy Case

The reduced automobile fuel consumptionestimates for this policy case derive from fourbasic policies:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Higher fuel-economy standards (4o m p gby 2000),

Fuel-economy minimum (ban on autoswith fuel efficiency under 21 mpg after1985),

Excise tax on fuel-inefficient autos (gas-guzzler tax of up to $3,856 after 1985),and

Increased gasoline tax (an additional 18

cents per gallon over the Base Case in2000).

The effects of these policies would be substan-tial. As shown in table 50, auto fuel consump-tion in 1985 would be reduced to 4.6 MMBD,about 5 percent less than in the Base Case. By2000, automobile fuel consumption would bedown to 3.4 MMBD or 29 percent below theBase Case. These savings would be achievedwithout a major reduction in auto VMT—only3 percent. ’ The fuel-economy of the average car

in 2000 wou ld be nearly 21/ 2 times tha t of its1975 c o u n t e r p a r t .

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Table 50.—Automobile Energy Demand, Petroleum Conservation Case

Petroleum RationingActual Base Casea Conservation Case Case

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000 2000

Automobile VMT (trillion). .Diesel penetration (percent

of new car sales) . . . . . . .

1.03

(b)

1.43

10

1.80

25

1.42

25

1.74

60

1.53

{d)

New car fuel economy(mpg)EPA standard@) . . . . . . . .Attained— EPA certi-

fication value. . . . . . . .Attained—actual driving

None

15.614.0

27.5

28.523.2

27.5

29.425.0

27.5

31.525.6

40.0

40.034.0

(d)

(d)

(d)

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)Attained— EPA certi-

fication value. . . . . . . .Attained—actual driving

15.113.6

24.019.4

28.524.6

24.820.3

37.632.1e)

(d)

(d)

Annual auto fuelconsumptionBillions of gallons. ... , .MMBD equivalent . . . . . .Percent of domestic

consumption . . . . . . . .

76.05.0

30.6

73.94.8

23.9

73.34.8

21.4

70.14.6

23.1

51.73.4

16.2

45.83.0

14.6

Effects of Conservation Policies

This analysis focuses on four individualpolicies, each designed to promote greater fuelconservation by the automobile system. Thefour considered are:

Also shown in table 50 are the results of theanalysis of long-term, mandatory ra tioning.Th i s p ol icy , wh ich wo u ld be imp le men te dgradually between 1985 and 2000 to control theallocation of auto fuels between diesel and gaso-line autos, is discussed later. Compared to thePetroleum Conservation Policy Case, rationing

could reduce auto fuel consumption to 3 .0MMBD in 2000, or 6 gallons per week per car.The table indicates that auto fuel consumptionin 2000 might be only 14.6 percent of totaldomestic consumption; however, if the situation

Higher fuel-economy standards, which

represent a strengthening and extension of the present EPCA policy,

Increased gasoline taxes to raise the priceof gasoline and thereby discourage unnec-essary driving,

Free-market pricing and deregulation tol e t p e t r o l e u m p r i c e s r i s e a s s u p p l ydecreases, thereby providing additionaldisincentives to automobile use, and

Rationing, either as a short-term response

1.

2.

3.

4.

were severe enough to warrant rationing, othersectors would likely be forced to reduce theirconsumption more than anticipated here.

Additional effects of this policy case relate tothe transition to alternate energy sources. It isbelieved that in 2000, alternate fuel utilizationmight reach 3.75 MMBD (as opposed to the 2.75

MMBD envisioned for the Base Case). Up to11.5 million electric vehicles might be on theroad; they would account for approximately 5percent of the VMT. These and other effects areexplored further under the separate policydiscussions which follow.

to an embargo or as a long-term measure

to impose a ceiling on consumption of motor fuel.

Higher Fuel-Economy Standards

Imposition of higher fuel-economy standardsfor automobiles is an important policy option to

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counterbalance the projected growth in auto-mobile travel between now and 2000. The auto-mobile fleet traveled about 1.07 trillion vehiclemiles in 1976. Base Case projections indicatethat by 1985 auto travel will increase to 1.43trillion vehicle miles and by 2000 to 1.80 trillionvehicle miles. This growth will have importantimplications on the magnitude of future autofuel consumption and on the merits of further

increases beyond the 1985 EPCA fuel-economystandards.

In 1976, automobiles consumed 5.2 M M B Dof fuel. In 1985, it is expected that consumptionwill have fallen slightly to 4.8 MMBD, Assum-ing that the current EPCA new car standard of 27.5 mpg for 1985 remains in effect until 2000,a u to fu e l c o n su mp t io n wo u ld a l so b e 4 .8MMBD. However, if the standard were raisedgradually to 35 mpg (as in Base Case B) or to 40mpg (as in the Petroleum Conservation Case),auto fuel consumption could drop to 4.2 and 3.4

MMBD, respectively, assuming the appropriatesupporting policies are also instituted, Each of the higher mpg levels assumes a higher penetra-tion of diesels into the market. The PetroleumConservation Case assumes higher fuel and ex-cise taxes and an mpg floor; it also assumes that5 percent of the VMT will be electric cars.

However, the magnitude of the additionalsavings to be achieved by further raising theEPCA standard tend to have a decreasing valueas automobile fuel efficiency improves. For ex-ample, for a motorist traveling 10,000 miles an-nually, shifting from a 12-mpg car to a 27.5-mpg car will save 470 gallons per year. A shiftfrom a 27.5-mpg car to a 40-mpg car saves only114 gallons. Moreover, the incremental cost of achieving these fuel-economy improvementsmay increase. However, when consideration isgiven to the projected growth in fleet autotravel, higher fuel-economy standards can stillproduce meaningful savings. It is well recog-nized that there are practical limitations on con-tinuing fuel-economy improvements. It is notknown what the maximum auto fuel efficiencycould be, but improvements up to 35 mpg and

eventually up to 40 mpg by the year 2000, arethought possible. g Several cars listed in EPA’s1978 Gas Mileage Guide attain over 35 mpg,

and at least three makes could meet a 40-mpgstandard. 9

Under current EPCA standards, the total fuelconsumed by automobiles is expected to startdeclining slowly in a few years, as the fueleconomy of the fleet as a whole begins to offsetthe growth in VMT. Just how soon the peak willbe reached and how much motor vehicle fuel

consumption will then decline depends, in part,on the fuel-economy standards imposed on lighttrucks. Light-truck sales, which were 15 percentof auto sales in 1965, rose to 31 percent of autosales in 1976. The concern is that many house-holds may be substituting lightweight trucks forautomobiles. To the extent that this is the case,fuel-economy gains achieved by shift ing tomore energy-efficient autos may be offset by thesales of lightweight trucks. Standards for lighttrucks go into effect for the 1979 model year andhave been established for the 1980 an d 1981

model years. 10

Thus, under current EPCA standards, auto-mobile fuel consumption could remain withinthe range of 4 to 5 MMBD through the year2000. To bring consumption down further,more stringent fuel-economy standards wouldbe necessary. These higher standards wouldhave the effect of accelerating the present trendtoward production and purchase of the smallercompact and subcompact automobiles, some of which can already achieve 40 mpg. However ,there are factors that could limit this trend. Oneis the will ingness of automobile owners toswitch to smaller cars, which may have lesscomfort, performance, and utility than vehiclesnow in use. Another potential limiting factor isthe ability of the automobile industry to re-spond. The capital requirements to accomplishthe conversion to smaller, more fuel-efficientcars are large and may pose a threat to the con-tinued viability of one or two domestic manu-facturers.

An additional fuel-economy policy would beto ban the sale of any car that did not meet aspecified minimum mpg. This would save more

arcis, ‘ Final Rules

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fuel than the current EPCA standards alone andwould force an earlier shift away from largefuel-inefficient cars. P ro p o n e n t s o f th e b a nargue that the expected increase in gasoline pricewould not by itself induce new car purchasers tobuy more efficient vehicles and that strongermeasures are needed. They also contend that theinconvenience of reduced size would be relative-ly slight. Most vehicles on the road today are

oversized, given the low average occupancy. Inaddition, most trunk and cargo space is normal-ly empty.

Opponents of the mpg floor fear that thismeasure would abolish the “family-sized” carneeded by large families. They argue that thenumber of cars eliminated is relatively small(depending on where the floor is set), that thefuel savings would not be appreciable, and thatpersons who today own large, inefficient carswould be encouraged to keep them even longer.

Gasoline Taxes

Since the fuel economy of new cars is alreadymandated by EPCA, an increase in motor fueltaxes would serve mainly to reduce consumerdemand for fuel. Consumers would react bybuying more efficient new cars, by scrappingolder cars sooner, by driving less, or by car-pooling or using transit where available. The ef-fectiveness of additional gasoline taxes dependson how large they are and when they are imple-mented. The current taxes on gasoline range

from 9 to 14 cents, depending upon the State.They are intended as revenue-raisers, ratherthan gas-savers.

Several factors could limit the effectiveness of a gasoline tax increase. First, even a tax increaseas large as the 50 cents originally proposed inth e Na t io n a l E n e rg y P la n , i f imp le me n te dgradually over a 10-year period, would produceonly moderate annual increases in real gasolineprices. Small incremental price increases are notseen as serious deterrents to gasoline consump-tion, particularly in a period in which incomes

may be rising as fast as the price of gasoline.Second, doubling the price of fuel would raisethe total cost per mile of driving by only about20 percent. (See figure 27. ) Third, over time theincreasing fuel efficiency of the average car willcompensate for the higher fuel costs, To be ef-

fective, a tax increase would have to be largeand imm ediate. 11

There are disadvantages associated with highgasoline taxes. They constrain mobility. Theyare inflationary and regressive. They removelarge sums of money from the economy. Theyproduce no incentive for producers to expandsupplies. To alleviate some of these undesirable

impacts, tax rebates have been proposed.The first major consumer benefit expected of

rebates is compensation for the regressiveness of the tax. The success of this would depend uponhow the rebates are made and how quickly theyare offered. In addition, rebates could put backinto the economy the billions of dollars re-moved by the tax (close to $40 billion could beremoved by a 50-cent-per-gallon tax on auto-mobile driving alone). It is also thought thatrebates could make the tax more politically ac-ceptable. Finally, it is believed that any increasein driving caused by the refund would be neg-ligible, since the change in total income causedby the rebates would be relatively small.

The extent to which aggregate gasoline con-sumption and automobile travel can be reducedby gasoline price increases is difficult to measuresince consumer reaction to higher gas prices hasbeen tested only in a limited range. The datathat are available indicate that small increases inthe price of gasoline are ineffective in achievingsignificant reductions in VMT and, therefore, infuel consump tion. The analysis carried out inthe Petroleum Conservation Case indicates that

the 10-cent gas tax would produce a decline intotal VMT of about 3.2 percent from the BaseCase. This assumes a price elasticity of – .22,which is an indication that, once discretionarytravel is eliminated through increases in gasolineprice, further reductions will be more and moredifficult to achieve. 12 Table 51 shows three re-cent assessments of the projected gasoline sav-ings that could be realized from the gasoline taxprogram proposed in the original National Ener-gy Plan.

The penetration of electric vehicles into the

auto fleet by the year 2000 would also serve toreduce liquid fuel consumption. Since it is—

‘ ‘U.S. Congress, Oftice of Technology Assessment, A) Iulyszs (>jthe Prclp(>scd NatIo)IL~l Et~erg,y PIUN (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Gov-ernment Printing Oftice, August 1977), p. 90.

“SRI, p. 1-13.

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o

80

60

40

20

0


Figure 27. —Cost of Operating a Suburban-Based Automobile

(in current dollars)

f

. 20

Other

Parking, tolls, etc..., ,,,. .

. . . . . . . Insurance

,.“ r

&~< .

60 62 64 66

................. ;IA, .*-....,

68 70 72 74

Table 51 .—Projected Gasoline Savings Under theNational Energy Plan Standby Gasoline Tax

(thousand barrels per day)

76

1980 1985 1990

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assumed that electricity is not taxed under thePetroleum Conservation Case, VMT by gaso-line-powered vehicles would be reduced bothbecause of electric-vehicle use and because of the effects of the gasoline tax.

Imposition of a gasoline tax would also spurthe production and sale of alternative fuels. Inthe Base Case, shale oil products (which are

assumed to be exempt from taxes) are expectedto become competitive with natural crude oilproducts by 1985. Coal-derived liquids wouldbecome competitive in about 1995. The effect of additional gasoline taxes would be to move for-ward the dates at which shale oil and coal liq-uids become competitive to 1982 and 1985, re-spectively. Alcohol and gasohol would becomecompetitive somewhat earlier.

As the after-tax price of gasoline approachesthe price of alternative fuels, the reluctance toinvest in alternative fuel plants would probably

diminish. On the other hand, environmentalregulations and water availability will becomeincreasingly important constraints. The net ef-fect of improved price competitiveness createdby a gasoline tax could raise total alternate fuelproduction levels up to 3.75 MMBD by the year2000, about 35 percent above the Base Case projection of 2,75 MMBD.

Free-Market Pricing

The existing Federal ceilings on the price of gasoline are a few cents above current marketprices. Free-market pricing would remove theseceilings. As petroleum demand grows and sup-plies become scarcer, the price would rise toprogressively higher equilibrium points. It isbelieved that higher prices would reduce con-sumer demand and provide an incentive for pro-ducers to expand supplies by searching for newsources or by continuing to pump oil out of wells as they become less profitable.

Photo Credit U S Department Of Energy

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Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings . 127

Allowing the gasoline market to seek its ownunimpeded price level would mean abandoningthe present Federal Government policy of regu-lating petroleum prices. Under the EmergencyPetroleum Allocation Act of 1973, a four-tierprice system was established. The lowest prices(first tier) apply to “old oil, ” defined as oil fromexisting wells up to the levels that were pro-duced in the base year of 1975. The next lowestprices (second tier) apply to “new oil, ” definedas oil produced from wells drilled since 1975 oroil obtained from existing wells in excess of 1975production levels. The next higher prices (thirdtier) apply to oil from stripper wells, which arewells that produce no more than 10 barrels perday. During the fall of 1977, Congress estab-lished a fourth price t ier to be applied toAlaskan oil. This sets the price of Alaskan oil atthe price of imported oil (including the price of entitlements) and makes Alaskan oil the highestpriced domestic source.

This pricing scheme for oil was designed withtwo major objectives in mind: to keep the priceof oil down, thereby protecting the consumerfrom higher prices and limiting profit levels of oil producers, and to encourage exploration forand production of oil from domestic oil sources.The need to protect consumers is based on therecognition that oil prices on the world marketare set by the OPEC nations and that theseprices are considerably greater than the cost of producing oil from wells that existed before thefourfold price increase of oil in 1974. This is therationale for the distinction between “old oil”

and “new oil” in the existing oil price regula-tions. It is recognized, however, that keepingprices low encourages consumption.

Deregulation of oil prices would preserve thesecond objective of present oil-pricing policy,encouragement of domestic exploration. How-ever, it would conflict with the objective of con-sumer protection and reduction of high profitlevels to domestic oil producers who are able toobtain oil at low cost from existing wells.

Opposition to extending the market approach

has developed on several grounds. First, theprice set by OPEC does not reflect the normalmarket equilibrium price nor does it have anyrelation to the cost of production. Second r ex-pert opinion varies widely on whether freeingoil prices from all controls would yield signifi -

cant additional supply from new and existingsources. Third, there are questions about the ex-t e n t o f e c o n o mic d i s ru p t io n th a t mig h t b ecaused by decontrol. The resulting higher priceswould be a heavy economic burden on auto-de-pendent people with low and moderate incomes.

Rationing

The two approaches to fuel conservation dis-cussed above are based on the premise thatdrivers will use less fuel because it costs more.Rationing is a mandatory approach that places alimitation on the amount of fuel allocated to avehicle or a driver. Some rationing approacheswould allow high fuel users to be able to pur-chase additional gasoline, but at significantlygreater cost.

The plan proposed by the Ford Administra-tion would have allowed users to purchase up toa specified amount of gasoline at the normal

price, A large tax of 50 cents or more would beassessed on additional amounts purchased.Drivers not requiring their full quota of untaxedgas could sell the rights to this gas to otherdrivers. The plan of the Carter Administrationwould allow the transfer of ration rights, butwould place an absolute ceiling on the totalamount of gasoline available to all automobiledrivers. Special classes of users and truckswould receive larger quotas. 14

If a rationing plan limited individual vehiclesor drivers to specified quotas, motorists couldcompensate in several ways. It is believed that

the primary response would be a shift to morefuel-efficient automobiles in order to maintainnormal travel patterns. Some drivers might alsorespond in other ways to conserve fuel—byshifting to carpools or by eliminating certaintrips, either altogether or by shifting to transit.The exact nature of these responses and any in-convenience to the motoring public would de-pend upon how the rationing was carried out,the extent to which special exceptions or userclasses were permitted, and the rate at which theceiling was lowered. Ideally, the ceiling wouldbe lowered at a measured rate, designed to giveconsumers adequate notice to purchase morefuel-efficient cars and avoid the consequences of a fuel limitation.

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A rationing program would have different ef-fects on each segment of the population. For ex-ample, rural dwellers typically drive longerdistances than urban dwellers. Thus, farmerswould probably suffer more than office work-ers, unless exceptions were built into the admin-istration of the rationing program, Moreover,owners of large, fuel-inefficient cars would bemore severely affected than owners of fuel-efficient cars. Figure 28 shows the effect o nmobility by trip purpose of a rationing plan thatlimits households to 10 gallons of gasoline per

car per week. If the household were using a 27-mpg car, mobility would not be significantly af-fected. However, a household using a 17.6-mpgcar would have to cut back sharply on t r i p s(probably nonwork trips) or use public transitto get to wo rk .

Photo Credit U S Department o/ Energy

Under the Base Case assumptions, the uncon-strained fuel demand of the Nation as a wholewould rise substantially, as would the need forimported petroleum. In 1985, imports would ac-count for 50 percent of domestic consumption.In 2000, imports would amount to 68 percent,assuming that that amount of oil was availableon the world market. If, after 1985, i m p o r t swere restricted by policy to 50 percent ]5 of con-sumption, allowable imports would fall to 7.oMMBD. Maximum consumption would be lim-ited to 14 MMBD, instead of 22.4 MMBD if de-

mand were unconstrained. (See figure 29. ) If theburden of this reduction fell equally on all sec-tors of the economy, total automobile petro-leum consumption would be restricted to 3.0

“The 50-percent level IS arbitrary and wa~ ch{~sen t{~r Illustrativepurp[)ws t}nl}.

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24

20

16

12

8

4

Miles Driven Annually, by Family Income and Trip Purpose

Distance household can travel if car

Earning a living

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Family income ($000 year)

MMBD in 2000. This would amount to an allo-cation of about 6 gallons per week per car,assuming a fleet of 148 million vehicles. TheBase Case assumes the average car would re-qu ire 9.6 gallons per week in 2000; c u r r e n tusage is estimated at 15 gallons per week.

A rationing program implemented graduallyover a long period would allow petroleum usersto change their automobile ownership and usagepatterns to minimize adverse impacts. Most of the responses previously outlined would beadopted in varying degrees by different popula-tion segments. This is not to say that mobilitywould remain unrestricted, since there wouldnot be the freedom of choice that exists today.Overall VMT would drop by about 15 percentfrom the Base Case to 1.53 trillion miles peryear. It is probable that the long-term impactswould be severe fortravel-dependent industries.Businesses such as resorts and drive-in restau-rants might survive short-term disruptions butnot a long-term erosion of their revenue source.

If the rationing system involved white market(transferable) coupons, the wealthier segments

SOURCE Sydec EE A p IV-62

of society would find their mobility less re-stricted than other groups. Also, with a whitemarket, there would be a transfer of incomefrom high fuel users to low fuel users. Com-pared to the impacts of deregulation, consumersand not producers would benefit from the

higher price. However, without the added in-come, producers would not have the incentiveto expand supplies.

Effects of Transition toAlternate Energy Sources

The need to make a transition from petro-leum-based fuels to alternate energy sources forall sectors has become increasingly evident in re-ce nt y e ar s. Th e d e ma n d fo r p e tro le u m h a sgrown so great worldwide that what were once

thought of as very large reserves a r e n o wviewed as inadequate to meet demand —possi-bly as early as the 1980’s or 1990’s. Other projections (based on the economic viewpoint thatthe cost of petroleum becomes prohibit ivelyhigh because of scarcity) conclude that the point

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5

4

1

Figure 29.—Effects of Gasoline Rationing on Automobile Fuel Consumption

.

5.2

I I

I I

II

I I

I I

I I

I I

I I

I II I

I I

I II I

I I

I InI I

I Im

4.8

IIII

I

III

I

I

IIII

4.5

7I II It I

I

I

I I

II

II

I

II

3.0

I

I

I

I

I

I

.

I I I I I I

I I II I I

I I I

v

I I

I I

I II

I I1976 1985 2000

Assumptions

— Limit if rationing is imposed. Fuel consumption of light-duty trucks would also be limited

i n same proportion as cars.

During that period, the demand for petroleum by automo-

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gressive conservation policies were initiated,they would not solve the long-term problem,but simply postpone it a few years. Since transi-tion to alternate energy sources will take evenlonger to accomplish, efforts to start the transi-tion must be undertaken soon if these resourcesare to be available when the supply of petro-leum eventually begins to decline.

T h e re a re a n u mb e r o f d i f f e re n t e n e rg yresources that can be used to produce fuels simi-lar to gasoline or diesel fuel, and there are anumber of other fuels that can potentia li tyreplace gasoline or diesel fuel for- poweringautomobiles. Roughly, these alternate energysources fall into four categories:

• Synth etic liquid fueIs (synfuels): These areliquid fuels that are chemically similar tocrude petroleum and that can be refinedinto automobile fuels. They can be derivedfrom either coal or oil shale. Using these

would require little or no change in theautomobile fuel distribution system or inengine technology.

• Alcohol fuels: Alcohol (primar ily ethanolor methanol ) can be used in p ure form or i nblends of up to 20 percent or more withgasoline. Ethanol is currently widely usedas a blend (2o percent) in Brazil, and isavailable in scattered Midwestern U.S.locations. Methanol requires large-scaleproduction facilities. Ethanol, which can beproduced in smaller scale plants, is most

easily obtained from biomass (i. e., plants,g r a i n , o r municipal an d agriculturalwastes). Alcohol fuels currently cost morethan gasoline, but have a higher octanerating. Blended fuels require no changes inauto engines, b u t n e a t (p u re ) a l c o h o lwould. Alcohol tends to improve engine ef-ficiency (miles per gallon equivalent) andburns cleaner than gasoline. Principal con-siderations include price and availability,and the need for special storage and distri-bution facilities to ensure against watercontamination which affects the combus-

tion process. (Chapter 10, Technology,contains more background information. )

q Electricity: A number of U.S. and foreignautomobile manufacturers are doing re-search and development on electrics. Major


problems with the current state of electrica u to mo b i le s in c lu d e p o o r p e r fo rma n c ecompared to conventionally powered cars,high initial cost, and limited capacity tostore energy.

Longer term alternatives: A number of dif-ferent automobile fuel systems have beenproposed for the longer term (post-2000),

including hydrogen-powered cars, [uel-cell-p o we re d a u to mo b i le s , a n d th e u se o f blended fuels based on hydrogen, such ashydrazine. Generally, these technologiesare still in their infancy.

Estimates of alternative fuel production andsales for 1985 an d 2000 are inherently specu-lative because there are few facilities now inoperation on a commercial scale. Table 52 sum-marizes several recent production estimates for2000. The Base Case assumed that alternativefuel production would be about 2.75 M M B Dunder current policies. While there are highrewards from producing synthetic gasolinesfrom coal or shale oil, the price today is far fromcompetitive with conventional gasoline, and theenvironmental risks are of great concern. Shale-derived liquids would become price competitiveby about 1985 and coal-derived fuels around1995. The Base Case also assumes that alcoholand gasohol would be part of the 2.75 M M B D(or equivalents) of liquid fuels.

The cost, performance, and market accept-ance of electric vehicles are highly dependent on

the state of battery technology. At present, bat-tery technology is not adequate for large-scaleapplication in electric vehicles. Although thelead-acid system is readily available and isalready in actual use , i ts high weight, lowspecific power, and low specific energy sharplylimit vehicle range between recharges. Im-proved batteries will be needed to make the elec-tric vehicle competitive with conventional auto-mobiles in performance and cost.

Table 53 presents several projections of themarket penetration of electric and hybrid vehi-

cles in 1985 and 2000. The variation in the rangeof estimates is indicative of the high degree of uncertainty associated with the developmentand successful commercialization of advancedbattery systems. For this study, it is estimatedthat the size of the electric vehicle fleet will be

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Table 52.—Estimates of Synthetic Fuel Production in 2000

(MMBD)

Coal liquids Oil shale Methanol TotalStanford Research Institute . . . . 2.0 4.0 4.0 10.0MIT Workshop on Alternate

Energy Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . 0-1.3 2.0 — 2.0-3.3Department of Transportation. . . 0.9 3.4 . 4.3Department of Interior . . . . . . . . . 0.7 2.0 — 2.7EXXON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — — — 0.5

Sydec/EEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.75 2.0 — 2.75

negligible in 1985. By the year 2000, it is projected that, with the incentive of policies such asthose in table 49, the size of the electric vehiclefleet could fall midway between the high andlow estimates of table 53—or about 11.5 mil-

lion. Estimates of hybrid-vehicle penetration arespeculative. The currently limited Federal sup-port for all-electric vehicles is an indication thatprojections of hybrid-vehicle penetration maybe overly optimistic.

Comparisons of the relative efficiency of con-ventional automobiles with battery-electric- and

hybrid-vehicles are difficult because size andperformance differ significantly in current de-signs. For example, if present conventionallypowered autos were designed for reduced per-formance comparable with currently available

electric and hybrid vehicles, their energy con-sumption in terms of Btu’s per mile would bequite similar. However, most of the potentialelectric- and hybrid-vehicles are somewhatsmaller than today’s diesel and gasoline cars andhence show better energy utilization. (See table54, )

Table 53.– Projections of Electric Vehicle Penetration

1980 1985 1990

Projection of new electric car sales ERDA —transportation energy

conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,500 500,000 2 millionERDA—market oriented program

planning study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 10/0 21 0/0Math-Tech, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 4,000 8,800

Projection of electric vehicle fleet ERDA—transportat ion energy

conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,400 1 million 18 millionERDA—market oriented program

planning study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 45,000 5.2 millionMath-Tech, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 9,000 66,400

Projection of electric-hybrid vehicle fleet Stanford Research Institute. . . . . . . . . . . . — 75,000 500,000

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Table 54.—Comparison of Fuel Economies

Fuel economy’Vehicle type kWh/mi Mpg Btu/mi

All electric Lead-acid 2-passenger . . . . . . 0.44 — 1,502Lead-acid 4-passenger . . . . . . 0.79 . 2,696Nickel-zinc 4-passenger . . . . . 0.51 — 1,741Lithium-sulfur 4-passenger. . . 0.45 — 1,536

Hybrid ICE/electricb Lead-acid 4-passenger . . . . . . 0.625 29 2,786Nickel-zinc 4-passenger . . . . . 0.45 32 2,247

Sodium-sulfur 4-passenger. . . 0.476 27 2,470Conventional ICE. . . . Subcompact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 34.3 3,644

Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 28.1 4,448Diesel Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 42.9 3,235

Compact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 35.1 3,954

IMPACTS

The primary effects of the policies discussedin this chapter will be conservation of petroleumor development of alternate energy sources. Theimpac ts , de f ined here as secondary conse-quences not directly related to policy objectives,will fall in the areas of environment, safety,mobility, cost to the consumer, and capital re-quirements for the automobile and fuel indus-tries. Not all of these impacts are adverse. Thereare some important secondary benefits fromconserving petroleum and making a transitionto new energy sources. This section describesthe major impacts that could result from pursu-ing the energy policies discussed above.

Environment

Impacts of Petroleum Conservation

In the aggregate, automobile emissions are in-fluenced by three principal factors: emissionstandards, engine types, and vehicle miles trav-eled. Since none of the fuel conservation policies

considered here assumes any change in automo-bile emission standards, the air quality impactsof conservation will result solely from enginecharacteristics and vehicle miles traveled. Of these, VMT is expected to have the more power-ful influence.

Ana lysis o f the Pe tro leum Conserva t ionCase, which does not include gasoline rationing,shows very little difference from the Base Casein terms of aggregate automobile emissions.With two exceptions, automobile emissions willbe reduced in 1985 an d 2000, but only slightly.Table 55 shows the expected national aggregatesof four automobile emissions in 1985 and 2000,with and without the adoption of PetroleumConservation Case policies.

Table 56 is an analysis of the factors that willinfluence automobile emissions in the PetroIeumConservation Case. For the th ree c r i te r iapollutants (CO, HC, and NO,), there would bereductions of 8 to 10 p e rc e n t in a u to mo b i leemissions, compared to the Base Case. Nearlyall of these reductions are attributable to thedecrease in automobile travel brought about byenergy conservation measures.

Policies in the Petroleum Conservation Caseare expected to lead to a much higher propor-tion of diesel automobiles in the fleet, as much

as 60 percent of new car sales by 2000 (com-pared to 25 percent in the Base Case). Becausediesel engines emit more particulate matter thangasoline engines, the impact of greater diesel useby 2000 would be higher levels of particulates—about 384,000 tons in 2000 because of the high

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134 • Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics of the Automobile Transportation System

Table 55.—Air Quality Impacts of Petroleum Conservation Case

(million tons per year)

1985 2000

Petroleum PetroleumAutomobile emissions Base Case Conservation Base Case ConservationCarbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.6 32.3 27.3 25.1Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.7Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.7Total suspended particulatesb . . 0.077 0.140 0.363 0.384

Table 56.—Factors Influencing Change in Automobile Emissions for the Petroleum Conservation Case

Automobile emissions in 2000 (million tons)

Carbon H ydro- Nitrogenmonoxide carbons oxides Particulatesa

Base Case. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.30 2.94 2.90 0.363Decreased VMT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 2.18 – 0.23 – 0.24 —

Increased diesels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 0.06 — + 0.021Petroleum Conservation Case . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.12 2.65 2.66 0.384

Net difference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 2.18 – 0.29 – 0.24 + 0.021Percent difference. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 8% – 10% – 8% + 6%

use of diesels in contrast to 363,000 tons withonly moderate diesel use.

In contrast with other petroleum conserva-tion measures, gasoline rationing would have amajor beneficial impact on air quality. If gaso-line and diesel fuel consumption were restricted

to about 6 gallons per car per week by rationingin 2000, VMT would drop nearly 15 percentfrom Base Case projections. The impact, interms of automobile emissions, would be cor-responding decreases in pollutants from auto-mobile exhaust. This would be at least double,and perhaps triple, the reductions expected fromany other combination of petroleum conserva-tion policies.

Impacts of Transition to Alternate Energy Sources

The use of electric vehicles to replace gasolineor diesel vehicles would reduce mobile sourceemissions but would cause some rise in power-plant emissions within the region. Table 57shows the per-mile emissions of gasoline and

diesel vehicles in the year 2000 and the emis-sions from a coal- or oil-fired generating plantused to supply power for an electric vehicle for 1mile of travel. As this table shows, the use of electric vehicles necessitates a trade-off of en-vironmental impacts. Vehicle emissions indowntown areas will be reduced, but emissions

of NO X and S02 from powerplants within theregion will increase. The benefit of trading off CO and HC for NO X and S02, would have to beassessed on a regional basis, taking into consid-eration the other emission sources in the region.On the whole, however, it may prove techno-logically easier and economically sounder tocontrol emissions from one or more stationarysources than thousands of mobile sources,

The two most promising synthetic liquid fuelsfor automobiles come from oil shale and lique-faction of coal. Extensive development of either

of these synfuels poses serious environmentalproblems in the regions where processing andrefining facilities are located. Some of these im-pacts can be reduced or mitigated by carefulcontrol of the processing plants and by judicioussite selection.

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Ch, 5—Energy Issues, Policlis, and Findings 135

Table 57.— Electric Vehicle Emissions Compared to Gasoline Vehicle Emissions in 2000

— .Electric vehicle powerplant emissions’

Gasoline vehicle emissions Coal-fired Oil-fired(composite vehicle) (gm/mi) (gm/mi) (gm/mi)

co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.78 0.012-0.021 .0001HC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.461 0.004-0.007 .0001NOY

b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.139 1.51-2.66 0.649-1.14S02 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.13 2.597-4.57 1.731-3.02

The air pollutants produced by a coal lique-faction plant include hydrogen sulfide, am-monia, particulate matter, hydrocarbons, sulfurdioxide, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen diox-ide. Other trace materials, such as polycyclicorganic matter and heavy metals, may also bepresent in waste streams. The major sources of

these emissions are coal impurities (either off-gases or their treatment wastes), fugitive emis-sions from leaking equipment, airborne particu-la te from coal handling, and exhaust fromcombustion of coal.

Large amounts of water are used in the coalliquefaction process for product purification,cooling , s team genera tion , and san itary sys-tems. Water demand for a full-scale liquefactionplant is on the order of 50,000 gallons per day.This water, ultimately discharged as waste, re-quires treatment to remove suspended particu-

late, ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, trace metals,tars, oils, and phenols.

Two other environmental characteristics of liquefaction are of particular concern: the in-herently hazardous nature of organic com-pounds generated in this process, and the en-vironmental impacts specific to the use of lique-fied coal products. Process and waste streamsmay contain certain organic compounds of atoxic or carcinogenic nature that are hazardousto workers. Plant layout can reduce or eliminatesome of these compounds from waste streams.The remaining carcinogenic and toxic organiccompounds can be e liminated from gaseousemissions, water effluents, and solid wastes byoxidation and decomposition.

Many of the organic liquids derived from coalare both carcinogenic and toxic (as is natural

crude oil), and it is not expected that the prod-ucts of liquefaction can be rendered wholly in-ert. Rather, elaborate and rigorous proceduresmust be developed to ensure that workers andhandlers of the liquefaction products are pro-tected from inhalation, skin exposure, or inges-tion of these substances. Use of coal-derived

fuels and feedstocks may produce new second-ary pollution problems during subsequent proc-essing or utilization.

Liquefaction produces a low-ash, low-sulfurfuel that has a high nitrogen content. In fact, liq-uefaction of coal can actually increase the nitro-gen content on a per-Btu basis. To avoid dam-aging the catalysts in the refinery, some of thisnitrogen must be removed before the fuel isrefined to gasoline. Unless denitrified, coal-derived liquid gasoline used as a motor fuel canresult in higher emissions of nitrogen oxide than

gasoline refined from petroleum.Coal liquids also contain a high proportion of

benzene, which has recently been recognized asa carcinogen, Coal-derived gasoline typicallycontains 5 to 10 percent benzene, in comparisonto about 2 percent in gasoline from petroleum.Both EPA and the Occupational Safety andHealth Administration (OSHA) are expected toissue regulations perta ining to exposure tobenzene in petroleum refining and gasolinehandling.

Shale oil can be produced by either of two

processes: surface retorting or underground (insitu) processing. Surface processing is character-ized by significant land disturbance in miningoperations, large volumes of spent shale, rela-tively high water use, and air and water emis-sions from retort operations. In situ processing

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minimizes these impacts but increases the poten-tial for ground water contamination, aquiferdisruption, and subsidence or uplifting at thesurface.

Gaseous emissions are expected to be greaterfor surface retorting of oil shale than for under-ground processing. The primary air pollutantsinclude hydrogen sulfide (which could either be

converted to elemental sulfur or the less harmfulsulfur oxide), particulate (which can be physi-cally collected or contained), and hydrocarbons(which can be contained or incinerated). Otherpollutants include ammonia, nitrogen oxides,carbon monoxide, and toxic trace elements.Control systems are available for these pollu-tants, but their efficiency and dependability inthese specific applications have not been demon-strated.

Many of these emissions do not occur with insitu processing. However, upgrading, refine-ment, and storage of the product are steps com-mon to both processes and similar impacts willoccur. One potential impact specific to in situprocessing is the production and release of gas-eous pollutants from underground retorting.The effectiveness of techniques to minimize for-mation of gaseous pollutants and to contain andtreat them will not be known until the technol-ogy of in situ processing has undergone addi-tional field testing.

The amount of water required in shale proc-essing may constrain the exploitation of majoroil shale deposits in arid regions. The principal

deposits of oil shale are found in Colorado,Utah, and Wyoming, where water supply is lim-ited. Extensive development of these deposits,using present mining and surface-retortingmethods, could cause unacceptable burdens onthe water supply and could cause economichardsh ip fo r fa rming and indust ry in theseareas. Comparatively, in si tu processing re-quires less water for shale processing than sur-face retorting and refining.

Water effluents from shale processing plantsare also an environmentaI hazard. With surface

retorting, spent shale leachate, runoff, and con-taminated retort water can contaminate localwater supplies if not properly collected andtreated. Retort water, primarily composed of water formed by combustion and pyrolysis butincluding a small quantity of ground water, gen-

erally contains unacceptabledissolved solids, ammonia,and organic compounds.

concentrations of hydrogen sulfide,

During in situ processing, backflood water(natural ground water that reenters an in situretort after its development) becomes contami-nated as it contacts the spent, or partially spent,oil shale and newly exposed mineral materials.

In a similar way, Ieachate and runoff from sur-face-processed shale disposal areas occurs if theshale is exposed to rain and snowfall. Labora-tory studies of leaching retorted shale indicatethat inorganic solids, hydrocarbons, and toxictrace elements may be present.

Site management and land reclamation areimportant environmental concerns in the com-mercialization of oil shale. Oil shale miningcauses significant disruption of the land, both inexcavation and in disposing of the solid wastesproduced by shale processing. In surface retort-ing, these wastes—consisting mainly of spentsh a le , m in in g d e b r i s , a n d sh a le f in e s—a redeposited above ground, where prevention of leaching and contamination of water by organicmateria ls are major problems. With in si turetorting, most of this waste is left under-ground, but special precautions must be takento avoid geological disturbance. Hydraulic andexplosive fracturing by in si tu re torting cancause physical disruption and cracking of strata.There may also be severe disruption of adjacentaquifers and subsidence or uplifting at the sur-face. Depending upon the proximity and struc-

ture of aquifers, drinking supplies from groundwater may be contaminated, or there may bechanges in the flow and storage characteristicsof aquifers. Subsidence at the surface, whichmay not occur immediately, can damage build-ings and roadways or affect options for subse-quent land use.

Safety

The energy conservation policies in the Petro-leum Conservation Case are expected, on the

whole, to have a beneficial impact on safety.The reduction in automobile VMT broughtabout by Petroleum Conservation Case policiesis expected to result in a proportionate reduc-tion in automobile-related death and injury.Thus, while the death and injury toll will con-

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tinue to rise through the period 1975-2000, theincrease is not projected to be as great as itwould be under Base Case conditions.

Enforcement of a national 55 mph speed limit,intended primarily as an energy conservationmeasure, will also result in decreases in auto-mobile accidents—approximately 5 percent inurban areas and 6 percent in rural areas. This

projected reduction is consis ten t wi th theobserved reductions in fatal accident involve-ments which have been attributed to the 55 mphspeed limit since 1974. In the Petroleum Con-servation Case, the proportion of small cars inthe fleet is expected to grow to 90 percent by1985, compared to 69 percent in the Base Case.The higher proportion of small, and perhapsless crashworthy, vehicles in the fleet couldhave an adverse impact on safety.

Mobility

The conservation policies selected for thePetroleum Conservation Case were those thatpromised to reduce petroleum consumption byautomobiles without major adverse impacts onmobility. The analysis supports this expecta-tion. Under the Petroleum Conservation Case,total automobile VMT is projected to drop lessthan 1 percent from the Base Case level in 1985,

due primarily to adjustments in the gasoline taxdesigned to keep the cost per mile of drivingconstant. By 2000, the reduction in automobileVMT is projected to be 3 percent below the Base

Case level, again due to increased gasolinetaxes. However, this reduction is not expectedto be proportionate for all types of driving.There would be s ign if ican t e l imina t ion o rshortening of automobile trips for shopping,social, and recreational purposes. There wouldalso be slight VMT reductions as a result of shifting to higher occupancy automobiles or totransit for work trips.

The conditions of travel (e.g., congestion andaverage travel speed) are expected to be virtual-ly the same under the Base Case and the Petro-

leum Conservation Case, Travel speeds will be

slightly higher than under the Base Case, butthey will still be considerably lower than theprevailing 1975 speeds. 19

Because of the policy of increased transitfunding, transit r idership is projected to in-crease—3 percent higher in 1985 and 8 percenthigher in 2000 compared to the Base Case. Someof this increased ridership will be the result of

automobile drivers shifting to transit (primarilyfor work trips), and the remainder will representnew trips by the elderly, poor, and handicappedbecause of improved transportation service.

Policies to promote the development and useof alternate energy sources will have a generallybeneficial impact on mobility, particularly byautomobile, since they will contribute to alle-viating the severity of the projected petroleumshortfall. In fact, the preservation of automo-bility is the underlying reason for promoting atransition program. However, the higher pro-

jected prices of all fuels will have a slightdampening effect on automobile use.

Cost and Capital

Impacts of Petroleum Conservation

Under the Petroleum Conservation Case, theassumed higher cost of fuel and increased gaso-line taxes will combine to raise automobile oper-ating costs slightly over Base Case levels in both1985 an d 2000 for all size classes. The magni-tude of these cost increases would differ greatly

according to automobile size.

The total price (in 1975 dollars) for gasoline(including taxes) is projected to be $0.777 p e rgallon in 1985 for the Base Case and $0.907 p ergallon under Petroleum Conservation policies.This would amount to an average increase of 12percent in the fuel cost per mile of auto travelThis price increase ranges from under $0.03 permile for subcompacts to over $0.05 for standardand large cars. For the year 2000, the price of gasoline including taxes is projected to be $1.39per gallon, compared to $1.21 per gallon in the

Base Case. This increase of $0.18 per gallonrepresents a 1.5-percent rise in price - and adds$0.04 per mile to the cost of driving a sub-compact and up to $0.07 for large cars.

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The annual auto sales in 1985 are projected tobe only slightly lower (1.5 percent) than underthe Base Case. However, the mix of new carsales changes dramatically from the present andfrom 1985 Base Case projections. (See table 58. )

Under the Base Case, it is expected that 69 per-cent of the cars sold would be compacts or sub-compacts (including small luxury cars). Underthe Petroleum Conservation Case, nearly 90

percent of the cars sold would be in theseclasses. Cars now classified as standard andintermediate would virtually disappear.

Under the Base Case, it was assumed that 18

percent of new car sales in 1985 would be im-ports. The Petroleum Conservation policies,however, would create a strong demand forfuel-efficient cars. To maintain 82 percent of themarket, U.S. manufacturers would have to shifttheir product mix much more rapidly than in theBase Case . Domest ic smal l ca r p roduc t ionwould increase from 3.2 million in 1976 to 9.2

million by 1985 if the Petroleum Conservationpolicies were in force.

While the volume of new car sales would notbe appreciably affected in the Petroleum Con-servation Case, manufacturer’s revenues wouldbe somewhat lower than in the Base Case. Grossrevenue from sales in 1985 would be up about$8 billion from 1975–approximately $4.5 bil-lion less than the $12.5 billion increase expectedunder Base Case conditions for 1985. As a per-centage of 1975 sales, manufacturer’s gross reve-nue would be 20 percent higher under Petroleum

Conservation policies, compared to 32 percenthigher in the Base Case.

The Base Case projects a 10-percent penetra-tion of the new car market by diesel automo-biles in 1985. Under Petroleum Conservationpolicies, manufacturers would be likely to em-phasize diesels as a way to meet tighter fuel-economy standards. The fuel economy of dieselswould also make them attractive to consumers.These factors could combine to boost dieselsales to 25 percent of the new car market by1985. Since diesels are assumed to sell at $100 to$200 above gasoline-powered cars, the increasein diesel sales could lead to an additional $100million to $200 million in manufacturer’s rev-enues, compared with the Base Case.

Along with the projected decline in automo-bile sales and manufacturers’ revenues, thecapital requirements of the industry would in-c rease . The Pe tro leum Conserva t ion Casewould require additional capital expenditures

for retooling and changes in vehicle productionlines and would require writing off investmentsin some current lines of intermediate and largecars. The combination of increased capital re-quirements and the change to a less profitablemix would severely strain the industry’s abilityto generate capital from internal sources. Fur-ther difficulty would be added by the introduc-tion of electric vehicles, which would be viewedas an entirely new economic venture that wouldcut into the sales of gasoline-powered cars. Pro-duction of electric vehicles on a large scalewould be an essentially new product line for an

Table 58.—1985 New Car Sales Mix for the Petroleum Conservation Case

(thousands)

1985

1976 Base Case Petroleum ConservationModel Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Subcompact . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,225 22 3,940 30 5,300 41Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,921 19 3,940 30 4,657 36Intermediate . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,831 28 2,111 16 798 6

Standard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,022 20 936 7 0 0Small luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . 506 5 1,196 9 1,569 12Large luxury. . . . . . . . . . . . . 606 6 935 7 540 4

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,111 13,058 12,891

NOTE Numbers may not add due to roundingSOURCE Sydec/EEA, p IV.80

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Ch. 5—Energy Issues, Policies, and Findings q 1 3 9

industry stillline-powered

engaged in manufacturing gaso-cars, and would add considerably

to the industry’s capital requirements.

The combination of increased capital re-quirements, lower revenues and profits, inten-sified competition in the lower size classes, andincreased penetration of new engine technologywould place stress on the less profitable firms in

the industry and increase the likelihood thatthey might suffer severe financial losses. Fur-ther, increasing small-car demand would en-courage foreign producers to locate in theUnited States, perhaps reducing the marketshare of domestic manufacturers.

Impacts of Transition to Alternate Energy Sources

An estimate was made of the approximateamount of capital required to develop alter-native fuel industries capable of supplying 2.75MMBD by 2000. This analysis was based on theassumption that 2.0 MMBD would be producedfrom shale oil and 0.75 MMBD from coal. Thisestimate, however, is highly speculative becauseof uncertainty about the costs of construction,pollution abatement, and synfuel processing.Furthermore, the ability of the petroleum in-dustry to finance this level of investment willdepend on the success of the industry in gener-ating cash flow from its previous investment.

A recent study by Stanford Research Insti-tute zo estimated the capital costs of synfuel pro-duction facilities. Shale oil production of 2MMBD would require 20 plants, each capableof producing 100,000 barrels per day. Theseplants are estimated to cost $823 million each,

or a total of $16.5 billion. Coal synthetic liquidfuel production of 0.75 MMBD would requireapproximately eight plants capable of produc-ing 100,000 barrels per day. Costs for theseplants are estimated to be $1.3 billion each, or atotal of $10.4 billion. Thus, about $27 bill ionwould have to be invested between 1980 a n d1995 to create an industry capable of producing2.75 MMBD of synthetic fuels by 2000.

-’f; \ l I)ic A\ i)n, (’t d ] SU)lf)llfj(- 1 lql(fti Fli{’1. I)t~7’L,/ (7~1)11[.)lf

,4 L,.1, +. ))1 t,tI , f [ ‘I tI . 111 F({( t( I. pr t~p.1 rod t or l-’ S Entlr~\ ’ I{ewarch.:n[l [ )t’~(’loprment Adn71n] \ t r<itlon, ERI)A 7b-12Q 2 ~ \ lenlo I)drk,C dlit $1<1 I n t(>rndt l(~nal IUIY 1 ~70

To place the $27 billion in context, it is esti-mated that $116.5 billion will be invested by theentire energy industry by 1985 an d $207.8 bil-l ion will be invested by 1995. 21 Of this, $ 3 6 . 2

billion by 1985 and $47.4 billion by 2000 will beinvested by the petroleum industry for conven-tional fuel production. In 2000, energy invest-ments will constitute approximately 32 percentof fixed investment by all U.S. business. The

capital requirements for alternative fuels wouldraise this to 35 percent.

The impact of changes in the mix of gasolineand diesel fuel are important from the stand-point of the refining industry. It is projected thatpetroleum conservation policies will result ingreater use of diesels, which would account forabout 10 percent of the motor fuel consumed in1985 and almost 50 percent by 2000. The mostlikely impact of this shift in fuel mix would be tocreate pressures on the relative prices of refineryproducts and on refinery product demands. The

premium price that has been paid for crudeswith high gasoline content would no longerapply in a situation where rising diesel fuel con-sumption drives up the refinery demand for pre-viously low-cost crudes with high kerosene anddisti l la te fuel content. As the proportion of gasoline to diesel fuel decreases, the price of diesel fuel relative to gasoline would rise due tothe increased allocation of total refinery costs todiesel production. Also, shifts in relative priceswould probably result in shifts in markets forthe fuels. For example, lower cost gasoline couldbecome an attractive feedstock for petrochemi-

cals, displacing distillate fuels.Pressures on prices and on investment and

operating costs because of changes in auto fuelmix might be offset by the extent to which thefuel mix shift reduced the total demand by refin-eries for crude oil. The costs of crude oil inputsmay be a much more significant factor in totalrefinery costs than the annualized capital invest-ment costs. Thus, to the extent that the relative-ly higher fuel economy of diesels would notresult in increased travel demand, the increasedproportion of diesels in the fleet would result in

reduced crude oil requirements for refiners.“ l h l c ]

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\

Chapter 6.– ENVIRONMENT ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .144

Air Pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........144Other Environmental Problems . ............147

Present Policy q. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .150

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153Policy Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .154Effects q. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156

Air Quality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........156Other Environmental Effects . . . . . . . . . . .. ...164

Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . ...........166Safety. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............167Mobility . . . . . . . . . ........................188Cost and Capital. . ........................170

Analysis of lndividual Policies . ...............170Regional Standards . ................,.....171Mobile-Stationary SourceTradeoff . .........171Mandatory lnspection and Maintenance. . . . ..179


59. Automobile Emissions and Air Quality-197514560. Estimated Number of People Subjected to

Traffic Noise . . . . . . ..................,...14861. Median Noise Levels and Urban Traffic Mix. .14862. Selected Laws Relating to Environmental

impacts of Automobiles and Highways. ... ..l5l63. Policies for lmproved Environment Case ....15564. Assumptions and Conditions for lmproved

Environment Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..15765. Projected Automobile Emissions for the

Improved Environment Case. . ..,..........159

Page

66. Analysis of Effects of lmproved EnvironmentPolicies . . . . . . . . ........................159

67. Projected Violations ofAir QualityStandards,Improved Environment Case. . .............164

88. Automobile Energy Demand, Improved

Environment Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16769. Cost Effectiveness of Control Strategies forN OXEmission in 2000. . ...................173

70. Electric-Vehicle Emissions Compared toGasoline-Vehicie Emissions, 2000..........175

71. State Motor Vehicle Inspection Programs ...18072. lmpacts of Mandatory Testing and

Maintenance of Emissions Control Devices. .181

LIST OF FIGURESFigure No, Page

30. Comparison of Automobile Emissions, BaseCase vs. improved Environment Case . ......158

31. Projected Emissions From All Sources,1975-2000, improved Environment Policies.. .162

32. Population Exposed to Air Pollution,improved Environment Case. . .............163

33. Auto Occupant Fatal and Injury Crashesand Auto Property Damage Crashes, improvedEnvironment Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .168

34. Cost-Effectiveness of NOX Control Strategies 17335. Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......17636. Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......17737. Projected NitrogenOxide Emissions for

Washington, Houston,and Chicago . .......178

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ENVIRONMENT ISSUES,POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

CHAPTER

0

SUMMARY

T h e e n v i ro n me n ta l p ro b le ms c re a te d b ywidespread and intensive automobile use in-clude air pollution, noise, disposal of solidwastes, and water contamination. In addition,the impacts of automobiles and highways oncommunities, rural areas, parklands, and natu-ral preserves are of concern, not only because of possible harm to the physical environment butalso because of adverse social and economic

consequences.Until recently , the amount of a tmospheric

pollutants emitted by automobiles had beengrowing each year. Emission controls requiredby the 1970 Clean Air Act and its amendmentsare helping to reverse this trend. Projections forthe year 2000—assuming compliance with the1977 Clean Air Act amendments, but no otherautomobile controls—show that automobileemissions for the country as a whole will bereduced from their current levels, even thoughautomobile travel is expected to grow by 75 per-

cent. Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emis-s i o n s f r o m a u t o m o b i l e s a r e pro jec ted todecrease by about 60 percent. The reduction innitrogen oxide emissions will be smaller—about30 percent. However, these attainments will stillleave the country far short of the air qualitygoals specified in the Clean Air Act.

Automobiles are not the only source of airp o l lu t io n . O th e r t r a n sp o r ta t io n mo d e s , in -dust r ia l p lan ts , power-genera ting faci li ties ,commercial establishments, and home heatingalso contribute substantial amounts of pollu-tants to the a tmosphere . While automobileemissions are expected to represent a decliningshare of pollutants from all sources betweennow and 2000, the impacts of automobile usewill remain a major problem in urban areas.

Projections of regional air quality in 1985 and

2000 show that violations of the carbon monox-ide and oxidant standards, though decreasing infrequency, will still be common occurrences. In2000, about 10 percent of the 247 Air QualityControl Regions (AQCRs) in the United Statesare expected to experience violations of the car-bon monoxide standard. Violations of the stan-dard for photochemical oxidants are expected inalmost 25 percent of the regions. Since these

violations will generally occur in the mostpopulous areas, the number of persons exposedto hazardous concentrations of air pollutantswill remain very high—perhaps as many as 136

million persons, or about half the population in2000. Since automobiles are particularly heavycontributors to peak concentrations of carbonmonoxide and photochemical oxidants, addi-tional measures to control exhaust emissionswill be needed to improve air quality in urbanareas,

Three policy alternatives to reduce automo-

bile emissions have been considered: furthertightening of new car standards (especially forn it rogen ox ides), manda tory inspect ion andmaintenance, and restriction of automobile use.Analysis shows that further tightening of newcar standards would be only marginally effec-tive and, in the case of nitrogen oxides, coulddelay or prevent the use of diesels. A nationwideprogram of inspection and maintenance of vehicles in use could produce major improve-ments in air quality. Estimates based on Envi-ronmental Protection Agency (EPA) data in-dicate that, within 8 years after implementation,

mandatory inspection and maintenance wouldreduce automobile emissions of carbon monox-ide and hydrocarbons by 60 percent and 35 per-cent, respectively, from what they would bewithout such a program. Control of automobileuse would be effective as a supplementary

143

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measure in specific locations, provided thatcompensating improvements in mass transit arealso made, However, as a general measure or asa long-term strategy, automobile use controlsappear to be of limited value since they wouldplace l imita tions on mobili ty in re turn forrelatively small improvements in air quality.

Projections of other environmental impacts of

automobiles and highways—noise, communitydisruption, intrusion in agricultural , recrea-tional, and wilderness areas, and disposal of scrap vehicles and parts—do not indicate theneed for major new polic ies by the FederalGovernment to control automobile system char-acteristics and use. Existing policies, if judi-ciously and vigorously applied, appear to beadequate to contain or minimize adverse envi-ronmental impacts,

The introduction of new technology for auto-mobile propulsion systems and fuels raises theprospects of new or more serious impacts on theenvironment. The projected increase in the useof diesel engines may call for new measures tocontrol nitrogen oxide emissions (which are par-ticularly high for diesels) or other substances(such as nitrosamines or particulate matter)found in diesel exhaust. More extensive use of

electric vehicles may necessitate placing morestringent controls on power-generating plantssupplying the electricity for storage batteries.There are major environmental problems asso-ciated with the production of synthetic fuelsfrom coal or oil shale. In addition, the highbenzene content of coal-derived liquids couldcause serious health and safety problems, bothduring production and distribution and whenburned as a motor fuel.

BACKGROUND

Air Pollution

In 1975, the 95 milUnited States traveled

lion automobiles in theslightly over 1 trillion

miles. During the year, these automobiles emit-ted more than 81 million tons of atmosphericpollutants. As a result of pollution from auto-mobiles, combined with emissions from otherforms of transporta tion and from sta tionary

sources, the National Ambient Air QualityStandards for either carbon monoxide or photo-chemical oxidants were exceeded in about athird of the AQCRs throughout the country. 1

(See table 59. )

These figures are national aggregates and donot fully reflect the effects on the population inareas of extensive and concentrated automobileuse—chiefly the central parts of cities, butsometimes the surrounding suburbs as well. Inthose urban areas, where both population andautomobile use are the greatest and where air

pollution from nonautomotive sources is also

the highest, it is estimated that between 125 and150 million people were potentially exposed atleast once during the year to concentrations of carbon monoxide or photochemical oxidantsthat exceeded established Federal standards.The effects of this exposure on human healthcannot be calculated with certainty. Estimates

vary both as to the degree of danger and its im-portance for the more vulnerable segments of the population—infants, the elderly, and thosewith respiratory or cardiac disorders. However,the evidence clearly indicates that atmosphericpollution (to which the automobile is a majorcontributor) is cause for serious concern.

Recognition of the automobile as a source of air pollution dates back nearly a quarter of acentury to the publication of experimentalstudies by Haagen-Smit, who described theprocess by which organic substances (such as

hydrocarbons) and nitrogen oxides accumulatein the atmosphere and form photochemical oxi-dants when exposed to the ultraviolet compo-nent of sunlight. Haagen-Smit further demon-strated the role played by automobile exhaust,which contains both hydrocarbons and oxides

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Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings q145

Table 59.—Automobile Emissions and Air Quality–1975

Automobiles All sourcesEmissions (million tons/year)Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3 119.5Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 29.4Nitrogen Oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 22.5

Air quality Nu m b e r

Carbon monoxideNumber of AQCRsa exceeding standardb. . . . . . . . . 43Number of AQCRs exceeding 2 x standard . . . . . . . 25

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Photochemical oxidantsNumber of AQCRs exceeding standard’ . . . . . . . . . 49Number of AQCRs exceeding 2 x standard. . . . . . . 20Number of AQCRs exceeding 3 x standard. . . . . . . 8Number of AQCRs exceeding 4 x standard. . . . . . . 7

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

Photo Credit U S Departrnent of Transportation

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of the number of people exposed to variouslevels of traffic noise.

Table 60.—Estimated Number of People Subjectedto Traffic Noise

At or aboveoutdoor Ldn

55. . . . . . . . . . . .

60. . . . . . . . . . . .65. . . . . . . . . . . .70. . . . . . . . . . . .75. . . . . . . . . . . .

Persons subjected (mill ions)Urban traffic Freeway traf fic

93.4 4.9

59.0 3.124.3 , 2.56.9 1.91.3 0.9

There is no generally accepted standard forevaluating noise as a disruptive or nuisance fac-tor in human activity. The sensitivity to noisevaries widely among individuals and for thesame individual as a function of age, general

health, type of noise, time of day, activity inwhich engaged, and so forth. Because many of these are subjective factors, there is no reliableway to estimate the extent to which automobilenoise has an adverse effect on human activity,personal comfort, and sense of well-being.

The automobile is relatively quiet in com-parison with other vehicles that make up thetraffic stream. However, because the automo-bile is the preponderant component of traffic, itmust be considered a major contributor to traf-fic noise, especially in urban areas. (See table61. ) Measures to achieve reduction in traffic

noise must therefore give consideration to sup-pression or elimination of automobile-producednoise.

Table 61 .—Median Noise Levels andUrban Traffic Mix

Median noiselevel dB(A) Percent of

Source at 50 feeta urban traffic

Heavy-duty trucks . . . 85 1.0Medium-duty trucks . 77 6.0Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 0.5

Motorcycles. . . . . . . . 82

Automobiles. . . . . . . 65 91.5:

aThe de~,bel ScaIe ,s Iogarlthmlc, each Increase of 10 dB repreSentS a doubling

of loudnessb A t 27.mph crul~fng spe~d< rn~d,ao autornob[le noise IS 60 dB(A) DUrlng acce l

eratlon In urban areas, the median noise level IS 72 dB(A]SOURCE U S Department of Transportation. Air Oual)ty. Nojse and ~ealt?r.

Report of a Panel of the Interagency Task Force on Motor VehicleGoa~s Beyond 1980, March 1976, pp 6-21

The disposal of solid waste produced by theautomobile system is a lso an environmentalproblem. Each year, about 7 million cars arescrapped—amounting to more than 13 milliontons of solid waste, largely steel and iron, butalso including aluminum, copper, other metals,rubber, and plastics, About two-thirds of these

junk cars are salvaged and processed to recoverscrap materials, but the remainder are eitherdisposed of in land fills or left to rust along theroads or in vacant lots. In addition to thevehicles themselves, about 150 million tires and50 million batteries are discarded each year.13

Only a fraction of these items is reclaimedthrough salvage; the rest (amounting to perhapsas much as 5 million tons) is added to municipalrefuse. Overall, it is estimated that automobilesolid wastes make up about 7 percent of thetotal commercial , residentia l , and municipalwaste in the United States each year. 14 T h i sfigure does not include the additional millions of

tons of litter deposited along streets and roadsby motorists. While disposal of waste is largelya municipal concern, Federal policy may play arole in determining the composition (and hencerecoverability) of automobile scrap or in pro-moting more productive use of scrap vehiclesand parts.

Automobiles and highways also have impor-tant impacts on water quality. Highway con-struction leads to stream pollution by erosionand sedimentation from excavations or by con-taminating runoff water with chemicals or othermaterials used in roadbuilding. Road salt and

other chemicals used to clear streets and high-ways of snow and ice are carried away by run-off water and pollute streams or destroy vege-tation in the path of the runoff. Automobilesdeposit a variety of materials on the road sur-face. These are subsequently either dissolved orb o rn e a wa y b y ru n o f f wa te r in to n e a rb ystreams. Automobile deposits include exhaustco mp o ne nt s, lu br i ca n t s, co olan t s , hydraulicfluids, and tire materials. In addition to thematerials deposited on the road, the automobilesystem produces millions of gallons of wastefluids (crankcase oil, hydraulic fluids, battery

acid, and spilled fuel) that may make their wayinto soil and water. Even if measures are taken

‘ ‘Motor V e h i c l e hlanulacturers Association, A4(Ifc7r VPIIICIC

Facts [ztld Figzirm 77 (Detroit: Motor Vehicle ManufacturersAssociation, IQ77).

“Sydw ‘EEA, p. 111-127.

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to prevent their drainage into the surroundingso il and wate r , the d isposal o f these l iqu idwastes (chiefly used crankcase oil, coolants, andbattery acid) poses an important environmentalproblem. As with solid waste, the treatment anddisposal of liquid wastes and effluents are large-

ly local matters. However, Federal policy mayhave an influence, either through requiring con-trol of water quality impacts (for example, as aprecondition for Federal funding of highways)or through promoting environmentally soundmethods of treatment, disposal, or reclamation,

The environmental impacts of the automobileand highway system reach far beyond the physi-cal effects on the atmosphere, water, and soilenumerated thus far. There is also a class of im-pacts that are variously designated as social im-pacts, community impacts, or quality-of-life im-

pacts. These include a number of undesirableconsequences of highway building and automo-bile use—among which are displacement of homes and businesses, denial of accustomed ac-cess to facilities and services, disruption of com-munity cohesion, alteration of land values (and

Phofo Credlf U S Department of Transporfaflon

property taxes), removal of land from agricul-tural production, endangerment of terrestria lecosystems, invasion of natural preserves andpr is tine a reas, and in fr ingement on si tes o f historical, archaeological, natural, or aestheticimportance. The need to protect specifically af-

fected individuals (and society in general) fromthese impacts of automobiles and highways,while assuring all the wider benefits of mobility,is one of the most controversia l and keenlydebated questions of national environmentalpolicy. Part of the controversy stems from thelack of an objective method to quantify theseimpacts and to assess costs and benefits, manyof which may be intangible. The question is alsocontroversial because it tends to pit the valuesand desires of the automobile-using public atlarge against the values of a relatively smallgroup of affected or interested parties (residents

of a particular neighborhood, those who wantto preserve a certain natural site, or those whowant a community of a special character). En-vironmental considerations of this sort tend toraise profound questions of social and economicequity.

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PRESENT POLICY

The present policy of the Federal Governmenton environmental matters is set forth in a varie-ty of documents—Federal Statutes and the U.S.Code, Presidential Executive Orders, the Codeof Federal Regulations, Department of Trans-

porta tion (DOT) Orders, and administra tiverulings by DOT, the Federal Highway Admin-istration (FHWA), the National Highway Traf-fic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and EPA.However, the essential features of this policy areembodied in the e ight major legisla tive actsdescribed below. Table 62, is a classification of this legislation according to the type of en-vironmental impact dealt with.

It will be noted that much of the legislation iso f r e ce n t or ig in . Mo s t of th e se l a ws we reenacted within the past decade, and half since1970. Most of the legislation deals with a speci-fic environmental problem (e.g., emissions,noise, social impacts of highways), with airquality being the predominant concern. Also,much of the present policy is regulatory innature and directed toward particular automo-bile performance characteristics.

The Clean Air Act of 1963 (Public Law88-206) provided for interstate conferences onabatement of air pollution and authorized theFederal Government, in some cases, to initiatesuits to force reduction of emissions. The Actalso designated three major areas of air pollu-

tion research: control of motor vehicle emis-sions, removal of sulfur from fuels, and devel-opment of air quality criteria. An amendment tothe Act (Title 11), passed in 1965, authorized theDepartment of Health, Education, and Welfare(HEW) to set emission standards for automo-biles beginning in the 1968 model year.

The Department of Transporta tion Act of 1966 (Public Law 89-670) stated that it was thenational policy to make a special effort to pre-serve “the naturaI beauty of the countryside andpublic parks and recreational lands, wildlife and

water-fowl refuges, and historic sites. ” The Actprov ided tha t t ranspor ta t ion p rograms andprojects involving the use of public land be ap-proved only if it was demonstrated that therewas “no feasible and prudent alternative to theuse of such land” and that such programs in-

clude “all possible planning to minimize harm”to natural, recreational, and historic sites.

The Air Quality Act of 1967 (Public Law90-148) attempted to remedy some of the defi-ciencies of the 1963 Clean Air Act by preempt-

ing States from setting emissions standards fornew motor vehicles unless they had done sobefore March 30, 1966. California was the onlyState to have imposed emissions standards bythis deadline. The Act, in effect, indicated theintent of the Federal Government to assume thelead in setting automobile emissions standards.

The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (Public Law 91-190) established a broadpolicy for environmental protection. NEPA setpolicies and goals concerning all aspects of theenvironment and required that specific Federal

policies, regulations, and programs be adminis-tered in accordance with these polic ies andgoals. NEPA also provided for the creation of the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)and the adoption of an interdisciplinary ap-proach in planning federally assisted highwayprojects. To do this, NEPA established provi-sions for environmental impact sta tements,public hearings on environmental impacts, andpreparation of environmental action plans.

The Highway Act of 1970 (23 U.S.C. 109)directed the Secretary of Transportation, in con-

sultation with EPA, to develop and put into ef-fect guidelines to assure consistency of high-ways with approved plans for implementationof ambient air quality standards. The Act alsoprovided for DOT to develop and promulgatestandards for highway noise levels compatiblewith different land uses and to withhold ap-proval of highway projects that do not includeadequate measures to comply with noise stand-ards.

The Clean Air Act of 1970 (Public Law91-614), technically amendments to the 1963

Clean Air Act, set standards for emissions of CO, HC, and NO X from new light-duty vehiclesat a level 90 percent below that of 1970 vehicles.The CO and HC standards (later determined ad-ministratively to be 3.4 grams per mile for COand 0.41 gram per mile for HC) were to be met

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Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies, and Findings . 151

Table 62.—Selected Laws Relating to Environmental Impacts of Automobiles and Highways

Type of impact controlledSystem

componentaffected Physical

al

Vehicles Highways

Clean Air Act of 1963 q q

Department of TransportationAct of 1966 q q q q

Air Quality Act of 1967 q q

National EnvironmentalPolicy Act of 1969 q q q q q q q q q

Highway Act of 1970 q q q

Clean Air Act of 1970 q q q o

Noise Control Act of 1972 q q

Clean Air Act of 1977 q q

q

aEcOn Oml~ ,mpact~ ,nclude those on employment bus[ness actlvlty residences, prOperty taxe S. regional ~ community growth and ‘esourcesbsoc(al ,mpact~ ,nclude those on commun(ty cohesion access(b(lity to facllltles and Services and displacement of Peo Ple

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by 1975. The NOX standard, to be met by 1976,was 0.4 gram per mile. The Act required thatthese standards be met over the useful life of themotor vehicle, defined as the first 50,000 milesor 5 years, whichever comes first. The Act au-thorized EPA to establish National Ambient AirQu a l i ty S ta n d a rd s (NAAQS ) 15 a n d A Q C R s .The Act required States to submit plans for at-taining NAAQS and authorized the imposition

of transportation control plans, if necessary, toa t t a in a i r q u a l i ty s t a n d a rd s fo r p a r t i c u la rAQCRs by the specified deadline. Title 11 of theAct provided for a fine of $10,000 per vehicle tobe levied against manufacturers marketingvehicles not certified as meeting standards.

The Noise Control Act of 1972 (Public Law92-754) provided EPA with authority to setcomprehensive standards and regulations forabatement and control of noise, including thatfrom automotive sources. While recognizing theprimary responsibil i t y of State and local gov-

ernments in noise control, the Act affirmed thatFederal Government action is essential to assurenational uniformity in dealing with major noisesources. States and localities retain rights andauthorities to determine the levels of noise per-mitted in their environments and to establishand enforce controls on noise through licensing,regulation, or restriction of noise sources. TheAct, however, authorizes EPA to establish noiseemission standards for products distributed ininterstate commerce and to set deadlines basedon the application of best available technology.The Act also foresees the need for Federal

assistance to State and local governments in en-forcement and research.

The Clean Air Act of 1977 (Public Law95-95), the most recent of a series of amend-ments to the 1970 Clean Air Act, establishedautomobile emission standards to be met in suc-cessive steps through 1981:

1977-79 1980 1981HC . . . . . . 1.5 gm / mi 0.41 gm/mi 0.41 gm/mico . . . . . . 15.0 gm/mi 7.0 gm / mi 3.4 gm/ mi

NO X . . . . . 2.0 gm / mi 2.0 gm / mi 1.0 gm / mi

The 1977 amendments also allowed a 2-yearwaiver of the 1981 CO and NO X s t a n d a r d s

‘SNAAQS have been established for five pollutants: particulatem at ter, sulfur dloxidel nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and

photochernical oxtdants,

under certain conditions and postponed imposi-tion of the 0.4-gram-per-mile standard for NO X

until further research is conducted. The 1977Act contained some provisions that indicate ashift from the policy of the 1970 Clean Air Act,such as permitting States to adopt the morestringent California standards if they desire,granting States explicit authority to adopt in-direct source control programs, requiring pro-

mulgation of an air quality standard for short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide, requestingEPA to report to Congress on the advantagesand disadvantages of a system of penalties forN OX emissions, and requiring EPA to set emis-sions standards for trucks, buses, and othervehicles over 6,000-pound gross weight manu-factured for use on public roads and streets.

From the foregoing summaries, it can be seenthat present environmental policy with respectto the automobile transportation system is of two basic types—statements of goals, princi-

ples, and guidelines (such as in NEPA), andspecific regulatory standards (as in the case of automobile emissions and noise). The regula-tory

q

q

q

•

policies have four basic features:

They are predicated on objective and quan-tified measures that are directly related topublic health.

They call for progressive a tta inment of goals by a series of deadlines.

They embody the concept of “technologyforcing. ”

The sanctions for noncompliance are set soas to remove any economic incentive fornot meeting the standards (i.e., the fine fornot complying is at least as great as the costof complying).

The present environmental protection poli-cies, especially automobile emissions standards,have met with several criticisms. The adequacyof the research on health effects and the benefitsascribed to specific reductions in pollution levelshave been challenged. lb The goals and deadlinesfor achieving air quality standards have been

“See, for example, American Petroleum Institute (footnote 9);and F. P. Grad, et al. , The Au tontob~lt~ arzd th~~ RegL//atIoH of Its

lmpuct (7/1 th~ Er~t~iro)~mL~//t ( N o r m a n , Okla.: U n i v e r s i t y o f Oklah(~ma Press, 1975), pp. 31-66.

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q To what extent should transportation usecontrols be applied to reduce the environ-mental impacts of the automobile?

q What criteria should be used to judge thevalue of environmental policies and pro-grams related to the automobile?

q

To what extent should factors other thanpublic health (e.g., community impacts,quality of life, and aesthetics) be consideredin setting environmental standards?

q What environmental problems should beconsidered in the evolution of new auto-motive technologies and at what point inthe development process should researchon environmental effects be started?

These issues have been examined in the auto-mobile assessment and used both to identifypotential impacts and to guide the formulationof policy alternatives relating to environmentalpro tection .25 The issues also provide a frame-work for evaluation of the policy alternativesthat are discussed later in this chapter.

POLICY ALTERNATIVES

The range of policy alternatives for dealingwith the environmental effects of automobiles is

shown on the relevance trees in chapter 4. Thesepolicies include new or more stringent standardsfor new vehicles, control of automobile use,alternatives to regulation, and encouragementof other more environmentally benign modes of personal transportation. Because the range of policy options is broad, not all could be exam-ined during the automobile assessment. Someselectivity was therefore required.

The two contractors supporting OTA weredirected to take different approaches to policyselection. SRI performed separate analyses of three individ ual policies. Sydec/ EEA examin eda group of policies, which had the collective in-tent of achieving major improvement in envi-ronmental quality beyond that projected for theBase Case. Thus, neither contractor attempted acomprehensive treatment of a ll possible en-vironmental policies. SRI concentrated on airquality as the most important concern, andexamined three different approaches to supple-ment present policy on automobile emissions.Sydec/ EEA formulated a coordinated set of policies aimed at general environmental im-provement, but consistent with other concerns

such as safety, mobility, energy, and cost.The policies studied by SRI were:

Mob ile-Stat io na ry So u rc e Tra d e o f fs .—Consideration of tradeoffs between auto-mobile emission standards and stationary

q

q

It

source controls as a more cost-effectivepreach to meeting air quality objectives;

ap -

Regionally Specific Standards.—Differen-tiation between the air pollution problemsof cities and rural areas by setting stand-ards for automobiles based on the air quali-ty in the region where the vehicle is ownedand operated (i.e., the two-car strategy);

Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance.—Adoption, at the State level, of a programfor periodic inspection and required main-tenance of vehicles in use to ensure thatthey continue to meet emission standardsfor new cars.

should be noted that these policies are notmutu ally exclusive, nor are they inconsistentwith the present policy governing the emissionscharacteristics of new cars. Any or all could becombined with the current provisions of theClean Air Act or with either tighter or morerelaxed versions of these standards.

The Sydec/ EEA p olicy set (called the Im-proved Environment Case) is made up of severalmeasures, which are of two types: major policyactions to reduce the negative environmental ef-fects of automobiles, and supporting measures

ZsFulIer discussion of the issues is contained in a series of wOrk-

ing papers prepared by the OTA staff, issues lrmolued in th e StudyOf Potential changes in th e Characteristics anci Use of the Auto-

rnobile Transportation System, OTA, Oct. 21, 1977.

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to increase the effectiveness of the major policyactions. (See table 63. )

Table 63.—Policies for Improved Environment Case

Major Policies

q

q

q

Mandatory inspection and maintenance ofvehicles in use.

More stringent NOX standard for new cars,Motor fuel tax to keep the cost of driving constant.Parking management ( includ ing zoning and restraints on use of land for parking lots).Restraints on automobile use in urban areas (except e/ectric vehicles).Improved transit.

Supporting Policies

Carpool and van pool incentives.q Transit incentives.. Incentives for use of electric vehicles in com-

mercial applications.. Bicycle incentives.q

Other transportation system management proj-ects.

The major policies assumed for the ImprovedEnvironment Case are:

Ž Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance. —A program of annual or semiannual inspec-tion of all cars on the road would be in-stituted with the cooperation of State andlocal governments. Vehicles failing to meet

standards would be required to have adjustment, repair, or replacement of emis-sion control devices. It is assumed that aprogram, wi th suff ic ien t fac i l i t ie s andtrained mechanics to inspect all vehiclessemiannually and to deal with an expected30-p ercen t fa ilu r e r at e, w o u ld b e im -plemented.

q More S tr ingen t NO X S t a n d a r d . — A N OX

emission standard of 0.4 gram per milewould be imposed on all new vehicles (in-cluding light trucks, vans, and diesels) in1990. If diesels were unable to meet this

standard, they could not be sold as passen-ger or light-duty vehicles,

q Motor Fuel Tax. —To offset the decline inreal fuel cost per mile as the result of fueleconomy improvements, Federal motor

fuel taxes would be increased periodicall y

to hold the cost per mile constant at the1975 level. This would tend to discouragein c re a se d a u to u se a n d th e a t t e n d a n tgrowth in emissions.

Parking Management.—Local and regionalauthorities would be encouraged (or in ex-treme cases, required) to restrict or elimi-

nate parking in congested areas by meansof such measures as parking surcharges,elimination of on-street parking, bans onparking for nonresidents, and l imits onconstruction of new parking lots.

Restraints on Automobile Use.—Local andregional authorities would be encouragedto limit the use of automobiles in congestedareas. Possible restrictions that might beimposed are auto-free zones, restricted ac-cess by time of day or type of vehicle, andlimitation of commuter traffic (either by

tax or outright prohibition) except for car-pools and vanpools. Electric vehicles wouldbe exempt from these conditions.

Improved Transit .—To provide a usefulalternative means of personal transporta-tion and to compensate for the restrictionson automobile use, public transit facilitieswould have to be expanded or improved. Itis assumed that Federal Government fund-ing of capital improvements would increase15 percent per year from 1975 to 1985 (inconstant 1975 dollars) and that the 1985level of funding (also in constant dollars)would be maintained through 2000. Federalsubsidy of mass transit operations wouldalso be increased. In the first year, fundingwould double . Thereafter, i t would in-crease at 15 percent annually through 1985

and then remain at the 1985 level until 2000

(all in constant 1975 dollars).

Noise Standards.—It is assumed that noisestandards for all new motor vehicles (medi-um and heavy trucks, buses, and motor-cycles as well as passenger cars, vans, andlight-duty trucks) will be in force by 1985.

In areas of particularly high or objec-tionable noise, additional measures wouldbe imposed either to control motor vehicleuse or to provide sound insulation for un-usually sensitive buildings (e. g., hospitalsor schools) or for severely affected areas.

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q Supporting Polic ies.—In addition to themajor policies above, certain supportingmeasures would be required. It is assumedthat the Federal Government would adoptpolicies to provide incentives for carpools,vanpools, mass transit, and bicycle use asalternatives to the single-occupancy auto-mobile. Incentives would also be offeredfor commercial and personal use of electricvehicles, principally in congested areas.

The rationale of this policy set is to foster a sub-stantial improvement in environmental quality,but without major adverse impacts in the areaso f e n erg y, sa fe ty , mo b i l ity , an d c o s t . Ac -cordingly, certain additional assumptions andconditions were made in constructing the Im-proved Environment Case. These assumptionsand conditions are summarized in table 64 anddescribed briefly below.

Total expenditures for highways are as-sumed to remain constant in real dollars atthe 1975 level. The distribution of Federalhighway funding is assumed to change sothat capital expenditures decrease at therate of 1 percent per year, while mainte-nance expenditures increase at a corres-ponding rate. (This is the same assumptionas in the Base Case. )

It is assumed that a separate transportationsystem management program is established

and funded at the level of $2OO million peryear (in constant 1975 dollars). The empha-sis of this program would be on projects de-signed to serve high-occupancy vehicles,thereby reducing emissions per passengermile.

q L e v e l I c ra sh wo r th in e ss s t a n d a rd s a n dmandatory installation of air bags (or their

equivalent) are assumed to be in effect by1980. The mandatory inspection and main-t e na n ce p ro g ra m fo r e mission s c on t rolwould include inspection of critical safety-related equipment as -well.

It is assumed that the technology to meetautomobile emissions and noise standardsis available, or will be at the time the stand-ards go into force. Specifically:

—N OX emission levels of 0.4 gram per milewil l be a t ta inab le fo r spark- ign i t ionengines by 1990.

—Diesels will be able to meet the standardof 1.0 gram per mile for NO X by 1981 .

They may not be able to meet the 1990

standard of 0.4 gram per mile. (The in-fluence of NOX standards on diesel pene-tration is discussed later in the analysisof effects and impacts. )

—Automobile noise levels can be reducedto 65 dB(A) during acceleration and 60dB(A) for cruise.

EFFECTS

The primary objective of the policies studiedin the Improved Environment Case is to bringabout an improvement in air quality throughreduction of automobile emissions. Other en-vironmental concerns—such as noise and com-munity disruption by highways—are also ad-dressed, but only as secondary objectives. Theheavy emphasis on polic ies to control auto

emissions stemmed from analysis of Base Caseprojections. These showed that the dominantadverse impact of automobile characteristicsand use in 1985 and 2000 would be on air quali-ty, particularly in urban areas where automo-bile use is concentrated.

Air Quality

The Improved Environment Case containsthree kinds of policies to reduce automobileemissions:

1. Policies to reduce auto travel,

2. A stricter NOX emission standard for new

cars, and3. Mandatory inspection and maintenance of

automobiles in use.

Figure 30 shows the combined effect of thesepolicies on automobile emissions of CO, HC,

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Ch. 6—Environment issues, Policies, and Findings q157

Table 64.—Assumptions and Conditions for Improved Environment Case

Assumptions Base Case Improved Environment

Transportation systemHighway

Total expenditures

Construction

Maintenance

Transportationsystem management

Mass transportationCapital improvements

Operations

Stable at 1975 level (in constantdollars).

Decreases from 50°/0 of totalhighway expenditures in 1975to 25°A in 2000.

Increases from 50°/0 of totalhighway expenditures in 1975to 75°/0 in 2000.

Existing policies, no specialfunding.

Funding increased 10% per year(constant dollars) through 1985and maintained at 1985 levelthrough 2000.

Funding increased 10%A per year(constant dollars) through 1985and maintained at 1985 levelthrough 2000.

EnvironmentAir qualityVehicle emissions

Inspection andmaintenance

Transportationcontrols

NoiseVehicles

Noise abatement

Same as Base Case

Same as Base Case.

Same as Base Case.

Separate program, funded at$200 million per year.

Funding increased 15% peryear (constant dollars, through1985 and maintained at 1985level through 2000.

Funding doubled initially andthen increased at 15% per year(constant dollars) through 1985and maintained at 1985 levelthrough 2000.

1977 Clean Air Act standards CO and HC same as Base Case,met, waiver for diesel NO, at Nonstandard tightened to 0.41.5 gpm for 1981-83. gpm, no diesel waiver, two-car

strategy (electric cars).No mandatory program. Mandatory program by 1985.

Negligible. Parking and auto use restraints.

Noise standards for trucks, Noise standards for all vehicles.buses, and motorcycles.

Continuation of existing policies. Continuation of existing policies.plus funding for soundproofing buildings.

EnergyFuel economy Case A: 27.5 mpg. Same as Base Case.

Case B: 30 mpg by 1990,35 mpgby 2000.

Highway speed Moderate Enforcement (present Same as Base Case.averaqe of 62 mph).

SafetyOccupant restraint Airbags or equivalent on new Same as Base Case.

vehicles as now scheduled.Crashworthiness Existing standards. Level I.

TaxesFuel taxes Fuel taxes increased to Fuel taxes adjusted to hold

maintain revenue at 1975 level. cost per mile constant.Vehicle taxes No new taxes. Gas-guzzler tax on new cars.

TechnologyPropulsion Case A: 100/~ diesels by 1985, Same as Base Case A, except

250/o by 2000. diesels phased out after 1990Case B: 15°/0 diesels by 1985, unless 0.4 gpm NOX standard

40% by 2000. can be met.Diesel fuel consumption Case A: 4% by 1985, 18% by Same as Base Case A, except

(percent of all motor fuel) 2000. accelerated penetration ofCase B: 6% by 1985, 29% by electric vehicles.

2000.

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and NOX in 1985 and 2000. The greatest benefitis reduction of CO emissions which, by 2000,are expected to decline to about one-third of what they would be under Base Case conditions.The reductions of HC and NOX emissions, whilenot as great as CO, are also significant.

A more detailed picture of the effects ispresented in table 65, which shows quantitativeestimates of automobile emissions in compari-son with 1975 levels and projected Base Caselevels in 1985 and 2000. Compared to 1975, allautomobile emissions in 2000 would be greatly

reduced. The national aggregate of CO emis-sions from automobiles is expected to fall to 9.7million tons in 2000 (14 percent of the 1975level). Hydrocarbons are projected to decline to1.8 million tons (23 percent of 1975). The cor-responding reductions for other pollutants are:N OX, 52 percent of 1975; and particulate, 12percent. The projected effects of present policies(the Base Case) are also given in table 65. By

comparison, the package of improved environ-ment policies would be considerably more effec-tive in reducing air pollution from automobiles.

Figure 30.—Comparison of Automobile Emissions, Base Case vs. Improved Environment Case

2000

1985

1975 ] 1


Base Case

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Million tons

2000

1985

1975

2 4 6 8 10 1 2 3 4 5

Million tons Million tons

SOURCE: Sydec/EEA, p V-33 and Supplementary Report

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Ch. 6—Environment Issues, Policies j and Findings q 159

Table 65.—Projected Automobile Emissions for the Improved Environment Case(million tons per year)

Pollutant 1975

Carbon monoxide. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.3Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9Nitrogen oxides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0Total suspended particulatesb . . 0.377

1985 2000

Base Improved Percent Base Improved PercentCase Environment change Case Environment change

32.6 21.4 –34 27.3 9.7 –643.5 3.1 – 11 2.9 1.8 – 402.7 2.6 – 4 2.9 2.1 –280.077 0.094 + 22 0.250 0.044 –82

Effects of Individual Policies

Table 66 shows the contributions of individ-ual policies to the overall decrease in CO, HC,and NOX emissions. Policies to reduce automo-bile travel—increased gasoline taxes, automo-bile disincentives, and transit improvements—are expected to have small, but beneficial, ef-fects for all types of pollutants. The assumed taxon gasoline, designed to keep the fuel cost per

mile constant through 2000, is expected toreduce auto VMT by 0.8 percent from 1985 BaseCase VMT and 0.4 percent from 2000 Base CaseVMT, Auto disincentives and transit improve-ments would create further VMT reductions of 1percent in 1985 and 3 percent in 2000. Unlike thegasoline tax, which would affect rural and ur-ban travel equally, the effects of auto disincen-tives and transit improvements would be con-centrated in urban areas, primarily for journey-to-work trips. As a result, urban VMT underthese policies would be down 2 percent from theBase Case in 1985 and 6 percent in 2000. As a

whole, the effects of policies to reduce VMT willaccount for between 5 and 20 percent of thetotal decrease in CO, HC, and NO X e x p e c t e dfrom Improved Environment policies.

The second major feature of the Improved En-

vironment Case is lowering the NO X s t a n d a rdfor new automobiles from 1.0 to 0.4 gram permile beginning in the 1990 model year. The needfor t ightening the automobile NO X s t a n d a r dstems from two considerations. First, projec-tions of atmospheric pollution under Base Caseconditions show that NOX emissions will be themajor a ir quali ty problem in coming years.Unless more stringent measures are adopted to

con tro l NO X emissions from all sources, airquality in many urban areas in 1985 and 2000may be worse than today. Second, the mostserious aspect of the NOX problem is likely to behow to control peak concentrations, whichoften coincide with rush-hour automobile traf-fic. Thus, a more stringent standard for NO X inautomobile exhaust becomes a particularly im-portant control strategy.

From table 66 it can be seen that lowering thenew car emission standard for NO X to 0.4 gram

per mile has the potential of reducing the na-tional aggregate of NO X emissions by 690,000tons per year by 2000. This represents nearly 80percent of the total reduction of NOX from auto-mobiles projected under Improved Environmentpolicies.

Table 66.—Analysis of Effects of Improved Environment Policies

Change from Base Case year 2000 (million tons)Carbon Hydro- Nitrogen

Contributing factor monoxide carbons oxides Particulate

Decreased auto travel . . . . . - 0 . 8 4 0 -0.164 -0.190 – 0.007Stricter NO, standard . . . . . — + 0.098 – 0.690 – 0.199Inspection and maintenance – 16.730 – 1.040 — —

Net. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 17.570 – 1.106 – 0.880 – 0.206

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, supplementary report

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However, this potential benefit would entailcertain penalties. First, the lower 0.4-gram-per-mile standard probably could not be met bydiesel engines, which currently emit 2 grams permile or more of NOX. By 1990, the level of NOX

emissions from diesels might be reduced to 1gram per mile, but probably not much lowerunless there is a major technological break-through. For the Improved Environment Case,

no such breakthrough in diesel technology hasbeen assumed. As a result, the immediate conse-quence of a 0.4-gram-per-mile NO X s t a n d a rdwould be preclusion of diesels from the new carmarket after 1990.

This, in turn, would lead to a greater propor-tion of cars powered by conventional Otto-cycleengines in the new car fleet from 1990 to 2000.Such automobiles emit more hydrocarbons andlead per mile than diesels. The projectionsshown in table 66 indicate that the tightening of the NOX standard for new cars could result in a

nationwide increase of about 98,000 tons peryear of hydrocarbons, in comparison with thelevel of this pollutant expected under Base Caseconditions. The consequences are not so impor-tant since the increase stemming from the lowerN OX standard is far outweighed by reductionsin HC emissions brought about by other Im-proved Environment policies.

The new policy which has the greatest net airquality benefits in the Improved EnvironmentCase is the nationwide program of mandatoryinspection and maintenance for all automobilesin use. The analysis of this policy assumes that,starting in 1985, all States implement programsrequiring annual or semiannual inspection of allregistered automobiles. Owners whose vehiclesfailed inspection would be obliged to have thenecessary repairs or adjustments made beforebeing allowed to continue operating the vehicle,which is similar to a provision now employed inmotor vehicle safety inspection programs inmany States.

The program could be administered and im-

plemented either by State-run inspection centersor by licensing private service stations andgarages as inspection facilities. Inspection stand-ards could be set either nationwide through ad-ministrative action by EPA or by the States in-dividually in accordance with Federal guide-

lines. It has been assumed that standards wouldbe set for each model year and that they wouldvary with the age of the vehicle. Generally, thestandards would be set at levels such that ap-proximately 30 percent of the vehicles in eachmodel year would fail and be required to havemaintenance performed. For further discussionof the administration of a mandatory inspectionand maintenance program, see the final section

of this chapter.

The inspection procedure i tse lf would belimited to tests of CO and HC exhaust emis-sions. At present, there are no test proceduresfor NOX emissions and evaporative HC losses ingeneral use. While some benefits in terms of r e d u c e d N O X and evaporative HC emissionsmight reasonably be expected from the adjust-ments and tuneups required under this program,none have been assumed in the analysis of thispolicy. Therefore, the projected effects of the in-

spection and maintenance program include onlythe potential reductions in CO and HC fromautomobile exhaust.

It is projected that mandatory inspection andmaintenance would reduce CO emissions byalmost 17 million tons per year for the countryas a whole in 2000. This amounts to 95 percentof the total reduction of CO from automobilesexpected under Improved Environment policies.The reduction of HC is equally substantial—slightly over 1 million tons per year in 2000, oralmost 95 percent of the total reduction pro-

jected for all Improved Environment policiescombined. (See table 66. )

Mandatory inspection and maintenance thusappears to have great potential as a means toreduce automobile emissions. However, a wordof caution is needed about the magnitude of theprojected effects. The benefits of inspection andmaintenance depend heavily on estimates of, thedeterioration rates of emission control devices—oxidation catalysts and three-way catalytic con-verters. These devices have been in use for onlya short time, and the data on their continued ef-fectiveness over 50,000 or 100,000 miles of ac-tual driving are limited. Estimates made by EPAduring the period 1975-77 indicated that the per-formance of emission control devices was rela-tively stable over time and that they would re-

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ta in about ha l f the i r in i t ia l e f fec t ivenessthroughout 10 years of use on the road. 26

Data from more recent tests by EPA indicatethat emission control devices have much morerapid rates of deterioration than originally ex-pected. For example, CO emissions from a vehi-cle certified as meeting a standard of 3.4 gramsper mile when new are now estimated to in-

crease to 10 grams per mile after 5 years (50,000miles) and 22 grams per mile after 10 years(100,000 miles). Similar sixfold to eightfold in-creases are estimated for HC and NOX emissionsfrom automobiles after 10 years on the roadwithout maintenance or repair of the emissioncontrol system .27

Thus, the benefits of inspection and mainte-nance are proportional to the assumed deter-ioration rates of emission control devices. Themore rapid the deterioration rate, the greaterthe benefits of periodic adjustment and repair.The analysis presented here is based upon themost recent EPA data. If the EPA estimates areaccurate, the benefits of mandatory inspectionand maintenance would be very great. If, how-ever, the EPA estimates are overly pessimisticand emission control devices do not lose theireffectiveness as rapidly as now believed, thebenefits of inspection and maintenance wouldbe lessened accordingly, a lthough they sti l lmight be large enough to warrant imposition of a mandatory inspection and maintenance pro-gram. A full assessment of this policy mustawait more definit ive information about the

continued effectiveness of emission controldevices under actual driving conditions.

Overall Air Quality

To appreciate the effects of policies to reduceautomobile emissions, it is necessary to considerthe future magnitude of air pollution from allsources. Figure 31 shows estimates of the na-tional aggregates of emissions from all sourcesin 1985 an d 2000, divided into three classes:automobiles, other mobile sources, and station-ary sources.

On the whole, atmospheric pollution is ex-pected to remain high. The levels of CO and HC

“U S. Envlronrnental Protec t ion A g e n c y , Compllut~on of A~rf,)llut[~~~t Em15sIorz Factors, Part A,2-EPA memorandum on revised m[>bile source emission factors,

dated ]anuary 1978, incorporated in the revised edition of Com-/JlhfIO)l O( A Ir po~~ufanf ~tHlSSl(3t7 ~acf(>rs, AP-42.

will be down somewhat from 1975, but NO X

emissions are expected to continue rising. In allcases, however, the levels of emissions are projected to be lower than in the Base Case becauseof measures to control automobile emissions.The most substantia l improvement is in COemissions, which by 2000 will be down 27 per-cent because of a 64-percent reduction in auto-mobile emissions. The effects of policies to con-

trol HC and NO X in automotive exhaust willhave a relatively smaller payoff since the auto-mobile is expected to be only a minor source of HC and NO, in comparison with sta tionarysources.

While automobile exhaust will make up adeclining share of tota l emissions, the im-portance of continuing efforts to control auto-motive sources of pollution can be seen byexamining the projections of urban air qualityfor 1985 and 2000. Table 67 shows that a signifi-cant decline in violations of the carbon monox-

ide standard can be expected in both 1985 and2000 as a result of auto emission controls. In2000, for instance, the total number of COstandard violations would fall from 24 u n d e rBase Case policies to 7 under Improved Envi-ronment policies. On the other hand, violationsof the oxidant standard would remain high,largely because of stationary source emissions.Measures to control automobile HC and NO X

emissions would have a relatively minor effecton the production of photochemical oxidants.

Figure 32 translates the 1985 and 2000 air

quality projections into estimates of the popula-tion exposed to hazardous concentrations of cri-teria pollutants, The difference between the BaseCase-and Improved Environment policies forCO is quite large, especially by 2000, and illus-trates again the-value of controlling automobileemissions of CO.

The number of people exposed to oxidantconcentrations higher than the national stand-ard is expected to be essentially the same for theBase Case and Improved Environment policiesin 1985. By 2000, however, small improvements

are expected as a result of automobile emissionscontrols. The total number of people exposed tooxidant standard violations will remain aboutthe same, but the number exposed to extremeviolations (greater than 320 micrograms in a 1-hour period, i.e., twice the national standard)

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Figure 31 .—Projected Emissions from All Sources, 197 S-2000 Improved Environment Policies

2000

1985

1975

2000

1985

1975

10 20 30

Nitrogen oxides (million tons)

2000

1985

1975

10 20 30

Sources

,,, , , .

Other mobile

.: 1 Reduction from Base Case.. : auto emissions. . . . . . .

SOURCE: .Sydec/EEA, p, V-33 and Supplementary Report

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Figure 32.— Population Exposed to A

12

10

8

6

4

2

I

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

I I I I I I I i

Pollution,

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

Improved Environment Case

I

i.

1 I

10 14 18 22 26 10 14 18 22 26

1985

120

100

80

60

40

20

160 32 0 480 64 0 80 0 160 320 480 640 800

WHO b

.

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

190 310 430 550 770

Nitrogen dioxide (micrograms per cubic

190 310 430 550 770

meter, l-hour period)

Base Case

1977

SOURCE Sydec EEA, pp V-36-38

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Table 67.—Projected Violations of Air Quality Standards, Improved Environment Case

1985 2000

Improved ImprovedPollutant 1975 Base Case Environment Base Case Environment

Carbon monoxideNumber of AQCRsa exceedingstandard b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 34 22 22 7

Number of AQCRs exceeding2X standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 2 2 0

Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . 68 37 24 24 7

OxidantsNumber of AQCRs exceedingstandard c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 46 45 41 40




Total violations . . . . . . . . . . . 84 62 60 54 51

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p V.40.

will be lower under Improved Environment maximum possible controls, violations will per-policies. Thus, policies to control automobile sist, Realistically, some cities may never be ableemissions, while having only a slight effect on to meet the National Ambient Air Qualitythe national aggregate of HC and NO X, can be Standards.expected to have an important benefit in popu-lous areas, where automobile use is concen-

Other Environmental Effectstrated.

Figure 32 also shows estimates of exposure tonitrogen dioxide in relation to two standardsthat have been suggested for maximum l-hourconcentrations by the World Health Organiza-tion. The picture for nitrogen dioxide is similarto that for photochemical oxidants. The smalloverall reductions in NO X emissions due toautomobile emission controls would have dis-proportionately large benefits in urban areas.The general effect of measures to reduce auto-mobile emissions is to help lessen both themagnitude and frequency of peak concentra-tions.

A major finding from these projections is that

attainment of air quality standards nationwidewill require more than automobile controls.Emissions from other mobile sources and sta-tionary sources also must be reduced. Even so,the concentration of automobiles, trucks, andindustry may remain so high that, even with the

The set of policies examined in the ImprovedEnvironment Case included measures aimed at

lessening the adverse effects of the automobileon other aspects of the environment—noise ,solid waste disposal, water quality, and com-munity disruption. Quantitative projections of these effects were not made. What follows,therefore, are general estimates of the natureand direction of environmental effects expectedunder these policies.

Noise

Automobile noise is expected to be somewhatless in the Improved Environment Case than in

the Base Case because of reduced auto VMTand, in 2000, because of fewer diesels on theroad. Greater reduction would be possible if noise standards were imposed for new cars or if there were vehicle-in-use noise standards requir-ing every automobile to have a properly main-

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ta ined muffler. I t is not foreseen that auto-mobile noise will become so great as to warrantsuch measures, except perhaps on a selective,

local basis.

R e d u c t i o n o f h i g h w a y n o i s e c o u l d b eachieved by improved roadway and tire design,although there would be some safety penalty inthe form of reduced skid resistance. Highwaynoise could also be reduced by erection of soundbarriers to screen residences, businesses, and in-s t i tu t io n s f ro m h ig h wa y s . However, sincetrucks and buses will continue to be the noisierelements of the traffic stream, exclusion of trucks and buses from noise-sensitive areas maybe the more effective noise reduction measure.

Solid Waste

The amount of solid waste from automobilesis a function of the vehicle retirement rate,scrappage and materials recycling practices, andthe amount of component replacement during

the lifetime of the vehicle. Greater durability of new cars and a requirement that some percent-age of every new vehicle be easily recoverable

could greatly decrease present levels of wastefrom automobiles.

Methods to increase vehicle durability includedesign for longer overall vehicle life, use of lesscorrosive and more durable materials, and em-phasis on repair ra ther than replacement of components. A vehicle with an engine life ex-pectancy of 200,000 miles would be of little useif the body were designed to last only 50,000

miles. Conversely, a very durable body wouldhave very little benefit if the expected engine lifewere only 50,000 miles. A long-life body and

engine would also be useless in a vehicle thatwould require intricate and costly repairs orreplacements to keep the durable componentsoperating properly. Thus, the essential for in-creasing average fleet life is a combination of abody built of durable, corrosion-resistant mate-

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rial, a long-lasting engine, and vehicle systemsand components that can be repaired easily.

A second way to reduce automobile wastewould be to encourage recycling of componentsand materials. Batteries and tires are both com-monly recovered from scrapped vehicles. Manyauto hulls are processed for their scrap metalvalue. However, much of the plastic and in-terior materials is discarded. Present techniquesfor recovery of metals use large shredders andseparators, which can operate economically on-ly in urban areas where there is a large volumeof junk cars from which to recover metals andcomponents. Vehicles retired in less populousareas are often not processed for scrap since thecost of delivering them to a metal recovery plantexceeds their salvage value.

A t p resen t , th ere a re n o Fe d e ra l p o li ci esdirected at promoting recycling of automobilemateria ls. Among the polic ies that could beadopted are a requirement that new cars be de-

signed such that some percentage of the compo-nent materials can be recovered at a reasonablecost or a policy adding a deposit to the cost of anew car thatis recycled.

Energy

The chief

can be returned only if the vehicle

Water Quality

Water quality impacts of highway construc-tion and use will be approximately the sameunder Improved Environment policies as in theBase Case since both have identical assumptionsabout the level of Federal funding for highwaysand the allocation of funds between construc-tion and maintenance.

Community Disruption

Because capital expenditures for highwaysassumed for the Improved Environment Caseare the same as for the Base Case, the projectednumber of highway-rela ted displacements isidentical. It is expected that the average annualnumber of displacements will be about half those experienced in the 1971-75 period, totalingabout 7,700 in 1985 and 6,200 in 2000.

As in the Base Case, it is projected that high-way construction will be concentrated in the

outlying suburban and rural communities wherethe potential for disruption of community cohe-sion is somewhat less than in the central cities.Therefore, these social effects are expected to

energy impact of Improved Envi-

decline over the remainder of the century.

IMPACTS

ronment policies would be a reduction in auto-mobile fuel consumption, amounting to 4 per-cent less than the Base Case level in 1985 and 10percent less in 2000. These reductions would bebrought about primarily by the expected reduc-tions in auto VMT and, in 2000, by the growinguse of electric vehicles. Table 68 summarizesautomobile fuel consumption impacts projectedunder Improved Environment policies.

The projected decline in automobile VMT ispartially the result of the motor fuel tax de-

signed to make fuel cost per mile constantthrough 2000 and partially the result of urbantraffic restrictions imposed for environmentalreasons. The combined impact of these policieswould be to lower the annual consumption of motor fuels by slightly more than 6 bi l l ion

gallons (0.4 MMBD) by 2000—a reduction of about 10 percent from Base Case levels.

Because of the 0.4-gram-per-mile NO X s tand-ard, diesel sales will be restricted after 1990, andthe diesel fuel consumption by the auto fleet as awhole would begin to decline sharply. By 2000,diesel fuel consumption is expected to be only 2percent of that forecast under Base Case condi-tions. Sales of gasoline-powered automobilesare assumed to expand after 1990 to satisfy theadditional demand created by the phase: out of diesels. Accordingly, gasoline consumption isexpected to be 27 percent higher than Base Caselevels in 2000. Another impact of this shift backto gasoline-powered automobiles is expected to

be increased pressure on the automobile indus-try to improve the fuel-economy of convention-ally powered vehicles as a compensation for thephase-out of the more energy-efficient diesels.

The growing use of electric vehicles by 2000

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Table 68.—Automobile Energy Demand, Improved Environment Case

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . .Diesel penetration (percent

of new car sales) . . . . . . . . . . . .New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation— EPA certification

value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Attained— EPA certificationvalue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . .Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained— EPA certificationvalue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . .Annual fleet fuel consumption

Billions of gallons. . . . . . . . . . .MMBD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of domestic

consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Actual1975

1.03

(c)

None15.614.0

15.113.6

76.05.0

30.6

Base Casea

1985

1.43

10

27.5

28.523.2

24.019.4

73.94.8

23.9

SOURCE Svdecl EEA

would improve fleet fuel economy and help off-set some of the adverse impacts of phasing outdiesels. By the end of the century, it is estimatedthat electric vehicles will travel about 85 billionmiles annually, resulting in net fuel savings of about 0.2 MMBD. Since electric vehicle use isexpected to be concentrated in urban areas,there could also be secondary benefits in the

form of small decreases in CO, HC, and NO X

emissions,

Safety

There is little safety benefit expected from Im-proved Environment policies per se, except forth e min o r d e c re a se in a u to mo b i le c ra sh e sbrought about by the reduction in VMT. Thedecreases in death, injury, and property damagethat are forecast for the Improved EnvironmentCase ensue from other, safety-specific policies

that have been incorporated into this policy set.Chief among these are Level I crashworthiness,passive restraints, and mandatory periodic safe-ty inspections carried out in conjunction withthe nationwide program of inspection andmaintenance of emission control equipment.

20001.80

25

27.5

29.425.0

28.524.6

73.34.8

21.4

Improved Environment1985

1.40

10

27.5

30.424.6

24.319.8

70.74.6

23.1

20001 .74

b

(c)

40.0

40.034.0

33.428.3

58.33.8

17.8

The introduction of passive restra ints andLevel I crashworthiness is expected to reducefatalities and injuries by about 11 percent fromBase Case levels in 1985, when about one-quar-ter of the fleet will be so equipped. In 2000, vehi-cle occupant fatalities and injuries would beabout 20 percent below projected Base Caselevels.

The inspec t ion o f sa fe ty fea tu res tha t i sassumed to accompany the periodic check of emission control devices is projected to bringabout a reduction of 4 to 5 percent in trafficcrashes by 2000. The reduction of death and injury may be somewhat greater because thecrashes that occur because of failure of safetyequipment tend to be more severe than crashesproduced by other causes.

Figure 33 shows the expected safety benefitsthat result from the combination of Level Icrashworthiness and periodic safety inspections.

Mobility

A major emphasis of the Improved Environ-ment policies is reduction in automobile use for

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Figure 33.—Auto Occupant Fatal and Injury Crashes and Auto PropertyDamage Crashes, Improved Environment Case

a

(thousands)

Total crashes Total crashes Total crashes5,116 5,660 6,378

(5,967) (6,788)

4,$57

1975 1985 2000

Auto occupant fatal crashes‘For comparison, Base Case projections are shown in parentheses.

n Auto occupant nonfatal injury crashes

u. . .. . . . . .

Auto property damage only crashes. . . . . .. . . . . .

SOURCE: Sydec EEA, p V-57

work travel in major urban areas as a means toimprove air quality. Specifically, the followingtarget levels were established for SMSAs withpopulations over 1 million:

Ž For those large SMSAs with relatively goodtransit service, automobile VMT by com-muters would be reduced by 10 percent by1985 an d 25 percent by 2000.

q For those large SMSAs with relatively poortransit service, automobilemuters would be reduced2000.

If these targets were attained,

VMT by com-10 percent by

the nationwide

reduction in VMT would be 57year by 2000, or 6 percent of VMT in the Base Case.

billion miles perthe total urban

A pure transit incentive strategy, a strategy of improving transit services and decreasing transitfares without pric ing or regulatory actionsdirected against auto use, would not achieve theta rge t reduc t ions o f au tomobi le VMT. Thep r o b l e m i n u s i n g t r a n s i t i n c e n t i v e s b y

themselves to a ttempt to bring about largereductions in automobile VMT is that, even inlarge SMSAs with relatively good transit ser-vice, the proportion of home-to-work trips thatcan be made conveniently by conventional tran-sit is less than 50 percent. Even in large SMSAs,

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more than half thewhere conventionalpoor, such that less

jobs are located in areastransit service is relativelythan 1 employee in 10 cur-

rently uses mass transit to get to work. Thus,car poolin g, van poolin g, p a r a t r a n s i t , a n dtransportation system management strategieswould have to play a major role in achievinglarge decreases in automobile VMT.

G i v e n that transit incentives a I o n e w i l l n o tproduce the desired decreases in auto com-muting, it will be necessary to apply other ac-tions to increase the cost of “drive alone” com-muting relative to other modes.

A study of travel changes that could bebrought about by various policies applied in theWashington, D. C., metropolitan area con-cluded that the areawide application of a $3-per-day parking surcharge would produce an 11-percent decrease in auto trips to work. ” Thisprice increase would bring about roughly half

the decrease in VMT in large urban areas soughtby the Improved Environment policies.

Approximately half of the desired decrease in“drive alone” commuting could also be achievedby imposing a $6-per-day charge for all long-t er m p a r kin g in d o w n t ow n a r ea s o f l ar g eSMSAs. However, a potentially serious long-run impact of such severe parking fees is thatmany businesses would relocate to areas not af-fected. This could have longrun counter-pro-ductive effects on transit and on the envi-ronmental goal of VMT reduction.

Alternatively, reductions in automobile VMTcould be achieved by actions that decrease thetravel time by carpooling or transit relative tothat required for “drive a lone” commuting.Such decreases could be provided through theinstitution of exclusive or priority lanes, trafficsignalization, and transporta tion system man-agement procedures that give special prioritiesto buses and carpools. If transit or carpooltravel times were reduced by an average of 4minutes per one-way trip compared to “drivealone” commuting, it is estimated that “drivealone” auto commuting would be reduced byabout 5 percent.

zau s Department o f TranSpOrtat ion, Federa I H i~hwa]’ Adrn in -.istration, Applications for Neu’ Trat ~<l Den~an~f Forecasting TLIclI -~zzques to Transportation fla~z~?lng hlarch ] Q77

41 .117 I (1 - ‘i I - 12

Opportunities exist in most large metropoli-tan areas for providing priority lanes withoutcausing large decreases in speed on parallellanes. However, to achieve the carpool or tran-sit time reduction of 4 minutes per one-way tripfor the metropolitan area as a whole, it wouldbe necessary to reduce the nonpriority capacityon many already con gested streets an d

highways. In such circumstances, most of therelative travel time gain for carpools and transitwould come about through increased congestionfor auto commuters. Aside from causing strongresentment among auto commuters, this effectwould also be counterproductive from an en-vironmental point of view. Idling automobilesemit more pollutants per hour of operation—and in more densely concentrated pockets—than automobiles in smoothly flowing traffic.

Additional disincentives for “drive a lone”commuting could be achieved by providing

premium parking locations for carpools. Timespent walking to or from an automobile is con-siderably more onerous than in-vehicle traveltime, such that drivers would spend an addi-tional 3 to 5 minutes of in-vehicle travel time toreduce their walk time by 1 minute. If premiumparking locations were provided for carpools,such that an average metropolitan areawidereduction of 1 minute in walking time wouldresult , an additional 5-percent reduction in“drive alone” commuting might be expected.

The three actions discussed above—increas-

ing the cost of “drive alone” commuting, reduc-ing carpool and vanpool travel time by an aver-age of 4 minutes, and providing preferentialparking for carpools—could produce the targetreductions in VMT sought in the Improved En-vironment Case.

One possible consequence of such transit andridesharing promotion programs that has notbeen adequately evaluated is that additionaltrips might be made by other household mem-bers in the car left at home. To some extent,these trips might defeat the purpose of measures

to discourage “drive a lone” commuting bymerely substi tuting one automobile tr ip foranother. However, such trips would probablynot be to congested downtown areas duringrush hours. It is the use of automobiles in heavi-ly traveled corridors at peak periods that creates

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170 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics ot the Automobile Transportation System

much of the air pollution problem; transit andridesharing incentives seek to reduce these typesof trips. Presumably, much of the travel in-duced by the availability of automobiles thatwould otherwise be used for commuting wouldoccur at times and places that would not con-tribute significantly to air pollution.

The Washington, D. C., mode split model was

used to estimate the impacts of decreased com-muting by auto on transit ridership. About 30percent of the decrease in auto commutingwould occur through diversion to transit whilethe remaining 70 percent would occur throughtransportation system management actions toincrease carpooling and paratransit usage. Theeffect of this diversion to transit, together withthe effect of increasing transit vehicle miles,would be to increase total transit ridership from5.6 billion revenue passengers in 1975 to 7.1

billion in 1985 an d 8.7 billion in 2000. Transitridership under Improved Environment policies

would thus be 35 percent higher in 2000 t h a nunder the Base Case.

Cost and Capital

Under Improved Environment policies, gaso-line prices (including tax) would be 89.9 centsper gallon in 1985 an d 123.5 cents per gallon in2000. This represents increases of 12.2 cents and1.7 cents per gallon, respectively, over BaseCase prices. On a per-mile basis, this amountsto increased fuel costs of 0.3 to 0.5 cent com-pared to the Base Case in 1985. For 2000, thedifference between fuel cost per mile for the twocases is negligible.

In addition to increasing fuel costs, Improved

Environment policies would also cause auto-mobile maintenance costs to rise. It is estimatedthat mandatory inspection and maintenance of emission control equipment would add between0.4 an d 0.5 cent per mile to the cost of owningand operating an automobile in 2000, comparedto the Base Case.

The total increase in operating costs per mile

for the Improved Environment policies rangesfrom 0.7 to 1.0 cents per mile in 1985 comparedwith the Base Case, an increment of about 5 per-cent. In 2000, the cost increases would be 0.4 to0.5 cent per mile, or about 3 percent higher thanthe Base Case.

One measure to reduce air pollution in theImproved Environment Case is the applicationof strong cost disincentives for commuting towork by automobile. Adding $3 per round tripto the cost of “drive alone” commuting wouldamount to $34 billion per year. Assuming 20miles as the length of the average round trip towork, this would constitute an increase of 15cents per vehicle mile, or a doubling of theaverage operating cost for work trips. If therewere no other penalty charges applied to auto-mobile travel, the increase would average 2cents per vehicle mile for all travel.

Auto sales and size class distribution underImproved Environment policies are projected tobe about the same as those under the petroleumconservation policies discussed in chapter 5. Im-proved Environment policies are expected tohave little or no impact on auto prices through

1985. However, after 1990, when the 0.4-gram-per-mile NOX standard goes into effect, the costof the improved emission control equipmentwould add between $5o and $2OO to the price of a new car.

ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL POLICIES

These policies are frequently suggested to deal 3. Mandatory inspection and maintenance of with the problem of automobile emissions:

vehicles in use.1. Regional standards (the so-called two-car None of these policies is proposed as a replace-

strategy), ment for the present new car emission stand-ards. Rather, they would serve as supplemen-

2. Tradeoff between control of mobile and tary measures to enhance the effect of new carstationary sources, and standards or as a way to deal with aspects of the

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automobile emissions problem not adequatelyaddressed by new car standards.

The following’ analysis is intended to shedlight on the applicability and effectiveness of these measures in reducing air pollution fromautomotive sources in the period 1985-2000.

Regional Standards

Present Federal policy on automobile emis-sions is, in effect, a regional or two-car strategy.The 1977 Clean Air Act amendments allow theStates to adopt e ither the Federal emissionstandards for new cars or the somewhat stricterstandards now in force in California. It has beensuggested that the present strategy be modifiedto allow two different standards to be set withineach State—a strict standard in areas of high airpollution (primarily large metropolitan areas),and a somewhat relaxed standard for less popu-lous parts of the State where air pollution is nota problem. Such a policy would allow automo-bile manufacturers to produce two rather differ-ent types of vehicles —’’city cars” very much likethose designed to meet the present 1981 Federalstandards, and “country cars” whose emissionswould be somewhat higher (perhaps on theorder of 15 grams per mile CO, 1.5 grams permile HC, and 2 grams per mile NO X).

The log ic beh ind th is modif ied two-carstrategy is that air pollution is basically alocalized urban problem that does not corres-

pond to State boundaries. Many States havesevere air pollution problems in one or moremetropolitan areas, but virtually no problem inthe remainder of the State, covering perhaps asmuch as 80 or 90 percent of the land area andincluding up to half of the State’s population. Byapplying automobile emission standards selec-t ive ly , S ta tes cou ld avo id the inequ i ty o f penalizing some owners by making them haveemission control equipment they do not need inorder to reduce air pollution in other areaswhere automobile use is concentrated.

A quantitative analysis of regional standardswas not made in this assessment. The commentsthat follow are offered to suggest the majorpolicy questions raised by establishing such atwo-car standard and to indicate the avenue of inquiry that should be taken.

The major advantage of the regional two-carstrategy is its purported efficiency. Measures tocontrol automobile emissions would be appliedonly where they are needed, Residents of unaf-fected areas would be spared the unnecessaryexpense of pollution control equipment. Thus,the efficiency of this policy is both technical(reduced auto emission in cities) and economic(the costs are borne chiefly by those whose useof automobiles creates the problem). Regionalstandards may also be more cost-effective thanother nationally applied emission control poli-cies, although this point has not been firmlyestablished.

The disadvantages of a regional two-carstrategy lie primarily in implementation. For thestandards to be effective, it would be necessaryto obtain the cooperation and support of 5 0State governments and hundreds of local juris-dictions. Since many metropolitan areas spanState boundaries, it wouId also be necessary for

some s ta tes to reach b i la te ra l o r t r i la te ra lagreements to coordinate standards and enforcecompliance. Registration of vehicles and deter-mination of which standard each vehicle in theState should meet could be a cumbersome proc-ess, both at the time of initial sale and subse-quent resale. Since standards would probablybe applied on a county-by-county basis, theburden on the admin is t ra t ive appara tus o f county governments could be enormous.

Automobile manufacturers are likely to op-pose regional standards. The higher cost of cars

equipped to meet urban standards might reducesales, without any prospect of recouping theselosses through increased sales of less expensivecars in rural areas. Because of economies of scale in manufacturing, the present single stand-ard might yield 1ower new car prices than aregional two-car standard, which would call fortwo somewhat different product lines. A de-tailed analysis of the comparative costs needs tobe made both to determine the impacts on con-sumers and to assess the consequences for in-dustry profitability and production.

Mobile-Stationary Source Tradeoff

The projections of air quality for 1985 a n d2000 under Base Case and Improved Environ-ment policies indicate that, for HC and NO X,

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automobile emissions will constitute a small anddiminishing fraction of the total of thesepollutants from all sources. By 2000, automo-bile-emitted hydrocarbons will make up about10 percent of the national aggregate, and auto-mobiles and other mobile sources combined areexpected to account for only one-quarter of allhydrocarbon emissions. The picture for NO X issimilar. Automobiles are projected to emit less

than 10 percent of all NO X in 2000, and othermobile sources will emit an additional 18 per-cent. Thus, the major share of these pollutants(70 to 75 percent) wil l come from stat ionarysources.

These figures are national aggregates and donot necessarily reflect the situation that is ex-pected to exist in many urban areas where, be-cause of concentrated vehicular traffic, auto-mobiles and trucks may continue to be large (if not major) sources of pollution. Still, it appearsthat consideration should be given to tradeoffs

between mobile and stationary source stand-ards. These tradeoffs might be applied either asan alternative to setting new and stricter stand-ards for automobiles after 1985 or as a way of relaxing existing standards for one or n- to r eautomobile-emitted pollutants in the interest of reducing cost or improving fuel economy.

An illustration of how this tradeoff policymight be applied can be seen in the question of whether to tighten the NO X standard for newcars from 1.0 gram per mile to 0.4 gram per mileafter 1985. The cost-effectiveness of various

control measures for mobile and stat ionarysources was analyzed by the Federal Task Forceon Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980.

29 The re-sults of this analysis, shown in table 69 and fig-ure 34, indicate that—in terms of cost-effective-ness—several s trategies aimed at s tat ionarysources are superior to a stricter NOX s tandardfor automobiles.

In all, nine measures to control mobile or sta-tionary source NOX emissions were consideredin the analysis. The cumulative effect of the sixthat ranked highest on the criterion of cost-ef-

fectiveness (four measures to control stationarysources, one for trucks, and a I. O-gram-per-milestandard for automobiles) was an annual reduc-

‘W, S. Department of Transportation, The Report by the FederalTask Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980, pp . 10-1 to 10-.s.

tion of 14 million tons of NO X at a cost of $4billion per year. 30 By adopting the remainingthree measures on the l is t , an addit ional 8million tons of NO X could be removed from theatmosphere per year, but at a further cost of $9billion per year.

The cost-effectiveness of automobile NO x

standards of 1.0 gram per mile and 0.4 gram per

mile can be compared to that of various sta-tionary source controls by examinin g figure 34.The I .()-gram-per-mile standard has a cost-ef-fectiveness rate of $450 per ton of NO x removedand ranks sixth among all measures. The 0.4-gram-per-mile standard has a cost-effectivenessrate of $2,300 per ton—the 1east cost-effective of the nine measures considered.

Analysis such as this indicates that control of stationary sources would be the more effectiveexpenditure of funds to achieve an overal lreduction in NOX emissions. Further, lowering

the automobile NOX standard from 1.0 gram permile to 0.4 gram per mile appears to yield rathersmall benefits in terms of the cost incurred.Changing the standard from 2.0 to 1.0 gram permile would remove 1.91 million tons of NO X

from the atmosphere per year, at a cost of $45oper ton. Reducing the standard from 1.0 to 0.4gram per mile would remove an additional 1.15million tons of NOX per year and cost $2,300 perton. In other words, 60 percent more benefit butat a cost 5 times greater.

Cost, however, is but one criterion for mak-

ing tradeoffs. Consideration must also be givento other criteria, such as the relative importanceof each type of emission source in the overallpattern of air pollution. For example, there issome evidence from a recent study of smog for-mation in the Los Angeles Air Basin 31 that emis-sions from automobiles figure more prominent-ly than stationary source emissions in severesmog episodes. If this interpretation of the datais confirmed and similar results are found in

‘“The projected emission reductions cited here should not beconfused with those given elsewhere in this report. The figureshere are from the Federal Task Force report and are based on a dif-

ferent forecasting methodology from that used by OTA. The projections by the Federal Task Force and OTA, while in generalagreement, cannot be compared point by point.

“A. Eschenroeder, Applications of the Los Angeles ReactivePollutant Program (LARPP) to the Assessment of Proposed

California Emission Controls, presented to the California AirResources Board Workshop, Jan. 5-6, 1977.

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Table 69.—Cost Effectiveness of Control Strategies for NOX Emission in 2000

0/ 0 of Cumulative CumulativeNOX baseline 0/0 of c ost An nu al c os t Cum ul at iv e NO,

removed emissions baseline effective- of strategy annual cost removedControl strategy (106 tons) removed a removed ness ($/ton) (billions $) (billions $) (10 6 tons)

1

2

3

4

New utility boilers from25% to 50% control . . . . . . . . . 3.52Industrial boilers from25°/0 to 65°/0 control . . . . . . . . . 2.46

Existing utility boilers from25% to 50% control . . . . . . . . . 0.62Stationary internal com-bustion engines from 25% to50% controlb. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.87Other mobile from 10 gm/ mile to 80°/0 control . . . . . . . . . 2.9Lightweight vehicles from2.0 to 1.0 gin/mile . . . . . . . . . . . 1.91Utility boilers from 50%to 90°/0 control . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.62Stationary internal com-bustion engines from 75% to90°/0 control. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.86

. Light utility vehicles from

100

150

225

0.35

0.37

0.14

0.35

0.72

0.86

3.5

6.0

6.6

11

7

2

11

18

20

9

9

6

20

29

38

44

64

340

450

450

1,200

0.98

1.3

0.86

7.94

1.84

3.14

4.0

11.94

9.5

12.4

14.31

20.93

5

6

7

8

3 67 1,700 1.46 13.43 21.799

1.0 to 0.4 gin/mile . . . . . . . . . . . 1.15 3 70 2,300 2.65 16.08 22.94

Figure 34.—Cost-Effectiveness of NOX Control Strategies

NO, removed bychanging LDVs from1.0 to 0.4 gm/mile

9

NO, control strategies

25 New utility boilers from25% to 50% control

Industrial boilers from25% to 65%. control

Existing utility boilersfrom 25% to 50% control

Internal combustionengines from 25% to75°. control

Other mobile from 10gm/mile to 800/0 control

“Light-duty vehicles”from 2,0 to 1.0 gm/mile

Utility boilers from50% to 90% control

Internal combustionengines from 75% to900/o control

LDV from 1.0 to 0.4

1.

2.

3.

4.

5

6.

7

8

9

NOX removed by

changing LDVs from2.O to 1.0 gm/mile

B20

/ 5

—

6Cost of removing NO,by changing LDVs from1.0 to 0.4 gm/mile

5

gin/mile1 1

5 10 15

Cumulative annual cost (billions of dollars)NOTE: Baseline emissions = 34,1 x 10 6 tons in 2000 and IS based upon-

LDV standard 2.0 gin/mile, other mobile 10 gin/mile, 25%. controlof all stationary source emissions

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, The Report by the Federal Task Force on Motor Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980, p 10-3

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other cities, a much stronger argument can bemade for a stricter automobile NO X s t a n d a rddespite its relatively high cost.

A second, somewhat different example of theneed for a policy that permits tradeoffs can befound in the comparison between emissionsfrom gasoline-powered vehicles and those frompowerplants producing electricity for battery-

powered vehicles. In this case, the tradeoff to bemade is not between alternative measures tocontrol a single pollutant but between differenttypes of pollutants. The results of one such anal-ysis are shown in table 70.

This analysis indicates that the use of electricvehicles would result in the virtual eliminationof carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emis-sions, even if the powerplants were fired bycoal. Nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, how-ever, would be emitted in much greater quan-tities. The emission of NO X, in terms of the

equivalent per vehicle mile, would be 3 to 4times higher for electric vehicles. Sulfur dioxideemissions would be 20 to 30 times higher. Thus,the potential use of electric vehicles forces atradeoff that must take into consideration notonly the quantities of each type of pollutant, butalso the comparative cost and technical feasibil-ity of mobile and stationary source controls.

Regardless of the importance attached tothese two examples of mobile-stationary sourcetradeoffs, one point emerges clearly. No singlep o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l m e a s u r e — w h e t h e r i t i s

directed at automobiles or other sources—is

uniformly superior in all situations and for allpo llu tan ts . A mix ture o f con tro ls (some formobile sources, others for stationary sources)will be required. Further, th is mixture willalmost certainly have to be varied from site tosite. What is optimum for one city may be in-adequate for another.

Substantiation of this point can be found in

the analysis of present and future air qualityproblems performed for three U.S. cities duringthis assessment. The cities studied were Wash-ington, D. C., Houston, Tex., and Chicago,Ill.,—each representative of a certain urbansituation. Washington is a city with very littleindustry and a high dependence on automobiletransportation. Houston is also a city with aheavy degree of automobile use, but it has amu c h g re a te r a mo u n t o f in d u s t ry , n o ta b lypetroleum refining. Automobile use in Chicagois also high, but Chicago has an extensive andwell-developed transit system. The industrial-

ization of the Chicago area is intense.Figures 35, 36, an d 37 show the actual and

projected levels of CO, HC, and NO X emissionsin these three cities for 1975, 1985, an d 2000.More significant than the absolute quantities of pollutants is the way in which the distributionby source changes over time and from city tocity. No attempt is made here to draw detailedconclusions about the relative effectiveness of different control measures. The figures speakfor themselves and illustrate the basic point thatfuture air poIlution control strategies must be

both flexible and selectively applied.

Table 70.— Electric-Vehicle Emisisons Comparedto Gasoline-Vehicle Emissions, 2000

Electric-vehicle powerplant emissions’Gasoline vehicle

Type of (composite) Coal fired Oil firedemission (gm/mi) (gm/mi) (gm/mi)

Carbon monoxide . . . 3.78 0.012-0.021 0.0001Hydrocarbons . . . . . . 0.461 0.004-0.007 0.0001

Nitrogen oxidesb

. . . . 0.588 1.51-2.66 0.649-1.14Sulfur dioxide’. . . . . . 0.13 2.597-4.57 1.731-3.02

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Figure 35.— Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago(thousands of tons)

-

1975 1985

Washington

1,005 356

2000

344

Houston

1,307 623 586

Chicago

2,742

. . . . .. . . .

Other mobile

Stationary

959

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Figure 36.— Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago(thousands of tons)

1975 1985

Washington

183 126

Houston

Chicago

363

920

322

Key

i. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . ... .,,. . . . .. . . .

887

Auto

Other mobile

Stationary

2000

150

305

SOURCE Sydec EEA, pp V-48, V-50 and V-53

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Figure 37.— Projected Nitrogen Oxide Emissions for Washington, Houston, and Chicago(thousands of tons)

1975 1985 2000

Washington

208

Houston

401

Chicago

700

225

501

923

264

593

1,072

SOURCE: SydeclEEA, pp. V-48, V-50 and V-53

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Mandatory Inspection and Maintenance

The projected effects of a program of inspec-tion and maintenance of vehicles in use werepresented earlier in this chapter. It was foundthat inspection and maintenance could yieldsubstantial benefits—the largest of any environ-mental measure considered—if adopted nation-wide and consistently enforced. The purpose of the discussion offered here is to examine some of the factors that would influence the implementa-tion of the program and its potential cost to thepublic.

To implement the p rogram would requ irethat inspection stations be set up in all localities,either in private service stations and garages orin State-operated facilities, to measure theamounts of CO and HC in automobile exhaust.At present, there is no rapid and practical testfor NOX or evaporative HC, and no inspection

procedure for these emissions is assumed for thisdiscussion. Based on empirical data on emis-sions from vehicles of various ages, the control-ling Government agency would establish emis-sion standards. Some percentage of the vehiclesin each age group would fail the inspection, andowners would be required to effect the necessaryadjustments, repairs, or replacements and sub-mit to reinspection.

An inspection and main tenance p rogramcould be administered and implemented in sev-eral ways. Two of the most l ikely methods

would be State-run inspection centers or certi-fication of private service stations as inspectionstations. The former would give the State orlocal government a direct role in the inspectionprocess, whereas the latter would delegate alarge portion of the responsibility for the pro-gram to private service station operators. Bothprograms would require special equipment toanalyze emissions. Costs can range from $2,000per analyzer for an idle mode test to $12,000 peranalyzer for a test that simulates the variousdriving modes.

Both programs would require employmentand training of personnel. The State-run inspec-tion would need personnel to run the facilityand to perform the inspections. Maintenancewould be carried out at a private station orgarage of the owner’s choice. The privately run


program would require State personnel to trainthe service station employees in the use of theequipment and to certify and to check on theirproficiency. In either case, it would be necessaryfor the agency responsible for the program tohave legisla tive authority to inspect privatevehicles and require maintenance if emissionsexceeded a specified level.

An appreciation of the complexities of estab-lishing a nationwide system of inspection can begained by looking at the efforts of DOT to es-tablish the Periodic Motor Vehicle Inspection(PMVI) program for safety features. In 1966,

DOT encouraged States to establish inspectionprograms to assure the safety of vehicles on theroad. Twenty-three States voluntarily estab-lished PMVI programs. In 1967, 10 more Statespassed laws in response to the Highway SafetyAct that provided for withholding Federalhighway funds from States without PMVI pro-grams. Table 71 shows the results of DOT’s ef-

fort to encourage State inspection programsover the 6- year period between 1969 an d 1974.Aside from the original 32, no State adopted atrue periodic inspection program during thisperiod, but three States adopted programs of in-spection of vehicles at the time of title transferor on the spot or on a random basis. The inabili-ty of DOT to expand the concept after the initialflurry has been attributed to several factors:

q

q

q

q

The cost of establishing a thorough na-tional program,

Disagreement on appropria te levels of

standards and testing,Inability to demonstrate the benefits of theprogram, and

Adverse public reaction to inefficient or un-ethical testing practices and subsequent re-pair costs.

This experience suggests that an inspectionprogram is likely to be successful only if thefollowing conditions are met:

q

q

•

There is a simple uniform testing procedure

that is easily implemented and audited.The costs of the program are kept withinacceptable limits.

The benefits of the program are projectedbefore the program starts and updated with

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180 qChanges in the Future Use and Characteristics of Automobile Transportation System

Table 71 .—State Motor Vehicle Inspection Programs

1969 1974

Registered vehicles Registered vehicles(millions) (millions)

Type of inspection No. of Statesa Total Inspected No. of StatesaTotal Inspected

No inspection . . . . . . . . . . . 10 23 0 7 25 0Spot/title transfer . . . . . . . . 9 25 3 12 35 8Annual inspection. . . . . . . . 25 45 45 25 57 57Semiannual inspection. . . . 7 12 12 7 14 14

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 105 60 51 131 79Percent of registered

vehicles inspected . . . — 57% — — 61‘A —

actual results after the program is in opera-tion.

These th ree a reas o f concern—test ing p ro-

cedures, cost, and benefits—are closely tied.Currently, there are a variety of testing pro-

cedures that could be used. They can be groupedin two categories:

1. Direct examination of specific maladjust-ments and malfunctions using conven-tional or more sophisticated garage-typeequipment, and

2. I n d i r e c t d i a g n o s i s o f e n g i n e m a l a d - justments and malfunctions using meas-urements of exhaust emission levels under

different engine load ings .32

No single procedure is ideally suited to all situa-tions. However, in the interests of uniformityand ease of administra tion on a nationwidebasis, it may be desirable to adopt a commonprocedure. If so, the procedure should meet thefollowing minimum criteria:

• All cars should be inspected on a periodicbasis, either annually or semiannually, on aschedule that coincides with vehicle regi-stration.

‘ZO. P. Hall, 1r., and N. A. Richardson, The Ecot~om~c E~~ec-ti~leuess of Vehirlc Inspection Malntenurlce as a Mea)ls for Redt~c-

irz,g Exhaust Em ~ssi(lus A Qua~~titati7~e Appralsul S o c i e t y of

Automot ive E ng inee rs , Au tomot ive E ng inee r ing Congress(Detroit: Feb. 15-Mar. 1, 1974).

q The inspection costs should be low so asnot to impose economic hardship. 33

q The inspection program must provide for

mandatory maintenance and repair. 34The question of payment for maintenance and

repair or replacement is particularly trouble-some. One method is to include the cost of repair or maintenance in the inspection fee. Thecost of repair could be averaged for all vehiclesinspected. Another method would be to increasethe initial cost of the emissions control devicesto include warranty coverage for necessar y

ma in te n a n c e a n d re p a i r s . I f a u to mo b i le o requipment manufacturers were obligated toprovide this insurance, as they presentl y do in

warranties on other parts of the automobile, anadditional benefit gained from the programwould be an incentive for the manufacturer toproduce reliable and durable emission controlsystems that are easy and inexpensive to repairor maintain.

It would probably be necessary for the Fed-eral Government to assume financial responsi-bility for the development of a uniform testingprogram and for disseminatin g information toState personnel. Once the program is in opera-

“The State of Arizona provides an inspection program thatcosts $S per vehicle , which is entirely covered by increasedregistration fees. The State of New York has estimated that emis-sions testing would cost $3.72 per vehicle inspected if the programwere State-administered. Both of these States were costing pro-grams to test vehicles under both idle and loaded conditions.

“0.P. Hall, Jr., and N.A. Richardson.

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tion, the Federal Government would have tofund the monitoring of the program on a na-tional level. The States would have to fund in-it ia l expenses of establishing the programs,unless the Federal Government were to providegrants to cover these costs, Federal funds mightalso be necessary either to operate the programor to monitor privately operated test facilities.However, these expenses might be recoveredthrough inspection fees, as in the State of Arizona. The consumer would probably have topay the inspection fee and the cost of mainte-nance either by means of the inspection fee or byincreased cost of emissions control devices if awarranty system for emission control equip-ment could be devised. Automobile manufac-turers would incur higher expenses in coveringthe emission control equipment under warran-ty , but this cost would almost certa inly bepassed along to the owner.

The political impacts of the program wouldalso be important. From DOT’s experience intrying to implement the PMVI program, it is ob-vious that Federal standards for testing and thethreat of withholding Federal funds from Statesare not sufficient to guarantee adoption of an in-spection and maintenance program. In order toachieve uniform testing in all States, it wouldp r o b a b l y r e q u i r e s o m e f o r m o f F e d e r a llegislation—either a mandate or a strong systemof incentives. States, in turn, would have to passenabling legislation to modify portions of theirlegal codes–a process that would be lengthyand fraught with political difficulties.

Table 72 is a summary of the impacts that amandatory inspection and maintenance pro-gram could have on Federal and State govern-ments, consumers, a n d th e a u to mo b i le in -dustry.

Table 72.—impacts of Mandatory Testing and Maintenance of Emissions Control Devices

Cost impacts Political impacts Other impacts

Federal Funding for development Legislation requiring Additional personnel forof uniform test procedure. State participation. program development and

monitoring.Funding for initial programdevelopment.

Funding for nationalmonitoring.

State Funding for establishing Changes of vehicle Additional personnel forprogram. registration procedures system operation and

Funding for either oper- or new procedures to monitoring.ating or monitoring require testing oftesting and repair vehicles.procedures.

Funding for data collec- Decreased State inde-tion and processing. pendence in solving

emissions problems.

Consumer Increased cost of either Inconvenience and timevehicle registration or required for inspectionemissions control and maintenancedevices. Independent automobile

repair.Shift of some personnel

to testing and repair

programs.Automobile Increased cost and Increased incentive for

maintenance inconvenience of insur- reliable, maintenance-freeing emissions control emissions control devices.devices.

SOURCE Sff/ p G 35

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Chapter 7

SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES,AND FINDINGS

. .&s+w -. .

+q

.

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Chapter 7.—SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185Traffic Crash Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189

Crashes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . +. . .............190Deaths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........190

Injury . . . . . . . . . . . ........................192Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....................192Present Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196

Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. . ...........196Safety Defect Recall Campaigns . ...........196State and Local Highway Safety Programs. ...198Other Related Policies.. . ..................200

Projections . . . . . . . ..*.*... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200lssues and Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 1

Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....201Policy Framework. . .......................204Highway Design . .........................204Vehicle Design Features . . . . . . . . ...........211Vehicles in Use. . .........................214User Performance . .......................215Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . .......................217

Alcohol Use.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...219Support Systems . ........................220Goals . . . . . . . . . . . ........................220


73. 1977 Crash Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18674. Leading Causes of Deaths for 1975. ... ... 18675. Motor Vehicle Deaths by Nations . . . . . . . . . ..18976. Estimates of Death Rate for Transportation

Modes in the United States. . ..............18977. Crash Data by Vehicle Type, 1976...........19078. Fatal Crashes 1975-77: Number of

Persons, Crashes,Vehicles, and Fatalities

by Vehicle Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19179. Abbreviated lnjury Scale Severity Code3:

Severe (Not Life-Threatening). . ............19380. Motor Vehicle lnjuries, 1975...............19481. injuries in the United States, 1977..........19482. Estimated Cost of Traffic Crashes in 1977 ...19583. National Safety Council Summary of Motor

Vehicle Accident Ccsts in 1976............19584. Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety

Standards and Regulations. . ..............197

85.

86.87.

88.89.

90

91.

92.

93.

94

95

96.

Page

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards,Near-Term lmprovements UnderConsideration for PassengerVehicles .. ....198Federal Highway Safety Program Standards .199Sa fe ty Is s ue s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 2

Traffic Crash Causation. . .................202Ranking of Counte rmeasures by DecreasingCost-Effectiveness in Present VaIue DollarsPerTotal Fatalities Forestalled—1O-Year Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .207Ranking of Countermeasures by lncreasingCosts of implementation in Present ValueDollars-10-YearTotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208Ranking of Countermeasures byDecreasingPotential to Forestall Fatalities and lnjuryAccidents—10-YearTotal . ................209Countermeasures Related to HighwayDesign— 1O-YearTotal. . . . . ...............210Part A.—Occupant Crash Protection SystemEffectiveness Estimates; Part B—Effectiveness of Occupant Crash Protection

Systems . . . . . . . . . .......................212Vehicle Crashworthiness and DamageabilityL e v e l s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1 4Effectiveness of Level ll CrashworthinessWith AirCushion Restraint Systems . .......214Effect of Safety Belt Usage Laws Aroundthe Worid-Februaryl, 1977...............216


38. 1975 Loss of Working Life-AnnualMan-Years . . . . . . . .......................187

39. Traffic Deaths byAgeGroups. . ............187

40. Motor-VehicleTrave~ Deaths,and DeathRates . . . . . . . . . . . .......................188

41. Trends in Death Rates, . . . . . . . . . . .........18842. Percent Distribution of Fatalities by Principal

Im pa c t Po in t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 9 243. MotorVehicleDeaths, 1975-2000...........20144. issues, Policies, and Strategies for

Tr a f f ic Sa fe ty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 545. Policy Analysis Flow Diagram . ............20646. Two Research Safety Vehicles . ...........,213

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SAFETY ISSUES, POLICIES, CHAPTER

AND FINDINGS

7

SUMMARY

The current annual toll of motor vehiclecrashes is almost 48,000 deaths and over 4 mil-lion injuries. The estimated monetary cost tosociety is approximately $44 billion, Despiteexisting Federal policies, regulations, and pro-grams dealing with automobile and highwaysafety, and despite the introduction of new safe-ty features, such as passive restraints, the an-nual toll is expected to keep rising, By 2000,there could be as many as 64,000 dea ths andover 5 million injuries annually.

The major aspects of the system that need tobe addressed to improve safety are vehicle andhighway design and driver behavior. All havebeen the subject of Federal highway and trafficsafety policies and programs, and it appearsthat these efforts by the Federal Governmenthave had a beneficial effect. The rate of fatalitiesper vehicle mile has been reduced nearly 40 per-cent in the past decade. In absolute numbers,however, the annual toll remains high and is ex-pected to rise steadily in the coming years as the

result of more cars on the road, more drivers,and more miles of travel, Additional policiesand programs to stem the trend of increasingdeath and injury should be considered.

In the near term, safety benefits could be

realized rapidly from policies to promote in-creased use of seat belts (passive restraints willnot be in widespread use for many years) and toenforce adherence to the 55 mph speed limit.Potentially great benefits could also be achievedby measures to reduce the use of alcohol asso-ciated with driving.

In the long term, increased crashworthinessand improved occupant restraint systems are

two aspects of vehicle design that could producesignificant reductions in death and injury. Forhighways, the greatest benef i ts cou ld beachieved by a general program to e liminateroadside hazards or to provide crash attenua-tion.

As a long-term strategy, the Federal Govern-ment may also wish to consider the policy of establishing a comprehensive set of specific andquantitative safety goals. This policy, analo-gous to those which established national goalsfor clean air and fuel economy, could provide

th e b a s i s fo r p la n n in g , imp le me n t in g , a n devaluating individual safety measures. Safetygoals could also provide for more effective coor-dination of Federal, State, and local programsand could help in determining the appropriateallocation of resources.

BACKGROUND

The safety of the automobile transportation to society are estimated to be $44 billion annual-

system is a severe and long-standing problem. ly. (See table 73. )Fo r ma n y y ea r s, h igh wa y d ea th s h a v e a c-counted for over 90 percent of all the transpor- In this century, approximately 2 million per-tation-related deaths in the country. In 1977, the sons have died and nearly 100 million have beentoll on streets and highways amounted to 47,715 injured through the use of motor vehicles—adeaths and over 4.3 million injuries. The costs total that is more than 3 times the combat losses

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Table 73.—1977 Crash Data

Crashes a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,600,000Vehicles involveda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,800,000Injuries b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000Deaths C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,700

Auto occupants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,400Van, pickup occupants . . . . . . . . . . . 5,200Motorcycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,100Pedestrian & cyclists. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,600

Truck, bus, and other. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,400

Estimated costd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $44billion

suffered by the United States in all wars. 1 T h eNation’s vehicles and highways cla im moreAmerican lives each year than were lost in eitherthe Korean or Southeast Asia Wars. On the

average, a highway fata li ty occurs every 11minutes and an injury every 9 seconds.

In 1975, motor vehicle crashes accounted for2.4 percent of total reported deaths in the UnitedStates and ranked as the sixth leading cause of death. (See table 74. ) Accidents of all kinds ac-counted for 103,000 deaths and 10.7 million in-

juries in 1975, and motor vehicle crashes repre-sented approximately 45 percent of the total ac-cidental deaths and 37 percent of the injuries.Measured in terms of working life lost, traffic

Table 74.—Leading Causes of Deaths for 1975

PercentCauses Number of Total

Diseases of the heart. . . 716,215 37.8Malignant neoplasms . . 365,693 19.3Cerebrovascular disease 194,038 10.3Other accidents. . . . . . . 57,177 3.0Pneumonia . . . . . . . . . . . 51,387 2.7Motor vehicle crashes . . 45,853 2.4

‘National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1977 Edition,

deaths represent a social problem comparable toheart disease and cancer. (See figure 38. )

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death in the 15 to 34 age group. About half of the yearly death toll consists of persons in thatage bracket. As shown in figure 39, the propor-tion of young adults that die in traffic crashesfar exceeds the relative size of this age group in

the population as a whole.

Over the years, the general trend has been acontinuing increase in the number of trafficfatalities. A high point of 56,000 d e a th s wa sreached in 1973. A sharp drop to 46,000 deathsoccurred in 1974, due in part to the 55 mphspeed limit and the temporary reduction in autotravel brought about by the gasoline shortage.Since then, the number of fatalities has risenagain but still remains below the peak of 1973.

While the number of traffic deaths has grown

over the years, the fatality rate (deaths per 100million miles of vehicle travel) has steadilydeclined—from 18 per 100 million miles in 1925to 3.25 per 100 million miles in 1977. T h u s ,while the death rate is decreasing, the steady risein the number of autos and miles of travel hasresulted in a growing number of traffic deaths.(See figure 40.)

Traffic mortality on a population basis in-creased in the years 1960 to 1973, but declinedin 1974, consistent with the sharp drop infatalities. (See figure 41. ) The traffic death rate

per hundred thousand population has rangedfrom about 20 to 30 over the last five decades.

While the death rate per vehicle mile traveledis relatively low in this country, the death rateper 100,000 population is on the high side com-pared with other nations. Industrialized coun-tries in general rank high in transportation mor-tality rates—with some exceptions, notablyJapan, Great Britain, Sweden, and East Ger-many. (See table 75. )

When stated in terms of passenger miles of

travel, as shown in table 76, the death rate forautomobiles is among the highest of all modesof transportation. Automobile travel is con-siderably more dangerous than bus, rail, andairline travel, but a much safer form of trans-port than motorcycle and general aviation.

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3

2

S

“

death

Otheraccidents

Heartdisease Cancer

Figure 39.—Traffic Deaths by Age Groups

40

34.7

16.9

9.4 8.8 .

1

0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 OVER 65

Age group

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188 . Changes in the Future Use and Characteristics o/ the Automobile Transportation System

140

80

60

40

20

0

Motor-Vehicle Travel, Deaths, and Death Rates

35

. /

,

/ “

/

/ \ \

1925 1930 1935 1940 1950 955 1960 1965 1970 1975

41 .—Trends in Death Rates

50

40

30

20

10

0

E

15

10

5

0

,

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975

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Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings q 189

Table 75.—Motor Vehicle Deaths By Nationsa

Deaths per100,000

Nat ion Year Deaths population

, Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Japan, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .England-Wales. . . . . . . . . . . . .Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Greece. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .East Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Ireland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Switzerland. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Israel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . .United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . .France. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .West Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . .Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Australia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Austria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Portugal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19741975197419741974

197519751974197519741975197419731974197419741974197419751975

1,11514,2066,372

5491,297

1,2362,5788,887b

849562

1,237563

2,95846,402b

11,786’14,2426,325b

3,8162,4833,299

11.1

12.813.013.814.5

15.115.315.316.818.219.519.820.322.022.523.028.128.633.034.9

Table76.— Estimates of Death Rate forTransportation Modes in the United States

Deaths per 100 millionType of travel passenger miles”

Commercial aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1Passenger train . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1Rail rapid transit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1Bus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2

Automobile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.4

Motorcycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0General aviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0

TRAFFIC CRASH DATA

Traffic crash data are collected by the States traffic fatalities. For injuries and property

(through police accident reporting), insuran ce damage, national estimates are not based on ac-comp anies, the U.S. Public Health Service, the tual totals but on reports from individual States.U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), and T h e N a t i o n a l A c c i d e n t S a m p l i n g S y s t e mvarious research organizations. The U, S. DOT (NASS), a program recently begun at DOT,Fatal Accident Reporting System is currently should greatly improve the accuracy of injuryconsidered the most reliable source of data on and property damage data in the years ahead.

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The following sections summarize the dataavailable on traffic crashes, deaths, and injuries.

Crashes

The National Safety Council (NSC) estimatedthat in 1976 there were 16,800,000 motor vehi-cle crashes involving 28,400,000 motor vehicles.

(OTA estimates for 1977, based on the1 9 7 6

figures, a re 17 ,600 ,000 c rash es in vo lv ing29,800,000 vehicles. ) About 93 percent of thosecrashes were relatively minor, involving proper-ty damage and nondisabling injury. z Table 77shows a breakdown, by vehicle type, of vehiclesinvolved in these crashes. The data indicate thatone out of every five vehicles was involved insome type of collision in 1976.

Deaths

Data from the DOT Fatal Accident Reporting

System are shown in table 78 for the years 1975to 1977.

The majority (73 percent) of the 47,715 per-sons killed in traffic crashes in 1977 were vehicleoccupants—27,353 in automobiles and 5,222 inpickups or vans. From 1975 to 1977, the largestincreases in fatalities were from crashes involv-ing heavy trucks (33.1 percent), motorcycles (28p ercen t ), a n d p ick u p s / v a n s (20.5 p e rce n t ).There was a 4.1-percent increase in automobilefatalities and a 7.2-percent increase in total

‘A disabling injury is one which causes permanent or temporarydisability for longer than 24 hours. All other injuries are classified

as nondisabling.

highway fatalities. Pedestrian and cyclist deathsaveraged over 8,000 annually for these 3 years.

Other statistics that indicate the nature anddistribution of fatal traffic crashes are:

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Males constitute 54 percent of the driversbut account for 70 percent of the driving,over 70 percent of all fatalities, and 82 per-cent of all drivers involved in fatal crashes.

On Friday, Saturday, and Sunday betweenthe hours of 4 p.m. and 4 a.m., the frequen-cy of fatal crashes is the highest. The periodfrom 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. accounts for the few-est fatalities throughout the week.

Over half of vehicle occupant fatalities arethe result of frontal impacts. (See figure42. )

For single-vehicle crashes, collision with afixed object is most prevalent.

The ratio of fatalities to occupants in multi-vehicle crashes is 2 times higher in smallcars than in large cars. For single-vehiclecrashes, the ratio is the same for all vehiclesizes.

Approximately 35 percent of the fatalitiesoccur in urban areas and 65 percent in ruralareas.

About 37 percent of urban fatalities arepedestrians, compared to 8 percent in ruralareas.

Half of the pedestrian and bicycle deaths

are persons under 14 or over 65.

Table 77.—Crash Data by Vehicle Type, 1976

Vehiclesin al I crashes Percent of vehicle Percent of registered

Type of vehicle Number Percent registrations vehicles i n crashesa

Total . . . . . . . . . . 28,400,000 100.0 100.0 19.9

Automobile. . . . . . . . 23,280,000 81.9 77,1 21.2Motorcycle’ . . . . . . . . 402,000 1.5 3.6 7.8Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235,000 0.8

0.3 55.0Trucks. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,100,000 14.5 19.0 15.2Other d . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383,000 1.3 (e) (e)

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Figure 42.—Percent Distribution of Fatalities by

Principal Impact Point

5.6

2.3

10.0

0.6

0.6

46,1

.

Front

Rear

4.0

5.0

Top 6.9

Undercarriage 0.910,4

Unknown 3.1

0.7

0.4

SOURCE Derived from U S Department of Transportation, National

Highway Safety Administration, Fatal Accident Reporting System 7976 Annual Report November 1977

Heavy trucks represent less than 1 percentof the vehicle fleet, but they are involved in9 percent of the fatal crashes.3

In collisions between cars and large trucks,the occupants of the car are 14 times morelikely to be kil led than the truck occu-pants.’

InjuryMotor vehicle injury data are not as reliable

as the information on fatalities. There are sev-eral sources of injury data, each using some-what different classifications for injury. The Na-tional Safety Council defines an injury as thatwhich results in some degree of impairment orrenders a person unable to perform regularduties or activities for a full day beyond the dayof the injury (a disabling injury). The NationalHealth Survey of the U.S. Public Health Serviceclassifies injuries in the following categories:

q Medically Attended. —A physician wasconsulted (in person or by telephone) for

treatment or advice within 2 weeks of theinjury.

Activity Restriction.—Causes a person tocut down on usual activities for 1 full day(does not require complete inactivity).

Bed Disabling. —Confines a person to bedfor more than one-half of - t h e d a y l ig h thours on the day of the injury or some

following day.In 1971, the American Medical Association’s

Committee on Medical Aspects of AutomotiveSafety published the Abbreviated Injury Scale(AIS), which provides a detailed identificationof the severity of injuries. The general AIS clas-sification is:

Code Categoryo No Injury1 Minor2 Moderate3 Severe (Not Life-Threatening)4 Serious (Life-Threatening, Survival Probable)

5 Critical (Survival Uncertain)6 Maximum (Currently Untreatable)9 Unknown

A more detailed d escription of the Cod e 3 injuries is shown in table 79 for illustrative pur-poses.

The 1975 injury data from the U.S. PublicHealth Service, the National Safety Council,and the Department of Transportation are com-pared in table 80. The data indicate that in 1975about 4,000,000 persons were injured in motorvehicle crashes, and that as many as 150,000

were left with permanent physical impairment.

The U.S. Public Health Service estimatedthere were 5,033,000 motor vehicle injuries in1977, 4,392,000 of which were traffic-related.(See table 81. ) The National Safety Councilestimates there were 1,900,000 traffic-relateddisabling injuries in 1977.5

cost

A traffic crash results in loss both to the in-

dividuals involved and to society at large. Sev-eral efforts have been made to quantify thesemonetary losses. No attempt has been made to

‘National Safety Council, Accident Facts, 1978 preliminary con-densed edition, February 1978.

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Table

General external

Laceration lnvolvingmajor nerves and/orvessels

2” or30 burns (21 % -30% body surface)

79.—Abbreviated Injury Scale Severity Code 3: Severe (Not Life-Threatening)

Head & Neck

Cerebral concussionwith or withoutskull fracture, un-consciousness morethan 15 minutes, noother neurological

Chest & thoracicspine

Thoracic cavity Injurywith unilateralhemothorax orpneumothorax.

Lung contusion.Thoracic spine frac-

Abdomen & lumbar -

spine

Abdominal organcontusion.Extraperitoneal blad-

der rupture.Diaphragm rupture,Stomach, mesentary, or

Extremity and/orpelvic girdle

Displaced, comrnlnutedand/ or open frac-ture of long bone,hand, or foot.

Displaced pelvicfracture with or

signs. ture without neuro- urethra superficial without disloca-Cerebral concussion logical Involvement laceration tion,

with displaced or (excluding minor Ureter avulsion. Major joint disloca-depressed skull compression frac- Lumbar spine fracture tionfracture, uncon- ture). without neurologicalsciousness less Multiple rib (2 or Involvement (ex.than 15 minutes, no more) fracture with - cluding minor com-other neurological out flaiI chest, press ion fracture).signs.

Avulsion of eye oroptic nerve

Open and/or displacedfacial bone fracture

or fracture withantral or orbitalInvolvement.

Cervical spine frac-ture and/or disloca-tion (C-4 or below)without cord damage

SOURCE American Associatlon of Automotive Mediclne The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 1976 revlslon

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Table 80.—Motor Vehicle Injuries, 1975

National Safety Council U.S. Public Health Service U.S. Department of TransportationCategory

Category Number Category Number (A IS Code) NumberPermanent 150,000 Without 1,448,000disabling . . . . . . . . activity

restriction . . . . . . .

Temporary 1,650,000 With activity 1,364,000 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,400,000

disabling . . . . . . . . restriction . . . . . . . 2 492,000Bed disabling . . . . 1,647,000 3 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 80,0004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,0005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,000

Total 1,800,000 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,459,000 Total . . . . . . . . . . 3,996,000disabling injuries injuriesinjuries. . . . . . . . . .

Table 81 .—Injuries in the United States, 1977

Total injury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,927,000Motor vehicle (moving) . . . . . . . . . . . 5,033,000Traffic ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,392,000Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,414,000Home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,588,000Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,435,000

SOURCE U S Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Public HealthService, National Center for Health Statistics

quantify the human suffering, pain, loss of rela-tionships, and other psychological factors asso-ciated with traffic crashes. The Department of Transportation has estimated traffic crash lossesin terms of: 1) resources consumed in treatingpersonal injury and repairing vehicular damagethat otherwise could be shifted in the long run towelfare-producing activities, and 2) losses inproduction and the ability to produce.

Table 82 shows these costs and their esti-mated value (in 1977 dollars). Multiplying these

cost components by the number of injuries inthe AIS code levels shown in table 79 and the1977 total deaths results in an estimated cost of $43.9 billion, which includes the property dam-age associated with traffic crashes. (See table82. )

The National Safety Council estimates of thecosts of traffic crashes for 1976 are shown intable 83. There is considerable difference be-tween the NSC and DOT estimates, both in thecost categories included in the totals and in thecosts within similar categories.

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. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .

. .. .. .

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PRESENT POLICY

The earliest Federal Government response tothe highway safety problem was in 1924, whenSecretary o f Co m m er ce He rb e r t Ho o v e rbrought together a group of experts at the FirstNational Conference on Street and HighwaySafety. The conference addressed such mattersas traffic control, construction and engineering,education, and motor vehicle design. Five addi-t iona l confe rences were he ld in the yearsth rough 1950 , bu t no spec if ic ro le fo r theFederal Government evolved from these efforts.

In the years following 1950, however, a moreintense interest in highway safety was displayedby Congress and the executive branch. In 1954,President Eisenhower convened a White HouseConference on Highway Safety and created aPresident’s Committee for Highway Safety. TheFederal Aid Highway Act of 1956 authorized the

Secretary of Commerce to investigate thor-oughly the Federal role in highway safety. Areport of that investigation, submitted in 1959,became the basis for significant change in theFederal Government’s involvement in highwaysafety.

Noting the increasing fatalities and injuries onthe Nation’s highways, President Johnson statedin his March 2, 1966, transportation message toCongress that:

Neither private indu stry nor governm ent offi-cials concerned with automotive transportation

have made safety first among their priorities.Yet we kn ow th at expensive freeways, pow erfulengines, and smooth exteriors will not stop themassacre on our roads.

6

The first major Federal effort in highway safe-ty began with the passage of the National Traf-fic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966 (PublicLaw 89-563) and the Highway Safety Act of 1966 (Public Law 89-564). This legislationcalled for Federal involvement in three majorareas:

1. Federal safety standards for new vehicles,

2. Safety defect recall campaigns, and

“U.S. Congress, Senate, Highway Safety Act of 1966, Senate

3. State and local highway safety programs.

These laws directly affected the automobileindustry, State and local governments, andhighway users.

Motor Vehicle Safety Standards

The most important and controversial featureof Federal involvement in highway safety is theF e d e ra l Mo to r Ve h ic le Safety Stan dard s(FMVSS). Under this program (summarized intable 84), new vehicles and vehicle componentsmust comply with certain performance require-ments before they can be sold to the public.These standards have been shown to have madea contribution to the reduction in fatality andinjury rates on highways since 1966. A recentGeneral Accounting Office study estimated that

the standards might have saved as many as28,000 lives between 1966 and 1974.7

In addition to about 50 Federal safety stand-ards now in force for passenger cars, the Na-tional Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA) has indicated its intention to extendcertain standards to include light trucks and toupgrade existing standards or issue new ones forpassenger cars. These proposed new and revisedstandards are listed in table 85.

Safety Defect Recall Campaigns

NHTSA has an aggressive vehicle defect andrecall program. In the period 1966 to 1975, 52.4million vehicles were recalled. This amounted to43 percent of the vehicles produced during thattime. a

The effectiveness of this massive recall effortin improving vehicle safety has not been deter-mined. For example, it is unknown at this timehow many of the 52.4 million vehicles recalledwere actually brought in for repair or replace-ment of defective components.

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Ch . 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings q 19 7

Table 84.—Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Regulations

Date Issued

J a n u a r y 3 1 , 1 9 6 7 .

N o v e m b e r 8 , 1 9 6 7 .

February 12, 1968.April 24, 1968 .,

July 3,1968

A u g u s t 1 3 , 1 9 6 8 ”D e c e m b e r 2 4 , 1 9 6 8 .J a n u a r y 1 7 , 1 9 6 9

March 23, 1970 ., .,July 17.1970Oc to b e r 2 2 , 1 9 7 0 . . . . . . . . .November 5, 1970. ,D e c e m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 7 0 .February 10, 1971F e b r u a r y 1 9 , 1 9 7 1April 9, 1971.April 14, 1971.D e c e m b e r 3 , 1 9 7 1 ’M a r c h 1 , 1 9 7 2 .

March 31, 1972A p r i l 4 , 1 9 7 2 .May 3.1972

A u g u s t 3 , 1 9 7 2J a n u a r y 1 7 , 1 9 7 3J a n u a r y 2 2 , 1 9 7 3January 31, 1973. .J u l y 2 6 , 1 9 7 3 . ,August 9, 1973N o v e m b e r 5 , 1 9 7 3M a y 2 0 , 1 9 7 5June 9, 1975.S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 7 5

J a n u a r y 1 9 , 1 9 7 6J a n u a r y 2 2 , 1 9 7 6 .

F e b r u a r y 2 7 , 1 9 7 6 —

Standard No 101–Standard No, 102

Standard No. 103Standard No 104Standard No 105Standard No. 106Standard No 107Standard No. 108

Standard No. 111Standard No, 201Standard No 203Standard No, 204Standard No. 205Standard No 206Standard No. 207Standard No 208Standard No 209Standard No 210Standard No 211Standard No. 301Standard No 109Standard No. 110Standard No 202Standard No, 112Standard No 113Standard No. 114Standard No. 115

Standard No. 212Standard No. 116Part No. 567Part No. 569Standard No, 213Standard No. 118Standard No 214Part No 574Standard No 302Part 573Standard No. 121Standard No 215Standard No. 117Standard No. 216Standard No 122Standard No, 125Standard No 124Standard No, 123Standard No 217

Standard No.126Part No. 577Part No 555Part No. 580Part No. 572Standard No. 218Standard No 119Part No 575Standard No 219Part No 552Part No 570Standard No, 120Standard 220Standard No. 221Standard No. 222Part 581

Standard

Control Location. Identification, and IlluminationTransmission Shift Lever Sequence, Starter Interlock, TransmissionBraking EffectWindshield Defrosting and DefoggingWindshield Wiping and Washing SystemsHydraulic Brake SystemsBrake HosesReflecting Surfaces (Chrome Trim)Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment

Rearview MirrorsOccupant Protection In Interior ImpactImpact Protection for the Driver from the Steering Control SystemSteering Control Rearward DisplacementGlazing Materials (Automobile Windshield Glass)Door Locks and Door Retention ComponentsSeating SystemsOccupant Crash ProtectionSeat Belt AssemblesSeat Belt Assembly AnchoragesWheel Nuts, Wheel DISCS, and Hub CapsFuel System IntegrityNew Pneumatic TiresTire Select ton and Rimsl-lead RestraintsHeadlamp Concealment DevicesHood Latch SystemsTheft ProtectionVehicle Identification Numbers

Windshield MountingMotor Vehicle Brake FluidsCertification RegulationRegrooved TiresChild Seating SystemsPower-Operated Window SystemsSide Door StrengthTire Identification and Record keepingFlammability of Interior MaterialsDefect ReportsAir Brake SystemsExterior Protect Ion (Bumpers)Retreaded Pneumatic TiresRoof Crush ResistanceMotorcycle Brake SystemsWarning DevicesAccelerator Control SystemsMotorcycle Controls and DisplaysBus Window Retention and Release

Truck-Camper LoadingDefect NotificationsTemporary Exemptions from Federal Motor Vehicle Safety StandardsOdometer Disclosure RequirementsAnthropomorphic Test DummyMotorcycle HelmetsNew Pneumatic TiresConsumer Information—Uniform Tire Quality GradingWindshield Zone IntrusionPetitions for rulemaking, Defect and Noncompliance OrdersVehicles in Use Inspect Ion StandardsTire Selection and Rims for Vehicles Other Than Passenger CarsSchool Bus Rollover ProtectionSchool Bus Body Joint StrengthSchool Bus Seating and Crash ProtectionBumper Standard (Incorporates Standard 215)

————.—SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Traffic Safety '76

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Table 85.—Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, Near-Term ImprovementsUnder Consideration for Passenger Vehicles

Inclusion of Upgrading ofCurrent standards light trucksa standards

FMVSS No. 201 —Occupant Protection in InteriorImpact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

FMVSS No. 203—impact Protection for theDriver from the Steering Control Systems . . . . . x x x

FMVSS No. 204—Steering Control Rearward

Displacement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x xFMVSS No. 208—Occupant Crash Protection. . . . x x X b

FMVSS No. 213—Child Restraint Systems . . . . . . xFMVSS No. 214—Side Door Strength . . . . . . . . . . . x x xFMVSS No. 101 —Control Location, Identification,

and illumination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x xFMVSS No. 105—Hydraulic Service Brake,

Emergency Brake, and Parking Brake Systems. x xc

FMVSS No. 108—Lamps, Reflective Devices, andAssociated Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x ’ x

FMVSS No. 109— New Pneumatic Tires. . . . . . . . . (d) xFMVSS No. 11 1—Rearview Mirrors. . . . . . . . . . . . . x xFMVSS No. 114—Theft Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x xFMVSS No. 115—Vehicle Identification. . . . . . . . . x

New Proposed Standards’

Exterior Protrusions (minimize)Truck Rear Underride Guard (heavy trucks)Low Tire Pressure WarningDirect Fields of ViewHandling and Stability Performance

RequirementsBrake System InspectabilitySpeedometers/Odometers (limit speed indication)

Federal

State and Local HighwaySafety Programs

Federal involvement in highway safety a tState and local levels before 1966 was limited.States were permitted to spend some Federal-Aid Highway funds for safety projects related tohighway and traffic engineering, but not fordriver safety programs or other safety featuresof the system.

The Highway Safety Act of 1966 mandatedthat the Secretary of Transportation issue safetystandards to be implemented by the States. Thelaw also provided for Federal matching grantsto assist States in implementing the standardsand provided for withholding of Federal-Aid

Highway funds (up to 10 percent) if a Statefailed to comply with a standard.

The Department of Transportation issued 18standards under this act. (See table 86. ) Com-pliance by the States has varied; in some cases,noncompliance has persisted for long periods.When DOT decided to impose sanctions, Con-gress, in the Highway Safety Act of 1976, placeda moratorium on sanctions and directed the Sec-retary to study the “adequacy and appropriate-

ness of the standards” and report the findings byJuly 1, 1977.

The DOT report prepared pursuant to thisdirection by Congress sta ted that “Federalstandards are generally adequate, in that theyincorporate countermeasures which are believed

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to ultimately reduce accidents. ” 9 DOT recom-mended “that mandatory compliance with eachof the present 18 standards no longer be re-quired. ” In certain critical areas, however, DOTstated that national conformity should still berequired and that the pertinent standards shouldbe maintained.


Legislation to this effect was proposed by theCarter Administration, but was re jected byCongress. However, the Highway Safety Act of 1978 does grant limited waivers regarding the 18standards for States with approved alternatehighway safety programs.

Table 86.— Federal Highway Safety Program Standards

Standard No. l—Periodic Motor Vehicle lnspection (NHTSA): To increase the likelihood that everyvehicle operated on the public highways is properlyequipped and is being maintained in safe operatingorder.

Standard No. 2—Motor Vehicle Registration (NHTSA): To provide a means of identifying theowner and the type, weight, size, and carrying capac-ity of all vehicles Iicensed to operate i n the State.

Standard No. 3—Motorcycle Safety (NHTSA): Toensure that motorcycles, motorcyclists, and theirpassengers meet standards that contribute to safeoperation and protection from injuries.

Standard No. 4—Driver Education (NHTSA): To en-sure that every eligible high school student has theopportunity to enroll in a course of instruction de-signed to train him to drive skillfully and as safely aspossible, under all traffic and roadway conditions.

Standard No. 5—Driver Licensing (NHTSA): To im-prove the quality of driving by requiring more effec-tive and uniform Iicensing procedures.

Standard No. 6—Codes and Laws (NHTSA): T oeliminate all major variations in traffic codes, laws,

and ordinances on given aspects of highway safety,among political subdivisions in a State, and to fur-ther the adoption of appropriate sections of the Uni-form Vehicle Code.

Standard No. 7— Traffic Courts (NHTSA): To pro-vide prompt, impartial adjudication of proceedingsinvolving motor vehicle and traffic laws.

Standard No. 8—Alcohol in Relation to Highway Safety (NHTSA): To broaden the scope and numberof activities directed toward reducing traffic ac-cidents arising in whole or in part from persons driv-ing under the influence of alcohol.

Standard No. 9—identification and Surveillance of Accident Locations (FHWA): To identify specifichighway locations which have high or potentially

high accident experience, as a basis for establishingpriorities for improvements to eliminate or reducethe hazards.

Standard No. 10—Traffic Records (NHTSA): To im-prove the quality of traffic records systems, to in-clude and have readily available all data necessary to

the operating agencies responsible for highwaysafety.

Standard No. 1 l—Emergency Medical Services (NHTSA): To provide an emergency care system forquick identification and response to accident in-

juries, to sustain life through first aid, and to coor-dinate the transportation and communicationsnecessary to bring together the injured and defini-

tive medical care i n the shortest possible time.Standard No. 12—Highway Design, Construction,and Maintenance (FHWA): To maintain existingstreets in a condition to promote safety, to moder-nize or build new roads to meet safety standards,and to protect motorists from accidents at construc-tion sites.

Standard No. 13—Traffic Engineering Services (formerly Traffic Control Devices) (FHWA): To assureapplication of modern traffic engineering principlesand uniform standards for traffic control.

Standard No. 14—Pedestrian Safety (NHTSA and FHWA); To emphasize the recognition of pedestrianand pedal cyclist safety as an integral, constant, andimportant element in community planning, and toensure continuing programs to improve such safety.

Standard No. 15—Police Traffic Services (NHTSA): To improve police traffic services in all aspects ofaccident prevention. and to bring errant drivers to

justice.Standard No. 16—Debris Hazard Control and

C/can-up (NHTSA): To provide for the planning, train-ing, coordination, and communication needed toassure prompt correction of conditions that con-stitute potential traffic dangers.

Standard No. 17—Pupil Transportation Safety (NHTSA): To reduce the danger of death or injury toschool children being transported to and fromschool, by setting requirements for safe equipmentand its maintenance, and for training and supervi-sion of drivers and maintenance personnel.

Standard No. 18—Accident Investigation and Reporting (NHTSA): To establish a uniform, com-prehensible, accident invest igat ion program togather information on traffic accidents and enter itinto the traffic records system for use in furtheringhighway safety.

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Adminitration, Traffic Safety 76

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70,000

60,000

50,000

20,000

10,000

Figure 43. —Motor Vehicle Deaths, 1955 to 2000

L

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

SOURCE OTA propctlon using Base Case VMT adjusted for total vehicle travel

ISSUES AND POLICIES

In the last century technology has changedradically the way people live and the way theydie. Infectious disease as a cause of death hasvirtually been eliminated. A child born in theUnited States today can look forward to a lifeuntroubled by common diseases such as small-p ox, s ca r le t fe ve r, d ip hth er ia, tu bercu losis,

typhoid fever, and polio , which were majorcauses of death a few generations ago.11 Today,however, that same child is confronted with theprospect that from age 1 to 39, he or she is morelikely to die in a motor vehicle crash than in anyo th e r ma n n e r .

Traffic safety is a modern sociotechnicalproblem, created by the interaction of humans,highways, and motor vehicles. Improvements intraffic safety will depend on adjustments orchanges in the vehicles, in highways, and in theway people use them. The issues and policies

considered in this study revolve around thesechanges.

11-07 ~ f ) - 7 I - 11

Issues

In the course of this assessment, eight safetyissues were identified and examined. Theseissues address the level of Federal involvementin safety, the priorities and allocation of safetyactivities, the application of safety technology,

the methodologies used to select and evaluatesafety strategies, and the distribution of safetycosts. The issues are presented in table 87. 13

They have been developed to guide the formula-tion and evaluation of policy alternatives, andthe identification of potential policy impacts.

The issues that address the role of the FederalGovernment in traffic safety, the level of in-volvement, and the questions of establishingpriorities for safety strategies have been the subject of intense debate over the years, and thisdebate is unlikely to subside. Many considera-

tions bear on these issues: the severity of the problem,

‘‘A discussion of the Issues IS contained in a working paperp r e p a r e d by the OT A s ta f f , ISSIJLTS ltl~’(~lz?cd IN t)lc St I/ dv of the,P(2tc}7tI[71 Ch[mWj 1) 1 tlILT C“II[zr(IL-fcrI sfI[-s L ~H( / USC of f17c AI/ tcIt)I()-IIIIP TrLIt7S/ JtI)tLIfI(IFJ 5YstLJt?I OTA, Oct. 21, I977.

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Table 87. Safety Issues

Goals. —By what process should the Federal Gov-ernment set safety goals for the automobile trans-portation system, and in what forms should thesegoals be expressed—quantitative, qualitative?

Involvement.—To what extent and how does theachievement of safety goals require Federal Govern-ment involvement with the automobile transporta-tion industry, State, and local governments? Private

institutions and the general public/individuals? Whatshould be the roles of each of these groups?Methodologies. —To what extent should the Fed-

eral Government use benefit-cost, cost effective-ness, or other methodologies to assess automobilesafety strategies and improvements?

Requirements. —Should the Federal Governmentset minimum safety requirements for each class ofvehicle, highway, and user? If so, how should thoserequirements and associated risk management ac-tivities be set pertaining to safety at entry, in opera-tion, and at reentry?

Priorities and Allocation.—How should the Fed-eral Government set priorities for achieving safetygoals among strategies dealing with vehicles, high-ways, and system users?

Technology .—What should the Federal Govern-ment do to decrease the time to attain general usageof proven safety advances?

Involvement. —Should the Federal Governmentimpose upon the automobile transportation systemsafety measures beyond those which individuals,governments, and industry perceive as necessary tocontrol risk? What steps should the Federal Govern-ment take to improve the understanding of individ-uals, governments, and industry of the nature of riskand benefits of managing risks?

Costs.— How should the Federal Government de-termine how the cost of safety is allocated? WhoshouId pay? How much? When? By what means?

q

q

q

q

q

the responsibility of the Federal Govern-ment in matters affecting the public health,

the resources available,

questions o f in d iv id u a l f r e e d o m an dchoice,

public and private sector interests, and

public attitudes and opinions.

There is general agreement that the traffic

safety problem is severe and worthy of seriousattention, but there is debate over what to doabout the problem, No single stakeholder groupin the automobile transporta tion system iswholly responsible for traffic crashes, and nosingle stakeholder could effectively or complete-

ly solve the safety problem. Likewise, there isno unanimous “public opinion” on the technicaland political feasibility of solutions.

Although there is no one solution and nosingle party responsible for action, there aremany technical features of the automobile trans-portation system and many behavioral aspectsof highway users which, if altered, could make

partial contributions to a reduction in highwaylosses. The marketplace has not provided suffi-cient incentive to bring about these changes.Thus, Federal initiative and Federal involve-ment appear to be appropriate.

For many years highway crashes were gener-ally considered “accidents” caused by individ-uals, and hence an individual problem. Al-though this view is still held by some, there isgrowing awareness that traffic crashes, and theresulting death and injury, are a communityproblem not borne solely by the individuals in-

volved. This view leads to a broad, and moreobjective framework for assessing traffic safetyproblems, developing countermeasures, and es-tablishing priorities among them.

There is l i t t le deba te over the cause o f crashes. The majority of traffic crashes arecaused by the vehicle drivers, although road-way and vehicle features may contribute to thecause of about one-third of all crashes. (Seetable 88. ) The issue of establishing prioritiescenters on whether safety stra tegies shouldfocus on crash prevention or crash severityreduction. Crash prevention stra tegies apply

c o u n te rme a su re s to e l imin a te th e c a u se o f crashes, thus their occurrence. Crash severityreduction strategies seek to prevent or minimizeinjury when a crash occurs.

Table 88.—Traffic Crash Causation

Estimated percentageElement of crash causationVehicle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-12Highway . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-30Driver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70-90

Violation . . . . . . . . . . . 20-30Decision . . . . . . . . . . . 20-30Attention. . . . . . . . . . . 40-60

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety

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It is difficult to find effective countermeasuresfor the driver-related crash causation categoriesshown in table 88. The effectiveness of trafficlaws in preventing improper driver behavior ap-pears to be limited, and the magnitude and ex-tent of law enforcement is subject to public ap-proval. Various forms of driver education andtraining might reduce the rate of decision errors,

but the degree of improvement attainable bysuch measures has not been demonstrated.

The largest factor of crash causation, driverinattention, also does not lend itself to practicalcountermeasures. Driving, especially in theUnited States, is a relatively simple, repetitivetask requiring a low level of conscious decision-making. Highways and vehicles have been de-signed to make the driving task easier and morecomfortable. It is likely that human error willcontinue to be a major cause of traffic crashes,unless ways are found to augment the perform-

ance of the driver with automatic control sys-tems.

The vehicle factors that are the primarycauses of crashes are defects in brakes, wheels,and tires. The leading highway features that

Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and findings q 203

cause or contribute to crashes are obstructedview and slick roads.

The mechanisms that cause injury and death,and the types of bodily damage incurred incrashes, are well known. The chief mechanismis abrupt decelerative dissipation of kineticenergy in crashes. Vehicle occupants sustain injury when striking the interior of the vehicle

during a crash, Passengers ejected from vehiclesin collisions suffer injury from impact with thevehicle and the ground, highway, or other struc-tures. Pedestrians and cyclists are injured bystriking, or being struck by, the vehicle and bythe subsequent impact with the roadway orground. The method to reduce injury is tospread the impact forces over a greater surfacearea and a longer time, thus reducing the sever-ity of the contact. l4~ Crash severity reductionstrategies can be effective, and reasonablyamenable to evaluation. Highway design fea-tures, if properly maintained, would remain

throughout the l ife of the highway. Safetydesign criteria for motor vehicles, once estab-lished, would also be long-lasting.

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In summary, for long-range determination of safety priorities, an analytical framework thatembraces a ll loss-reduction stra tegies is ap-propriate. Each safety strategy must be evalu-ated for its potential effects, impacts, andfeasibility of implementation. Thus, a com-prehensive analysis of strategies is required todetermine priorities among them.

Policy Framework

Figure 44 shows a policy framework based ona functional subdivision of the automobiletransportation system. This framework helpsidentify policies and related issues applicable tosafety countermeasures. The framework speci-fies a programmatic approach to each compo-nent of the system. Issues are related to pro-grams in hierarchical levels. An abbreviatedlisting of policy areas is shown under the boxesrepresenting system elements in figure 44. Apolicy analysis f low diagram is depicted infigure 45.

Highway Design

Highway design and condition can contributeto both the frequency and severity of trafficcrashes. The National Highway Safety Needs Report

15 (hereafter referred to as the “Needs”report), identified 37 safety countermeasures,including 19 related to highway design features.Tables 89, 90, and 91 list these countermeas-ures, and rank them by cost-effectiveness, costto implement, and potential to forestall deathand injury. Table 92 shows the 19 highwaydesign-related countermeasures.

The “Needs” report estimated that these 19highway improvements could save about 34,000

lives and a million injury-producing accidentsover a 10-year period. The actual benefits of these countermeasures could be even greaterbecause most would be maintained well over 10years and would continue to accrue the benefitsof reduced death and injury.

Photo Credii U S Department of 7ransportation

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Figure 44.—issues, Policies, and Strategies for Traffic Safety

1. Involvement ~

Safety of the

I

I I Ir

It

HighwaysUser Support

vehicies performance systems

I I I

I

II I standards I

I II J

I I I“

Roadway Roadside Information

Vehicle!dentif!catlon

& security

-maintenance-maintenance -hazard

treatment

r,

1

Maintenance

—voluntatr

criteria

-diagnosis

-registration —vehicle ID-theft

protectionvisibility

-braking -component: -safety-tires management shape & components

materials —areas: components

or areasmaterials

control

-fuel system

I

Retrofit

-recall —after market

I

I I

-programcoordination

& evaluation

maintenance -traffic laws

servicing

treatment

renewal--crash-revoked

drivers

a staff

education

speed information

maneuvers measures-repast

offenders

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1. , ‘

‘. . , - . . . .

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Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings q

Table 89.—Ranking of Countermeasures by Decreasing Cost-Effectiveness in Present Value DollarsPer Total Fatalities Forestalled— 10-Year Total

2 0 7

Dollars perFatal i ties cost fatality

forestalled ($ mill ions) forestalledCountermeasure (A) (B) (c)

1.

2.3.

4.5.6.7.89

1011121314.15.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24.25.26.27.28.29.30.31.32.33.34.

35.

36.37.

Mandatory safety belt usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Highway construction and maintenance practices . . . . . . . . . . . . .Upgrade bicycle and pedestrian safety curriculum offerings . . . . .

Nationwide 55 mph speed limit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Driver improvement schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Regulatory and warning signs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Guardrail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pedestrian safety information and education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Driver improvement schools for young offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motorcycle rider safety helmets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motorcycle lights-on practice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Impact-absorbing roadside safety devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Breakaway sign and lighting supports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Selective traffic enforcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Combined alcohol safety action countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . .Citizen assistance of crash victims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pedestrian and bicycle visibility enhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tire and braking system safety critical inspection—selective . . . .Warning letters to problem drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Clear roadside recovery area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Upgrade education and training for beginning drivers . . . . . . . . . . .Intersection sight distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Combined emergency medical countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Upgrade traffic signals and systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Roadway lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Traffic channelization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Periodic motor vehicle inspection—current practice. . . . . . . . . . . .Pavement markings and delineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Selective access control for safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bridge widening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Railroad-highway grade-crossing protection(automatic gates(excluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Paved or stabilized shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Roadway alinement and gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

89,000459649

31,9002,4703,6703,160

4903,7401,520

779692

1,15065

6,7803,2507,560

13,0003,750

5291,4404,591

192533

3,050468

8,0003,400

759645

1,840237

1,3001,330

276928590

$ 45.09.2

13.2

676.053.0

125.0108.0

18.0158.069.838.536.361.2

5.2735.0379.0

1,010.02,130.0

784.0121.0332.0

1,150.050.5

151.01,170.0

196.04,300.02,080.0

710.01,080.03,890.0

639.03,780.04,600.0

974.05,380.04,530.0

$ 50620,00020,400

21,20021,40034,00034,10036,80042,20046,00049,40052,50053,30080,600

108,000116,000133,000164,000209,000228,000230,000251,000263,000284,000385,000420,000538,000610,000936,000

1,680,0002,120,0002,700,0002,910,0003,460,000

3,530,0005,800,0007,680,000

SOURCE US Department of Transportation Office of the Secretary, National Highway Safety Needs Report, April 1976

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Table 90 .—Ranking of Countermeasures by IncreasingCosts of Implementation in Present Value Dollars—10-Year Total

Countermeasurecost

($ million)

1. Motorcycle lights-on practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. Highway construction and maintenance practices, . . . . . . .

3 . Upgrade bicycle and pedestrian safetycurriculum offerings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4. Pedestrian safety information and education . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Driver improvement schools for young offenders . . . . . . . . .6. Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7. Mandatory safety belt usage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8. Warning letters to problem drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9. Driver improvement schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10. Motorcycle rider safety helmets . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . .11. Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .12. Guardrail . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . .13, Median barriers . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

14. Regulatory and warning signs ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15. Clear roadside recovery area , ., ... ... . . . . . ... , . . . .16. Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17. Intersection sight distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18. Pedestrian and bicycle visibility enhancement . . . . . . . .19. Breakaway sign and lighting supports . . . . . . . . . ... . . . .20. Pavement markings and delineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

21. Nationwide 55 mph speed limit . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . .22, Roadway Iighting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23. Impact-absorbing roadside safety devices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .24. Citizen assistance of crash victims. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25, Railroad-highway grade-crossing protection

(automatic gates excluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26. Selective traffic enforcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27, Traffic channelization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28. Tire and braking system safety critical inspection—

selective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29. Upgrade education and training for

beginning drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30. Upgrade traffic signals and systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31. Combined alcohol safety action countermeasures. . . . . . . .32. Selective access control for safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33. Periodic motor vehicle inspection—current practice. . . . .34. Combined emergency medical countermeasures ... . . . .35. Roadway alinement and gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36. Bridge widening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37. Paved or stabilized shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 5.2

9.2

13.218.0

36.038.545.0

50.553.061.269.8

108.0121.0125.0151.0158.0196.0

332.0379.0639.0

676.0710.0735.0784.0

974.01,010.01,080.0

1,150.0

1,170.02,080.02,130.03,780.0

3,890.04,300.04,530.04,600.05,380.0

$41,600.0

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Ch. 7—Safety Issues j Policies, and Findings . 209

Table 91 .—Ranking of Countermeasures by Decreasing PotentialTo Forestall Fatalities and Injury Accidents— 10-Year Total

Fatal it ies Injury accidentsforestal led forestalled

Countermeasure (A) (B)

1. Mandatory safety belt usage . . .-- --- - --- ---

2. Nationwide 55 mph speed limit .3. Combined alcohol safety action

countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . .4. Combined emergency medical

countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . .5. Selective traffic enforcement . .6. Impact-absorbing roadside

7.

8

91011

12

13

14

1516

1718

1920

21.22.23. Wrong-way entry avoidance

techniques , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24. Roadway lighting. . . . . . . . . . . . .25. Driver improvement schools foryoung offenders . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26. Upgrade bicycle and pedestriansafety curriculum offerings . . . .

27. Traffic channelization . . . . . . . . .28. Roadway alinement and

gradient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29. Clear roadside recovery area . . .30. Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31. Pedestrian safety information

and education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32. Intersection sight distance . . . .33. Highway construction and

maintenance practices. . . . . . . .34. Railroad-highway grade-cross-

protection (automatic gatesexcluded) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35. Pavement markings anddelineators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36. Warning letters to problemdrivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

37. Motorcycle lights-on practice . .

safety devices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tire and braking system safetycritical inspection—selective . .Citizen assistance of crashvictims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Skid resistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ReguIatory and warning signs . .Upgrade traffic signals andsystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Breakaway sign and lightingsupports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Guardrail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Upgrade education and trainingfor beginning drivers. . . . . . . . . .Driver improvement schools . . .Periodic motor vehicle inspec-tion—current practice . . . . . . . .Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . .Pedestrian and bicycle visibiIityenhancement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bridge widening. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Selective access control forsafety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motorcycle rider safety helmetsPaved or stabilized shoulders . .

89,00031,900

13,000

8,0007,560

6,780

4,590

3,7503,7403,670

3,400

3,2503,160

3,0502,470

1,8401,520

1,4401,330

1,3001,150

928

779759

692

649645

590533529

490468

459

276

237

19265

3,220,000415,000

153,000

146,000296,000

158,000

80,000

95,00043,000

33,000

27,00052,800

31,00013,000

71,90015,300

24,20051,000

50,30014,40035,800

3,29029,600

27,000

11,20031,500

23,00020,700

2,740

19,20018,300

18,000

1,080

9,210

3,7601,680

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Table 92.—Countermeasures Related to Highway Design—10 Year Total(dollars in millions of 1977 constant dollars)

Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimateddeaths injuries societal costs cost of

forestalled, forestalled, forestalled, countermeasurecumulative cumulative cumulative cumulative

1.

2.3.

4.5.6.

7.8.9.

10.11.12.13.14.15.16.

17.18.19.

Regulatory and warning signs . . . . . . . . .Guardrail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Skid resistance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge rails and parapets . . . . . . . . . . . . .Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques.Impact-absorbing roadside safetydevices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Breakaway sign and lighting supports . .Median barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Clear roadside recovery area . . . . . . . . . .Intersection sight distance. . . . . . . . . . . .Upgrade traffic signals and systems. . . .Roadway lighting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Traffic channelization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pavement marking and delineators . . . . .Selective access control for safety . . . . .Railroad-highway grade-crossingprotection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bridge widening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Roadway alinement and gradient. . . . . . .

3,6706,830

10,570

12,09012,869

19,64922,89923,42823,96124,42927,82928,58829,23329,47030,770

31,046

32,37633,30433,894

371,800509,100

1,016,100

1,055,9001,064,500

1,457,3001,805,5001,876,7001,930,5001,978,1002,323,9002,400,9002,482,8002,506,7002,637,500

2,640,300

2,772,9002,866,0002,925,800

$ 2,6334,2047,375

8,0318,322

12,13514,47014,91715,29915,63618,08118,62619,15219,32220,251

20,353

21,29921,96122,384

$ 250466782

922999

2,4693,2273,4693,7714,1638,3239,743

11,90313,18120,741

22,689

31,88942,64951,709

SOURCE OTA, using U S Department of Transportation, Off Ice of the Secretary, National Highway Safety Needs Report, April 1976.

There would be a sizable savings associated costs forestalled w ould be $11.1 billion. Thewith forestalled death and injury. For the 10- total societal costs forestalled would be $22.3year period, using the cost data in table 82, th e billion in 1977 constant dollars and 1977 costs.social costs forestalled would be $ll.2 billion (See table 92.)for 34,000 dea ths . Assuming 2.6 injuries perin ju ry-producing crash tha t is fo res ta lled and an The to ta l cost o f imp lement ing these 19average injury cost of $3,809, the total injury highway d esign features is estimated in the

Photo Credit Department Of Transportation

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“Needs” report to be $26 billion over 10 years inpresent value dollars (from 1974 estimates).This cost estimate converted to 1977 constantdollars is $49 billion over 10 years. If this costwere spent evenly over a 10-year period, therewould be approximately 15-percent additionalburden on the highway-financing structure(about 4 mills, or four-tenths of a cent, for every100 veh ic le miles t rave led) . The p r inc ipa lbeneficiaries of this transfer of funds would bethe State and local highway departments andthe highway design and construction industry,which would receive increased employment andrevenues.

Cost-benefit comparison is hampered by in-adequacy of data and by uncertainty about theirinterpretation. For example, the cost of an in-

jury forestalled may not equal the average costof an injury, but instead might be the net cost of replacing a severe injury with a minor injuryplus the cost of a minor injury foresta lled,However, the available data can be organized toshow how the cost-benefit analysis might applyto program development. Table 92 contains the19 highway design features ranked in order of decreasing cost-effectiveness. The cumulativeexpenditures are tabulated, a long with thecumulative societal costs forestalled. A hypo-thetical, economic-oriented, cost-benefit ratio of 1:1 occurs at about item 15 on the Iist of 19items.

The energy impacts of these highway im-provements would be primarily in the use of ad-

ditional construction energy. Mobility would beenhanced by safer highways, but highwaycapacity, speed, etc., would not change much asa result of these features. Environmental im-pacts would result from the use of wider rights-of-way, and the clearance of trees, rock out-cropping, etc. Landowners of adjacent prop-erties also would be impacted in some cases.Roadside right-of-way regulations now permitthe installation of utility poles, which wouldhave to be moved. Alternatively, the uti l i tylines could be put underground.

Vehicle Design Features

The current Federal Motor Vehicle SafetyStandards and proposed additions or amend-ments were presented earlier, in tables 84 a n d

85. There is some evidence that these safetystandards are saving lives and reducing injuriesand that benefits exceed costs. Ib The passiverestraint standard, effective for all cars by the1984 model year, has also been shown to becost-effective. 17 When the fleet is fully equippedwith passive restra ints in the 1990’s, D O Testimates that about 9,OOO lives will be savedannually in addition to the estimated 3,oOO livessaved annually through the use of seat belts.(See table 93. ) Further evaluation of other Fed-eral Motor Vehicle Safety Standards is in prog-ress, and some modifications are expected bythe early 1980’s, in accordance with a 5-yearplan recently released by DOT. (See table 85. )

The long-range objective in vehicle safety isto have on the market an affordable automobilethat offers high levels of safety, damage resist-ance in low-speed collisions, and protectivefeatures to mitigate pedestrian and cyclist injury. The Research Safety Vehicle (RSV) pro-

gram of DOT is demonstrating that such a goalis achievable within the state of current technol-ogy ,18 Figure 46 shows two versions of vehiclesdesigned under this program.

Table 94 shows requirements for three levelsof crashworthiness. Research Safety Vehicles,such as those illustrated in figure 46, are ex-ceeding Level II and approaching Level III crash-worthiness specifications. The results of theRSV program to date indicate that a four- orfive-passenger vehicle, approaching Level 111 re-qu irem ents a nd m e et in g fu el-eco no m y an d

emission standards, can be manufactured forabout $800 more than a similar vehicle meetingtoday’s safety standards. ” Further work in theprogram is a imed at reducing that cost to ,perhaps, as low as $4oo.

Accurately determining the necessary level of vehicle crashworthiness, occupant protection,and crash avoidance features for the vehicle

Research Safety Vehicle Program

poration, Report Nos. 802250, 8022.51, 802252, February 1977.

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Table 93

Part A.—Occupant Crash Protection System Effectiveness Estimates’

Lap and Passive beltshoulder Air cushion and knee

A IS injury level Lap belt belt Air cushion and lap belt bolster Knee bolster1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.30 0 0.15 0.20 0.062 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 .57 .22 .33 .40 .103 .30 .59 .30 .45 .45 .15

4-6 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : .40 .60 .40 .66 .50 .15

Part B.— Effectiveness of Occupant Crash Protection Systemsb

Fatalitiesprevented per

yearLap and shoulder (15 percent) and lap (5 percent) belts (nominal projection). . .Lap and shoulder (35 percent) and lap (5 percent) belts (optimistic projection).Lap and shoulder belt (70 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lap and shoulder belt (100 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lap belt (100 percent usage). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Driver-on I y air cushion:c

Nominal projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Optimistic projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Full-front air cushion:

Nominal projectional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Optimistic projection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Passive belts:Nominal projection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Optimistic projecting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3,0006,300

11,50016,30010,900

9,60011,500

12,10013,500

9,80010,700

Injuriesprevented peryear (A IS 2-5)

39,00086,000

162,000231,000

96,000

86,000107,000

104,000115,000

117,000129,000

30, 1977

Achieving high levels of vehicle occupantprotection could reduce the deaths and injuriesof vehicle occupants beyond the projections of the lifesaving potential of passive restraints. Ithas been estimated that the addition of Level IIcrashworthiness would increase the effective-ness of the Air Cushion Restraint System by 30to 40 percent. (See table 95. ) The ability to’miti-gate pedestrian and pedacycle death and injurythrough front-end design modifications still re-quires technical examination.

The impacts of the evolution of much safercars would be reflected primarily in the price of new cars to the consumer. Over the last decade,vehicle safety improvements have added ane s t ima te d $250 to the retail price of a 1978

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Table 94.—Vehicle Crashworthiness and Damageability Levelsa

Crashworthiness Crash avoidance Damageability

Level 1. . . . . . . . . . .

Level II . . . . . . . . . .

All FMVSSsb pertaining tocrashworthiness whichare effective for MY 1975cars and those which willbecome effective duringthe 1976-80 period (pro-tection for front, rear

side, rollover, fire), 30mph frontal performance.

Same as Level I plus 40mph passive frontal pro-tection, 20 mph passiveside protect ion andegress.

Level Ill. . . . . . . . . . Same as Level I plus pas-sive protection for—

Impacts:

All FM VSSSC pertaining tocrash avoidance which areeffective for MY 1975cars and those which willbecome effective duringthe 1976-80 period (brak-ing performance, lighting,

field of view, and other).

Same as Level I plus allweather brake perform-ance (anti lock brakes).

Same as Level II plus runf I at tires.

Both Levels I & II correspondto existing standards (Part581 requiring that front andrear bumper sustain 5 mphimpacts without damage tovehicle except for m i nordents on bumpers).

Same as Level I for impactspeeds up to 10 mph.

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

50 mph flat barrier fron-tal (O-45) angle50 mph narrow barrier100 mph car to car al in-

ed100 mph car to car off-set45 mph car to car side30 mph rollover50 mph car to car rearEgress, all test condi-tionsNo fuel leakage, all testcond i t i ons -

Table 95.—Effectiveness of Level IICrashworthiness With Air Cushion

Restraint Systems

automobile21

with no observable negative effecton vehicle sales. The average new car buyernow spends $750 to $1,000 on comfort and con-venience options.

22 This ind ica tes tha t add i-

tional vehicle safety, costing perhaps $4OO t o$800, may be within acceptable limits.

Fatality Injuryreduction reduction(percent) a (percent)

Air cushion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 20Air cushion and lap belt. . . . . . 50 24Level II and air cushion . . . . . . 59 23Level ll, air cushion, and

lap belt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 27

Vehicles in Use

The primary policy consideration for vehiclesin use is mandatory periodic motor vehicle in-spections. Vehicle-in-use safety inspection pro-

grams were in effect in many States even beforeenactment of the Highway Safety Act of 1966. It

“U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traf-f ic Safety Administration, The Contributions of Automobile Regulation, Preliminary Report, June 1978.

211 bid

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has been shown that bad tires and bad brakescontribute to crashes (up to 5 percent of totalcrashes) .23 The actual number of cars on theroad operating with inadequately maintainedbrakes and worn tires may be much higher, 24

The impetus for uniform inspection programsmay come from efforts to meet emissions goalssince including a safety inspection in such a pro-cedure is logical.

The effect of current inspection programs inreducing crashes, injury, and death has not beenclearly demonstrated. Any upgrading or broad-ening of such programs would not have the sup-port of reliable effectiveness data. The primaryimpact is cost to the consumer for repair andand replacement of parts, particularly in addi-tion to repairs to meet fuel-economy and emis-sions requirements.

User Performance

In the Highway Safety Needs Report, t h eth ree s tra tegies with the h ighest l ifesav ingpotential are related to driver behavior. Theyare increased seatbelt usage, the 55 mph speedlimit, and alcohol countermeasures.

Seat belts have been required in all passengercars since 1964. However, the current usage rateis only about 20 percent (15 percent lap andtorso, 5 percent lap only). Even at this lowdegree of use, it is estimated that about 3,OO O

lives are saved annually by the use of belts. It is

also estimated that an increase to a 70-percentlap and shoulder belt usage rate would save anaddi t iona l 8,500 lives per year and prevent162,000 injuries of severity 2 to 5 on the AIScode. (See table 93. )

With passive restraints entering the fleet inthe 1980’s, seat belts and seat belt laws may notbe as important in the long run. However, pas-sive restraints will not be widespread in thevehicle fleet until the 1990’s. Also, 25 percent of

‘3U. S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traf-fic Safety Administration, Tn-1.ezlel Study of the Causes of Traffic

Accidents F~rral Report, Volume I: Causal Factor Tabulations andAssessments, prepared by Institute for Research in Public Safety,Indiana University, R e p o r t N o . DOT-HS-034-3-S35 -77-TAC,Mar. 31,1977,

“]oseph I. Innes, Vlabll]ty ot t h e Nlotor L’ehlcle Dlagnost]c In -spectl(~n Concep t Demons t ra ted b}’ NHT SA, F/ f t )~ lt~tc’rtzutlo)lalC“(lncKrET~~ OF ? A l{f(l}t)(~t~tt’ SOfctv – Pr c~,-l’t’~i~t~<g. ( \\’ashlngtc~n,11 C L] S. Department ot Transportation” ~

the vehicle fleet is composed of light trucks, apercentage that is expected to rise. Currentlythere is no requirement for passive restraints invehicles other than passenger cars, althoughsuch a regulation for light trucks is under con-sideration by DOT.

Two types of passive restraint systems arebeing considered to meet the Federal standard:

the air cushion restraint system (ACRS, or airbag) and the passive seat belt. The ACRS usedwith a lap belt is considered to offer the bestoverall protection, although the passive beltsystem is also quite effective. The passive seatbelt is a “coercive” system, in that the user mustagree to leave the belt in place. The passive beltscan be easily disconnected.

There are several approaches that may raisethe level of seat belt usage: educational or pro-motional campaigns, economic incentives, andmandated belt use.

Promotional campaigns, the approach nowused by the Federal Government, do not appearto have much potential. Incentives such as in-surance credits, or other economic rewards,have not been tried in this country. Mandatorybelt-use laws are in effect in 16 foreign coun-tries, 2 Canadian provinces, and Puerto Rico.The success of these laws varies, primarily de-pending on social acceptance and the level of en-forcement. (See table 96. )

One of the best examples of mandatory beltuse laws is that of the State of Victoria, Aus-

tralia. In 1970, surveys showed safety belt userates in Australia to be comparable to those inthe United States—about 20 percent. After thelaw became effective in January 1971, the usagerate rose to about 50 percent immediately ,despite an amnesty on prosecution against of-fenders. When enforcement and prosecutionwere implemented, the use rate rose to an aver-age of 75 percent in the metropolitan area of Victoria .25 By early 1972, following the reportedsuccess in reducing injuries and deaths in Vic-toria , a ll of the other Australian sta tes hadenacted similar laws. The reported results are

mixed but favorable. Table 96 shows a 25-per-cent reduction in deaths and a 20-percent reduc-tion in injuries in Australia from 1972 to 1974.

“R, Ungers, “The Introduction of Compulsory Seat Belt Wear-ing Laws in Australia and Their Effect, ” Proceedings of the Sc/er~-

tific Co) Iference on Traffic Safety (Ottawa, Canada: 1974).

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Country

Cze ch o s lo va k ia .J a p a n

Max $20

Max $200

$10-$20

N e w Z e a l a n d

France

P u e r t o RI C O . , $10 July 197330/0

360/0S w e d e n Max $100Usual $10

$15$1.50-$15.00

L u x e m b o u r gN e t h e r l a n d s ,

$5-$12.50$0.20-$120

F i n l a n d ,

Norway .,

None

None

3 Yes

o Yes

I s r a e l . , . , Max $110 3 Yes

$8

None

$20-100

1-2 Yes

1 Yes

1 Yes

May 197535-500/0

$1.50$10-$20 o-1 None 190/o

usage law was put into effect in 1975 and metOther examples of foreign experience withseat belt laws are not as encouraging. In PuertoRico, the usage rate rose from 3 percent to only

25 percent between 1973 and 1976. In Japan, thelaws are not enforced and the usage rate isreported to be 8 percent. On the other hand,Norway, with no enforcement, has usage ratesof 61 percent in rural areas and 32 percent in ur-ban areas. In Sweden, the mandatory seat belt

with a high degree of public acceptance, re-sulting in high usage rates. Approximately 80

percent of front seat occupants in Sweden wereobserved to wear seat belts.Foreign experience indicates that mandatory

seat belt use laws can be an effective safetymeasure. However, foreign experiences tells lit-tle about their probable success in this country.

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Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings . 217

It is clear that the use of seat belts saves livesand reduces injury, and mandatory seat beltlaws with reasonable levels of enforcement

would probably increase the usage rate some-what. However, no State in the United Stateshas enacted legislation requiring seat belt use.Public opinion seems to be against such a law,which is regarded as an undue infringement of individual freedom.

Speed

The national 55 mph speed limit went into ef-

fect in early 1974. There were 9,000 fewer trafficdeaths in 1974 compared with 1973, a 17-per-cent reduction. The average speed on rural in-tersta te highways before 1974 was above 6 5

mph. In 1974 and 1975, the average rural in-terstate speed dropped to below 58 mph,

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Many studies have examined the relationshipbetween the drop in fatalities and the speedlim it, a n d v a r i ou s co n cl u s io n s h a v e b e enreached. The evidence seems to indicate thatreduced highway speeds contributed to thereduction in traffic deaths, but the magnitude of this contribution is subject to debate. Manyresearchers believe that about 50 percent of thereduction in deaths in 1974 was due to the 55

mph speed l imi t .26

DOT data show that themost significant drop in fatality rates occurredon highway systems most affected by the re-duced speed limit—the Interstate System andrural primary roads. However, other factorscould be involved, as evidenced by the fact thaturban pedestrian deaths also dropped about 17percent from 1973 to 1974. It is unlikely that ur-ban pedestrian fatalities were affected by thespeed limit change.

DOT data indicate that in 1976 and 1977 theaverage speed on the highways, and the percent-

age of drivers operating their vehicles above theposted speed limit, increased steadily over the1974 and 1975 figures.

27 The speed limit is ac-

tually a State law, and enforcement of the law isa matter for the States. There is lack of supportfor strict enforcement in many State legis-latures, and enforcement places an increased im-position on enforcement agencies. DOT claimsthe public has indicated support for the speedlimit. 28 However, the public’s most convincingexpression on the matter is how fast they drive.One apparent factor in noncompliance is thatthe original intent of the law—to save gaso-

line—is not perceived as necessary.In October 1977, the Secretary of Transporta-

tion recommended that the President seek fromCongress dedicated funding assistance for Statespeed limit enforcement, and the authority toestablish compliance standards .29 In the recentlysigned Highway Safety Act of 1978, Congress

‘“U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Admin-i s t r a t i o n , Sa f e t y Aspects of th~ National 5.5 MPH Speed Limit,November IQ76.

‘“U.S. Depar tmen t o f T ranspor ta t ion , Report to th ~ Presulenfon Compliance With the 5,5 MPH Speed Limit, Oct. 14, 1977, andpersonal communication with the Office of Statistics and Analysis,

U.S. DOT.‘nIbid,

“Ibid.

authorized $50 million for the States for eachfiscal year from 1979 through 1982 along with acompliance schedule, penalties, and incentivesfor enforcement of the speed limit.

The debate on speed limits and safety is notover. The equilibrium of the reduced speed limithas not been reached, and most conclusions onthe subject can be considered only tentative.Educational and promotional campaigns to con-vince people to drive slower for safety and fueleconomy have suffered, and will probably con-tinue to suffer, from credibility problems. In-creased enforcement levels may produce a pub-lic backlash.

The safety aspects of the 55 mph speed limitneed to be addressed from a broader base of ex-perience. Speed is relevant to safety primarily inthe context of a crash. The data regardingspeeds at which crashes occur are inadequate.The DOT Crash Recorder Program, designed tocollect this data, was initiated many years ago

and has consistently failed to gain congressionalsupport. Speeding in the context of “recklessdriving” can also contribute to the cause of acrash. Trying to enforce speed limits in generaldoes not readily address this problem.

There is also the question of why motor vehi-cles need to have the capacity for high speed.Data on traffic behavior under constrained top-speed conditions is l imited, a lthough manyvehicles on the road essentially have a limitedtop speed of 60 to 70 mph. Vehicle engine sizesare becoming smaller as the country moves into

the “economy” era. Still, top-speed limitationwould be considered by many to be an infringe-ment on personal (and technological) freedoms,and would inhibit manufacturers from using“power” and “speed” as a common part of salescampaigns. These arguments, however, over-look the consideration that drivers of the nextgeneration may feel differently about automo-biles and driving.

Interestingly, top speed for electric vehicles isa primary constraint and is traded-off with vehi-cle range. If electric vehicles became widelyused, top-speed limitation would be an inherentfeature of the automobile transportation sys-tem.

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Support Systems

Support systems include data collection, con-struction and maintenance, procedures, trafficlaws, enforcement, insurance, product liability,and emergency medical service, Many of theseitems have significant potential for safety im-provement policy in the short and long term.Some of these improvements are listed as pro-

spective countermeasures in tables 89 to 91.

Improved con st ru ct ion a n d m a in t en a ncepractices are shown to be very cost-effective.Improved emergency medical countermeasurescould potentially save many lives. In 1975, itwas reported that 47 percent of traffic fatalitiesdied either en route to the hospital (6 percent),in the emergency room (35 percent) or in thehospital (6 percent) .3’ Emergency medical serv-ice is an important element in highway safety,both in appropriate trauma treatment and rapidevacuation to an appropriate facility.

Goals

Specific goals for vehicle emissions and fueleconomy have shown themselves to be usefuland effective. It is important to consider theutility of specific and quantitative goals as away to promote future traffic safety. Section401 of the Highway Safety Act of 1966 statesthat “the Secretary is authorized and directed toassist and cooperate . . . to increase highwaysafety. ” Section 402 of the same law states that:

“Each State shall have a highway safety pro-gram . . . designed to reduce traffic accidentsa n d d e at h s, in ju r ie s, a n d p r o p er t y d am a geresulting therefrom. ” The preface to the N a-tional Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966 states: “That Congress hereby declares thatthe purpose of this act is to reduce traffic ac-cidents and deaths and injuries to personsresulting from traffic accidents. ” The questionarises, however, whether these goals, as writ-ten, provide sufficient stimuli for achievementand whether some of these stated objectiveswould have been met if it had not been for the

17-percent reduction in fatalities that occurredin 1974 for other reasons.

In 1968, just 2 years after enactment of themajor safety legisla tion, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare issued a reportof the Secretary’s Advisory Committee on High-way Safety.

37 In discussing the re la tively un-

charted areas of the highway safety field, the

report stated:T h e r e d o n o t e x i s t e v e n t h e m o s t r u d i m e n t a r y

s t a n d a r d s o f p e r f o r m a n c e b y w h i c h t o m e a s u r e

a c h i e v e m e n t . T h i s s u g g e s t s t h a t t r a f f i c s a f e t y

m i g h t w e l l b e o n e o f t h e f i r s t a r e a s o f n a t i o n a l e f -

f o r t t o b e m a d e t h e s u b j e c t o f a c a r e fu l l y

e l a b o r a te d a n d c o m p r e h e n s i v e s e t o f n a t i on a l

goa ls . At that point it will become possib le tomake d epend able calculations as to w hat alloca-tion of resources will be required to achievegoals that have been set . . . it is in the context

of such national goals the research and program priorities should be established. “3

8

The data collection and analysis processnecessary to formulate specific goals and assessprogress toward reaching them is within the cur-rent state-of-the-art. Data now collected by theS ta te s , a n d th e p re se n t (F ARS ) a n d fu tu re(NASS) data collection programs of the DOTmay be adequate for such a purpose. But theadequacy is not universally accepted, and theoutcome of the continuing debate will , bynecessity, lead to improving the data. The dataare most limited in the areas of selecting andevaluating safety countermeasures that might beused to meet specified goals, Also, there is con-

siderably less data on traffic injuries than ontraffic deaths.

The difficulty with safety goals is in the proc-ess o f se tt ing them, and the f ramework , theplan, and the lines of responsibility for achiev-ing them. Safety goals could be expressed eitheras some target for reduction of total deaths, injuries, and property damage resulting from ac-cidents or as a scheduled reduction in the ratesof deaths, injuries, and property damage basedon exposure to risk (e. g., miles of travel or yearsof vehicle occupant exposure).

1968,

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Ch. 7—Safety Issues, Policies, and Findings . 221

Such goals could be set either for the Nationas a whole or for each State. Alternatively,States could set their own goals in consultationwith the Federal Government. The national goalwould thus become the sum of State goals. Safe-ty goals could be established either systemwideor for each element of the automobile transpor-tation system (i. e., vehicles, highways, andhighway users) and for specified subclasses

within each element. For example, there mightbe separate goals for large and small passengercars, or there might be separate goals for eachclass of roads.

until now, has been inadequate or nonexistent. 39

The nature of the problem is such that theachievement of goals will require participationby all parties to improve all elements of thetransportation system. Goals could provide adirect stimulus for coordinated action. This, inturn, could help to resolve the stifling negotia-tions on implementation of technological im-provement. Further, setting goals and formulat-

ing plans to achieve them would focus attentionon the levels of expenditures needed and on thepayoffs from these investments—both in mon-etary terms and in the quality of life.

Safety goals could provide a focus for long-range, comprehensive safety planning which,

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Chapter 8.— MOBILITY ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

225Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .226Present Policy and Projections. . . . ............227issues and Policy Alternatives . ...............228

The Amount and Distribution of Mobility .. ...228

Reducing the Need and Desire to Travel .. ....234Analysis of increased Mobility Policies. . . ......236Effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........237Impacts . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241

Analysis of improved Accessibility Policies. ....242Effects . . . . . . . . . . ........................243Impacts . . . . . . . . .........................246

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

97. Spectrum of TSM Actions . ...............22998. Characteristics of Automated Guideway

Transit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...23299. Assumed Highway Expenditures, IncreasedMobility Case. , . .......................237

100. Vehicle Miles of Travel and Speeds,Increased Mobility Case . ................237

Page

101. Transit Financing Assumptions, increasedMobility Case. . . ..................,....239

102. Transit Service Levels, increasedMobility Case. . . .......................239

103. Projected Annual Transit Ridership,Increased Mobility Case . ................240

104. Auto Ownership and Other Impacts ofincreased Mobility Policies. . .............240

105. Automobile Energy Demand, increasedMobility Case . . . . . . ....................241

106. Air Quality impacts of IncreasedMobility Policies. . ......................241

107. Average Annual Displacements Due to High-way Construction, Increased Mobility Case .242

108. Transit Financing Assumptions, ImprovedAccessibility Case . .....................245

109. Transit Service Levels, ImprovedAccessibility Case. . ....................245

110. Projected Annual Transit Ridership,Improved Accessibility Case . ............246

111. Auto Ownership and Other impacts of

Improved Accessibility Policies . ..........247112. Automobile Energy Demand, improvedAccessibility Case. . ....................248

113. Air Quality impacts of ImprovedAccessibility Policies . ..................248

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SUMMARY

Past and present Government policies havepromoted increased personal mobility as a prin-cipal national objective. The automobile is themain means of travel for all but the longest in-tercity trips and trips within the densest urbanareas. The automobile, however, does not wellserve the needs of some handicapped, elderly,young, and poor persons, for whom remedial

policies are required.It is projected that auto travel will grow by 75

percent between 1975 and 2000. Stricter fueleconomy standards, reduced highway construc-tion, and auto disincentives currently pro-grammed to conserve petroleum and improveurban air quality will have little effect on theamount of auto travel. Only a severe petroleumshortage or gasoline rationing could bring aboutmajor reductions in auto use. In the long run—50 years or so—changes in urban developmentpolicies to channel growth into “high accessibil-ity” areas would also be effective by reducing

the need to travel. Changes in lifestyle or devel-opment of telecommunications as a substitutefor travel could also have significant impacts onthe auto system, but probably not before 2000.

Under current policies, congestion—particu-larly on urban highways and streets—is ex-pected to increase substantially. By 2000, urbandrivers will encounter congested conditions 3times more frequently than today. To avoid thiscongestion and maintain present levels of serv-ice on the Nation’s highways through the year2000 would require construction expenditures

more than 60 percent higher than those forecastfor the Base Case. Highway maintenance willalso continue to be an important concern. TheNation’s highways will deteriorate greatly ,unless strong Federal initiatives are taken to in-crease maintenance.

Consideration was given to several measuresto improve mobility. Major expansion of publictransit assistance could increase transit ridershipby as much as 55 percent in urban areas if ac-companied by appropriate auto disincentives.Such a program would cost the Federal Govern-ment more than $7.2 billion annually (in 1975dollars) —about 5 times more than the 1975 ex-

penditures of $1.5 billion. This program wouldalso reduce State and local transit burdens in2000 from the Base Case projection of $4.9 bil-lion to $1.9 billion per year, close to today’slevels.

Transportation system management tech-niques could be used in the short run to improvetraffic flow and provide greater efficiency in theuse of transportation facilities.

The utility of paratransit services was alsoanalyzed. It was determined that a special serv-ices program funded at $5oO million annuallycould increase the mobility of the handicapped

and elderly by 80 percent. (The young and thepoor would benefit most from improvements inconventional transit. ) Other forms of paratran-sit to provide community or general transitservice would be beneficial, but extremely ex-pensive under prevailing wage and labor condi-tions.

Within metropolitan areas, ridesharing hasthe potential to reduce petroleum consumption,automobile emissions, consumer costs, and traf-fic congestion. Increased acceptance of this formof transportation depends more on institutional

changes than on financial assistance. Rideshar-ing would gain greater acceptance if accom-panied by transportation use controls.

Except for gasoline rationing or allocation,none of the polic ies examined in this studywould affect automobile travel by more than 4

225

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percent. However, drivers and passengers will passengers, but not necessarily with any loss of have to accommod ate them selves to certain comfort. Automobiles will have improved safe-changes in the comfort and convenience of the ty features but, because of the deterioration inautomobile. The typical car of the future will be roads and bridges, the ride may be less smooth,smaller and less powerful. It will carry fewer and perhaps less safe.

BACKGROUND

One of the goals of society is to enable citi-zens to take part in activities that improve andmaintain their social and economic well-being.Essential to the attainment of this goal is theability to reach jobs, consumer goods, recrea-tion sites, and other desired activities. To thisend, the Federal Government has acted as a major provider and regulator of transporta tionservices. The challenge today is to find newtechnological and institutional solutions thatwill improve the individual’s ability to reachdesired and necessary activities by a mode of transportation that is compatible with other na-tional goals—energy conservation, environ-mental protection, and public safety.

Mobility can be measured as the number of transportation options available for a trip aswell as the cost, comfort, convenience, safety,reliability, and speed of the trip. Mobility canbe improved by improving one or more of theseseven characteristics of personal tripmaking.

There are two alternatives to improved mo-bility. The first is to improve accessibility bybringing people and activities into greater prox-imity. The other is to reduce the need for travel,by promoting substitutes for travel (such as tele-communications) or by fostering changes in atti-tudes and l ifestyles to reduce the desire totravel.

The Federal Government has financed trans-portation since 1823 and has regulated it since

1887. Originally these activities were promptedby a national interest in opening up undevel-oped parts of the country. Because legal andconstitutional limitations prevented the Statesfrom undertaking some transportation-relatedactivities, a strong Federal role began to evolve.

The first Federal-aid highway act was passedin 1916. The Federal-Aid Road Act of 1916 1 pro-vided for Federal and State sharing of highwayconstruction costs on a 50/ 50 basis. Each Statewas to establish a highway department thatwould develop management and constructionstandards acceptable to the Federal Govern-ment. This was followed by other highway actswhich, in addition to providing more Federalmon ies, increased Federal involvement

Other milestones in the historyhighway policymaking include:

1930’s—beginning of Federal a,roads,

.

of Federal

d for local

1956—creation of the Highway Trust Fund,financed by taxes collected on petroleumproducts and tires,

1962—comprehensive State planning re-

quired as a condition for receipt of highwayconstruction monies from the Federal Gov-ernment,

1973—the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 19732 allowed local jurisdictions to divertHighway Trust Fund monies to mass transitcapital expenditures.

Mobility will continue to be an issue of majorpublic importance. For most of this century,mobility has been steadily improving; and thedegree of Federal involvement has grown. Sub-stantial redirection of transportation policy may

now be necessar y to maintain current levels of mobility or to expand mobility further.

‘Federul-Aid Road Act of 1916, Statutes at Large 39, sec. 355(1916).

‘Federa/-Aid Highuwy Art of 197.3 Stotuttx at Large 87, sec. 250( 1973], U. S Code. Vol. 23, sec. 101 ( 1Q73).

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Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings q 227

PRESENT POLICY AND PROJECTIONS

The future mobility of the population will bestrongly influenced by demographic trends andfuture economic conditions and by Federaltransportation policies. Between 1975 and 2000,the population is expected to increase over 20percent. The urbanization of the population willcontinue. More persons (particularly women)will be in the labor force, and real incomes willdouble. Thus, by 2000, it is projected that therewill be 36 percent more licensed drivers than in1975 and 56 percent more cars on the road. Thetotal amount of automobile driving will increaseby almost 75 percent to 1.8 trillion vehicle milesannually.

The Base Case assumes that the Federal Gov-ernment will not build new highways at a pace

sufficient to keep up with the growth in personalautomobile travel. Although it is assumed thattotal highway spending by all levels of govern-ment will remain the same in constant dollars,the proportion spent on new construction willdecline by 2000 to half of what it is now. As aresult, travel times will increase, particularly inurban areas where average speeds will be 10 to15 percent slower and where motorists will en-counter congested conditions 3 times as often astoday.

Transportation System Management (TSM)

techniques can be used to improve the move-ment of persons and vehicles in urban areas atrelatively low cost. Both the Urban Mass Trans-portation Administration (UMTA) and the Fed-eral Highway Administration (FHWA) are en-couraging the use of TSM to avoid costly capitalprojects such as new expressways and rail rapidtransit systems. However, the responsibility forTSM is spread across many programs in theDepartment of Transportation (DOT), with nocentral focus. For the Base Case, therefore, TSMis assumed to have limited impacts on mobility.

The highway funding assumptions for theBase Case envisage that more money will beavailable for maintenance. However, much of itwill be absorbed by minor reconstruction andbridge replacement, leaving roadways in ap-preciably worse condition than today.

Fuel economy mandates will make the typicalcar of the future smaller and less powerful thanthe automobiles of the 1960’s. However, equip-ping all cars with passive restraints by 1984 andmaking them more crashworthy will make oc-cupants less vulnerable to death and serious injury. It is assumed in the Base Case that the levelof compliance—or noncompliance—with the 55mph speed limit will not change significantlyand that there will be little change in automobilesafety or travel time.

Federal Government support for public tran-sit has been growing in recent years. Financialassistance programs are assumed to continuegrowing until 1985 and then remain at that levelthrough 2000. Operating deficits, already risingsteadily, will grow even faster since the new

services provided with this Federal assistancewill also require subsidies. By 2000, the Stateand local transit burden could rise to $4.9 bil-lion annually. Total ridership on conventionaltransit would increase only modestly (about 15percent) over this period. Without an increase inthe level of support , r idership by the transitdependent would decline slightly on a per capitabasis.

As part of the RD&D program of UMTA,four downtown people mover systems are ex-pected to be operating by 1985. Future installa-

tions will depend on the success of these demon-strations. Urban rail systems currently underconstruction will be completed, and several ex-isting systems will be expanded. It is expectedthat only two or three new rail rapid transitsystems will be started; UMTA will probablyshow a strong preference for light rail. Thesesystems will have important effects on localmobility, but the improvements will be barelyperceptible on a national basis. The future forautomated guideway technologies is uncertain,but they are expected to have little or no impacton mobility by 2000. It is assumed that fares,

which averaged 33 cents per ride in 1975, willfall to 20 cents by 1985 (in 1975 dollars) to en-courage ridership. Fares are assumed to remainat that level until 2000. Most of the fare decreasewill be in the form of reductions for the elderlyand handicapped.

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ISSUES AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES

Five mobility issues were identified for theautomobile assessment. The first three raise thequestions of whether, how, and for whom mo-bili ty should be expanded. The la tter two,which are examined later in this chapter, con-

sider alternatives to reduce the need or desire forvehicular travel. These mobility issues wereused to construct the two alternative policy setsexamined later in this chapter.

The Amount and Distributionof Mobility

The three issues pertaining to the amount anddistribution of mobility are:

q

q

q

To what extent and by what means should

the Federal Government promote increasesin the level of general mobility?

To what extent should the Federal Govern-ment seek to change the distribution of mobility by changing transportation policyto aid the transportation disadvantaged?

To what extent should the Federal Govern-ment discourage automobility as a policyfor meeting national goals?

Americans have come to regard mobility asan inalienable right. To assure this right, alllevels of government have been involved insponsoring the auto-highway system. However,this arrangement has created two basic prob-lems that have received increasing recognitionin the last decade:

q The automobile is not the ultimate in mo-bility for large numbers of the population.

q The au tomobi le imposes g rea t costs onsociety because of its energy consumption,environmental pollution, and safety prob-lems.

Recognition of these shortcomings is causing

changes in automobile design and in the waythat Government provides transportation serv-ices. Projections indicate that the automobilewill remain the primary means of personal mo-bility, but changes need be brought about in theway in which the automobile system operates.

There are several ways to expand personalmobility:

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Enlarge the highway system,

E x p a n d p u b l i c t r a n sp o r ta t io n a n d e n -

courage ridership,Implement TSM projects,

Encourage paratransit,

Aid the transportation disadvantaged,

Promote advanced transit technologies,an d

Restrict certain types of automobile travel.

Build More Highways

The first alternative, enlarging the highwaysystem, was adopted by the Federal Govern-ment in 1916 and is still the most widely sup-ported mobility policy of the Federal Govern-ment. Since the first “Road Act” in 1916, th elevel of service offered by the Nation’s highwayshas constantly increased. Construction of in-terstate highways, the keystone of the system,has maintained this service up to the presentday. Ninety percent of this system is now inplace, and the remainder is scheduled for com-pletion by 1990. While it would be possible toexpand mobility further by means of new high-ways, this can be done only at great expense.

Provide More Transit

On the other hand, there are a growing num-ber of environmentalists, energy conservation-ists, city officials, and transportation plannerswho maintain that the automobile has had toomuch Federal support. They feel that assistanceshould now be directed toward public transpor-tation. They argue that mass transit systems aremore energy efficient, less polluting, less disrup-

tive to neighborhoods, and are the main sourceof mobili ty for the transporta tion disadvan-taged.

Federal assistance to public transporta tionhas grown considerably since the early 1960’s.Current aid to mass transit is approaching $3

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bill ion annually .3 The assistance requested byAMTRAK for FY 1978 was $545 million.4 Re -cently, intercity bus operators began lobbyingfor assistance to stem their deteriorating finan-cial condition and to compensate for the detri-mental effects of AMTRAK competition. 5 Thereare now proposals before Congress to aid ruraland small-town public transportation as part of

a new combined nonmetropolitan highway andtransit program. 6

Transportation Systems Management

One alternative to expensive new highwayprojects in urban areas is to improve the man-agement and efficiency of existing transporta-tion systems. This is known as TransportationSystems Management (TSM) and includes suchactions as reserved lanes for high-occupancy ve-hicles, promotion of carpools and vanpools,shared-ride taxis, improved transit service, andautomobile disincentives (tolls, parking bans,

and parking taxes). (See table 97. )

Recognizing the need for TSM, UMTA andFHWA issued a joint regulation in 1975 7 requir-ing that TSM be part of the Urban Transporta-tion Planning Process. This regulation labeledTSM as the short-term element of urban areatransportation planning. Most TSM actions aredesigned to produce two principal effects: to im-prove the flow of vehicles on existing rights-of-way, and to improve the load factors of thevehicles on these rights-of-way. g H o w e v e r ,many of the technologies listed in table 97, such

as congestion pricing and auto-restricted zones,are still foreign to the American city. Further,many of these strategies will work at the ex-pense of some stakeholder groups, even thoughbenefiting others.

3“UMTA Asks Congress for Transit Money, ” Paswrrger Tram-port 36 (Apr. 7, 1978): 1,3.

“’Amtrak Asks for $56.5 Million More, ” Railuwy Age 178 (oct.

10, 1977): 26 .

5U. S. Congress, House, Committee on Public Works and Trans-portation, Higlwuy Transit Proposals, hearings before the Sub-committee on Surface Transportation, 95th Con,, 2d sess., 1978,sec. 405(a).

‘U.S. Congress, Senate, H~ghumy lmpro~~er?lent Act of 1978, S.

2440, 95th Con., 2d sess., 1978, sec. 405(a).‘Federal Register 40 (Sept. 17, 1975): 42976-42984.‘Most definitions of TSM include paratransit. The benefits of

“ridesharing” or “pooling” in improving traffic flow are obvious.The small-bus and special services, while not necessarily having asignificant impact on traffic flow, are more closely tailored to veryspecific markets and operate more effectively than conventionaltransit.

Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings

Table 97.—Spectrum of TSM Actions

q 2 2 9

Improved vehicular flowq Improvements i n signalized intersectionq Freeway ramp metering. One-way streetsq Removal of on-street parkingq Reversible lanes• Traffic channelization. Off-street loading. Transit stop relocation

Preferential treatment of high-occupancy vehicles. Freeway bus and carpool lanes and access

rampsŽ Bus and carpool lanes on city streets and urban

arterials. Bus preemption of traffic signals. TolI policies

Reduced peak-period travelq Work reschedulingq Congestion pricingq Peak-period truck restrictions

Parking management. Parking reguIations. Park-and-ride faciIities

Promotion of nonauto or high-occupancy auto use Ridesharing. Human-powered travel modes. Auto-restricted zones

Transit and paratransit service improvements. Transit marketingq Security measuresq Transit sheltersq Transit terminals Transit fare policies and fare Collection tech-

niques Extension of transit with paratransit servicesq Integration of transportation services

Transit management efficiency measures. Route evaluation Vehicle communication and monitoring tech-

niquesq Maintenance policies. Evaluation of system performance

SOURCE U S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Admlnlstrationand Urban Mass Transportat Ion Adm In Istrat Ion, Trarvsporf.stfon.Sysfern tdanagemen( State of ttre Art, February 1977, p V.

Unlike master planning of land use and long-range transportation planning, TSM has not yetbecome institutionalized. Although there are anumber of funding options for the Federal Gov-ernment to support TSM, they are scatteredover a number of separate categorical grant pro-grams with differing requirements and matchingratios. This situation creates disincentives to aneffective local TSM program.9

9“UMTA Red Tape Costs Millions, ” Passenger T ranspor t 36(Apr. 7, 1978): 1.

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Many actions now labeled as TSM have beeninstituted in urban areas as part of normal traf-fic control improvements. In some cases, theseTSM actions were adopted as alternatives tolarger scale improvements which could not befunded. The joint regulation of TSM projects byUMTA and FHWA has insti tutionalized thisprocess. As a result, TSM actions must undergothe same regional review and approval process

as major long-range, capital-intensive projects.In addition, many TSM actions must also besu b mi t t e d fo r DOT re v ie w a n d a p p ro v a l .UMTA is currently attempting to add staff andto decentralize its grant approvals to hasten thisprocess.

While there can be little argument with the in-heren t v i r tues o f TSM, the p ro jec ted h ighgrowth in urban traffic congestion makes i tclear that TSM alone is not the solution. A largecapital improvement program is necessary justto maintain current conditions. Additionally,

there is a limit to the amount of TSM that can becarried out in a given area without TSM pro-grams themselves becoming capital-intensive.

Paratransit

One concept, often considered a part of TSM,is paratransit, This includes ridesharing andsmall-bus or special systems. Ridesharing (car-pooling, vanpooling, buspooling) generally of-fers the rider cost-savings, reliability, and free-dom from having to drive himself. A recentstudy of 21 cities revealed that 18 percent of thecommuters traveled in carpools, 10 An additionalincentive for a vanpool driver is the free use of the van nights and weekends. In some pools,where the institution organizing the pool ownsor leases the van, a small mileage charge may belevied. A vanpool driver can sometimes make asmall profit if the vehicle is subscribed to capac-ity.

Carpooling is currently the most popularform of ridesharing, mostly for workers at largeinstallations. Carpools are generally formed bythe riders, although there is a growing tendencyfor employers or communities to help organize

carpools. Most vanpools are employer-spon-sored, with the employer owning or leasing the

‘“U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e , B u r e a u of t h e C e n s u s ,Sclectelf Churartenst[cs of Truzlel to ~clrk 7)1 21 Metr[Jpo/~tat~Arcus: 1975 February 1978, p, 1.

vehicles and riders covering the operating ex-penses.

There are some major impediments to wide-spread pooling. The first is the loss of conveni-ence. Pool vehicles run on tight schedules, andall riders must conform. There is no “late bus. ”Unless priority is given to the pool vehicle, thetrip usually takes longer than driving alone. The

biggest impediment is in forming pools, Forcommuting, there must be enough willing peo-ple with similar origins, destinations, and workhours for the idea to work. Thus, pools areusually inappropriate for small towns, dispersedsmall-employment sites, and low-densit y resi-dential areas.

The greatest potential for pooling would beachieved if a large share of commuters in aparticular area or corridor would shift fromprivate autos to higher occupanc y v e h ic le s ,Congestion, travel times, and requirements forhighway capacity would be reduced. Such con-versions are unlikely without some strong in-centive.

Paratransit most commonly connotes small-bus operations or special services. Even taxis areincluded in some definitions. In general, para-transit is expected to serve those travel markets(particularly the transportation disadvantaged)not well-served by the private car or conven-tional bus and rail transit. Also, certain otherurban transit markets (i. e., low-density serviceor feeders and distributors) can be more effi-ciently served by small vehicles, dial-a-ride, or

door-to-door service. However, the productiv-ity and operating costs of these services are in-ferior to regular bus service, and paratransitoften requires heavy subsidies. Many systemshave trouble with the labor protection provi-sions of the Urban Mass Transporta tion Actthat generally require the use of union oper-ators. When a small bus replaces a large one,there is little opportunity for savings since mosttransit revenues go to pay the operator’s wages.

The Transportation Disadvantaged

For physical, social, or economic reasons,certain segments of society lack the degree of mobility enjoyed by the majority of the popula-tion. These persons are commonly called the“transportation disadvantaged, ” “transit de-pendent, ” or “carless. “ They include some of the

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Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings q231

elderly, the handicapped, the young, the poor,and the chronically unemployed. There are sig-nificant numbers of each. For example, there aresome 10 million nonhandicapped elderly. 11 Per-sons under 17 represent 34 percent of the pop-ulation. 12 People living below the officiallydesignated poverty level (including some elder-ly, handicapped, and young) make up over 12percent of the population. 13 Nationwide, nearly

20 percent of all households do not own a car.During the past decade, the Federal Govern-

ment directed special attention to the mobilityproblems of the handicapped and elderly; andtoday there are more than 30 G o v e r n m e n t -sponsored programs for these groups. Theseprograms are of two general types:

1. Specialized transportation services (oftenparatransit), and

2. Reduced fares and physical improvementsto make federally aided mass transit sys-

tems easier to use.For the poor who are neither elderly or handi-

capped, there have been few programs to im-prove mobility—unless one includes public sub-sidies for mass transit systems. A justificationoften given for such subsidies is that they repre-sent a form of welfare aid to low-income house-holds. But, at best, this aid is indirect andlimited to areas where mass transit exists. Largenumbers of poor people live in rural or subur-ban communities, where there usually are noalternatives to the automobile. To overcomethese disadvantages, proposals have been ad-vanced to replace or combine mass transit sub-s id ies wi th d i rec t “use r-s ide” subsid ies tomembers of each disadvantaged group. Thesubsidies would enable individuals to choose theavailable transportation system that best fitstheir needs—automobiles, transit, or taxis.

The most commonly s ta ted ra t iona le fo raiding the transportation disadvantaged is thathigher mobility will reduce poverty and im-prove social well-being. However, the validityof this proposition has not been fully tested. The

prospect for Federal commitment to transporta-tion aid for low-income individuals depends, inpart, on whether it can be shown that inade-quate transporta tion—as opposed to low in-come—restricts shopping, working, recreation,and other activities beyond walking distance.

This issue is complex. It involves not only thedisadvantaged, but also transit and taxi oper-ators, vehicle manufacturers, all levels of gov-ernment, and a variety of regulatory agencies.Progress is being made as more is learned aboutthe problem. Recently implemented regulationsrequire all federally funded systems and im-provements to be fully accessible to the elderlyand handicapped. This goal should be achievedby the mid-1980’s, as new and replacement vehi-cles are purchased and as older transit stationsare modernized. Independent mobility for theyoung and the poor will depend upon prospects

for expansion of public transportation service.While current levels of capital assistance to buybuses and build and modernize rail systems arelarge and still growing, operating assistance isquickly being swallowed up by rising operatingcosts. Paratransit, which can be tailored to

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special needs, is less cost-effective. The elderlyof tomorrow, many of whom live in the suburbstoday, will increasingly create a suburban tran-sit demand as their driving skills wane.

Advanced Transit Technologies

One of the new approaches proposed formeeting urban transportation needs is the use of

automated vehicle systems operating on ex-clusive rights-of-way. New heavy-rail systemssuch as in Washington, San Francisco, Balti-more, and Atlanta are extremely costly andfeasible only in high-density corridors. Busesare limited by other street traffic. AutomatedGuideway Transit (AGT) systems provide anintermediate alternative. Three classes of AGTsystems are summarized in table 98.

The only AGT system currently operating inre g u la r u rb a n t r a n sp o r ta t io n se rv ic e is inMorgantown, W.Va. (although often referred toas a Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) system, thisis really an example of Group Rapid transit(GRT)). A similar system, AIRTRANS, oper-ates at the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Severalother airports (Miami, Seattle, Houston) andsome private theme parks also have AGT sys-tems, but with less complex networks. UMTAhas committed $22o million to assist demonstra-tions of four Downtown People Movers (DPM),which should be in operation by 1985. Addi-tional installations will depend on the results of these demonstrations.

The mobility benefits of AGT depend on thetype of system and the proximity of stations to

Table 98.—Characteristics of Automated Guideway Transit

Shuttle-loop transit Group rapid transit Personal rapid transit(SLT) (GRT) (PRT)

Operations. . . . . . . . . . . .

Passengerconvenience . . . . . . . . .

Systemconfiguration. . . . . . . . .

Areawideformation network. . . . .

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Simple,single route.

Switching in aconstant manner.

Passengers use anyvehicle.

Stops at eachstat ion.

All passengers on aroute traveltogether.

Shuttles and loops.

Online stations.

Switches seldomrequired.

Many interfacingshuttles or loops.

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

Complex q

multiple routes.Prescheduled.

q

Switching reacts tovehicle identity.

q

Passengers share q

assigned vehicle.

May bypass some q

stat ions.q

Passengers travelin groups.

Lines branch and q

merge.q

Online and offlinestat ions. q

Switches required.

Multiple interfacing q

GRT systems.

Very complexmultiple routes.

Vehicles activelyresponsive todemand.

Switching is tailoredfor each passenger’sdest inat ion.

Passengers areassigned vehicles.

No stops en route.

Passengers travelalone or in small,private groups.

Coupled guideways.

Off-line stations.

Many switchesrequired.

Single integratedPRT systems.

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passenger origins and destinations. An impor-tant benefit of AGT is speed of travel, achievedprimarily by operating on a private right-of-way. However, separation from other trafficcontributes to the high cost of AGT systems.Automation reduces the labor costs to operateAGT systems, but not without increased main-tenance expenditures, The energy savings of AGT have not been proven; however, sincesources other than petroleum can be used togenerate electricity, AGT systems have a dis-tinct advantage over automobiles, buses, andparatransit. A 1975 OTA assessment of AGTsuggested that more research was necessary onthe economics, a cce ptab ility, a n d t ech n ica laspects of AGT operation. 15

Restricted Automobile Travel

Ever since the private passenger car emergedas a significant mode of travel, mobility andautomobility have been synonymous. Any at-

tempt to restrict freedom of automobile use hasbeen regarded as limiting mobility. However, itis now recognized that unrestrained automobil-ity may conflict with other national goals andthat reducing automobile travel may be an im-portant means (albeit not the only means) of achieving significant energy, environmental ,and safety benefits.

Limiting automobility and increasing overallm o b il it y a r e n o t n ece ss ar i ly i n co m p a t ib legoals— not even in the short term. Knowledgeof how the automobile best functions in a

transportation system is imperfect, and it is notknown at what point increased automobile useleads to diminished automobility,

The Department of Transportation has pro-posed restricting automobility as a means of im-proving mobility in general. DOT aims to in-crease the load-carrying efficiency of congestedhighways through incentives to use carpools orexisting transit systems. One such incentive isthe creation of special lanes for buses and car-pools. Commuters who take advantage of thesereserved lanes typically save 15 to 20 min u te s

per trip. Under favorable conditions, the com-muters in single-occupancy vehicles can be littleworse off (and possibly better off) than they

1 su s congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Automated. .Guideumy _l”ransif. An Assessment of Personal RnpId Trunslt and

Other Neul Systems, OTA-T-8, June 197s.

! 1 -C17’~ () - 7’! - 1 h

would be without the lane restrictions, Anotherstrategy, vanpooling, is believed to be one of themost energy-efficient modes of surface transpor-tation. 16

The issue of limiting automobile use oftencomes down to a question of the importance theNation attaches to clean air, safety, and energyconservation compared to automobili ty . The

Federal Government has a lready adopted atleast one policy that favors some other goalover automobility. The Clean Air Act requiresreduced emissions from mobile sources, in-cluding automobiles .17 Many large cities willnot be able to meet the ambient a ir quali tys t a n d a rd s b y 1 9 8 2 th ro u g h s t a t io n a ry a n dmobile source controls alone. *8 In such cities,EPA may require the use of “transportation con-trol strategies, ” includ ing park ing limitations,auto-free zones, and improved transit to attractdrivers out of their cars. The Act also providesfor withholding Federal highway funds in areas

where EPA finds that reasonable progress is notbeing made toward attainment of the standards.The requirement for the transportation controlstrategies has resulted in many court cases in thepast. However, in general, EPA has retained theauthority to require implementation in areaswhere air quality standards cannot be met byother means.

The controversy over reducing automobilityto promote other social goals raises many ques-tions. Can the American public modify its pref-erence for automobility —a preference encour-aged by the Government for decades and fos-tered through billions of industry advertisingdollars? Will the intended reductions in auto-mobile usage actually occur and will projectedenergy, environmental , and safety benefitsmaterialize? Will, for example, parking restric-tions for city commuters merely result in moreauto trips by family members in the suburbs,using the cars that are left at home? Will ahigher gasoline tax or a special tax on heavy,

‘“U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, Urbau ?_ratlspor-

tufion arm’ Energy T h e Potential Satlings of Llffcrent M o d e sprepared for U.S. Senate, Committee on Environment and Public

Works, 95th Con., 1s t sess., Committee Print No. 95-8, September1977.‘ “ C l e a n Air Act Ame~~dments of 1977, Public Law 95-o5, QI

Stat, 685, U.S. Code, Vol. 42, sec. 7401 -762b, (1977).18The C]ean Alr Act Amendm~ nts of 1977 contain special re-

quirements for areas that cannot achieve carbon monoxide andoxidant standards by 1982, These areas must develop plans for

achievement of the standards no later than 1987.

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fuel-inefficient, polluting cars discourage theirpurchase, but actually increase the distancesdriven per carowner as consumers begin switch-

ing to fuel-efficient automobiles?As technologies for pollution control, alter-

na te energy sources, and au tomobile sa fe tyemerge, these problems could decline in im-portance. The leadtime for these technologies,however, is as long as 30 years, and significantactions may be necessary in the interim. BaseCase projections indicate that insufficient prog-ress on the air pollution question will be madeby 2000, when at least 54 Air Quality ControlRegions are expected to remain in violation of the oxidant standard and 24 regions will still bein violation of the carbon monoxide standard.Base Case projections through the year 2000 in-dicate that with the 27.5 mpg standard automo-bile petroleum consumption could be as muchas 10 percent below current levels. The numberof crashes, injuries, and fatalities will continue

to rise despite some improvements in automo-bile safety. Thus, it appears that it will be nec-essary to reexamine the relationship between

automobility and other goals of our society.

Reducing the Need and Desire to Travel

A fundamental alternative to improved mo-bility is offered by policies to reduce the need ordesire to travel. Such policies raise two majorissues:

q

q

To what extent should the Federal Govern-ment promote land use controls as a long-

te rm measure to improve access ib i l i tywh ile r ed u cin g th e e n v iro n me nta l a n denergy problems of the automobile?

To what extent should the Federal Govern-ment attempt to reduce travel demand by

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supporting nontransportation alternativessuch as telecommunications, or by encour-aging less travel-dependent activities andlifestyles?

The traditional approach to facilitate carryingout the activities of daily life has been to pro-vide more and better transportation. There is analternative—reducing the distances people must

travel or reducing the need for travel.Federal programs have supported the general

trend toward low-density urban development.Federally funded highway construction has in-creased both the speed of travel and the dis-tances that can be traveled in a given time.Federal mortgage loan programs have enabledfamilies to buy new housing in the suburbs withlow d ownpayments. These Federal programshave been very popular.

Recently, however, concern about neighbor-hood disruption by highway construction,worsening a ir qua l i ty , a n d in c re a se d d e -pendence on foreign oil have caused some toquestion the desirability of continued highwaybuilding, urban sprawl, and the increasing coststhat accompany them. In general, the effects of Federal policies that have led to scattering of de-velopment are not offset by strong land use con-

trol at any lower level of government. In a fewlimited instances, States have begun to take ac-tion to preserve valuable natural assets, such asthe California and Oregon coastal zone andsome of the more sensitive farm areas. CurrentFederal policy pertaining to development andland use planning merely supports analysis of land use impacts and information on certaingrant programs. Federal policy provides no real

encouragement for improved decisionmakingprocesses or stronger controls on development.

Changes in land use policies and tax lawscould, in principle, counter urban sprawl by en-couraging greater proximity between new resi-dences and businesses. With higher densitiesand mixed land uses, trip lengths would beshorter, transit could become a more attractivealternative, and walking could replace some ve-hicular travel. The result of such a developmentpolicy would be a significant increase in small,self-contained, high-density communities.

There are basic uncertainties about the bene-fi ts of such a pattern of development. Oneuncertainty is whether the costs of providingenergy and public services for high-densitycenters of multistory buildings might not behigher than for medium-density development

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composed mainly of two- and three-story build-ings. The other question is whether the benefitsof reduced automobile dependence justify thepersonal and intangible costs of high-densityliving. Based on current housing patterns, mostAmericans prefer low-density living, even withits attendant costs of pollution, energy waste,and neighborhood disruption.

Possible avenues of Federal involvement in-clude:

q

q

q

Eliminating tax deductions for mortgage in-terest and property taxes on single familyhomes,

Requiring State or local land use controlseither by law or as a precondition forFederal transportation aid, and

En cou ragin g St a t e l a n d u s e p l a n n i n gthrough planning grants.

National interest in land use changes could in-

crease substantially in the next decade as energyand air quality problems intensify. However,most benefits of land use controls would notbecome manifest for at least 20 or 30 y e a r s .Controls would affect only new constructionand not existing development. It might take ageneration or more for these controls to have anappreciable influence on the pattern of com-munity development.

Telecommunications devices could reduce theneed for business or private travel by enablingmore people to work at home. However, the ef-

fects on travel demand are by no means certain.Increased use of telecommunications could ex-pand the range of distant business opportunitiesand thereby increase the need to travel to con-duct face-to-face business. The use of radio,telephones, and television does not appear tohave diminished travel demand in the past.

In many ways, the policies of the Federal

Government exert a direct and powerful influ-ence on lifestyles and activities. Highway build-ing, income tax deductions for home mortgageinterest, and the welfare system are but three ex-amples. But the inverse is also true. Govern-ment policy reflects, however imperfectly, theprevailing values of society. The recent concernfor environmental quality is one example of public values influencing Federal programs.Other values may emerge as well—less em-phasis on materia lism, opposit ion to unre-stricted growth, or even new public attitudestoward travel. Such new attitudes could be the

impetus for change in federal policy.If such fundamental changes in societal values

occur, or if there are shifts in the prioritiesassigned to present values, the consequences forthe automobile transportation system could beprofound. While it would be speculative to pre-dict the course that changes in attitudes andlifestyles might take, it is clearly important torecognize that the personal transportation sys-tem exists solely to serve society’s ends. If thoseends change, so will the means by which theyare served.

ANALYSIS OF INCREASED MOBILITY POLICIES

Historically, Federal Government policy hasemphasized increased mobility to open up unde-veloped lands, promote westward expansion,assist marketing of agricultural products, andstimulate economic development. The economicprosperity and social structure of the country

have been viewed as dependent on widely avail-ab le , low-cost t ranspor ta t ion . The policiesstudied in the Increased Mobility Case are basedon the premise that it is desirable to expand thecapacity and efficiency of highway and transitsystems in the interest of promoting the con-

tinued economicUnited States.

The Increasedcreased funding

and social well-being of the

Mobility policies call for in-of highway and transit con-

struction programs. The transit programs also

emphasize improved services for the transporta-tion disadvantaged. For highways, constructionof new roads is supplemented by an extensiveand vigorous program of transportation systemmanagement. Also included in the IncreasedMobility policies are measures to improve vehi-

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Ch. 8—Mobility Issues j Policies, and Findings q 237

c!e crashworthiness and to discourage fuel-inefficient automobiles by means of taxation.

EffectsHighways

A major aim of the Increased Mobility pol-icies is to expand the highway system to ac-commodate the expected growth in VMT and toavoid the congestion and speed reductions thatare projected to occur under Base Case condi-tions. Instead of decreasing annual expendituresfor highway construction to $7 billion by 2000,as in the Base Case, they would rise to $20 bil-lion by 1985 and remain at that level until 2000.(see table 99. ) An additional annual outlay of $1.5 billion would be allotted for TSM projects,(ramp meter ing , lane con tro ls , d r ive r adv i-sor ies, and sa fe ty improvements) benefi t ingautos, trucks, and buses. Expenditures formain tenance and o ther h ighway needs a re

assumed to be the same as in the Base Case.Under the Increased Mobility policies, travel

speeds in urban areas would be maintained at

their 1975 levels, instead of the 12-percent re-duction expected in the Base Case. Because of the higher levels of service, urban VMT in 2000

would be approximately 6 percent higher thanin the Base Case, as shown in table 100.19 Ap-proximately one-half of the increase in trafficvolume and speed is due to the expenditure of funds for TSM improvements. The other half re-sults from capital expenditures for new high-ways and highway widenings.

The programmed annual expenditure of $1.5billion for TSM would not be as effective in theearly years as it would be after 1985. Before1985, it will be difficult to find significant num-bers of opportunities where TSM will provide

‘9 Details of the assumptions used in these computations aregiven in Sydec ‘ EEA, pp . VI-16 to VI-18. These computations arebased on S. Schleifer, S. Zimmerman, and D. Gendell, The Co?~7-

rnunity Aggregate Plat~ning Mod~/ prepared for the 54th AnnualMee t ing o f the T ranspor ta t ion Resea rch Board , 1975; YacovZahavi, Trat~el T~me Budgets in LJrbarl Areas, prepared tor U.S.Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,

May 1974; and Jack Faucett Associates, System Design Concepts,Inc ., Meth odo logy for Estlrnating th e Impacts of Charlgcs In H[gh-way performance, prepared for U.S. Department of T ranspor ta -tion, Federal Highway Administration.

Table 99.—Assumed Highway Expenditures, Increased Mobility Case(billions, 1975 dollars)

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 11.2 7.0 20.0 20.0TSM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 0 1.5 1.5Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 8.7 10.8 8.7 10.8Other (administration,

police, debt, etc.). . . . . . . . 6.8 8.3 10.4 8.3 10.4Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.2 28.2 28.2 38.5 42.7

SOURCE Sydec/EEA, p VI.15

Table 100.—VehicIe Miles of Travel and Speeds, Increased Mobility Case


Rural highwaysDaily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 1,180 1,510 1,890 1,510 1,900Average speed (mph) . . . . . 48 48 48 48 48

Urban highwaysa

Daily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 1,630 2,410 3,000 2,460 3,190

Average speed (mph) . . . . . 33 33 30 34 33

All highwaysDaily VMT (millions) . . . . . . 2,810 3,920 4,890 3,970 5,090Average speed (mph) . . . . . 38 38 35 39 38

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large transportation improvements per dollar.However, by 2000, the growth in urban high-way travel will provide more opportunities toemploy this strategy.

It is expected that the condition of highwaysin the Increased Mobility Case will be as goodor better than in the Base Case. Although thesame amount of maintenance funds will have to

be spread over more lane-miles, the construc-tion program would allow the replacement of many badly deteriorated roads, which havehigh maintenance costs per mile.

The revenue sources for highway fundinghave not been estimated for the IncreasedMobility Case as they were for the Base Case.However, the assumption has been made thatthe fleet fuel cost per vehicle-mile would be heldconstant .20

‘(’The fuel economy standard is expected to remain at 27,5 m p gbetween 1985 and 2000 as in the Base Case. Diesel penetration of

the new car market is expected to be 10 percent by 1985 and 25 per-cent by 2000.

Transit

To assure balanced improvements in mobilityfor all segments of the population, this set of policies provides increased funding for rail andbus transit systems above Base Case levels. Animportant feature is a major increase in the levelof Federal operating assistance for transit sys-tems to lower what would otherwise be a heavy

burden on State and local governments. A por-tion of this subsid y would be used for specialservices for the handicapped and elderly.

The funds made available to transit under thisfinancial assistance program are shown in table101. The Federal capital funds to provide in-creased rail and bus service would almost dou-ble between 1975 and 1985 and then remain atthe 1985 level until 2000. This constitutes morethan twice the increase assumed for the BaseCase.

The biggest change, however, is in operating

assistance. With Federal operating funds in 2000

Photo Credit Sydec

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being 5 times greater than in the Base Case, theState and local operating subsidy would be cutfrom $4.47 billion to $2.12 billion. The amountof transit service provided by these funds wouldbe 15 to 20 percent higher than the Base Case in2000, and 65 to 80 percent higher than in 1975. 2]

(See table 102. )

Despite the new transit service which would

be provided and the TSM improvements whichwould improve bus speeds and reliability, over-all transit ridership would increase only slightlyabove Base Case levels. (See table 103. ) This isbecause TSM improvements will also benefitauto travel. The added and improved highwaycapacity will enable the auto to remain relative-ly more attractive than transit for many travel-ers. In the Improved Environment Case, a simi-lar program for conventional transit is pro-


vialed, but with auto disincentives. The result is

8.7 billion riders in 2000 compared to 6.8 in theIncreased Mobility Case.

The $500-million special services programwould be effective in improving the mobility of the handicapped and elderly. It would serve aprojected 333 million riders per year by 1985, inaddition to the 530 million rides by the handi-

capped and elderly on conventional services.22

The poor, the young, and other nondriverswould benefit more from the expansion of con-ven t ional serv ices. Al though the number o f poor in the population would be decreasing,their ridership would increase somewhat. Rider-ship by those under 18 would increase from the1970 level at about the same rate as their growthin the tota l population. These estimates aresummarized in table 103.

Table 101 .—Transit Financing Assumptions, Increased Mobility Case


—Actual Base Case In-creased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000 — . .Federal assistanceCapital a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,210 $1,710 $1,710 $2,360 $2,360Operating —convention al

service . . . . . . . . . . 300 930 930 1,610 4,420Operating —special service 70 70 70 400 400

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,580 $2,710 $2,710 $4,370 $7,180

State/local share

Capital

h

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 300 $ 430 $ 4 3 0 $ 5 9 0 $ 59 0Operating— conventionalservice . . . . . . . . . . 1,410 2,270 4,470 1,780 2,120

O p e r a t i n g — sp e c ia l se rv i ce — — — 100 100.Total C . . ... . . . . . . . $1,710 $2,700 $4,900 $2,470 $2,810 “

— — . — — . — —

Table 102.—Transit Service Levels, Increased Mobility Case

— —Actual Base Case Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles.: . . . 560 650 860 680 990Rail cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,700 15,700 12,200 18,200Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400 63,100 89,300Transit vehicle-miles

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950 2,430 3,480

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Table 103.—Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Increased Mobility Case(millions)


Conventional transitElderly and handicapped(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 520 560 530 580

Poor (over 17, not elderly,not handicapped) . . . . . . . 820 1,040 1,170 1,040 1,170

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 1,360 1,520 1,390 1,570

All transit dependent . . . . . 2,650 2,920 3,250 2,960 3,320Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 3,560 3,230 3,610 3,480

Total conventionalridership. . . . . . . . . . 5,930b 6,480 6,480 6,570 6,800


Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 520 560 530 580Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 40 40 330 330

Total service . . . . . . . . 480 560 600 860 910

aExcludes school bus riders.bRldershlp In 1975 was 56 billionSOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA, pp S-54, S.55, and VI-35 to VI-38

Other Mobility Effects that Base Case trends would be followed. Theexcise tax on fuel-inefficient automobiles would

The improvements in the quality of the high- tend to deter sales of large cars and to exert suchway system in the Increased Mobility Case are a strong influence on size class shares that, byexpected to cause auto VMT to rise by about 4 1985, 90 percent of new car sales would be smallpercent over the Base Case level in 2000. A cars. Standard-size cars would all but disap-detailed analysis was not carried out on auto pear. These projections are summarized in tableownership and new car sales, but it is assumed 104.

Table 104.—Auto Ownership and Other Impacts of Increased Mobility Policies

Actual Base Casea Increased Mobility1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Annual new car sales(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 b

13.1 16.4 13.1 16.4Percent of small carsc. . . 46 69 69 90 90Percent of diesels. . . . . . (d) 10 25 10 25

Total auto registrations(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 131 164 131 164

Total autos in operation(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 118 148 118 148

Autos per licensed driver. . .73 .78 .84 .78 .84VMT (trillion) . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03 1.43 1.80 1.45 1.87Average travel speed (mph)

All highways . . . . . . . . . . 38 38 35 39 38Urban areas . . . . . . . . . . . 33 33 30 34 33

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As part of ity, a safety

the program of improving mobil-policy of increased vehicle crash-

worthiness was included to lower auto-occupantfatalities and injuries. It is estimated that the ef-fect of this policy would be 6,000 fewer auto-occupant fatal i ties by 2000. 2 3

Impacts

The policy of expanding and improving theNation’s highway system inhibits achievementof energy and environmental benefits. Assum-ing the same fuel economy and emission stand-ards and diesel penetration rates as in the BaseCase, Increased Mobility policies lead to 4 per-cent more petroleum usage by automobiles and4 percent more emissions of CO, HC, and NO X

in 2000—both increases being directly propor-tional to the rise in auto VMT. (See tables 10 5

an d 106. )

Noise and water quality impacts ar e expectedto be similar to those in the Base Case. How-ever, the smaller automobiles in this case wouldreduce solid waste and recycling requirementssomewhat, beginning in the 1990’s. Hig h wa y -related displacements in 2000 are expected to bemore than double those of the Base Case due toincreased highway construction. (See table 107. )

The growth in highway construction wouldhave an impact on employment. The IncreasedMobility policies are estimated to yield 50 per-cent more construction jobs than in the BaseCase. The net increase in construction employ-ment in 1985 over 1975 levels would be 17 per-cent, as annual spending (in 1975 dollars) risesfrom $13.2 billion to $18.4 billion. ” Employ-ment impacts in the year 2000 were not com-puted.

Employment in the auto manufacturing in-dustry is expected to sta y close to the levels pro-

“Ibid., p. }’1-31 and [’1-32.

Table 105.—Automobile Energy Demand, Increased Mobility Case

Actual Base Casea Increased Mobility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Diesel penetration (percent of new car sales) . . . . . . . . .New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fleet fuel economy (mpg)Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annual auto fuel consumptionBillions of gallons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .MMBD equivalent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.03 1.43

(b) 10

none 27.515.6 28.514.0 23.2

15.1 24.013.6 19.4

76.0 73.95.0 4.8

30.6 23.9

1.80 1.4525 10

27.5 27.529.4 28.525.0 23.2

28.5 23.924.6 19.4

73.3 74.94.8 4.9

21.4 24.3

Table 106.—Air Quality Impacts of Increased Mobility Policiesa

(million tons per year)

1.8725

27.529.425.0

28.524.6

76.25.0

22.1

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Table 107.—Average Annual Displacements Due to Highway Construction,Increased Mobility Case

Actual Base Case Increased Mobility1971-75 1985 2000 1985 2000

Residential units. . . . . . . . . 10,800 5,500 4,300 7,700 9,700Businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,500 1,800 1,600 2,400 3,700Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 200 160 220 370Nonprofit organizations. . . 100 80 70 100 170

SOURCE Sydec EEA p VI 34

jected for the Base Case. Although the samenumber of cars would be sold, the mix wouldchange to an even higher proportion of smallcars. This would affect auto suppliers (e. g., steelmanufac tu re rs) more than the au to indust ryi tse l f . Se rv ice s ta t ions and the repa ir andmaintenance industry would benefit from the in-

creasing VMT between now and 2000.The impact of vehicle crashworthiness stand-

ards on automobile prices has not been esti-mated. However, it is anticipated that one resultof improved automobile safety would be tolower insurance costs in 2000 by about 10 per-cent compared to the Base Case projections. 25

ANALYSIS OF IMPROVED ACCESSIBILITY POLICIES

Increased interaction among the members of society does not necessarily mean expanding thepersonal transportation system. The ImprovedAccessibility Case was constructed to test thehypothesis that economic, social, and culturalac t iv i t ie s can be ca rr ied ou t sa t is fac to r i lywithout relying as heavily on the movement of people by private automobile and public transit.

The critical assumption is that the FederalGovernment would be able to influence land use

planning at the local level and thereby promotea long-term change from low-density, scattereddevelopment patterns to more concentrated andself-sufficient “high accessibility” dwelling andbusiness complexes. This would require a basicchange in the Federal policy on urban develop-ment. Eligibility for Federal assistance in landdevelopment would be determined by criteriasuch as reduced energy consumption, conserva-tion of natural resources, and lower travel timeor costs. 26

The role of the Federal Government would beto ensure that appropriate goals are set and tofocus on criteria for measuring attainment of these goals, The Federal Government would notmake local land use and transportation deci-

sions. Instead, it would evaluate the perform-ance of local agencies in reaching the objectivesthey set for themselves. Although it appearsthat such a program would not require any newpowers at the Federal level, it is assumed that if such powers were requ ired , they would besought and obtained.

Many existing Federal programs have an in-fluence on urban development patterns: hous-ing, highways, mass transporta tion, schools,

water supply, waste treatment, and economicdevelopment, to name a few, It is assumed thatthere would be closer coordination of these pro-grams and that all programs would be madeconsistent with a common set of Federal policygoals.

The intent of this policy is to coordinate com-muni ty deve lopment p rograms as a way of channeling metropolitan growth into areas mostsuited for development. This redirection of newdevelopment could begin on a modest scalewithin the next 10 years, and by 1990 half of allnew development could be shaped into high-accessibility areas with the following character-istics:

• Land developm ent would be completelycontiguous, as contrasted with current sub-urban and exurban patterns where leapfrog

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development typically results in 40 to 8 0percent of the land being left undeveloped.

Balanced communities would be createdwith well-defined multipurpose centers attheir cores.

Housing would be closely integrated withthe multipurpose centers to facilitate walk-

ing from residences to most activities.

Transit service would link the parts of thehigh-accessibility community to the multi-purpose center.

High-accessibility communities would bedirectly linked by high-speed bus or railtransit to the metropolitan central businessdistrict (CBD) and to other nearby centers.

Jobs and the resident labor force withineach high-accessibility community wouldbe in approximate balance. This would

minimize the need for long distance com-muting except for work trips to the CBD,which would be made largely by transit.

Each high-accessibility community wouldprovide a variety of dwelling units to servethe housing market. Incentives in the formof amenities to achieve clustering, openspace, a n d so me wh a t h ig h e r d e n s i t i e swould be included.

Pedestrian and bicycle facilities would linkneighborhoods with convenience centers,

schools, and community facilities. Thiswould maximize both the mobility of non-d r iv e r s a n d th e o p p o r tu n i ty fo r n o n -vehicular travel for trips within the com-mun it y.

Population density would average about10,000 persons per square mile, roughly thepresent density of central cities such asWashing ton ,D.C.

Effects

The effects of these policies would not emergefully until well into the next century. By 2000,most of today’s infrastructure would still be inplace, but pockets of high-accessibility com-munities would have begun to appear—either as

new developments or evolutionary replace-ments of present communities.

It might take 10 years or more to inauguratesuch a program. It is anticipated that local op-position (and possibly court tests) would persistfor some time, particularly in areas where Stateand local statutes conflict with Federal policy.Because no specific time frame for these factors

can be foreseen, the 1985 an d 2000 time pointsare only rough indicators of the pace of changeenvisioned.

Highways

The highway program in this set of policies isdesigned to concentrate on maintenance needsand to provide some support for new construc-tion, mostly within the new high-accessibilityareas. Typical facilities would include local andcollector streets as well as arterial connectionsto regional freeways. Pedestrian and bicycle

grade-crossings would be largely eliminated.Capital and maintenance funding for highwayswould be equivalent to Base Case levels, butwith the addition of $200 million per year forTSM projects. These would include ramp meter-ing, traffic surveillance systems, bus and car-pool lanes, auto-free zones, transit malls, andtraffic relief in neighborhood and communityactivity centers.

Vehicle miles of auto travel would grow to1.76 trillion in this case, slightly less than the1.80 trillion forecast for the Base Case. (Forcomparison, VMT in 1975 was 1.03 trillion. )

This lower level of VMT would occur becauseVMT per cap i ta in high-accessibility areaswould be approximately two-thirds that of ty p ic a l su b u rb a n a re a s to d a y . 27 This effectwould become more pronounced nationally1ater in the 21st century. Although the averageauto trip length would continue to grow-10.1miles in 2000 compared to 8.9 miles in 1975—itwould still be somewhat less than the Base Casevalue of 10.3 .28 Most of this difference would bedue to reduction or elimination of short autotrips within communities. Urban travel speedswould decline in this case, but not as much as inthe Base Case.

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Photo Credtt U S Department of Houstng & Urban Development

Phofo Cred/t U S Deparfmenf 01 Transportallon

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Transit

The transit program in the Improved Access-ibility Case emphasizes expanded service, par-ticularly community-oriented transit and use of small buses. As shown in tables 108 an d 109, ex-penditure for capital improvements would bethe same as in the Base Case. However, slightlyreduced emphasis on rail systems would lead to

a bus fleet 43 percent larger than in the BaseCase by 2000. Transit VMT would be 10 percenthigher than in the Base Case. Small buses wouldmake up approximately 5 percent of the fleet in1985 an d 10 percent in 2000. The community-oriented, small-bus services would differ some-what from the “special services” described in theIncreased Mobility Case since they would be

Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings q

part of regular transit operations servingtypes of riders.

State and local support for transit would

24 5

all

begreater than in 1975, but considerably below theBase Case levels. Compared to the IncreasedMobility Case, total State and local contribu-tions under Improved Accessibility policieswould be 20 percent lower in 1985 and about

equal in 2000. After 2000, higher operating sub-sidies would probably be required to offsetdeficits for extensive bus service,

Under Improved Accessibility policies, transitridership would be strongly encouraged, andnew highway capacity would not be providedfor automobiles as in the Increased Mobility

Table 108.—Transit Financing Assumptions, Improved Accessibility Case


ImprovedActual Base Case Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Federal assistanceCapital a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,210 $1,710 $1,710 $1,710 $1,710Operating —conventional

service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300 930 930 2,010 4,820Operating—special service 70 70 70 70 70

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,580 $2,710 $2,710 $3,790 $6,600

State/local/shareCapital b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 300 $ 430 $ 430 $ 430 $ 430Operating —conventional

service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,410 2,270 4,470 1,550 2,440Operating—special service — — — —

Total C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,710 $2,700 $4,900 –$1,980 $2,870

Table 109.—Transit Service Levels, Improved Accessibility Case

ImprovedActual Base Case Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Fixed guideway miles. . . . . 560 650 860 640 790

Rail cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,800 11,700 15,700 11,500 14,400Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,500 60,200 75,400 68,000 108,000

Small buses . . . . . . . . . . . — — — 3,500 10,700Transit vehicle-miles

(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,990 2,320 2,950 2,040 3,240

SOURCE Sydec, EEA, p Vll 32

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Case. Between 1975 and 2000, transit ridershipwould rise 35 percent, higher than in either theBase Case or the Increased Mobility Case. (Seetable 110. ) The handicapped and elderly, whowould be able to reach many destinations onfoot within high-accessibility areas, would usetransit only slightly more than in the Base Case.

Other Mobility Effects

Close to 10 percent of the population couldlive in high-accessibility areas by 2000. It isestimated that almost half of the nonwork tripsin such areas might be made by walking or tran-sit. 29 In the 1970 Census, it was determined that7.4 percent of all work trips were by walking. 30

In balanced communities, this percentage wouldreach as high as 15 percent. 31

By 2000, total automobile VMT would be 2percent lower than in the Base Case. In urbanareas, VMT would be 4 percent lower. New carsales and total auto registrations would also be

lower. Because of the “gas guzzler” tax assumed~v@&c WA, P. V11-10.J~u S De p a r tm en t of c~rnrnerce , Bureau Of the census, )Our’ney. .

to Work 2970 Census o,f PopukJt~o)z, PC(2)-6D, January 1974.‘lSydec EEA, pp. VII-34 and VII-35.

for this case, automobiles would be smaller andmore fuel-efficient. The general effects of Im-proved Accessibility policies on automobiletravel are summarized in table 111.

Greater crashworthiness for automobiles isassumed, with improved front-end design toreduce pedestrian and cyclist in jury. Safetywould also be enhanced by the pedestrian and

bicycle facilities built in high-accessibility areas.Quantitative estimates of the combined effect of these safety features have not been made. Ingeneral, however, reductions in fatalities and in-

juries can be expected by 1985. More significantreductions should occur by 2000 when the entireauto fleet would be equipped with improvedsafety features, and when auto-free zones andpedestrian facilities have become more preva-lent,

Impacts

The Improved Mobility Case yields greaterenergy and environmental benefits than theBase Case. The factors leading to these im-provements are stricter fuel economy and emis-

Table 110.— Projected Annual Transit Ridership, Improved Accessibility Case(millions)

ImprovedActual Base Case Accessibility1970 1985 2000 1985 2000

Conventional transit Elderly and handicapped(not poor) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 520 560 540 600

Poor (over 17, not elderly,not handicapped) . . . . . . . 820 1,040 1,170 1,090 1,280

Total younga. . . . . . . . . . . 1,390 1,360 1,520 1,490 1,860

All transit dependent . . . . . 2,650 2,920 3,250 3,120 3,740Other riders . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,280 3,560 3,230 3,740 3,860

Total conventionalridership. . . . . . . . . . 5,930b 6,480 6,480 6,860 7,600


Conventional transit. . . . . . 440 520 560 540 600Special services . . . . . . . . . 40 40 40 50 50

Total service . . . . . . . . 480 560 600 590 650

aExclude$ school bus riders

bRldershlp In 1975 was56 bllllon

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA, pp S-54, S-55, VII.31, and VII.50

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Ch. 8—Mobility Issues, Policies, and Findings • 247

sion standards and the relatively greater em-phasis on public transit as opposed to highways,As shown in table 112, fleet fuel economy is ex-pected to rise to 28.4 mpg by 2000, compared to24.6 mpg in the Base Case. Greater fuel econ-omy, combined with a 3-percent decrease inVMT, is expected to reduce automobile petro-leum consumption in 2000 by 20 percent, com-pared to the Base Case. J’ (See table 112. ) The

58.7 billion gallons of gasoline used annually byautomobiles would be 23 percent less than the76.0 billion gallons consumed in 1975, It is alsosignificant that petroleum consumption byautomobiles would then account for only 18percent of domestic consumption, down from31 percent in 1975. As this would be a contribu-tion to petroleum conservation, the questioncould then arise whether an acceleration of thetrend toward high-accessibil i ty communitiesmight not be in the national interest as a meansto reduce further our dependence on foreign oil.

The decreased automobile VMT under Im-—-

“Electr ic vehicles would account tor about s percent (lf autoVMT by 2000 in this case. Their energy requirements are not ln -

CI Llded

Table 111 .—Auto Ownership and Other

Actual

proved Accessibility policies, combined withthe stricter NO X standard of 0.4 gram per milethat has been assumed for this case, is expectedto yield further improvements in air qualityover the Base Case in 1985 and 2000. (See table113. ) Projections beyond 2000 have not beenmade, but it is expected that the environmentalb e n e f it s o f h ig h -a cce ss ib ili ty co m m u n it ie swould mount steadily as this pattern of land use

becomes more prevalent.Noise and water quality impacts would be

similar to the Base Case. Because the assumedlevel of highway construction is also the same asfor the Base Case, Improved Accessibility poli-cies are expected to have little, if any, impact onaverage annual highway-related displacementsof homes and businesses. For the same reason,employment in highway construction will beabout the same. Due to reduced new car sales,employment in auto manufacturing, which wasprojected to fall slightly in the period 1975-85 in

the Base Case, would fall slightly more as aresult of Improved Accessibility policies. How-ever, the magnitude of this potential decrease iswithin the error of the estimating process.

Impacts of Improved Accessibility Policies

ImprovedBase Casea Accessibility

1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Annual new car sales(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of small carsc. . .Percent of diesels. . . . . .

Total autos in operation(millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Autos per licensed driver. .VMT (trillions) . . . . . . . . . . .VMT per licensed driver . . .Average highway travel

speeds (mph) . . . . . . . . . . .Urban areas . . . . . . . . . . .

950.731.03

7,900

3833

13.16910

1180.781.43

9,500

3833

16.4 12.969 9025 10

148 1170.84 0.771.80 1.39

10,200 9,200

35 (e)30 (e)

15-1690

(d)

1410.801.76

9,900

(e)31

aBase Case A as defined In chapter 3b l 977 new car sales totaled 11 2 mllllonclncludes subcompact, compact and small luxury cars

‘Inslgniflcant‘Not estlmaledSOURCE Sydec/EEA, pp Vll 18 and Vll 26

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Table 112.—Automobile Energy Demand, Improved Accessibility Case

ImprovedActual Base Casea Accessibility1975 1985 2000 1985 2000

Automobile VMT (trillions). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.03Diesel penetration (percent of new car sales) . . . . . . . . . (c)New car fuel economy (mpg)

Regulation— EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . noneAttained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6

Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0Fleet fuel economy (mpg)

Attained—EPA certification value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1Attained—actual driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6

Annual fleet fuel consumptionBillions of gallons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.0MMBD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0Percent of domestic consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.6

1.4310

27.528.5

23.2

24.019.4

73.94.8

23.9

1.8025

27.529.4

25.0

28.524.6

73.34.8

21.4

1.3910

27.530.4

24.6

24.319.7

70.64.6

23.1

1.75b

(c)

40.040.0

34.0

33.428.4

58.73.8

17.8

aBa~e case A as defined (n chapter 3blncludes 85 bllllon electric vehicle VMTClnslgmflcant

SOURCE Adapted from Sydec/EEA

Table 11 3.—Air Quality Impacts of Improved Accessibility Policies

(millions tons per year)

Base Case Increased Mobility1985 2000 1985 2000

Carbon monoxide . . . . . . . . 32.6 27.3 31.6 25.4Hydrocarbons . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 2.9 3.4 2.8Nitrogen oxides. . . . . . . . . . 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.1

Factors influencing change in 2000

co HC NO.Base Case projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.30 2.94 2.94

Decreased VMT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . – 1 .91’ – 0.20 – 0.21Stricter Nonstandard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — + 0.09 – 0.65

Improved Accessibility Case. . . . . . . . . . . 25.39 2.83 2.08SOURCE Sydec/EEA, pp VII.40 to VII.42 and supplementary report.

Photo Credit Ken fucky Department of Hlghways~

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Chapter 9.— COST AND CAPITAL ISSUES, POLICIES, AND FINDINGS

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........251Public Funding of Highways. . ................253

Highway Financing Policies. . ..............256Highway Maintenance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261Congestion Cost-Pricing. . .................267

Government-Industry Relations . ..............273Trends and implications . ..................276Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...281

Consumer Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283Trends Affecting Personal Transportation

Costs . . . . . . . . . . . ......................283Policy Options to Control Consumer Costs ...288


114.

115.116.

117.

118.

119.

120.121.

Size and Distribution of FederalAppropriations forTransportation, 1955-75..258Legislation Relating to Highway Financing .258Advantages and Disadvantages of

Transportation Financing Options . . . . . . . . . 261Historical and Projected Distributionof Highway Disbursements. . .............264Legislation Affecting Automobile SystemCharacteristics and Use . ................274Contribution of the Motor Vehicle andEquipment industry to National Income in1973 and 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276Automobile industry Employment, 1976....276Change in the Distribution of New CarSales, 1976-85. . . . ......................277

Page

122. Projected Sales and Economic Data forthe Auto lndustry . ......................277

123. Net lncome and Net lncome as a Percentof Sales in the U.S.Automobile Industry,1969-76. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....278

124. Market Shares ofU.S. PassengerCar

Manufacturers unselected Years . . . . . . . . . . 280125. Cost of Owning and Operating anAutomobile-1950-76 . ..................284

126. Estimated Average New Car CostsofOwnership and Operation Based on ProjectedShifts in Size Classes. . ..................287

127. Costs Per Mile of Owning and Operatingan Automobile in 1976, 1985,and2000. . . . ..288

128. State Regulation of Automobile Repair. ....292


47. Historical and Projected Distribution ofTotal Highway Disbursements . ............265

48. Total Urban Automobile Travel UnderCongested Conditions for1975, 1985,and 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .268

49. Projected Average Speed in Urban Areas. ...269505152

53

Scope of U.S. Automotive industry . ........275Long-Term Debt as a Percent of Equity. ... ..281Comparative Trends in Selected Componentsof Auto Ownership and Operating Costs—Deflated by the Consumer Price Index .. ....285Forecasts for Components of Ownership andOperation Costs of a Standard-Size Auto ....286

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The Federal Government provides about $7billion of the $28 billion spent each year on thehighway system, most of this through the High-way Trust Fund. Federal assistance for masstransit, which amounts to about $2 billion peryear, is funded from general revenues.

If present trends continue, highway construc-tion will decrease through the year 2000, a n dthe new miles added to the system will fall far

short of the demand created by growing auto-mobile travel. In addition, meeting increasedh igh way m ain ten an ce needs and prov id ingmoderate improvements in transit service willplace a growing burden on State and local gov-ernments. A major increase i n Federal assistancefor transit operation and highway maintenancewill be needed to retain the current level of mobility and protect the investment in the exist-ing highway system.

The automobile industry faces a major chal-lenge in meeting Federal Government mandatesfor improved fuel economy, lower emissions,and greater safety. As a more competitive andless differentiated market for automobiles islikely to evolve, the smaller domestic manufac-turers will face severe financial difficulties, andtheir survival will be threatened.

The cost of automobile ownership and opera-tion (in constant dol la rs) decreased s tead i lyfrom 1960 to 1973. However, the trend has re-versed since 1973 —due primarily to increasedfue l p r ices, h igher insurance costs, and in -creased cost of repairs and maintenance. Thetrends to 1985 and 2000 are uncertain, but Fed-eral Government policies and regulations couldbe major determinants in future cost changes.

INTRODUCTION

The public and private costs of the auto-mobile transportation system include the direct,private costs that individuals pay” to own,operate, and maintain a n automobile and the in-direct costs that individu als pay in the form of taxes to support the system of streets and high-ways on which automoblies are operated. Thereare also social ccsts —borne by automobile usersand nonusers alike —which include air pollu-

tio)n, noise, highway death and injury disrup-tion of communities, negative impacts on thequality of life, and many more.

As these costs rise, or are perceived to rise,and as i t becomes necessary to budget limited

financial and material resources to attain an in-creasing number of social goals, three majorissues could emerge:

1. The distribution of public funds for theautomobile transportation system,

2. The appropriate role of the Federal Gov-ernment with respect to the automobileand highway industry, and

3. The private costs of owning and operating

an automobile.

Underlying these issues are fundamental ques-tions about whether the Federal Governmentshould intervene to affect future automobile

25 1

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system characteristics and use and, if so, forwhat purposes, to what extent, and by whatmeans.

Historically, the Federal Government’s role inthe automobile transportation system has beenlimited to providing financial support for devel-oping and maintaining the highway system.Since 1956, Federal support has totaled approx-

imately $109 billion. Recently, however, theeconomic and social costs of developing andmaintaining the highway system have risen andthe awareness of the social costs of the auto-mobile transportation system has grown. Ques-tions have been raised as to whether and howthe Federal Government should extend its in-volvement and financial support to achieveother goals related to the personal transporta-tion system. In this assessment, a general exami-nation was made of the process and mechanismsused to finance the highway system and of thedistribution of the Federal Government’s finan-

cial support for highways and other personaltransportation modes.

The automobile has a pervasive impact on thenational economy. It accounts for about one-fourth of our petroleum use. Investment in thefederally aided road system has added approx-imately $26 billion to the gross national prod-uct. About one out of every six to eight workersis employed in an industry related to the auto-mobile. For every 250,000 new car sales lost, itis claimed that automobile manufacturers layoff an estimated 21,000 workers and that the

automobile-related industries lay off another41,000. Thus, policies affecting the automobileindustry have profound consequences for theeconomy.

To change the characteristics of the auto-mobile transportation system, the Federal Gov-ernment has customarily relied on regulationsand performance standards and has left to theauto industry the tasks of acquiring capital anddeveloping the technology to comply with Gov-ernment standards. Recently mandated fuel-economy standards will force manufacturers to

produce a greater proportion of smaller, light-weight automobiles. This will curtail the widevariety of product sizes characteristic of theAmerican automobile market and increase thecom p et it ion b e tw e e n d o m e s t ic a n d f or e ig nmanufacturers.

The smaller domestic manufacturers will haveproblems competing in this market and raising

the capital necessary to finance the requirementsfor fuel-economy, emissions, and safety stand-ards. Consequently, their economic viabilityand the present structure of the industry areseriously threatened. The interrelationship be-tween the automobile industry and the nationaleconomy raises the issue of whether the FederalGovernment should seek to preserve or changethe structure of the automobile industry,

Over 80 percent of all households own one ormore vehicles, each of which is driven an aver-age of 25 miles per day. The direct and indirectpersonal costs of owning and operating these

vehicles include the costs of gasoline and oil,maintenance and repair, motor vehicle taxes,credit, property damage, lost wages and medi-cal expenses due to accidents, and insurancepremiums. The total cost of private transporta-tion over the last 9 years has increased about 66percent—5 percent less than the cumulative ef-fect of inflation. However, some components of automobile cost—repairs, maintenance, and in-surance—have increased almost 90 percen t ,which is greater than the rate of inflation,

Total automobile-related costs account for an

increasing share of the household budget, sincethe number of households owning more thanone car has increased and the number withoutcars has declined. In all but the lowest-incomefamilies, automobile-related expenditures rankas the second or third largest expenditure. Be-cause of the public’s dependence on the auto-mobile transportation system for mobility andbecause of the size of the personal financial in-vestment in the automobile, the question arisesas to whether the Federal Government shouldintervene to influence the individual cost of ownership and use.

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.q

q

q

and receives approximately 10 percent of Feder-al funding—$800 million in FY 1978.56

The influence of the Federal Government onthe Nation’s transportation and highway systemis greater than its financial contribution to theFederal-aid system alone might suggest. Underthe Federal Highway Act of 1966, the Secretaryof Transportation was authorized to developstandards and criteria for Fedinvestment in

transportation facilities. By making Federal-aidcontingent on State compliance with specifiedconditions and regulations, the Federal Govern-ment can influence the extent, design, quality,and use of the road system. Through the financ-ing process and the fundin g mechanisms used tochannel investments into highways, the FederalGovernment can also influence the distributionof the costs of developing and maintaining thesystem. The Federal Government’s influenceover the highwa y system has grown, and can beexpected to continue to grow in the future, asthe number of specific-purpose programs in-creases. 7

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Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings q255

In view of the extent of the highway systemand the Federal Government’s role in its devel-opment, it is easy to understand how Federal in-vestment in highways has become a major poli-cy issue. This was not always the case, how-ever. In the earliest days of highway building,the major policy question was how to get theFederal Government involved in the develop-ment of highways. Although the Constitutionprovided the authority to establish nationalhighways, the Federal Government used this au-thority only reluctantly in response to ad hocneeds and pressures, some of which were onlytangentially related to transportation.

In the early years of the automobile, the Gov-ernment was pressed to increase its financialcommitment to roadbuilding to improve per-sonal mobility, to overcome the economic andsocial isolation of rural areas, to alleviate thecongested conditions of urban life, and to stimu-late the economic development of major parts of

the country. The benefits of highway construc-tion appeared to outweigh the costs. Popularsupport for Federal aid to highway developmentc u l m i n a t e d in 1956 with the passage of theHighway Act and the Highway Revenue Act.

The highway legislation of 1956 significantlyincreased the Federal Government’s Financialcontribution to the highway program, but thefunding soon fell far short of requirements. Thecosts of constructing the Interstate System wereseverely underestimated, and the projected re-ceipts from the highway user taxes were over-

estimated. Within 2 years after passage of thelaw, it was clear that additional measures wererequired to meet rising costs.

During the next two decades, the gap betweentax receipts and highway expenditures wasclosed by increasing the rate of taxation and byextending the l ife of the program. Thus, ineconomic terms alone, the Interstate Systemdeveloped into a very different program fromthe one Congress originally anticipated. Whathad been projected to be a highway system con-structed over a period of 15 years at a cost of

$27 billion became a$184

billion highway pro-gram spanning a period of 35 years. 8

There was a lso a growing disil lusionment

with some of the purported benefits of highwayconstruction. Highway building did not, for ex-ample, reduce congestion on city streets, as thesponsors had predicted. By the late 1960’s, therewas mounting evidence that the expansion of highway facilities had increased highway usewithout solving the problem of congestion.

Ne w so c ia l a n d e n v i ro n me n ta l c o n c e rn s

added to the dissatisfaction with the highwayprogram. The automobile’s contribution to airpollution was not fully understood in 1956. Q

Ten years later, however, as the connection be-tween air quality and automobile use was estab-lished, environmentalists joined the growingranks of those disenchanted with highways.

While recent economic, social, and environ-mental developments have contributed to areconsideration of our national highway policy,nothing has dramatized the issues as much asthe battle over the segments of the Interstate

System in urban areas. Highway opponents,concerned about social and environmental im-pacts of highway building on urban life, beganto protest new highway construction in the late1960’s. In their eyes, th e extension of h i g h w a y sinto urban areas has caused a series of social iIlsthat threaten the viability of city life.

More and more people began to question theFederal Government’s policy of what appearedto them to be unlimited support for highwayconstruction. By 1970, i t was almost impossibleto get a major highway program approved inmost large American cities. 10 Highway oppo-nents gained the ears of policy makers during the1973-74 oil embargo, when it suddenly became

apparent that the world could be shifting froman era of relative abundance of energy to one of relative scarcity.

As the Interstate System nears completion, areevaluation of the Federal-Aid Highway Pro-gram may be in order. While the legislators of 1956 were concerned with how to provide fundsto stimulate highway construction, those of to-day are concerned with how to use the FederalGovernment’s resources to devise a balanced

transportation program reflecting all of society’sneeds. Several policies to make more efficientand equitable use of the Federal Government’s

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Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings q257

The extent to which the Highway RevenueiAct generated funds for highway constructioncan be seen by looking at how Federal aid fortransport at i on h a s b e e n d i s t r ib u te d a mo n gmodes for the years 1955 to 1975. As can be seenfrom table 114, almost two-thirds of all Federal

outlays for transportation were for highways.Highway programs accounted for 98 percent of all Federal aid for ground transportation. 16

Before 1956, only 50 percent of all Federal aidfor transportation went to highways. By 1960,the figure was almost 100 percent. Ten yearsafter the passage of the 1956 highway legisla-tion, Federal highway assistance had increasedmore than 5 times. 17 The readily available fund-ing undoubtedly stimulated the construction of highways, which was the intent of the law.

Despite the skyrocketing costs of building the

Federal-aid highway system, the Government

did not begin to reevaluate its highway policyuntil the late 1960’s. And, even then, this policyreevaluation was undertaken not so much inresponse to the increasing financial cost of thesystem as to the growing appreciation of someof the social costs involved in highway con-

struction.

Ironica lly , whi le a t t r ibu t ing many of oursocial problems to highway construction, somepeople have begun to view the Highway TrustFund in an entirely new light. Once consideredto be the inexhaustible source of funding respon-sible for an unbalanced national transportationpolicy, the Highway Trust Fund is now viewedby some as a potential resource for meeting theNation’s total transportation needs. Mass tran-sit advocates, urban officials, and transporta-tion planners are calling for increased flexibility

in highway financing and are asking for a shareof the Trust Fund to finance mass transportationprograms.

The move towards greater flexibility in high-way financing began in 1968 when Congress

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first provided Federal assistance for publictransportation as a part of highway legislation.Greater flexibility in highway financing wasalso achieved by increasing the number of pro-grams eligible for financial assistance from theHighway Trust Fund. 18 This trend is apparent inthe summary of major highway legisla tionshown in table 115.

Despite the trend towards greater flexibility,

Congress has been unable to agree on a method

“In the late 1%0’s, Congress authorized a ma)or set of highwaybeautiticati(>n an d satety programs to be iinanced from the TrustF u n d . By 1974, thest’ pr [>grams had proliferated to the point thatCongress ha d t(> make 55 separate authorizations for highwav-

related program+. These new aut h(>rizations included programs forec{~nom ic deve] (Jpmen t growth centers, bridge safety, rail grade-

cr(wslngs seen ic highways, haza rd(>us locations, and removal ot

rc~adslcfe (>bstacies, Nfc>re recently, Congress instituted a programt(] resurface <~lder ~egments ot the Interstate System. In addition,wvera I establlshecf programs (e, g , torest highways} have beentransferred t{) th e Highway Trust Fund.

of highway financing. Although the 1976 High-way Act extended construction of the InterstateSystem to 1990, the Highway Trust Fund wasextended only until 1979. By extending theHighway Trust Fund temporarily, Congress de-ferred the decision on its long-term future. Intaking such an action, Congress had no inten-tion of postponing a discussion of the issues in-volved in highway financing. The conferees ex-

plicitly stated that:The extension of the interstate program through1990 does not ad dress the qu estion of the sourceof fund s for construction du ring that pr ogram.The conferees expect that during the next Con-gress methods of financing highway construc-tion will be considered .

19

1 ‘U.S. Congress, House , Federa l Aid Highway Ac t , HouseReport 94-1017 to Accompany H.R. 8235, 94th Congress, 2d sess.,

Apr. 7, 1976, cited in U.S. C(}ngress, Congressional Budget Office,Highway Assistance Programs, p. 62,

Table 114.—Size and Distribution of Federal Appropriations for Transportation, 1955-75

(millions of dollars)

Agency or program 1955 1960 1965 1970 1972 1975 a

Department ofTransportation

Highway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . $636 $2,978 $4,069 $4,507 $4,923 $5,020Aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 508 756 1,223 1,834 2,120Railroad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 3 17 57 267Coast Guard. . . . . . . . . . . 190 238 367 588 661 903Urban mass transit . . . . . 0 0 11 106 327 1,351Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0 23 -8 22 6Offsetting receipts . . . . . 0 0 -20 -16 -19 —

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . 950 3,727 5,209 6,417 7,805 9,667Other agencies . . . . . . . . . . 342 539 818 715 986 1,153

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,292 $4,266 $6,027 $7,168 $8,791 $10,820

Table 115.— Legislation Relating to Highway Financing

Federal Aid Highway Act of 1968 . . . . . Provided Federal assistance to local governments to help financeparking lots serving carpools and bus patrons.

Highway Act of 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Extended Federal aid for highway transit by permitting the use ofurban highway funds for the development of exclusive bus lanes andother nonraiI public transportation faciIities.

Highway Act of 1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Permitted local governments to substitute mass transportationprojects for unwanted, withdrawn segments of urban interstates.(Such projects were, however, to be financed from general funds.)

Highway Act of 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refined and liberalized the provisions of the 1973 Act, making $800million of Trust Fund monies available for urban systems, to be usedeither in highway construction or for mass transit projects.

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Policy Options

Continuation of the Highway Trust Fund.—Supporters of the Highway Trust Fund arguethat it provides an effective, equitable, and effi-cient m echanism f or s ec u r in g fu n d s a n dallocating the costs of highway construction.T ru s t fu n d f in a n c in g p ro v id e s a c o n t in u a lsource of funding for, and assurance of, a long-

term Federal commitment to the national systemof highways. 20-21State and local governments

require assurance of a long-term Federal com-mitment if they are to be induced to invest theirown resources. Trust funds are one way to giveth is guaran tee , bo th as to the magnitude o f funding and the length of commitment.

Most supporters of the Highway Trust Fundresist proposals that would diminish the fundsavailable for highways. They also oppose thegrowing practice of including new programs, re-gardless of their nature, among those financed

by the Fund. Typical of this position is that of the Automobile Association of America:

Since 1956 the Highway Trust Fund has beenburdened with the expense of many transporta-tion activities far beyond those envisioned w henthe Trust Fund was established. AAA believesthat the Trust Fund should be used only for theconstruction and improvement of the InterstateSystem and th e urban and rural primary arterialnetworks.

22

The traditional defense of the Highway TrustFund is that the dedication of the user taxes to

highway expenditures makes them legitimate inthe eyes of the public. It is argued that dedicateduser taxes are the most equitable and efficientmethod for distributing the costs of highwayconstruction and highway use. Many econo-mists agree. For example, in testimony beforethe Senate Committee on Environment and Pub-

Ch. 9—Cost and Capita/ Issues, Policies, and Findings q 25 9

lic Works, Alice Rivlin, Director of the Con-gressional Budget Office, noted:

User charges represent a way of recapturingfrom the actual beneficiaries some of the costs tothe general public. Levying user charges pro-motes economic efficiency because users pay,directly or indirectly, for the services theyreceive. Proper incentives are provided, sinceheavier use imposes greater costs on the users,and at the sam e time, generates revenues to ex-pand facilities.

23

Opponents of the Highway Trust Fund andthe present system of highway financing haveproposed alternative methods and mechanisms.Their criticisms of the Highway Trust Fund canbest be seen by examining the alternatives theyhave advanced.

Financing Highway-Related ExpendituresFrom General Funds.—Basic to all of the argu-ments calling for an elimination of the HighwayTrust Fund, is the belief that all Federal pro-grams should compete in the marketplace of po lit ica l, economic, and soc ia l ideas . I t i sargued that, by providing earmarked funding,the Highway Trust Fund encourages the build-ing of highways at the expense of other trans-portation modes. ” If transportation facilitiesare to be made available to everyone at thelowest cost to society, the costs and benefits of using alternative modes in different situationsmust be weighed. This would require replacingthe Highway Trust Fund with a more flexiblefunding mechanism. ”

Trust fund financing also makes it difficult forCongress to make transportation decisions inthe light of other societal values. Highway pro-grams, for example, affect energy, environmen-tal, and land development polic ies. Somegroups feel that as long as highway financingdecisions are made outside the normal budget-ary process, they will not reflect total nationalneeds. 26

The Highway Trust Fund circumvents thenormal congressional budgetary process. Since

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the Highway Trust Fund obtains its revenuesfrom earmarked taxes, the budgetary authorityfor any year depends on the receipts depositedin the Fund and not on a congressional authori-zation. Congress, therefore, has almost no wayto a sse r t b u d g e ta ry c o n t ro l o v e r h ig h wa yfinancing. One way of achieving such controlwould be to eliminate the Highway Trust Fund.The highway programs then would competewith other transportation programs—as well aswith all other federally aided programs—for therevenues of the general treasury.

A Transpor ta t ion Trust Fund .—The im-balance in the present transportation system isattributed by some, not to the existence of theHighway Trust Fund, but to the lack of similartrust funds for other modes.27 They advocateconversion of the Highway Trust Fund into auser-financed, general transportation fund, inpart because gasoline taxes are well-establishedand because their justification is greater than

ever in view of the Nation’s long-term energyneeds. With the establishment of such a fund,transportation decisions would no longer bedistorted in favor of highways. Modal decisionscould be based on a comparative, cost-benefitanalysis.

The concept of a transportation trust fund hassome drawbacks, While it might facilitate devel-opment of a coordinated, multimodal transpor-tation policy, it could not guarantee a specificFederal commitment to any particular mode. Asa system of financing, a transportation trust

fund is subject to the same crit ic ism as theHighway Trust Fund—that is , a trust fundwould be inflexible in the face of changingsocietal needs and would be exempt from thenormal congressional process of budgetary con-t r o l .28 There is a lso a question of whether i twould be politically feasible. Various institu-tions have been erected around every transpor-tation mode at all levels of government—eachwith its own distinct organizational needs andpriorities. Because of these institutional bar-riers, a policy providing for a common trans-p o r ta t io n fu n d - might ‘be difficult to

ment.29

A Trust Fund for Each M o d e . — A n a l t e r -native popular among mass transit advocates isestablishment of individual trust funds for eachtransportation mode. The advocates of multipletrust funds point to the success of the HighwayTrust Fund as the rationale for extending thisapproach to other modes. The argument used tosupport this proposal is the same as that used tosupport the Highway Trust Fund: State andlocal governments need assurance of a long-term Federal commitment. Since all modes of transportation have long-term development andconstruction requirements, a ll should be fi-nanced through trust fund mechanisms.

Representative James Howard, Chairman of the House Public Works Committee and spon-sor of legislation designed to bring highway andmass transit under one authorization but twoseparate funds, has argued thus:

Mass transit has been a m ess for years, not onlybecause there has not been a sufficient amountof money available, but the money was avail-able on a general revenue basis. We will neverget a sensible, forward -looking m ass transit p ro-gram u ntil we get a trust fund for mass transit.

30

The advocates of a mass transit trust fundbelieve that the need for assured funding isgreater than the need to make intermodal trans-portation decisions.

Opponents of individual trust funds believethat this approach could lead to an inflexiblesystem of financing. Since each fund would befinanced from earmarked revenues, investment

decisions for one mode would be made withouthaving compared the costs and benefits of in-vesting in other transportation modes. Estab-lishment of individual trust funds might alsopromote creation of new organizations and bu-reaucracies. In time, these organizations wouldd e v elop th ei r o wn in st itu t io n al in tere st s inmaintaining the system and could resist change.

One major difference between the proposedmass transit fund and the Highway Trust Fundis the source of funding. Since most mass transitsystems are presently operating at a deficit, it is

unlikely that a mass transit fund could be sus-tained by user taxes.

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The arguments for and against each of thefour policy options are summarized in table 116.

In evaluating these policy options, it is impor-tant to remember that the Highway Trust Fundis not the equivalent of either the highway pro-gram or the highway financing process. Even if the Highway Trust Fund were dissolved, high-way user taxes might be maintained, for exam-

ple, and deposited in the general treasury fund.As the early history of the highway programdemonstrates, it is not necessary to have a trustfund in order to link user taxes to highway ex-penditures. Similarly, long-term authorizationscould be, and have been, made within the con-text of the congressional budgetary process.

Highway Maintenance

Another issue that could have a significant ef-fect on the future of the highway transportationsystem is highway maintenance. Each year, Fed-eral, State, and local governments spend ap-proximately one-fourth of all highway funds tomaintain the 3.3 million miles of national high-

ways. Highway maintenance has traditionallybeen the responsibility of State and local gov-ernments—a quid pro quo for receiving Federalaid. As long as the federally aided highway sys-tems were relatively small, the States were ableto fulfill their obligations without undue hard-ship. In fact, the State governments consistently

Table 11 6.—Advantages and Disadvantages of Transportation Financing Options

Opt ions ‘-Advantages Disadvantages ‘-

Continuation of present policy . . . Continual source of funds. Slow to respond to changing needs.

Long-term commitment. Unsuitable as a framework forSystem already in place. comparing costs and benefits.Relatively equitable distribution Exempt from budgetary control.

of costs. Procedural discrimination againstother modes.

Unified TransportationTrust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Continual source of funds.

Long-term commitment totransportation.

Elimination of proceduraldiscrimination among modes.

Facilitates the developmentof a coordinated, muItimodaltransportation policy.

Separate Trust Fundsfor each mode . . . . . . . . Provide equal access to trans-

portation funds for each mode.Provide assurance of long-term

Federal commitment.Politically appealing because

costs are least visible.

Financing for general funds. . . . . . Most responsive to changingneeds.

Eliminates procedural disc rim-

i nation i n competition forfunds.Suitable framework for comparing

costs and benefits of investing inal I transportation modes.

Subject to budgetary control.

Unable to provide long-termfinancial commitment to aparticular mode.

Slow to respond to changing needs.Exempt from normal budgetary

process.Present user taxes insufficient to

finance general transportation

fund.Institutional costs involved in dis-mantling present system.

Least flexible system of financing.Exempt from normal budgetary

process.Modal decisions would be

independent of other transporta-tion and societal decisions.

Create institutional rigidities.

Would entail transportationsubsidies.

Fails to provide guaranteed

financial commitment.Politically cost I y.

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rejected proposals that might reduce their re-sponsibilities for, and authority over, highwaymaintenance activities.

With the growth of the highway system andthe costs of maintaining it, the financial burdenon State and local governments has taken on un-foreseen proportions. The costs of maintenanceare likely to increase further in the future, as the

number of vehicle miles traveled rises and asmany of the highways built in the last 20 yearsnear the end of their service lives. If the presentrate of deterioration continues, the investmentin the national highway system will be signifi-cantly depreciated, and the costs of rehabilita-tion greatly increased. Steps must be taken topreserve the system if it is to continue providingthe same level of service as today. Thus, thequestion is raised as to whether the Federal Gov-ernment should—even in the face of State oppo-sition—assume part of the burden of maintain-ing its investment in the Nation’s highways.

Present Policy

The Federal-Aid Highway Program providesfor building, improving, and maintaining high-ways. These tasks have been divided by law intothe categories of construction and maintenance.Highway construction includes new construc-tion, reconstruction, and highway betterment.Betterment, in turn, includes the tasks of resur-facing, restoration, and rehabilitation of roadsor bridge decks as necessary for safe and effi-cient utilization. 31

Maintenance is usually defined as “the preser-vation of the entire highway, including surface,shoulders, roadsides, structures, and any trafficcontrol devices that are necessary for its safeand efficient utilization. “32 The ambiguity of thedefinition of maintenance has led to varied andcontroversial interpretations. In practice, theterm maintenance has come to mean all thosehighway-related tasks that do not fit within anyspecific construction category .33 While the Fed-

eral Government is primarily responsible for fi-nancing and setting standards for the construc-tion of the highway system, the States bear soleresponsibility for maintenance.

The States have been responsible for mainte-nance since the beginning of the Federal-AidHighway Program. The Federal Aid Road Actof 1916 assigned to the States responsibility for

maintaining all roads constructed under the pro-visions of that Act. The States’ duty to maintainthe federally aided roads was reiterated in 1921,the last time that the Federal-State division of labor for highway responsibility was contested.

In the Highway Act of 1921, the Secretary of Agriculture was authorized to place the high-ways “in proper condition of maintenance, ”charging the costs against a State’s allotmentfrom Federal funds and prohibiting further proj-ects until the Federal Government had been re-imbursed for the maintenance expenses. This

rarely invoked clause was amended by the Fed-eral Highway Act of 1950, which provided thatthe Federal Highway Administra tion could,after 90 days notification, withhold approval of further Federal-aid projects until the States hadsatisfactorily completed maintenance work.

The Federal Highway Administra tion hasnever used its authority to withhold funds. Norhas it prescribed standards for highway mainte-nance. s4 Although the Federal Government hasbeen reluctant to interfere with State jurisdic-tion over highway maintenance, the existing in-

sti tutional framework is f lexible enough toallow the Federal Government to assume a moreactive role in this area.

Despite increased outlays for highways by alllevels of government in recent years, highwayshave been deteriorating 50 percent faster thanthey are being restored .35 A review of the factorsunderlying this trend will help to illustrate themagnitude and urgency of the highway mainte-nance problem.

The accelerated rate of highway deteriorationcan be accounted for, in part, by the rate of in-

flation. Since 1967, State highway maintenancecosts have increased at an annual rate of 7.3 per-

wc)uld Include such act ivltles as r (~u t]ne patching, bridge painting,an d rem(~val 01 ~n~lw an d ice.

‘Ibid , p. 0.‘rl Ibid.

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Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings q 263

cent. The largest share of the increase is attribu-table to rising material and equipment costs.

Despite a twofold increase in annual expendi-tures for maintenance in the years between 1967and 1976, the amount of real maintenance pur-chased—in terms of today’s purchasing power-—was only 7 percent. 36 This 7-percent increasein real maintenance expenditures contrastssharply with the 41-percent increase in VMT,the 37-percent increase in the number of cars onthe road, and the 88-percent increase in thenumber of trucks on the road.

The development of the Interstate System hasalso added to the States’ highway maintenanceburden. Interstate funds could not be used for

reconstruction until 1976 and even then, only ona very limited basis. States responded to thefavorable 90/ 10 matching ratio for new high-way construction by building new roads instead

Photo Creditf Sydec

of maintaining existing roads.37 Acknowledgingthat the States’ responsibility for maintainingthe Interstate System has reached sizable and

unanticipated proportions, the Department of Transportation, in the 1974 Transportation Re-port, noted that:

As the Interstate System approaches comple-tion, the costs of maintenance represent an in-creasingly larger share of State highw ay expen-ditures. This expense over the life of the Systemis expected to be more than dou ble the States’ in-itial capital investm ent in the System.

38

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System. Under the 1956 Highway Act, no vehi-cle weighing more than 18,000 pounds on asingle axle, 32,000 pounds on a tandem axle, orhaving a gross weight of over 73,OOO p o u n d scould use the Interstate System. When the Fed-eral-Aid Amendment to the Highway Act raisedthe limits to 20,000 pounds on a single axle,34,000 pounds on a tandem axle, and 80,000pounds gross weight in an effort to save energy,

an estimate was made of the potential mainte-nance and capital costs involved. Testifyingbefore Congress, Federal Highway Adminis-trator Tiemann pointed out that size and weightincreases on the order of those proposed wouldincrease highway maintenance costs by $40million (adjusted to 1977 dollars) and would in-crease combined capital and maintenance costsby $2OO million .39

The combined effects of rising inflation, ex-pansion of the highway system, and the increasein the size of vehicles authorized to use the

system have contributed to the steady rise of State expenditures for highway maintenance. Inthe years between 1967 and 1976, for example,State expenditures on highway maintenance andrelated operational expenditures tripled from$1.1 billion to $3.3 billion. Because of these in-creases in the size of maintenance and othernoncapita l highway expenditures, a smallershare of the total highway disbursements is be-ing devoted to cap i ta l improvements . (Seefigure 47. )

‘*U.S. Congres+, Senate, Committee on I’ublic Works( Heur[t]gs

OH Truck S/z~Js atId Weights, 93d Cong., 2d sess., Feb. 20, 1 9 7 4 ,

Part 2, p. 20.

The trend in the distribution of State highwaydisbursements is almost identical to that fortotal disbursements. State governments havetraditionally provided about 80 percent of allcapital expenditures for highways but, in recentyears, they have been unable to sustain this pro-portion of investment. The share of State budg-ets available for capital expenditures has de-creased from 71 percent in 1962 to 58 percent in1974, as the costs of maintenance, adminis-tration, law enforcement, and debt service haveincreased. Continued decline in the level of capital improvement will, over time, increasethe ra te a t which highways deteriorate andcause the long-range costs of highway main-tenance to rise.

Projections under Base Case conditions sug-gest that these trends will continue. For exam-ple, it is assumed in the Base Case that a portionof the capital expenditures for highways will be

used for the scheduled completion of the In-terstate System by 1990. The cumulative capitalexpenditures from 1976 to 2000 are projected tototal $257 billion in 1975 dollars. About $ 3 8

billion of this amount would be required forcompletion of the Interstate System. The re-mainder is assumed to be expended on otherhighway systems in proportion to historic pat-terns. Increasingly more of the expenditures of the diminishing capital programs for all systemswould be devoted to reconstruction of existingobsolete pavement and structures. The effectwould be a decline in highway system per-

formance.

Table 11 7.— Historical and Projected Distribution of Highway Disbursements

Total highway State highwaydisbursements (percent) disbursements (percent)

1965 1975 1985 2000 1965 1975 1985 “ 2000

Capital . . . . . . . . . . 58 51 38 25 69 61 47 28Maintenance . . . . . 23 25 32 35 14 16 23 31Administration . . . 5 7 9 13 5 6 9 13Law enforcement . 4 7 11 17 7 11 17

Debt service. . . . . . 10 10 10 10 8 10 10 10

SOURCE F/lghway Staff st/cs through 1975, Sydec protections to 2000

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00

90

70

60

40

30

20

10

Figure 47.—Historical and Projected Distribution of Total Highway Disbursements

.

.

.

.

Maintenance

1 I

I 1 1 1 I

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

I

OURCE /-1/gliway Stat/sllcs through 1975 Sydec projections to 2000q

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In the Base Case, maintenance and other non-capital expenditures are assumed to increase 1p e rc e n t p e r y e a r a s a p ro p o r t io n o f to ta lexp en d itures. T h e in c re a sed m i lea g e o f in -terstate and other new highways over the last 20years will also add to the costs of maintenanceas these roads age. Vehicle miles of travel willin c re a se mo re r a p id ly th a n th e su p p ly o f highways, placing additional demands on the

maintenance budget. Consequently, under BaseCase conditions, maintenance expenditures perlane-mile are expected to increase from the 1975levels of $2,627 to $3,180 in 1985 and to $3,936in 2000 in 1975 dollars.

Policy Options

The following have been identified as policyoptions to deal with the problem of highwaymaintenance:

q

q

q

q

q

q

Improve highway maintenance throughmanagement training, promotion and dem-onstrations of new ideas, and research anddevelopment.

Establish Federal maintenance standardsand a process of Federal inspection or Stateinspections to meet Federal standards.

Divert revenues from an increased user taxon gasoline to State and local governmentsfor capital and maintenance expenditures.

Incorporate maintenance as well as capital

programs in the highway planning process.Increase categorical funding and promotelow-capital expenditures.

Permit the transfer of funds from capitalcategories to maintenance activities.

Provide block grants to States—with pass-through provisions for localities to be usedon any reasonable mix of maintenancew o r k o r , a lt er n at iv ely , p r ov id e b lo ckgrants directly to localities.

The arguments for and against a more activerole for the Federal Government in highwaymaintenance have been summarized below toindicate the range of policy questions that willhave to be addressed.

Arguments in Favor of an Increased FederalRole in Highway Maintenance.—

q

Given the size of the social and economicinvestment in the highway system, the Fed-eral Government should act to preservethat system.

The highway dollar is under intense pres-

sure from mass transit advocates, environ-mentalists, p lanners, and local govern-ments. Matching funds for highway construction have become scarce, and Statesare reluctant to obligate the recently re-leased impounded funds because of match-ing requirements. To free sufficient fundsfor a fully balanced highway program,States must be relieved of the entire mainte-nance burden.

State and local governments need assist-ance to offset the effects of inflation and the

inability of State user and property taxes tokeep pace with needs.

State legisla tures have reduced mainte-nance expenditures in favor o f cap i ta lexpenditures to take advantage of Federalaid available for capital projects.

Th e p re se n t, loo sely ma n a g ed h igh wa ymaintenance program would be more effec-tive if it were subjected to standards and in-spection requirements in exchange for Fed-eral aid.

Federal aid for maintenance would provideState and local governments with greaterflexibility in developing a proper mix be-tween maintenance and capital investment.

The 3R program provides evidence thatmaintenance projects can be adequatelycoordinated and promoted at all levels of government.

Maintenance of Federal-a id highways is

c u r re n t ly r e q u i re d b y S ta te s , a n d th eFHWA is authorized to review the ade-q u a c y o f S ta te ma in te n a n c e p ro g ra ms .Thus, policies providing for an increasedFederal role are compatible with the institu-tional division of responsibility.

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Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings q 267

Arguments Against an Increased Federal Rolein Highway Maintenance. —

Since State and local governments are closeto the problems, only they can provide aflexible response to diversified local needs.

There is historical precedent for State andlocal governments to maintain their ownstreets and roads.

Federal aid for maintenance will unnec-essarily increase red tape.

Federal aid for highway maintenance willincrease Federal control of accounting pro-ced ures, d i sb u r se m en t s, a n d p r og r ammixes.

There are no adequate work-performancemeasurements or standards for highwaymaintenance.

Maintenance activities are carried out by avariety of work forces—State and localforces, private contractors, convict labor—making standardization almost impossible.

Federal aid to maintenance would divertfunds from the effort to complete the In-terstate System.

Unanticipated maintenance work such asthe damage to highways created by stormsor accidents cannot be planned or stand-ardized.

Congestion Cost= Pricing

During the 1950’s and 1960’s, highway con-gestion was considered the major transportationproblem, and highway construction was thepreferred means of dealing with it. In the 1970’showever, attitudes changed and highway con-struction came to be viewed by many as thecause of serious social problems. The highwaybuilding program was also criticized from thestandpoint of equity. It was argued that thecosts of building and maintaining additionallanes to deal with congestion are really com-

muter subsidies, since commuters are not taxedin proportion to their share of the costs.

As the economic costs of construction con-tinue to escalate and as the social costs of highway building are reassessed, new strategies

to cope with congestion are being sought. Onesuch strategy, which aims to provide both in-creased capacity and a more equitable distribu-tion of the cost of highway mobility, is thepolicy of congestion cost-pricing.

Factors and Trends Affecting Congestion

The problem of congestion is not an evenly

distributed one geographically. Congestion hasrarely been a problem in rural areas, exceptaround major recreational sites. In urban areas,congestion is most severe during morning andafternoon hours on roads that serve high- densi-ty activity centers. Even within cities, the con-gested area is usually only a small part of themetropolitan region (typically less than 10 per-cent), and periods of congestion usually totalonly 4 to 6 hours per day. 40

Given their present low levels of congestion,rural highways could accommodate future in-creases in the number of vehicle miles trav-eled—predicted to be in the range of 60 percentfor a ll rural highways—without significantchanges in average speeds. In urban areas, how-ever, the picture is quite different. Increasedgrowth in highway travel projected for the next25 years will result in more congestion in urbanareas. 41 As figure 48 indicates, this growth willoccur on roads that already carry a large per-centage of urban auto travel. Figure 49 indicatesthat there will be large speed decreases on theseroads, and their current speed advantages overother highways will be considerably reduced.

The proportion of urban interstate highwaytravel occurring under congested conditions isprojected to increase from about 10 percent in1975 to about 34 percent in the year 2000. Figure48 also shows that for “other freeways and ex-pressways” in urban areas, travel under con-gested conditions is projected to increase fromabout 11 percent of VMT per day to 30 percent.This means that the typical urban motorist inthe year 2000 can expect to encounter stop-and-go traffic on freeways about 3 times as often astoday.

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Figure 48.—Total Urban Automobile Travel Under Congested Conditions for1975, 1985, and 2000

Interstatehighways

643

r447

288340/0

r

180/0

1 00/0r

1975 1985 2000

Minor

331 I

80/0 1 00/0

564

220/0

Other freewaysand expressways

382f

262

170+

300/0,

180/01 10/0

t 1q

Collectors

259

150

70/01 50/0

50/0 I

Other principal

796

465

L160/0

606

290/o

21 0/0a

1985 2000

million miles/day

congestedconditions

1975 1985 2000 1975 1985 2000

SOURCE: Sydec EEA, p, 77

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Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies,

Figure 49.—Projected Average Speed in Urban Areas

.

.

.

I I I I i

and Findings q 26 9

Other freewaysinterstate

freeways

Other principalarterials

Minor arterialsCollectors

Local roads

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

SOURCE SydeclEEA, P III-79Year

Present Policies

Because urban congestion was not consideredto be a major transportation problem until the1950’s, Federal highway policy was aimed not atrelieving congestion in the cities, but at connect-ing isolated rural areas. Provisions for a con-

tinuing urban area highway program were firstcontained in the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1944. 42 The need to build urban highways was

reaffirmed with the establishment of the In-tersta te Highway Program, which allocated9,249 miles to the urban system.

From the beginning, however, there was dis-agreement as to whether the urban systemshould be designed primarily to extend intercity

highways into urban areas or to serve thespecific needs of metropolitan areas. ds At theheart of the justif ication for the urban in-terstate was the argument that the construction

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—

plann ing pr oject.’” The Office of Service andMethods Demonstration in the Urban MassTransporta tion Administra tion (UMTA) has

been actively involved in developing such aproject since 1974. A panel representing severalGovernment agencies and private concerns, allinterested in mass transportation, energy, andthe environment, has been established to pro-vide advice. 51

In the demonstration project, a congestedarea of the city will be designated an “area of ex-periment” during certain hours of heavy travel.Private automobile drivers, wishing to drive inthis area during peak hours, will be required topurchase and display a license.5z The Office of

S e rv ic e a n d Me th o d s De mo n s t ra t io n s h a sadopted criteria for selection and has conducted

a preliminary screening of candidate cities. Pre-liminary sketch designs will be made in approx-imately three to five cities, and actual im-

plementation will be carried out in a t leastone. 53

In conjunction with FHWA and EPA, UMTAis evaluating the congestion pricing scheme inuse in Singapore. They are also condu cting astudy to determine the potentia l of parkingpolicies for reducing the use of low-occupancyvehicles in congested areas. 54

Effects and Impacts

If the arguments in support of congestioncost-pricing are valid, why has no local govern-

ment sought to implement such a program in aneffort to reduce automobile congestion? The re-luctance of local officials to institute road- pric-

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ing appears to be related to its potential reper-cussions. Although the economists’ assertionthat congestion cost-pricing will have net socialbenefits might be true, such a policy is likely tohave impacts and costs that are not equallydistributed.

Automobi le use rs wi l l be most a f fec ted .Those who continue to drive, in spite of the con-

gestion charges imposed, will pay a fee thatmight or might not outweigh the value that theyplace on the t ime saved or the convenienceg a in e d . ss Even if motorists value their t imehighly, they are likely to resent the impositionof congestion fees. Some drivers will be forcedto forego trips in congested areas during peakhours.

Businessmen and the owners of parking facil-ities in downtown areas would also be directlyaffected by the imposition of congestion chargesalthough the degree of impact would depend on

other variables, such as the existence and conve-nience of a lternate modes of transporta tion.Lacking empirical evidence, it is difficult topredict exactly how a road-pric ing schemewould affect business in downtown areas. How-ever, what is important to local politicians is thebelief of local businessmen that their interestswould be impaired.

Current transit r iders, who have to sharefacilities with additional riders, would also beaffected by a policy of congestion cost-pricing.Some of the burden on public transportationmight be eliminated if there were more room onhighways for high-occupancy vehicles and if road-pricing revenues were channeled into theimprovement a n d e x p a n s io n o f a l t e rn a t iv emodes of transportation.

Since congestion is not evenly distributed, thequestion of how much money the Federal Gov-ernment should spend to reduce the problem isalso likely to be an issue. If the funding avail-able for all highway-related needs remains moreor less the same, then any money spent on re-ducing congestion will beat the expense of otherhighway-rela ted programs. In this sense, a llthose who are not the direct beneficiaries of con-gestion cost-pricing—rural dwellers and non-commuters, for example—would be negatively

affected, although in a minor way, since thefunding necessary to support such a schemewould be relatively small.

Any effort to predict the effects and impactsof a road-pricing policy would be speculative,since there have been no attempts to implementsuch a policy in the United States. To the extentthat the conditions in Singapore are comparableto those in the United States, some useful

Photo Credit U S Department of Transportatlon

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Ch 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings q273

lessons can be drawn from that city’s efforts toreduce traffic congestion. The World Bank hasmoni to red the p rogram and made an in i t ia levaluation, from which the following observa-tions are drawn. 50

In an effort to reduce congested conditionsand to prevent what, on the basis of growthtrends, was predicted to be an extreme level of

congestion, the City of Singapore instituted in1975 a program of road-pric ing designed toreduce peak-hour traffic by 25 to 30 percent.The traffic restraint scheme includes parkingfees, area licenses, and a park-and-ride systemto provide motorists with an alternative modeof transportation. To enter a designated areawhere congestion is to be reduced, a driver hasto display a supplementary license that can bebought in the post office or in other public serv-ice areas. Public transportation and other high-occupancy vehicles, including carpools, areexempt from the licensing requirement. Within

6 months after implementing the program, thevolume of traffic entering the restricted zonehad been reduced by 40 percent.

The Singapore experience was also judgedsuccessful in terms of the ease with which it wasimplemented. Although the park-and-ride facil-ities proved to be unpopular and the price of licenses may have been set too high initially, theprogram was relatively easy to administer andacceptable to the general public. Enforcementproved not to be a serious problem. Apart fromthe expense of constructing fringe parking facil-ities and erecting new signs, the cost of the pro-gram was approximately $3 million. ”

It is sometimes said that road-pricing schemescan kill three birds with onegestion, improve air quality,co nsu mpt io n. P relimin aryhowever, that the net effect

stone: reduce con-and reduce energya na ly sis su ggests,on air quality and

energy consumption would be insignificant.Since the characteristics of congestion, air pollu-tion, and energy consumption vary, so must themeasures that are applied to deal with them.58

Since congestion pricing is aimed at changing

the time and not the volume of automobile use,the net value in reducing pollution and energyconsumption is likely to be negligible.59

GOVERNMENT= INDUSTRY RELATIONS

To achieve changes in the characteristics of th e a u to mo b i le t r a n sp o r ta t io n sy s te m, th eFederal Government has traditionally relied onregulations and performance standards, leavingto the industry the tasks of acquiring capital anddeveloping the technology to comply. Table 118lists the major regulatory measures that havebeen enacted for automobiles by the FederalGovernment in the past 15 years.

With the growing awareness of the problemsrelated to the automobile and with the increasedcost and technology required to deal with theseproblems, the Federal Government has becomemore directly involved in financing and con-ducting research and development of new tech-nologies to meet national goals. Although there

is general agreement that the new developmentof technology requires substantial capital andtechnical resources, there is strong disagreement

about whether the Federal Government shouldintervene in the free market either to stimulatetechnological innovation or to preserve or alter

the present structure of the market.An important factor in the relationship be-

tween the Federal Government and the automo-bile industry is the importance of the industry tothe national economy. The automobile indus-try’s role in the economy can be seen in figure 50and table 119, which depict the contribution of the industry to personal consumption, invest-ment, and the national income. Equally reveal-ing are the employment statistics for the auto-mobile industry and related services and busi-ness shown in table 120.

Given the scope of the automobile and auto-related industries, it is clear that policies affect-ing these industries will affect the national

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Table 118.—Legislation Affecting Automobile System Characteristics and Use

Safety 1963 . . . . . .

1968 . . . . . .

1972 . . . . . .

cost 1956 . . . . . .

1958 . . . . . .

1974 . . . . . .

Energy1974 . . . . . .

1975 . . . . . .

1976 . . . . . .

Environment 1963 . . . . . .

1965 . . . . . .

1972 . . . . . .

The Roberts Bill, Public Law 88-515. —Required that motor vehiclespurchased by the Federal Government meet safety standards.National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act and Amendments (1970, 1972, 7974), Public Law 89-563,–Established safety stand-ards, with mandatory inspections for motor vehicles i n interstatecommerce.Motor Vehicle /formation and Cost Savings Act and Amendments

(1974, 1975), Public Law 92-513.–Required manufacturers todisclose information indicating compliance with the standards setfor bumpers and odometers. Required DOT to publish consumer in-formation on new cars (not yet implemented).

Automobile Dealer Suits Against Manufacturers, Public Law 84-1026. —Enabled franchise automobile dealers to bring suitagainst manufacturers for failure to comply with terms of fran-chises.Automobile Information Disclosure Act and Amendment (1972),Public Law 85-506. —Required full disclosure of information in thedistribution of new automobiles.Magnuson-Moss Warranty —Federal Trade Commission /improvement Act, Public Law 93-637. — Provided disclosurestandards for consumer product warranties i n regard to used motorvehicles.

Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act, Public Law 93-319. —Authorized a fuel-economy study to be undertaken by theDepartment of Transportation (120-day study) to establish a fuel-economy improvement standard.Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Public Law 94-163. —Established standards for motor vehicle fuel economywith a goal of 27.5 mpg for 1985.Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Development, and Demonstration Act, Public Law 94-413.—Authorized a Federalprogram of research and development for electric vehicletechnologies and demonstrate ion of their feasibility.

Clean Air Act and Amendments (1965, 1966, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1973,1977), Public Law 88-206. —Encouraged greater efforts to developdevices and fuels that will reduce air pollution from motor vehicles.Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act, Public Law 89-272. —Required standards for automotive emissions control onnew motor vehicles.Noise Control Act, Public Law 92-574. —Established noiseregulations for motor carriers engaged in interstate commerce.

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Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings Ž 275

Figure 50.—Scope of U.S. Automotive Industry

Estimated employment—June 1976(percent of total nonagricultural payrolls—average for 1972 to 1976)

-

Manufacturing

1,228,000 (1 .5°0) -—l-----’:~::~:~~~v~d:~g-d

Automobile I I1

IRecall auto and I Gasoline I I Automotiveand parts : accessory dealers I service stations ~ I repairmanufacturers I 1,252,000 695,000 I services306,000 I

(1 .6°/ 0) , ( 0 . 9 % )I 1 459,000

(1 .0%) I I I (0.6°/0)I

Auto parts Automobilemanufactured and partsby other wholesalersIndustries 430,000422,000 (0.500)(0.500)

Real personal consumption expenditures—2nd quarter, 1976, in billions of 1972 dollars

(Average percent of constant dollarTotal auto related expenditures on all personal consumption

104.1 (130/0) items 1973-76)

+Auto-related services (est) 23.5 (2.9°/0)

— Gas and oil 23.4 (2.9°/0)

— Other motor vehicles and parts13.1 (1.6°/0)

I

-Total automotive18.2 (15.80/o) - - l

Real business fixed investment expenditures2nd quarter, 1976, in billions of 1972 dollars

(Average percent of constant dollarexpenditures on all business plantand equipment items)

Autos Trucks and8.5 buses Total 114.9(7.40/0) 9.7 (8.40/o)

SOURCE Unpublished report of the A J Kearney, Inc Management Consultants, for the U S Environmental ProtectionAgency April 1977 pp II-5 and II-6

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Table 119.—Contribution of the Motor Vehicle and Equipment Industry to NationalIncome in 1973 and 1975a(billions of 1975 dollars)

1973 1975

All industries (excluding government)Domestic income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $898 $1,025Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 633 729Corporate profitsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 92

All manufacturing

Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Corporate profitsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motor vehicles and equipment manufacturingIncome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

Employee compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

Corporate profitsb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of all industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Percent of manufacturing industries . . . . .

284 310230 251

44 46

Agency, April 1977 pp lL5andlL6

Table 120.—Automobile industry Employment,1976

Industrial sector Employment

Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing 948,000Auto and parts retail dealers . . . . . . . . . 1,116,000Auto and parts wholesale dealers . . . . 380,000Service and garages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447,000Gasoline service stations . . . . . . . . . . . 627,000Construction of highways and streets. 299,000Petroleum industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397,000

State and local highway departments . 582,000Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,796,000

SOURCE Transportation Assoclatlon of America, Transportation Facts and Trends

economy significantly. Projections of the futureof the automobile industry, therefore, will havean important bearing on the kinds of policiesthat the Federal Government might consider.

Trends and Implications

The Base Case contains the following assump-tions and projections about automobile technol-ogy and the industry’s response to presentpolicies:

q It is expected that the basic technology willbe available to meet Government standards

q

q

q

q

on fuel economy, emissions, and safety by1985.

Incorporating this technology will increasethe average price of a new car by about$5oO (in 1975 dollars).

In order to achieve fuel-economy stand-ards, manufacturers will reduce the sizeand weight of automobiles, perhaps by an

average 800 to 1,000 pounds between 1977and 1981. Further size and weight reduc-t io n s a re e x p e c te d d u r in g th e p e r io d1981 -2000.60

The major impact of Government policiesand changes in demand will become evi-dent by 1985. After that, changes will occurmore slowly but in the same direction.

The impact of increased auto prices on saleswill be more than offset by general eco-nomic trends and by reductions in the realcost of automobile ownership and opera-tion. As a result, new car sales are expectedto increase from 10 million in 1976 to 13million in 1985 and 16.4 million by 2000.

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Table 123.—Net income and Net Income as a Percent of Sales in the U.S. Automobile Industry, 1969-76

Net Income ($ millions) Net income as percent of sales

1969 . . . . . .1970 . . . . . .1971 . . . . . .1972 ., . . . .1973 . . . . . .

1974 . . . . . .1975 . . . . . .1976 . . . . . .

$1,710.7609.1

1,935.72,162.82,398.0

950.01,253.02,908.0

Ford$546.5

515.7657.0870.0906.5

360.9322.7993.0

Chrysler$ 99.0

(7.6)83.7

220.5225.4

(52.1)(259.5)

15.5

Ford3.83.44.14.44.0

1.61.43.4

Chrysler Total

Pholo Credl! Genera/ Mofors Coro

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of imports, or the movement of foreign firmsinto the United States might act to offset someor all of this decline in employment.

The rate of profit in the automobile manufac-turing industry varies considerably from year toyear, depending on the company and the busi-ness cycle. Table 123 shows net income and netincome as a percent of sales for the four majordomestic manufacturers for the years 1969 to1976. Although record gains in net income wereexperienced in 1976, net income as a percentageof sales was lower than i t had been in severalyears. On the whole, however, the industry’sreturn on equity and profit margins were com-parable to those in other manufacturing in-dustries. General Motor’s profits were signifi-cantly higher than those of the other manufac-turers, evidence of the relationship betweenprofits and sales volume.

The significant increases in the rate of growthin sales improves the outlook for industry prof-i tabi li ty . Because i t is a ssumed tha t the in -creased costs of Government standards will bepassed on to the consumer in the Form of higherprices, no reduction in profit levels is expected.The effect of Government standards and regula-tions on product mixes could, however, reduceindustry profits.

Although precise data re la ting the ra te of profit to car class and size are unavailable, allindications suggest that the smaller the car, thesmaller the profit. A study, conducted in 1976for the Department of Transporta tion, esti-mated that the variable profit margin—therevenue per car less variable costs—for twodomestic manufacturers was 19 to 23 percent forcompacts and subcompacts, 27 to 32 percent for

P h o t o Crpdi f Gene ,d Motor< CorLI

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medium-sized cars, and 38 to 40 percent forlarge cars.61

The profit rate is highly sensitive to changesin volume of sales. Meeting Government stand-ards and changing the mix of production will in-crease fixed costs, which are generally allocatedto new car prices on the basis of anticipatedvolume of sales. Volume growth above expecta-tions, therefore, will increase profits; whereas

growth below expectations will cause a signifi-cant decline.

Industry Structure

The domestic auto-manufacturin g i n d u s t ryconsis ts o f four major p roducers : GeneralMotors, Ford, Chrysler, and American Motors.General Motors accounts for over 50 percent of domestic sales; GM and Ford account for over80 percent. The market shares of manufacturersand their nameplates for the years 1947, 1957,and 1976 are shown in table 124.

Capita l investments to meet Governmentstandards and to accommodate changes in de-mand will increase the sales volume necessaryfor each firm to realize a profit. If a firm fails tomake the required profit, it would have to relyon external sources of capital. While Ford andGeneral Motors are conservatively financed and

Table 124.—Market Shares of U.S. Passenger Car Manufacturers in Selected Years(percent)

1947 1957 1967 1976

Chevrolet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.58 24.90 25.93 23.69Pontiac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.27 5.61 11.57 9.24Oldsmobile . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.39 6.38 7.47 11.36Buick. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.53 6.66 7.57 9.63Cadillac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.63 2.50 2.88 3.68

Total, GM . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.44 46.05 55.60 57.60

Plymouth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.86 10.73 8.23 7.75Dodge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.52 4.78 6.72 6.45DeSoto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.29 1.92 — —Chrysler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.04 1.94 3.25 1.50Imperial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.62 0.21 —

Total, Chrysler. . . . . . . . . 21.71 19.99 18.41 15.70

Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.93 24.89 18.60 17.59Edsel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.89 — —Mercury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.51 4.50 3.84 5.12Lincoln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.82 0.61 0.46 0.76Continental . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 0.01 — 0.71

Total, Ford . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.26 30.90 22.90 24.18

Total, Big Three . . . . . .

Hudson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Nash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rambler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Total, American Motors .

Crosley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Kaiser- Frazer . . . . . . . . . . . .Packard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Studebaker. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Willys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

83.41 96.94 96.91 97.48

2.82 0.02 — —

3.19 0.06 — — — 1.78 3.09 2.52

1.86 3.09 2.52

0.54 — — .

4.06 — — —1.57 0.09 — —3.48 1.11 — —

0.93 — — —

SOURCE Ward s Commumcatlons Inc Ward s 1977 Aulornoflve Yearbook pp 116-117

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would have many options open to them, Ameri-can Motors and Chrysler, having had poorearnings records in recent years, would prob-ably find it difficult to raise funds in the market.

The capital and cost requirements associatedwith meeting standards will probably deprivethe smaller firms of the flexibility needed to in-vest in both regulation-induced activities and

those related to product improvement and pro-ductivity. As figure 51 shows, Chrysler is themost highly leveraged of the four companies. 62

Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings 281

This disadvantage, together with the ability of larger firms to withstand cyclical demand condi-t ions 63 and American Motors reliance on out-side firms to provide improved engines andequipment to meet Government standards, willfurther decrease the competit iveness of thesmaller firms.

Policy Options

In view of the relationship between the auto-mobile industry and the national economy, theFederal Government might choose to adoptpolicies designed to have a direct effect on thestructure or economic well-being of the indus-try. The following discussion suggests potentialchanges in Federal Government policy with re-spec t to regu la t ion , cap i ta l a l loca t ion , andresearch and development that merit furtherstudy.

Regulation

The Federal Government’s policy of settingregulations and performance standards to dealwith automobile-related problems has met with

Figure 51 .— Long-Term Debt as a Percent of Equity

30

20

10

Chrysler

AmericanMotors

Ford

GeneralMotors

1970 1971

SOURCE .Sydec/EEAp III-182

II .( y { ( ) . ; { . I 1

972 1973 1974 1975

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strong criticism and strong resistance by the in-dustry. As late as July 1977, for example, theautomobile manufacturers were preparing toturn out 1978 model cars while Congress wasamending the emission standards that applied tothat model year. Had Congress failed to pass theClean Air Act Amendments in time, the 1978cars would have been in violation of the law.The controversy over automobile regulatorypolicy is not surprising, considering the eco-nomic stakes and the fact that regulations mustbe set and implemented in the face of imperfectknowledge about the causal relationship be-twe e n a u to mo b i le imp ro v e me n ts a n d sa fe rtravel, cleaner air, and reduced fuel consump-tion. b4

Supporters of the present regulatory systemcan be found among environmentalist groups,safety advocates, and automobile owners. Reg-ulatory advocates argue that standards are nec-essary to force technological change within the

industry. They prefer standards to market in-centives as a means of achieving national goals,because standards, unlike taxes, address theproblem directly and provide the public withsymbolic assurance that some action is beingtaken. bs

Those who oppose the regulatory system onprinciple argue that intervention of the Govern-ment in industrial decisionmaking has led to anincreasing maze of regulations which are incon-sistent and generally unresponsive to changes intechnology or consumer attitudes and prefer-

ences. In their view, the regulatory system hassheltered the industry against competitive pres-sures, led to higher prices, and has served thepublic poorly. They strongly advocate the useof market incentives, which they claim are moreeffective and economically efficient.

The automobile industry does not necessarilyoppose standards on principle , but on thegrounds that the technology for meeting them isu n a v a i l a b le a n d th e c o s t s c a n n o t b e fu l lyrecovered even by increasing the price to theconsumer. Testifying before the Automobile In-dustry Task Force, Lee Iacocca, former Presi-dent of the Ford Motor Company, stated that,

“ltlhn B. HC}IWC)LK1 a n d (,ther~, RiJ,yulatIHg t)Ic Aut[~m(Ihi/[1[lratt I’aper, 1<t>p,~rt ‘77-007 ( ~(~~t{~n: NIIT Energy Labc>ratory, ]uly1Q77 ), p Iv .

“ Iblci. p 4 lb

between 1975 and 1980, $1.8 billion would haveto be spent by the industry to meet Governmentstandards for vehicle safety, damageability, andpollution control. bb

Capital Allocation

The costs of research and development of automobile technology to meet Federal environ-

mental, safety, and energy standards have pro-moted a number of suggestions for Governmentprograms to help companies that experiencelong-term difficulties raising capital. Manufac-turers have traditionally raised capital throughthe sale of commercial paper in the marketplace,in competition for funds with bank certificatedeposits and U.S. Treasury bills. In periods of restrictive monetar y policy, the cost of raisingfunds in this way increases dramatically and ag-gravates the industry’s problem of acquiringcapital .67

Despite the problems of raising capital, theautomobile industry has continually opposedproposa ls fo r the nonmarke t a l loca t ion o f funds. Testifying before Congress, the chief economist of the Ford Motor Company arguedthat the only way to improve the industry’scapital position is fo r the Government toeliminate unnecessary and costly regulationsand standards and to improve general economicconditions. “I see no way of maintaining aviable privately owned and operated automo-bile industry in the country if, (in addition to theGovernment’s present involvement), the Gov-

ernment finances our capital expenditures. ”

6g

Arepresentative of American Motors was some-what less emphatic in his opposition. Althoughopposed to the Federal allocation of capital,American Motors urged that the Governmentfacilitate conventional borrowing by providingloan guarantees. b9

The United Auto Workers (UAW), on theother hand, favor credit allocation as a means of p ro v id in g c a p i t a l fo r th e d e v e lo p me n t o f energy-rela ted technology. Speaking to theAutomobi le Indust ry Task Force , Leonard

“bU. S. Congress, House, Committee on Banking, Currency, andHousing, The Automobile industry and Its impact Llpon the Na -

t i o n !ScononIy, hearings before the Automobile Industry TaskForce, 94th Cong., 2d sess., Vol. 1, June 1975, p. 286.

‘-t bici.

O* Ibid, p , 105.

““tbld, P. IJQ,

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Ch.. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policies, and Findings 285

I

#‘ //

r I 1“

/

{ z

/

/

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Figure 53.—Forecasts for Components of Ownership and Operation Costs of aStandard-Size Auto

“Standard size”

2

1

6

5

4

3

2

1

54

3

2

1

State and Federal taxes - - - - - d

t 1 1 1 i I 1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

-

/

Dep rec i a t i on

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

tMaintenance, accessories, parts & tires

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

4 *

3 - - - -

2

1Gas & oil (excluding taxes)

I I 1 11

1.

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

.5

2 1- -

1Garage, parking & tolls

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

3 .

2 - \ - - - -

. Insurance1I 1 1 1 1 I *

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000

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offset by rate increases in cities seeking todiscourage auto commuting. Toll facilities willhandle a declining proportion of VMT for simi-lar reasons. Because fewer toll roads are beingbuilt, they represent a declining proportion of total highway mileage.

Base Case projections of future gas and oilcosts, excluding taxes, are based primarily on

fleet miles per gallon, vehicle miles of travel,and projected gasoline prices. Oil costs are projected to change in proportion to gasoline costs.The modest decline in real cost predicted forstandard cars from 1976 to 1985 is a continua-tion of long-term trends. Weight reduction andimproved fuel efficiency are expected to con-tribute to declining cost for the standard-size carthrough 1985.

Depreciation costs are projected to rise about9 percent in real terms from 1976 to 1985. Basedon new car price trends, a decline of about 2 per-

cent per year, or about 18 percent total over the9-year period, might be expected for a fixedauto design. 76

The cost of maintenance, accessories, parts,and tires is projected to increase by about 16percent in real terms between 1976 and 1985.

This increase is slightly above the historical an-nual rate of increase for the four-door, stand-ard-size car assumed in the FHWA studies, andis greatly above the Consumer Price Indextrend, which shows a 10-percent decrease for theauto repair and maintenance cost index over thelast 15 years. This upward projection allows forincreased maintenance costs that might accom-pany new safety and emission control equip-

ment.Table 126 shows forecasts of total ownership

and operating costs per mile for each class of new automobile and for the average new carfleet. The overall new car fleet average cost isexpected to drop slightly from 15.3 cents to 14.9cents per mile in 1975 dollars. Because of theprojected shift to smaller size cars, this slightdecrease in cost is expected to occur despite theprice rise of 2 to 6 percent projected for eachclass.

Because the changing mix of new car sales for

1985 to 2000 cannot be predicted with accuracy,the same method cannot be used to forecastaverage new car costs per mile for the long term.Generally speaking, costs per mile for the threesize classes of cars are expected to increase be-tween 4 an d 5 percent between 1985 and 2000.Because of this trend and because the shift tosmaller classes will have been largely accom-plished, the new car fleet average cost per mile isexpected to increase slightly after 1985, reachingapproximately the 1976 level of 15.3 cents (in1975 dollars) by 2000. Expressed as a proportionof real total personal disposable income, autoownership and operating costs are projected todecline because real income is forecast to growat a rate substantially higher than VMT.

Table 126.— Estimated Average New Car Costs of Ownership and Operation Based onProjected Shifts in Size Classes

.1976 1985

Contribution ContributionProportion cost to average Proportion cost to average

of fleet x per= fleet of fleet x per = fleetSize class in class mile cost/mile in class mile cost/miIe. . .

S u b c o m p a c t . . 0.22 11 .9¢ 2.6¢ 0.30 - 12.6¢ 3.8¢Compact. . . . . . . . . . . . 0.19 13.8 2.6 0.30 14.3 4.3

Intermediate . . 0.2915.4 4,5

0.1615.8

2.5Standard. . . . 0.20 17.0 3.4 0.07 17.3 1.2Small Luxury . . . . . . . . 0.05 18.5 0.9 0.09 18,8 1.7

Large Luxury . . . . . . . . . . . 0.06 20.1 1.2 0.07 20.2 1.4

Totals . . ... ... ...-—.———.

1.00 15.3¢ 1.00 14.911.

SOURCE The new car fleet mix forecast IS based on the EEA auto stock model Ownership and operating cost forecasts by Sydec are based on methods described inSydec EEA pp lll-150 to Ill 162

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Ch. 9—Cost and Capital Issues, Policles, and Findlngs q28 9

It is also argued that the present system is in-efficient and fails to provide complete coverage.The la te Senator Phill ip A. Hart sta ted that

. . . of $5.1 billion of personal and family lossessuffered by one-half million serious injury andfatality victims of automobile accidents in 1967,the auto insurance fault system provided only$ 8 1 3 million. . . .“ Averaging all degrees of economic loss, the ratio of recovery to lossranges from 21 to 36 percent.

The present system has also been criticized forprolonged delays in payment of claims when theresponsibility for payment must be determinedby trial. In some States, there have been delaysof 3 years and longer. Although relatively fewsuits for claims actually go to trial, settlementsare often not negotiated until the trial date ap-proaches.

Thus, consumers have a minimum of three

basic complaints about automobile insurance:high cost, perceived inequities in the process of setting rates and making insurance available,and excessive time required to collect claims. Animportant issue is the role that the States andFederal Government should play in shaping anautomobile insurance system that is responsiveto these concerns.

Until 1970, the prevailing system in theUnited States was one that required drivers, judged to be at fault, to pay reparations to acci-dent victims. Because most drivers carried lia-

bility insurance, these payments were typicallymade by insurance companies on behalf of negligent (accident-causing) drivers. Unlessfault could be determined through negotiationof the parties and a monetary settlement agreedupon, the matter was decided in a court of law,with the plaintiff having the right to a trial by jury. If successful in obtaining a judgment, theplaintiff received reparations to the extent thatthe defendent’s assets, including any insurancecoverage, sufficed to pay the judgment. Often,the substantial delay between the time of the ac-cident and the time of judgment meant that the

plaintiff himself had to shoulder the expenses of medical care, loss of work, and substitute meansof transportation. The negligent driver, underthis system, received no financial assistance,unless he had purchased first-party insurancecoverage.

In 1970, Massachusetts became the first Stateto insti tute a “no-fault” reparation schemewhereby each driver in an accident is paid im-mediately, by his own insurance company, formedical expenses incurred up to $2,000. Since1970, 23 other States have instituted some typeof no-fault insurance plan. Insurance companiescannot independently adopt a no-fault insur-ance scheme since, under present regulations,they must follow the law of the State in whichthey operate.

Theoretically , a pure no-fault plan wouldavoid the need to go to court to determine liabil-ity and the amount of reparation to be made bythe negligent driver. The question of fault wouldbe irrelevant, and compensation for economicloss would be made to all injured parties on anestablished payment schedule. A pure no-faultsystem would also prohibit any suit in tort fordamage recovery , making acc iden t v ic t ims

d e p e n d e n t o n es ta blis hed s ch ed u les forrecovery, However, no State has adopted a pureno-fault system. All 23 States have establishedthresholds such that, if a person suffers eco-nomic loss above a certain amount, he can suefor further recovery in the courts. Therefore,many drivers in no-fault States continue tocarry liability insurance to guard against thepossibil i ty of a substantia l court judgmentagainst them.

The Federal Government could approach theproblem of automobile insurance in three ways:

continue to let the States regulate all automobileinsurance, establish national insurance stand-ards, or expand existing Federal social programsto deal with the problems faced by drivers in-volved in automobile accidents.

If the Federal Government were to establish anational plan to deal with the costs of auto-mobile accidents, it might either set standardsfor States to meet or exceed, or it might imposespecific requirements. A precedent for Federalinvolvement exists with the uniform safetystandards established for the States.

The idea of setting Federal insurance stand-ards is not new. Legislation to that effect was in-troduced in the 92d, 93d r 94th, and 95th Con-gresses. Two identical bills were introduced inApril 1977, under which basic standards would

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be established for no-fault benefit plans pro-viding for rehabilitation of, and compensationfor, motor vehicle accident victims. (S. 1381and H.R. 66ol: The Standards for No-FaultMotor Vehicle Benefit Act. ) These bills allowedeach State to establish its own no-fault plan, aslong as it met or exceeded Federal standards.The proposed standard benefits included:

Emergency treatment and care and medicaland rehabilitation expenses up to $100,000(in some cases $250,000), with optionalcoverage of up to $1 million,

Wage losses up to $12,000,

Replacement services for up to 1 year toallow accident victims to hire someone toperform tasks that they could no longerperform as a result of their injury, and

Funeral and death benefits of $1,000.

The power of insurance companies to refuse

to renew or to cancel policies would be strictlylimited under these bills. Access to the courtswould be provided only in cases of death, seri-ous disfigurement, or other serious or perma-nent injury. States would be required to developa plan for making insurance available to every-one a t reasonable rates.

Since no-fault provisions for vehicle damagewere not included in the proposed legislation,such claims would be dealt with in the tradi-t ional manner. Sta tes tha t have t r ied to in -corporate compensation for vehicle damage in

their no-fault plans have experienced seriousproblems. Massachusetts, for example, repealedthe vehicle damage provisions of its no-faultplan in 1974. Michigan, while including suchcoverage, provides for a $100 deduction similarto the so-called “collision” insurance plans.

If federally imposed no-fault standards wereadopted, accident victims w ould receive im-mediate financial assistance to pay for medicaltreatment, to make up for lost wages, and tosecure substitute services. The time required toestablish “fault“ would be eliminated, except incases of extreme hardship. All parties harmed inan accident would receive assistance— in mostcases, more than they would receive under ex-isting State programs.

Discrimination between policyholders as a

result of ratesetting processes, policy cancella-

t ions, and nonrenewal of polic ies would berecognized as specific problems to be dealt withat the State level. While the cost savings wouldnot be dramatic—since more people would bereceiving benefits—there would probably besome savings due to reduction in the number of court cases. To the extent that the number of cases would be reduced by the Federal plan,courts would be freer to deal with other matters

of concern.

One group that would stand to lose by the im-plementation of such a plan is the legal profes-sion. Claimants would need legal representationonly when necessary to prove fault. Historical-ly, lawyers fees for handling a plaintiff’s casehave accounted for one-quarter of a settlementreached prior to trial and one-third of the plain-tiff’s recovery if the matter was resolved in thecourts. Fees for defending a client are alsosignificant. By removing the issue of fault fromall but the most serious cases, and by having

compensation awarded on the basis of estab-lishe d sch ed u le s, th e re wo u ld b e l i t t le fo rlawyers to argue about in court.

Except in the most severe cases, injured par-ties would be unable to recover damages for“pain and suffering, ” If the no-fault plan were toinclude a deductible amount, each cla imantwould suffer an equal loss regardless of “fault. ”Without such a clause, minor claims would addsignificantly to insurance costs, as evidenced bypresent pricing practices for deductibles. Mostno-fault programs that have been proposed re-

quire compulsory insurance coverage, an issuethat is not necessarily tied to no-fault.

The cost impacts on consumers cannot bepredicted with confidence since potential reduc-tions of legal fees are offset by the prospect of having to compensate a greater number of acci-dent victims.

Automobile Repair

Institutions that record consumer complaintsidentify automobile repairs as the leading causeof consumer dissatisfaction. Consumers com-

plain that repair services are too costly, poorlyperformed, misguided, unnecessary, and some-times fraudulent. Even new car owners, withrecourse to warranty policies, complain of un-satisfactory repair services. The early break-down of parts—in some cases on brand-new ve-

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hicles—creates a considerable cost and incon-venience for the owner. In the coming years,consumer problems with automobile repairs arelikely to increase as cars become more compli-cated and as the number of trained mechanicsfails to meet increased demand.

Part of the cause of unsatisfactory repair serv-ice is that manufacturers make 90 percent of their profits on the sale of new cars, and only 10percent on the subsequent sale of parts. The

pressure on dealers is to sell. While manufac-turers have canceled dealer franchises becauseof poor sales performance, they have seldom, if ever, done so because a dealer has failed to serv-ice cars adequately. Warranty repair work isnot in the interest of e ither the automobilemanufacturers or the automobile dealer. Manu-facturers, in fact, have discouraged dealers fromdoing warranty repair work by requiring exten-sive paperwork and, at times, by refusing to re-imburse all of their claims fully.

Photo C red / f U S D.eoartmenf of Transpo r fa f / on

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With the exception of the Magnuson-MossWarranty-Federal Trade Commission Improve-ment Act (also known as the Consumer ProductWarranty and Federal Trade Commission Im-provement Act) that requires warranties to bestated clearly and that prohibits manufacturersfrom disclaiming or modifying implied warran-ties of the common law, the Federal Govern-ment has not intervened in the area of auto-mobile repair . Rather, the responsibili ty forconsumer protection has rested with the States.Three basic types of automobile repair lawshave been developed: disclosure laws (truth-in-auto-repair laws), facility-licensing laws, andmechanics-licensing laws.

Disc losure laws typ ica l ly requ ire tha t acustomer be given a written estimate of therepair costs, that a customer authorize repairs inwriting before they are begun, that the customerbe provided with a written invoice detailing theparts used and labor performed, and that the

customer be allowed to inspect the parts.

Facil i ty-l icensing laws require auto repairfacilities to obtain licenses for the purpose of do-

ing business. Often, such facilities must pay afee and post a bond. In the event of fraud or de-ceptive practices, the license can be suspend edor revoked.

Mechanics-licensing laws require that repairwork be either performed or supervised by acertified, licensed mechanic. Licensing typicallyrequires that the applicant pass a competency

examination.To date, 15 States and 3 local governments

have legislated one or more of these forms of regulation of automobile repair services. Table128 shows the States that currently have auto-mobile repair laws, according to the type of legislation in effect.

It is, perhaps, too early to evaluate the effec-tiveness of State actions to improve automobilerepair services. If these policies are successful,the Federal Government might continue its pres-ent passive policy with respect to automobile

repair. If the States are unsuccessful, the FederalGovernment might choose to take a more activerole by passing national legislation designed toregulate or control the quality of repair service.

Table 128.—State Regulation of Automobile Repair

Facility MechanicsDisclosure licensing licensing

Iawsa Iawsb lawsc

California. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x xConnecticut. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Florida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xHawaii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x xMaryland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xMichigan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x xMontana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xNevada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xNew Hampshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xNew Jersey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xNew York . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x xOhio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xRhode Island . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xUtah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xWisconsin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xDistrict of Columbia. . . . . . . . . . . x x xMontgomery County, Md. . . . . . . x x

Prince Georges County, Md. . . . . x xDallas, Tex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

aDISCIOSUre [aws typically require that a customer be given a written estimate of the repair costs, that he authorize rePalrS In

wntlng before they are begun, that he be provided with a written Invoice deta[ IIng the parts used and labor performed, and thathe be allowed to Inspect parts.bFacl]lty I[cens[ng laws require auto repair facllltles to obtain Ilcenses for the PurPose of doln9 businesscMechan ICS I Icen SI ng laws req u Ire that fepal r work be elt her performed or supervl sed by a cert I fled, I Icen sed mechanicSOURCE SRI, pp F27 to F29

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.

Ch, 9—Cost and Capfta/ Issues, Po/lcles, and Flndlngs q 29 3

. .

Automobile Durability

Automobile durability has a significant effecton consumer costs and is directly related to de-preciation, which constitutes about one-quarterof the average cost per mile of operating anautomobile. Durability of individual compo-nents is, moreover, a major element in repaira n d m a i nt en a nce c os ts , w h i ch a cco u n t fo ra n o th e r 20 percent of the average cost permile . 77

The present economic system provides essen-tially no incentives for increasing automobiledurability. C o n s u m e r s h a v e n o c h a n n e l sthrough which to express a preference for more

durable vehicles, nor do they have the know-how to assess the durability of the cars that theybuy. The magnitude of the private investmentrequ ired to own and opera te an au tomobi le

Photo Credlf U S Deparfrnent of Transpoftaflon

gives rise to the question of whether the FederalGovernment should intervene in the market in

an effort to increase the durability of the privateautomobile.

The average automobile engine produced inthe United States lasts 100,000 miles beforeneeding overhaul, and some engines have a lifeof 150,000 miles or more. At the point whenov erh au l is required, many v eh icles a r escr ap ped . O t h e r s ar e o u t fi t te d w i t h a n e wengine and can be driven for an additionalperiod. Other major components of the drive-train, body, and suspension system, might lastlonger than the engine.

The lifetime of accessories and componentssuch as radiators, water pumps, distributors,alternators, and carburetors is often less thanhalf that of the major power train parts. Op-tional accessories such as power steering, powerbrakes, and air-conditioning have similarly

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shorter life spans, as do seats, floor mats, doorpanels, and other appearance items. Degrada-tion of such parts is a major factor leading to

junking of the vehicle before the major com-ponents are worn out, The durability of all of these items could be greatly enhanced at rela-tively modest cost.

Corrosion of body parts caused by ice-dis-

solving chemicals also shortens the life of theau tomobi le . Corrosion cou ld be con tro l ledrather inexpensively by using more galvanizedsheet steel in the automobile body or by im-proved undercoating,

Although overall durability varies from car tocar and from manufacturer to manufacturer, itis generally agreed that the smaller the car, theshorter its life span. Most likely, smaller carsare less durable then larger ones because theyare operated at a greater proportion of theiravailable power or capacity.

Durability is also a function of the manner inwhich a car is operated and maintained. Whileperiodic motor vehicle inspections—first in-stituted in Pennsylvania in 1929—were designedto remove unsafe vehicles from the road, theyhad a secondary effect of promoting automobilemaintenance and repairs, thereby increasing thelife of the vehicle. The National Highway Traf-fic Safety Administration now requires everyState to implement such a safety inspection pro-gram, although only 31 States and the Districtof Columbia have actually done so.

If the Federal Government were to seek tocontrol automobile ownership costs, it mightconsider policies to improve durability. Amongthese are:

Establish uniform warranties (or guaran-teed life standards for all major automotivecomponents, and enforce compliance,

Require life testing and verification of allnew cars as is now done in the case of emis-sions,

Expand and fully implement a periodicmaintenance and vehicle inspection pro-gram to cover sa fe ty , emiss ions , fue leconomy, noise, and durability,

Provide incentives such as rebates, taxes,or development subsidies individually, orin concert, to encourage durability,

Establish an experimental durable car pro-

gram analogous to the Research SafetyVehicle Program, and

Provide the public, or require that the pub-lic be provided with, detailed informationabout the longevity , maintenance, andre p a i r r e q u i re me n ts o f a l l ma k e s a n dmod els of cars. 78

““The Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act ( 1972)requires that such information be provided, but this law has notyet been implemented by NHTSA.

F’hofo Credits Top /e//, General Electric Photo for u .S DeParfrnerIt of Energy top r/ghf, U S Departrnerrf of Errergy,bottom /ef[ U S Department of Transportation, and bottom rlghf, Genera/ Motors Corporat(orr

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Chapter 10

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Chapter 10.-TECHNOLOGY

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .297Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .298Historical and Current Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

Materials, Design, and ManufacturingProcesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302

Propulsion Systems. . .....................304Drivetrain. . . . . . ..........................304Regulation . . . . . . ....................,.,..305

Automotive Technology to 1985. .. ............310Downsizing and Materials Substitution. .. ....310Otto Cycle Engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317Diesel Engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .322Drivetrain. . . . . . . . . .......................325Accessories and Accessory Drives . .........327Electronics . . . . . .........................327Aerodynamic Drag and Friction . ............328Safety Technology. . ......................329Recyc l ing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .332

AutomobileTechnology Beyond 1985..........333Propulsion Systems. . . . ................,..333Drivetrain and Tires . ......................340

Vehicle Design and Manufacture . . . . . . . . . . . .340Electric and Hybrid Vehicles. . ..............343Alternate Fuels . . . . . . . ...,*... . . . . . . . . q . . . . . 352

Oi lSh a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 2TarSands. . . . . . . .........................355Coal Liquids . . . . .........................356Alcohol Fuel and Alcohol-Gasoline Blends ,..359Hydrogen . . . . . . ..........................362

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

137.138.

139.140.141.

142.143

144

145146147.

148.

149.

150.

151.

Page

Materials Used in a Chevrolet impala.......3l4Hypothetical Vehicle Upper and LowerBody Weight Reductions . ...............316Drivetrain Losses. . ................,....325Hydrokinetic Transmission Improvements. . 326Current and Potential TransmissionEfficiencies . . . . . . . . ....................326Frontal Area for Typical PassengerCars. . . . 329Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards,Near-Term lmprovements UnderConsideration for Passenger Vehicles .. ...330Occupant Crash Protection EffectivenessEst imates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .332Technical Features for Highway Safety, ....332Stirling and Baseline Engine Data .........337Desirable Minimum Characteristics—Electric Work Vehicle . ..................346Technical Goals of U.S. Postal ServiceElectric Delivery Vehicle . ................346Typical Electric Vehicle ComponentDesign Alternatives.. . ..................347

Hybrid Vehicle SubsystemTypical DesignAlternatives. . . . . . . . . . ..................349Comparison of Costs for Electric andConventional Cars. . ....................352

LISTOF FIGURESFiaure No. Page

54. illustrative Automobile Sizes . .............30055.

56.

129.130.

131.

132.

133.

134.135.

136.

Vehicle Characteristics. . ................302U.S. Sales of Captive lmports . ............302

Automobile Materials Used in a 1974Plymouth Valiant . ......................302Summary of California and FederalPassenger Vehicle Exhaust EmissionStandards, 1970to1982and Later ... ... ...3O6Chronology of Federal Motor VehicleSafety Standards and Regulations. . .......308Vehicle Weight, 1976 and 1981............313General Motors Weight-ReductionTechnology . . . . . . ......................313General Motors Corporation Alternativeill, Model Year 1985 Engine ProductionSummary . . . . . . . . ......................314

57,

56

63

646566

. 67

Factory installation of Selected EquipmentFrom 1956 to 1976 . ......................301Historical Source of Octane Quality inCommercial Gasolines . ..................305Time-Phased lntroduction of GMCWeight-ReductionTechnology. . ...........315

U.S. Auto Industry New Plant and EquipmentExpend i tu res . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317Typical Emission Control System . .........318Accessory Horsepower. . .................327Effect of Speed on Power Requirements. ....328Schematic of Air-Cushioned RestraintSystem . . . . . . . . . ........................331Characteristics of Automotive PropulsionSystems . . . . . . . . . .......................334Principle of the Stirling Engine . . . . . . . . . . ...335Stirling Engine With Swa sh Plate. ..........335Electric Vehicle Configurations . ...........348Hybrid Vehicle Power Systems . ...........350

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SUMMARY

During this century, automobile manufactur-ing has evolved from a small group of strugglingentrepreneurs into a massive industry and Gov-ernment complex. The evolution of the industryhas been largely determined by the capability of automobile manufacturers to mass produce ve-hicles to satisfy public demand at an affordableprice. While there has been intense competitionamong manufacturers, the technology that hasdeveloped is remarkably uniform in terms of ve-

hicle size, performance: and component charac-teristics. Until recently, the factors that influ-enced general vehicle characteristics and thesuccess of particular models were styling, per-formance, comfort, convenience, reliability,and cost. As this formula was mastered by auto-mobile manufacturers, the climate of the indus-try became that of an established and maturetechnology.

Within the past decade, however, the estab-lished pattern may been upset. Through a com-bination of public concern, Government action,

and the force of circumstances, automobile tech-nology has had to take new directions. The in-dustry has had to be more mindful of environ-mental impacts, fuel economy, and safety. Thishas introduced new design requirements, newproduction techniques, new manufacturer re-sponsibilities, and new costs. The characteristicsof the automobile have begun to undergo atransformation in terms of both the technologyemployed and the rate at which changes are in-troduced. Some of these changes will be seen inthe near term, by 1985. Others will take muchlonger to emerge and may not be on the market

until sometime around 2000.The technological aspects of the automobile

transportation system that are likely to changein the near term are:

Ž Downsizing programs now underway will

reduce the average size and weight of thevehicle fleet. Wasted space resulting fromstyling and image features will be greatlyreduced.

Substitution of lightweight m aterials suchas aluminum, plastics, and high-strengthlow-alloy steels will reduce vehicle weightfurther.

• Changes in vehicle layout, such as front-

wheel drive, will allow further size andweight reduction.

Add itional increases in fuel economy willbe achieved by improvements in transmis-sions and drive trains and by reduced powerrequirements for accessories.

q Several new engines or refinements of ex-isting engines have been introduced recent-ly or probably will be on the market in thenear future:

—diesels (several offered now),

—stratified charge (offered now by Hon-da),

—Ford PROCO type (s ing le -chamber)stratified charge,

—valve selectors (ready now, but not onthe market), and

—turbocharging (offered now by GM andFord).

q Electronic fuel control and ignition systemswill come into widespread use and will helpto maintain efficient engine performanceand to reduce the need for tuneups.

The introd uction of these technological im-provements should permit the 1985 auto-mobile fuel-economy goals to be met, andpossibly exceeded.

2 9 7

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Emission goals, as currently legislated, canbe met using existing technology and antici-pated refinements without serious penaltyin fuel economy.

Vehicle safety will be enhanced by the addi-tion of passive restraints in the early 1980’s.

On the other hand, small cars increase thepotential for serious injury, unless crash-

worthiness is improved. Small cars can bedesigned to match the crashworthiness of present full-size cars at a nominal weightand cost penalty.

Basic design and manufacturing processeswill not change substantially, except wherethe use of new materials requires new proc-esses .

Advanced vehicle and propulsion technol-ogies such as Stirling and turbine engines,electric vehicles, and alternative fuels willnot significantly penetrate the marketplace

by 1985.

Other charac te r is t ic s , such as comfor t ,

programs on automobiles and fuels now beingconducted by Government and industry. Theoutcomes of these programs are expected tohave an important influence on the directionthat automotive technology will take in theperiod 1985-2000. These research and develop-ment activities include:

the gas turbine development program;

development of the Stirling engine, and itsderivatives;

R&D on electric and hybrid vehicles andidentification of prospective markets androles;

long-range development of highly efficientengines, such as the adiabatic turbocom-pound diesel;

R&D on mate r ia ls—inc lud ing ce ramiccomponents for engines, base metal cata-lysts, and energy-absorbin g composites;

development of a homogeneous, all-plastic

q

q

q

q

q

q

tire;

definition of the health effects of auto-mobile emissions—both those now regu-lated and those expected from new enginesand fuels; and

exploration of the processes and facilitiesneeded to provide new fuels—alcohol,

handling, and convenience options will bemuch like today. Durability, damageabil-ity, and maintenance and service require-ments will be essentia lly the same. Thevariety of products now offered by manu-facturers will remain, but the sales mix willshift toward smaller vehicles.

There are several research and developmentbroad-cuthydrogen.

petroleum fuels, synfuels, and

INTRODUCTION

The future of the automobile transporta tion system will be determined in part by the newtechnologies introduced in the next 25 years. Inorder to assess new technologies and their ef-

q

fects and impacts on the future characteristics of the automobile transportation system, it is nec-essary to make estimates of a number of factors: q

What are the technical or social drawbacksof these technologies?

When will they be commercialized and atwhat rate will they penetrate various mar-kets?

How much will they cost the consumer?

How much will the development processcost?

How do they compare with a lternativetechnologies?

Which new technologies are likely to be de- .veloped within the n ext 25 years?

What poten t ia l benef i ts do they o ffe r in .terms of improved mobility, reduction of e missio ns , e n e rg y c on se rv a t io n , o r im-

q

q

proved safety? In addressing these questions, this chapter

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Ch. 10— Technology q 29 9

first describes the present technology of auto-mo b i le s a n d th e a u to mo b i le in d u s t ry , a n dchanges through 1985 that are already in pros-pect because of Government regulations, indus-try commitments, and firm economic and mar-keting considerations. The following topics arecovered:

q vehicle characteristics,

q manufacturing and materials,

q fuel economy,

q emission control,

• safety technology,

q Otto cycle engines,

Ž diesels,

drivetrains and accessories, and

q electronics.

The f ina l pa r t o f the chap te r d iscusses

research on future systems or improvementsbeyond 1985, including major technologicalproblems and opportunities. Included are dis-cussions of advanced-propulsion systems, ad-vanced-vehicle designs, safety improvements,electric and hybrid vehicles, and alternate fuels.

HISTORICAL AND CURRENT TRENDS

The U.S. auto industry has accumulated amonumental store of technological expertise,experience, and research facilities in almost allaspects of its business. In addition to the multi-tude of products and developments brought topublic attention, the auto industry engages inextensive research and development activities.Although some of these R&D activities are pub-licized, many are not, either for competitive rea-sons or because the results were negative (as isthe case for much of the research in all indus-tries), or because the research lacks direct orcurrent applicability.

Some of the more important elements of theoverall technological base and the factors whichinfluence technology are discussed in this sec-tion, both to describe the probable vehicle andsystem characteristics through 1985 and to serveas a basis for forecasts to 2000 and beyond.

Several determining characteristics of theU.S. automobile industry and transporta tionsystem have been:

a high degree of standardization of vehiclesand components,

high production rates and relatively lowunit prices,

uniformity of service and repair facilities,and fuel supply systems,

aggressive industry advertising aimed at

selling moresumer tastes,

R&D efforts

cars and at influencing con-

focused on targets of highmarketability or, in recent years, high pub-lic or governmental concern,

a high degree of sales competition amongdomestic firms and with imports,

a business system which is characterized bya conservative, predictable, low-risk ap-proach in order to maintain competitivestrength, and

a market which has traditionally been re-s is ta nt t o ab ru p t o r u n u su a l p r od u ctchanges.

As a consequence of such influences, U.S.passenger car models have evolved into remark-ably similar groups of vehicles in terms of size,performance, and component characterist ics.Competition has centered on performance, com-fort, and convenience—leading to gradual, in-cremental increases in size and weight. Differentbuyer needs and levels of affluence have beenaccommodated by each manufacturer by sup-plying a similar range of vehicles, with pricesthat were highly competit ive within size andperformance categories.

Many variations of the basic four- to six-pas-senger car have evolved — two-passenger sportscars, economy cars, limousines, and recre-

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ational vehicles—but the basic concept and me-chanical components remain much the same.The primary industry goal continues to be tosupply a range of products (at a profit) that willmeet the mobility needs of most U.S. familyunits. In recent years, this range has broadenedconsiderably.

The size and performance characteristics of

specific models or classes of vehicles haveshown a trend of reasonably steady increasesover the past 30 years. Recently, however, emis-sion regulations required tuning engines tolower performance ratings, and in 1977, overallvehicle downsizing began to reduce weight foradded fuel economy. The most popular U.S.sizes were in the range of 115- to 118-inchwhee lbase and 3 ,000- to 4 ,500-pound curbweight. The sales-weighted average passengercar weight remained remarkably constant a tabout 3,350-pound curb weight from the late-1940’s to 1974. The sales-weighted average price

also remained essentially constant in constantdollars over these years. 1

Figure 54 shows selected past and recent U.S.and foreign models to illustrate the wide varietyof packaging efficiency, and the potential forlength reduction without significant change tothe length and height of the passenger compart-ment. Table 129 shows that over the past 25years, the basic passenger compartment forstandard-size vehicles of U.S. manufacturechanged little in its critical dimensions, despitethe wide range and stead y increase in overallsize and weight.

During this same period, an increasing num-ber of comfort and convenience options were in-troduced and enthusiastically accepted. (See fig-ure 55. ) A leveling off of purchases of some of these options and sharp declines in some, par-ticularly the V-8 engine, is forecast in the nextfew years. Most of these devices add appreci-ably to fuel consumption and to manufacturers’profits, as their percentage markup is typicallyon the order of half again that of the basic vehi-cle.

In the mid- and late-1950’s, imports, typicallywith 80- to 110-inch wheelbase and 1,500- to

‘SRI International, Potential Changes in the Future Use andCharacteristics of the Automobile, contractor report prepared forOTA, January 1978; and supplemental submissions (hereinaftercited as SRI Supplement).

Figure 54.—Illustrative Automobile Sizes

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Ch. 10—Technology . 301

2,800-pound curb weight, began to capture anincreasing share of the market. The U.S. manu-facturers’ response was to introduce a family of compact and intermediate-sized cars, which re-duced the import penetration from 10 percent to5 percent in 3 years. However, the smaller U.S.cars began to grow steadily in size and weightand by 1975, the import share of the marketrose to over 18 percent—a share that they stillhold. z Imports are attractive for the feature con-tent, efficiency of space utilization and, in manycases, performance, handling, and subjectiveviews of quality and image.

During the early 1970’s, the U.S. auto manu-facturers moved more strongly into overseasmanufacture and assembly for the U.S. market.Efforts to bring captive imports into the UnitedStates were marginally successful, and somedied out after a few years of promising perform-ance. (See table 130. ) Under existing fuel-economy regulations, captive imports cannot be

averaged into the U.S. manufacturers’ fuel-economy figures after 1980. Thus, the extent of overseas manufacture and assembly of cars andparts for U.S. sale will be reduced significantlyafter that date.

The foreign-based import sales in the UnitedStates come mostly from a few large compa-nies—typically the top five firms hold morethan 65 percent of the U.S. market.3 Most of these firms are large, broadly based, and tech-nologically innovative. There are also severalsmaller firms that export to the United States.

They and the larger firms often try new technol-ogies or novel vehicle layouts at a relativelyearly stage of development as a market entrytool .4

All of these major trends in the United Statesauto industry occurred with little direct regu-latory pressure. However, when the influencesof fuel-economy, emissions, noise, safety, and

I Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, ML~ to r Vehicle Factsatzd Flgurcs 78

‘In 1976, the top five import firms were Toyata, Datsun , Volks-

wagen, Honda, and Fiat. They accounted for 969,587 of a total of 1,491,910 import sales, R,A. Wright, “Imported Cars Draw U.S.Attention, ” Az/tomoti~~(~ NeuIs 1977 Mark~f Data Book- issue, A p r .27, 1977, p. 70 .

‘Examples ot this are the Honda stratified-charge e n g i n e(CVCC), the Mazda rotary engine, the VW diesel engine, and themany import f]rms otferlng the increasingly popular front-w heei-

drive layout.

Figure 55.—Factory Installation of Selected Equipmen

from 1956 to 1976

Percent of units

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

transmission,00

0’0 / \

q

/ 1

.f

Power 1steering /

/\ /

1q

Iq

q

I Air-conditioningf A /

q

Power brakes

q

i

iregulating .devices /

. 0 S k i dcontroldevices

1 1 I I

1956 1962 1968 1974Year

SOURCE Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association, Motor Vehlc/e Facts and Figures, ’78.

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1950 1957 1967 1974 1975 1976 1977

119213.2

79.955.439.142.2

3,570

327427

121.5222.7

79.553.939.642.5

4,389

350454

121.5222.7

79.554.538.942.5

4,318

350454

121.5222.7

79.554.738.542.6

4,361

350454

116212.1

76563942.2

3,771

305350

damageability regulations are added, it is ob-vious that the industry and its products haveentered a period of unprecedented change.

Materials, Design,

and Manufacturing Processes

Capabilities in the field of automotive mate-rials, design, and manufacturing processes havereached a very high level in the automobile in-dustry . Requirements, schedules, and futuregoals are relatively clear. Production volumesare adequate to make exploration of relativelyminor improvements worthwhile. The designgoal is the optimum combination of perform-ance, cost, risk, and flexibility of application.

A typical car includes about 50 percent car-

bon steel, 15 percent cast iron, 8 percent otheriron and steel, 6 percent rubber, 2.5 percentplastics, 2.5 percent glass, and 2.6 percentaluminum. (See table 131. ) The primary manu-facturing processes of concern are sheet-metalstamping and welding, followed by ferrous cast-

— — — — — — —

— — — — — — 3 — — — — — — 41

ing. These are well-established processes withli t t le chance for innovations other than re-sponses to the changing economics of energyand process emission control.

Alloy steels are used in gears, bearings, forg-ings, and other highly stressed parts. Typically,

these parts are forged and machined, and arecontinually the subject of improved manufac-turing processes. “Chipless machining” concepts

Table 131 .—Automobile Material Usedin a 1974 Plymouth Valiant

Ibs/car % Wgt.

Plain carbon steel . . . . . . . . 1,630 52.4Cast iron. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436 14.2Other iron & steel . . . . . . . . 254 8.2Aluminum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 2.6Rubber . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 5.9Plastics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 2.5

Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5Copper/zinc/lead. . . . . . . . . 89 2.9Soft trim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 2.4Sound deadeners . . . . . . . . 52 1.7Misc. (fluids, paint, solder). 165 5.3

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,111 100SOURCE SRI, p V 37

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such as spline rolling and powder metal fabrica-tion are preferred and are being expanded as fastas their process economics become favorable.

Most aluminum parts are cast or made of stamped sheet. Aluminum usage has risen toabout 100 pounds per car in 1977, and is ex-pected to go to 150 pounds by 1980. ExtensiveR&D on stamping and spot welding of alumi-

num may enable carmakers to replace more andmore steel parts with aluminum. The need forweight reduction and the availability of cylinderwall-coating processes (e. g., the Nikasil or theKawasaki exploding wire scheme) could con-ceivably reawaken interest in the ChevroletVega die-cast aluminum-engine concept. If sucha cylinder block went into production, it wouldr ep lace h e a v ie r ca s t ir o n w i t h a n o t h er 5 0pounds or so of aluminum per car. Also, manu-facture of aluminum wheels of competitive priceand performance out of strip with a welded-incenter section has recently been accomplished,

These parts are expected to replace a fair per-centage of steel wheels.

Ch, 10— Technology q 303

Years ago, plastic parts were generally injec-tion molded or extruded, In recent years, the useof sheet-molding compounds has taken over thebulk of plastic applications by weight. The useof plastics rose to about 160 pounds per car in1977, and is expected to go up to 240 pounds percar by 1980, replacing heavier materials. Re-search into the use of plastics and integratedfoam structures for structural and body partsmay provide further possibilities in this area,

Because iron and steel are plentiful, and be-cause many parts of cars can ‘be made of alter-nate materia ls, automotive materia ls are notviewed as a problem, either from a standpointof availability or ability to meet performanceneeds w ell beyond 1985.

The basic design and structure of the automo-bile has remained essentia lly unchanged formany years. Two basic configurations haveevolved—the unit body and frame and the “con-

ventional” separate body and frame. In the lat-ter, the vehicle consists of a steel chassis or

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frame to which the suspension system, wheels,engine, and drivetrain are attached. The vehiclebody (consisting of floor, firewall, roof, door,fender, hood and trunk panels, along with innerpanels, support members, seats, etc., weldedand bolted into place) is then fastened to theframe.

In the unit body and frame concept, the sus-

pension, drivetrain, and engine are attached toreinforced areas of the body, rather than to aseparate frame. A variation of this theme is thestub frame concept in which the engine andfront suspension are mounted to a short or stubframe attached to the unit body in the vicinity of the firewall. A unit body and frame is generallylighter and more compact, but it is much moredifficult to isolate the occupants from enginea n d r o a d n o is e . U .S.-m a n u fa ct u r ed p i ck u ptrucks are all of the full-frame type. Two of thethree U.S.-built vans have unibody construc-tion.

All of these vehicle structures offer com-parable qualities of durability, cost, ease of manufacture, marketability, etc. The level of ef-ficiency achieved through these assembly proc-esses allows the automobile industry to producean average of 25,000 to 30,000 passenger carsper day.

Propulsion Systems

The first patented internal combustion engine

(ICE) was a two-cycle, developed by a Belgiannamed Etienne Lenoir in Paris around 1860. Thefour-cycle engine was developed 20 years laterby a German, Nicholas Otto. Ironically, coalgas, which was over half hydrogen, was the pri-mary fuel for these early engines. Petroleumproducts came into play as the industry devel-oped. s

In the early years, the ICE faced stiff competi-tion from electric motors and steam engines.However, because of the ICE’s higher thermalefficiency and the ability to run long periods of time at high speeds, i t became the primary

powerplant in motor vehicles.

The ICE began as a one- or two-cylinder

machine. It was heavy, noisy, dirty, and onlysemidependable. As the industry expanded andprogressed, so did the engines, into 4-, 6-, 8-,12-, and even 16-cylinder engines. In the 1950’s,the smooth, dependable overhead-valve V-8engine was introduced on a wide scale and rosein popularity quickly. In recent years, it hasbeen used in more than 70 percent of passengercars manufactured in the United States. (See

figure 55. ) However, the need to reduce fuelconsumption is expected to reverse this trend asmore smaller and lighter cars are introduced.

In the post-World War II period, engine effi-ciency was increased through higher compres-sion ratios and reduced friction. Increased effi-ciency was accompanied by an increase in theoctane rating of motor fuel. As octane numbersapproached 100, refining costs increased muchmore rapidly, and high-performance engineswere approaching the point where only mar-ginal gains in efficiency could be achieved from

higher compression ratios. Also, anticipated in-creases in international shipments of refinedpetroleum products acted to keep U.S. octanelevels more in line with the lower levels else-where in the world. As a result, octane numberspeaked around 1970. (See figure 56, )

In response to early emission control require-ments (1968), engines were detuned (e. g., re-tarded spark, changed valve timing, and fuelmixture changes). In 1971, engines were modi-fied to accept lead-free gasoline. The modifica-tions included reducing compression ratios and

making related changes to valves and seats.With the advent of catalytic converters in 1975,engines were retuned to attain optimum per-formance and minimum fuel consumption. Nowmost engines are designed to run on regular-grade (91 octane) unleaded fuel.

Drivetrain

With few exceptions, U.S. passenger cars forthe last 50 years have used a front engine withattached transmission and rear-wheel drive. Au-tomatic transmissions first appeared in the late1930’s; they now comprise about 90 percent of the market.

Early mechanical schemes, including auto-matic clutches and preselected gear changes,

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f l o u r i s h e d b r i e f l y , a s d i d f l u i d c o u p l i n g s ( n o

t o r q u e m u l t i p l i c a t i o n ) . H o w e v e r , t h e s e l o s t o u t

t o t h e h y d r o k i n e t i c s t o r q u e c o n v e r t e r c o m b i n e d

w i t h t w o - o r t h r e e - s p e e d p l a n e t a r y g e a r s e t s

w h i c h a r e e n g a g e d b y d i s c o r b a n d c l u t c h e s .

These units are the only automatics available to-day in the U.S. passenger cars. Some four-speedautomatics and some automatics with torqueconverter lockup were available in the 1940’s

and 1950’s, but disappeared because of cost andlack of interest in fuel economy.

A manual transmission with a single-disc,dry-plate clutch is the only alternative to theautomatic now available. These transmissionsare usually associated with sports, performance,or economy cars. For U.S.-made cars, the majority of manual transmissions have been three-speed. Four-speed units are usually associatedwith the large high-performance engine or withfuel-efficient imports. In the last few years,four-speed and even five-speed units have be-

come available for economy cars. Essentially,a ll manual and automatic transmissions aredirect drive in the final gear, although a limitednumber of U.S. cars have been available with anoverdrive attached to the manual transmission.Although overdrive had a gear ratio as low as0.7 and provided some improvement in fueleconomy, it was never particularly popular.

U.S. cars have almost universally used a unitrear-axle housing with a hypoid geared differen-tial. In order to achieve improved fuel economy,this final drive gear ratio has dropped in recentyears from the range of 3.5 to 4.o to about 2.ofor large cars.

Regulation

Traditionally, the passenger car industry hasbeen regulated only in the tax, antitrust, andsimilar business-oriented areas. In the 1960’s, itbecame apparent that automobiles and their usewere responsible for a number of serious socialproblems, and a series of emission control andsafety regulations were initiated. In 1973, the oilembargo prompted Government regulation of fuel economy.

1

Ch. 10— Technology q

Figure 56.—Historical Source of Octane

00

90

80

70

60

50

Quality in Commercial Gasolines

Grams of lead addedper gallon

lead addition

Refining

Premium

I I 1 I I I I

305

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Grams of lead added

Regular

I I 1 I I I I

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

SOURCE S/3/, p v-10

Attempts to improve consumer protection bycontroll ing automobile design features havebeen initiated, and appear to be at least some-

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what effective. Mandatory provision of productinformation may also influence vehicle designs.

The major remaining area in which regulationis likely is the limitation of places or conditionsof auto use. (See chapter 6.) Auto use restric-t ions are of concern technologically becausethey could increase the demand for small, low-performance, nonpo l lu t i ng commute r ca r s .

However, specialty cars probably will not be-come a significant part of U.S. auto productionthrough the year 2000 unless specific policies en-couraging such vehicles are adopted.

Other potential regulatory topics such asrecycling and materials use do not yet appear onthe horizon, although at some point they maybe of importance from the perspective of overallnational goals.

Emissions

The history of U.S. auto emissions control ispresented in table 132. The regulatory effortprogressed from a relatively modest start inCalifornia to a major broadly based Federal ef-fort characterized by frequent changes to theregulated emission levels. A strong regulatoryagency evolved and industry responses soonbecame a major part of their R&D activities.

Early efforts in controlling vehicle emissionsresulted in penalties in fuel economy. The oilembargo made clear the requirement for a bal-

anced approach to reduced emissions and im-proved fuel economy. Fortunately, some of thetechnological responses, such as the stratified-charge engine or the catalytic converter, allowsubstantial reductions in emissions and opera-tion at minimum fuel consumption. Health ef-fects, atmospheric phenomena, and other as-pects of air quality are not completely under-stood, but air pollution is widely perceived by

the public as a health problem and a blight tocities. Thus, vehicular emission control will un-doubtedly be continued and possibly even tight-ened.

Currently, three products contained in the ex-haust of automobiles are controlled on the basisof grams per mile emitted. They are hydrocar-bons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and oxidesof nitrogen (NOX). The manufacturers must cer-tify that their engines will meet the grams permile emission requirements for 50,000 miles of vehicle travel before their vehicles can be sold to

the public.

The Federal requirements for 1979 model yearpassenger cars are 1.5 grams per mile HC, 15grams per mile CO, and 2.o grams per mi leNO, . I n 1981 and beyond , t he Fede ra l r e -quirements wil l be 0.4 HC, 3.4 CO, and 1.0N OX. California has a different, more stringentschedule and lower allowable levels for theseemissions. (See table 132. )

Table 132.—Summary of California and Federal Passenger Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards,1970 to 1982 and Later

Hydrocarbons (gm/mi) Carbon monoxide (gm/mi) Oxides of nitrogen (gm/mi)

Model year California Federal California Federal California Federal

1 970a. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 23 23 no std. no std.1971a. . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.2 23 23 4.0 no std.

1972b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 3.2 no std.

1973b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 3.0 3.0

1974b. . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.4 39 39 2.0 3.0

1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 1.5 9 15 2.0 3.11976 . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 1.5 9 15 2.0 3.1

1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.0

1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.0

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 1.5 9 15 1.5 2.01980 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 .4 9 7 1 .O

c

2.0

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 .4 3.4 3.4 1 .O

c

1.01982 and later . . . . .41 .4 7 3.4 .4 1.0

aTests conducted using 7 mode” test cycle a 137 second drlvln9 cYclebTe~ts conducted ~slng cr~.72 test cycle, a ~on~tant volume sample l f l~l”d log Cold start FOr 1975 and later the test cycle IS a crs 75, which (ncludes cold and hot

startsC Fo r r -a l , fornla o r ly, a 100,000 m, Ie Certl fl~at Ion IS opt Ional w I t h the NOX standard at 1 5 g ml ml

SOURCE SRI p V 23

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Ch. 10— Technology . 307

Several components and systems for meetingthese emission standards are currently beingused or are in the development or planningstages. These include designs for improved com-bustion (e.g., electronic control of ignition tim-ing and fuel metering, stratified-charge con-cepts), improved after-treatment systems (e. g.,three-way catalyst), diesel engines, turbines,and Stirling engines.

The detailed list of technological options islong, and there is a high probability of meetingregulatory goals. The present exploratory phaseof industry development will gradually shifttoward full exploitation of the optimum com-binations that evolve. The manufacturers willprobably choose different combinations of op-tions, although electronic control of the air-fuelratio and ignition timing will probably be vir-tually universal by 1981.

The announcement of a 0 .4-gram-per-mile

N OY standard for California passenger cars in1982 and beyond introduces a more difficulttechnical problem than does the Federal stand-ard of 1.0 gram per mile. To date, no conceptshave been demonstrated that can meet this levelwith typical large U.S. spark-ignition engines(SIE). Volvo, Saab, and GM have demonstratedthat they can meet this 0.4 NO X r e q u i r e m e n twith a three-way catalyst system on four-cyl-inder engines. However, the ability to meet therequirement for 50,000 miles without mainte-nance and under high-production conditions hasnot been demonstrated.

Fuel Economy

Passenger car fuel consumption in the aggre-gate is measured on the basis of gasoline taxreceipts and total vehicle miles traveled (VMT).These measures reflect a long-term decline infuel economy per auto from about 15.3 mpg in1940 to 13.1 mpg in 1973. ’ The national speedlimit of 55 mph, the catalytic converter, and in-dustry efforts to improve fuel economy resultedin improvement to 13.5 mpg by 1975. Total fuelconsumption is a function of VMT, the waythese miles are driven (speed, acceleration, etc. ),and the inherent efficiency (expressed as milesper gallon) of the average vehicle. Only the lat-ter parameter is considered in this section.

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 mandated new car fuel economies of 20mpg by 1980 an d 27.5 mpg by 1985 on a manu-facturer’s fleet average basis. ’ It seems that thesegoals can be met, but the industry is concernedabout consumer acceptance of the vehicle modi-fications that are necessary. Prospective meth-ods for meeting the goals include weight reduc-

tion; improved engine efficiency; reduced lossesin tires, drive line, transmission, and acces-sories; and improvements in aerodynamics andoverall vehicle optimization. The challenge liesin finding the combinations that meet the publicneeds of adequate performance, capacity, emis-sions, safety, cost, durability, and general ap-peal.

Safety

Regulation of motor vehicle safety above andbeyond evolutionary improvements in the de-sign, construction, performance, and handlingof motor vehicles, is achieved primarily throughthe application of the Federal Motor VehicleSafety Standards, issued and enforced by theNational Highway Traffic Safety Administra-tion (NHTSA). Approximately 50 safety stand-ards are in effect, most of which apply to pas-senger cars. (See table 133. ) The technology re-quired to meet many of the Federal Motor Vehi-cle Safety Standards is not particularl y c o m -plex; once it is developed and incorporated intoa vehicle, the unit cost in most cases is not great.The regulated vehicle safety features are con-sidered to be partially responsible for the reduc-tion in the rate8 of highway deaths since 1966.

Another responsibility of NHTSA is the in-vestigation of vehicle defects, often leading torecall campaigns by the auto manufacturers. In

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Table 133.—Chronology of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Regulations

—Date Issued Standard

February 27,1976 . . . . . . .

SOURCE U S Department of Transportation, National Iilghway Traffic Safety Adm[rlstratlon. Traffic Safety ’76 — —

the period 1966 to 1975, 52 million vehicles were Accident avoidance includes features such asrecalled, or 43 percent of total production. better acceleration, improved brakes, improved

It is generally agreed that the majority of lighting and visibility, and improved handling.Such features are marketable commodities, but

crashes are the result of driver error or mis-perception. Thus far, there are few suggestions

some are costly. Also, there is not clear evidence

for improving the capability and reliability of that all of these features contribute significantlyto reductions in the number of crashes.

th e typ ica l d r iv e r. Re gu la to ry e ffor t s h a v efocused on improved occupant protection and, In contrast, occupant protection is effective,to a lesser extent, accident avoidance. a n d th e r e su l t s c a n b e e v a lu a te d . P a ss iv e

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Ch. 10— Technology • 309

r e s t r a i n t s y s t e m s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r i n t r o d u c t i o n

in the 1982-84 model years. This technology isdeveloped and no technical difficulties are fore-seen. However, the data on the effectiveness of these systems are still being debated and addi-tional field experience is desirable. Also, publicacceptance of passive restraints is presentlyunknown.

Most safety goals conflict with fuel-economygoals since additional safety equipment or struc-ture means more weight and lower fuel econ-omy. Also, small fuel-efficient cars have thepotentia l for re la tively higher fa ta li ty ra tesbecause occupant protection is partly a functionof crush distance and relative vehicle weights.

Although the “no-damage” bumper was in-troduced under Federal Motor Vehicle SafetyStandard 215, there is a slim justification forconsidering this to be a safety feature. It is nowpart 581 of the 1972 Motor Vehicle Information

and Cost Savings Act. It is expected that this re-quirement will stay in effect and, through designimprovements, the cost and weight penaltieswill be minimal.

Potential Regulatory Areas

Passenger car noise will probably become thesubject of Federal regulation in the future .Ho we v er , a t p re se n t, t ru ck s are b y far th eloudest sources of highway noise and are moreappropriate targets for regulation.

So far the only significant passenger car noise

standards are those in California. The Califor-nia limits are 76 dBA below 35 mph and 82 d BAabove 35 mph. Current gasoline-powered auto-mobiles already meet the California standards.Diesel engines are noisier than spark ignitionengines at low speeds, but at medium and highspeeds, tire and wind noise dominate for bothtypes of vehicles. Reduction of tire noise is theobject of much research.

In the case of radiation of electromagneticenergy by the automobile’s ignition system, it isreported that the industry is establishing stand-ards of its own. 9 However, some Federal agencymay well add this to its regulatory spectrum.

Regulations designed to control corrosiondamage may evolve in the near future, particu-

‘SI<I, p L’-38

larly in view of the obvious and unnecessaryfinancial impacts of corrosion. Canada is work-ing very hard on establishing a uniform codethat would limit corrosion damage.

As one avenue of engine design turns moreand more to very lean mixtures and high com-pression heterogeneous fuel/ air charges (FordPROCO, Texaco TCCS), ignition systems with

even higher energy content per discharge are re-quired. Some contemplated systems could pro-duce a lethal shock for the unwary mechanic.Products such as these are unlikely to be offeredin the general marketplace.

Recent information indicates that variousfluorocarbon gases react with the ozone in theEarth’s atmosphere, with the potential for in-creasing the amount of sunlight (a t certa inwavelengths) that reaches the Earth’s surface.To minimize this effect, such compounds are be-ing eliminated as propellants for spray cans.

Similar compounds (e.g., Freon R’ 12) are thepreferred working fluid in most small refrigera-tive air-conditioners, including those used inmotor vehicles. All such vehicle systems are of the nonhermetically sealed type, and thus havea potential for leakage, either when in use orwhen scrapped. As a result, such systems maybe inappropriate. An alternative approach is touse a refrigerative cycle where the air to becooled is the workin g fluid (e. g., ROVAC orturbo expander). These systems, at least in theirpresent forms, are bulkier, more complex andmore costly. As experience is gained, this situa-tion may be greatly improved.

Under the 1972 Motor Vehicle Informationand Cost Savings Act, NHTSA must determinecrash susceptibility, crashworthiness, associatedinsurance costs, and ease of diagnosis and repairof mechanical and electrical problems. This in-formation must then be made known to the pub-lic for each make and model of car. AlthoughSweden has had most elements of such a pro-gram in effect for years, this program has yet tobe implemented in the United States. If i tshould, the effects on the competitive posture of

at least some of the various domestic and importautomobiles would likely be noteworthy. Smallcars might suffer a setback in public acceptancefor safety reasons, and favorable ratings wouldbe crucial to the survival of smaller manufac-turers.

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AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY TO 1985

As discussed in the previous section, many of the regulatory patterns and resulting technologi-cal responses that will appear between now and1985 have already been established—at least inbroad terms. The auto industry has publicized a

number of alternative plans for meeting regu-lated economy goals, and it is generally con-ceded that the goals can be met from the stand-point of technology.

However, the changes involved are costly interms of R&D, tooling, and facilities, and are re-quired on a schedule that is much faster thannormal industry response times. Also some of the changes could easily affect customer accept-ance of major segments of the new car offerings.The industry feels that if sales were to dropsignificantly, cash flow would be affected andthe ability to finance these massive changeswo u ld b e a p ro b le m. Ac c o rd in g ly , th i s i s

viewed by the industry as a period of high riskin which only the technologies with a high prob-ability of success can be relied upon.

Downsizing and Materials Substitution

The most important changes which are slatedto occur between now and 1985 center aroundthe requirement to meet a corporate averagefuel-economy level of 27.5 mpg and, simultan-eously, the statutory emission standards of 0.41

HC, 3.4 CO, and 1.0 N OX. The industry re-sponse has been to embark on a major programof downsizing all cars in the product line, reduc-ing weight by changes in materials, design, andvehicle layout, and instituting fuel-saving fea-tures in almost every component of the vehicle.Simultaneous developments in engine modifica-tions and new engines and fuels are being pur-sued; Government incentives and assistance arebeing provided in this latter area. Individualmajor aspects of this overall program are dis-cussed below.

Major gains in weight reduction are beingachieved by both downsizing and materials sub-stitution. Materials substitution includes the useof lightweight designs and materials, and is aso me wh a t s lo we r p ro c e ss th a n s imp le s i z echanges.

Weight reduction by downsizing generallytakes the form of closer packaging of the mainvehicle components reducing interior wastespace and, in some cases, reducing width fromthree- to two-abreast seating. Some of the most

important gains are achieved by shortening thetrunk overhang and reducing styling-inducedwaste space from the firewall forward. Suchmajor body changes are equivalent to, but moreextensive than, the major styling changes thatthe industr y previousl y undertook for competi-tive reasons. In the smallest car categories, it isgenerally agreed that the most practical way toachieve maximum effic iency of packagingpower train components is to use a front engine,front-wheel-drive layout. Many small Europeancars and several U.S. cars have adopted thisconcept. Costs are slightly higher than for a

conventional rear-wheel-drive layout, but thismay now be offset by the importance of savingweight and optimizing interior volume. As moreexperience is gained, front-wheel drive willprobably be tried on new, lightweight largercars.

Weight reduction by materials substitution isinextricably intertwined with considerations of cost, performance, appearance, durability, ma-terials compatibility, and similar parameters.Some substitution concepts allow the redesignof not only the principal part but also associated

parts. This effect is referred to as “cascading,”that is, the iterative effect of weight reduction.

Other forms of weight reduction includeelimination of the spare tire as a result of im-proved tire durability and puncture resistance,use of a smaller tire for the spare, reduction of engine block casting-wall thickness, and lighterwheels and batteries. Most of these are “one-shot” opportunities, but not all have been ex-ploited.

Associated with downsizing is the planned

reduction in engine size, usually described a scubic inch displacement (CID), and reduction inthe size of all related transmission and drive-train components. The size of these componentscan be reduced to the minimum level that willproduce acceptable performance (typically zero

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Ch. 10—Technology q 3 1 1

to 60 mph acceleration times of about 16 to 18seconds).

Engine downsizing results in improved fueleconomy because of reduced weight and be-cause the engine is run with the throttle openfarther more of the time. This reduces throttlingloss, which is a factor affecting overall engineefficiency. However, too small an engine for a

given car can actually result in reduced fueleconomy because much of the time, the enginewould operate in an overloaded, ineffic ientpower range.

Department of Transportation (DOT) studiesindicate that a 10-percent reduction in weightwith a reduction of engine size for constant ac-celeration performance can produce a 6.8-per-cent improvement in fuel economy. This, inconjunction with other efficiency improvementsin vehicle systems, consti tutes the generalstrategy for meeting the fuel-economy goals setat 27.5 mp g for 1985.

Presently, it appears that there are no majortechnical problems with downsizing. However,there are technical l imita tions on materia lssubstitution; progress in this area is being ac-complished as the industry develops designs andprocesses that are compatible with other manu-facturing processes. The weight reduction pro-gram requires considerably greater expendituresthan the industry’s customary annual invest-ments for redesign and retooling. Cost consid-erations are particularly important in the area of materia ls substi tution. Some substi tution of

lightweight materials (plastic, aluminum, andhigh-strength steels) has occurred, but onlywhen the cost was lower and all other capabil-ities of the substitute material were equivalentto or higher than the original material. How-ever, it is expected that greater emphasis will beplaced on weight saving, despite a slight in-crease in cost.

One potential drawback to the downsizingplan is safety. It has been reported that the rateof fatality or serious injury in a multiple-car col-lision is twice as high in a small car as in a largecar. In a crash, the rate and duration of decel-eration of the vehicle is part of the mechanismthat produces injury. This is a function of the

distance through which the deceleration occurs,referred to as the stopping distance or crushdistance. Smaller cars have much less crushdistance available. Theoretically, 4 feet is suffi-cient to decelerate a properly restrained, for-ward-facing human from 60 mph, so that theperson incurs little or no injury. Most smallcars today have that distance in front of thewindshield. lz However, the occupant compart-ment typically extends beyond the windshield.Since the engine is incompressible, the availablecrush distance is reduced further. Even in thelargest cars, the crush distance is only margin-ally adequate.

For small cars, additional mechanisms are re-quired to help decelerate the occupants in high-speed barrier crashes. The only current con-tenders are energy-absorbing restraint systems,such as air bags, or special belt systems thatallow the occupants to decelerate while movingcloser to the dash and firewall (thus utilizing all

of the available interior space as well as thevehicle crush distance). At this time, this issomewhat academic, since current barrier crashrequirements, set at 30 mph, are easily met bylarge and small cars.

Another obvious drawback to downsizing isthe reduction in capacity of vehicles, and thereduction in comfort associated with space. Thecurrent six-passenger full-size sedan will mostlikely be replaced by a car offering the samelevel of comfort for only four passengers.

The reduction in engine sizes to achieve

higher fuel economy and the increased engine ef-ficiency, achieved through operating with thethrottle closer to wide open, may reduce enginelife expectancy. In addition, increased emissionsof nitrogen oxides can occur.

The major domestic manufacturers are deeplyinvolved in extensive downsizing programs.These programs are projected to reduce averageinertia weight by about 800 to 1,000 poundsduring the 1978-81 model years. A secondround of downsizing is also planned to permitachievement of the 1985 fuel-economy stand-

ards.The corresponding improvements in new car

1‘W’. Haddon, J r . , “Reducing the Damage of Motor-VehicleUse, ” Tcc}zFr~>lt?gv RLz~IeuI, Iu]j-August ]975, p, 59,“Data from the Insurance Institute tor Highway Satety.

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fleet fuel economy expected from the initialdownsizing programs are about 3 to 4 mpg.Table 134 summarizes the potential new carfleet average inertia weight achievable throughbody redesign by 1981.

The specific plans for downsizing and foralternatives for different conditions of timingand emission penalties were submitted by the

U.S. manufacturers in response to a Federal in-quiry. GM, for example, reduced the length—both wheel-base and bumper-to-bumper—of its1977 model year full-size cars to obtain weightsavings of 650 to 950 pounds.

The manufacturers’ plans have been adjustedmany times, and may well be changed again.However, it seems likely that the response willbe along the lines illustrated by the GeneralMotors Alternative III approach, which consistsof:

q

q

q

weight reduction by redesign and materials

substitution;use of some diesels; and

engine, transmission, and miscellaneousimprovements.

The general categories of changes, the projected timing, model-by-model differences, andengine selections are given in figure 57 andtables 135 and 136, using the GM documenta-tion as an example. Changes will differ amongco mp an ie s, a n d a d d i t io n a l ch a n g es b e yo n dthose listed may be made as 1985 approaches.

Some of these differences include:Timing and sequence of weight reductionredesigns by car model will differ.

Schedules for improvements in engines,transmissions, and misce l laneous com-ponents will differ.

Ford appears to be pursuing stra tif ied-charge technology rather than diesel as ameans of achieving a modest step-improve-ment in specific fuel consumption (SFC) 13

and emissions.

Weight reductions resulting from materialssubstitution are already being introduced

‘ ‘U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Trai-

tic Satety Administration, Office ot Automotive Fuel Economy,~t?t~~ titId ,4 H17/ysls for 1981-1984 Passerlger Automobile Fue/

Ero)~(lmy .St~;)/Jar& Document 2, Vol. 1, Feb. 28, 1977,

q

q

q

on a scheduled basis, and could be calledupon to p rov ide improvements beyondthose presently planned.

A surge of interest in safety considerationscould require weight additions that are notincluded in the current planning.

Further emissions control requirements

could cancel some of the anticipated gainsin engine efficiency.

Scheduling of such extensive and costlyproduct changes 8 years ahead of the finalgoal must be considered tentative and willbe subject to many unforeseen economic,social, and regulatory pressures.

Materials substitution is a continuing processin the auto industry; however, special emphasison materia ls substi tution is expected in the1982-85 period. On a part by part basis, alumi-num can, in some instances, save up to 50 per-cent of the weight of the original part. Plasticscan sometimes offer even greater savings. Theattractiveness of materials substitution lies inthe cascading effect which it produces. Reducingthe weight of a car’s body by 50 pounds throughthe use of substitute plastics or aluminum canlead to as much as 75 pounds of other savings.This is because the chassis can then be madelighter and a smaller engine can be chosen(which in turn reduces the structural needs).Table 137 illustrates some of the recent trends inthe use of materials in automobiles. Table 138

shows a hypothetical case of materials substitu-tion illustrating the cascading effect.

Downsizing and materials substitution haveimportant cost implications for the auto in-dustry. In the past, many components of thesuspension and running gear systems, acces-sories, and even some of the body panels re-mained the same during a major model change.However, with downsizing almost all of thesecomponents will change completely. Also, thecomplete product line will have to change in lessthan 8 years. This represents a difficult taskfrom the standpoint of required capital, designand production, and engineering effort. The his-torical expenditures for new plants and equip-ment are shown in figure 58.

Capital requirements for vehicle downsizingdepend partly on the capacity and flexibility of

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Ch. 10— Technology q 3 1 3

Table 134.—Vehicle Weight, 1976 and 1981

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Table 136.—General Motors Corporation Alternative Ill,Model Year 1985 Engine Production Summary

Engine (CID) Number of cylinders Transmission Percent sales85.0 4 A 1.8385.0 4 M 2.08

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.91

98.0 4 A 2.4098.0 4 M 2.00

Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.40

151.0 6 A 24.35151.0 6 M 2.27

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.62

231.0 6 A 29.55231.0 6 M 0.21

Subtotal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.76

301.0 8 A 9.30305.0 8 A 3.34

350.0 (diesel) 8 A 22.67Subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.31

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.00

Table 137.—Materials Used in a Chevrolet Impala (pounds)

PercentMaterial 1974 1977 change

Steel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,708 2,221 – 18Iron castings . . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 690 620 – 10Plastics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 200 + 43Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 115 + 7Aluminum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 69 + 17Nontire rubber. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 35 – 5

Copper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 25 – 7Zinc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 20 –17Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 405 –26

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,338 3,710 –14

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Ch. 10— Technology q315

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Table 138.—Hypothetical Vehicle Upper and Lower Body Weight Reductions (pounds)

Original Total weightArea and component weight Materials substituted savings

Upper body Windshield, cowl, dash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Center pillar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Qtr. panel, wheel hsg. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Deck panel shelf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Roof, rear window. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Front-end sheet metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9025

1245466

237 }

145

1979

43

High-strength steel(reduced thickness)

10555 }

Hood assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Deck-lid assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Aluminum(increased thickness)

4633

170

110279 }

Door assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aluminum on panelsUltra-high strength steel on door guardBeamsThinner glassAluminum & high-strength steel in

selected components

27

Glass & tracking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Interior & exterior trim & seats. . . . . . . . . .

1742

Lower body Underbody (rails, floor pan) . . . . . . . . . . . .Sills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

27249 }

High-strength steelIterative reductions

6212

Total bodyweight savings . . . . . . . . . 333

Body ChassisChassisgroup Power plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 793Final drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188Forestructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Suspension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248Steering system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76Brakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199Wheels&tires. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244 1Exhaust system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Fuel system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Bumpers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Total chasis weight savings. . . . . . . .Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,280

109394760215652

13557266

122445976236268

High-st rength steel 79

10

Aluminum&high-strength steel 22

166

145

2

1

7144 5

48 447 52 547

880(21%)

SOURCE SRL p V-18

the existing plants. Capital requirements forconversion of all the necessary production facil-ities for a 400,000-unit-per-year capacity assem-

bly plant have been estimated to be in the areaof $150 million to $250 million. This includesprovision for unassociated 1o-to20-percent in-crease in small-engine production capacity .Capital requirements for downsizing a majorpart of a manufacturer’s annual production

(e.g., 1 million cars) have been estimated to bein the range of $4OO million to $7oO million.This is a one-time expense, and compares with

total industry projected capital expenditures of $21.3 billion in the 1976-80 time frame (roughly$5 billion per year).” This adds up to about $50billion by 1985.

“Ibid,

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Ch. 10— Technology

Figure 58.—U.S. Auto Industry New Plant and Equipment Expenditures

3

2

1

0

q 3 1 7

Otto Cycle Engines

This category of engines includes the conven-tional spark ignition engine, which uses a ho-mogeneous mixture of gasoline and air that ispremixed upstream of the intake valve. It alsoincludes prechamber and single-chamber strati-fied-charge concep ts , and var ious fo rms of rotary engines.

The vast majority of automotive experienceand R&D effort is associated with Otto cycleengines. There appears to be opportunity forimproving such engines in terms of emissions,size, weight, and specific fuel consumption. Inaddition to direct engine improvements, there isconsiderable potential for cleanup of exhaustemissions downstream of the basic engine. Also,various methods for reducing effective enginesize, such as turbocharging or the Eaton valveselector, c a n h e l p i m p r o v e v e h i c l e f u e leconomy.

Most of the changes that have been made tomeet emissions and fuel-economy regulationsaffect internal or external aspects of conven-tional engines. Examp les of “internal” changesinclude:

q control of ignition timing and duration,

higher energy spark,

quick warmup features,

modifications to manifold flow passages,

valve timing and overlap,

increased swirl in the combustion chamberfor better combustion,

improved mixture preparation, and

optimum mixture ratios through more ac-curate control systems (e. g., electronic).

The “external” approaches have included:

. exhaust gas recirculation (EGR),

. air injection into exhaust ports (air pumpsystem),

. catalytic converters, and

feedback control of mixture ratio (controlsystem with external sensors).

Continuations, refinements, and extensionsof these concepts are proceeding in a variety of development programs. These developmentswill probably contribute significantly to meet-ing the emission requirements and mandatedfuel-economy goals.

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Catalytic Control of Exhaust Emissions

The typical emissions control system on mostdomestic new cars is shown in figure 59. Itsmain components are the oxidation catalyst andsupportive engine controls. The oxidation cat-alyst was first installed on most domestic newcars in model year 1975. Through exhaust gasrecirculation (EGR), NOX emissions are general-ly controlled by diluting the incoming chargewith relatively inert exhaust gases. This addedexhaust gas reduced peak combustion tempera-ture (a controllin g factor in the reaction of nitro-gen and oxygen to form NOX).

The two-way oxidation catalyst commonlyuses platinum and palladium to oxidize hydro-carbons and carbon monoxide. It can meet theemission standards of 0.41 gram per mile for HCand 3.4 grams per mile for CO in almost allcases. Oxidation catalysts generally operate atlower temperatures and allow engine tuning forbetter fuel economy than is achieved by thermal

reactors (used by at least one foreign manufac-turer) that require excess oxygen.

The three-way catalyst is expected by mostindustry sources to be the system chosen forachieving 1981 Federal emission standards while

Figure 59.—Typical Emission Control System

Carburetors containquick pull choke and

mechanical ventingQuick I HC-CO oxidizing

heat manifold \ I

converterExhaust gas /

Warmup control valve

.’i’

High energy “

ignition

Case Studies of Foreign Government Policies and Experience, Draft, March 1977,

obtaining close to maximum fuel economy. Thissystem is now used in some California cars.

The three-way catalyst employs platinum,rhodium, and palladium as the active noblemetal ingredients for conversion of CO, HC,and NOX. Very precise air/ fuel ratio control isrequired, and this can be provided by car-buretors or fuel injection in conjunction with anoxygen sensor feedback control system. Op-timim emission control and close to optimumfuel economy are achieved simultaneously byrunning at stoichiometric (chemically correct)air/ fuel ratio.

There are no significant technical restraintsaccompanying the use of the oxidation catalystin meeting current emissions requirements otherthan degradation of this system over t ime.There is some concern that the system will notperform well near the end of the 50,00&milelifecycle and that consumers may not replacethe catalysts when necessary.

Early indications that the oxidation catalystwas a fire hazard have subsided. Also, a sus-pected increase of emissions of sulfur oxidesthrough the use of the catalytic converter hasproven unfounded.

Primary obstacles to marketing the three-waycatalyst are:

q

q

q

Rapid depletion of the available supply of rhodium may result from using a high plati-num / rhodium ratio in the construction of the three-way catalyst and from high plati-

num loading per cubic inch of engine dis-placement. The naturally occurring plati-num/ rhodium mine mix of 19: I is being ex-perimented with, although a platinum/ rho-dium ratio of 5:1 gives better control. Thedevelopment of base metal catalysts wouldbe desirable in order to relieve the demandfor noble metals.

The oxygen sensor, critical for operation of the system, currently lasts about’ 15,000miles, and replacement is necessary.

The cost of the complete three-way emis-sion control system is somewhat higherthan that of the two-way catalyst. EPA’ssummary of retail sticker price increases,derived from manufacturers’ estimates,shows a range of $113 to $176 over 1977

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Ch. 10— Technology . 319

model year base prices for the three-waysystem.

Catalyst reactor systems have been applied innew cars since 1975. Use of even more effectivecatalyst-based emission control systems maybecome universal in 1981.

Volvo has installed the Engelhard three-waycatalyst and electronic feedback control on

some of its 1977 cars. Ford and General Motorsh a v e in t ro d u c e d th i s sy s te m o n a l im i te dnumber of their 1978 new cars in California inorder to comply with the t ighter Californiaemission standards and to gain operating ex-perience prior to full-scale use. Further researchby U.S. automakers involves refinement of theequipment for greater durability and improvedefficiency.

The prospects for development of an effectiveand durable base-metal catalyst are uncertainand no realistic time frame can be suggested.

However, th is advance is important from astandpoint of protecting against disruption ordiminution of foreign sources of noble metals.

Some small additional investment in R&D onadvanced catalyst systems will probably con-tinue, and work on base-metal catalysts willcontinue. Much of this will be funded by thesuppliers to the auto industry as well as the automanufacturers.

Stratified-Charge Engines

In a general sense, the term stratified charge is

applied to any engine in which combustion oc-curs with large variations in mixture ratio in theoverall combustion chamber. Charge stratifica-tion is a fundamental aspect of any enginewhere fuel is injected directly into the combus-tion chamber and ignition occurs before the fuelair mixture becomes homogeneous (as a resultof diffusion, turbulence, swirl, etc.). All diesels,d i rec t - in jec t ion gaso l ine eng ines (such asPROCO, TCCS and the like), and most externalcombustion engines can be included in thiscategory.

Another general form of charge stratificationhas received much attention in recent years. Ituses two separate chambers with a rich fuel/ airratio in one (usually a small prechamber con-taining the spark plug) and a very lean mixturein the other (or main) combustion chamber. In

most such engines, a relatively homogeneousgasoline-air mixture is fed into both chambers;the flame from the fuel-rich prechamber ensuresignition and relatively complete combustion of all of the lean mixture in the main chamber.This concept originated early in the century andwas the subject of research by British, French,Russian, American, and other developers. TheHonda CVCC (Compound Vortex Controlled

Combustion) and current U.S. efforts are rel-ative latecomers on the scene.

The two-chamber stratified-charge engines at-tempt to reduce emissions by two mechanisms.First , the two chambers operate a t mixtureratios such that NOX formation is reduced. Sec-ond, the flame ignition of the main charge issupposed to be vigorous enough so that theamount of unburned hydrocarbons is reduced atall load conditions. These effects do occur, butthe Honda CVCC currently requires an exhaustmanifold reactor to meet HC regulations and

will require EGR to meet future NO X s tandards .Fuel economy should be little different from anyother engine running at the best overall econ-omy mix ture ra t io (s l igh t ly be low s toich i-ometric). Disadvantages of this system includethe higher cost of the more complex cylinderhead, prechamber, and third-valve system, andthe extra maintenance associated with thesecomponents.

The single-chamber, direct-injection strati-fied-charge engines include the Ford PROCO( P r o g r a m m e d C o m b u s t i o n ) , T e x a c o T C C S(Texaco Controlled Combustion System), GMDISC (Direc t In jec t ion S tra t i f ied Charge) ,MAN-FM (Maschienenfabrik Augsburg—Nurn-berg A. G.-Frau Meurer), and others. Several of these can use a variety of fuels ranging fromdiesel to high-octane gasoline. The MAN-FM isgenerally viewed as being a spark-ignited diesel,while the others are viewed as direct-injectiongasoline engines.

The direct-injection gasoline engines haveeither very low or no octane requirement, andgenerally operate a t moderate compressionratios. At 11:1 compression ratio, the PROCO

can operate on 80-octane gasoline, while theTCCS has no octane or cetane limit.

The PROCO engine proponents feel that itsperformance will equal or excel that of a typicalpassenger car diesel in all important parameters,

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including emissions, fuel economy, noise, cost,starting, weight, size, and durability.

In the PROCO engine, intake manifold andports handle only air and, if EGR is used forN OX control, exhaust gas. Therefore, the intakemanifold system need not contend with thefuel atomization, vaporization, and distributionproblems common in other Otto engines. Fuel is

injected into the swirling air in the main com-bustion chamber under moderate pressure dur-ing the compression process, and injection ter-minates before ignition occurs. The proper tim-ing of fuel injection and ignition events is impor-tant to satisfactory operation of the engine. ThePROCO engine utilizes either one or two sparkplugs per cylinder. An oxidation catalyst is re-quired if HC emissions are to be less than 1 to 2grams per mile, especially in larger cars.

The current PROCO engines operate at 11. O-to 11.5 -to-l compression ratio, and EGR of up

to 25 percent will be required to meet futureN OX limits. The engine was originally devel-oped to run unthrottled with output controlledby the amount of fuel injected, as in a diesel.However, to meet the HC requirements, a mod-est amount of throttling is required at part loadand idle.

Physically, the TCCS and DISC engines arevery similar to the PROCO, differing mainly indetails of fuel injection timing and pattern, andin combustion chamber geometry and air flowpatterns. The various types of direct-injectionstratified-charge engines offer considerablepotentia l for simultaneously achieving lowemissions, good fuel economy, and tolerancefor a wide range of fuels. Particulate and odorproblems, however, may be similar to those of current diesels.

Honda has been successful in marketing theirstratified-charge engine (the CVCC). No othermanufacturers have chosen to produce the dual-chamber stra tif ied-charge engine, althoughHonda has sold the rights to at least one U.S.manufacturer.

Domestic car companies are investing primar-ily in the single-chamber direct-injection ver-sion. However, investment levels are unknownand production and marketing of these enginesis not expected until the mid-1980’s,

Valve Selector

Eaton Corporation recently developed a sys-tem for keeping selected valves closed in an in-ternal combustion engine, while the rest of thee ng in e co nt in u es to o p e ra te n o rma l ly . Th eresult is a reduction from six-cylinder operationto five, four, or three cylinders, depending onthe power requirements. A solenoid-controlleddevice is added to the rocker arms of the selected

valves and, upon activation, these valves stayclosed. Keeping the intake and exhaust valvesclosed on one cylinder means that the air in thecylinder is repeatedly compressed and expandedwith much less loss in energy. An improvementin fuel economy of about 10 percent is typical,although this varies for different engine/ vehiclecombinations.

The second part of the system is an electroniccontrol that selects the number of cylinders to bedeactivated depending on speed and load. Tran-sition from operation of all cylinders to half the

n u mb e r c a n b e q u i t e smo o th , a n d e n g in eroughness or wear is not a problem.

This system has been tested on a variety of four-, six-, and eight-cylinder engines. It is cur-rently scheduled to be introduced in 1980 on aFord V-8 engine.

Turbocharging

Turbocharging is a concept in which theenergy in the exhaust of an internal combustionengine is used to compress the incoming air or

fuel/ air mixture. Turbochargers for passengercar use are typically small high-speed devices(up to 140,000 RPM) with a centrifugal com-pressor and radial inflow turbine mounted on acommon shaft. With the engine throttle wideopen, most turbos will supply a continually in-creasing amount of air until the engine fails. Toavoid this, an automatic waste gate control isusually provided to bypass some of the exhaustaround the turbine.

In theory, turbochargers should provide animprovement in fuel economy (and sometimesin emission control) through a variety of mecha-nisms. The fundamental engine cycle efficiencyis improved, and mixing and vaporization of theincoming fuel/ air charge is usually imp roved.Hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide in the ex-haust are usually more fully consumed. Finally,

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a smaller engine may be used, so that f u e l

economy is better (more time is spent closer towide-open thro t t le , thus reduc ing th ro t t linglosses); maximum performance is retained be-cause the turbo becomes more effective at thehigher RPM. In practice to date, however, onlythe last factor has proved significant.

A number of problems accompany the use of

turbocharging and the several previous attemptsby U.S. manufacturers usually lasted for only afew years. Cost is considerably higher than forconventional engines (about $550 for the 1978Buick). Mechanical complexity and relatedmaintenance, service, and repair problems aremuch greater. Also, because the indicated meaneffected pressure is increased and the incomingcharge is heated by being compressed, it wasnecessary to add a safety system to the 1978 tur-bocharged Buick. This system detects detona-tion and automatically retards the ignition tim-ing. (One result is that trailer towing is specif-

icall y not recommended. )

There are several alternative solutions to thedetonation problem, some of which have beendeveloped for trucks and racing cars. Thesesolutions include aftercooling and antidetonantinjection, as well as a more responsive wastegate control. There are over 20 fac to ry- typepassenger car turbo projects in progress world-wide, although most are aimed at the perform-ance image rather than at fuel economy.

Turbocharging and the Eaton valve selectora re a lmost pa ra l le l concep ts fo r ach iev ing“small” engine fuel ecomomy while retainingfull power for the occasional times when it isneeded. In terms of simplicity and cost the valveselector should be superior, but consumer pref-erence for the turbo/ racing image may pr ove tobe important. If consumer acceptance is favor-able, turbocharging can be added to almost anyOtto cycle or diesel engine, although increasedstructural strength of the engine may be re-quired in some cases.

Rotary Engines

Over the last 40 to 50 years, a wide variety of rotary engines have been conceived or devel-oped to various stages. The Wankel is the mostprominent of these, although it is not generallyrealized that the engine that was finally pro-duced is only 1 of over 130 significantly dif-

ferent configurations explored by the inventor.The currently produced Wankel consists of anapproximately triangular rotor, turning insidean epitrochoidal housing. The housing is cooledby water (or air) and the rotor is cooled by theengine oil. The fuel/ air mixture enters and exitsthrough ports (in the periphery of the housingand/ or the end p lates) as they are uncovered bythe rotor.

The practical geometry of the system preventshigh compression ratios (a two-stage versionwas required to reach diesel compression ra-tios), and the combustion chamber is character-ized by high surface-to-volume ratios. The tipsand sides of the rotor must seal against the hous-ing and end plates, and these strip-seals provedto be a difficult design and development prob-lem. The seals must slip over the port openingsas in a two-cycle engine, and the intake and ex-haust port areas are at considerably differenttemperatures, thus leading to thermal distor-

tions. All of these features led to serious reliabil-i ty and l ife problems with the early MazdaWankels; however, the engine has graduallyevolved into a reasonably acceptable form.

The basic Wankel configuration provideshigh specific output (in terms of both weight andvolume) and can be “stacked” in any number of modules on the crankshaft . I t is extremelysmooth but somewhat 1ower in torque than acomparable reciprocating engine at low RPM.Wear of the seals is a serious problem unlessexotic and costly combinations of materials are

used. Early engines required the use of oil mixedin the fuel (or injected separately) to minimizethe seal wear.

Because of the low compression ratio andbuilt-in EGR (blowby), NO. emissions from aWankel are usually low. However, the largesurface-to-volume ratios and corners in thecombustion chamber shape result in higher hy-drocarbon emissions than from a reciprocatingengine.

Wankels have been produced commerciallyby NSU and Mazda for passenger cars, and by

other companies as motorcycle, snowmobile,outboard, diesel , and various other engines.GM purchased the rights to produce Wankelsfor $5o million but, shortly before reaching pro-duction, returned the project to R&D status.GM la te r t e rmin a te d wo rk o n th e Wa n k e l

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engine. The combination of cost, durability,emissions, and fuel consumption of the Wankeldoes not appear to be sufficiently competitivewith that of a comparably performing recipro-cating engine. However, a variety of companiesare continuing experimentation on Wankels.

Diesel Engines

The diesel is a form of stratified-charge inter-nal combustion engine that uses the heat of com-pression for the ignition of distillate fuel. Fueland air are not premixed outside the cylinder asin carbureted gasoline engines; instead, air isdrawn into the cylinder through an unthrottledintake manifold and compressed. Fuel is sepa-rately injected near the top of the piston’s com-pression stroke and burns with the air already inthe cylinder. Ignition from spark plugs is not re-quired but is being considered for advanced en-

gines as a means of obtaining more accuratetiming of the ignition point.

Diesel engine combustion systems are nor-mally divided into two categories—direct injec-tion, and precombustion or indirect injection.The direct-injection engine has a single combus-tion chamber, usually formed in the pistoncrown. Fuel is injected directly into the spaceabove the piston. The injection process is con-sidered a critical component of the direct-injec-tion system since it must optimize fuel atom-ization and penetration into the air in the com-bustion chamber. Air utilization and engine per-

formance are improved by creating air swirl inthe combustion chamber. This is accomplishedby using directional intake ports and by propershaping of the piston crown. Combustion be-gins before the piston reaches the top of thecompression stroke (top dead center) and causesrelatively high gas temperature and pressurerises.

The design of the indirect-injection diesel in-cludes a prechamber, which connects to themain chamber by means of an orifice. All of thefuel is injected into the prechamber. Two types

of prechamber designs—quiescent and swirl—are in automotive use. The quiescent indirect-injection engines are designed for prechamber-to-total-combustion-chamber volume ratios of 1to 4. (Combustion chamber volume is measuredwith the piston at the top dead center. )

The swirl chamber employs a larger volumeratio (up to one-half) and the prechamber ischaracterized by a spherical or near-sphericaldesign. The throat is arranged to permit a fastair swirl or vortex to be formed in the precham-ber, thus promoting rapid burning of the entirecharge. Heat release rates are lower with thisdesign and rates of pressure rise are reduced,lowering noise and structural requirements.

Traditionally, passenger car diesel engineshave demonstrated advantages in fuel economy.However, these same vehicles have sufferedfrom excessive weight, poor cold-starting abil-ity, high cost, odor, smoke, need for frequentoil changes, poor acceleration, high noise, andhigh emissions of particulate and nitrogen ox-ides. Research during the past few years hasconcentrated on trying to find ways of elimi-nating these disadvantages.

Fuel Economy

Direct-injection diesels generally give about 5to 10 percent better fuel economy than the indi-rect-injection types. However, at the presentstate of combustion technology, indirect-injec-tion diesels are required for passenger car en-gines in order to reduce loads on the rods andcrank, allow high RPM, and improve starting.

The fuel-econom y advantage of a diesel overa comparable gasoline engine varies accordingto the operating mode. In steady, high-speedoperation on the open road, the diesel has only asmall advantage. In city traffic the efficiency of

the diesel may be as much as 40 percent greaterthan the gasoline engine. NHTSA estimates thatfor average driving conditions, the diesel offersa 25-percen t fue l -econom y a d v a n ta g e o n amiles-per-gallon basis.15 A part of this advan-tage stems from the fact that diesel fuel containsabout 10 percent more energy per gallon thangasoline. Thus, on a “per-barrel-of-crude-oil”basis, the diesel engine is about 15 percent moreefficient than a gasoline engine. Features—suchas valve selectors, electronic fuel metering, andturbocharging—could be added to improve thespecific fuel consumption of gasoline engines,

but some of these features (e.g. turbocharging)could also be added to diesels and allow them to

ISspecific fuel consumption is a measure of the efficiency Of anengine, expressed in pounds of fuel consumed per horsepower-hour (lb/ hp-hr).

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Ch 10—Technology q 323

retain their relative advantage. On the whole,the diesel—due to its highertie—would remain more fuelcomparable gasoline engine.

Durability

compression ra-efficient than a

Heavy truck engines achieve excellent dura-bility (e.g., 500,000 miles before overhaul) by acombination of conservative design, best possi-ble materials and components, heavy construc-tion, careful maintenance, and very consistentand favorable operating conditions. Also, theyoperate a t re la tively low compression ra tioscompared to the lightweight, high-speed passen-ger car diesel engines (i. e., 13.5 to 18 versus 21to 23.5). Average U.S. large gasoline engineslast well over 100,000 miles, but small enginesand imports tend to require overhaul appre-ciably earlier and to be much more variable inthis regard.

Popular opinion, encouraged in part by opti-mistic manufacturers, tends to ascribe to apassenger car diesel all of the virtues that arefound in truck and industrial engines, However,this is not necessarily true.

The recently introduced passenger car diesels(GM and VW) are conversions to diesel from aproduction gasoline engine. “Simple conver-s ion” of the GM 350 CID gasoline engine todiesel required replacement of the cast ironcrankshaft with a forged version employing

larger bearings, but durabilit y is still a seriousconcern. The only inherent durability factorfavoring a “converted” diesel is that the incom-ing charge of air that is compressed prior to igni-tion has no fuel in it and, therefore, does notwash the thin film of lubricant from the cylinderwalls. Also, corrosiveness of the exhaust andcrankcase gases may well be different, but notnecessarily better.

As a result, the durability of the “converted”diesels (GM and VW) could be less than theirbasic gasoline engine counterparts init ia lly .However, their durabili ty will probably beraised to the level required for public accept-ance. Also, from the public’s point of view,engine durability is frequently judged on acces-sories rather than fundamental factors affectingthe combustion process. Improvements in theseaccessory features depend upon the manufac-

turer’s cost estimates and assessment of marketpotential, rather than technological feasibility.

Weight

“Converted” diesel engines weigh more thanthe engine from which they are derived (111pounds more in the case of the Oldsmobile 35oCID design). Future plans for weight saving in

conventional engines by using thinner walledcastings wiIl not be possible for the diesel ver-sion. Thus, future savings of 5 to 15 percent inthe total engine weight must be given up fordiesels. In addition, there are vehicle weight in-creases associated with the diesel; these includedual batteries, and increased cooling capability.

Emissions

Passenger cars powered by modern dieselengines meet all HC and CO emissions stand-ards without after-treatment. NO X emiss ions ,

however, can present problems, depending onthe stringency of the standards. Two nonregu-lated pollutants—particulates and aldehydes—also are found in diesel exhaust in much greaterconcentrations than in spark-ignition engine ex-haust.

Formation of nitric oxide is dependent on theduration and temperature of the combustionprocess. Reducing peak cycle temperatures dur-ing the diesel’s combustion phase will reduce theN O X levels. Current design concepts that reduceN OX formation include reduced compression

ratio, fuel injection modifications, water injec-tion, and exhaust gas recirculation. The use of EGR has some disadvantages. The recirculationof exhaust gases through the cylinders also recir-culates particulate matter and thereby increasesengine wear. The EGR also tends to cause an in-crease in hydrocarbons.

It appears that diesel engines perform betterthan gasoline-powered engines in terms of degradation of emissions of the presently regu-lated pollutants. In tests of up to 80,000 miles,the rate of increase of emissions from dieselengines has been shown to be 2 to 3 times lowerthan those of a comparable gasoline-poweredengine.]’ However, diesels may encounter prob-lems with pollutants that are now unregulated.

l ,p~iv~t~ ~O~munic a t ion by con t rac to r wi th Dr . Hergenrath,

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

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EPA is conducting research on the potential car-cinogenic properties of the particulate andaldehydes in diesel exhaust. Preliminary tests in-dicate that the particulate are mutagenic. Fur-ther tests to determine if, and to what degree,diesel exhaust is carcinogenic are in progress. ”

In summary, it may be difficult for dieselengines, especially large-displacement engines,

to meet the 1981 Federal NO X standard of 1.0gram per mile or the California standard of 0.4gram per mile. A further difficulty is meetingthe particulate emissions standard recently pro-posed by EPA. However, small diesels havedemonstrated the ability to meet both these re-quirements. The interest in diesels by foreignand domestic manufacturers indicates someconfidence that future diesels will have satisfac-tory emission characteristics and offer fuel sav-ings over the gasoline engine.

Cold Starting

Most high-speed diesels currently used inautomobiles require starting aids to preheat theair in the precombustion chamber. Currentdiesel designs combat cold weather starting dif-ficulties by several means: designing passengercar diesels for a higher compression ratio thanlarge truck engines; using glow plugs to preheatthe air; using block heaters; and adjusting prop-erties of the diesel fuel.

The minimum compression ra tio of dieselengines depends in part on the cetane number of the fuel used. Swirl prechamber design is usual-ly used for high-compression, high-speed, auto-mobile engines.

From a fuel-economy standpoint, the opti-mum compression ratio for diesel engines isaround 12 to 14 to 1; piston ring friction be-comes more important than increased cycle effi-ciency above this range. Passenger car enginessuffer from this loss in efficiency, plus decreaseddurability and greater noise, in order to meetcold-starting and high RPM requirements.

Noise

Diesel-powered vehicles produce noticeablyhigher noise levels during idle than carburetedvehicles. At road speed, tire noise is predomi-

I -Teleph LJne ‘C)nversdtl(ln with Richarcl Brlcelanci, U. S. Env lr~~n-

menta] Prt>tectlon Agency, Apr. 11, 1978.

nant. In general, the noise transmitted by thediesel engine to the passenger compartment canbe attenuated through the use of proper acous-tical materials.

Time Frame

Presently announced plans for diesel enginepenetration of the U.S. market include the fol-lowing:

GM introduced a 350-CID diesel for theOldsmobile, for the Cadillac Seville, andfor some light trucks in 1978; GM may sup-ply diesels for a greater portion of its fleetlater.

VW diesel Rabbits and Dashers have beenavailable in the United States since modelyear 1977. The Mercedes 240D, Mercedes300D, and Peugeot 504 diesel are alsoavailable.

I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e a b o v e c o m p a n i e s ,

various other European and Japanese firmsnow produce or are planning production of diesel passenger cars; any or all of thesecould be brought to the U.S. market. Thesecompanies include Opel (GM), Ford of England, British-Leyland Motor Company,Chrysler-France, Nissan, Fiat, Citroen, andVolvo (using a VW engine).

1978 production rates for both GM andVW were planned to be 100,000-plus. GM’sa ct u al p r od u ct ion w as ap proxim ately65,000; the planned level of production for

1979 is 190,000 units.VW will probably allocate its diesel cars

worldwide. Both VW and GM will use consid-erable caution in testing consumer acceptanceand checking for unforeseen field problems.However, both companies can expand produc-tion quite rapidly, since the engines in questionare basically gasoline engines currently beingmade on exis ting , h igh-capacity p roduct ionlines. Peugeot and other small producers arelargely locked into existing specialized dieselproduction lines of low or modest capacity. The

need to build new plants will seriously constrainentry into the field and / or expansion by manyof the potential diesel-engine passenger car sup-pliers.

The technology of passenger car diesels willhave a significant effect on their acceptance, as

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Ch.. 10—Technology q325

well as on their achieved fuel economy. Otherproblems with diesels so far have included partsavailability, repair infrastructure, and unfamil-iarity on the part of do-it-yourself mechanics.

Investment and Costs

Depending on the extent of retooling neces-sary, the capital cost necessary to convert a

spark-ignition engine assembly plant to the pro-duction of diesels could range from $30 millionto $150 million for a 400,000-unit capacity line.Assuming annual new car sales to be 11.8 mil-lion in 1985 with 10-percent diesel penetration,total capital expenditures could range from $90million to $440 million.

The added cost (price premium) of diesel carsand multipurpose vehicles in 1977 ranged fromabout $195 to $2,200. The GM premium was$740 or $850, depending on the engine it re-placed. A major portion of the additional cost

of the diesel is for the fuel injection system. Thelow VW price differential of $195 is somewhatmisleading, since their gasoline engine has fuelinjection, whereas the GM gasoline counterpartdoes not.

In addition to the direct-injection and in-direct-injection engines whose differences havebeen discussed, several other types of diesels arein use or under development. The most commonof these is the two-stroke diesel engine. This ver-sion is lighter than a comparable four-strokeengine, but is generally slightly lower in fueleconomy and emits more pollutants. It is quite

competitive in heavy trucks and bus operations,but probably would not be competitive in apassenger car application.

A form of diesel that was recently developedfor a Brit ish tank engine employs what areessentially two Wankel engines in series. Thefirst partially compresses the incoming charge of air, and the second completes the compressionand handles the combustion. Other promisingvariations in diesel technology, particularly theadiabatic diesel (and additions to it such as tur-bocompounding and bottoming cycle) are dis-

cussed later in this chapter.

Drivetrain

A ma jo r f a c to r in achieving better fueleconomy is the ability to operate an engine at

the combinations of throttle position and RPMwhere the lowest possible values of specific fuelconsumption can be achieved. This is approx-imated by changing transmission gear ratiosunder varying conditions of vehicle accelerationand speed. In the case of an automatic transmis-sion, the torque converter smooths the transi-tion between gear ratios and supplies increasedtorque to the wheels at low engine speeds, butwith some loss of power.

Typical power losses in the automatic trans-mission, drive line, differential, and rear axlefor a full-size car vary with speed, approximate-ly as shown in table 139. Only 3 to 4 percent of these losses are in the axle, differential, anddrive line. Improvements in this area are gener-ally limited to greater precision in manufactur-ing processes and improvements in lubrication.

Table 139.—Drivetrain Losses

Drivetrain loss

Total wheelSpeed (mph) horsepower Hp 0/0

20. . . . . . . . . . 5.0 1.24 2540. . . . . . . . . . 14.4 3.17 2260. . . . . . . . . . 31.7 5.09 1680. . . . . . . . . . 60.0 7.99 13

SOURCE Environmental Protect Ion Agency Factors A ffecf[ng Fue/ Economy,May 1976

Transmissions, like engines, have a variety of basic types. These may be categorized as hydro-

kinetics (torque converter), standard gear change(“stick shift”), hydrostatic (e.g., Orshansky orSunstrand Responder), traction (e.g., GM Tor-ic, Tracer, or Forster), variable sheave (e. g.,“Vee” belt), clutched gear sets, and oscillatory.Each of these transmission types has a variety of possible configurations—for example, the hy-drokinetics transmission is currently availablewith three, four, or five elements, torque multi-plications from 2:1 to 6:1, all fixed or somemovable vanes, and lockup features. Many of these transmissions are used in combinationwith each other and with associated clutches,

dual path schemes, and retarders. For example,the conventional passenger car “automatic” usesa torque converter plus clutched gear sets. Con-trol systems include mechanical, hydraulic, andelectronic types. Improved automatics with alockup clu tch , t igh te r to le rance to rque con-

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verter, and a wide ratio, four-speed gear set areconsidered by the auto industry to be the mostlikely candidates for providing the desired near-term improvements in efficiency. Because of their better internal efficiency, the lockup fea-ture and gear ra tios that optimize the en-gine/ vehicle match, fuel-economy improve-ments up to 18-plus percent over a present day3-speed automatic have been obtained in experi-

mental vehicles. (table 140).

Table 140.—Hydrokinetic TransmissionImprovements

PercentTransmission type improvement3-speed automatic with low slip torque

converter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-33-speed wide ratio automatic. . . . . . . . . . . 3-63-speed automat ic with TCLU’ . . . . . . . . . 3-63-speed wide ratio automatic with TCLU . 8-134-speed automatic with TCLU ... , , . . . . . 8-134-speed wide ratio automatic with TCLU . 8-18

A typical, present-day passenger car auto-mat ic con ta ins a th ree -e lement , fixed-vanetorque converter of about 2 to 1 multiplicationand a three-speed planetary gearbox with hy-draulic control. Efficiency of the torque con-verter ranges from zero at stall to 91 percent;most driving occurs in the 80 to 90 percentregion. Typical efficiencies of the various trans-

mission types (table 141) show there is interestin the efficiency of the newer traction, sheave,and oscillatory types —as well as in their con-tinuously variable feature.

Other less obvious (but still worthwhile) im-provements which will be made in conventionalautomatic transmissions include reduced clear-ance in the torque converter, lower viscosity oil,reduced band and clutch drag, and reduced oilpump power.

Ford is planning to introduce a four-speedautomatic transmission in the early 1980’s. Thecapital costs involved in converting to a four-speed transmission will be an added financialburden to the auto manufacturers, but will notbe as serious as engine changes.

Capita l requirements for producing three-and four-speed automatic transmissions withtorque converter lockup (TCLU) features in a500,000-unit facility are estimated by industryto be:

q three-speed automatic with TCLU—$5 mil-lion to $10 million, and

q four-speed automatic with TCLU—$150

million to $200 million.18

Both of these values are believed to be basedon making the changes with minimal disturb-ance of existing production (which typicallyoperates on a three-shift basis). The conversionto the three-speed TCLU would consist of minorchanges to the existing plant; however, thechange to four-speed TCLU would probably re-quire installation of an almost parallel facilitybeside the existing plant. (A totally new plantwould cost on the order of $35o million. ) Totalcapacity (and/ or p rodu ctivity) of such a facility

would probably be increased significantly.

Table 141 .—Current and Potential Transmission Efficiencies

Transmission element Efficiency’

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Accessories and Accessory Drives

Power-driven systems (fan, water pump,alternator, oil pump) and options such as air-conditioning have traditionally consumed a sig-nificant amount of engine power, as shown infigure 60. Large percentage reductions in thepower required can be achieved for the fan andair-conditioner through the use of effective de-mand drive units. Most power-steering sys-tems have recently been converted to a type thatrequires very little power, except when turning.

Demand drive systems are already on themarket, but have received only limited accept-ance because of the prior unimportance of fueleconomy. Systems likely to see widespreadfuture use include:

q

q

q

electric motor drive for cooling fans;

air-conditioner drive and control systemthat fully disconnects except when cooling

is required (already widely used); andspeed-limiting drive for water pump, alter-nator, and oil pump.

Full utilization of these systems should pro-vide an overall fuel-economy improvement of about 4 percent.

Electronics

Electronic controls for fuel metering and igni-tion, as well as for a number of other vehicle

systems, have become a subject of importanceto the automotive and electronics industries.Emission control, fuel economy, safety, com-fort, convenience, and maintainability will allbenefit from the rapidly evolving technology.The l ist of present and potentia lly differenttypes of electronics systems for passenger carsnumbers over 50. The electronics industry esti-mates that at least 6 million units of electronicengine control systems will be used on 1981

‘Vt)emand drive units are components that allow their respectiveaccessories to “free-wheel” or to draw essentially no power w h e nthey are not needed. For example, a thermostatically controlledfan could probably be cut out of the system except during longp e r i o d s ot idling or pulllng heavy loads In ho t wea the r . T h isfeature IS already In use by some foreign manufacturers. All U, S.-manutactured cars with a ir-condltlorrlng have used a viscous drivefan which limits the maximum power absorbed as engine speed in-creases.


Figure 60.—Accessory Horsepower

q 3 2 7

Alternator

model cars. These include the ignition, fuelmetering, EGR, and valve selector functionshandled by a central microprocessor, Addi-

tional capabilities will be built into the micro-processors and, by 1985, as many as a dozendifferent systems may be controlled by the cen-tral unit. As confidence and interaction betweenthe two industries grows, the number of elec-t ron ics app l ica t ions wil l p robab ly increase.

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However, there is continued competition be-tween electronic and the more conventional me-chanical/ hyd raulic controls. Considerable im-provement in these latter systems could resultfrom the stimulus of such competition, possiblyreducing the magnitude of the trend to elec-tronics,

Multiplexing or other sophisticated wiring

concepts may be considered as a subset of auto-motive electronics. Such schemes promise somereduction in vehicle assembly cost and in the useof copper, with the benefit of improved recycla-bility. It is probable that such systems will notbe introduced on a production basis until wellafter a central microprocessor comes into gen-eral use,

Aerodynamic Drag and Friction

The importance of the effects of rolling fric-tion and aerodynamic drag on required enginepower are shown in figure 61. Rolling friction isalmost entirely a result of energy loss due todeformation of the t ires as they contact theroadway. Rolling friction increases almost lin-early with speed. Radial tires can have up to 20percent less rolling resistance than bias-beltedtires and 40 percent less resistance than plainbias tires, producing a fuel-economy improve-ment of up to 3 percent. Higher inflation pres-sures also reduce rolling resistance, but requiresuspension changes and affect t ire-roadway

adhesion.Aerodynamic drag increases with speed much

more rapidly than does rolling resistance (i. e.,as the square of velocity). At 55 mph, it absorbsabout 40 percent of engine power. Drag is also adirect function of vehicle size and shape (morespecifically of frontal area and the drag coeffi-cient). Minimum frontal area is essentially fixedby the requirements of passenger compartmentsize plus the safety-related lateral crush dis-tance -. Automobile height is remarkably stand-ard; heights are within 2 inches for a Ford LTDand an Austin Mini or Honda Civic. Typicalfrontal areas for current U.S. passenger cars areshown in table 142.

Drag coefficients for present day productioncars range from about 0.50 to 0.325, averagingabout 0.45. An experimental low-drag model

Figure 61 .—Effect of Speed on PowerRequirements (Standard-size car)

6 0

50

40

30

20

10

Totalengine hp

Accessories

Drivetrain

20

SOURCE

30 40 50 60 70

Speed--mph

Jet Propulsion Laboratories, Shou/d We Have ANew Engtne~, An Automobile Power Systems Evaluation, August 1975

has reached about 0.16.20 A 25-percent reduc-tion in drag may be expected to improve fuel

economy over the composite driving cycle byabout 5 percent .21 Theoretically, fuel savingsassociated with drag reduction are on the orderof 10 to 15 percent over the driving cycle, withgreater savings at steady high speeds. Somereduction in drag can be achieved throughchanges in body styling, but perhaps at the ex-pense of reduced volume-efficiency compared topresent “boxy” body designs. Further reductionof drag could be accomplished by elimination orredesign of features such as outside mirrors, raingutters, roll-down windows, and wheel covers.

z~rhe Pinlnfarina test model shown in the photograph, and theMercedes C 111 / 3 have demonstrated a drag coefficient of .16.

21 Jet propulsion Laboratov, California Institute of Technology,

A Study o) Autornotiz~e Aerodynamic Drag, pr epar ed for U.S.Department of Transportation, Office of the Secretary r ReportNo, DOT-TSC-OST-75-28 (Pasad ena, Calif.: Jet Propulsion Lab),September 1%’5.

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Aerodynamic body model by PinninfarinaPhoto Credf I A u tomo tJve PJe as

Table 142. —Frontal Area for Typical Passenger Cars

Curb weight Frontal area(pounds) (square feet)

Subcompact . . . . . 2,500 17.5

Compact . . . . . . . . 3,200 19.0

Standard . . . . . . . . 4,400 21.5Luxury . . . . . . . . . . 5,300 22.5

Safety Technology

There are many technological approaches tovehicles and roadways that can be applied toboth crash severity reduction and crash avoid-ance. The technologies discussed in this section(near-term) are those which are likely to be im-plemented by 1985.

Vehicles

The U.S. Department of Transportation re-cently issued a safety plan in which proposedrevisions of existing standards and new areas of rulemaking were identified. Table 143 showsthose standards applicable to the 1985 t i m eperiod.

All of these proposed requirements have beenunder consideration for years and should not re-quire any major new technological achieve-ments. The most significant feature is the exten-sion of passenger car standards to light trucksand multipurpose vehicles. Other importantrevisions are in upgrading the quality of seatb e l t s (F MVS S 208), u p g r a d i n g s i d e d o o r

strength (FMVSS 214), improving rear vision(FMVSS 111), and improving direct fields of view (new standard). However, the major pieceof safety equipment to be added in the near-termis the passive restraint system (FMVSS 208), re-quired in the 1982 model year for large cars andfor all cars by the 1984 model year.

The ongoing evaluation of the safety stand-ards should provide important information onthe regulatory process and on technologies forthe future .22 This evaluation focuses on whethervehicles are performing in accordance with thestandards and whether the standards, as writ-

ten, are actually addressing the probIem forwhich they were intended.

‘2 Discussion with U.S. Department of Transportatl~Jn, Oftice otPro~ram Evaluation, April 1978.

41.(17 I () - 7 i - .2’?

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Table 143.—Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, Near-Term ImprovementsUnder Consideration for Passenger Vehicles

Inc lusion of Upgrading ofCurrent standards Iight trucks’ standard

FMVSS No. 201 —Occupant Protection in Interiorimpact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 2034—impact Protection for theDriver from the Steering Control Systems . . . . .

FMVSS No. 204—Steering Control RearwardDisplacement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FMVSS No. 208—Occupant Crash Protection. . . .FMVSS No. 213—Child Restraint Systems . . . . . .FMVSS No. 214—Side Door Strength. . . . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 101 —Control Location, Identification,

and Illumination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 105—Hydraulic Service Brake,

Emergency Brake, and Parking Brake Systems.FMVSS No. 108—Lamps, Reflective Devices, and

Associated Equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 109—New Pneumatic Tires. . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 11 1—Rearview Mirrors. . . . . . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 114—Theft Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . .FMVSS No. 115—Vehicle Identification. . . . . . . . .

New proposed standards’Exterior protrusions, (minimize)Truck Rear Underride Guard (heavy trucks)Low Tire Pressure WarningDirect Fields of ViewHandling and Stability performancerequirements

Brake System InspectabilitySpeedometers/Odometers (limit speed indication)

xx

xx

xxxx

xx

xx

XXc

XXC

(d)

xxx

x

xX b

xx

x

xxxxx

Register 43. pp 11 lCO1 1107-

Restraint Systems

The air cushion restraint system (ACRS), orair bag, was first conceived of in the 1950’s andthe basic principles are unchanged today. A sen-sor mechanism, activated by a crash (usually abarrier-equivalent crash of 12 mph or greater)activates an inflator (either compressed gas or achemical gas generator). This fills a nylon bag inthe area in front of the driver and front-seatpassengers. The driver bag is housed in the

steering wheel hub. The passenger bag is in thearea typically used for a glove compartment(figure 62).

Technically, the system is extremely reliable.Operationally, it provides good protection in

front-end collisions, which account for morethan 50 percent of vehicle occupant fatalities.The probability of inadvertent inflation of theACRS is virtually nil; experiments have demon-strated that if it does occur, no real problems,such as loss of control of the vehicle, are likelyto occur.23 It is possible to utilize air bag tech-nology for protection of other than front-seatvehicle occupants, although that is clearly themost effective use of the system.

Safety belts come in a variety of configura-tions—lap belts, three-point lap/ torso belts,torso belt with knee bolster, and the four-point

“Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Auto-mobile Crash Protection, Report No. 95-481, Oct. 7, 1977.

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Ch. 10— Technology q 331

Figure 62.—Schematic of Air-Cushioned Restraint System

Drivercushionandinflatorassembly

II

I

for passengers

SOURCE Allstate Insurance Company, Autornotwe Air Bags C?uesf/ons and Answers, June 1977

lap/ shoulder harness. Several effectiveness en-hancement features are also possible. These in-clude pretensioning devices, energy-absorbingsystems, inflatable belts, and force-limitingbelts. Also there has been a recent surge of in-terest in passive belts, which automatically gointo place after the occupant is seated.

Three-point safety belts provide a leveI of protection almostACRS. In general,rent air bag alone

or side collisions.

equivalent to that of thethey are better than the cur-in multiple impact, rollover,

The ACRS with the lap beltoffers better high-speed protection. (See table144. ) However, there is still. a possibility thatmany individuals will disconnect the passivebelts unless they are made to be very com-fortable.

The air bag system is considerably more ex-pensive than the simple seat belt system. Esti-mates of the cost difference range from $112 to$235. The passive belt system is estimated tocost $25 more than the conventional three-pointsystem. 24

Highways

Improvements in highway features that couldreduce the inc idence o r sever i ty o f t ra f f iccrashes are shown in table 145, Most of thedevices or design techniques have been devel-

oped, but have not been universally applied.Skid resistance requires more research since itinvolves trade-offs with tire noise, tire wear,pavement cost, and durability.

241bid.

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Table 144.—Occupant Crash Protection System Effectiveness Estimates’

Passive beltLap and Air cushion and knee

Lapbelt shoulder belt Air cushion and Iapbelt bolster Knee bolster

A IS injury level:1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.15 0.30 0 0.15 0.20 0.052 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 .57 .22 .33 .40 .103 .30 .59 .30 .45 .45 .154-6 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : .40 .60 .40 .65 .50 .15

aEffe~t ,vene~~ ~h~~n ,s the fraction of the vehicle occupants not lnj ured at the specl fled Injury level who would be Injured without the use of the restral nt sYstemSOURCE Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Aufornoblle Crash Protectlorr, Report No 95.481. Oct 7, 1977

Table 145.—Technical Features for Highway Safety

1. Impact absorbing roadside safety devices.2. Skid resistance.3. Breakaway sign and lighting supports.4. Guardrail.5. Bridge rails and parapets.6. Bridge widening.7. Shoulders.8. Wrong-way entry avoidance techniques.9. Roadway lighting.

10. Traffic channelizaiton.11. Roadway alinement and gradient.12. Clear roadside recovery area.13, Median barriers.14. intersection sight distance.15. Railroad highway grade-crossing protection.16. Pavement marking and delineators.

SOURCE Abbreviated from the countermeasures examined In the Nat(ona/Highway Safety Needs F?eport, U.S Department of Transportation,Aprtl 1976

Recycling

The recovery of motor vehicle scrap metal is arelatively well-established industry. Wreckingyards and scrap processors recycle about 80 per-cent of junked motor vehicles. The wreckerremoves salvageable parts for resale and thescrap processor extracts the ferrous material inas pure a form as possible—usually well belowthat of industrial ferrous scrap. Shredding is thefavored process and produces the highest purity

product. It is also a high-volume, capital-inten-sive process with only about 100 shredder unitsin operation in this country.

As the content of plastics and nonferrousmetals in cars increases, separation problemswill become more difficult and the scrap will

become slightly less valuable. Materials selec-tion and design features could help to alleviatethis problem but presently, there is little incen-tive to do so.

Tires are a major recycling problem, particu-larly the steel-belted variety. The following ap-proaches are in various stages of development,but none appears yet to be a clearly economicalsolution:

q burning to produce thermal energy;

cryogenic, shred ding, or other processes to

recover the rubber for subsequent use (e. g.,as an asphalt extender);

q conversion to carbon black, and

q processing to produce a form of syntheticliquid fuel.

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AUTOMOBILE TECHNOLOGY BEYOND 1985

In the period from 1985 to 2000, it is expectedthat technological development will proceedalong three lines. First will be efforts to developand commercialize advanced engines capable of operating at much higher efficiency than the 25percent typical of the best engines of today.25 A

four-passenger vehicle equipped with such apropulsion system could have a operational fueleconomy of 60 mpg or more.26 A second line of development will be improvement of otherautomobile components to provide even greaterfuel economy. It is anticipated that efforts willconcentrate on continuously variable transmis-sions, low-friction tires, and improved aerody-namics. The need for, and emphasis on, moreefficient vehicles will be partly determined bysuccess in a third area of development—alter-nate energy sources. It is expected that the tech-nology to produce fuels from sources other than

petroleum and to use electrical energy couldreach a high state of refinement. If so, the pres-sure for greater automotive fuel economy wouldbe correspondingly less. This section of the re-port examines some of these potential advancesin auto and fuel technology and assesses the out-look and the problems associated with their de-velopment and use.

Propulsion Systems

New engines or power sources that are under

development for automotive applications in-clude: Brayton (or gas turbine); Stirling; diesel:Otto- diesel hybrid; adiabatic diesel; stratifiedcharge; various rotaries ( including Wankel);Rankine; battery; fuel cell; a n d o th e r e n e rg ystorage devices, such as flywheel and thermalsink.

It is also possible to add “upstream” systemssuch as superchargers, turbochargers, Comprex“superchargers, ” and regenerators (heat ex-

changers ). Also a great variety of fuels from dif -ferent sources could be used. They include gaso-line, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, liquefiednatural gas, petroleum natural gas, hydrogen,alcohol, ammonia, ether, and hydrazine. Final-ly, compounding, o r c o m b i n i n g t w o o r m o r e

different engine types, adds new possibilities.

The list of concepts which have been Formu-lated is extremely ions, but it is unlikely thatmore than a few will make their way into pas-senger-car use by 2000. A qualitative evaluationof the relative merits of the basic types of en-gines in terms of their key characteristics i s

given in figure 63.

Research and development programs for ad-vanced heat engines are being conducted byboth Government and industry. The Depart-ment of Energy, acting under the Energy Reor-ganization Act of 1974 and the Federal Non-Nuclear Energy Research and Development Actof 1974, has been pursuing the development of the gas turbine and Stirling engines for passen-ger-car application. More recent legislation, theAutomotive Propulsion Research and Develop-ment Act of 1978, directs DOE to support re-search and development t that would lead to in-troduction of alternate automobile propulsionsystems with in the next decade. The Act alsocalls for dissemination of technical informationon advanced engines. The intent of the Act is tosupplement the research and development ef-forts of private industry and to encourage andfacilitate competition in developing alternateengines. Although little has yet been accom-plished under the Act, it does provide the basisfor unifying and focusing the Government ef-forts in assisting R&D on alternate automotivepropulsion systems.

Stirling Engines

The Stirling engine converts heat energy fromthe burn ing a i r / fue l mixture to m echan ica lenergy through the alternative compression and

expansion of a confined working fluid . Theworking fluid (normally a small quantity of high-pressure hydrogen or helium) is cooledduring the compression stage and heated duringthe expansion stage. Residual heat energy isrecycled through a heat exchanger that stores a

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Figure 63.—Characteristics of Automotive Propulsion Systems’

Fuelcon-

sumption Size andPowerplant economy Emissions cost weight

q

State ofdevelop- Fuel

ment versatility

‘ Passenger car application.bD!fferent fuel cells use different fuels, but a fuel cell will onlv use the fuel for which it was designed.

c Depends on extent of emissions from electric-generating plant and the Importance of point ve&.us dispersed emmonsdCa”n use any fuel used to generate electricity. -

e Typically, an internal combustion engine plus battery or flywheel.f Can use any fuel used to generate electricity, and those usable in the secondary

SOURCE” SRI, p. V-44, and OTA.

large portion of the heat of the working fluid q

after expansion and returns it to the workingfluid after compression.

A sequence of four events occurs during a full .

work cycle of the engine:The working fluid is transferred from thehot space through the heater, regenerator,and cooler to the cold space. This occurswith a re la tively small change in tota lworking space volume. q

power plant.

A compression process occurs when theworking fluid is located primarily withinthe cold space and the adjacent cooler.

The working fluid is transferred from the

cold space through the cooler, regenerator,and heater to the hot space, with a relative-ly small change in tota l working spacevolume.

The working fluid expands when it is

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located primarily within the hot space andthe adjacent heater.

The expansion and compression spaces arephased so that the working fluid is located in thehot space of the engine as total working spacevolume increases. As total working volume de-creases, the working fluid is found mainly in thecold space of the engine. The four processes arerepeated for each revolution of the crankshaft.

Ch. 10—Technology

The motions of the mechanism and the gascan best be understood by examining the

q 3 3 5

flowtwo-

piston analogous mechanism and its volumecrank angle diagram shown in figure 64. Thisconfiguration is not currently used as a Stirlingengine, but is useful in illustrating the principle.A schematic drawing of the double-acting,swash plate, piston-type Stirling (which is anoperating engine) is shown in figure 65.

Figure 64.—Principle of the Stirling Engine

Q ~ Regenerator Q

Expansionspace v,

Fixedcrank cente

Compressionspace VC

Connecting linkage

SOURCE SRI

Figure 65.—Stirling Engine With Swash Plate

Coolant to

fluid

SOURCE” SydecEEA, p II-21

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The other common type of Stir l ing has arhombic-drive, inline piston displacer configu-ration. However, Wankel expanders, valvedversions, and similar variants are under study.

The Stirling engine shows significant poten-tial when compared to the conventional internalcombustion engine. It has lower noise levelsbecause of the continuous burning process and

reduced emissions. The Stirling can burn a vari-ety of fuels. Its operation is smooth and withoutvibration. Finally, the engine has cycle effi-ciencies approaching 40 percent.

The problems in the development of the Stir-ling are all technical or cost-related, They maynever be overcome on a cost-competitive basis.These problems include:

high temperatures with attendant problemsof materials, sealing, thermal cycling, etc.;

high-pressure areas and the basic techno-logical difficulties concerning the sealing sothat gas does not leak out of the engine orinto other parts of the system (efficiencyimproves with system pressure and unitshave been run at well over 3,OOO psi);

cos t, co mple xity, and availabil i ty con-straints centering on the use of sophisti-cated electronic controls, ceramic compo-nents for the heat exchanger, and extensivestainless steel tubing required to withstandthe very high pressures and temperatures

inside the engine;uncertainty regarding the feasibility of pro-ducing many of the engine componentswhich are new and have never before beenmass-produced (the production processesof engine manufacturers and componentvendors would have to be refined beforecost-effective mass production could takeplace);

need for large, high-capacity radiators andthe severe loss in efficiency when the heat isrejected to high ambient temperatures (e. g.,

1000

F or greater);complexity and low efficiency of the gasvolume control system and slow responseto changes in speed and load demand;

uncertainty regarding engine durability and

the feasibility of producing engines in dif-ferent sizes; and

. fuel economy actually attained to date forthe complete powerplant (with accessories)is about that of a conventional Otto-cycleengine.

Until recently, most experience with the Stir-

ling engine has been in the research laboratory.The only commercial application of the Stirlingcycle to date has been in a cryogenic machinefor producing liquid air. However, some devel-opment work has been done on potential appli-cation of the Stirling in heavy-duty trucks, andthere has been minor production for militaryhardware. Work on the feasibility of a four-cylinder 170 horsepower (hp) Stirling for auto-mobiles was conducted by Ford and the Depart-ment of Energy (DOE) under a licensing agree-ment with N.V. Phillips Gloeilampenfabriken of the Netherlands. Laboratory testing of the

engine was completed in 1976. The secondphase sought to improve engine durability andperformance in road tests, to determine poten-tial feasibility, to assess the potential for enginesize modification, and to initiate R&D workwith other firms. Table 146 shows some featuresof the Stirling engine compared with the base-line standard engine.

Ford recently completed a feasibility study,funded by DOE, involving the conceptual de-sign and evaluation of an 80 to 100 hp Stirlingengine for use in a passenger car of the 2,500- to

3,000-pound weight class. Subsequently, Fordannounced its withdrawal from the DOE Stir-ling engine program.

DOE is also funding Mechanical Technology,Inc., United Stirling of Sweden, and AM Gener-al Corporation in a joint effort to develop threegenerations of engines in the 55 to 130 hp range.The first portion of this work was to demon-strate a Stirling engine in an Opel Rekord. In-stallation was completed, and road testing wasbegun in the summer of 1978. Preliminary testresu l ts a re encourag ing . The S t i r l ing Ope l

equaled a diesel-powered Opel in fuel economyand easily met the future statutory emissionsstandards.

Even if all performances projections are real-ized and durability is demonstrated, the market

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percent efficiency in the 100 hp size range.27 It ismore difficult to achieve high efficiency in asmall gas turbine than in a large one; surfacefriction in a narrower flow path affects a greaterportion of the total air flow and clearances be-tween the moving parts and the housing accountfor a higher percentage of losses.

The power output of a single-shaft turbine de-

creases to nearly zero as engine speed drops by50 percent. Thus, this turbine must operate overa much narrower speed range than most otherengine types to maintain high efficiency. Thisrequires the use of a wide-range continuouslyvariable transmission (CVT) in order to matchthe narrow speed range of the engine to the vari-able speeds needed for operation of an automo-bile . Such transmissions are under develop-ment. The two-shaft configuration, or “free tur-bine” a llows use of the standard automatictransmission employed in existing automobiledesigns, since the second turbine is able to oper-

ate at speeds considerably different from thoseof the main shaft.

The technical and performance potential of the gas turbine is attractive for the followingreasons:

q

q

q

q

There is the potential for high thermal effi-ciency, and thus good fuel economy (al-though this has not been realized to date).

Gas turbines can be designed for a verywide range of gaseous or liquid fuels (multi-fuel capability).

The turbine exhaust has substantially lowerHC and CO emissions due to the morecomplete combustion associated with long-er burning duration at higher temperatures.Also there is considerable research activitydirected at achieving a “low NOX” burnerwh ic h sh o u ld me e t 0 .4 g ra m p e r mi leN OX—the original statutory standard andthe 1982 California requirement.

The turbine has low weight and smoothoperation, as well as a long life and reducedmaintenance costs.

In order to realize the potential for high ther-mal efficiency, the turbine inlet temperaturesneed to approach 2,5000 F. Thus, the hot parts

of the burner, ducting, nozzle ring, and turbinewheels require highly temperature-resistant ma-terials. These can be sheet, forged, or cast “su-per alloy s,” or ceramics. Ceramics would offerthe best temperature resistance, long life, andlower production costs if the technolog y couldbe perfected.

One of the main l imi ta t ions to ce ramic

materials is random undetectable defects in thecry sta l s t ru ctu re. As a r esu l t , c on se rv a t iv edesign practice requires use of stress levels of about one-quarter of those possible with a “per-fect” material. A breakthrough in understand-ing the fundamental properties of ceramics withregard to their uniformity and freedom fromrandom defects would enhance the gas turbine’scompetitive position.

Another problem with the ground vehicle tur-bine is the inability to achieve good fuel econ-omy under partial load conditions and in accel-

eration and deceleration modes. Efforts to in-crease the fuel economy of the turbine are beingmade through redesign of the combustion cham-ber, compressor, and turbine. Most of the tur-bine engines presently being road tested use twoshafts (the “free turbine”), fixed geometry com-bustors, and continuous fuel injection systems.In order to reduce fuel consumption when oper-ating at less than full torque requirements, ex-periments are being conducted with intermittentfuel injection that varies with vehicle speed andwith variable air-orifice geometry in the com-bustion chamber.

Gas turbines are not yet on the market, al-though both GM and Ford were close to offeringlarge turbines in trucks and buses several yearsago. The present GM turbine development pro-gram for both cars and trucks is quite active.However, Ford has essentially halted its truckturbine program. A consortium of AiResearch/ Mack/ KHD has also begun development of alarge-truck turbine and could be the first withcommercial sales.

The use of turbines in passenger cars is uncer-

tain in the near future, but breakthroughs in cer-amics could enhance their potential. The DOE/ Chrysler target date for a competit ive auto-mobile turbine is 1983. GM has an ongoing de-velopment program, but its time frame is un-known. It is possible that GM is further along in

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Ch. 10—Technology q 339

development than Chrysler/ DOE; GM is notrelying on ceramic materials at this time.

United Turbine A. B., a subdivision of Volvo,has developed a three-shaft turbine (the KIT)which it claims is competitive in fuel economywith its current ICE-powered automobile .28Volkswagen, Nissan, and Toyota are also activein turbine development.

Once turbine engines are fully developed,their costs could be attractive for the consumer,largely due to long life and reduced mainte-nance. Initial costs and fuel economy need to bebrought to a competitive level, however, andhigh-temperature materials at low cost are re-quired.

Diesels

The use of diesels through 1985 was discussedat length earlier in this chapter. As interest inpassenger car diesels grows, many other con-cepts for improving the engine will be explored

in greater depth. Most improvements will prob-ably occur after 1985. Some of these develop-ments are:

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

q

v a r ia b le c o mp re ss io n ra t io to imp ro v estarting and optimize operation over a widerange of conditions;

positive timing of ignition (e.g., via sparkplug);

throttling to reduce smoke;

modulated or pilot fuel injection to mini-mize need for ind irect injection and/ ormassive construction;

use of valve selector to cut out unneededcylinders;

various forms of capturing the waste ener-gy in the exhaust of a conventional diesel(e.g., Rankine bottoming cycle—a smallclosed-cycle steam turbine coupled to thecrankshaft—or Comprex “supercharging”);

innovative, very low-fuel-consumptionconcepts, s u c h a s t h e C u m m i n s / T ARADCOM a d ia b a t i c tu rb o c o mp o u n d

diesel; and

friction-reducing features such as an “airbearing” between piston and cylinder wall.

1’S, O. Kronogard, “Advances in Automotive Gas Turbines, ”Mechanical Eng~r~eerl)~g, October 1977, pp . 38-43.

In view of the abundance of technological op-tions, the relative emphasis on diesel versusgasoline engines may well hinge on the manu-facturers’ broad strategy considerations aboutthe merits of developing two kinds of engineswhen either one would do the job. At the sametime, diesel and gasoline engine technologies aretending to grow closer together (the TexacoTCCS concept and a “spark-timed” diesel con-

cept are almost identical) and could conceivablymerge. This potential merging has major com-petitive implications for the diesel engine in-dustry and for the automobile manufacturers.

The adiabatic turbocompound diesel mayprovide thermal effic iency comparable to orhigher than the Stirling in about the same timeframe. The Cum mins/ TARADCOM program isexploring various changes to the diesel; by 1979,a test engine incorporating these changes shouldproduce a thermal efficiency of 56 percent .29Thermal efficiency of up to 48 percent has

already been achieved but the developmentalengines, and even production versions, may bequite difficult to adapt to passenger car applica-tions.

The major gain in efficiency is obtained bycompletely removing any form of cooling of thepistons and combustion chamber and by in-sulating the engine against radiant heat loss.Thus, the interior cylinder wall temperature of the engine is extremely hot in operation (above2,000

0 F, compared to about 5000 F for a con-ventional diesel), and essentially all the wasteheat goes out the exhaust. This high-energy ex-haust stream is first used to drive a turbochargerand then to drive a power recovery turbine thatis coupled to the crankshaft. The Wright Cy-clone R3350 aircraft engine of the 1950’s (usingaviation gasoline) used this same turbocom-pound principle and achieved thermal efficien-cies of over 40 percent in commercial service. Itis conceivable that further compounding (e. g.,addition of a Rankine unit) could raise the over-all efficiency to greater than 60 percent.

The extreme temperatures of the power sec-tion require the use of ceramic pistons and un-

usual combinations of piston rings, cylinderwall, and lubricants. However, these problemsare being worked out. The basic engine, pluscompounding, could have 25 percent less vol-

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ume than a naturally aspirated engine but theamount of hot ducts and thermal insulationwould add appreciably to the effective enginevolume. The cost of early engines would beseveral times that of existing engines and even inhigh produ ction, costs would probably neverdrop below double. Also, it would take manyyears to arrive at a passenger car productionversion.

Fuel Cells

Fuel cells generate electricity from chemicalenergy through an electrochemical process.They have four primary ingredients: an elec-trolyte (conducive to ions such as hydrogen oroxygen); two electrodes per cell; a case for thecell or combinations of cells; and tanks for con-tainment of fuel and oxident (if needed). Manyfuel cells, especially those operating at or nearroom temperature require a cata lytic agent,often platinum, in very small amounts on the

electrode.Many combinations of different types of the

ingredients can be made into fuel cells. Some of the fuels used are hydrogen, methanol, hydra-zine, amm onia, metallic fuels (e.g., zinc/ air),and biological fuel. Some operate at a range of tempera tu res f rom room tempera tu re up to1,0000 Centigrade and higher.

Fuel cells have received most recent and wide-spread v is ib i l i ty by v i r tue o f the i r use insatellites to produce electrical power. The proc-ess is inherently much quieter, c leaner, and

more efficient than conventional power-gener-ating equipment. The higher efficiency capabili-ty is a result of the fact that the fuel cell does notinvo lve convers ion o f hea t to mechan ica lenergy, thus avoiding thermodynamic lowerlimits on efficiency.

Practical, cost-effective fuel cells are not yetavailable, and it is difficult to predict when suchsystems might be developed. Current costs of fuel cells are much higher than other practicalenergy conversion systems. Yet, the potential of fuel cells, both for stationary electric generation

and to power vehicles, should not be underesti-mated or overlooked. 30

WC Sand5tede, ed., from Electrocahdysis to Fuel Cc//s (Seattle:

Univers i ty o f Wash ing ton P ress fo r Battelle Seattle ResearchCenter, 1972).

Drivetrain and Tires

Ongoing improvements n transmission anddrivetrain-related equipment are expected to bein production by the mid-1980’s. A practicalCVT will require a much longer time frame and,in light of other improved transmissions, maybe limited in application.

In addition to the reduced rolling resistanceassociated with belted radial t ires and theweight savings possible from using a “compact”spare (or eliminating the spare through a run-flat system), another tire innovation holds con-siderable promise. This is a cast, all-plastic tirewith no cord or bead of any sort. One conceptuses a fu l ly c losed to rro ida l fo rm ( l ike r-tube) mounted on a two-piece wheel. Anotheruses an integral plastic tire and wheel. Stillanother uses a conventional tirewith a steel bead. Compared withthese concepts have the promise

simultaneously:q

q

q

q

q

equal durability with equaltraction,

50-percent weight reduction,

cross-sectioncurrent tires,of achieving

wet and dry

reduced hysteresis (rolling friction),

complete recyclability, and

lower first cost 31

However, the technical problems of noise,durability, heat buildup, etc., for these conceptsare much the same as those of conventional

tires.The captive nature of the tire industry, the

major shift that would be required in facilitiesand materials sources, the great reduction in re-quired labor, and related institutional problemsmay slow the development of the all-plastic tire.

Vehicle Design and Manufacture

Post-1985 vehicle design and manufacturingchanges could be motivated by several factors.

These include the need to reduce the weight of vehicles further for improved fuel economy, theneed to enhance the safety characteristics of vehicles, particularly in light of the reduction in

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size and weight of cars, and the need for moredurable, longer lasting vehicle structures thatare more corrosion-resistant. The limiting fac-tors may be the engineering and design tech-niques and the availability of high-strength,lightweight durable materials to accomplish allof these objectives simultaneously.

Research in this area thus far has shown some

promising results. For instance, smaller, lightervehicles need not have a safety disadvantage.The creative use of lightweight materials (suchas high-strength low-alloy steels, aluminum,co mp o si te s t ru ctu ra l p las t ics , a n d p la s ti cs ,foams, and integrated foam-filled structures)has been demonstrated in the design of light-weight, sturdy vehicles.

The primary difficulty in new materials appli-cations is in developing manufacturing proc-esses that are competitive with steel forging,iron casting, and stamping in terms of manpow-

er and time. Significant progress is being madewith aluminum stamping, bonding plastics tometals, and molding large shapes of plastic.Such advances will encourage the use of thesematerials.

Durability, Corrosion, and Recycling

Durability and corrosion resistance dependon the materials used, the quality of vehicularcomponents, and the ease of repairing or replac-ing those parts that are expected to w e a r . T h eplastic and aluminum parts will not rust, al-though the plastic may deteriorate over time,and aluminum will oxidize somewhat. Corro-sion of steel parts can be controlled to a greaterdegree than at present by modifying design tolimit the areas where salt and mud collect, byimproving metal coatings (paints), by use of galvanized (zinc-coated ) metals, and by improv-ing sealing materials (undercoating). Progress isbeing made in these areas.

It is relatively easy to design stronger, andhence more durable, automobile parts. How-ever, this generally entails added cost and in-

creased weight. An overall saving in materialsand in production energy might result. How-ever, the cost-effectiveness of this approach re-quires careful study. Increased durability couldlead to a fleet of older vehicles, made to earlierdesign standards, and possibly in poorer repair.

Recycling is now a well-established industry;its continuation and expansion depend more onwill and economics than on technology. The in-creased use of plastics will require more atten-tion to the recycling of these parts. Separationof plastics from metals will become increasinglydifficult. Sorting of plastics for recycling is analmost insurmountable problem; a cost-effec-tive solution will be difficult to find. Plasticsthat cannot be reclaimed pose a solid wasteproblem, since they do not decompose natural-ly.

Safety

There are a number of safety technology con-cepts in the automobile transportation systemrelating to vehicles, highways, and driver per-formance. Many of these concepts can be ap-plied to crash avoidance or crash severity reduc-tion, or to both in some cases. The following is alisting of some of these concepts:

improved vehicle structural engineering / design/ materials;

advanced restraint systems;

interior design concepts for safety;

antilock and radar brakes;

fuel systems and fuel tanks with reducedflammability;

vehicle control augmentation;

vehicle exteriors that minimize injury to

pedestrian and pedacycle riders; andmodal mix considerations (truck underrideguard, for example).

Vehicle crashworthiness has two underlyingobjectives —maintaining occupant compartmentintegrity in the crash, and controlling the ac-celerations of the vehicle and the occupantsthroughout the event. By controlling the ac-celeration and spreading it out over time, thepeak accelerations and overall level of accelera-tions on the vehicle occupants are reduced, De-signs that can achieve higher levels of crash-

worthiness require application of known basicdesign principles. Computer-aided finite e le-ment analysis in vehicle design offers the capa-bility for detailed examination of vehicle struc-tural response characteristics. Also, routine ap-plication of engineering principles applied to

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crashworthiness criteria could produce vehiclesof extremely high structural integrity.

Advanced restraint systems and interior de-sign considerations for safety are an integralpart of the occupant protection concept .32 Con-siderable progress has been made in these areasand more improvements are expected.

Exterior designs that can lessen injuries in col-lisions with pedestrians, cyclists, and motor-cyclists have not been fully explored yet. Oneapproach to this concept has been a soft front-end design which tends to soften the initial blowand guide a struck pedestrian onto the hood of the vehicle. The efficacy and applicability of these ideas need further study. Certain features,such as breakaway or hinged outside mirrorsand hinged hood ornaments, are already com-monplace on vehicles.

Brakes

Several concepts regarding improved brakesare under consideration for 1985 and beyond.These include antiskid brakes and radar brakes.

Antiskid brakes have been developed forpassenger cars. However, marketing of the earlysystems (which were developed without regula-tory pressure or other incentives) was not verysuccessful. Operating experience with such unitshas been quite satisfactory, despite early prob-lems with the more complex units used ontrucks. Technologically, such systems are quitefeasible, but users have not viewed the benefits

as being worth the added cost. A number of newantiskid braking concepts are under develop-ment. They could result in up to 10 percent lessstopping distance in many cases, and severaltimes that in a few severe conditions. More im-portantly , they essentia lly e liminate loss of directional control in emergency stops.

Since diesel engines have no engine vacuum,the Oldsmobile diesel uses a hydraulic boosterto power the brakes. The hydraulic boost con-sists of using the power-steering pump for thissecond function. When antiskid systems are

used, it probably will be preferable to use this

form of power assist (rather than vacuum) forspark-ignition engines as well as diesel becauseof the much smaller actuators required.

Radar-assisted brakes are also under develop-ment. Their purpose is to perceive an inevitablecollision event and respond faster than thehuman operator in applying the brakes. Thesystem is not necessarily designed to avoid colli-

sions, but to reduce the impact speed and thusthe severity of a crash. Minicars, Inc., hasdeveloped such a system in conjunction with itswork on the Research Safety Vehicle Program.They calculated a 60- to 90-percent reduction incollision energy at 50 mph compared withoperator-actuated brakes, using a perce ivedhazard distance of 80 feet. 33 However, there issome concern that the widespread use of radarequipment may present a microwave radiationhazard.

Fuel Systems

Over 17,000 f i res occur annua l ly in theUni ted S ta tes as a resu l t o f motor veh ic lecrashes .34 In 1975, there were 55,000 vehicles in-volved in fatal crashes; more than 1,200 fires oc-curred .35 The current FMVSS 301 standard onfuel system integrity considerably reduces theallowable fuel loss in 30 mph front, rear, andside collisions. The RSV program specifications,however, call for no fuel loss under much moresevere test conditions. The technology fo rsecure fuel systems is available. Bladder tanks,compartmentalized tanks, resealing tanks, foam

filler blocks, and the like have been used exten-sively in aircraft and racing cars to reduce firehazards. All of this technology is easily trans-ferable to passenger cars at some modest in-crease in cost.

Another approach to minimizing problemswith fires is to identify and eliminate the igni-tion source(s). An inertial switch is availablewhich shuts off the electrical system in a crash.The electrical system has long been suspected tobe a primary source of ignition in collision, fires.

‘zJohn D. States, “Static Passive Occupan t Restraint Systems,Without Airbags and Without Belts, Is It Possible?, ” Fifth Interna-

tional Congress on Automotive Safety-Proceedings, Cambridge,Mass., July 11-13, 1977, pp. 419-426.

33 Rudolf L impe rt , “M in ic ar s RSV Brake System, ” Fifth Interna-tional Congress on Automotive Safety-Proceedings, Cambridge,Mass, , July 11-13, 1977, pp. 773-802.JfJohn Hubbard, Virginia Kelley, Russell Shew, “Fuel-Fed Vehi

-

cle Fires, ” Trial, January 1978.MU , S, Depa r tmen t of Transportation, Fatal Accident %mrting

System, 197s Report,

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Ch. 10— Technology • 343

Program and Concept Cars

Concept cars have been used as a means of corporate advertising, exploring public interestsand tastes, and checking feasibility of new engi-neering and production concepts. More recent-ly, concept cars have been used to investigateand stimulate innovative technical approachesthat address national needs. The major auto

companies routinely build such vehicles; theprototypes from small auto companies and in-ventors attempting to break into the automotiveworld can be viewed in this same category.

This class of vehicles includes the Chryslergas turbine cars, the GM XP898 “all plastic” car,the Bricklin and DeLorean cars, the wide varietyof cars used to explain new engines and/ orfuels, e lectrics and hybrids and, f inally , theseries of safety cars. The safety car programstarted with the Liberty Mutual/ New York Statecar of the 1960’s. It progressed th rough the

NHTSA Experimental Safety Vehicle (ESV) Pro-gram of the early 1970’s to the present RSV(Research Safety Vehicle) Program, which at-tempts to integrate emission control and fuel-economy goals with the primary safety con-cepts.

As a parallel aspect of the ESV program, themajor auto companies built their own versionsof ESVs. These cars provided major improve-ments in meeting safety criteria, but retainedmuch of the conventional full-size passenger cardesign, materials, styling, and production fea-tures. The ESVs, designed and built by nonauto-motive developers, were not based on existingvehicles and had little in common with the con-ventional auto designs.

The current RSV program includes a very un-conventional car from Minicars, Inc., as well asthe Calspan/ Chrysler vehicle, which is based ona modified Lightweight production sedan. At thesame time, VW has developed a safety car ver-sion of their Rabbit model that achieves excel-lent fuel economy, emissions levels, and per-formance. The major U.S. auto manufacturers

have not publicized any in-house integratedsafety car efforts comparable to their earlierESVs.

The information gained from the present RSVand parallel activities will probably provideboth a basis for some of the future safety regula-

tion and a fund of data and experience that willbe extremely useful to the major auto produc-ers. As an example, the VW safety car, which isa modified version of the Rabbit, weighs about200 pounds more and is powered by a four-cyl-inder, turbocharged diesel. It obtains 60 m p g(composite), accelerates from O to 60 mph in lessthan 14 seconds, meets 1983 emissions stand-ards, and provides 40 mph barrier (and 30 mphpole) crash survivability without serious injury.It is claimed that this car could be in productionin 3 years.

Electric and Hybrid Vehicles

In the present environment of low-cost andplentiful gasoline, electric vehicles must beviewed as an alternative that is competitive inonly very limited applications or under condi-tions of Government subsidy. In view of the in-

evitable depletion of petroleum resources andthe continued problem of air pollution withpetroleum fuels, Federal encouragement andsubsidy of EVS is proceeding. The program hasthe dual objectives of conserving petroleum andassuring that the necessary technology and ex-perience are in place before the need becomesurgent, since EVS can derive their energy fromcoal-fired or nuclear-generating systems.

Many individual inventors, large corpora-tions, and major auto manufacturers have beenpursuing EV development programs, partly in

the hope of providing a viable, currently com-petitive vehicle, and partly to be ready earlierthan their competitors where EVs eventuallybecome economically competitive. Present EVtechnology generally provides vehicles of suchlimited performance that public acceptance hasbeen extremely low. For example, the only EVscommercially available are limited to about 35mph, speed drops drastically on minor grades,and performance is much poorer near the end of the battery charge. Also, there is insufficientenergy storage to include provisions for heater,defroster, air-conditioner, and similar features.

A typical electric-vehicle power train consistsof storage batteries, provision for rechargingfrom hou sehold or similar 110/ 220 volt sources,a controller to adjust speed and acceleration,and an electric motor that drives the road

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Experimental Vehicle Designs

Pholo Credit U S Department of Transportation

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wheels. The EV may also include regenerativebraking, as well as a load-leveling device such asa flywheel to increase vehicle range.

The EV concept extends to a number of vehicles including delivery vans, urban passen-ger cars, buses, agricultural equipment, indus-trial lift trucks, and golf carts. Current researchis focused on batteries, controls, and vehicles

for personal transportation and light-duty com-mercial use.

The extremely limited energy storage capabil-ity of present day battery systems has led to theconcept of combining a battery or similar ener-gy storage system with a combustion engine sys-tem. This combination is known as a h y b r i dpowerplant. Two hybrid concepts have beenpredominant—an internal combustion enginewith a battery system, and an internal combus-t ion engine with a f lywhee l energy-sto ragesystem.

Since the hybrid vehicle currently offers cer-ta in pe rformance characte r is t ics super io r toEVs, it may provide a more acceptable alter-native and may encourage the development andintroduction of more advanced electric-vehiclesystems. Flywheel and other energy storage sys-tems currently under development may provideboth electric and hybrid vehicles the perform-ance and economy needed to improve their pub-lic acceptance.

Benefits

The successful development of an electric- orhybrid-vehicle power system (i.e., battery andpower train technology) can provide a varietyof benefits in the future. To the extent that elec-tricity is generated from nonpetroleum sourcesand to th e extent that electric- and/ or hybrid-vehicle use replaces petroleum-vehicle use, theelectric vehicle offers a means for substantialsavings of petroleum.

Another benefit could be the virtual elimina-tion of air emissions in urban areas. This benefitneeds further examination because the emissions

would be shifted to the utility. The ultimate im-pact would depend on the plants’ locations aswell as emission characteristics. However, un-less emphasis is placed on vehicle safety, the in-creased use of small, lightweight vehicles mayhave an adverse effect on traffic safety.

Constraints

Consumer preferences may represent strongbarriers to early sales of urban EVs and hybrids.The average range of a current EV is only about50 miles, a major disadvantage for consumers.Although the hybrid vehicle does not sufferfrom the range limitations of the electric vehicle,it requires a more complex and expensive engine

p o we r t r a in d e s ig n a n d n e e d s two e n e rg ysources.

Few EVs are currently equipped with the pow-erful motors and associated controls needed tomatch the acceleration of ICE-powered vehicles.Electric-vehicle users must adjust to lowerspeeds and reduced performance. Hybrids arenot expected to perform much differently thanEVs in this regard.

Many or most of the amenities that are com-monplace in current ICE-powered vehicles arenot expected on EVs or hybrids. Such equip-

ment includes power steering, power brakes, ex-tra interior space, and air-conditioning. How-ever, in a serious energy shortage, this equip-ment would probably be discarded on ICE-pow-ered automobiles as well.

Systems for servicing EVs or hybrids do notexist yet. Parts availability, maintenance know-how, and repair availabilit y and costs are un-known.

State of the Art

In 1970, the Edison Electric Institute definedthe minimum desirable characteristics of electricvehicles for use by utility companies. (See table147. ) The purpose of the program was to en-courage the manufacture and test operation of asignificant number of special purpose electricvehicles.

The U.S. Postal Service is currently conduct-ing a comprehensive electric-vehicle program.During the project, a set of technical goals forelectric vehicles was developed. Except for the 4-year battery l ife , the technical goals of the

postal electric vehicles (table 148) have been metby approximately 380 vehicles. A number of battery and control system failures were experi-enced by these vehicles. Preliminary results in-dicate that improved vehicle acceleration is de-sirable.

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Table 147. —Desirable Minimum Characteristics— Electric Work Vehicle

SOURCE E A Campbell, Ana/ysis of On-Road E/ectrfc Vehlc/e Experience of 62 U S. Utl/l!les, SAE Paper 760074, 1976

SOURCE. D P Crane and J.R Broman, “United States Postal Service Electric Vehicle Program,” Fourtfr /rrternatlona/ E/ectrJcVehlc/e Syrnpo.wum, Dusseldorf, Germany, 1976

The Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Research,Development, and Demonstration Act of 1976(Public Law 94-413) included a provision to“demonstrate the economic and technologicalpracticability of electric and hybrid vehicles forpersonal and commercial use in urban areas andfo r a g r i c u l tu ra l a n d p e r so n a l u se in ru ra lareas . . .“ 36 The Administrator of ERDA (nowDOE) was required to “promulgate rules estab-lishing performance standards for electric and

hybrid vehicles to be purchased or leased. . .“37

within 15 months of enactment. The 1976 Actoriginally called for the procurement of 2,500EVs by December 17, 1979. Through an amend-ment in the law, the number has been reduced to200 for the first year and 600 and 1,700 in thefollowing 2 years. In all, an EV fleet of 7,500vehicles will be on the road for test and demon-stration in the 1981-84 period. It is importantthat this test fleet be viewed as a success or thefuture acceptance of EVs will be seriously jeop-ardized.

The DOE electric vehicle program has con-centrated on the development of six compo-nents. They include the battery, charger, motor,

jbElectric arid l-lybrld Vehicle Research, Development, and

Demonstration Act of 1976, P,L. 94-413, 94th Congress.371bid.

co nt ro ller , t ra nsmissio n, and body/ chass is .Table 149 lists the components and character-izes a few typical design alternatives. Figure 66shows two EV unit configurations with differentcharger systems. The onboard charger optionwould most likely be used for personal two- andfour-passenger vehicles; the batteries of thesevehicles would be charged at individual resi-dences. Small commercial delivery vans mightfind it more convenient to utilize high-voltage

offboard charging systems.

The key to a successful electric vehicle is thedevelopment of an improved battery with great-er storage capacity, higher power density, andgreater recycling capability at minimal cost in-creases. A number of electric-vehicle prototypesare currently being produced in the UnitedStates, Europe, and Japan. These generally in-corporate state-of-the-art lead-acid battery tech-nology. Such vehicles are typically limited to anoperating range of about 25 to 30 miles betweenrecharges; they generally have speed limitations

of less than 50 mph because of low specificpower. Also, the already-poor specific energycharacteristics (28 to 32 watt-hour per kilogram)of lead-acid batteries degrade further whenpower demand is increased to maintain high ac-celeration and operating speeds.

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Ch. 10—Techno/ogy q 347

Table 149.—Typical Electric Vehicle Component Design Alternatives

Component Type

Battery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Charger . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Motor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Controller . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transmission . . . . . . . . .

Body/chassis . . . . . . . . .Axles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Springs . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Brakes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tires. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Auxiliary power . . . . . . .

Accessories . . . . . . . . . .

Lead-acid (current)Lead-acid (Advanced)Nickel-ironIron-airZinc-airZinc-chlorineSodium-sulfur

Lithium-metal sulfideOnboardOffboardOffboard, battery exchangeDC traction (series wound)DC separately excited (shunt)AC inductionOthersSilicon controlled rectifier (SCR) chopperInverterVariable resistance (Rheostat)Typical: 3-speed automatic with torque converterContinuously variable transmissionManualNone

Fiber reinforced plastics (fiberglass)Lightweight metalsTypicalTypical Ieaf layer coilTypical Self-adjusting hydraulicRegenerativeTypicalBattery and chargerAC/DC converterGasoline heaterThermal storage heaterAir-conditioner

SOURCE US Enemy Research and Development Adminlstrat!on Transr)ortatlon Enerav Conservation Dlvlslon, Errvlrorr.menta/ De-v’e/opment P/an, September 1977

Europe and Japan are moving ahead in EVdevelopment. Japan has demonstrated an EVwith a range of nearly 300 miles 3g and Englandhas had a successful delivery fleet in operationfor several years.

There are several types of lead-acid batterycars on the market. They suffer from the prob-lems of short range, low speed, low perform-ance, and flimsy vehicle structure and they havenot sold well. General Motors has announcedthe possibil i ty of marketing a delivery-typevehicle or small urban passenger car in the1980’s. GM will also provide a number of theelectric vans in the DOE demonstration pro-gram.

“Briefing by the U.S. Department of Energy, September 1977.

-.

Electric Vehicle Components

The propulsion system of the EV is made upof the electric drive motor, the controller, andthe drivetrain. The drive motor may be either aDC or AC induction motor. Both systems mayincorporate regenerative electric braking. Thepotential advantages ascribed to the AC induc-tion motor relative to the DC drive include low-er maintenance requirements, lower cost, bettercontrol of speed and torque, greater reliability,and better performance in rugged terrain. Foreither system, required battery voltages are inthe range of 80 to 150 volts.

Attempts are being made to reduce overallvehicle weight and aerodynamic drag to im-prove performance. These goals can be attained

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r 1 Ia

1

II

I

II

II

I

I

III

IIIIIIII

II

II

II

II

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

III

Iu

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by constructing the body and suspension of special lightweight but high-strength materials(aluminum, plastics, composites) and by suit-ably streamlining the configuration.

Hybrid Systems

Hybrids using internal combustion enginescan be of the series or parallel type as well as

other arran~ements. (See figure 67. ) In the seriesconfigurate ion, the ICE is used to maintain theenergy storage system at optimum operatingconditions. The storage system is geared direct-ly to the drive wheels to provide propulsion. Inthe parallel configuration, either the ICE or theenergy storage system can supply power to thewheels, with each system operating as close tooptimum as possible. In both configurations,

the energy storage device is generally reversibleand capable of accepting energy from regenera-tive braking systems.

The major subsystems of hybrid vehicles areshown in table 150. The number of possible per-mutations is quite large; however, preliminaryinvestigations have indicated greater potentialfor certain configurations.

Reliable data on hybrid vehicles are unavail-able because few vehicles have been built. How-ever, extrapolation of certa in characterist icssuggests that a relatively small ICE (for highwaycruising) combined with an electric drive (forurban driving) may prove to be a successfulalternative to the severely limited range of pure-ly electric vehicles.

Table 150. —Hybrid Vehicle Subsystem Typical Design Alternatives

Vehicle subsystem Alternative hardware

Primary energy

converter

Secondary energyconverter

Motor/generator

ControlIer

Transmission

ChasisBody

AxlesSpringsBrakes

Tires

Heat engine

Conventional (Otto cycle)DieselGas turbineRankineStirling

Battery’Fuel cells

Heat engineFlywheelBatteryFuel cellHydrauIic accumulatorPneumatic pressure vesselb

Elastic storage (e.g., spring)

ACDC

InverterCycloconverterRelays, switchesChopper

Typical: a) 3-speed automatic with torque converter;b) manual

Continuously variable transmission

Fiber-reinforced plastics (fiberglass)Lightweight metalsTypical

Typical: Self-adjusting hydraulicRegenerativeTypical

aBattery f lywheel and other such configurations that use a sing [e energy source (e g elect r(clty) are considered eleclr!c

veh(cles

bean aISo be used as auxrl (ary storage for regenerative braking m a 3 part ener9Y stora9e ~Yslem

SOURCE U S Ene rgy Resea rch and Deve lopmen t Admln(stratlon Transpo r ta t i on Ene rgy Conse rva t i on D(wsionErrv~fon

menfa/ Development P/an Sep tember 1977

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.

. .

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Ch 10—Technology q 3 5 1

Both the electric-vehicle and hybrid-vehicledesigns are in their infancy. Therefore, a widerange of developments are being considered andmany of these are being pursued. Research ef-forts are continuing in the development of bat-teries with greater energy densities, longer life,and shorter recharging requirements. Flywheeldevelopment work has established objectives

for energy density for 1980 and 1985. Support-ing research is also being conducted on electricalcomponents and materials. The NASA LewisLaboratory (under contract to DOE) is trying toevaluate the more promising vehicle propulsionsystem configurations.

Investment and Costs

Current investment by the DOE for the EVand Hybrid Program is about $30 million forfiscal year 1978 and $37.5 million is requestedfor fiscal year 1979. The extent of private fund-

ing for research in the area is unknown at thistime, although it is thought to be fairly sizable.

Electric-vehicle costs are hard to project be-cause of the scarcity of data. A number of fac-tors, including improvement of vehicle design,

Photo Cred(~ A (Research Manufac!ur~ng C o m p a n y

advancement in battery technology, and devel-opment of production economies of scale, willinfluence future costs of electric vehicles. In astudy for DOE, General Research Corporationdeveloped costs for near-term (1980) two- andfour-passenger e lectric vehicles powered bylead-acid batteries. (See table 151, ) A com-parison of initial price shows a wide disparity

between two- and four-passenger EVs, and con-ventional (1976) ICES. Four-passenger EVs costabout 20 percent more than conventional ICEcompacts. The primary reason for the disparitylies in the cost of the lead-acid battery, whichaccounts for up to 22 percent of the total price of the EV. Four-passenger EVs are almost twice asexpensive as two-passenger EVs. Because of greater size and weight characteristics, the four-passenger EV requires a larger (and, therefore,more expensive) battery power pack than thatneeded by the two-passenger EV. Two-passen-ger EVs cost about 25 percent less than conven-

tional 1976 subcompacts. Again, the differenceis primarily due to the smaller weight of thetwo-passenger EV.

Operating costs for electric vehicles will de-pend largely on improvements in the energy ef-

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Table 151 .— Comparison of Costs for Electric and Conventional Cars(initial price, 1976 dollars)

Vehicle type Base price Battery cost Total2-passenger EV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,901 $ 374 $2,2754-passenger EV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,518 1,020 4,538Conventional compact. . . . . . . . . 3,780 — 3,780Conventional subcompact . . . . . 3,060 — 3,060

SOURCE General Research Corporation. Po(ent/a/ App/icabi/(ty O( a Lead.Acd Battery-Powered TwoPassenger E/ecfrm Car,June 1976.

ficiency of the battery, battery life, and thebattery-charging system. The rate of growth inthe price of electricity will also be a factor.Maintenance costs for electric vehicles are ex-pected to be less than those for conventionalICES simply because EVs have fewer mechanicalworking parts. The overa l l opera t ing costspread between ICES and EVs will also be influ-enced by the rate of improvement in ICE fuel

economy and the rate of growth in the price of gas, An important addition to routine operating

costs of a lead-acid battery system will occurabout every 2 years. This is the replacement of the entire battery pack at a cost of about $500 to$1,000 .

The costs of owning and operating hybrid ve-hicles are even less certain than for EVs. The ini-tial cost is anticipated to be higher than that of an EV, since two propulsion systems are in-cluded. Operating costs are dependent on many

of the same factors as the EV and also on thecost of the secondary fuel source.

ALTERNATE FUELS

The liquid and gaseous fuels that could beused in conventional and potential future auto-mobile powerplants can come from a variety of

sources and in numerous forms. Fuels whichhave been tried include: gasoline, diesel fuel,broadcut fuels, lower a lcohols (e thanol andmethanol), h igher a lcohols, e ther, ammonia,liquid natural gas, propane, methane, hydro-gen, and hydrazine. Any of these fuels can beused in pure form, and some can be blended ormixed with other fuels.

The sources of fuels are nearly as varied as thetype of products. Coal, o il shale , tar sands,biomass (including municipal and agriculturalwaste as well as agricultural products), and

water (for hydrogen), are considered likely al-ternate sources for fuel in the intermediate andlong term. This section deals with the technicalaspects of some of these sources, the end prod-ucts, and their use in propulsion systems forautomobiles.

Oil Shale

The oil in oil shale is contained in kerogen, a

complex, high molecular weight organic sub-stance composed of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen,sulfur, and nitrogen, intimately mixed with in-organic silt particles. Separation of the oil re-quires that heat be applied to the shale. Thiscauses the kerogen molecules to break up, re-leasing liquid hydrocarbons, some combustiblegases, and water from the inorganic spent shaleresidue. The liquid hydrocarbon mixture (crudeshale oil) is then upgraded to syncrude to makeit acceptable as a conventional petroleum refin-ery feedstock.

The use of substitute automotive fuels derivedfrom oil shale does not require new engine tech-nology. Oil shale products could supplementsupplies of petroleum available to the auto sec-tor. They could also be used as feedstocks forthe petrochemicals industry, thereby allowing

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greater use of availablethe automotive sector.

Two basic processesfrom oil shale are being

petroleum supplies by

for recovering the oildeveloped: the above-

-ground process, and in situ processing. Above--ground shale processing consists of four basicsteps: mining the shale; crushing it to the sizenecessary for the retorting vessel; retorting the

shale through the application of heat; and up-grading the raw shale oil through the removal of contaminants (excess nitrogen and oxygen) tomake it acceptable as a refinery feedstock.There are several above-ground shale oil proc-essing methods, characterized primarily by dif-ferent procedures used in heating and retortingthe oil shale.

In situ recovery of oil shale differs fromaboveground recovery in that the oil is recov-ered from directly within the bed of shale. Theshale is fractured by explosives and then ignitedby a flame from compressed air and a combus-tible ga s pumped into the shale bed. The gasesheat and retort the shale, producing an oilyvapor. The vapor condenses to a liquid at thebase of the in situ retort and is pumped to thesurface for upgrading to the level of refineryfeedstock quality. A “modified” in situ processis being developed in which a portion of theshale bed is first mined by conventional meth-ods and retorted on the surface. The remainingshale is retorted underground. This process hasbeen developed and is being tested by Occiden-tal Petroleum Corporation with marginal suc-

cess.Oil shale production is constrained primarily

by technology, production cost, and env iron-mental impacts. The existing processes have yetto be implemented on a commercial scale in theUnited States. It is unclear whether full-scaleproduction will entail changes or modificationsin existing technology.

The existence of high Ievels of nitrogen, ar-senic, and oxygen and high carbon-to-hydrocar-bon ra t ios in o i l sha le necess i ta tes fa i r lysubstantial upgrading to improve the quality of

oil shale syncrude. This processing is one of thecost factors that makes oil shale noncompetitivewith crude petroleum at current prices.

A major environmental constraint involvingabove-ground oil shale production is the prob-

Ch. 10— Technology q

lem of spent shale. Only about 12 percentweight) of oil shale can be converted to

35 3

(byoil.

(This figure varies depending on the quality of the deposit. ) The remaining 88 percent is rel-atively useless. It has been estimated that a 1-million-barrel-a-day (bbls/ day) shale ind ustryusing high-grade (3o gallons per ton) shale willgenerate 1.5 million tons of spent shale a day.This is after mining, crushing, and retorting.

Crushing the rock and retorting causes the totalvolume to increase. Thus, all of the spent shalecannot be put back where it came from. Theproblem of disposing of this shale in an environ-mentally and economically acceptable fashion isa major constraint to the success of the oil shaleindustry. Dust can also be a problem, partic-ularly if the processing reduces the shale to afine powder.

In situ processing has some different environ-mental impacts from those of surface retortingof sha!e. Aboveground processing is character-

ized by problems such as significant land dis-turbance due to mining, large volumes of spentshale, relatively high water use, and air andwater emissions from retort operations. In situprocessing reduces some of these impacts but in-creases the potential for ground water contami-nation, aquifer disruption, and subsidence oruplifting at the surface. Modified in situ process-ing has a combination of the surface and under-ground impacts.

Primary air pollutants associated with oilshale processing include sulfur dioxide, hydro-carbons, nitrogen oxides, a n d p a r t i c u la te .Other pollutants that can occur include am-m on ia, ca rb on m o n oxi d e, hydrogen sulfidetrace elements, and toxic substances. Conven-tional control systems are available for some of these pollutants, but their removal efficiencyand dependability in these specific applicationshave not been demonstrated. These air pollu-tants are off-gas emissions and are associatedwith both the surface and in situ retorting proc-esses, The effectiveness of in situ methods inreducing gaseous pollutant formation, and con-taining and treating them, will not be knownuntil the technology has undergone additionalfield testing. The upgrading, refinement, andstorage of the product are common steps to bothprocesses, and similar impacts will occur.

The water use requirements of shale process-

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ing may constrain the development and use of major oil shale deposits in arid regions. Theprincipal deposits of oil shale are found in Col-orado, Utah, and Wyoming, where water sup-plies are limited. Extensive development of thesedeposits, using existing mining and surfaceretorting methods, could cause unacceptableburdens on water use in the area and causeeconomic hardships for farmers and industriesusing the available water in these areas. In situprocessing requires less water for shale process-ing than current surface retorting and refining.

A major environmental impact which may

occur with in situ processing is geological dis-turbance. Mining, hydraulic and explosive frac-turing, and in situ retorting cause physical dis-ruption and cracking of strata. They may alsoresult in the severe disruption of adjacentground-water-bearing aquifers and cause subsi-

dence or uplifting at the surface. Depending onthe proximity and structure of aquifers, groundwater supplies may be contaminated and aqui-fer f low and storage characterist ics may bechanged. Subsidence at the surface, which maynot occur immediately, can damage buildingsand roadways or affect options for subsequentland use. Finally, since oil shale is concentratedprincipally in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming,the effect of “boomtown” development and ac-companying social problems could be consider-able.

At the present time, no oil shale plants have

been constructed or operated in the UnitedStates on a large-scale commercial basis. Thetechnology is at the bench-scale to pilot-plantstage of evolution. Both Government and pri-vately sponsored projects involving R&D of oilshale recovery processes have been underway

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since the 1920’s. Both above-ground (conven-tional) shale processing and in situ shale proc-essing are under development.

Several types of surface shale oil retortingmethods are reportedly near the state of com-mercial application. Union Oil Company hasannounced plans to construct a 10,000-bbl-per-day oil shale plant in Colorado, providing they

receive a proposed $3 per barrel tax credit. TheParaho Development Corporation is scheduledto produce a total of 100,000 barrels of shale oilfor test purposes at its plant at Anvil Points,C o l o . , u n d e r jo in t N a v y / DOE f in a n c in g .Paraho has also proposed to build an 11,500-ton-a-day commercial-scale module. Th eTOSCO Corporation, in conjunction with Col-ony Development Corporation has recently de-signed a commerical-sized plant to produce47,OOO bbls per day of shale oil and 4,3oo bblsper day of liquefied petroleum gas.

Additional research in aboveground oil shaleconversion has been carried out by Union OilCompany, the Institute of Gas Technology, andthe Superior Oil Company.

Several in situ processes have also beentested. Occidental Petroleum Corporation hasbeen conducting a series of field tests since 1972.It has constructed three commercial-sized, mod-ified in si tu re torts. One of these produced27,500 barrels of oil in 6 months from shale con-taining 17 gallons per ton. In addition, work isalso being done at the Lawrence Livermore Lab-oratory and DOE’s Laramie Energy TechnologyCenter on variants of in situ oil shale recovery.

Estimates of commercialization of fuels fromoil shale are subject to considerable speculation;a small amount of production could begin in thelate 1980’s or 1990’s. However, it will be manyyears before the maximum economic recoveryrate (commensurate with competing petroleumprices) will be attained. Current indications arethat oil shale derived fuels will not be widelyused by the auto sector before the year 2000,primarily because of cost considerations. Overthe next 20 to 25 years, the likelihood of com-

mercially available fuel from shale oil will in-crease as the price of petroleum increases.

Due to the continued uncertainty on such fac-tors as oil shale technology, environmental re-quirements, disposal of spent shale, and prob-

lems of operating on a large scale, investmentcosts of oil shale plants are difficult to estimatewith accuracy. The interplay of institutional,environmental, economic, and technologicalfactors will have significant impact on capitaland operating costs. Current estimates call for a$1 b i l l ion to $1 .2 b i l l ion investment fo r a50,000-barrel-a-day surface retort facility and atleast $75o million for a similar size modified insitu operation.

For the same reasons, the projected re ta ilprice of shale oil is uncertain. Occidental Petro-leum claims that it can produce oil from oilshale at a total cost of $12 a barrel . 39 Ho we v e r ,a n o th e r so u rc e (Co n t in e n ta l O i l Co mp a n y )claims that the addition of environmental costsand syncrude upgrading costs raises the per-barrel cost of oil shale to $16 to $26, a figurewell above the current world crude price of about $13.50 a barrel.

Tar Sands

T a r s a n d s ( o r b i t u m i n o u s s a n d s ) o c c u rth ro u g h o u t th e wo r ld in v a r io u s ty p e s o f deposits of varying viscosity. The bitumen inthe sand ranges from 5 to 13 percent by weight.The best deposits are in Canada and SouthAmerica, totaling 98 percent of the estimated1,680 billion barrels of world reserves. TheUnited States has less than 2 percent of worldreserves and considerably less in tar sands thanoil shale reserves. Consequently, tar sands are

not considered a major domestic energy re-source. Utah contains 93 percent of the esti-mated 27 billion barrels of oil in tar sanddeposits in the United States.

The recovery process of tar sands is of twotypes: mining followed by surface extraction,and in situ extraction. Surface extraction proc-esses are many:

q hot water (the only one used commercial-ly),

cold w a t e r ,

q solvent extraction,

q mechanical extraction, and

. spherical agglomeration.

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The types of in situ extraction that can beused are thermal stimulation and solvent extrac-tion. The thermal st imulation technique hasseveral approaches involving steam injection orflame propagation.

In situ and underground mining processes arecritical to tar sand development since only 10percent of the U.S. and Canadian tar sand can

actually be surface-mined for extraction. Theproduct is a heavy synthetic feedstock, high insulfur (up to 5 percent) and relatively low innitrogen (less than 1 percent), which can becracked to synthetic crude oil and then refined.The mining, extraction, and in situ processes of tar sand have all of the problems of oil shalemining and extraction. There are various R&Dpro jec ts ongoing in the Uni ted S ta tes . InCanada, there is a successful commercial tarsands plant producing 50,000 barrels per day of high-quality synthetic crude oil. Several othersare scheduled for operation in the 1980’s.40

Coal Liquids

Liquid hydrocarbons can be produced fromcoal by four categories of processes—solventhydrogenation, pyrolysis, hydrocarbonization,and indirect liquefaction. During these proc-esses, the coal is broken into smaller molecules,contaminants such as ash and sulfur are re-moved, and the proportion of hydrogen in themolecular structure is increased. Syntheticcrude oil, premium fuels, feedstocks, or low-

ash, low-sulfur boiler fuels are produced.Indirect liquefaction (e.g., Fischer Tropsch

synthesis) involves the gasification of coal in thepresence of oxygen and hydrogen. The gas isthen purified and passed over a catalyst, yield-ing liquid products ranging from methanol toheavy hydrocarbons. The process can be di-rected towards the production of motor fuel andsubstitute natural gas. This process is currentlyemployed in a State-owned plant (SASOL) inSouth Africa.

In solvent hydrogenation processes, the coal

is dissolved in process-derived solvent, andmolecular hydrogen is added directly or in-

‘“U. S. Department <>t th e Navy, Energy and Natural Resources,[<esearch a n d D e v e l o p m e n t CXtlce, E/~crgy Fact BC)CIL 1977TT-A-M277-306, Ap ril 1977, pp . VII-1 to VII-2O.

Photo Cred/f U S Deparfrnent of Energy

Mining for coal

directly via a hydrogen donor solvent. Solventhydrogenation processes can be either catalyticor noncatalytic. Catalytic processes are further

classified as fixed or ebullating bed reactors todescribe how the coal, solvent, and hydrogenmixtures contact the catalysts. Pressure in thesolvent hydrogenation reactor ranges from1,000 to 4,000 psi and temperature ranges from7500 to 9000 F.

Pyrolysis is similar to coal coking in that thecoal is heated to remove tars, gas, and othervolatiles, leaving a coal char that is largely car-bon. Coal pyrolysis processes usually operate atlow pressure (2o to 50 psi) and moderately hightemperature (1,600 0 F), and are noncatalytic.

Hydrocarbonization is a refinement of thecoal pyrolysis process and entails noncatalyticcarbonization of the coal and thermal crackingof the heavy coal liquids in a hydrogen atmos-phere to p roduce fue l o i l , d is t i l la tes , andgaseous fuels. Hydrocarbonization operates at

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rnoderate pressure (500 psi) and temperature(1,000° F). Most of the research in the UnitedStates is on the direct liquefaction process (thelatter three described).

The conversion of coal to a liquid product re-quires increasing the proportion of hydrogen,either by adding hydrogen or removing carbon.(The hydrogen-to-carbon ratio in coal is 0.9 to

1; in oil it is 1.75 to 1.) The hydrogen for theprocess can be derived from a catalytic reactionof steam and a light hydrocarbon (usually meth-ane or naptha), a partial oxidation of heavier oilor coal, or an endothermic reaction involvingcarbon and steam. For the economics of the con-version to be favorable, the energy for hydrogenproduction must come from the coal itself. Amajor influence on the cost is the 1imited abilityto produce a sufficient supply of hydrogen fromthe coal-generated energy to maximize the con-version of coal to hydrocarbons.

The use of substitute automotive fuels derivedfrom coal would not require new engine tech-nology. However, new engine technology couldreduce fuel quality requirements, and thus fuelcost. Coal liquids could supplement supplies of petroleum available to the automotive sector. Inaddition, the use of coal liquids as feedstocks forthe petrochemicals industry could allow greateruse of available petroleum supplies by the auto-motive sector.

Major constraints to the development and useof coal liquids center on technology, economics,

and environmental impacts. Since none of thecoal liquefaction processes have been demon-strated in the United States on a commercialscale, it is not clear which process will prove tobe the most energy-efficient and cost-effective.As a result, there is uncertainty about invest-ment, operating costs, and production levels.

Coal liquefaction processes generally requirehigh pressures, carefully controlled tempera-tures, and large reactors for coal conversion.This, in turn, requires specialized equipmentthat can withstand the corrosive and fouling ef-

fects of coal and can adequately control the flowof materials and heat in the reactors. Research iscontinuing into the development of equipmentfor commercial-scale application. However, as aresult of these specialized equipment needs, theprocesses are highly capital-intensive.


Before coal liquids can be refined, ash

_ 357

par-ticulate and unreacted solids must be separatedand removed. Several processes for ash andsolids removal have been developed and are be-ing tested. A major goal is to eliminate excessivechar buildup and clogging of feed 1ines and reac-tor equipment.

Unless heavily upgraded, crude oil derived

from coal is generally inferior to natural crudeoil because greater quantities of bound nitrogenare present in the synthetic crude. In addition,liquids from coal may be less stable than petro-leum liquids. Although processes have been de-veloped to upgrade the quality of coal-derivedsyncrude, they involve additional costs thathinder the competitiveness of coal liquids.

The price of available conventional fuel sup-plies (gas and oil) is also an important factor.Given current technology, coal liquids cannotbe produced or sold (except at a loss) at current

levels of petroleum import prices. Thus, the im-port price of crude oil must rise before invest-ments in coal liquefaction become attractive,Crude oil prices will rise as existing world sup-plies of conventional fuels are depleted and / oras a result of a price hike by the OPEC cartel.Both of these mechanisms are largely beyondthe control of the United States. Therefore, un-certainty with respect to the price and rate of depletion of existing fuels contributes to uncer-tainty with respect to the economics of invest-ment in a coal liquefaction industry. Even if thecost of coal liquefaction becomes competitive

with petroleum production, factors relating torisk acceptability and capital cost may delay thecommercialization of coal liquids. Not only areproduction processes untested at the commer-cial level (with the notable exception of SASOLin South Africa), but also the substitution of coal liquids for conventional fuels is relativelyuntested. However, it is believed that any suchchangeover will be simple and straightforward.

In addition, few companies have immediateaccess to the large amounts of capital requiredfor plant construction. Therefore, the rate at

which capital can be mobilized (i. e., through theformation of joint ventures or consortia) willhave an impact on the level and timing of coalliquids’ commercialization.

Other drawbacks involve environmental con-siderations. Large-scale deployment of coal liq-

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uefact ion p r o c e s s e s c o u l d h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t i m -pacts on the air and water quality of the regionsin which they are developed. Sources of processemissions are known and conventional tech-niques are available for emissions control. How-ever, the exact quantities of air and waste-waterpollution are not well-known, nor have theoverall cost effectiveness and dependability of conventional control techniques been demon-

strated for large-scale coal liquefaction plants.

Two other environmental characteristics of liquefaction are of particular concern—the in-herently hazardous nature of some organic com-pounds generated in this process, and the en-vironmental impacts specific to the use of theproduct coal liquids. Great care must be takento a v o id h a z a rd o u s e x p o su re s to p ro c e ssstreams, products, and waste streams. The dan-gerous organic compounds that exist in air emis-sions, water effluents, and solid waste can beeliminated through oxidation and decomposi-

tion.

Many of the organic liquids derived from coalare both carcinogenic and toxic (as is naturalcrude oil) and it is not expected that the prod-ucts of liquefaction will be rendered inert. Oneexample relates to the benzene content of coal-derived liquids. Benzene has been recently rec-ognized as a carcinogen, and both the Environ-mental Protection Administration and the Oc-cupational Safety and Health Administrationare stepping up their regulatory program ac-cordingly. Regulations applicable to petroleum

refining and gasoline handling are expected.Gasoline has about 2 percent benzene. Coal-de-rived gasoline will require greater control thanconventional gasoline, since coal liquids have 5-to lo-percent benzene content.

Liquefaction produces a low-ash, low-sulfurfuel, but does little to reduce the nitrogen con-tent of the fuel. To avoid damaging the catalystsin the refinery, most of this nitrogen must beremoved before the fuel is refined to gasoline.Use of coal-derived gasoline can result in higheremissions of nitrogen oxide than use of petro-

leum-refined gasoline, unless the denitrificationof the coal-based fuel reduces fuel-bound nitro-gen below the level found in petroleum. In addi-tion, coal-derived fuels contain proportionatelylarger amounts of aromatics and ring-structurecompounds. Research is underway to test the ef-

fects of these differences in fuel chemical com-position on engine exhaust emissions and com-bustion characteristics.

Still, the greatest technological barriers tocoal liquids utilization lie in the productionarea. The major thrust of present Governmentand private research is on the development andimprovement of coal liquefaction production

technology. DOE is currently sponsoring thedevelopment of several conversion processesthat are in the pilot-plant stage. In fiscal year1977, $73 million had been spent on R&D forcoal liquefaction. Among the chief efforts arethe Solvent Refined Coal Process pilot plant atFort Lewis, Wash.; the H-Coal Process pilotplant at Catlettsburg, Ky.; and HydrocarbonResearch, Inc.

Other projects include the Donor Solvent Liq-uefaction Process, being developed by EXXONResearch and Engineering Company. The pro-duction of clean industrial and transportation

fuels from coal is being investigated by the Lum-mus Company through the use of a bench-scalepilot plant.

While significant experimentation has beenconducted to determine the optimum operatingconditions for coal conversion processes, therehas also been extensive research and testing of the ability of coal handling and feeding systemsto withstand the corrosive and fouling effects of coal and coal products in the conversion proc-ess. Separation of ash and unreacted coal fromthe viscous coal liquids is a difficult problem

common to all liquefaction processes and hasalso been the focus of considerable developmenteffort. Many techniques are being investigated,including filtration, centrifugation, fractiona-tion, and magnetic and solvent separation.

The time frame for commercialization of coalliquids is long term. As mentioned previously,the rate and extent of market penetration willdepend on the price and availability of conven-tional fuels and the cost (relative to existingfuels) of producing and using coal liquids. In astudy for DOE, Energy and Environmental

Analysis, Inc., estimated that coal liquefactionplants will first become commercially profitableb e t w e e n 1988 a n d 2 0 0 5 . 4’ S o m e i n d u s t r y

“Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., Integration of Umcertaitlty i}) to ]ndustriui E~w/ ua t iom L~} Fossil Energy ~P c h n L O / -

o,gies, February 1977.

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sources predict that synthetic fuels could beavailable at approximately double the cost of producing liquid fuels from crude oil at currentrates. On this basis and assuming assuming a 3-percent-per-year real increase in the currentprice of imported crude, (about $13 a barrel)coal liquids r-night become profitable around2000.

Estimates of capital costs for coal liquefactionplants with 50,000 -bbl-per-day capacity rangefrom $650 mill ion to $850 mill ion.” Thesefigures sh o u ld b e r e g a rd e d w i th c a u t io n .Changes in institutional, environmental, eco-nomic, and technological factors could have sig-nificant effects on investment and fundinglevels. Moreover, few firms may be willing toinvest in large-scale liquefaction plants untilpilot plants have been successfully built andoperated. This itself is a lengthy and expensiveprocess, requiring at least 4 years and (depend-ing on pilot plant size), $50 million to $200

million.

43

Alcohol Fuel and Alcohol= GasolineBlends

Alcohol fuels generally involve the use of e ither e thanol or methanol, a l though higheralcohols and ether are potential, but less likely,ca nd id at es . E th a n o l ( g r a in a l co h o l) ca n b emanufactured by fermentation from biomass(i. e., municipal and agricultural wastes, plants,grain, etc. ).

Methanol is currently produced from naturalgas, heavy residuals, or naphtha. Recent re-search on synthetic fuels has also illustrated thepotential for producing methanol from coal.Methanol can also be produced from biomass,but not as readily as ethanol.

Alcohol can be used as an automotive fuel intwo ways. It can be blended with regular gaso-line in concentrations of up to 20 to 30 percentby volume with only minor changes in automo-bile engines and fuel systems. Pure (neat) meth-anol or ethanol can be used only if the engine

and fuel system are modified.

The high octane rating of alcohol allows foran increased compression ratio, which in turnprovides better thermal efficiency. Thus, al-though the Btu content per unit volume of al-cohol is only about half that of gasoline, it of-fers potential energy efficiency improvements of 3 to 10 percent relative to gasoline on a weightbasis. ”

Problems associated with the use of neatmethanol include corrosion, cold starting, andvaporlock. However, such problems are rou-tinely solved during the development phase of various gasoline engine changes, and demon-stration vehicles burning neat methanol havebeen successful.

The costs of modifying engine carburetionand fuel feed systems for the use of alcohol-gasoline blends are minor. In many cases, allthat is required is carburetor adjustment. Inthese terms, the potential for the use of alcoholblends is greater than that for neat alcohol. Al-

cohol fuels can also be used in gas turbines, inexternal combustion engines such as the Stir-ling, and in boiler heating applications.

The emission characteristics of engines burn-ing alcohol fuels compare favorably with gaso-line-powered engines. In general, pure alcoholfuel shows a reduction in hydrocarbons, carbonmonoxide, and nitrogen oxides, although thedata are not perfectly uniform or consistent.Emissions tests using pure methanol have shownreductions in NO X by a factor of two to threeover similar tests with gasoline. Ethanol does

not appear to offer as much of a reduction inregulated pollutants as methanol. Alcohol-gas-oline blends seem to alter the emissions in pro-portion to the amount of alcohol in the blend.

Potential problems could exist with respect tothe level of the presently unregulated unburnedfuel (UBF) emissions of methanol engines. UBFemissions with methanol are as much as 5 timesthose of gasoline. Less than 2 percent of the UBFemissions are hydrocarbons; the remainder con-sist mainly of methanol and aldehydes. Theseemissions are currently unregulated; their airpollution significance in terms of reactivity andtoxicity is not well-understood. If further study

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AGRICULTURAL

&

FOREST RESIDUE

N EW

TERRESTRIAL

PLANT

GROWTH

N EW

AQUATIC

PLANT

GROWTH

gasification vary

Ch. 10—Techno/ogy q 3 6 1

FUELS FROM BIOMASS

with assumptions regardingenvironmental regulations, coal prices, capital

costs, and the commercial application of alter-native conversion processes. The fact that thereare no coal gasification plants in commercial-scale operation in the United States heightensthe risk and cost for potential investors. Oneestimate of capital costs for the Synthane coalgasification process showed capital investmentfigures ranging from $420 million to $737.5 mil-lion for a 250 million standard-cubic-feet-per-day gas plant 47.

The production of ethanol requires construc-tion of fermentation and distillation facilitiesthat are much different than those currentlyused. The abili ty to produce ethanol on asmaller scale, with a local or regional resourceand market base, may offer a production ad-

Phofo Credll U S Department of Energy

vantage over methanol from the standpoint of facil i ty size requirements, startup t ime, and

capital.In 1974 through 1977, the Nebraska Agricul-

tural Products Industrial Utilization Committeeconducted a fleet test with 45 vehicles using a10-percent ethanol blend. The vehicles traveledover 2 million miles, and no problems were re-ported with the use of gasohol. The Committeeis now involved in facility site selection for ethylalcohol plants in Nebraska.

In an effort to stimulate the development of alcohol production facilities, the California leg-islature recently approved a $1.00 per gallon in-

vestment tax credit on ethanol sold as a blendwith gasoline. Gasohol is also available in Iowaand Illinois in limited quantities. The Coloradolegislature recently approved a gasohol programfor that State, reportedly because they believethat the use of gasohol in motor vehicles will

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significantly relieve the air pollution problem inthe Denver area.

Current Federal policy consists of subsidizingR&D for coal gasification and liquefaction. Amore active Federal policy might consist of pricesupports and subsidies for the capital and oper-ating costs of producing methanol from coal,Biomass conversion to ethanol or methanol has

the inherent advantage of recycling waste prod-ucts of many types; support in developing theseprocesses would accelerate development in thisarea.

The Mobil Process: Methanol to Gasoline

Mobil Oil Corporation recently reported thedevelopment of a process to convert methanolto gasoline. The process, using a zeolite cata-lyst, basically dehydrates the methanol. ‘i-heend products from pure methanol are gasoline(about 38 percent), water (56 percent), and asmall amount of liquid petroleum gas and fuel

oil. The gasoline has no sulfur or nitrogen, andhas a fairly high octane rating.

It is reported that, to obtain 1 gallon of gasoline, 2.4 gallons of methanol are required,plus $0.10 per gallon refinery costs. Thus thefeasibility of commercializing this process de-pends heavily on the relative costs of methanolversus conventional gasoline. The advantagesof this product are that no alterations are re-quired in engines, shipping, or storage facilities.The purity of the product and high octane ratingwould also be beneficial. ‘a

JH 1~~~~~~ ta ~Jn ~1 ~ w l ]]ianl r. K(>~hl, Mo b i Ie Oi l Corporation a t

the Symposium (>n Alternative Fuels U t i] iza tton, University of

Santa C]ara, Santa Clara, Cant., lune 18-23, 1Q78,

Hydrogen

In recent years, there has been considerableinterest in hydrogen as a replacement for petro-leum-based fuels. Hydrogen has a high energycontent and, if burned with oxygen, is basicallyemission free. If burned with air in an internalcombustion engine, H z has potential of greatlyr ed u ced e m ission s, a l t h o u g h s o m e N O X i sformed and there are problems with pre-ignitionand explosions back through the intake system.Hydrogen is very compatible with alternativeheat engines such as the gas turbine and the Stir-ling engine.

Other problems with hydrogen as a fuel forground vehicles are centered around storage andthe fueling infrastructure. Hydrogen is of verylow density as a gas (the lowest of all elements)and would have to be stored and transportedunder extreme pressure. As a liquid, hydrogen iscryogenic, and the thermal insulation and spe-

c ia l hand l ing requ ired would mean tha t thegeneral use of hydrogen would be costly. Sev-eral developments are in progress for storinghydrogen as a metal hydride; they show somepromise, but are a long way from practical ap-plication. Since hydrogen molecules are small,leakage would always be a problem. Becausehydrogen is colorless and odorless, leaks cannotbe easily detected or traced.

The potential for hydrogen use exists, butgeneral use is not expected until many problemsare solved. In addition, an adequate supply

would probably not be available until a cheap,effective method of extracting hydrogen fromwater is developed.

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GLOSSARY

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GLOSSARY

Acronyms

ACRS

AGT

AMC

AQCR

BLS

Bt u

CAFE

CBD

CE QCID

CO

CPI

CVCC

CVT

DO E

DO T

DP I

D P M

E G R

EP AEPCA

E R D A

F H W A

FMVSS

FTC

GM C

GN P

GRT

HC

HE\ \ ’

ICE

LARPP

LDV

MMBD

and Abbreviations

m p g

MVMA

N A A Q S

NAS NAE

NEPA

NHTSA

No,

OCS

OPEC

OSHA

PIES

PL

PMT

PMVI

PRT

RSVSEC

SIE

SLT

SMSA

SRI

Sydec

TC P

TSM

UMTA

U.S.C

VM TWAES

WOCA

365

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Definitions

Adiabatic—Occurring without loss or gain of heat;in automotive engines, a design that incor-porates thermal shielding to prevent radianthea t lo s s - the reb y inc reas ing the rmal e f f i -ciency and allowing recapture of heat from

the exhaust stream.Air Cushion Restraint System (ACRS)—An auto-motive safety device in which a sensor, ac-tivated by the rapid deceleration caused byimpact with another vehicle or a fixed object,triggers a mechanism that inflates air bags infront of the driver and front-seat passengers.The driver bag is housed in the steering wheelhub. The passenger bag is in the area typicallyused for a glove compartment.

Air Quality Control Region (AQCR)—A geographicarea, designated by the Federal Government,where two or more communities either in thesame or different States have the same air

quality or share a common air pollution prob-lem. ACQRS were established by the CleanAir Act of 1963 as the areas in which attain-ment of National Ambient Air Quality Stand-ards is to be measured. Currently there are247 such regions in the United States and itsterritories.

Air Quality Standards—The prescribed level of pol-lutants in the outside air that cannot be ex-ceeded legally during a specified time in aspecified geographic area. (Also called Na-tional Ambient Air Quality Standards. )

Allocation—An administrative distribution of fundsby the Federal Government among the States

(performed for funds that do not have legis-latively mandated distribution formulas).Appropr iat ion—A legis la t ive act ion that makes

funds available for expenditure with specificlimitations as to amount, purpose, and dura-tion. In most cases, an appropriation act per-mits money previously authorized by substan-tive legislation to be obligated and paymentsto be made. In the highway program, appro-priations specify the amount of funds whichCongress wil l make avai lable to l iquidateprior obligations; that is, the sum of all pay-ments of vouchers to be submitted during ag iven fi sca l yea r . H ighw ay appropr ia t ions

permit the payment of obligations incurred inprevious years.Arterial—A highway primarily for through traffic,

usually a continuous route.A u th or iz at io n—Su b st an t iv e l e g is l a t io n t h a t e m -

powers an agency to implement a particular

program and, in many cases, establishes anupper limit on the amount of funds that can beappropriated for that program.

Automated Guideway Trans i t (AGT)—A class of transportation systems in which unmanned

vehicles are operated on f ixed guidewaysalong an exclusive right-of-way. Commonly,AGT systems are divided into three classes:Shuttle-Loop Transit, Group Rapid Transit,Personal Rapid Transit.

Automobile—As used in this study, a four-wheeledvehicle, with a gross weight of less than 6,000pounds, designed primarily for use as a pas-s en g e r c ar . C o u p es , se d a n s, a n d s t a ti onwagons of all sizes are considered automo-b i l e s . L i g h t - d u t y t r u c k s a n d v a n s , e v e nthough used as passenger vehicles, are notcl as se d a s a u t o m o bi le s. M o to r cy cl es a n dmopeds are also excluded.

Barrel—A measure of petroleum or petroleum prod-ucts, equivalent to 42 U.S. gallons.Brayton Cycle Engine—A high-speed, external com-

bustion engine in which expanding gases fromcontinuously burning fuel are used to drive aturbine. Most of the turbine output is used asmotive power, but some is used to drive acompressor to provide air for the combustionprocess. (Also known as Gas Turbine Engine. )

British Thermal Unit (Btu)—The quantity of heat re-quired to raise the temperature of 1 pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit at or near 39.2 F.(used as a measure of the energy content of fuels).

Corpora te A verage F ue l Economy (CA F E)–Thesales-weighted average fuel consumption (inmpg) for all passenger vehicles sold by anautomotive manufacturer in a given modelyear.

Capacity (Highway)—The maximum number of ve-hicles that can pass over a given section of alane or roadway in one direction (or in bothdirections for a two-lane or three-lane high-way) during a given time period under pre-vailing roadway and traffic conditions.

Categorical Grant—As applied to highway financ-ing, funding from a higher level of govern-ment (Federal or State) that is earmarked for

expenditure for particular purposes.Central Business District (CBD)—Usually the down-town retail trade area of a city, or generall y anarea of very high land valuation, traffic flow,and concentration of retail business offices,theaters, hotels, and service businesses.

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Glossary q 36 7

Crash

Diesel

Diesel

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3.

4.

Interstate System-Technically The Na-tional System of Interstate and DefenseHighways; a system of freeways estab-lished by the Federal Government in 1944to connect principal cities and industrialareas.Federal-Aid Urban System/ -A system of roads, including some extensions of the In-terstate System, that serves major urbanactivity centers and includes high-volume

arterial and collector routes and accessroads to terminals of other transportationmodes.

Fleet—The total stock of vehicles in use in the coun-try.

Freeway (Expressway)—A divided arterial highwaydesigned for the safe unimpeded movement of large volumes of traffic, with full control of access and grade separations at intersections.

Fuel Cell—An electrical power source in which fuel

Gross

Gross

and oxidant are fed continuously to the elec-trodes, converting chemical energy into elec-trical energy directly, without the need torecharge an electrical outlet.

National Product (GNP)—The market valueof all goods and services produced by the Na-tion’s economy. As calculated quarter ly bythe Department of Commerce, gross nationalproduct is the broadest available measure of the level of economic activity.Vehicle Weight—The weight of the emptyvehicle plus the weight of the maximum an-ticipated load. (See also Curb Weight. )

Highway Trust Fund—A trust fund established byCongress in 1956 to finance construction ofthe 45,000-mile National System of Interstateand Defense Highways. Trust Fund revenues

accrue from highway user taxes.Household—All persons occupying a housing unit.Household Formation—The establishment of new

households (individuals, couples, or families);the consumer unit that rents or buys and oc-cupies housing units. New households areformed by marriage, divorce or separation,children moving from their parents’ homes totheir own dwelling units, or movement fromgroup quarters to individual dwelling units.

Hybr id Vehicle—A vehicle with two propuls ion sys-tems that use dif ferent sources of e n e r g y —typically an energy storage system (battery orflywheel) and an internal-combustion engine

to p rov ide aux i l ia ry power fo r per iods o f heavy load, such as during acceleration orhigh-speed cruise.

Hydrocarbon—An organic compound made up en-tirely of carbon and hydrogen.

Hydrocarbon Fuels—Fuels that contain an organicchemical compound of hydrogen and carbon.

Intermediate-Size Car—A pre-1975 automobile in-dustry designation for cars with a wheelbasebetween 112 and 118 inches. (See Vehicle SizeClass. )

Internal Combusiton Engine (ICE)—Any engine,either reciprocating or rotary, in which thefuel is burned inside of the engine.

Interstate Highway System—(See National System of

Interstate and Defense Highways. )Jitney–A car or small bus that carries passengers

over a regular route according to a flexibleschedule.

Lead —Tetraethyl lead or any other organo-metalliclead compound added to gasoline to preventengine knock.

Light-Duty Vehicle (LDV)—Any motor vehicle eitherdesigned pr imar i ly fo r t ranspor ta t ion o f goods and rated at 6,000 pounds gross vehicleweight (GVW) or less, or designed primarilyfor transportation of persons and having acapacity of 12 persons or less.

Light Truck—A truck with a gross vehicle weight of

10,000 pound s or less.Local Street—A street intended only to provide ac-

Masscess to abutting properties.Transit—For-hire, common-carr ier , groundpassenger transportation service provided fortravel within communities or metropolitanareas. Included are all forms of surface, ele-vated and subsurface modes that use fixedguideways or operate on streets, highways orwaterways. All air transportation modes areexcluded.

Methanol—A light, volatile, poisonous liquid alco-hol (CH 40) formed in the destructive distilla-tion of wood or made synthetically.

Middle Distillates—A category of petroleum fuel thatincludes home heating oil and the diesel fuelsburned by surface transportation carriers.

Mobility—The satisfaction of travel demand. Theparameters of mobility are number of trips,trip length, number of persons served, and themode of transportation.

Modal Split—The distribution of person trips bymode of travel.

Motor Bus—A rubber-tired, self-propelled, manuallysteered transit vehicle with fuel supply carriedon board.

N a t i o n a l A m b i e n t A i r Quality S tan d a r d s(NAAQS)—The prescribed levels of atmos-

pher ic po l lu tan ts tha t cannot be exceededlegally during a specified time in a specifiedgeographic area. NAAQSS are established byEPA under the authority of the Clean Air Actof 1970.

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Glo ssa ry q 3 6 9

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helium or hydrogen) that drives a piston. Theexpanded (and thus cooled) working fluid iscompressed and reheated for another pistonstroke.

Stratified-Charge Engine—A slightly mod ified Ottocycle engine in which fuel is fed into thecylinders in a way that produces a rich fuel-airmixture near the spark plug and a lean mix-ture elsewhere. The spark plug ignites the richmixture which, in turn, ignites the lean mix-ture, producing a more complete burn and insome designs, a more efficient use of fuel.

Subcompact Car—A pre-1975 automobile industrydesignation for cars with a wheelbase of 100inches or less. After 1975 these cars are in-clud ed in the small category. (See Vehicle SizeClass. )

Synth etic Fuel (Synfuel)—A fuel that does not existin nature, but can be manufactured or synthe-sized from natural materials. Generally, syn-thetic fuels are derived from other forms of fossil fuels that are less convenient for con-sumer use. Synthetic liquid fuels are producedfrom coal, shale, and tar sands.

Tar sands—Geological deposits of sand and clay thatare heavily impregnated with oil.

Three-Way Catalyst—A treatment system for auto-mobile exhaus t that employs p lat inum orrhodium as the active noble metal catalyst forconversion of HC, CO, and NO X. The device

derives its name from the fact that it acts onthe three major atmospheric pollutants in au-tomobile exhaust.

Transit—(See Mass Transit. )Truck—A motor vehicle des igned pr imar i ly for

goods movement which is used on publ ichighways and streets.

Turbocharger—An air compressor driven by exhaustgases from an engine and used to force thefuel-air mixture into the cylinders at greaterthan atmospheric pressure, thereby boostingthe power of the engine.

Vehicle Damage Protection—Vehicle design featuresintended to reduce the cost of damage to thevehicle in low-speed collisions. These featureshave no effect on death or injury to vehicle oc-cupants. (See also Crashworthiness. )

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)—One vehicle travel-ing one mile. As an aggregate measure, VMTrepresents the travel by all vehicles on a givenroadway or on all roadways in a specifiedgeographic area during a given time period.

Vehicle Size Class—A classification of motor vehiclesby length. Pre-1975 and post-1975 size classesare shown in the following table:

Pre-1975 Post-1975Subcompact (100” or less) Small (less than 100” )Compact ( 101” -111“) Medium (100” - 112”)Intermediate ( 112” - 118”) Large (over 112”)Standard (119” or over)

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

ENERGY

ENVIRONMENT

37 3

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SAFETY

MOBILITY