a cellulose-based society - innventia’s next global outlook (with speechbubbles)

A Cellulose-Based SocietyInnventia’s Next Global OutlookMarco LucisanoInnventia Days 2015, Stockholm, September 30th [email protected]

This is a copy of a presentation of the project “A Cellulose-Based Society”, given during Innventia Days 2015. We have added speech bubbles to guide you through the slides.

Please feel free to contact me if you have questions and comments: [email protected]

www.innventia.com © 2015 2

A Cellulose-Based Society

”A Cellulose-Based Society” is the name of the thirdGlobal Outlook Initiative at Innventia. The project started in March 2015 and it is expected to publish its final report on May 24th, 2016.

Please feel free to share this file within your network and keep the conversation alive in our discussion group on LinkedIn.

https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=8387874&trk=my_groups-tile-grp


The most common building block in nature

A base for a circularbio-based economy

The vision of the ”A Cellulose-Based Society” is that cellulose, the most common building block used by nature, can become a base for a circular bio-based economy. We believe that it is possible to replace many of todays linear processes, where products go from cradle to grave ending up as waste, with new processes and business models in balance with natural resources. We believe that cellulose, together with the other raw materials growing in our forests, is a key in the shifts to come.


Innventia is a world-leading research institute that works with innovations based on forest raw materials. We apply the knowledge bank and process technology of the forest industry, develop it further and look for new opportunities for our customers and partners.


We call our approach “Boosting business with science”.


Whereas profitability is one obvious driver for all businesses, another factor became evident thanks to the efforts of many opinion makers. Here “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore, from 2006, a work that raised global awareness of the challenges connected to climate change.


Photo: NASA

Today, approximately 10 years later, profitability is no longer the only driver of business development – planet earth is becoming more important!


August 13

2015

In 2015 we reached the earth over-shoot day in August, that is the day when we had consumed what one planet earth can produce during one year.

It takes 1.6 earths to support humanity’s demand on nature, but we only have one.

http://www.overshootday.org/

http://www.overshootday.org/


Fossil Economy Sugar Economy

We believe that part of the solution to the global challenges of climate change can be found in the shift from a fossil economy to a sugar economy, based on cellulose.


Cellulose and cellulose-based materials are already today used in a variety of applications. The properties of cellulose-based materials can be designed for a variety of purposes, here dishware in melamine-cellulose materials, and packaging paper.


Cellulose can be soft and drapable and be used in textiles, or a tough material to protect goods transported around the globe.


Cellulose can be extremely bulky and be used in very light-weight materials or take the traditional form of paper for printing and writing.


The most common building block in nature

A base for a circularbio-based economy

And yet, we still believe that there is more to be done for cellulose and all the other forest-based materials to find their role in the circular bio-based economy of tomorrow.

With our project “A Cellulose-Based Society”, we want to contribute to this shift.


LOVREN

When looking for new opportunities for cellulose and for the forest industry, we apply two different balancing filters: the first one relates to the balance of the traditional production lines for the pulp and paper industry with the new and innovative opportunities. Finding this balance is crucial to the long-term well being of the industry.

The Louvre in Paris is a perfect symbol of the harmony between tradition and new opportunities. As a matter of curiosity, the modern paper machine (as we know it today) was invented at the same time as the Louvre opened as a museum.


Yet another balancing act, that needs to be considered, if found when considering the need of both massive high-tonnage productions and smaller volumes of (hopefully) high-margin products. Who knows, the small niche products of today may grow to become big and strong in a near future.


A CELLULOSE-BASEDSOCIETY

2013 2014 2016

“A Cellulose-Based Society” is the 3rd Innventia Global Outlook report, in a series that started with “Packaging 2020” and continued with “Papermaking Towards the Future”.


Vision Forecast

Since “A Cellulose-Based Society” is a study about the future, one could assume that we are trying to describe a vision for the future, or maybe a forecast. Naturally, both visions and forecast are interesting, yet neither is the Innventia way to work with foresight studies.


To us, working with future studies is like training to drive a car in a foggy autumn day. When you do it, you rely on your experience of interpreting signs and signals. Indeed traffic signs are designed so that we can understand their meaning even when we just can see their shape.

When you have trained and you manage to react quickly to what happens around you, then you can drive home safely. Or, leaving the world of analogies, steer your company to a successful future.


Globaltrends

Scientifically possible

Innventia Global Outlooks describe interesting intersections between global trends in business and society and scientific and technical developments reaching the tipping point to implementation.


We are proud of the methodology we use for our studies. We identify people in our organization with deep understanding of science and technology in their fields. Here you see Fredrik Rosén and Paul Krochak, the project managers of our first two studies ”Packaging 2020” and ”Papermaking towards the future”.

mailto:[email protected]





…and we ask them to speak “with the rest of the world”. We interview people in business, within and outside of our industry, in all functions in their companies, engineers, designers, marketing people, CEOs, R&D directors... We interview associations, end users, architects, non-governmental organizations, political parties...


When we have listened to the world outside of Innventia, we try and find links and trends, relationships and meaning…


Then we quantify our findings via expert studies or consumer surveys…


We are happy to have our main office within the campus of KTH, The Royal Institute of Technology, the largest technical university in Scandinavia. This gives us access to the opinion of the new generations, a good “reality check” for anyone who hopes to discuss the future.


And naturally, we read a lot… both from digital sources and on the good old cellulose-based substrate, paper.


Since the vision of our third Global Outlook is the most challenging we have attempted so far, we have put together a team with a multitude of competences, from chemistry to market strategy, from solid mechanics to communication...


And we started by studying what happens around us, far away from the forest-based industry: city planning…


…buildings…


…life sciences…


and textiles…


… car manufacturing and the transportation industry at large...


… furniture and interior design...


The food industry… and many other sectors of the industry, business and society.


Global drivers

and opportunities

Acto

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Trends

Science@Innventia

Scen

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Uncertainties

We consider a number of different dimensions in our study.


Global drivers, challenges and opportunities, here illustrated by the Pavilion Zero at Expo 2015, the universal exhibition in Milano, with the extremely relevant theme “Feeding the planet, energy for life”.

http://www.expo2015.org/en/pavillion-zero

http://www.expo2015.org/en/


The city as the norm

Longing forthe Green

Never beaverage

No-wasteeconomy

Shift happens

Innovation by collaboration

The conscious and confused eco-consumer

Businessactivism

The demonstrationeconomy

TrendsWe have identified nine trends, which we believe are crucial for the development of a circular bio-based economy.


Actors and relationshipsWe study which actors are working around the globe, what they say they are doing and how they are connected to each other.


Naturally, we consider the competence mix we have at Innventia today in 2015, but also what we might develop in the near future and towards 2030.


There are also a number of uncertainties that need to be considered: oil being one. How will the price of oil develop? Will oil supplies last?Will we want to base the future of our economies on oil?


Yet another set of uncertainties is connected to the development of global economy.


…stability on the planet...


And the role of entrepreneurs in global economy…

We use these uncertainties a many others to generate scenarios...


Global drivers

and opportunities

Acto

rs

Trends

Science@Innventia

Scen

ario

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Uncertainties

And combining all of these elements we formulate hypothesis, develop them, test them in our networks and look for opportunities and challenges to be addressed.


Image: Envac Photo: Evan Schneider, UN

Now that we have discussed at length how we work in the project, you might want to know more about one specific theme we are discussing in the project.

No one will be surprised that we are discussing the life cycle of materials, especially those based on cellulose. A landfill as the normal end-of-life destination for the materials we used is one of tangible signs that we need to reconsider many of our business practices.


The Ellen MacArthur Foundation defines the circular economy as “one that is restorative and regenerative by design, and which aims to keep products, components and materials at their highest utility and value at all times, distinguishing between technical and biological cycles”.

This approach feels attractive, particularly for people and businesses deeply rooted in the forest industry. The paper industry has a reputation of being excellent at recycling, indeed one of the best in this respect. Yet, are we?

http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy


The global paper recycling rate stands at about 58%. Some developed countries have achieved as high as 70 to

75%. Many developing countries are establishing infrastructure to help improve paper recycling rates.

(CEPI, ICFPA, RISI)

His Holiness, Pope Francis, published in late May 2015 an encyclical letter “Laudato si’” on the care of the planet. Here it is stated that “most of the paper we produce is thrown away and not recycled”.

Yet, sources from within the forest industry state that the global recycling rate stands at about 58% for paper and it is much higher in some countries. So here we have a mismatch of information.

http://w2.vatican.va/content/dam/francesco/pdf/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si_en.pdf






RecyclingYet another issue with recycling within the paper industry is that we talk a lot about “recycling” but what we actually do is rather…


Downcycling…downcycling, which means that the quality of the material, already after the first iteration, is significantly lower that when it was virgin. This issue is discussed already in the classic work “Cradle to Cradle” by McDonough and Braungart (2002). Now the question is if downcycling is the best we can do in the forest industry with the materials of today (paper) and tomorrow, or…


Cycling…maybe we could go over to cycling materials applying the science, technology, expertise and understanding of today.


Wouldn’t it be great if we could be able to say that the forest-based materials of today (paper, for example) as well as those of tomorrow are actually “100% recycled” instead of “recyclable”?

We believe that this is one exciting field for the future!


Do you have new ideas, comments, questions you would like to discuss with us?

We would love to hear from you! Please join our discussion group on LinkedIn.

Just send us an email or use the search field in LinkedIn and type “A Cellulose-Based Society”.

https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=8387874


Save the date

Report ReleaseMay 24th, 2016