A data mining approach to A data mining approach to developing the profiles of developing the profiles of

hotel customershotel customers

M964020028 M964020028 廖文柏廖文柏B934020004 B934020004 蔡郁槐蔡郁槐

9142026 9142026 陳建宏陳建宏

指導老師： 黃三益 教授指導老師： 黃三益 教授

1.background and motivation1.background and motivation

1.11.1 南韓觀光及飯店產業變化南韓觀光及飯店產業變化 近年來南韓的觀光旅遊業快速發展 近年來南韓的觀光旅遊業快速發展 觀光旅遊相關收入，在十年內成長了一倍 觀光旅遊相關收入，在十年內成長了一倍 新旅館快速增加 新旅館快速增加

原有旅館均積極的增加房間數 原有旅館均積極的增加房間數 過快的飯店房間供給量擴展過快的飯店房間供給量擴展 供過於求，競爭激烈 供過於求，競爭激烈

1.21.2 旅館業的競爭旅館業的競爭 旅館業生存的關鍵在於滿足顧客的需求 旅館業生存的關鍵在於滿足顧客的需求 關注於”有價值”的顧客 關注於”有價值”的顧客

常客常客 較願意付費使用服務的客人 較願意付費使用服務的客人

提高既有顧客的回流率 提高既有顧客的回流率 了解顧客消費的習慣及特性 了解顧客消費的習慣及特性 顧客關係管理顧客關係管理 (CRM)(CRM) 相關的問題 相關的問題

1.31.3 提升顧客滿意度提升顧客滿意度 顧客對一家飯店的滿意程度 顧客對一家飯店的滿意程度

房間的狀況房間的狀況 check in/out check in/out 速度速度 服務態度服務態度 價錢 價錢 等等其他等等其他

1.41.4 有效針對問題改善有效針對問題改善 光是盲目的提升品質是沒有效率的 光是盲目的提升品質是沒有效率的 要能了解要能了解

顧客的各種相關資訊顧客的各種相關資訊 客人的需要 客人的需要

對客人在意的項目優先做改善 對客人在意的項目優先做改善

1.51.5 提升飯店競爭力的重點提升飯店競爭力的重點

什麼樣的客人會在一次的光顧什麼樣的客人會在一次的光顧 什麼樣的客人容易轉向其他競爭者什麼樣的客人容易轉向其他競爭者 什麼樣的服務性質對於什麼樣的客人是相什麼樣的服務性質對於什麼樣的客人是相

對重要的對重要的 如何區隔有如何區隔有 // 非助於收益的客人非助於收益的客人 什麼類型的客人最符合目前飯店能提供的什麼類型的客人最符合目前飯店能提供的

服務能力服務能力

1.61.6 為何使用為何使用 data miningdata mining

使用使用 data miningdata mining 技術來探討以上問題的原技術來探討以上問題的原因，因為因，因為 data miningdata mining 可以可以 找出找出 hidden knowledgehidden knowledge 找出找出 unexpected patternsunexpected patterns 找出找出 new rulesnew rules

2.Data Set2.Data Set

Data CollectionData Collection

QuestionnaireQuestionnaire Target select from 11 hotels( Westin Target select from 11 hotels( Westin

ChosunChosun ，， Grand Grand IntercontinentalIntercontinental ，， HiltonHilton ，， Grand Grand HyattHyatt ，， Grand HyattGrand Hyatt…… ). ).

All the hotels have the same characters:All the hotels have the same characters: 1.in terms of price1.in terms of price 2.location2.location 3.services amenities3.services amenities

Questionnaire itemsQuestionnaire items DemographicDemographic

GenderGender AgeAge OccupationOccupation NationalityNationality Frequency of their hotel visitations Frequency of their hotel visitations the Purpose of their travel the Purpose of their travel Relative importance of services attributes to Relative importance of services attributes to

overall hotel service quality overall hotel service quality the level of customer satisfaction based the level of customer satisfaction based

on their serviceon their service

Questionnaire itemsQuestionnaire items

Non-DemographicNon-Demographic Service attributes critical to hotel Service attributes critical to hotel

service quality service quality courtesy of employees courtesy of employees prompt / smooth handling of customer prompt / smooth handling of customer

complaints complaints convenience of reservation convenience of reservation

Questionnaire TargetQuestionnaire Target

Skip out potential participantsSkip out potential participants Focus on those customer who had Focus on those customer who had

just checked out and were waiting in just checked out and were waiting in the lobby for a shuttle bus, or taxi.the lobby for a shuttle bus, or taxi.

No more than $5 financial incentiveNo more than $5 financial incentive Each hotel select 30 people to fill out Each hotel select 30 people to fill out

the questionnairethe questionnaire

FeedbackFeedback

281 return(85.15%)281 return(85.15%) 74% visited more than one of these 74% visited more than one of these

hotels at least once in the pasthotels at least once in the past 91.1% having stayed at one of these 91.1% having stayed at one of these

hotels for more than one nighthotels for more than one night

3.Research methodology3.Research methodology

Research instrumentResearch instrument

Traditionally, data collected from the Traditionally, data collected from the questionnaire survey were analyzed using questionnaire survey were analyzed using statistical techniquesstatistical techniques

although hypothesis testing may allow us although hypothesis testing may allow us to validate some intuitive premises, causal to validate some intuitive premises, causal inferences made by hypothesis testing inferences made by hypothesis testing may not be sufficient for us to accurately may not be sufficient for us to accurately predict behavioral patternspredict behavioral patterns

Data Mining ProcessData Mining Process

Step 1Step 1 ：資料的蒐集：資料的蒐集 (Data collection)(Data collection) Step 2Step 2 ：資料的格式化：資料的格式化 (Data formatting)(Data formatting) Step 3Step 3 ：規則的歸納：規則的歸納 (Rule induction)(Rule induction)

Data Mining StepsData Mining Steps

Step1Step1Data Data

collectioncollection

Step2Step2Data Data

formattingformatting

Step3Step3Rule Rule

inductioninduction

例如：年齡（ Age ）20 – 29 130 – 39 240 – 49 350 – 59 460 以上 5

例如：年齡（ Age ）20 – 29 130 – 39 240 – 49 350 – 59 460 以上 5

SPSS ClementineSPSS Clementine

KDnuggets 2005 KDnuggets 2005 年票選 年票選 DMDM 工具工具

Example: Example: 決策樹決策樹(Appendix 4)(Appendix 4)

4.If-then rules 4.If-then rules 結果整理結果整理

4.1.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.1.Summary of if-then rules for the hotel choicehotel choice

什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會傾向於什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會傾向於選擇哪家飯店 選擇哪家飯店

若符合若符合1.1. 非常滿意員工的服務態度非常滿意員工的服務態度2.2. 住宿目的是休閒旅遊住宿目的是休閒旅遊3.3. 有點或非常滿意飯店對於他再次光臨的設想程度有點或非常滿意飯店對於他再次光臨的設想程度 且若：非信用卡付費且若：非信用卡付費通常選擇通常選擇 Plaza hotel Plaza hotel 且若：信用卡付費且若：信用卡付費通常選擇通常選擇 Hyatt hotelHyatt hotel

4.2.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.2.Summary of if-then rules for the nationality of hotel guestsnationality of hotel guests

什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼樣的國家來的客人 樣的國家來的客人

若符合若符合1.1. 選擇兩張床的房型選擇兩張床的房型2.2. 住宿的目的是商務或會議住宿的目的是商務或會議 且若：顧客認為房內設施有重要性且若：顧客認為房內設施有重要性

　　　　　　通常是美國人通常是美國人 且若：顧客認為房內設施非常重要且若：顧客認為房內設施非常重要

　　　　　　通常是韓國人通常是韓國人

4.3.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.3.Summary of if-then rules for the occupations of hotel guestsoccupations of hotel guests

什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼樣工作職位 樣工作職位

若顧客是男性，且若顧客是男性，且 選擇選擇 AmigaAmiga 或或 Plaza hotelPlaza hotel

通常是企業家通常是企業家 選擇選擇 ChosunChosun ，， Coex Coex

InternationalInternational ，， HyattHyatt ，， Ritz CarltonRitz Carlton 或或Sheraton hotelSheraton hotel 通常是經理人通常是經理人

選擇選擇 Grand InternationalGrand International 或或 Hilton hotelHilton hotel 通常是專業工作者通常是專業工作者

4.4.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.4.Summary of if-then rules for the gender of hotel guestsgender of hotel guests

什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼什麼樣消費行為和特性的客人通常會是什麼性別 性別

如果顧客住宿的原因是休閒旅遊，且工作職位是如果顧客住宿的原因是休閒旅遊，且工作職位是經理人或政府工作經理人或政府工作通常顧客是男性通常顧客是男性

如果顧客住宿的原因是休閒旅遊，且工作職位是如果顧客住宿的原因是休閒旅遊，且工作職位是專業工作者，且認為房間的清潔是極度重要的專業工作者，且認為房間的清潔是極度重要的通常這樣的顧客是女性通常這樣的顧客是女性

4.5.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.5.Summary of if-then rules for the purpose of trippurpose of trip

If a customer uses a travelerIf a customer uses a traveler’’ check to check to pay for a hotel room charge, then the pay for a hotel room charge, then the customer is likely to be a customer is likely to be a business business travelertraveler

If a customer pays the hotel cash for a If a customer pays the hotel cash for a hotel room charge,hotel room charge,and the customer stays at the standard and the customer stays at the standard floorfloorthen the customer is likely to be a then the customer is likely to be a touristtourist

4.6.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.6.Summary of if-then rules for the age of hotel guestsage of hotel guests

If a customer is a manager,If a customer is a manager,then the customerthen the customer’’s age group in the s age group in the 30s30s(30-39 years old)(30-39 years old)

If a customer is an entrepreneur,If a customer is an entrepreneur,and the customer is somewhat or veryand the customer is somewhat or verysatisfied with the hotelsatisfied with the hotel’’s complimentary s complimentary itemsitems(free newspaper, tea, or coffee),(free newspaper, tea, or coffee),then the customerthen the customer’’s age group is in the s age group is in the 40s and 50s40s and 50s(40 (40 –– 59 years) 59 years)

4.7.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.7.Summary of if-then rules for the frequency of hotel visitationfrequency of hotel visitation

If a customer has visited the hotel If a customer has visited the hotel where he/she currently stays fours where he/she currently stays fours times,times,and the customer is in his/her 30s,and the customer is in his/her 30s,then the customer is likely to revisit then the customer is likely to revisit the samethe sameor a similar hotel or a similar hotel three to four timesthree to four times..

4.7.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.7.Summary of if-then rules for the frequency of hotel visitation(Cont.)frequency of hotel visitation(Cont.)

If a customers has visited the hotel If a customers has visited the hotel wherewherehe/she currently stays more than five he/she currently stays more than five times,times,and the customer is a female,and the customer is a female,then the customer is likely to revisit then the customer is likely to revisit the samethe sameor a similar hotel or a similar hotel more than tem more than tem timestimes..

4.8.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.8.Summary of if-then rules for the patronage of particular hotelpatronage of particular hotel

If a customer has stayed at the Plaza If a customer has stayed at the Plaza hotel forhotel formore than five nights,more than five nights,then the customer is likely revisit then the customer is likely revisit the samethe samehotel hotel more than five timesmore than five times

4.8.Summary of if-then rules for the 4.8.Summary of if-then rules for the patronage of particular hotel(Cont.)patronage of particular hotel(Cont.)

If a customer has stayed at the If a customer has stayed at the Chosun hotel for a business trip,Chosun hotel for a business trip,then the customer is likely to revisit then the customer is likely to revisit the samethe samehotel hotel at least four timesat least four times

9.Summary of if-then rules for the 9.Summary of if-then rules for the length of a hotel staylength of a hotel stay

例： Rule36(b) If 客戶選擇 standard floor of the hotel ， And 客戶比較喜歡雙人床， And 客戶是韓國人， Then 客戶可能會待兩晚

10.Summary of if-then rules for the 10.Summary of if-then rules for the payment optionpayment option

例： Rule40(b) If 客戶是因為辦公住房， And 客戶又是女的， And 客戶已經在旅遊機構瀏覽過 hotel 資訊

， Then 客戶可能會使用旅遊卡付費

11.Summary of if-then rules for the 11.Summary of if-then rules for the smoking/non-smoking preferencessmoking/non-smoking preferences

例： Rule47 if 客戶是因為 business 住房， And 客戶選擇雙人床， And 客戶 makes a direct reservation of

hotel ， And 客戶滿意房間的清潔度， Then 客戶可能會選擇 non-smoking room

5.Conclusions5.Conclusions

Conclusion 1Conclusion 1

客戶的旅遊目的通常會影響他們選擇下榻哪間 hotel 的抉擇。

例如：如果 hotel 在房間內可以提供辦公桌，那他們將會比其他業者贏得更多US 國籍的客戶。因為調查顯示US 客戶都是辦公居多，而日本客戶通常都是為了旅遊而來。

Conclusion 2Conclusion 2

30s 的客戶或是 40s 的女性客戶通常下次選擇住同家的 hotel 的機率很高。

而問卷調查也顯示，似乎Plaza 、 Chosun 、 Hilton 、 Hyatt、 Amiga 已經建立屬於自己的客戶型態，這些客戶都具有一定的忠誠度。

最有可能的解釋是，這些店家其實在services attributes調查滿意度上，其實都是鰲首。所以店家千萬不可輕忽各項服務所帶給客戶的印象。

Conclusion 3Conclusion 3

作者發現這項問卷有些脈絡可循，例如男性客戶的職位職稱，對於他們選擇的 hotel似乎有連帶關係。

例如客戶今天是經理職位可能會選擇 Chosun、 Coex 等 hotel；若他身份是醫生或是律師可能會選擇 Hilton。這方面顯示，以上所提到的這些 hotel 其實對於他們的客戶會去做適當的服務區別，例如 Coex 會提供小白球運動讓他的客戶可以聚在一起聊天以及一邊運動。

Conclusion 4Conclusion 4

courtesy of employees之於客戶的觀感，可以從很多方面去做考量

例如待客之道、提供信用卡 charge 服務、或是各類運動器材與品質滿意度調查。Hilton 、 Hyatt 、 Plaza 這三家服務滿意度深受客戶推崇的 hotel ，其實已經建立自己的忠誠客戶。

Conclusion

根據 Data mining 的結果發現，作者認為客戶今天的特徵可能會影響他們選擇hotel 的決定，而整體性來看會比單一特徵來看具有更象徵性。

所以要制定成功具有競爭性的客戶回流策略，作者認為不僅要將客戶的特徵考慮進去， hotel 整體的服務表現也當然需要高度的重視。

6.Critics6.Critics

6.1 sample 太少 「最適樣本數」的觀念包括以下 3 項：

１、不能太少 ２、不必太多 ３、要有可行性

本篇 paper 作者單只做了 281 份問卷調查就歸納了許多 rules ，但是以Appendix4 來看，似乎沒法交代如果今天受訪者是別的職業該在該 tree 中如何判定其性別。

6.2 No model Evaluation

一個model由 training samples 建立出來後，必須再用 testing samples去評估這個model錯誤率，進而調整修改其model。

可是在本篇中，作者只單純提到自己所做的 281份問卷調查中，有百分之幾的統計量 support 他的 rule ，卻沒有提到他將這套 model導入真正市場運作情況如何。

6.3 Business problem Mining Problem 有瑕疵

以整體獲利性來說，旅遊業雖有許多收入來自於既有的客戶，但潛在客戶亦不可忽略的。

本篇的 Data collection時候，卻將潛在客戶忽略掉，只著重既有客戶，對於本篇作者著重在客戶的回流率策略上可能有幫助；但是對於整個大環境獲利，擬定競爭策略有待商確。

Thanks for your listening…Thanks for your listening…