Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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A Hydrologic Modeling System for Coastal Environments

R. L. Kolar (OU) et al.

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Project Overview• Develop comprehensive, physics-based model for coastal

flooding that incorporates the dominant physical processes: wind, waves, tides, surge, rainfall/runoff (“total water level”).

• Our work focuses on hydrologic modeling and coupling to ADCIRC.

• High spatial and temporal resolution. • Modes of use: Forecasting & Planning.• Research Partners: NOAA-NSSL, NRL-Stennis

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Relevance to DHS S&T Mission• 50% of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a

coastline.• Coastal flooding due to natural hazards is a serious

economic and social threat (exacerbated with sea level rise), e.g., Sandy.

• DHS Mission 5, “Ensuring Resilience to Disasters,” and its four goals - mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery – specifically targets this threat.

• Coastal inundation models are effective tools for coastal planning and disaster mitigation/recovery.

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Technical Approach–STORM Model System

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Progress: Years 1-4 focused on NC

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Hurricane Irene Performance

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Progress: Year 5 – Pearl River

Hydrology - RDHM:• Data sets (soil, DEM, land use, channels)• Calibration/validation data• Running (as of last week!)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Hydraulics - ADCIRC:• ISAAC ASGS grid• Tie in Pearl River Grid• Handoff points

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Summary of Year 5 ProgressYear Milestones

• Port STORM modeling system to Pearl River basin

• Partial-wet element algorithm for ADCIRC

• Synthetic storms

Progress to Date

• (Previous slides)

• Code complete; debugging and testing.

• Data collected, parametric model identified.

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Leveraging Resources• Four Pending Proposals:

– $3M NSF Hazards SEES (UD, UNC, SUNY, OU)– $5.1M NOAA Sandy Supplemental Appropriation

(NSSL, CIMMS, OU, NWS, OHD)– $535K NSF Computational and Data-Enabled

Science and Engineering (OU)– $30K CIMMS Student Fellowship (OU)

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Translation/End Users/Collaborators

Dr. Elizabeth SmytheRegulatory Manager St. Tammany Parish Government

Dr. Suzanne Van CootenHydrologist in ChargeLower Mississippi RFC

“We do not produce hydrologic guidance for locations south of Pearl River as we have not implemented the hydrodynamic models necessary to simulate tidal circulation and storm surge, which impact water levels in the Pearl River estuary. This service gap means we cannot provide WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge water level simulations to support their network of decision makers responsible for eastern St. Tammany Parish communities, (i.e. Slidell), critical regional infrastructure (i.e. Stennis Space Center), and/or evacuation routes.”

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Products• Web portals: CERA, CI-FLOW• Papers: Irene (Cont. Shelf

Research), River BC’s (Estuarine and Coastal Modeling), Partial-wet cells in GWCE (IJNMF)

• Professional presentations: ECM, CMWR, AMS, ADCIRC Workshop, NOAA Briefings

Research Lead The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHC-R 5th Annual Meeting January 31-February 1, 2013

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Looking Forward• Calibration, validation, and skill assessment

(ISAAC) of STORM for Pearl River/Northern Gulf• STORM Model sensitivity studies• Translate to end-users/partners• Adjust output products based on end-user

feedback• Algorithmic improvements• Skill assessment of synthetic rainfall