a resposta da dinâmica sedimentar dos rios xingu e tapajós às...
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A resposta da dinâmica sedimentar dos rios Xingu e Tapajós às mudanças climáticas e barragens de usinas
hidrelétricas: riscos para conservação da biodiversidade e produção de energia na Amazônia
Processo 2016/02656-9
Coordenador: André Oliveira Sawakuchi (IGc-USP)[email protected]
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The Xingu and Tapajós Rivers
Mazoca (2017)
Tapajós
Xingu
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Photos: Leandro Sousa and Mark Sabaj
High diversity of lithophilic andrheophilic fishes
The largest tropical-rapidsecosystem
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Hydropower dams in the Amazon
Latrubesse et al. (2017 – Nature)
São Luiz do Tapajós ~6,350 MWBelo Monte ~11,230 MW
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Water balance projections (2070-2099) Xingu and Tapajós watersheds-35% Runoff
Sorribas et al. (2016 – Climatic Change)
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Aquatic and flooding forest ecosystems
Changes in water column andsubstrates
Habitat loss and fragmentation
Fluvial system
Water balance Sedimentation/erosion dynamics
Climate and anthropogenic changes
Precipitation Hydropower dams
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Approach: from past to present and future
Millenial tomultidecadalhydroclimate andlandscape changes
Variability of themodern system
Future scenarios
Middle and Late HoloceneLast 7,000 years
1970-2018
2018-2100
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Results – Sept 2017 – Jun 2018 (Xingu)
Imagem: Juan Doblas (ISA)
Volta Grande do XinguUHE Belo Monte
Author: Marcelo Camargo (2016)
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Millenial changes in hydroclimate
Xin
gu
Amazon
Sediment core
Bertassoli et al. (in prep.)
Precip in E Amazon (Wang et al., 2017 – Nature)
Water/sediment discharge
Decreasing water discharge since 2 kaMultidecadal abrupt changes in precip and water discharge
Slightly acid shallow water, lownutrients concentration (Staurosira,
Stauroneis, Staurosirella, Pinnularia, Gomphonema)
Years BP
Turbulent water(Aulacoseira)
Diatom analysisSamantha Borges (DR)Krysna Ferreira (MS)
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Hydroclimate and landscapechanges
Flooding forest areas expanded after 5 kaHigh rate of expansion after 1 ka in the Xingu
OSL and 14C ages of flooding forest substrates in Amazon
Pupim et al. (in prep.)
10 km
Terra FirmeIgapó
Terra Firme
1.1±0.1 ka – present
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Hydroclimate and vegetationchanges
Concentration (grains/cm3)
Core XC06
Pollen and charcoal analyses – Rudney Santos (DR)
Charcoal in sediments
Pollens and spores
• Cecropia, a successional forest indicator, is presentin expressive quantities, suggesting that the vegetation has not reached a climax stage since the Mid Holocene
• Mauritia flexuosa (Buriti palm) may be related to Late Holocene anthropogenic action
• Coarser charcoal particlessuggest increase of local firesduring the Late Holocene
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Beach
River bed
Sites for P. expansa nesting (Tartaruga-da-Amazônia)
Pimental Dam
• Coarse sand (0.5-1.0 mm) is the major material for beach development• Sand sources are located upstream the dams• Upstream trapping of coarse sand reduce beach resilience
Luana Ferreira de Jesus (MS)
Projection: habitat loss (P. expansa)
After UHE Belo Monte
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Lithophilic fish – Baryancistrus xanthellus
Magalhães et al. (in prep.)
• Average suspended sed rate at the Xingu ria = 0.35 cm/year(Bertassoli et al., 2017)
Population expansionstarted at 200 ka
Shift from bedrock to mudsubstrates (~80 km) in decadaltimescale
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Carbon balance under the UHE Belo Monte
CO2 and CH4 sources
Flooded vegetation(forest and pasture)
Deposition of organicsediments
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Rate of carbon accumulationFrom 84 g m-2 yr-1 to 169 g m-2 yr-1
TOC = 2-3%
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• Higher production of CH4 and CO2 in flooded pasture soils
• Emissions concentrated in the first years after damming
Sawakuchi, H.O. et al. (in prep.)
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The Xingu under future climate
Simulation of future waterdischarge at Belo Monte
Camargo et al. (in prep.)
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• Higher frequency of droughts for the period 2017-2045 (CMIP5/IPCC, RCP 8.5 scenario);
• Future water discharge 28% lower than the observed during1990-2015
Camargo et al. (in prep.)
Monthly precip anomalies 2017-2045 (mm)
Present (1990-2015) and future (2017-204) water discharge (m3/s)
Energy generation: lower thanprojected?
Energy generation versus wateravailable for downstreamecosystems
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Obrigado!
...Tapajós
Xingu...