ภาคผนวก - thaiftathaifta.com/trade/study/theu_book1_appch5.pdf15 coal coal: mining and...

โครงการศกึษาแนวทางการเจรจา และผลกระทบของการจดัทาํความตกลงการคา้เสรไีทยกบัสหภาพยุโรป

ผ.231/บทที' 3 การคา้สนิคา้

ภาคผนวก

บทที� 5

ผลกระทบของการจดัทาํความตกลงการค้าเสรี ไทย-สหภาพยโุรป



ตารางที� ผ.5.1: GTAP 57 sectors

Number Code Description

1 Paddy rice Paddy Rice: rice, husked and unhusked

2 Wheat Wheat: wheat and meslin

3 Cereal grains nec Other Grains: maize (corn), barley, rye, oats, other cereals

4 Vegetables, fruit, nuts Veg & Fruit: vegetables, fruitvegetables, fruit and nuts, potatoes, cassava, truffles,

5 Oil seeds Oil Seeds: oil seeds and oleaginous fruit; soy beans, copra

6 Sugar cane, sugar beet Cane & Beet: sugar cane and sugar beet

7 Plant-based fibers Plant Fibres: cotton, flax, hemp, sisal and other raw vegetable materials used in textiles

8

Crops nec

Other Crops: live plants; cut flowers and flower buds; flower seeds and fruit seeds; vegetable seeds, beverage and spice crops, unmanufactured

tobacco, cereal straw and husks, unprepared, whether or not chopped, ground, pressed or in the form of pellets; swedes, mangolds, fodder

roots, hay, lucerne (alfalfa), clover, sainfoin, forage kale, lupines, vetches and similar forage products, whether or not in the form of pellets,

plants and parts of plants used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy, or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, sugar beet seed and seeds

of forage plants, other raw vegetable materials

9

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats,

horses

Cattle: cattle, sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules, and hinnies; and semen thereof

10

Animal products nec

Other Animal Products: swine, poultry and other live animals; eggs, in shell (fresh or cooked), natural honey, snails (fresh or preserved) except

sea snails; frogs’ legs, edible products of animal origin n.e.c., hides, skins and furskins, raw , insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined

or coloured

11 Raw milk Raw milk

12 Wool, silk-worm cocoons Wool: wool, silk, and other raw animal materials used in textile

13 Forestry Forestry: forestry, logging and related service activities

14 Fishing Fishing: hunting, trapping and game propagation including related service activities, fishing, fish farms; service activities incidental to fishing

15 Coal Coal: mining and agglomeration of hard coal, lignite and peat

16 Oil Oil: extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (part), service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying (part)

17 Gas Gas: extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas (part), service activities incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying (part)

18 Minerals nec Other Mining: mining of metal ores, uranium, gems. other mining and quarrying

19

Bovine meat products

Cattle Meat: fresh or chilled meat and edible offal of cattle, sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules, and hinnies. raw fats or grease from any animal

or bird.

20

Meat products nec

Other Meat: pig meat and offal. preserves and preparations of meat, meat offal or blood, flours, meals and pellets of meat or inedible meat

offal; greaves




21

Vegetable oils and fats

Vegetable Oils: crude and refined oils of soya-bean, maize (corn),olive, sesame, ground-nut, olive, sunflower-seed, safflower, cotton-seed, rape,

colza and canola, mustard, coconut palm, palm kernel, castor, tung jojoba, babassu and linseed, perhaps partly or wholly hydrogenated,inter-

esterified, re-esterified or elaidinised. Also margarine and similar preparations, animal or vegetable waxes, fats and oils and their fractions,

cotton linters, oil-cake and other solid residues resulting from the extraction of vegetable fats or oils; flours and meals of oil seeds or oleaginous

fruits, except those of mustard; degras and other residues resulting from the treatment of fatty substances or animal or vegetable waxes.

22 Dairy products Milk: dairy products

23 Processed rice Processed Rice: rice, semi- or wholly milled

24 Sugar Sugar

25

Food products nec

Other Food: prepared and preserved fish or vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable juices, prepared and preserved fruit and nuts, all cereal flours,

groats, meal and pellets of wheat, cereal groats, meal and pellets n.e.c., other cereal grain products (including corn flakes), other vegetable

flours and meals, mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers’ wares, starches and starch products; sugars and sugar syrups n.e.c.,

preparations used in animal feeding, bakery products, cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery, macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar

farinaceous products, food products n.e.c.

26 Beverages and tobacco products Beverages and Tobacco products

27 Textiles Textiles: textiles and man-made fibres

28 Wearing apparel Wearing Apparel: Clothing, dressing and dyeing of fur

29 Leather products Leather: tanning and dressing of leather; luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear

30 Wood products Lumber: wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture; articles of straw and plaiting materials

31 Paper products, publishing Paper & Paper Products: includes publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media

32 Petroleum, coal products Petroleum & Coke: coke oven products, refined petroleum products, processing of nuclear fuel

33

Chemical, rubber, plastic

products

Chemical Rubber Products: basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and plastics products

34 Mineral products nec Non-Metallic Minerals: cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete

35 Ferrous metals Iron & Steel: basic production and casting

36 Metals nec Non-Ferrous Metals: production and casting of copper, aluminium, zinc, lead, gold, and silver

37 Metal products Fabricated Metal Products: Sheet metal products, but not machinery and equipment

38 Motor vehicles and parts Motor Vehicles: cars, lorries, trailers and semi-trailers

39 Transport equipment nec Other Transport Equipment: Manufacture of other transport equipment

40 Electronic equipment Electronic Equipment: office, accounting and computing machinery, radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus




41 Machinery and equipment nec Other Machinery & Equipment: electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c., medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks

42 Manufactures nec Other Manufacturing: includes recycling

43 Electricity Electricity: production, collection and distribution

44 Gas manufacture, distribution Gas Distribution: distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and hot water supply

45 Water Water: collection, purification and distribution

46 Construction Construction: building houses factories offices and roads

47

Trade

Trade: all retail sales; wholesale trade and commission trade; hotels and restaurants; repairs of motor vehicles and personal and household

goods; retail sale of automotive fuel

48 Transport nec Other Transport: road, rail ; pipelines, auxiliary transport activities; travel agencies

49 Water transport Water transport

50 Air transport Air transport

51 Communication Communications: post and telecommunications

52 Financial services nec Other Financial Intermediation: includes auxiliary activities but not insurance and pension funding (see next)

53 Insurance Insurance: includes pension funding, except compulsory social security

54 Business services nec Other Business Services: real estate, renting and business activities

55 Recreational and other services

Recreation & Other Services: recreational, cultural and sporting activities, other service activities; private households with employed persons

(servants)

56

Public Administration, Defense,

Education, Health

Other Services (Government): public administration and defense; compulsory social security, education, health and social work, sewage and

refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities, activities of membership organizations n.e.c., extra-territorial organizations and bodies

57 Dwellings Dwellings: ownership of dwellings (imputed rents of houses occupied by owners)

Source: GTAP website (https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/contribute/detailedsector.asp) Note: nec = Not Elsewhere Classified.



ตารางที� ผ.5.2: EU-FTA

RTA/FTA

Date of entry into force

EU FTA Partners

EC – Albania 1-Dec-2006 Albania

EC – Algeria 1-Sep-2005 Algeria

EC – Andorra 1-Jul-1991 Andorra

EC - Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-Jul-2008 Bosnia and Herzegovina.

EC - CARIFORUM States EPA

(including goods and services)

1-Nov-2008

Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize Dominica

Dominican Republic Grenada Guyana Jamaica Saint Kitts and

Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname

Trinidad and Tobago.

EC – Chile (including goods and services) 1-Feb-2003 Chile.

EC - Côte d'Ivoire 1-Jan-2009 Côte d'Ivoire.

EC – Croatia 1-Mar-2002 Croatia.

EC – Egypt 1-Jun-2004 Egypt.

EC - Faroe Islands 1-Jan-1997 Faeroe Islands.

EC - Macedonia 1-Jun-2001 Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

EC – Iceland 1-Apr-1973 Iceland.

EC – Israel 1-Jun-2000 Israel.

EC – Jordan 1-May-2002 Jordan.

EC – Lebanon 1-Mar-2003 Lebanon.

EC - Mexico(including goods and services) 1-Jul-2000 Mexico.

EC – Montenegro 1-Jan-2008 Montenegro.

EC – Morocco 1-Mar-2000 Morocco.

EC – Norway 1-Jul-1973 Norway.

EC – Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT)

1-Jan-1971

Anguilla, Aruba, British Indian Ocean Territory Cayman Islands

Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) French Polynesia French

Southern Territories Greenland Mayotte Montserrat

Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia Pitcairn Saint Helena Saint

Pierre and Miquelon South Georgia and the South Sandwich

Islands Turks and Caicos Islands Virgin Islands British Wallis

and Futuna Islands.

EC - Palestinian Authority 1-Jul-1997 The Palestinian Authority of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

EC - South Africa 1-Jan-2000 South Africa.

EC - Switzerland – Liechtenstein 1-Jan-1973 Liechtenstein, Switzerland.

EC – Syria 1-Jul-1977 Syrian Arab Republic.

EC – Tunisia 1-Mar-1998 Tunisia.

EC – Turkey 1-Jan-1996 Turkey.

EU-European Economic Area (EEA) (Services) 1-Jan-1994 Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway.

Source: Based on the WTO RTA database, accessed on July 1, 2009.



ตารางที� ผ.5.3.a: Tariffs Structure of Commodity Sectors: EU Import Tariffs on its Partner’s Exports

(percent)

Description Thailand EU RTA partners

Paddy rice 81.20 39.32

Wheat 0.00 3.00

Cereal grains nec 30.94 8.86

Vegetables, fruit, nuts 6.45 4.47

Oil seeds 0.00 0.12

Sugar cane, sugar beet 0.00 2.95

Plant-based fibers 0.00 0.00

Crops nec 7.00 0.94

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.29 0.36

Animal products nec 1.51 2.18

Raw milk 0.00 0.00

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 0.00 0.00

Forestry 0.45 0.05

Fishing 5.65 3.83

Coal 0.00 0.00

Oil 0.00 0.00

Gas 0.00 0.00

Minerals nec 0.03 0.01

Bovine meat products 9.35 28.61

Meat products nec 22.51 13.95

Vegetable oils and fats 3.54 37.65

Dairy products 56.67 39.42

Processed rice 134.82 56.77

Sugar 46.93 171.95

Food products nec 19.58 4.55

Beverages and tobacco products 21.12 8.28

Textiles 7.51 0.49

Wearing apparel 8.83 0.20

Leather products 10.03 0.09

Wood products 0.07 0.10

Paper products, publishing 0.01 0.08

Petroleum, coal products 0.00 0.85

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 2.16 0.24

Mineral products nec 2.56 0.21

Ferrous metals 0.00 0.32

Metals nec 0.52 0.12

Metal products 0.42 0.17

Motor vehicles and parts 7.94 0.73

Transport equipment nec 1.20 0.16

Electronic equipment 1.94 0.20

Machinery and equipment nec 0.25 0.07

Manufactures nec 1.54 0.05

Source: GTAP data set version 7



ตารางที� ผ.5.3.b: Tariffs Structure of Commodity Sectors: Thailand Import Tariffs on its Partner’s Exports (percent)

Sectors EU

Paddy rice 41.54

Wheat 0

Cereal grains nec 22.24

Vegetables, fruit, nuts 51.93

Oil seeds 22.73

Sugar cane, sugar beet 0

Plant-based fibers 4.64

Crops nec 36.48

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 6.64

Animal products nec 6.02

Raw milk 0

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 0.4

Forestry 9.06

Fishing 46.18

Coal 0.55

Oil 0

Gas 0

Minerals nec 0.49

Bovine meat products 47.95

Meat products nec 30.12

Vegetable oils and fats 25.64

Dairy products 8.94

Processed rice 22.47

Sugar 30.6

Food products nec 27.09

Beverages and tobacco products 49.34

Textiles 22.47

Wearing apparel 38.68

Leather products 15.55

Wood products 17.65

Paper products, publishing 23.33

Petroleum, coal products 1.03

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 12.49

Mineral products nec 14.93

Ferrous metals 9.17

Metals nec 4.9

Metal products 17.93

Motor vehicles and parts 41.38

Transport equipment nec 3.03

Electronic equipment 5.55

Machinery and equipment nec 7.36

Manufactures nec 8.71

Source: GTAP data set version 7



ตารางที� ผ.5.4: Direct price or cost impacts of Thailand and EU trade and regulatory restrictions in services

(Percent)

Sectors Policy measure

Thailand EU-27

via

markup%

via

costs%

via

markup%

via

costs%

Air transport

Air passenger transport

( Foreign and Domestic providers) 19.37 8.48

Restriction category

1.Designation requirement

2.Capaity regulation

3. Price regulation

4. Non-scheduled service

Financial services Banking (Foreign providers) 11.27 1.29

Restrictions on commercial presence

1.Licensing

2.Direct investment

3.No new licenses and joint arrangements,

4.Movement of people (Permanent)

Other Restrictions

1.Raising funds by banks

2.Lending funds by banks

3.Other business of banks (Insurance and

Securities service)

4.Expanding operations (Street branches,

Offices and ATMs)

5.Movement of people (Temporary)

6.Movement of people (Board of directors)

Trade

Distribution service

(Foreign providers)

4.27

3.53

Barriers to establishment

1. Restrictions on commercial land

2. Direct investment

3. Restrictions on large-scale stores

4. Factors affecting investment

5. Factors affecting local establishment

6. Movement of people (Permanent)

Barriers to ongoing operations

1. Wholesale import licensing

2. Promotion of retail products

3. State Monopolies (Product exclusions)

4. Protection of intellectual property right

5. Factors affecting local establishment

6. Movement of people (Temporary)



Sectors Policy measure

Thailand EU-27

via

markup%

via

costs%

via

markup%

via

costs%

Electricity

Electricity generation

( Foreign and Domestic providers)

16.35

11.98


1. Absence of unbundling

2. Absence of third party access

3. Absence of wholesale pool

Sea transport

Maritime

(Foreign and Domestic providers)

4.85

2.63


1. Cargo handling restriction index

2. Mandatory services index

3. Prices fixed agreement

4. Coop agreement

5. Port efficient

6.Lack of organized crime

Business services

nec.

Professions-Engineering

(Foreign providers)

4.04

5.09

Communication

Telecommunication mobile line

(Foreign providers)

92.34

6.09


1. Restrictions on interconnection

2. Resale

3. Equity

4. Competition

Source: Compiled from Dee (2005)



ตารางที� ผ.5.5: Air transport

Rank Countries Price impact (%)

Finland 3.98

2 Portugal 4.62

3 Norway 4.88

4 Iran 5.27

5 Austria 6.81

6 Denmark 7.54

7 Sweden 7.57

8 Greece 7.59

9 Italy 8.23

10 United Kingdom 8.39

EU27 8.48

11 Germany 9.34

12 Belgium 9.61

13 USA 10.05

14 France 10.17

15 Spain 11.40

16 Turkey 12.12

17 Switzerland 13.85

18 Uruguay 13.88

19 Chile 14.17

20 Zambia 14.51

21 Morocco 14.76

22 Canada 14.80

23 Australia 14.89

24 Netherlands 15.01

25 Russian Federation 15.75

26 Colombia 15.84

27 Viet Nam 15.93

28 New Zealand 16.11

29 Venezuela 16.16

30 Singapore 17.00

31 Brazil 17.03

32 Hong Kong 17.38

33 China 17.65

34 Peru 18.22

35 Japan 18.39

36 Thailand 19.37

37 Argentina 19.96

38 Korea 20.97

39 Mexico 21.11

40 Indonesia 21.54

Source: Compiled from Dee (2005).



ตารางที� ผ.5.6: Financial services


1 Japan 0.12

2 USA 0.12

3 Argentina 0.50

4 Austria 0.50

5 Belgium 0.50

6 Canada 0.50

7 Denmark 0.50

8 Finland 0.50

9 France 0.50

10 Germany 0.50

11 Greece 0.50

12 Iran 0.50

13 Italy 0.50

14 Netherlands 0.50

15 New Zealand 0.50

16 Peru 0.50

17 Portugal 0.50

18 Spain 0.50

19 Sweden 0.50


21 Switzerland 0.91

EU27 1.29

22 Hong Kong 1.93

23 Albania 2.42

24 Croatia 2.55

25 Estonia 2.55

26 Macedonia (the former Yugoslav Rep. of) 2.74

27 Moldova, Rep.of 2.74

28 Bulgaria 2.94

29 Lithuania 2.94

30 Australia 3.53

31 Zambia 4.28

32 Serbia and Montenegro 4.90

33 Mexico 5.74

34 South Africa 6.70

35 Venezuela 6.70

36 Latvia 7.06


38 Chile 7.78

39 China 7.78

40 Colombia 8.64

41 Thailand 11.27




ตารางที� ผ.5.7: Trade


1 Hong Kong 0.00

2 Morocco 0.00

3 Singapore 0.00

4 Argentina 0.41

5 Peru 0.41

6 South Africa 0.41

7 Australia 0.53

8 Japan 0.65

9 New Zealand 0.74

10 Uruguay 0.74

11 Colombia 1.07

12 Zambia 1.15

13 Chile 1.28

14 Brazil 1.83

15 Mexico 1.84

16 USA 2.22


18 India 2.51

19 Austria 2.65

20 Iran 2.65

21 Netherlands 2.65

22 Venezuela 2.88

23 Canada 2.99

24 Denmark 2.99

25 Finland 2.99

26 Portugal 2.99

27 Sweden 3.11

28 Germany 3.16

29 Spain 3.22

EU27 3.53

30 Indonesia 3.81


32 Thailand 4.27

33 Turkey 4.27

34 Greece 4.57

35 Belgium 5.04

36 France 5.04

37 Italy 5.04

38 Switzerland 5.29

39 Korea 5.83

40 Philippines 6.62




ตารางที� ผ.5.8: Electricity


1 Argentina 0

2 Australia 0

3 Chile 0

4 Finland 0

5 New Zealand 0

6 Norway 0

7 Peru 0

8 Sweden 0

9 United Kingdom 0

10 USA 7.98

11 Germany 8.84

12 Denmark 9.05

13 Canada 9.98

14 Spain 10.21

15 Japan 10.62

16 Morocco 11.34

EU27 11.98

17 Hungary 13.55

18 Poland 13.87

19 Czech Republic 13.9

20 Ireland 14.16

21 Austria 14.63

22 Slovakia 15.09

23 Luxembourg 15.35

24 Belgium 15.37

25 Korea 15.41

26 Netherlands 15.5

27 Hong Kong 15.59

28 Singapore 15.62


30 France 15.98

31 Taiwan 16.07

32 Thailand 16.35

33 Greece 16.63

34 Malaysia 16.65

35 Brazil 16.67

36 Indonesia 16.79


38 Italy 17.1

39 India 17.15

40 China 17.16




ตารางที� ผ.5.9: Sea transport


1 Australia 0

2 Brunei Darussalam 0

3 Canada 0

4 Denmark 0

5 Finland 0

6 France 0

7 Portugal 0

8 Singapore 0

9 Sweden 0

10 United Kingdom 0

11 New Zealand 0.08

12 Spain 0.23

13 Chile 0.31

14 Germany 0.38

15 Ghana 0.56

16 Nigeria 0.56

17 Malaysia 1.06

18 Belgium 1.13

19 Mauritius 1.66

20 Greece 1.74

21 Hong Kong 1.84

22 Romania 1.98

23 USA 2.00

24 Korea 2.48

25 Netherlands 2.53

EU27 2.63

26 Japan 2.64

27 Zambia 2.67

28 Ireland 2.75

29 Viet Nam 3.02

30 Turkey 3.08

31 Egypt 4.13

32 Argentina 4.39

33 Taiwan 4.48

34 China 4.62


36 Bolivia 4.78

37 Thailand 4.85

38 Slovakia 4.87

39 India 5.06

40 Hungary 5.46




ตารางที� ผ.5.10: Business services nec.


1 Belgium 0.51

2 Ireland 0.51

3 Zambia 0.72

4 Denmark 1.06

5 France 1.20

6 Morocco 1.62

7 Finland 2.06


9 Viet Nam 2.56


11 Australia 2.71

12 Netherlands 3.62


14 India 3.66

15 Brazil 3.89

16 Luxembourg 3.89

17 Thailand 4.04

18 Singapore 4.31

19 Hong Kong 4.35

20 Korea 4.37

EU27 5.09

21 Cambodia 5.29

22 Argentina 5.63

23 Italy 5.66

24 Switzerland 5.69

25 Philippines 5.75

26 Japan 5.79

27 Sweden 6.10

28 United States of America 6.62

29 Greece 7.11

30 New Zealand 7.25

31 Spain 7.93

32 Germany 8.75

33 Indonesia 9.11

34 Chile 9.24

35 Malaysia 9.83

36 Portugal 11.58

37 Mexico 12.73

38 Turkey 13.14

39 Austria 13.89




ตารางที� ผ. 5.11: Communication


1 Argentina 0

2 Chile 0

3 Finland 0

4 Hong Kong 0

5 Lithuania 0

6 United Kingdom 0

7 USA 0

8 Australia 0.20

9 Estonia 0.22

10 Japan 0.25

11 Netherlands 0.47

12 Portugal 0.56

13 Germany 0.71

14 Denmark 0.81

15 Austria 0.97

16 Sweden 0.97

17 Zimbabwe 1.03

18 Luxembourg 1.28

19 New Zealand 1.43

20 Norway 1.49

21 Brazil 1.54

22 Greece 1.68

23 Israel 1.80

24 Iceland 1.87

25 Italy 1.94


27 Switzerland 2.20

28 Belgium 2.34

29 Singapore 2.62

30 Latvia 2.69

31 Spain 3.30

32 Canada 3.46

33 France 3.84

34 Bulgaria 3.93

35 Malaysia 4.11


37 Hungary 4.42

EU27 6.09

38 Ireland 6.14

39 Romania 6.71

40 Cote d'Ivoire 6.99

87 Thailand 92.34




ตารางที� ผ.5.12: Macroeconomic Impacts on Thailand’s economy

(เปลี'ยนแปลง)

Macroeconomic Impacts Scenario 1 Scenario

2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5

GDP (Percent) -0.36 -0.41 2.32 2.83 2.85 Trade Balance ($US million) 405.69 513.03 -6941.39 -6094.87 -6074.47 Thailand Imports Value (Percent) -0.3 -0.4 5.37 5.5 5.67 EU-27 Imports Value (Percent) 1.00 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.09 Terms of Trade (Percent) -0.17 -0.2 1.40 2.17 2.34 Welfare: Equivalent Variation ($US million) -202.15 -250.46 1590.25 2477.17 2756.76 contribution from -Allocative Efficiency ($US million) -15.4 -34.35 45.16 55.54 95.6 -Terms of Trade ($US million) -229.83 -263.36 1649.25 2515.67 2685.03 Allocative Efficiency ($US million) -Production tax 8.69 2.84 -79.93 -66.3 -42.39 -Input tax 4.04 4.15 -18.88 -21.69 -18.74 -Consumption tax -3.01 -3.42 20.82 29.09 31.75 -Export tax 1.52 1.47 33.76 28.38 32.29 -Import tax -26.73 -39.46 89.23 86.4 92.52 Ratio of Return to Primary Factor to CPI (Percent) -Land -1.26 -0.51 -0.02 21.34 21.83 -Unskilled labor -0.13 -0.17 2.54 2.86 3.17 -Skilled labor -0.05 -0.11 2.00 1.92 2.18 -Capital -0.09 -0.16 2.72 2.29 2.53 Ratio of Taxes to Income (Change) -Ratio of Private Consumption Tax to Income 0.00003 0.00002 -0.0001 -0.00011 -0.000092 -Ratio of Import Tax to Income -0.00005 -0.00009 -0.01719 -0.017594 -0.017562 -Ratio of Income Tax to Income 0.00002 0.00003 0.00075 0.000648 0.000635 -Ratio of Total Taxes to Income 0.00056 0.00051 -0.01928 -0.021047 -0.020989

Source: Authors’ simulation



(เปลี'ยนแปลง) Scenario 6 Scenario 7

GDP (Percent) 3.01 3.05 Trade Balance ($US million) 644 653 Thailand Imports Value (Percent) 6.92 7.09 EU-27 Imports Value (Percent) 0.13 0.13 Terms of Trade (Percent) 0.87 1.08 Welfare: Equivalent Variation ($US million) 3,970 4,266 contribution from -Allocative Efficiency ($US million) 901 939 -Terms of Trade ($US million) 1,020 1,244 Allocative Efficiency ($US million) -Production tax 666 692 -Input tax 47 51 -Consumption tax 40 43 -Export tax 47 46 -Import tax 102 109 Ratio of Return to Primary Factor to CPI (Percent) -Land 31.41 31.95 -Unskilled labor 4.24 4.57 -Skilled labor 3.36 3.65 -Capital -0.70 -0.43 Ratio of Taxes to Income (Change) -Ratio of Private Consumption Tax to Income -0.00001 0.00001 -Ratio of Import Tax to Income -0.01707 -0.01704 -Ratio of Income Tax to Income 0.00114 0.00113 -Ratio of Total Taxes to Income -0.01694 -0.01690




ตารางที� ผ.5.13: FTA effects on Thailand’s output and Trade (Scenario 1) (เปลี�ยนแปลง)

Description

ผลผลิต

รายสาขา

(Percent)

ผลผลิต

รายสาขา ($US

million)

ปริมาณการนําเข้า

จาก EU (percent)

ปริมาณการส่งออก ไป EU

percent)

ปริมาณ

การขายภายในประเทศ(percent)

สาขาการค้าสินค้า

Paddy rice -0.51 -24.51 -1.44 -53.29 -0.36

Wheat -14.17 -0.34 -18.13 39.45 3.13

Cereal grains nec -0.28 -1.55 -3.88 3.03 -0.33

Vegetables, fruit, nuts 0.11 5.24 -3.87 0.92 0.19

Oil seeds -0.10 -0.35 -5.32 0.05 0.46

Sugar cane, sugar beet -0.93 -5.9 -1.37 -14.64 -0.93

Plant-based fibers -0.27 -0.34 -6.09 2.29 -0.22

Crops nec 0.23 5.58 -8.34 5.25 0.39

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.07 0.18 -4.47 6.80 0.07

Animal products nec 0.16 4.49 -2.91 4.35 0.17

Raw milk 0.08 0.15 -5.24 5.96 0.08

Wool, silk-worm cocoons -0.59 -0.03 -9.80 1.89 -0.59

Forestry 0.11 0.55 -2.96 2.62 0.09

Fishing -0.16 -5.62 -1.11 -0.35 -0.18

Coal 0.03 0.11 -1.74 1.75 0.03

Oil 0.21 3.5 -0.57 0.07 0.24

Gas 0.12 2.59 -0.98 1.33 0.12

Minerals nec -0.26 -3.7 -0.67 0.92 -0.58

Bovine meat products 0.11 0.8 -4.92 0.11 0.15

Meat products nec 0.22 8.77 -6.78 4.15 0.05

Vegetable oils and fats -0.64 -8.2 -3.04 -28.78 -0.17

Dairy products 0.07 0.36 -2.70 -9.32 0.33

Processed rice -0.37 -19.64 -2.04 -21.56 0.01

Sugar -0.94 -17.25 3.92 -91.25 -0.06

Food products nec -0.49 -51.85 -2.35 0.65 -0.01

Beverages and tobacco products -0.01 -0.45 -0.94 0.47 0.02

Textiles -0.60 -82.8 -3.99 3.35 -0.15

Wearing apparel -0.09 -8.45 -3.97 2.75 -0.07

Leather products -0.11 -4.2 -4.47 3.02 -0.02

Wood products 0.42 15.88 -3.80 3.69 0.23

Paper products, publishing 0.22 10.07 -2.54 3.14 0.21

Petroleum, coal products 0.10 21.62 -0.03 0.05 0.10

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 0.66 154.09 -2.85 3.24 0.45

Mineral products nec -0.50 -26.65 -2.73 2.88 -0.77

Ferrous metals -0.12 -5.26 -3.08 2.51 -0.19

Metals nec -0.09 -1 -3.65 2.18 -0.03

Metal products -0.15 -5.26 -4.22 3.83 -0.27

Motor vehicles and parts -0.67 -118.48 -3.67 2.88 -0.41

Transport equipment nec 0.22 4.45 -3.77 2.54 0.21

Electronic equipment 0.56 195.2 -4.12 2.68 -0.01

Machinery and equipment nec 0.18 34.17 -4.51 3.41 -0.04

Manufactures nec 0.46 39.9 -3.94 3.43 -0.03

สาขาการค้าบริการ

Electricity 0.05 4.35 -2.22 3.07 0.04

Gas manufacture, distribution 0.10 2.24 -3.04 2.01 0.10

Water 0.11 0.98 -2.94 3.77 0.05

Construction -1.09 -191.25 -1.61 2.20 -1.13

Trade -0.02 -4.89 -2.01 2.23 -0.12

Transport nec 0.23 34.42 -1.49 1.45 -0.14

Water transport 0.95 20.28 -0.95 1.37 0.08

Air transport 0.63 27.67 -1.22 1.37 0.13

Communication 0.30 8.87 -1.94 2.58 0.11

Financial services nec 0.06 6.94 -2.20 2.37 0.05

Insurance 0.41 10.07 -1.34 2.60 0.26

Business services nec 0.60 82.17 -1.66 2.58 0.17

Recreational and other services 0.20 17.79 -2.15 2.46 -0.06


Education, Health -0.06 -9.69 -2.32 2.28 -0.10

Dwellings -0.18 -13.57 -1.41 1.81 -0.18



ตารางที� ผ.5.14: FTA effects on Thailand’s demand for input factors (Scenario 1) (เปลี�ยนแปลง)

Description

ความต้องการ ปัจจยั ที�ดิน

(Percent)

ความต้องการ ปัจจยั

แรงงานไร้ฝีมอื (Percent)

ความต้องการปัจจยั

แรรงงานฝีมอื (Percent)


ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice -0.34 -0.68 -0.70 -0.69

Wheat -12.71 -15.59 -15.60 -15.59

Cereal grains nec -0.14 -0.43 -0.45 -0.44

Vegetables, fruit, nuts 0.21 0.00 -0.02 -0.01

Oil seeds 0.03 -0.23 -0.25 -0.24

Sugar cane, sugar beet -0.72 -1.15 -1.16 -1.16

Plant-based fibers -0.13 -0.41 -0.43 -0.42

Crops nec 0.32 0.14 0.12 0.13

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.18 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05

Animal products nec 0.26 0.06 0.04 0.05

Raw milk 0.19 -0.03 -0.05 -0.04

Wool, silk-worm cocoons -0.42 -0.78 -0.80 -0.79

Forestry 0.29 0.12 0.10 0.11

Fishing -0.05 -0.29 -0.31 -0.30

Coal 0.24 0.05 0.04 0.05

Oil 0.48 0.35 0.33 0.34

Gas 0.37 0.21 0.20 0.21

Minerals nec -0.04 -0.28 -0.29 -0.29

Bovine meat products 0.67 0.15 0.05 0.10

Meat products nec 0.73 0.25 0.16 0.21

Vegetable oils and fats 0.32 -0.60 -0.69 -0.65

Dairy products 0.66 0.11 0.02 0.06

Processed rice 0.45 -0.33 -0.43 -0.38

Sugar 0.17 -0.90 -0.99 -0.95

Food products nec 0.39 -0.45 -0.54 -0.50

Beverages and tobacco products 0.62 0.03 -0.06 -0.02

Textiles 0.39 -0.56 -0.66 -0.61

Wearing apparel 0.61 -0.05 -0.16 -0.11

Leather products 0.61 -0.06 -0.17 -0.12

Wood products 0.84 0.46 0.36 0.40

Paper products, publishing 0.76 0.26 0.16 0.21

Petroleum, coal products 0.70 0.15 0.04 0.09

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 0.95 0.70 0.60 0.65

Mineral products nec 0.43 -0.46 -0.56 -0.51

Ferrous metals 0.60 -0.08 -0.18 -0.13

Metals nec 0.61 -0.05 -0.16 -0.11

Metal products 0.59 -0.11 -0.21 -0.16

Motor vehicles and parts 0.36 -0.63 -0.73 -0.68

Transport equipment nec 0.75 0.26 0.16 0.21

Electronic equipment 0.91 0.61 0.50 0.55

Machinery and equipment nec 0.74 0.23 0.12 0.17

Manufactures nec 0.86 0.50 0.40 0.45


Electricity 0.68 0.10 -0.01 0.05

Gas manufacture, distribution 0.71 0.15 0.05 0.10

Water 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.11

Construction 0.23 -1.05 -1.16 -1.10

Trade 0.74 0.05 -0.09 -0.02

Transport nec 0.82 0.28 0.14 0.21

Water transport 1.10 1.01 0.87 0.94

Air transport 0.98 0.69 0.56 0.62

Communication 0.79 0.35 0.24 0.30

Financial services nec 0.69 0.11 0.01 0.06

Insurance 0.84 0.46 0.35 0.41

Business services nec 0.93 0.65 0.55 0.60

Recreational and other services 0.75 0.25 0.15 0.20

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health 0.64 0.00 -0.11 -0.06

Dwellings 0.58 -0.12 -0.23 -0.18





Description

ผลผลติ รายสาขา

(Percent)

ผลผลติ รายสาขา

($US

million)

ปรมิาณการนําเขา้ จาก

EU (percent)

ปรมิาณ การสง่ออก

ไป EU percent)

ปรมิาณ



Paddy rice -0.20 -9.73 -3.94 -20.45 -0.12

Wheat -8.67 -0.21 -14.2 21.35 1.91

Cereal grains nec -0.15 -0.82 -2.97 2.02 -0.29

Vegetables, fruit, nuts 0.02 0.88 -2.94 0.08 0.16

Oil seeds 0.18 0.63 -4.21 0.46 0.43

Sugar cane, sugar beet -0.66 -4.18 -3.97 -2.77 -0.66

Plant-based fibers -0.13 -0.17 -4.93 1.78 -0.07

Crops nec 0.16 3.75 -6.68 3.35 0.37

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.12 0.29 -3.35 3.73 0.11

Animal products nec 0.26 7.3 -2.31 2.43 0.27

Raw milk -0.06 -0.11 -5.45 4.76 -0.06

Wool, silk-worm cocoons -0.17 -0.01 -9.42 0.86 -0.17

Forestry 0.11 0.57 -3.15 3.03 0.06

Fishing -0.12 -4.19 -0.99 -0.13 -0.16

Coal 0.05 0.18 -1.75 1.83 0.05

Oil 0.20 3.47 -0.55 0.05 0.24

Gas 0.15 3.21 -1.01 1.68 0.15

Minerals nec -0.35 -5.01 -0.86 1.09 -0.77

Bovine meat products 0.16 1.17 -4.78 3.13 0.17

Meat products nec 0.36 14.34 -5.47 5.17 0.04

Vegetable oils and fats 0.15 1.88 -3.25 -11.84 0.19

Dairy products -0.14 -0.66 -3.32 1.16 0.39

Processed rice -0.13 -6.69 -3.63 -9.2 -0.01

Sugar -0.66 -12.23 -2.02 -68.28 -0.08

Food products nec -0.43 -45.71 -2.59 1.1 0.06

Beverages and tobacco products -0.06 -3.31 -1.21 0.76 0

Textiles -0.16 -22.86 -4.09 3.31 0.1

Wearing apparel 0.02 1.98 -4.28 2.65 -0.09

Leather products 0.38 14.92 -4.15 -0.11 0.08

Wood products 0.36 13.51 -3.76 3.94 0.29

Paper products, publishing 0.07 3.4 -2.73 3.36 0.22

Petroleum, coal products 0.09 19.54 -0.05 0.07 0.1

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 0.65 151.22 -2.79 3.27 0.51

Mineral products nec -0.70 -36.96 -2.78 3.1 -0.98

Ferrous metals -0.35 -15.6 -3.37 2.63 -0.32

Metals nec -0.09 -0.95 -3.79 2.33 0.06

Metal products -0.23 -7.85 -4.49 4.03 -0.31

Motor vehicles and parts -1.29 -228.7 -4.32 3.08 -0.57

Transport equipment nec 0.08 1.59 -3.93 2.65 0.19

Electronic equipment 0.65 228.05 -3.84 2.61 0.06

Machinery and equipment nec 0.08 14.24 -4.73 3.62 -0.13

Manufactures nec 0.62 53.88 -4.18 3.76 -0.01


Electricity 0.06 4.93 -2.42 3.28 0.05

Gas manufacture, distribution 0.12 2.59 -3.15 2.52 0.12

Water 0.13 1.15 -3.26 4.3 0.06

Construction -1.37 -239.52 -1.73 2.4 -1.41

Trade -0.03 -8.3 -2.33 2.58 -0.15

Transport nec 0.21 31.76 -1.7 1.58 -0.19

Water transport 0.76 16.27 -1.14 1.43 0.04

Air transport 0.77 34.1 -1.34 1.59 0.13

Communication 0.33 9.73 -2.15 2.87 0.11

Financial services nec 0.06 6.56 -2.42 2.67 0.04

Insurance 0.45 11 -1.48 2.84 0.27

Business services nec 0.64 87.03 -1.79 2.73 0.17

Recreational and other services 0.19 16.47 -2.31 2.57 -0.09

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health -0.07 -10.58 -2.53 2.54 -0.11

Dwellings -0.21 -16.22 -1.77 1.88 -0.21





Description


(Percent)






ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice -0.15 -0.26 -0.27 -0.26

Wheat -7.77 -9.61 -9.63 -9.62


Vegetables, fruit, nuts 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02

Oil seeds 0.2 0.16 0.15 0.16



Crops nec 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.13

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.14 0.09 0.08 0.09


Raw milk -0.02 -0.1 -0.12 -0.11


Forestry 0.16 0.12 0.11 0.12

Fishing -0.13 -0.22 -0.23 -0.22

Coal 0.12 0.08 0.06 0.07

Oil 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.33

Gas 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.26

Minerals nec -0.26 -0.38 -0.39 -0.39

Bovine meat products 0.26 0.18 0.11 0.16


Vegetable oils and fats 0.26 0.16 0.1 0.15

Dairy products 0.12 -0.12 -0.19 -0.14

Processed rice 0.13 -0.11 -0.18 -0.13

Sugar -0.13 -0.65 -0.72 -0.67

Food products nec -0.02 -0.42 -0.48 -0.43

Beverages and tobacco products 0.16 -0.04 -0.11 -0.06

Textiles 0.12 -0.15 -0.22 -0.17

Wearing apparel 0.21 0.04 -0.04 0.02

Leather products 0.36 0.39 0.32 0.37

Wood products 0.36 0.37 0.3 0.36

Paper products, publishing 0.23 0.09 0.02 0.07

Petroleum, coal products 0.24 0.11 0.03 0.09

Chemical, rubber, plastic products 0.49 0.67 0.59 0.65

Mineral products nec -0.11 -0.68 -0.76 -0.7

Ferrous metals 0.04 -0.34 -0.41 -0.36

Metals nec 0.16 -0.07 -0.15 -0.09

Metal products 0.1 -0.21 -0.29 -0.23

Motor vehicles and parts -0.37 -1.27 -1.35 -1.29

Transport equipment nec 0.23 0.1 0.02 0.08

Electronic equipment 0.49 0.67 0.6 0.65

Machinery and equipment nec 0.23 0.09 0.02 0.08

Manufactures nec 0.47 0.64 0.56 0.62


Electricity 0.22 0.08 0 0.06

Gas manufacture, distribution 0.25 0.14 0.07 0.12

Water 0.25 0.14 0.07 0.13

Construction -0.36 -1.35 -1.43 -1.37

Trade 0.21 0 -0.1 -0.03

Transport nec 0.3 0.23 0.13 0.21

Water transport 0.51 0.79 0.69 0.76

Air transport 0.51 0.8 0.7 0.77

Communication 0.34 0.35 0.27 0.33

Financial services nec 0.23 0.08 0 0.06

Insurance 0.4 0.47 0.39 0.45

Business services nec 0.48 0.66 0.59 0.65

Recreational and other services 0.29 0.21 0.14 0.2

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health 0.18 -0.03 -0.1 -0.05

Dwellings 0.11 -0.19 -0.27 -0.21





Description

ผลผลิต รายสาขา

(Percent)


($US million)



ปริมาณ การส่งออก

ไป EU percent)

ปริมาณ

การขายภายในประเทศ

(percent)


Paddy rice -2.11 -101.47 1338.48 -13.06 -1.75

Wheat -4.57 -0.11 5.09 -5.20 -0.93

Cereal grains nec 1.18 6.47 78.85 88.79 3.68

Vegetables, fruit, nuts -1.23 -59.74 340.45 19.63 -1.83

Oil seeds -4.53 -15.98 169.50 -3.35 -4.76

Sugar cane, sugar beet -3.11 -19.66 0.62 -6.52 -3.11

Plant-based fibers -4.09 -5.32 22.59 -3.36 -4.13

Crops nec -2.75 -66.41 517.67 43.18 -3.97

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses -1.47 -3.71 30.54 -5.25 -1.43

Animal products nec 16.87 472.62 21.25 -7.57 17.55

Raw milk -3.71 -6.75 1.22 -7.49 -3.71

Wool, silk-worm cocoons -2.36 -0.14 6.02 -10.39 -2.34

Forestry -3.18 -16.58 40.85 -7.26 -2.65

Fishing 1.66 57.69 177.91 2.31 2.29

Coal -0.78 -2.86 7.81 -10.04 -0.78

Oil -1.77 -29.97 -0.68 2.94 -2.06

Gas -1.56 -33.73 0.19 -6.19 -1.55

Minerals nec 3.94 57.11 0.75 -8.01 8.58

Bovine meat products -2.26 -16.46 567.24 -10.32 -2.21

Meat products nec 21.53 865.81 466.66 315.43 1.17

Vegetable oils and fats -4.61 -58.67 350.26 -13.28 -2.88

Dairy products -4.46 -21.51 49.43 -6.31 -3.95

Processed rice -2.06 -109.71 193.73 -6.69 2.09

Sugar -3.11 -57.29 225.57 -9.51 1.10

Food products nec 5.34 563.2 139.01 89.45 0.29

Beverages and tobacco products -1.66 -96.04 90.83 50.85 -2.02

Textiles -2.25 -312.68 287.96 54.79 -5.00

Wearing apparel 1.19 110.63 455.45 65.16 -3.27

Leather products 7.06 280.27 179.28 93.02 -2.67

Wood products -10.92 -411.51 183.30 -13.55 -6.91

Paper products, publishing -3.68 -168.23 135.82 1.77 -5.48

Petroleum, coal products -0.48 -106.2 3.65 -1.43 -0.40

Chemical, rubber, plastic products -6.55 -1525.87 88.74 6.88 -8.09

Mineral products nec 5.21 276.24 98.92 4.06 10.39

Ferrous metals -1.24 -54.53 63.32 -3.07 -0.37

Metals nec -5.80 -61.55 41.31 -2.01 -5.29

Metal products -4.86 -168.49 198.26 -5.05 -1.59

Motor vehicles and parts 5.43 963.64 481.73 53.30 2.77

Transport equipment nec -5.31 -104.92 27.86 1.80 -2.18

Electronic equipment -4.24 -1478.18 56.94 8.69 -0.02

Machinery and equipment nec -4.96 -930.01 70.73 -3.79 -3.61

Manufactures nec -4.55 -393.26 78.52 -1.70 -0.74


Electricity -0.92 -80.38 5.29 -11.19 -0.89

Gas manufacture, distribution -1.85 -39.48 2.07 -15.28 -1.84

Water -1.16 -10.64 9.56 -19.08 -0.79

Construction 17.11 2998.92 3.46 -7.99 17.46

Trade 0.76 237.96 7.15 -12.56 1.67

Transport nec -0.19 -28.25 3.12 -5.52 2.09

Water transport -2.34 -49.78 2.63 -5.90 0.61

Air transport -5.67 -249.63 2.89 -8.04 -0.94

Communication -2.28 -68.18 6.84 -13.48 -1.03

Financial services nec -0.61 -70.35 7.31 -12.71 -0.51

Insurance -2.87 -70.79 3.61 -12.03 -1.90

Business services nec -2.91 -397.44 3.84 -9.81 -0.79

Recreational and other services -0.94 -82.19 4.99 -8.55 0.41

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health -0.38 -56.59 5.63 -10.88 -0.09

Dwellings 0.90 69.54 16.87 0.09 0.90





Description


(Percent)


แรงงานไร้ฝีมอื

(Percent)




ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice -1.65 -2.57 -2.45 -2.61

Wheat -3.88 -5.27 -5.15 -5.30

Cereal grains nec 1.31 1.05 1.17 1.01

Vegetables, fruit, nuts -0.86 -1.61 -1.49 -1.65

Oil seeds -3.84 -5.22 -5.11 -5.26



Crops nec -2.23 -3.27 -3.16 -3.31

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses -1.07 -1.87 -1.74 -1.91


Raw milk -3.10 -4.33 -4.21 -4.37


Forestry -2.48 -3.45 -3.35 -3.49

Fishing 3.09 3.21 3.32 3.17

Coal -0.56 -1.16 -1.06 -1.20

Oil -1.93 -2.79 -2.68 -2.82

Gas -1.77 -2.60 -2.50 -2.64

Minerals nec 4.14 4.47 4.58 4.43

Bovine meat products 0.27 -2.15 -1.56 -2.35


Vegetable oils and fats -0.85 -4.45 -3.88 -4.65

Dairy products -0.80 -4.34 -3.76 -4.54

Processed rice 0.36 -1.97 -1.37 -2.17

Sugar -0.14 -3.00 -2.42 -3.20

Food products nec 3.88 5.48 6.12 5.27

Beverages and tobacco products 0.57 -1.52 -0.94 -1.72

Textiles 0.41 -2.14 -1.48 -2.36

Wearing apparel 1.96 1.30 1.98 1.07

Leather products 4.55 7.22 7.96 6.98

Wood products -3.62 -10.80 -10.21 -11.01

Paper products, publishing -0.22 -3.53 -2.89 -3.75

Petroleum, coal products 1.24 -0.30 0.38 -0.52

Chemical, rubber, plastic products -1.56 -6.44 -5.81 -6.65

Mineral products nec 3.75 5.37 6.09 5.13

Ferrous metals 0.88 -1.11 -0.43 -1.34

Metals nec -1.21 -5.68 -5.05 -5.90

Metal products -0.77 -4.72 -4.08 -4.94

Motor vehicles and parts 3.83 5.56 6.28 5.32

Transport equipment nec -1.00 -5.24 -4.61 -5.46

Electronic equipment -0.48 -4.10 -3.46 -4.31

Machinery and equipment nec -0.82 -4.84 -4.20 -5.05

Manufactures nec -0.63 -4.43 -3.79 -4.64


Electricity 1.02 -0.80 -0.12 -1.03

Gas manufacture, distribution 0.59 -1.74 -1.08 -1.97

Water 0.94 -0.98 -0.31 -1.20

Construction 8.45 17.28 18.17 16.98

Trade 1.92 1.00 1.91 0.69

Transport nec 1.53 -0.05 0.86 -0.35

Water transport 0.73 -2.16 -1.26 -2.46

Air transport -0.54 -5.43 -4.59 -5.71

Communication 0.40 -2.16 -1.50 -2.38

Financial services nec 1.13 -0.54 0.14 -0.77

Insurance 0.14 -2.84 -2.19 -3.06

Business services nec 0.08 -2.96 -2.30 -3.18

Recreational and other services 0.94 -0.97 -0.29 -1.19

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health 1.05 -0.72 -0.02 -0.95

Dwellings 1.88 1.12 1.83 0.89





Description


(Percent)


($US

million)




percent)

ปริมาณ


(percent)


Paddy rice 12.82 616.03 2939.13 1458.93 5.43

Wheat -14.10 -0.34 3.49 -16.38 -2.37

Cereal grains nec -2.97 -16.29 86.28 69.37 1.60


Oil seeds -10.76 -37.94 172.17 -18.57 -9.13



Crops nec -8.22 -198.35 557.13 8.36 -6.47



Raw milk -1.33 -2.41 13.54 -33.90 -1.33


Forestry -3.37 -17.52 41.25 -6.42 -2.92

Fishing 1.16 40.50 170.57 4.65 1.65

Coal -0.89 -3.26 7.05 -7.82 -0.89

Oil -1.76 -29.90 -0.76 5.69 -2.24

Gas -1.56 -33.72 -0.17 -4.37 -1.55

Minerals nec 3.46 50.06 0.34 -7.26 7.61

Bovine meat products -2.02 -14.68 579.64 62.93 -2.12


Vegetable oils and fats -5.13 -65.25 345.40 7.65 -3.46

Dairy products -1.30 -6.28 52.45 1890.25 -4.63

Processed rice 5.14 273.65 289.39 821.53 0.57

Sugar -3.15 -58.01 243.37 552.11 0.62

Food products nec 3.38 357.03 138.09 85.73 -1.64


Textiles -1.89 -262.19 288.89 55.22 -4.61

Wearing apparel 1.83 169.90 457.12 66.29 -2.69


Wood products -10.35 -390.19 180.65 -12.68 -6.78





Ferrous metals -1.09 -48.20 63.12 -2.63 -0.34

Metals nec -5.24 -55.67 41.96 -1.42 -4.85

Metal products -4.57 -158.57 196.10 -4.31 -1.83



Electronic equipment -3.51 -1223.10 57.36 9.68 0.16




Electricity -1.00 -86.91 14.79 0.07 -0.99


Water -0.99 -9.02 8.64 -17.42 -0.65

Construction 15.44 2707.40 3.96 -7.40 15.77

Trade 0.93 293.79 8.43 -9.82 1.73

Transport nec -0.03 -4.21 3.22 -5.19 2.18

Water transport -1.90 -40.38 4.06 -3.89 0.58

Air transport -4.23 -186.09 8.92 -2.86 -1.73

Communication -15.19 -452.75 941.85 -8.09 -15.74


Insurance -2.54 -62.65 3.84 -11.39 -1.60


Recreational and other services -0.80 -69.86 6.75 -10.70 0.95

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health 0.23 34.55 6.25 -10.97 0.50

Dwellings 1.86 144.53 16.32 0.04 1.86





Description


(Percent)



(Percent)




ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice 9.76 16.40 16.65 16.55

Wheat -14.22 -13.99 -13.81 -13.88



Oil seeds -11.23 -10.54 -10.10 -10.42



Crops nec -8.72 -7.37 -7.17 -7.24



Raw milk -2.79 0.28 0.49 0.41


Forestry -5.75 -3.74 -3.56 -3.63

Fishing -1.01 2.11 2.30 2.23

Coal -3.86 -1.43 -1.23 -1.32

Oil -5.08 -2.92 -2.73 -2.80

Gas -4.91 -2.71 -2.53 -2.60

Minerals nec 0.35 3.79 3.98 3.91

Bovine meat products -9.42 -2.51 -1.47 -1.86

Meat products nec -2.83 13.22 14.39 13.94


Dairy products -9.42 -1.78 -0.77 -1.16

Processed rice -6.45 4.63 5.74 5.33

Sugar -9.95 -3.64 -2.64 -3.03

Food products nec -7.14 2.83 3.90 3.48

Beverages and tobacco products -9.15 -1.83 -0.81 -1.21

Textiles -9.78 -2.43 -1.27 -1.71

Wearing apparel -8.26 1.32 2.51 2.06

Leather products -5.99 7.12 8.40 7.93

Wood products -13.30 -10.81 -9.77 -10.18


Petroleum, coal products -9.24 -1.10 0.06 -0.39


Mineral products nec -7.20 4.01 5.22 4.75

Ferrous metals -9.46 -1.64 -0.46 -0.92

Metals nec -11.16 -5.75 -4.65 -5.08

Metal products -10.90 -5.15 -4.02 -4.45

Motor vehicles and parts -6.83 4.94 6.18 5.71






Electricity -9.45 -1.65 -0.46 -0.91

Gas manufacture, distribution -9.86 -2.64 -1.47 -1.92

Water -9.47 -1.69 -0.50 -0.95

Construction -3.83 14.74 16.22 15.65

Trade -9.81 0.08 1.64 1.03

Transport nec -10.08 -0.72 0.83 0.23

Water transport -10.74 -2.68 -1.12 -1.72

Air transport -11.57 -5.08 -3.59 -4.16

Communication -15.92 -15.78 -14.78 -15.16

Financial services nec -9.29 -1.21 -0.06 -0.51

Insurance -10.08 -3.18 -2.03 -2.46

Business services nec -10.04 -3.07 -1.91 -2.35

Recreational and other services -9.36 -1.43 -0.23 -0.69

Public Administration, Defense, Education, Health -8.99 -0.49 0.69 0.24

Dwellings -8.34 1.11 2.33 1.87





Description


(Percent)


($US million)




percent)

ปริมาณ


(percent)


Paddy rice 12.79 614.98 2947.11 1456.9 5.42

Wheat -14.16 -0.34 3.4 -16.48 -2.23



Oil seeds -11.06 -38.97 172.52 -18.76 -9.3

Sugar cane, sugar beet -3.18 -20.1 17.61 -32 -3.18


Crops nec -8.19 -197.59 558.55 7.93 -6.53



Raw milk -1.21 -2.2 13.82 -34.16 -1.21


Forestry -3.30 -17.15 41.39 -6.5 -2.84

Fishing 1.20 41.75 171.04 4.4 1.69

Coal -0.88 -3.21 7.09 -7.75 -0.88

Oil -1.72 -29.2 -0.6 5.61 -2.18

Gas -1.54 -33.38 -0.11 -4.16 -1.54

Minerals nec 3.47 50.24 0.38 -7.25 7.63

Bovine meat products -1.83 -13.3 580.93 62.86 -1.93


Vegetable oils and fats -4.99 -63.53 345.51 7.73 -3.31

Dairy products -1.20 -5.8 52.68 1888.71 -4.52

Processed rice 5.13 273.14 290.18 820.94 0.67

Sugar -3.17 -58.41 244.15 551.59 0.73

Food products nec 3.36 354.76 138.33 85.6 -1.56


Textiles -1.77 -245.02 289.32 55.23 -4.46

Wearing apparel 1.98 183.47 457.93 66.45 -2.5


Wood products -10.27 -387.26 180.69 -12.61 -6.68





Ferrous metals -1.02 -44.9 63.22 -2.58 -0.27

Metals nec -5.19 -55.12 42.08 -1.38 -4.7

Metal products -4.48 -155.47 196.23 -4.24 -1.71



Electronic equipment -3.37 -1172.3 57.52 9.85 0.3




Electricity -0.99 -86.09 24.94 11.33 -0.99


Water -0.84 -7.69 8.75 -17.33 -0.5

Construction 15.42 2704.06 4.14 -7.36 15.75

Trade 1.12 351.36 10.32 -7.97 1.86

Transport nec 0.06 9.43 3.37 -5.15 2.3

Water transport -1.65 -35.1 5.52 -2.27 0.44

Air transport -3.29 -144.66 14.6 1.74 -2.79

Communication -22.06 -657.44 1610.87 -3.49 -23.61


Insurance -2.41 -59.5 4.02 -11.33 -1.46


Recreational and other services -0.63 -55 6.96 -10.69 1.15


Dwellings 2.12 164.41 16.5 0.04 2.12





Description


(Percent)






ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice 9.73 16.39 16.65 16.56

Wheat -14.29 -14.05 -13.86 -13.93



Oil seeds -11.22 -10.51 -10.31 -10.38



Crops nec -9.02 -7.32 -7.11 -7.18



Raw milk -2.7 0.43 0.65 0.57


Forestry -5.87 -3.67 -3.49 -3.55

Fishing -0.94 2.17 2.37 2.3

Coal -4.04 -1.42 -1.23 -1.3

Oil -5.05 -2.86 -2.67 -2.74

Gas -4.92 -2.69 -2.5 -2.57

Minerals nec 0.33 3.79 3.99 3.92

Bovine meat products -9.41 -2.36 -1.28 -1.65



Dairy products -9.45 -1.72 -0.66 -1.05

Processed rice -6.53 4.58 5.74 5.34

Sugar -10 -3.63 -2.6 -3.03


Beverages and tobacco products -9.15 -1.73 -0.64 -1.03

Textiles -9.8 -2.34 -1.14 -1.57

Wearing apparel -8.28 1.44 2.67 2.22


Wood products -13.34 -10.77 -9.69 -10.08


Petroleum, coal products -9.26 -1.04 0.19 -0.23


Mineral products nec -7.27 3.99 5.25 4.79

Ferrous metals -9.5 -1.61 -0.4 -0.83

Metals nec -11.21 -5.74 -4.6 -5.01

Metal products -10.94 -5.11 -3.93 -4.35

Motor vehicles and parts -6.87 5 6.3 5.82






Electricity -9.53 -1.69 -0.47 -0.89

Gas manufacture, distribution -9.92 -2.67 -1.46 -1.88

Water -9.49 -1.6 -0.38 -0.81

Construction -3.92 14.66 16.21 15.65

Trade -9.84 0.15 1.81 1.22

Transport nec -10.13 -0.72 0.92 0.34

Water transport -10.74 -2.49 -0.89 -1.46

Air transport -11.33 -4.22 -2.65 -3.21

Communication -18.59 -22.63 -21.69 -22.02

Financial services nec -9.33 -1.21 0.03 -0.41

Insurance -10.11 -3.09 -1.9 -2.32

Business services nec -9.94 -2.71 -1.5 -1.92

Recreational and other services -9.37 -1.3 -0.07 -0.5


Dwellings -8.32 1.33 2.57 2.13




ตารางที� ผ.5.23: FTA effects on Thailand’s output and Trade (Scenario 6)

Description


(Percent)


($US

million)




percent)

ปริมาณ



Paddy rice 12.54 602.83 3,611.55 1,405.44 4.97

Wheat -15.76 -0.38 6.12 -18.65 -0.48


Vegetables, fruit, nuts -4.96 -240.1 397 -2.07 -1.51

Oil seeds -9.41 -33.18 179.87 -25.43 -6.08



Crops nec -5.92 -142.95 607.8 -6.92 -2.65

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.36 0.92 48.51 -29.7 0.65


Raw milk 3.04 5.53 23.61 -40.22 3.04

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 6.52 0.38 16.09 -59.01 6.63

Forestry 0.4 2.06 53.04 -1.97 0.77

Fishing 2.66 92.43 182.38 1.7 3.38

Coal 2.12 7.76 6.71 -25.63 2.12

Oil 0 0.08 1.97 0.16 0

Gas 0.15 3.26 9.26 -30.54 0.2

Minerals nec 1.97 28.55 2.47 -1.31 3.28

Bovine meat products 0.72 5.26 591.66 80.42 0.56


Vegetable oils and fats 0.63 8.05 349.39 22.89 1.06

Dairy products 2.95 14.23 57.41 2,181.37 -1.25

Processed rice 4.58 244.02 307.71 811.94 1.47

Sugar -1.01 -18.63 245.81 575.1 2.32


Beverages and tobacco products 0.49 28.3 90.87 56.47 0.05

Textiles 7.57 1050.5 296.31 74.1 3.45

Wearing apparel 8.43 782.11 429.08 89.39 -0.77

Leather products 18.63 739.37 175.53 124.63 2.51

Wood products -0.96 -36.11 164.32 -0.62 -0.68

Paper products, publishing 2.46 112.57 142.52 11.53 -0.55

Petroleum, coal products 1.96 430.83 6.32 0.13 2.13



Ferrous metals 2.68 118.29 65.25 2.2 3.03

Metals nec 0.75 8.01 51.73 4.7 2.65

Metal products 0.86 29.86 190.05 5.48 -0.92


Transport equipment nec 2.96 58.53 23.62 12.84 1.06

Electronic equipment 5.54 1928.06 63.64 21.4 4.77

Machinery and equipment nec 4.47 837.64 65.48 7.03 2.53

Manufactures nec 3.25 280.73 77.83 12.32 2.38


Electricity 2.63 229.43 13.22 7.67 2.63

Gas manufacture, distribution 2.22 47.52 0.51 -2.66 2.23

Water 2.84 25.98 1.14 1.52 2.86

Construction 4.77 836.81 2.99 0.13 4.84

Trade 3.85 1212.21 6.44 2.03 4.05

Transport nec 2.06 308.41 3.49 -0.43 3.21

Water transport 1.04 22.02 4.27 1.56 2.71

Air transport 2.28 100.35 9 5.49 1.97

Communication -10.89 -325.77 963.7 4.44 -12.34

Financial services nec 3.18 366.56 13.26 -0.74 3.21

Insurance 2.2 54.4 3.78 -2.36 2.69

Business services nec 1.12 152.76 6.77 -0.65 2.24

Recreational and other services 1.79 156.31 6.05 -5.56 3.09


Education, Health 1.06 158.83 5.39 -7.84 1.28

Dwellings 4.35 337.02 2.24 0.01 4.35




Description


(Percent)



(Percent)




ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice 8.81 16.92 17.14 18.22

Wheat -16.32 -15.29 -15.12 -14.35

Cereal grains nec -4.31 -0.13 0.06 0.98


Oil seeds -10.64 -8.18 -8.01 -7.16

Sugar cane, sugar beet -3.18 1.31 1.51 2.44


Crops nec -7.54 -4.25 -4.07 -3.19

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses -1.95 2.89 3.09 4.04


Raw milk 0.42 5.95 6.16 7.13

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 3.5 9.95 10.16 11.17

Forestry -3.93 -0.17 0 0.8

Fishing -0.25 4.43 4.61 5.45

Coal -1.68 2.64 2.81 3.64

Oil -4.48 -0.86 -0.69 0.11

Gas -4.1 -0.39 -0.22 0.59

Minerals nec -2.65 1.42 1.59 2.41

Bovine meat products -12.78 -3 -2.07 2.42


Vegetable oils and fats -13.24 -4.06 -3.14 1.3

Dairy products -11.94 -1 -0.05 4.54

Processed rice -11.12 0.97 1.94 6.62

Sugar -13.56 -4.82 -3.91 0.5


Beverages and tobacco products -13.09 -3.72 -2.8 1.67

Textiles -10.88 3.21 4.32 9.72

Wearing apparel -10.42 4.41 5.54 11


Wood products -14.07 -4.95 -3.93 1.04

Paper products, publishing -13.02 -2.3 -1.25 3.86

Petroleum, coal products -13.45 -3.4 -2.36 2.69


Mineral products nec -12.84 -1.85 -0.79 4.35

Ferrous metals -12.73 -1.56 -0.5 4.65

Metals nec -13.45 -3.4 -2.36 2.7

Metal products -13.59 -3.75 -2.72 2.32


Transport equipment nec -12.3 -0.46 0.61 5.82

Electronic equipment -11.94 0.45 1.53 6.79

Machinery and equipment nec -12.18 -0.15 0.92 6.15

Manufactures nec -12.51 -1 0.07 5.25


Electricity -12.95 -2.13 -1.08 4.05

Gas manufacture, distribution -13.04 -2.35 -1.3 3.81

Water -13.2 -2.77 -1.72 3.37

Construction -12.71 -0.19 1 6.83

Trade -14.57 -3.22 -1.83 5

Transport nec -14.58 -3.24 -1.85 4.99

Water transport -15.15 -4.97 -3.6 3.11

Air transport -15.16 -5 -3.63 3.08

Communication -18.31 -15.21 -14.3 -9.86

Financial services nec -12.62 -1.28 -0.22 4.95

Insurance -12.82 -1.8 -0.74 4.4

Business services nec -12.9 -2 -0.95 4.18

Recreational and other services -12.75 -1.61 -0.55 4.6


Dwellings -12.82 -1.8 -0.74 4.4





Description


(Percent)


($US

million)




percent)

ปริมาณ


(percent)


Paddy rice 12.52 601.71 3,621.18 1,403.38 4.96

Wheat -15.82 -0.38 6.08 -18.75 -0.32


Vegetables, fruit, nuts -4.94 -239.24 397.96 -2.25 -1.45

Oil seeds -9.4 -33.15 180.21 -25.61 -6.03



Crops nec -5.9 -142.26 609.4 -7.3 -2.58

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses 0.54 1.36 48.8 -29.96 0.83


Raw milk 3.16 5.74 23.91 -40.48 3.16

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 6.62 0.38 16.19 -59.25 6.73

Forestry 0.45 2.36 53.2 -2.1 0.85

Fishing 2.71 94.27 182.88 1.42 3.45

Coal 2.13 7.79 6.76 -25.73 2.13

Oil 0.04 0.63 2.15 -0.08 0.04

Gas 0.16 3.45 9.38 -30.55 0.21

Minerals nec 1.99 28.74 2.51 -1.32 3.3

Bovine meat products 0.91 6.63 592.96 80.24 0.75


Vegetable oils and fats 0.76 9.62 349.43 22.93 1.2

Dairy products 3.04 14.68 57.64 2,178.76 -1.08

Processed rice 4.57 243.53 308.56 811.36 1.58

Sugar -0.98 -17.96 246.59 574.42 2.46


Beverages and tobacco products 0.67 38.92 91.18 56.51 0.24

Textiles 7.68 1065.35 296.68 74.19 3.58

Wearing apparel 8.58 795.23 429.9 89.49 -0.58

Leather products 18.76 744.63 175.89 124.75 2.69

Wood products -0.9 -34.1 164.39 -0.58 -0.6

Paper products, publishing 2.59 118.38 142.76 11.6 -0.4

Petroleum, coal products 2.12 466.29 6.62 0.12 2.31



Ferrous metals 2.75 121.18 65.34 2.23 3.11

Metals nec 0.79 8.42 51.86 4.74 2.79

Metal products 0.94 32.61 190.18 5.53 -0.8


Transport equipment nec 3.01 59.49 23.66 12.88 1.17

Electronic equipment 5.67 1974.56 63.78 21.57 4.91

Machinery and equipment nec 4.55 853.03 65.52 7.11 2.65

Manufactures nec 3.35 289.4 78.09 12.37 2.53


Electricity 2.63 229.86 23.3 19.74 2.62

Gas manufacture, distribution 2.24 47.86 0.51 -2.64 2.24

Water 2.98 27.27 1.27 1.58 3.01

Construction 4.77 837.08 3.18 0.16 4.84

Trade 4.05 1274.57 8.29 4.09 4.18

Transport nec 2.15 322.45 3.65 -0.41 3.33

Water transport 1.29 27.48 5.75 3.25 2.57

Air transport 3.3 145.38 14.71 10.47 0.88

Communication -18.2 -544.39 1,844.91 9.67 -20.79

Financial services nec 3.27 377.35 22.52 0.28 3.3

Insurance 2.33 57.59 3.97 -2.33 2.83

Business services nec 1.57 214.14 9.08 3.39 2.17

Recreational and other services 1.95 170.5 6.32 -5.58 3.29


Dwellings 4.62 358.4 2.45 0.01 4.62





Description


(Percent)



(Percent)




ทุน

(Percent)


Paddy rice 8.78 16.9 17.14 18.21

Wheat -16.38 -15.35 -15.18 -14.41

Cereal grains nec -4.33 -0.14 0.06 0.98


Oil seeds -10.64 -8.17 -7.98 -7.14

Sugar cane, sugar beet -3.16 1.36 1.57 2.5


Crops nec -7.52 -4.21 -4.02 -3.14

Bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses -1.81 3.1 3.31 4.26

Animal products nec 8.67 16.76 17 18.07

Raw milk 0.51 6.1 6.31 7.29

Wool, silk-worm cocoons 3.57 10.08 10.3 11.31

Forestry -3.9 -0.12 0.06 0.87

Fishing -0.18 4.54 4.72 5.57

Coal -1.69 2.64 2.82 3.65

Oil -4.46 -0.82 -0.64 0.16

Gas -4.1 -0.38 -0.2 0.61

Minerals nec -2.66 1.42 1.6 2.42

Bovine meat products -12.76 -2.85 -1.89 2.63


Vegetable oils and fats -13.25 -3.98 -3.03 1.43

Dairy products -11.96 -0.94 0.04 4.65

Processed rice -11.18 0.93 1.93 6.63

Sugar -13.6 -4.82 -3.87 0.55


Beverages and tobacco products -13.07 -3.58 -2.62 1.86

Textiles -10.9 3.27 4.43 9.85

Wearing apparel -10.43 4.51 5.68 11.17


Wood products -14.11 -4.94 -3.88 1.12

Paper products, publishing -13.04 -2.23 -1.13 4

Petroleum, coal products -13.46 -3.3 -2.21 2.86


Mineral products nec -12.89 -1.86 -0.76 4.39

Ferrous metals -12.76 -1.54 -0.43 4.74

Metals nec -13.5 -3.4 -2.32 2.76

Metal products -13.63 -3.72 -2.64 2.41


Transport equipment nec -12.34 -0.45 0.66 5.89

Electronic equipment -11.96 0.53 1.66 6.94

Machinery and equipment nec -12.21 -0.12 1 6.25

Manufactures nec -12.53 -0.94 0.17 5.37


Electricity -13.01 -2.17 -1.07 4.06

Gas manufacture, distribution -13.09 -2.38 -1.28 3.84

Water -13.22 -2.69 -1.6 3.51

Construction -12.78 -0.24 1 6.85

Trade -14.58 -3.1 -1.65 5.21

Transport nec -14.61 -3.2 -1.75 5.11

Water transport -15.14 -4.78 -3.36 3.39

Air transport -14.91 -4.11 -2.68 4.12

Communication -21.41 -22.21 -21.33 -17.25

Financial services nec -12.65 -1.23 -0.13 5.06

Insurance -12.84 -1.72 -0.62 4.54

Business services nec -12.79 -1.6 -0.5 4.66

Recreational and other services -12.75 -1.49 -0.39 4.78


Dwellings -12.79 -1.59 -0.49 4.68


ภาคผนวก - thaiftathaifta.com/trade/study/theu_book1_appch5.pdf15 coal coal: mining and...

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