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***Neg***

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---Case---

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Solvency

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Not that invasiveNot that invasive-even positive for horse ownersFTCLDF 13(Farm-to-Consumer Legal Defense Fund , “USDA’s Final Rule on AnimalID”, htt!""###$farmto%onsumer$org"usdas-&nal-rule-on-animal-id", 'anuar )*,+).

 /he U$S$ Deartment of Agri%ulture (USDA. has u0lished its &nal rule on Animal ID$ /han1s to the ressure from

the grassroots, the agen% in%luded imortant %hanges that ma1e it signi&%antl less0urdensome for famil farmers, ran%hers, and 0a%1ard oultr o#ners $ 2e ha3e%ome a 3er long #a from 4ig Ag’s and USDA’s roosal for the 5ational Animal Identi&%ation Sstem(5AIS.$ In this &nal rule, there is no remises registration , no mandator ele%troni%id enti&%ation, no %entrali6ed data0ases,  no reorting of mo3ements, and nore7uirements for in-state mo3ements $ /he &nal rule re7uires a lo#-te%h form of identi&%ation andsome form of do%umentation #hen adult %attle, dair %attle, or sho# %attle %ross state lines$ /here are alsore7uirements for oultr that %ross state lines, 0ut hat%her %hi%1s do not ha3e to 0e identi&ed$ 2e #ant to sa

 /8A59 :;U to ea%h and e3er one of ou #ho too1 the time to #rite %omments on the roosed rule in resonse toour a%tion alerts$ :our %omments trul made a diust-roosed regulations on food safet$ 2e ha3e man &ghts ahead of us, 0ut as the Animal ID rule

sho#s, #e %an ma1e a die%t to ne# re7uirements  the rulerefers to the ID re7uirements under e?isting disease %ontrol rograms for these animals$ Similarl, horseo#ners ha3e alread 0een identifing horses that %ross state lines due to e7uineinfe%tious anemia rograms and #ill fa%e fe# 0urdens in ra%ti%e$ /he &nal rule

made t#o positive changes  in its re7uirements for horses! ). 8orses that are used

for transortation interstate (su%h as 0 horse and 0ugg. are e?emt +. /he identi&%ation

re7uirement in%ludes a ro3ision for a hsi%al des%rition that is not deendent onhealth authorities’ oinions in most %ases$

http://www.farmtoconsumer.org/usdas-final-rule-on-animal-id/http://www.farmtoconsumer.org/usdas-final-rule-on-animal-id/

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No War

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1NC Yes War Yes warllison !1" (Braham Allison, Braham Allison is Dire%tor of the 8ar3ard 9enned

S%hool’s 4elfer Center for S%ien%e and International A

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7uo raise %on%erns$ /he a? a%i&%a esta0lished and enfor%ed 0 the US for se3en de%ades sin%e 2orld 2ar II hasro3ided an e%onomi% and se%urit order in #hi%h the nations of Asia, in%luding China, ha3e en>oed unre%edentedea%e and roserit$ Demands for %hange, ese%iall through unilateral a%tions, not onl seem ungrateful, 0ut

raise alarms$ 5istorically when rising assertiveness .ecoes h+.ristic

an' fears  paranoi' +t+al e6aggeration can fee' isperceptions

an' iscalc+lations  sp+rring post+ring an' provocations that lea'to +ninten'e' conse7+ences  0 4oth /hu%dides and )) remind us of a

se%ond %luster of fa%tors that in these %onditions %an 0e%ome the trigger for #ar!

naely entangling relationships with allies 0  In an%ient Bree%e, an atta%1 0Cor%ra (no# Corfu. on Corinth for%ed Sarta to %ome to its defense, lea3ing Athens little %hoi%e 0ut to 0a%1 u itsall$ In )) the Austro-8ungarian meror too1 the assassination as an oortunit to reesta0lish his authorit inSer0ia, Russia felt o0liged to %ome to the res%ue of its ;rthodo? %ousins in the 4al1ans, Berman suorted itsAustro-8ungarian all in the hoe that su%%ess in the 4al1ans #ould ma1e it a more 3alua0le %ounter0alan%e to theRussian-Fren%h threat, and the rest 0e%ame histor$ As Chris Clar1Js ne# 0oo1, /he Slee#al1ers, e?lains, theseleaders ro%eeded M#at%hful 0ut unseeing, haunted 0 dreams, et 0lind to the realit of the horror the #ere a0outto 0ring into the #orld$M 2hat a0out +)G Can #e s1et%h a s%enario toda that %ould slee#al1 to #arG

Fortunatel, not easil$ ;f %ourse, there %ould  #ell 0e in%idents in  or o3er the So+th or

8ast China Sea  in #hi%h US and Chinese #arshis or air%raft %ollide$ Re%all, thiso%%urred in +) near 8ainan Island, #hen a hotrodding Chinese ilot %aused a U$S$s%raft to ma1e an emergen% landing in China$ /ense moments ensued, 0ut 0oth go3ernments%ontained themsel3es and the %risis #as resol3ed$ Re%entl a Chinese shi in the South China Sea #ould ha3erammed an Ameri%an #arshi had the US %atain not %hanged %ourse at the last minute$ 2hile laing %hi%1en #ithmilitar shis and air%raft is foolish, 0oth the US and China ha3e M#argamedM these ossi0ilities so thoroughl that

it is reasona0le to e?e%t adult suer3ision 0efore matters get out of hand$ 9ore pro.leatic are

potential confrontations .etween :apan an' China $ 'aan is Ameri%aJs rin%ialall in Asia, and the US-'aan Nutual Defense /reat %ommits the US to %ome to its defense$ 2hether 1no#ingl orun#ittingl, #hen the US returned ;1ina#a to 'aan in )O+, it in%luded a string of largel un1no#n islands in theast China Sea %alled the Sen1a1us$ ;n Chinese mas, these are named the Diaous, and China %laims them as itso#n$ 8istori%all, one of the surest redi%tors of hostilit 0et#een nations are territorial disutes$ ('aan and Russia

ha3e still not signed a ea%e treat for the #ar that ended in ) 0e%ause the Russians %ontrol four islands the 'aanese regard as theirs$. Claims a0out others sei6ing Mour territorM stir nationalisti% assions in auto%ra%ies anddemo%ra%ies ali1e$ Noreo3er, as the Austro-8ungarian %ase demonstrates 3i3idl, nations in de%line feelin%reasingl inse%ure and 0e%ome more sus%eti0le to fantasies that romise to restore their rightful la%e 0 a0old stro1e$ For 'aanese, the last t#ent ears are Mlost de%adesM of e%onomi% stagnation and national de%line in#hi%h China o3ertoo1 and then disla%ed them as the se%ond largest e%onom in the #orld$ 'aanJs rime NinisterA0e %ame to o#er determined to re3i3e e%onomi% gro#th at home and rese%t for 'aan a0road$ 4 radi%al%hanges in 'aanese monetar oli%, in%luding its o#n 3ersion of 7uantitati3e easing, de%ades of disinKation ha3e0een re3ersed, and 'aanJs e%onom is sho#ing modest signs of re%o3er$ A0eJs grander am0itions, ho#e3er, are tore0uild 'aanJs militar o#er, re3ise #hat man 'aanese see as a US-imosed ea%e treat that ended 2orld 2arII, signi&%antl in%rease 'aanJs defense sending, and demonstrate that 'aan %an stand u to defend its o#n

territor$ /hus m most li1el s%enario for #ar in +) #ould 0egin #ith initiati3es li1eChina Js re%ent unilateral de%laration of an e?%lusi3e air 6one o3er the islands in theast China Sea that trigger es%alator resonses 0 'aan leading to the do#ning of a lane or sin1ing of a shi #ith s%ores of %asualties$ /here %ould follo# a ro%ess of retaliator

ris1-ta1ing in #hi%h ea%h resonds to the other, rodu%ing a small na3al and air %onKi%t 0et#een 'aan and China atsea in #hi%h do6ens of shis and lanes are destroed$ ?e%ting the US 5a3 and Air For%e to ha3e its 0a%1, and

%ertain that together, 'aanese and US militar for%es %urrentl ha3e de%isi3e sueriorit, 'aaneseoliti%ians %ould adot a strateg of Mtit PM for MtatM and e?e%t China to 0a%1 do#n$Students of de%isions 0 the regime that has go3erned China sin%e ) #ould not 0e so sure$ As /alor Fra3el’sanalsis of Chinese uses or for%e in territorial disutes o3er the ast si? de%ades &nds, in %ases #here the #ereunam0iguousl militaril #ea1er than their oonent, China has 0een three times as li1el to go to #ar as in %asesin #hi%h the had the uer hand$ Ameri%ans should re%all the 9orean 2ar #here a Chinese Communist regime thathad not et e3en %onsolidated %ontrol o3er its %ore entered the #ar as the US mar%hed >ust south of the :alu, foughtthe US 0a%1 to the *th arallel, and for%ed the US to settle for an armisti%e$ 2ill +) 0ring another Breat 2arG N

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0et is almost %ertainl not, 0ut #ith a note of %aution$ Clais that war is inconceiva.le

are not stateents a.o+t what is possi.le in the worl' .+t rather

a.o+t what o+r liite' in's can conceive0  /he fa%t that residents ;0ama and Qi

understand that #ar #ould 0e foll for 0oth China and the US is rele3ant 0ut not disositi3e$ None of the

lea'ers  in 8+rope of 11" wo+l' have chosen the war they got an'

that in the en' they all lost0  4 ))*, the 9aiser #as gone, the Austro-8ungarian miredissol3ed, the /sar o3erthro#n 0 the 4olshe3i1s, Fran%e 0led for a generation, and ngland shorn of the Ko#er of

its outh and treasure$ Bi3en a %han%e for a do-o3er, none of the leaders #ould ha3emade the %hoi%es he did$ /hus as #e loo1 for#ard #ith hoe to the ear ahead,reKe%tion on mista1es made a %entur ago reminds us of the erils of %omla%en%$

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#NC Yes War&reat power war is li;ely- the

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1NC Yes 86tinctionN+clear war ca+ses e6tinctionChoi 11V#riter for 5ational Beograhi% 5e#s Charles $, +"++"+)), 5ationalBeograhi%, “Small 5u%lear 2ar Could Re3erse Blo0al 2arming for :earsG,”htt!""ne#s$nationalgeograhi%$%om"ne#s"+))"+"))++-nu%lear-#ar-#inter-glo0al-#arming-en3ironment-s%ien%e-%limate-%hange", DS3en a regional nu%lear #ar %ould sar1 Munre%edentedM glo0al %ooling and redu%erainfall for ears , a%%ording to U$S$ go3ernment %omuter models$ 2idesreadfamine and disease #ould li1el follo# , e?erts se%ulate$ During the Cold 2ar a nu%lear e?%hange0et#een suero#ersVsu%h as the one feared for ears 0et#een the United States and the former So3iet UnionV#as redi%ted to

%ause a Mnu%lear #inter$M In that s%enario hundreds of nu%lear e?losions sar1 huge &res , #hosesmo1e, dust, and ash 0lot out the sun for #ee1s amid a 0a%1dro of dangerousradiation le3els$ Nu%h of humanit e3entuall dies of star3ation and disease$ /oda, #ith the United Statesthe onl standing suero#er, nu%lear #inter is little more than a nightmare$ 4ut nu%lear #ar remains a 3er realthreat Vfor instan%e, 0et#een de3eloing-#orld nu%lear o#ers , su%h as India anda1istan$ /o see #hat %limate eust $ er%ent of the #orldJs%urrent nu%lear arsenal$ (See a 5ational Beograhi% maga6ine feature on #eaons of mass destru%tion$. /heresear%hers redi%ted the resulting &res #ould 1i%1 u roughl &3e million metri%tons of 0la%1 %ar0on into the uer art of the trooshere, the lo#est laer of thearthJs atmoshere$ In 5ASA %limate models, this %ar0on then a0sor0ed solar heat and, li1e ahot-air 0alloon, 7ui%1l lofted e3en higher, #here the soot #ould ta1e mu%h longerto %lear from the s1$ (Related! MJ5u%lear Ar%haeologistsJ Find 2orld 2ar II lutonium$M. Re3ersing Blo0al 2armingG /heglo0al %ooling %aused 0 these high %ar0on %louds #ouldnJt 0e as %atastrohi% as asuero#er-3ersus-suero#er nu%lear #inter, 0ut Mthe e

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#NC Yes 86tinction8ven regional wars ca+ses e6tinction@o.oc; an' Toon 1$V/oon! %hair of the Det of Atmosheri% and ;%eani%S%ien%es and a mem0er of the La0orator for Atmosheri% and Sa%e hsi%s at theUni3ersit of Colorado W 4oulder$ Ro0o%1 is a ro< of atmosheri% s%ien%e atRutgers Uni3ersit in 5e# 4runs#i%1, 5e# 'erse Lo%al 5u%lear 2ar, Blo0alSu

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teragrams of smo1e, and the 0om0s hitting India #ould generate four (one teragram e7uals a million metri% tons.$ Satelliteo0ser3ations of a%tual forest &res ha3e sho#n that smo1e %an 0e lofted u through the trooshere (the 0ottom laer of theatmoshere. and sometimes then into the lo#er stratoshere (the laer >ust a0o3e, e?tending to a0out miles.$ /oon and /ur%oalso did some M0a%1 of the en3eloeM %al%ulations of the ossi0le %limate ima%t of the smo1e should it enter the stratoshere$ /helarge magnitude of su%h eust a fra%tion of the #orld’s arsenal$] 2hat the sa#

#as the stu< of nightmares!] Firestorms #ould 0el%h  o3er million tons of ash into the s1$ ] /he ash #ould a0sor0 the sun’s ras, %ausing deadl %ooling on the surfa%e$ ] Blo0altemeratures #ould lummet m nearl degrees Farenheit on a3erage, #ith mostof 5orth Ameri%a e?erien%ing #inters that #ould 0e %older 0 to ) degrees$ ]Lethal frosts #ould %o3er the arth and redu%e the gro#ing seasons 0u a0out amonth for se3eral ears$ ] Rainfall and other re%iitation #ould 0e redu%ed 0 a0out) er%ent, triggering #orld#ide droughts and leading to #ild&res in the Ama6on,

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#hi%h #ould se# more smo1e into the atmoshere$]  /he s1 ash #ould heat thestratoshere and a%%elerate the %hemi%al rea%tions that destro the o6one laer $ ]

 /he intense ultra3iolet radiation that #ould get through to the surfa%e #ould 0e adramati% threat to human health and damage fragile e%osstems on land and sea$ ]

“All in all, these eects wo+l' .e very 'etriental to foo' pro'+ction

an' to ecosystes ,” Nills said$

refer o+r evi'ence- longevity of st+'y speci

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o6one %hemistr and atmosheri% dnami%s$ ] /he s%ientists ran a total of se3ensimulations, %omaring a hotheti%al #ar 0et#een t#o nations that ha3ede3eloed nu%lear arms relati3el re%entl (India and a1istan. #ith %ontrolsimulations in #hi%h there #as no nu%lear #ar$ ] “It’s su%h a %omle? ro%ess that ou need

sohisti%ated %limate models to understand it,” said 5CAR s%ientist Ni%hael Nills, the lead author$ “ As #e  get

a ore 'etaile' pict+re , #e &nd that the atmosheri% eust asmall fra%tion of the #orld’s aro?imatel )O, nu%lear #eaons$

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Sall Fars

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1NC Disease DefenseNo ipact to 'iseaseosner E4 (Ri%hard A, >udge on the U$S$ Court of Aeals, Se3enth Cir%uit, andsenior le%turer at the Uni3ersit of Chi%ago La# S%hool, 2inter$ “Catastrohe! thedo6en most signi&%ant %atastrohi% ris1s and #hat #e %an do a0out them$”htt!""&ndarti%les$%om""arti%les"miY1ms1e"isYY))"aiYn+)EO)"gY+GtagH%ontent%ol), Nar%h )), +.

 :et the fa%t that 8omo saiens has managed to sur3i3e e3er disease to assail it inthe +, ears or so of its e?isten%e is a sour%e of genuine %omfort, at least ifthe fo%us is on e?tin%tion e3ents$ /here ha3e 0een enormousl destru%ti3e lagues,su%h as the 4la%1 Death, smallo?, and no# AIDS, 0ut none has %ome %lose todestroing the entire human ra%e$ /here is a 0iologi%al reason$ 5atural sele%tionfa3ors germs of limited lethalit the are &tter in an e3olutionar sense 0e%ausetheir genes are more li1el to 0e sread if the germs do not 1ill their hosts too7ui%1l$ /he AIDS 3irus is an e?amle of a lethal 3irus, #holl natural, that 0 lingdormant et infe%tious in its host for ears ma?imi6es its sread$ :et there is no

danger that AIDS #ill destro the entire human ra%e$ /he li1elihood of a naturalandemi% that #ould %ause the e?tiin%tion of the human ra%e is ro0a0l e3en lesstoda than in the ast (e?%et in rehistori% times, #hen eole li3ed in small,s%attered 0ands, #hi%h #ould ha3e limited the sread of disease., desite #iderhuman %onta%ts that ma1e it more di@%ult to lo%ali6e an infe%tious disease$ /hereason is imro3ements in medi%al s%ien%e$ 4ut the %omfort is a small one$andemi%s %an still imose enormous losses and resist re3ention and %ure! thelesson of the AIDS andemi%$ And there is al#as a lust time$

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#ea1nesses in their health sstems in #as that #ill mean ermanentimro3ements for the management of all diseases$ In addition, sstems of data%olle%tion and reorting, and ne# atterns of oenl and fran1l %ommuni%ating

information to the u0li% #ill hold the #orld in good stead #hen the ne6t new

'isease eerges  and the ne?t inKuen6a andemi% 0rea1s out$

A+rn o+t stops 'iseaseLe'er.erg E ('oshua, rofessor of Beneti%s \ Stanford Uni3ersit S%hool ofNedi%ine, idemi% /he 2orld of Infe%tious Disease, $ ), ).

 /he toll of the fourteenth-%entur lague, the M4la%1 Death,M #as %loser to one third$If the 0ugsJ otential to de3elo adatations that %ould 1ill us o< #ere the #holestor, #e #ould not 0e here$ 8o#e3er, #ith 3er rare e?%etions, our mi%ro0ialad3ersaries ha3e a shared interest in our sur3i3al $ Almost an athogen %omes to adead end #hen #e die it &rst has to %ommuni%ate itself to another host in order tosur3i3e$ So histori%all, the reall se3ere host- athogen intera%tions ha3e resultedin a #ieout of 0oth host and athogen$ 2e humans are still here 0e%ause, so far,the athogens that ha3e atta%1ed us ha3e #ill-nill had an interest in our sur3i3al$

 /his is a 3er deli%ate 0alan%e, and it is easil distur0ed, often in the #a1e of large-s%ale e%ologi%al usets$

5+ans will a'apt&la'well E4 (Nal%olm, /he 5e# Reu0li%, ?%erted in idemi%s! ;osingXie#oints, $ +, 'ul )O, ).In lagues and eoles, #hi%h aeared in )OO$ 2illiam Ne5eill ointed out that_#hile man’s e

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1NC Aioterror DefenseNo ris; of a .ioterror attac; an' there won!t .e retaliation -yo+r evi'ence is hype9atisha; E1$ (Nartin, Blo0al Se%urit 5e#s#ire, “U$S$ Unli1el to Resond to

4iologi%al /hreat 2ith 5u%lear Stri1e, ?erts Sa,”,htt!""###$glo0alse%uritne#s#ire$org"gsn"n#Y+)+YO)$h, Aril +, +).2AS8I5B/;5 -- /he U nited S tates is not li1el to use nu%lear for%e to resond to

a 0iologi%al #eaons threat, e3en though the ;0ama administration left oen

that otion in its re%ent udate to the nationJs nu%lear #eaons oli%, e?ertssa (See BS5, Aril ++.$ M /he notion that #e are in imminent danger of

%onfronting a s%enario in #hi%h hundreds of thousands of eole are ding in the

streets of 5e# :or1 as a %onse7uen%e of a 0iologi%al #eaons atta%1 is fan%iful,Msaid Ni%hael Noodie, a %onsultant #ho ser3ed as assistant dire%tor for

multilateral aor harm to the United States$ MBi3en the %atastrohi%otential of 0iologi%al #eaons and the raid a%e of 0iote%hnolog

de3eloment, the United States reser3es the right to ma1e an ad>ustment in the

assuran%e that ma 0e #arranted 0 the e3olution and roliferation of the

0iologi%al #eaons threat and U$S$ %aa%ities to %ounter that threat,M the osturere3ie# reort sas$ /he %a3eat #as in%luded in the do%ument 0e%ause Min theor,

0iologi%al #eaons %ould 1ill millions of eole,M Bar Samore, senior 2hite

8ouse %oordinator for 2ND %ounterterrorism and arms %ontrol, said last #ee1after an e3ent at the Carnegie ndo#ment for International ea%e$ As1ed if the

2hite 8ouse had identi&ed a arti%ular te%hnologi%al threshold that %ould

ro3o1e a nu%lear stri1e, Samore relied! M5o, and if #e did #e o03iousl #ouldnot 0e #illing to ut it out 0e%ause %ountries #ould sa, J;h, #e %an go right u

http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100429_7133.phphttp://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100429_7133.php

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to this le3el and it #onJt %hange oli%$JM MItJs deli0eratel am0iguous,M he toldBlo0al Se%urit 5e#s#ire$ /he do%umentJs 1e 7uali&%ations ha3e 0e%ome a

lightning rod for %riti%ism 0 Reu0li%an la#ma1ers #ho argue the eliminate the

%ountrJs re3ious oli% of M%al%ulated am0iguit,M in #hi%h U$S$ leaders leftoen the ossi0ilit of e?e%uting a nu%lear stri1e in resonse to 3irtuall an

hostile a%tion against the United States or its allies (see BS5, Aril ).$ :ete?erts sa there are a num0er of reasons #h the United States is not li1el to

use a nu%lear #eaon to eliminate a non-nu%lear threat$ It %ould ro3e di@%ult forU$S$ leaders to %ome u #ith a list of aroriate targets to stri1e #ith a nu%lear

#arhead follo#ing a 0iologi%al or %hemi%al e3ent, former Defense Underse%retar

for oli% 2alter Slo%om0e said during a re%ent anel dis%ussion at the 8udsonInstitute$ MI donJt thin1 nu%lear #eaons are ne%essar to deter these 1inds of

atta%1s gi3en U$S$ dominan%e in %on3entional militar for%e,M a%%ording to

Bregor 9o0lent6, deut dire%tor of the 4iodefense Braduate rogram at BeorgeNason Uni3ersit in 5orthern Xirginia$ M/hereJs a 0igger do#nside to the nu%lear

nonroliferation side of the ledger for threatening to use nu%lear #eaons in

those %ir%umstan%es than there is the 0ene&t of a%tuall deterring a %hemi%al or

0iologi%al atta%1,M 9o0lent6 said during a re%ent anel dis%ussion at the 'amesNartin Center$ /he nonroliferation 0ene&ts for restri%ting the role of strategi%

#eaons to deterring nu%lear atta%1s out#eigh the MmarginalM redu%tion in the

%ountrJs a0ilit to stem the use of 0iologi%al #eaons, he said$ In addition, theUnited States has e

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surrising - su%h #eaons do not %ause mass destru%tion$ Indeed, #hether used 0 states, terrorgrous or disersed in industrial a%%idents, the tend to 0e far less destru%ti3e than%on3entional #eaons$ JIf #e stoed se%ulating a0out things that might haen inthe future and loo1ed instead at #hat has haened in the ast, #eJd see that ourfears a0out 2ND are misla%edJ, he sas$ :et su%h fears remain #idesread$ ost-")), Ameri%an and4ritish leaders ha3e issued dire #arnings a0out terrorists getting hold of 2ND and %ausing mass murder and

mahem$ resident Beorge 2 4ush has so1en of terrorists #ho, Jif the e3er gained #eaons of mass destru%tionJ,#ould J1ill hundreds of thousands, #ithout hesitation and #ithout mer%J ().$ /he 4ritish go3ernment has sent+*million on sto%1iling millions of smallo? 3a%%ines, e3en though thereJs no e3iden%e that terrorists ha3e gota%%ess to smallo?, #hi%h #as eradi%ated as a natural disease in the )Os and no# e?ists onl in t#o high-se%uritla0s in Ameri%a and Russia (+.$ In ++, 4ritish nurses 0e%ame the &rst in the #orld to get training in ho# to deal#ith the 3i%tims of 0ioterrorism (.$ /he U9 8ome ;@%eJs ++-age amhlet on ho# to sur3i3e a terror atta%1,u0lished last month, in%luded tis on #hat to do in the e3ent of a J%hemi%al, 0iologi%al or radiologi%al atta%1J(JNo3e a#a from the immediate sour%e of dangerJ, it usefull ad3ised.$ Sine-%hilling 0oo1s su%h as lague 2ars! A

 /rue Stor of 4iologi%al 2arfare, /he 5e# Fa%e of /errorism! /hreats From 2eaons of Nass Destru%tion and /heSur3i3al Buide! 2hat to Do in a 4iologi%al, Chemi%al or 5u%lear mergen% se%ulate o3er #hat 1ind of horrors2ND might #rea1$ /X do%udramas, mean#hile, e?lore ho# 4ritain might %oe #ith a smallo? assault and #hat#ould haen if London #ere Jdirt nu1edJ (.$ /he term J#eaons of mass destru%tionJ refers to three tes of#eaons! nu%lear, %hemi%al and 0iologi%al$ A %hemi%al #eaon is an #eaon that uses a manufa%tured %hemi%al,su%h as sarin, mustard gas or hdrogen %anide, to 1ill or in>ure$ A 0iologi%al #eaon uses 0a%teria or 3iruses, su%has smallo? or anthra?, to %ause destru%tion - indu%ing si%1ness and disease as a means of undermining enemfor%es or inKi%ting %i3ilian %asualties$ 2e &nd su%h #eaons reulsi3e, 0e%ause of the horri0le #a in #hi%h the3i%tims %on3ulse and die - 0ut the aear to 0e less Jdestru%ti3eJ than %on3entional #eaons$ J2e 1no# that

nu1es are massi3el destru%ti3e, there is a lot of e3iden%e for thatJ, sas Raoort$ 4ut #hen it %omes to%hemi%al and 0iologi%al #eaons, Jthe e3iden%e suggests that #e should %all themM#eaons of minimum destru%tionM , not mass destru%tionJ, he sas$ Chemi%al #eaons ha3e most%ommonl 0een used 0 states, in militar #arfare$ Raoort e?lored 3arious state uses of %hemi%als o3er the asthundred ears! 0oth sides used them in the First 2orld 2ar Ital deloed %hemi%als against the thioians in the)s the 'aanese used %hemi%als against the Chinese in the )s and again in the Se%ond 2orld 2ar gtand Li0a used them in the :emen and Chad in the ost#ar eriod most re%entl, Saddam 8usseinJs Ira7 used%hemi%al #eaons, &rst in the #ar against Iran ()*-)**. and then against its o#n 9urdish oulation at the tail-end of the Iran-Ira7 #ar$ In ea%h instan%e, sas Raoort, %hemi%al #eaons #ere used more in deseration thanfrom a osition of strength or a desire to %ause mass destru%tion$ J/he e3iden%e is that states rarel use them e3en#hen the ha3e themJ, he has #ritten$ J;nl #hen a militar stalemate has de3eloed, #hi%h 0elligerents #ho ha3e0e%ome deserate #ant to 0rea1, are the used$J (. As to #hether su%h use of %hemi%als #as e

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similar to state use - in that it is rare and,  in terms of %ausing mass destru%tion, not3er eournalist and author 'ohn ara%hini, #ho sas that o3er the ast +ears onl four signi&%ant attemts 0 terrorists to use 2ND ha3e 0een re%orded$ /hemost euring o3er E soldiers 0ut 1illing none$ /he /amil /igersJ use of %hemi%als angered their

suort 0ase, #hen some of the %hlorine drifted 0a%1 into /amil territor - %on&rmingRaoortJs 3ie# that one ro0lem #ith using unredi%ta0le and un#ield %hemi%al and 0iologi%al #eaons o3er

%on3entional #eaons is that the %ost %an 0e as great Jto the atta%1er as to the atta%1edJ$  /he /igers ha3e not used 2ND sin%e$

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#NC Aioterror DefenseNo e6tinction - history proves8aster.roo; E3 (Bregg, Senior Fello# \ 5e# Reu0li%, “2e’re All Bonna Die=”,2ired Naga6ine, 'ul, htt!""###$#ired$%om"#ired"ar%hi3e"))$O"doomsda$htmlGgH)Ttoi%HTtoi%YsetH.

$ Berm #arfare=Li1e %hemi%al agents, 0io logi%al #eaons ha3e ne3er li3ed u totheir 0illing in oular %ulture$ Consider the ) medi%al thriller ;ut0rea1, in #hi%ha highl %ontagious 3irus ta1es out entire to#ns$ /he realit is 7uite di

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reali6ation that the U$S$ Bo3ernment has 0een using the o3er#helming roortion of its rele3ant resour%es to reare for the #rong %ontingen%$

Weather .loc;s an' solves 'eath tollLa7+er E (2alter, Co%hair of the International Resear%h Coun%il at /he Center

for Strategi% and International Studies, “/he 5e# /errorism”.

Ironi%all, the ma>or fa%tor retarding the use of gases and germs 0 states andterrorists is no the re3ulsion or moral %onstraints 0ut te%hni%al di@%ulties$ “Ideal”%onditions for an atta%1 seldom if e3er e?ist, and the ossi0ilit of things going#rong is almost unlimited,  aerosols ma nor fun%tion, the #ind ma 0lo# in the#rong dire%tion, missiles %arring a deadl load ma land in the #rong la%e orneutrali6e the germs on ima%t$ In the %ourse of time these te%hni%al di@%ultiesma 0e o3er%ome, 0ut it is still 3er li1el that roughl nine out of ten of the earlattemts 0 terrorists to #age %hemi%al or 0iologi%al #arfare #ill fail$ 4ut the #illnot ass unnoti%ed the authorities and the u0li% #ill 0e alerted, and the elementof surrise lost $ /he sear%h for eretrators ma 0egin e3en 0efore the &rst

su%%essful atta%1$ And #hat has >ust 0een said #ith regard to terrorists ma also 0eto state terrorism$

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1NC Disease T+rnDT prevents 'isease sprea' an' is less invasive than N,SCattleNetwor; 13 (Samuel Ro0erts 5o0le Foundation, “5e# animalidenti&%ation rules aid disease tra%ea0ilit”, htt!""###$%attlenet#or1$%om"%attle-ne#s"5e#-animal-identi&%ation-rules-aid-disease-tra%ea0ilit-+*)+)$html ,Na+, +).;n Nar%h )), +), the United States Deartment of Agri%ulture (USDA. initiated the A nimal D isease

 / ra%ea0il it rogram (AD/. to tra%1 interstate li3esto%1 mo3ement $ A%%ording to theUSDA, “Animal disease tra%ea0ilit, or 1no#ing #here diseased or at-ris1 animals are, #here the ha3e0een and #hen, is 3er imortant to ensuring a raid resonse #hen animal diseasee3ents ta1e la%e $ /his #ill redu%e the num0er of animal o#ners ima%ted 0 a nanimal disease e3ent and redu%e the e%onomi% strain on o#ners and aurisdi%tion of thestate’s regulations$

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/New-animal-identification-rules-aid-disease-traceability-208192501.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/New-animal-identification-rules-aid-disease-traceability-208192501.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/New-animal-identification-rules-aid-disease-traceability-208192501.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/New-animal-identification-rules-aid-disease-traceability-208192501.html

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86ports

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1NC 8nvironent Defense8nvironental iproveents now I their evi'ence ignoreslong ter tren's5aywar' 11 Ste3en , ameri%an author, oliti%al %ommentator, and oli%

s%holar$ 8e argues for li0ertarian and %onser3ati3e 3ie#oints in his #ritings$ 8e#rites fre7uentl on the toi%s of en3ironmentalism, la#, e%onomi%s, and u0li%oli%$+)) Almana% of n3ironmental /rends 0 Ste3en F$ 8a#ard Aril +)) IS45-)! O*-)-+OE-)O-,htt!""###$a%i&%resear%h$org"do%Li0"+)))Yalmana%+))$df 

ui%1! 2hat’s the largest u0li%-oli% su%%ess stor in Ameri%an so%iet o3er the last generationG /he dramati% redu%tion in the %rime rate, #hi%h has heled ma1e ma>or Ameri%an %ities li3a0le againG ;r #elfarereform, #hi%h sa# the nation’s #elfare rolls fall 0 more than half sin%e the earl )sG 4oth of these

a%%omlishments ha3e re%ei3ed #ide media attention$ :et the right ans#er might #ell 0e theen3ironment$ As Figure ) dislas, the redu%tion in air ollution is %omara0le in magnitude to theredu%tion in the #elfare rolls, and greater than the redu%tion in the %rime rateV0oth %ele0rated as ma>or u0li%-

oli% su%%ess stories of the last t#o de%ades$ Aggregate emissions of the si? “%riteria” ollutants)

regulated under the Clean Air A%t ha3e fallen  0 43 percent  sin%e )O, #hile the roortion of theoulation re%ei3ing #elfare assistan%e is do#n * er%ent from )O, and the %rime rate is onl E$ er%ent 0elo#its )O le3el$ (And as #e shall see, this aggregate nation#ide redu%tion in emissions greatl understates the a%tual

imro3ement in am0ient air 7ualit in the areas #ith the #orst le3els of air ollution$. Neasures for water

7+ality ,  to6ic  -%hemi%al e6pos+re , soil erosion , forest growth  ,

wetlan's  , an'  se3eral other areas of   en3ironmental %on%ern show siilar

positive  tren's  , as this Almana% reorts$ /o arahrase Nar1 /#ain, reorts of the demise of 

the en3ironment ha3e 0een  greatly e6aggerate' $ Noreo3er, there is good reason to

0elie3e that these 1inds of imro3ements #ill 0e e?erien%ed in the rest of the

#orld o3er the %ourse of this %entur$ 2e’ll  e?amine some of the earl e3iden%e that thisis alread starting to o%%ur $  /he %hief dri3ers of en3ironmental imro3ement aree%onomi% gro#th, %onstantl in%reasing resour%e e@%ien%, te%hnologi%al inno3ation inollution %ontrol, and the deeening of en3ironmental 3alues among the Ameri%anu0li% that ha3e translated to %hanged 0eha3ior and %onsumer referen%es$Bo3ernment regulation has laed a 3ital role, to 0e sure, 0ut in the grand s%heme of things regulation %an 0eunderstood as a lagging indi%ator, often a%hie3ing results at needlessl high %ost, and sometimes failing %omletel$2ere it not for rising abuen%e and te%hnologi%al inno3ation, regulation #ould ha3e mu%h the same eoritiesV

sometimes as high as O er%entVtelling ollsters that the thin1 en3ironmental7ualit in the United States is getting #orse instead of  0etter, and #ill %ontinue toget #orse in the future$ ;ne reason for this state of oinion is media %o3erage,#hi%h emhasi6es 0ad ne#s and %risis another reason is en3ironmental ad3o%a%grous, for #hom good ne#s is 0ad ne#s$ As the %li%he goes, ou %an’t sell man ne#saers #ithheadlines a0out airlanes landing safel, or a0out an oil tan1er do%1ing #ithout a sill$ Similarl, slo#, long-term trends don’t ma1e for good headline %o$ I5/R;DUC/I;5introdu%tion Imro3ing

 /rends!Causes and Conse7uen%esNost en3ironmental %ommentar d#ells on the la#s and regulations #e ha3eadotedto a%hie3e our goals, 0ut it is essential to understand the more imortant role of te%hnologand e%onomi%

http://www.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20110419_almanac2011.pdfhttp://www.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20110419_almanac2011.pdf

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gro#th in 0ringing a0out fa3ora0le en3ironmental trends$ /he0est #a to see this is to loo1 at some long-termtrends in en3ironmental 7ualit thatredate modern en3ironmental legislation$/o 0e sure, the earliest hases of theIndustrial Re3olution led to se3ere en3ironmentaldegradation$ 4ut the ine?ora0le ro%ess of te%hnologi%alinno3ation andthe dri3e for e@%ien% 0egan to remed mu%h of this damage far earlier than is%ommonl er%ei3ed$

In addition, ne# te%hnologies that #e %ommonl regard as en3ironmentall destru%ti3eoften rela%ed older modes of human a%ti3it that #ere far #orse 0 %omarison$ Agood e?amle is the introdu%tion of %oal for heating andenerg in 4ritain$

No ipact to the environent8aster.roo; E4 (Bregg, Distinguished Fello# W /he Full0right Foundation andReuters Columnist, “A Noment on arth,” $ +, ).In the aftermath of e3ents su%h as Lo3e Canal or the ??on Xalde6 oil sill, e3er referen%e to the en3ironment isrefa%ed #ith the ad>e%ti3e Mfragile$M MFragile en3ironmentM has 0e%ome a #elded hrase of the modern le?i%on, li1eMaging hiieM or Mfugiti3e &nan%ier$M 4ut the notion of a fragile en3ironment is rofoundl #rong$ Indi3idual animals,

lants, and eole are distressingl fragile$ /he en3ironment that %ontains them is %lose toindestru%ti0le$ /he li3ing en3ironment of arth has sur3i3ed i%e ages0om0ardments of %osmi% radiation more deadl than atomi% fallout solar radiationmore o#erful than the #orst-%ase ro>e%tion for o6one deletion thousand-ear eriods of intense 3ol%anism releasing glo0al air ollution far #orse than that made 0 an fa%tor re3ersals of the lanetJsmagneti% oles the rearrangement of %ontinents transformation of lains into mountain ranges and of seas into

lains Ku%tuations of o%ean %urrents and the >et stream -foot 3a%illations in sea le3els shortening andlengthening of the seasons %aused 0 shifts in the lanetar a?is %ollisions of asteroids and %omets0earing far more for%e than manJs nu%lear arsenals and the ears #ithout summerthat follo#ed these ima%ts$  :et hearts 0eat on , and etals unfold still$ 2ere theen3ironment fragile it #ould ha3e e?ired man eons 0efore the ad3ent of theindustrial a

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#NC 8nvironent DefenseDo+.le .in'- either the environent is resilient or its'estr+ction is inevita.leLa2ar+s E1$ (Ri%hard '$ La6arus, rof of la# at Beorgeto#n Uni3ersit La#

Center, “8uman 5ature, the La#s of 5ature, and the 5ature of n3ironmental La#”+ XA$ 5X/L$ L$'$ +)-+E), 'anuar +).

Some en3ironmental ollution is , of %ourse, una3oida0le$ 4asi% human lifere7uires the %onsumtion of the surrounding natural en3ironment$ 2hile the FirstLa# of /hermodnami%s ro3ides for the %onser3ation of energ (and %lassi%al hsi%s for the %onser3ation

;f mass.,)E the Se%ond La# ro3ides for the ine3ita0le in%reases in entro thatresult from human a%ti3it$ /he term MentroM refers to the degree of disorderin a sstem$ For instan%e, as energ is transformed from one form to another,some energ is lost as heat as the energ de%reases, the disorder in thesstem, and hen%e the entro, in%reases$ IS 5atural resour%e destru%tion anden3ironmental %ontamination is a form of entro $ Disorder in the e%osstemis in%reased #hen %ommon resour%es su%h as air and #ater are olluted$

Disorder is li1e#ise in%reased #hene3er %omle? natural resour%es are 0ro1endo#n into smaller arts$ In %onsuming natural resour%es to ro3ide the 0asi%ne%essities of energ, food, shelter, and %lothing, human1ind ne%essarilin%reases entro in arts of the e%osstem in the form of olluted glo0alresour%es and destroed natural resour%es$ Fundamental human 0iologi%alro%esses %omel it$ 8uman life deends, as life does in man animals, on aseries of %hemi%al rea%tions #ithin the %ells of the human 0od %aa0le of 0rea1ing do#n %omle? %hemi%al%omounds su%h as glu%ose into its %omonent arts of %ar0on dio?ide and #ater$) /he te%hni%al name ofthe ne%essar 0io%hemi%al ro%ess for the 0rea1do#n of glu%ose is %ar0ohdrate %ata0olism, #hi%h itself%onsists of three ma>or stages! gl%osis, %itri% a%id %%le (1no#n as the M9re0s %%leM. andhoshorlation$+ For the uroses of this essa, ho#e3er, #hat is imortant for the nons%ienti&% readerto understand is ho# these man 0io%hemi%al ro%esses ultimatel deend on the 0rea1ing do#n of more%omle? and ordered %hemi%al %omounds into less %omle? and more disordered %hemi%al elements$Some natural resour%e destru%tion and en3ironmental ollution are ne%essaril imli%ated 0 su%h

ro%esses$ As energ is transformed from one form to another, natural resour%esare %onsumed and %ontamination of e?isting natural resour%es results$ /o thee?tent, moreo3er, that it is human nature to see1 to sur3i3e, it is humannature to underta1e a%ti3ities that %ause su%h natural resour%e destru%tionand en3ironmental ollution$ /hat %entral threshold roosition should 0e non%ontro3ersial$ 2hatis no dou0t more %ontro3ersial is #hether it is similarl human nature to %onsume the natural en3ironment

in a nonsustaina0le fashion$ Barrett 8ardinJs %lassi% arti%le M/he /raged of theCommons,M u0lished in S%ien%e in )E*,+) o

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ea%h ursuing his o#n 0est interest in a so%iet that 0elie3es in the freedomof the %ommons$ Freedom in a %ommons 0rings ruin to all$++ 8ardin des%ri0es histhesis in the limited %onte?t of human nature fa%ed #ith a asture for animal gra6ing, 0ut it all too easile?tends #ith otentiall %atastrohi% results to man %ontemorar en3ironmental settings$ /he e?ansi3erea%h of modern te%hnolog has turned the on%e seemingl in&nite into the &nite$ oulations of o%ean&sheries %an 0e irre3ersi0l destroed$ Underground a7uifers of drin1ing #ater sulies %an 0e fore3er lost$And, of %ourse, otentiall destru%ti3e glo0al %limate %hange ma o%%ur from in%reased loadings of %ar0on

to the atmoshere from an#here in the glo0e$ Nodern te%hnolog also has its limits, as the nation #astragi%all reminded in the aftermath of 8urri%ane 9atrina this ast ear$ Nodern te%hnolog allo#ed for thede3eloment of a ma>or metroolitan area #here nature, standing alone, #ould ha3e re%luded an su%hossi0ilit$ 5e# ;rleans #as largel 0elo# sea le3el and e?isted onl 0 gra%e of a %omle? series of le3eesdesigned to 1ee #ater from Ko#ing along its natural %ourse$ 3en #hen roerl %onstru%ted, su%h le3eesare no mat%h, ho#e3er, for the enormous for%e of hurri%anes li1e 9atrina, ese%iall #hen thousands ofa%res of surrounding #etlands, #hi%h might ha3e other#ise ro3ided some natural rote%tion from Kood#aters, are &lled to satisf e3er-rising demands for residential, %ommer%ial, and industrial de3eloment$ /heushot! the de3astation of a %it, the loss of human life, and the destru%tion of an in3alua0le a7uati%

e%osstem 0 Kood#aters laden #ith to?i% %ontaminants$+ 8ardinJs %entral insight regardingthe imli%ations of human nature for the natural en3ironment e?tends mu%hfurther, ho#e3er, than to >ust the otential tragi% destru%tion of resour%e%ommons$ a%h of the indi3idual a%tors in 8ardinJs ro

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htt!""###$s%ien%edail$%om"releases"+)""))O+*$htm, Setem0er ),+).

Blo0al degradation of e%osstems is #idel 0elie3ed to threaten human #elfare, eta%%eted measures of #ell-0eing sho# that it is on a3erage imro3ing glo0all, 0othin oor %ountries and ri%h ones$ A team of authors #riting in the Setem0er issue

of 4ioS%ien%e disse%ts e?lanations for this Men3ironmentalistJs arado?$M 5otingthat understanding the arado? is M%riti%al to guiding future management ofe%osstem ser3i%es,M Ciara Raudse-8earne and her %olleagues %on&rm thatimro3ements in aggregate #ell-0eing are real, desite %on3in%ing e3iden%e ofe%osstem de%line$ /hree li1el reasons the identif -- ast in%reases in foodrodu%tion, te%hnologi%al inno3ations that de%oule eole from e%osstems, andtime lags 0efore #ell-0eing is a

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%leaning #ere uniforml #onderful, and it ushered in an age of in%reased %aution ontheir aroriate use$ In the se%ond %hater of her famous 0oo1, Carson #rote, “It isnot m %ontention that %hemi%al inse%ti%ides must ne3er 0e used$ I do %ontendthat_ #e ha3e allo#ed these %hemi%als to 0e used #ith little or no ad3an%ein3estigation of their eor %hallenge in de3eloing aroriateresonses to legitimate ro0lems is that alarmism %at%hes eole’s attention anddra#s them in$ Alarmism is gi3en more #eight than it deser3es, as oli% ma1ersattemt to aease their %onstituen% and the media$ It olari6es the de0aters intogrous of “0elie3ers” and “s1eti%s,” so that reasoned, fa%t-0ased %omromise isdi@%ult to a%hie3e$ 5either of these ase%ts of alarmism is health for thede3eloment of aroriate oli%$ Further, alarmist resonses to 3alid ro0lemsris1 fore%losing otentiall useful resonses 0ased on ingenuit and rogress$ /hereare man e?amles from the energ se%tor #here, in the resen%e of e%onomi%,e@%ien%, or so%ietal demands, the mar1etla%e has resonded 0 de3eloing0etter alternati3es$ /hat is not to sa that #e should 0lissfull s7uander our energresour%es on the %ontrar, #e should 0e %areful to utili6e them #isel$ 4ut energ-resour%e hsteria should not lead us to %ir%um3ent s%ienti&% ad3an%ement 0%herr-i%1ing and fa3oring one arti%ular rela%ement te%hnolog at the e?enseof other romising te%hnologies$ n3ironmental alarmism should 0e ta1en for #hatit isVa natural tenden% of some ortion of the u0li% to lat%h onto the #orst, andmost unli1el, otential out%ome$ Alarmism should not 0e used as the 0asis foroli%$ 2here a real ro0lem e?ists, solutions should 0e 0ased on realit, nothsteria$

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1NC 8nvironent T+rnT/@N% growing cattle is goo' for the environent-se7+esterscar.on an' prevents soil erosionNian 1" (5i%olette 8ahn 5iman-li3esto%1 ran%her, en3ironmental attorne, and

author of Righteous or1%ho! Finding a Life and Bood Food 4eond Fa%tor Farms(+.$ “A%tuall, Raising 4eef Is Bood for thelanet” ,htt!""###$#s>$%om"arti%les"a%tuall-raising-0eef-is-good-for-the-lanet-))O* ,De%$ ), +) E!)+ $m$ /.As a longtime 3egetarian and en3ironmental la#er, I on%e 0ought into these %laims$ 4ut no#, after more than ade%ade of li3ing and #or1ing in the 0usinessVm hus0and, 4ill, founded 5iman Ran%h 0ut left the %oman in

+O, and #e no# ha3e a grass-fed 0eef %omanVI’3e %ome to the oosite 3ie#$ It isn’t >ust that thealarm o3er the en3ironmental eust *c of our greenhouse emissions, #ith 0 far the largestshare o#ing to soil managementVthat is, %ro farming$ A Union of Con%erned S%ientists reort%on%luded that a0out +c of U$S$ greenhouse gases %an 0e lin1ed to %attle and that good

management #ould diminish it further $ /he rimar %on%ern is methane, a otentgreenhouse gas$ 4ut methane from %attle , no# under 3igorous stud 0 agri%ultural %olleges around the#orld, %an 0e mitigated in se3eral #as$ Australian resear%h sho#s that %ertain nutritional sulements%an %ut methane from %attle 0 half$ /hings as intuiti3e as good asture management and aso0s%ure as ro0ust dung 0eetle oulations ha3e all 0een sho#n to redu%e methane$At the same time, %attle are 1e to the #orld’s most romising strateg to %ounter glo0al#arming! restoring %ar0on to the soil$ ;ne-tenth of all human-%aused %ar0onemissions sin%e )* ha3e %ome from soil, a%%ording to e%ologist Ri%hard 8oughton of the 2oods8ole Resear%h Center$ /his is due to tillage, #hi%h releases %ar0on and stris the earth ofrote%ti3e 3egetation, and to farming ra%ti%es that fail to return nutrients andorgani% matter to the earth$ lant-%o3ered land that is ne3er lo#ed is ideal forre%aturing %ar0on through hotosnthesis and for holding it in sta0le forms$ Nost

of the #orld’s 0eef %attle are raised on grass$ /heir runing mouths stimulate3egetati3e gro#th as their tramling hoofs and digesti3e tra%ts foster seedgermination and nutrient re%%ling $ /hese 0ene&%ial distur0an%es , li1e those on%e%aused 0 #ild gra6ing herds, re3ent the en%roa%hment of #ood shru0s and arene%essar for the fun%tioning of grassland e%osstems $ Resear%h 0 the SoilAsso%iation in the U$9$ sho#s that if  %attle are raised rimaril on grass and if goodfarming ra%ti%es are follo#ed, enough %ar0on %ould 0e se7uestered to o

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#NC Cattle >T Foo'Cattle ;ey to glo.al foo' s+pply an' 'on!t ta;e away crop lan'Nian 1" (5i%olette 8ahn 5iman-li3esto%1 ran%her, en3ironmental attorne, andauthor of Righteous or1%ho! Finding a Life and Bood Food 4eond Fa%tor Farms(+.$ “A%tuall, Raising 4eef Is Bood for thelanet” ,htt!""###$#s>$%om"arti%les"a%tuall-raising-0eef-is-good-for-the-lanet-))O* ,De%$ ), +) E!)+ $m$ /.ating 0eef also stands a%%used of aggra3ating #orld hunger$ /his is ironi% sin%e a0illion of the #orld’s oorest eole deend on li3esto%1$ Nost of the #orld’s %attleli3e on land that %annot 0e used for %ro %ulti3ation, and in the U$S$, *c of theland gra6ed 0 %attle %annot 0e farmed, a%%ording to the U$S$ 4eef 4oard$ /he 0o3ine’s moststri1ing attri0ute is that it %an li3e on a simle diet of grass, #hi%h it forages foritself$ And for rote%ting land, #ater, soil and %limate, there is nothing 0etter thandense grass$ As #e %onsider the long-term rose%ts for feeding the human ra%e,%attle #ill rightl remain an essential element $

http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738

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#NC Cattle T+rn T% Water Cons+ptionCattle 'on!t cons+e +ch water-n+trient val+e osetsNian 1" (5i%olette 8ahn 5iman-li3esto%1 ran%her, en3ironmental attorne, andauthor of Righteous or1%ho! Finding a Life and Bood Food 4eond Fa%tor Farms(+.$ “A%tuall, Raising 4eef Is Bood for thelanet” ,htt!""###$#s>$%om"arti%les"a%tuall-raising-0eef-is-good-for-the-lanet-))O* ,De%$ ), +) E!)+ $m$ /.5or are %attle 3ora%ious %onsumers of #ater$ Some en3ironmental %riti%s of %attleassert that +, gallons of #ater are re7uired for e3er ound of 0eef$ 4ut this&gure (or the e3en higher ones often %ited 0 ad3o%ates of 3eganism. are 0ased onthe most #ater-intensi3e situations$ Resear%h at the U ni3ersit of C alifornia, Da3is,sho#s that rodu%ing a ti%al ound of U$S$ 0eef ta1es a0out ) gallons of #aterer oundVonl slightl more #ater than for a ound of ri%eVand 0eef is far morenutritious$

http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738http://www.wsj.com/articles/actually-raising-beef-is-good-for-the-planet-1419030738

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1NC- Aeef cons+ption 'own9eat cons+ption 'own now than;s to high prices-especiallyfor .eef 9a'ay 13 ('ohn Nada-ditor 4o3ine Xeterinarian maga6ine and Nanaging ditor

Cattle5et#or1, “Neat %onsumtion dros as ri%es rise”,htt!""###$%attlenet#or1$%om"%attle-ne#s"Neat-%onsumtion-dros-as-ri%es-rise-)EO+))$html ,Fe0ruar +O, +).

/0S0 eat cons+ption is 'own an' .eef cons+ption in partic+lar

has lost gro+n' , a%%ording to the +) “o#er of Neat” stud$ ri%e is a 1e reason for the

de%line as 0eef ri%es ha3e %lim0ed through a eriod of tight %onsumer 0udgets, 0utother fa%tors also are in3ol3ed$ /he reort, u0lished 0 the Ameri%an Neat Institute and the Food Nar1etingInstitute #ith funding from Cro3a%, illustrates the %hallenges and oortunities the 0eef industr fa%es in 0uildingsales and mar1et share$ A%%ording to the sur3e results, %onsumers on a3erage reare $) home-%oo1ed dinnersea%h #ee1, #ith $E of those in%luding a ortion of meat or oultr, do#n from $) meals last ear$ Resondents ona3erage eat $ dinners out ea%h #ee1 and order out or %arr home the remaining dinner$ /he reort does not %o3erthe %ontents of the restaurant or home-deli3er meals$ /he num0er of %onsumers reorting the in%lude meat in atleast one dinner er #ee1, at er%ent, #as do#n >ust one er%entage oint from +)+ and has held steadil at

or er%ent sin%e +$ 8o#e3er, >ust E er%ent reort in%luding meat in dinners at least three times er#ee1, %omared #ith O er%ent last ear, and )* er%ent in%lude a meat item si? times er #ee1 %omared #ith

+ er%ent in +)+$ Nu%h of the de%line o%%urred in 0eef, #hi%h is not surrising sin%e0eef has e?erien%ed larger ri%e in%reases than or1 or oultr in re%ent ears$ /hereort sho#s retail 0eef ri%es in%reased 0 O$ er%ent o3er the ast ear, and ound sales of 0eef droed 0 E$er%ent$ In %ontrast, or1 ri%es in%reased 0 $* er%ent and ound sales of or1 de%lined 0 >ust $ er%ent$Chi%1en ri%es in%reased 0 $ er%ent, 0ut %hi%1en remains the lo#est-ri%ed meat a3aila0le, and ound salesin%reased 0 >ust under ) er%ent$

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Meat-consumption-drops-as-prices-rise-193674211.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Meat-consumption-drops-as-prices-rise-193674211.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Meat-consumption-drops-as-prices-rise-193674211.htmlhttp://www.cattlenetwork.com/cattle-news/Meat-consumption-drops-as-prices-rise-193674211.html

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#NC- Aeef cons+ption 'own9eat prices alrea'y highWhite 1" (Nartha C$ 2hite-#rites a0out %onsumer %redit, de0t and retail 0an1ingfor /IN$%om, “Neat ri%es ?e%ted to 9ee Clim0ing in +)”,htt!""###$n0%ne#s$%om"0usiness"e%onom"meat-ri%es-e?e%ted-1ee-%lim0ing-+)-n+OEE , DC +).

9eat itJs whatJs not on the en+ in #$14 $ A litan of roteins, in%luding

0eef, or1 and eggs, #ill 0e more e?ensi3e in +) V after their ri%es alread shotu in +) V utting them further out of rea%h of Ameri%aJs #or1ing oor$ M /he needhas in%reased$ Food V e3en the food #e 0u for here V has in%reased, 0ut the ahasnJt,M said 9ath elletier, the food 0an1 %oordinator at the Bardiner Food Center at Chrsalis la%e, inBardiner, Naine$

Aeef prices are partic+larly high-it!s a l+6+ryWhite 1" (Nartha C$ 2hite-#rites a0out %onsumer %redit, de0t and retail 0an1ingfor /IN$%om, “Neat ri%es ?e%ted to 9ee Clim0ing in +)”,

htt!""###$n0%ne#s$%om"0usiness"e%onom"meat-ri%es-e?e%ted-1ee-%lim0ing-+)-n+OEE , DC +).

And .eef is in a class .y itself ! MNost retail 0eef ri%es, on a3erage, are  also at

recor' highs  , e3en after ad>usting for inKation,M the U$S$D$A$Js %onomi% Resear%h Ser3i%e

said$ It redi%ts 0eef  and 3eal ri%es #ill end u #ith an )) to )+ er%ent in%rease for +), and #ill rise 0

another er%ent or so in +)$ M Aeef is .ecoing a l+6+ry  in the U$S$ mar1et at this

oint,M said Altin 9alo, an e%onomist at Steiner Consulting Brou $ M/he das of siml goingto the gro%er store and 0uing a fe# stea1s_ those are going to 0e fe# and far 0et#een,M he said$ 9alo said 0eef ri%es #ill 0e er%ent higher in +) than the #ere in + , and that #ill 0e the ne#norm for no#$ M2e donJt thin1 thereJs going to 0e mu%h relief in terms of 0eef ri%es,M he

said$

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/meat-prices-expected-keep-climbing-2015-n276906

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---T% ''-on!s---

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California &

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#NC Foo' DefenseKcross apply the allo+che evi'ence- if not alrea'y rea' rea'here

Foo' shortages won!t ca+se war

llo+che 11, resear%h Fello# \ #ater sul and sanitation W Institute forDe3eloment Studies, frmr rofessor \ NI/ ('erem, “/he sustaina0ilit andresilien%e of glo0al #ater and food sstems! oliti%al analsis of the interla0et#een se%urit, resour%e s%ar%it, oliti%al sstems and glo0al trade,” Food oli%,Xol$ E Sulement ), $ S-S*, 'anuar.

 /he 7uestion of resour%e s%ar%it has led to man de0ates on #hether s%ar%it (#hether of food or#ater. #ill lead to %onKi%t and #ar$ /he underlining reasoning 0ehind most of these dis%ourses o3er foodand #ater #ars %omes from the Nalthusian 0elief that there is an im0alan%e 0et#een thee%onomi% a3aila0ilit of natural resour%es and oulation gro#th sin%e #hile food rodu%tion gro#slinearl, oulation in%reases e?onentiall$ Follo#ing this reasoning, neo-Nalthusians %laim that &nite naturalresour%es la%e a stri%t limit on the gro#th of human oulation and aggregate %onsumtion if these limits are

e?%eeded, so%ial 0rea1do#n, %onKi%t and #ars result$ 5onetheless, it seems that ost epirical

st+'ies 'o not s+pport  an of these  neo-Nalthusian arg+ents  0   /e%hnologi%al

%hange and greater inuts of %aital ha3e dramati%all in%reased la0our rodu%ti3it inagri%ulture$ Nore generall, the neo-Nalthusian 3ie# has su

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0 a Nalthusian outloo1 #hi%h e7uates s%ar%it #ith 3iolen%e, %onKi%t and #ar$ There is  ho#e3er no  dire%t

correlation .etween water scarcity an' trans.o+n'ary conict0 Nostse%ialists no# tend to agree that the ma>or issue is not s%ar%it er se 0ut rather the allo%ation of #ater resour%es

0et#een the diust that #e ha3e no a%%ess to it$ It is true that

natural %alamities and #ars %ause a food shortage onl temoraril$ 8o#e3er, recent st+'ies  sho# 

that at resent, we cons+e ore than we pro'+ce0  /he U5 #arns that grain

reser3es are rogressi3el getting lo#er 0e%ause of 'ro+ghts an' crop fail+res  in

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ma>or food rodu%ing %ountries$ The faine in frica  ma ossi0l 0e felt in other arts

of the #orld$ /his is an emergen% situation that re7uires us to reare 0eforehand$ 2e must ha3e a sul offood and #ater for us to sur3i3e$

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#N@ Foo' Defense

8pirics 'isprove foo' warsSalehyan G (Idean, rofessor of oliti%al S%ien%e \ Uni3ersit of 5orth /e?as, “/he5e# Nth A0out Climate Change”, Foreign oli%, Summer,

htt!""###$foreignoli%$%om"stor"%ms$hGstorYidH++.First, aside from a fe# ane%dotes, there is little sstemati% emiri%al e3iden%e thatresour%e s%ar%it and %hanging en3ironmental %onditions lead to %onKi%t$ In fa%t,se3eral studies ha3e sho#n that an a0undan%e of natural resour%es is more li1el to%ontri0ute to %onKi%t$ Noreo3er, e3en as the lanet has #armed, the num0er of %i3il#ars and insurgen%ies has de%reased dramati%all$ Data %olle%ted 0 resear%hers atUsala Uni3ersit and the International ea%e Resear%h Institute, ;slo sho#s astee de%line in the num0er of armed %onKi%ts around the #orld$ 4et#een )* and++, some ) armed %onKi%ts %ame to an end, in%luding the #ars in No6am0i7ue,5i%aragua, and Cam0odia$ If glo0al #arming %auses %onKi%t, #e should not 0e#itnessing this do#n#ard trend$ Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the %risisin Darfur, #h ha3e s%ores of en3ironmental %atastrohes failed to set o< armed

%onKi%t else#hereG For instan%e, the U$5$ 2orld Food rogramme #arns that million eole in Nala#i ha3e 0een e?erien%ing %hroni% food shortages for se3eralears$ 4ut famine-#ra%1ed Nala#i has et to e?erien%e a ma>or %i3il #ar$ Similarl,the Asian tsunami  in + 1illed hundreds of thousands of eole, generatedmillions of en3ironmental refugees, and led to se3ere shortages of shelter, food,%lean #ater, and ele%tri%it$ :et the tsunami, one of the most e?treme %atastrohesin re%ent histor, did not lead to an out0rea1 of resour%e #ars$ Clearl then, there ismu%h more to armed %onKi%t than resour%e s%ar%it and natural disasters$

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Foo'MWater Scarcity

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#NC Water DefenseNo water ipactllo+che E11 ('erem Allou%he, resear%h Fello#, #ater sul and sanitation WInstitute for De3eloment Studies, former rofessor \ NI/, hD in InternationalRelations from the Braduate Institute of International Studies “/he sustaina0ilitand resilien%e of glo0al #ater and food sstems! oliti%al analsis of the interla0et#een se%urit, resour%e s%ar%it, oliti%al sstems and glo0al trade,” Food oli%,Xolume E, Sulement ), ages S\S*, S%ien%e Dire%t, 'anuar +)).

 /he 7uestion of resour%e s%ar%it has led to man de0ates on #hether s%ar%it(#hether of food or #ater. #ill lead to %onKi%t and #ar$ /he underlining reasoning0ehind most of these dis%ourses o3er food and #ater #ars %omes from theNalthusian 0elief that there is an im0alan%e 0et#een the e%onomi% a3aila0ilit ofnatural resour%es and oulation gro#th sin%e #hile food rodu%tion gro#s linearl,oulation in%reases e?onentiall$ Follo#ing this reasoning, neo-Nalthusians %laimthat &nite natural resour%es la%e a stri%t limit on the gro#th of human oulationand aggregate %onsumtion if these limits are e?%eeded, so%ial 0rea1do#n, %onKi%t

and #ars result$ 5onetheless, it seems that ost epirical st+'ies 'o not

s+pport  an of these neo-Nalthusian arguments$ /e%hnologi%al %hange and

greater inuts of %aital ha3e dramati%all in%reased la0our rodu%ti3it inagri%ulture$ Nore generall, the neo-Nalthusian 3ie# has su

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onl se3en disutes #here #ater seems to ha3e 0een at least a artial %ause for%onKi%t (2olf, )*, $ +).$ In fa%t, a0out *c of the in%idents relating to #ater#ere limited urel to go3ernmental rhetori% intended for the ele%torate (;t%het,+), $ )*.$ As sho#n in /he 4asins At Ris1 (4AR. #ater e3ent data0ase, more thant#o-thirds of o3er )* #ater-related [e3ents’ fall on the [%ooerati3e’ s%ale (:oor issue is not s%ar%it er se 0ut rather the allo%ation of#ater resour%es 0et#een the di

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#N@ Water DefenseNo water warsAarna.y E (2end, editor of eole T S%ien%e, the maga6ine u0lished 0 the4ritish S%ien%e Asso%iation, “Do nations go to #ar o3er #aterG,”,htt!""###$nature$%om"nature">ournal"3*"nO+E"full"*+*+a$html, Nar%h ),

+.

 /he United 5ations #arned as re%entl as last #ee1 that %limate %hange har0oursthe otential for serious %onKi%ts o3er #ater$ In its 2orld 2ater De3elomentReort) of Nar%h +, it 7uotes U5 Se%retar-Beneral 4an 9i-moon noting the ris1of #ater s%ar%it Mtransforming ea%eful %ometition into 3iolen%eM$ It is statementssu%h as this that ga3e 0irth to oular notions of J#ater #arsJ$ It is time #e diselled

this mth$ Co+ntries 'o not go to war over water  the sol3e their #ater

shortages through trade and international agreements$ Cooeration, in fa%t, is the

'oinant response  to shared #ater resour%es$ /here are #3  %ross-0oundar

#ater#as in the #orld $ 4et#een )* and ) , %ooeration o3er #ater, in%ludingthe signing of treaties, far o+tweighe'  %onKi%t o3er #ater and 3iolent %onKi%t in

arti%ular$ ;f ),*) instan%es of intera%tions o3er international fresh#ater resour%estallied o3er that time eriod (in%luding e3erthing from uno@%ial 3er0al e?%hangesto e%onomi% agreements or militar a%tion., EOc #ere %ooerati3e, onl +*c #ere%onKi%ti3e, and the remaining c #ere neutral or insigni&%ant$ In those &3e

de%ades , there #ere no foral 'eclarations of war over water $

Their ev is .a' scholarshipAarna.y E (2end, editor of eole T S%ien%e, the maga6ine u0lished 0 the4ritish S%ien%e Asso%iation, “Do nations go to #ar o3er #aterG,”,htt!""###$nature$%om"nature">ournal"3*"nO+E"full"*+*+a$html, Nar%h ),+.

 :et the mth of #ater #ars ersists$ Climate %hange, #e are told, #ill %ause #atershortages$ /he Intergo3ernmental anel on Climate Change estimates that u to +0illion eole ma 0e at ris1 from in%reasing #ater stress 0 the +s, and thatthis num0er %ould rise to $+ 0illion 0 the +*sO$ 2ater management #ill need toadat$ 4ut the me%hanisms of trade, international agreements and e%onomi%de3eloment that %urrentl ease #ater shortages #ill ersist$ Resear%hers, su%h asAaron 2olf at ;regon State Uni3ersit, Cor3allis, and 5ils etter Bledits%h at theInternational ea%e Resear%h Institute in ;slo, oint out that redi%tions of armed

%onKi%t %ome from the media and from oular , non-peer-reviewe' wor; $

 /here is something other than #ater for #hi%h shortages, or e3en the er%ei3edthreat of future shortages, does %ause #ar V oil$ 4ut the strategi% signi&%an%e of oilis immeasura0l higher than that of #ater$ Serious interrutions of oil sulies#ould sto highl de3eloed e%onomies in their tra%1s$ ;il is ne%essar for ade3eloed e%onom, and a de3eloed e%onom ro3ides for all the needs of its%iti6ens, in%luding #ater$ eole in de3eloed e%onomies do not die of thirst$ N

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en%ounter #ith AllanJs #or1 1illed m 0oo1$ I o

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#NC Foo' DefenseKcross apply the allo+che evi'ence- if not alrea'y rea' rea'here

Foo' shortages won!t ca+se war

llo+che 11, resear%h Fello# \ #ater sul and sanitation W Institute forDe3eloment Studies, frmr rofessor \ NI/ ('erem, “/he sustaina0ilit andresilien%e of glo0al #ater and food sstems! oliti%al analsis of the interla0et#een se%urit, resour%e s%ar%it, oliti%al sstems and glo0al trade,” Food oli%,Xol$ E Sulement ), $ S-S*, 'anuar.

 /he 7uestion of resour%e s%ar%it has led to man de0ates on #hether s%ar%it (#hether of food or#ater. #ill lead to %onKi%t and #ar$ /he underlining reasoning 0ehind most of these dis%ourses o3er foodand #ater #ars %omes from the Nalthusian 0elief that there is an im0alan%e 0et#een thee%onomi% a3aila0ilit of natural resour%es and oulation gro#th sin%e #hile food rodu%tion gro#slinearl, oulation in%reases e?onentiall$ Follo#ing this reasoning, neo-Nalthusians %laim that &nite naturalresour%es la%e a stri%t limit on the gro#th of human oulation and aggregate %onsumtion if these limits are

e?%eeded, so%ial 0rea1do#n, %onKi%t and #ars result$ 5onetheless, it seems that ost epirical

st+'ies 'o not s+pport  an of these  neo-Nalthusian arg+ents  0   /e%hnologi%al

%hange and greater inuts of %aital ha3e dramati%all in%reased la0our rodu%ti3it inagri%ulture$ Nore generall, the neo-Nalthusian 3ie# has su

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0 a Nalthusian outloo1 #hi%h e7uates s%ar%it #ith 3iolen%e, %onKi%t and #ar$ There is  ho#e3er no  dire%t

correlation .etween water scarcity an' trans.o+n'ary conict0 Nostse%ialists no# tend to agree that the ma>or issue is not s%ar%it er se 0ut rather the allo%ation of #ater resour%es

0et#een the diust that #e ha3e no a%%ess to it$ It is true that

natural %alamities and #ars %ause a food shortage onl temoraril$ 8o#e3er, recent st+'ies  sho# 

that at resent, we cons+e ore than we pro'+ce0  /he U5 #arns that grain

reser3es are rogressi3el getting lo#er 0e%ause of 'ro+ghts an' crop fail+res  in

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ma>or food rodu%ing %ountries$ The faine in frica  ma ossi0l 0e felt in other arts

of the #orld$ /his is an emergen% situation that re7uires us to reare 0eforehand$ 2e must ha3e a sul offood and #ater for us to sur3i3e$

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#N@ Foo' Defense

8pirics 'isprove foo' warsSalehyan G (Idean, rofessor of oliti%al S%ien%e \ Uni3ersit of 5orth /e?as, “/he5e# Nth A0out Climate Change”, Foreign oli%, Summer,

htt!""###$foreignoli%$%om"stor"%ms$hGstorYidH++.First, aside from a fe# ane%dotes, there is little sstemati% emiri%al e3iden%e thatresour%e s%ar%it and %hanging en3ironmental %onditions lead to %onKi%t$ In fa%t,se3eral studies ha3e sho#n that an a0undan%e of natural resour%es is more li1el to%ontri0ute to %onKi%t$ Noreo3er, e3en as the lanet has #armed, the num0er of %i3il#ars and insurgen%ies has de%reased dramati%all$ Data %olle%ted 0 resear%hers atUsala Uni3ersit and the International ea%e Resear%h Institute, ;slo sho#s astee de%line in the num0er of armed %onKi%ts around the #orld$ 4et#een )* and++, some ) armed %onKi%ts %ame to an end, in%luding the #ars in No6am0i7ue,5i%aragua, and Cam0odia$ If glo0al #arming %auses %onKi%t, #e should not 0e#itnessing this do#n#ard trend$ Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the %risisin Darfur, #h ha3e s%ores of en3ironmental %atastrohes failed to set o< armed

%onKi%t else#hereG For instan%e, the U$5$ 2orld Food rogramme #arns that million eole in Nala#i ha3e 0een e?erien%ing %hroni% food shortages for se3eralears$ 4ut famine-#ra%1ed Nala#i has et to e?erien%e a ma>or %i3il #ar$ Similarl,the Asian tsunami  in + 1illed hundreds of thousands of eole, generatedmillions of en3ironmental refugees, and led to se3ere shortages of shelter, food,%lean #ater, and ele%tri%it$ :et the tsunami, one of the most e?treme %atastrohesin re%ent histor, did not lead to an out0rea1 of resour%e #ars$ Clearl then, there ismu%h more to armed %onKi%t than resour%e s%ar%it and natural disasters$

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Waring

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#NC Waring Defense

Not rapi'9c&rath !13 (Natt N%Brath, n3ironment %orresondent, 44C 5e#s, “Climateslo#do#n means e?treme rates of #arming Jnot as li1elJ”,htt!""###$00%$%o$u1"ne#s"s%ien%e-en3ironment-++EO+, Na ), +).

S%ientists sa the re%ent do#nturn in the rate of glo0al #arming #ill lead to lo#ertemerature rises in the short-term$ Sin%e )*, there has 0een an une?lainedMstandstillM in the heating of the arthJs atmoshere$ 2riting in 5ature Beos%ien%e ,the resear%hers sa this #ill redu%e redi%ted #arming in the %oming de%ades$ 4utlong-term, the e?e%ted temerature rises #ill not alter signi&%antl$ “Start uote

 /he most e6tree proOections are loo1ing  less li;ely  than 0efore” Dr

Ale?ander ;tto Uni3ersit of ;?ford /he slo#do#n in the e?e%ted rate of glo0al#arming has 0een studied for se3eral ears no#$ arlier this ear, the U9 Net ;@%elo#ered their &3e-ear temerature fore%ast$ 4ut this ne# aer gi3es the %learest

i%ture et of ho# an slo#do#n is li1el to ae%ted range #ould 0e$-+$C$ I%e /he reort suggests that #arming in the near term #ill 0e less thanfore%ast M /he hottest of the models in the medium-term, the are a%tuall loo1ing

less li1el or in%onsistent #ith the data from the last de%ade alone,M said DrAle?ander ;tto from the Uni3ersit of ;?ford$ M/he most e?treme ro>e%tions areloo1ing less li1el than 0efore$M

We a'apt9en'elsohn E I Ro0ert ;$ Nendelsohn , the d#in 2eerhaeuser Da3isrofessor, :ale S%hool of Forestr and n3ironmental Studies, :ale Uni3ersit, 'une+, “Climate Change and %onomi% Bro#th,” online!htt!""###$gro#th%ommission$org"storage"%gde3"do%uments"g%#E#e0$df 

 /hese statements are largel alarist an' islea'ing $ Although %limate

%hange is a serious ro0lem that deser3es attention, so%iet’s immediate 0eha3ior

has an  e6treely low pro.a.ility  of leading to  catastrophic

conse7+ences 0 /he s%ien%e and e%onomi%s of %limate %hange is 7uite %lear that

emissions o3er the ne?t fe# de%ades #ill lead to onl  il' conse7+ences $ /he

severe ipacts  redi%ted 0 alarmists re7+ire a cent+ry Kor two  in the

%ase of Stern +E. of no itigation $ Nan of the redi%ted ima%ts assume

there #ill 0e no or little adatation$ /he net e%onomi% ima%ts from %limate %hange

http://www.growthcommission.org/storage/cgdev/documents/gcwp060web.pdfhttp://www.growthcommission.org/storage/cgdev/documents/gcwp060web.pdf

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o3er the ne?t ears #ill 0e small regardless$ Nost of the more se3ere ima%ts #illta1e more than a %entur or e3en a millennium to unfold and man of these 

=otential ” ima%ts will never occ+r .eca+se people will a'apt0  It is not

at all aarent that immediate and dramati% oli%ies need to 0e de3eloed toth#art longrange %limate ris1s$ 2hat is needed are longrun 0alan%ed resonses$

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#N@ Waring Defensercheology 'isproves environental e6tinctionF !13 KAgen%e Fran%e-resse, “Climate %hange 0oosted human de3eloment!stud”, Na +), +).

ARIS V arl humans li3ing in South Afri%a made %ultural and industrial leas ineriods of #etter #eather, said a stud /uesda that %omared the ar%haeologi%alre%ord of NanJs e3olution #ith that of %limate %hange$ Anatomi%all modernhumans, 8omo saiens, &rst made their aearan%e in Afri%a during the NiddleStone Age #hi%h lasted from a0out +*, to , ears ago$ Some of theearliest e?amles of human %ulture and te%hnolog are found in South Afri%a -- #ithfossil e3iden%e of inno3ati3e surts #hose %ause has left s%ientists u66led$ /here%ord re3eals that a nota0le eriod of human ad3an%ement o%%urred a0out O),ears ago, and another 0et#een E, and , ears ago$ ?amles of su%hinno3ation in%lude the use of sm0ols, lin1ed to the de3eloment of %omle?language, in engra3ings, the manufa%ture and use of stone tools and ersonal

adornment #ith shell >e#eller$ M2e sho# for the ournal 5ature Communi%ations$ M2e found that SouthAfri%a e?erien%ed #etter %onditions during these eriods of %ultural ad3an%e$ MAtthe same time, large arts of su0-Saharan Afri%a e?erien%ed drier %onditions, sothat South Afri%a otentiall a%ted as a refugium for earl humans$M iegler and ateam re%onstru%ted the South Afri%an %limate o3er the ast ), ears using asediment %ore drilled out from the %ountrJs east %oast$ /he %ore sho#s %hanges inri3er dis%harge and rainfall$ MIt o

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rise of, sa, ten meters. will  li;ely ta;e cent+ries to +nfol' giving

societies tie to a'O+st0 “A0rut” %limate %hange is also ossi0le, and #ill

o%%ur more raidl, erhas o3er a de%ade or t#o$ 8o#e3er, a.r+pt cliate

change  (su%h as a #ea1ening in the 5orth Atlanti% %ir%ulation., though otentiall

3er serious, is +nli;ely to .e r+ino+s  0  8uman-indu%ed %limate %hange is an

e?eriment of lanetar roortions, and #e %annot 0e sur of its %onse7uen%es$

8ven in a worse case scenario , ho#e3er, glo0al cliate change is not

the e7+ivalent of the  arth 0eing hit 0 ega-asteroi'0  Indeed, if it #ere

as damaging as this, and if #e #ere sure that it #ould 0e this harmful, then ourin%enti3e to address this threat #ould 0e o3er#helming$ /he %hallenge #ould still 0emore di@%ult than asteroid defense, 0ut #e #ould ha3e done mu%h more a0out it0 no#$

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9iscellaneo+s

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or; D

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Lin; lan ;ills the por; in'+stryNC No Date (5ational or1 rodu%ers Coun%il, “Nandator AnimalIdenti&%ation Sstem”, htt!""###$n%$org"issues"animal-health-safet"mandator-animal-identi&%ation-sstem" .A mandator animal identi&%ation sstem las three 3ital roles for Ameri%a’s or1rodu%ers and %onsumers! strengthens the se%urit of the nation’s li3esto%1

industr, ese%iall in the e3ent of an intentional introdu%tion of a pathogen or

to6in  that %ould a