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Aeronautica Militare
ESPERIENZA AFGHANA
GENERALITA’
CONCLUSIONI
Aeronautica Militare
OBIETTIVI
PROBLEMIRELAZIONI
PROCESSO
Aeronautica Militare
PIU’ ASSERTIVO
PIU’ CONSENSUALE
ACCOMODARESCHIVARE
COMPROMESSO
COLLABORAZIONECOMPETIZIONE
Aeronautica Militare
INDIVIDUO A
INDIVIDUO B
0 %100 %
100 %
(Lose/Lose)
(Lose/Win)
(Win/Lose)
(Win/Win)
Linea Neutrale del compromesso
Linea del compromesso via conflitto
Linea del compromesso via consenso
Aeronautica Militare
L’ Iceberg P-I-N
Necessità e paure
Interessi e valori
Posizioni
TerrenoComune per
costruire
Aeronautica Militare
Incertezze
Ostilità
PauraConflitto
Aeronautica Militare
Aeronautica Militare
• SISTEMA DINAMICO IN CONTINUA MUTAZIONE
• DINAMICHE COMPLESSE DIFFICILI DA COMUNICARE AI MEDIA ED AI POLITICI
• IL MANCATO CONTROLLO DI ALCUNI ELEMENTI SI RIVERBERA NEGATIVAMENTE SULL’INTERO SISTEMA
Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics Population/Popular SupportInfrastructure, Economy, & ServicesGovernmentAfghanistan Security ForcesInsurgentsCrime and NarcoticsCoalition Forces & ActionsPhysical Environment
Neutral/OnPopulation
Ins. StrategicCommun/IO
& Affiliation w/Population
Gov'tWorkforce
Skill & Avail
CoalitionDev.Ops-
Infrastructure,Services,
Econ.Advisory
& Aid
ANSFAppropriateUse of Force
Relative WOMMessage
AmplificationGov’t vs Ins
CoalitionAvg COINExperience
& Skill
Gov'tProfessionalismPolicy Quality
& Fairness
CoalitionStrategic
Commun./IO
Private SectorWorkforce
Skill & Avail
Likelihood of
for Payment
Ties toNarcotics &
Other CriminalFunding
InsurgentCapacity,
Priorities &Effectiveness
Strength ofReligious
Ideology &Tribal
Structures
Gov'tIntegration ofLocal TribalStructures
Gov't TrainingMentoring,Vetting, and
Hiring
Overall Gov'tReach,
ExecutionCapacity &Investment
Breadth ofCoalition &
Support
ResourceLevels
(Mil. & Civ.Forces,
Aid Levels)
CoalitionAdjustmentof Approachto Fit Afghan
CoalitionKnowledge& Underst.
of SocialStructures
Coalition‘COIN
Support’Strategy &
Unity
Recognition/Engagement to
IntegrateTribal
Structures&Beliefs
ProvideHumanitarian
Relief
Infr, Services, Econ.Policy & Execution/Perceived Fairness
InfrastructureDev. Adequacy& Sustainment
Legit EconomicActivity,Trade &
Employment
CivilianServices(SWET,
Healthcare,Education)
Private SectorCapital Mgmt., Investment &
Spending
Expectationsfor Security,Services, &Employment
Perception ofInsurgentStrength &
Intent
WesternAffiliationBacklash Perception of
Coalition Intent& Commitment
RelativeMessage
Impact Gov’tvs Ins
Fear of Ins.Attack/
Repercussions
Legit vs. IllegitRelative
EconomicOpportunity
PopulationBasic Needs
Service Levels& Employment
Fraction ofWorkforceAnd Agric.Legit vsIllegit
Illegit AgricProduction,
Trade &Employment
Narcotics& Criminal
ActivityLevels
InsurgentRecruiting,Retention,Manpower
& ISR
Counter- Narcotics/Crime Ops
Ins.Leadership,
Training, Skill& Experience
Ins. ProvisionOf Gov’t &Services
Ins.Offensives &
Presence(Clear & Hold)
Fear ofGov’ t/ANSF/
CoalitionRepercussions
Ins. Damages& Casualties
Gov't/ANSFStrategicCommun/
IO
PerceivedDamages &Use of Force
by Ins.
RelativeMessageQuality
Gov’ ’t vs Ins.Coalition/HomelandAcceptance of
Afghan Methods
Gov'tSecurityPolicy
Quality &Investment
R.O.L. Policy,Execution &PerceivedFairnessANSF
FundingAdequacy
CoalitionDev. Ops-
ANSFAdvisory
& Aid
ANSFInstitutional &
ExecutionCapacity
ANSFTraining &Mentoring
ANSF Avg.ProfessionalismSkill, Discipline,
& Morale
ANSFManpower
Recruiting &Retention
ANSF UnitLeadership& TacticalCapacity
TotalSecurityForce
Capacity &Focus
ISR / OpenSource Ops
CoalitionDev. Ops-
Gov’tAdvisory
& Aid
ANSFCorruption &
TribalFavoritism
ANSFCapacity,
Priorities & Effectiveness
ANSF &CoalitionDamages/Casualties
PopulationActively
SupportingGov’ t & SF
Sympathizingw/ Gov’t
the FencePopulation
Sympathizingw/ Insurgents
PopulationActively
SupportingInsurgency
Ethnic/TribalRivalry
CoalitionExecutionCapacity &Priorities
TerrainHarshness& Breadth
Duration ofOperation
US DomesticPerceived
Cost/Benefit& Support
CoalitionVisibility toPopulation
US Domestic/Int'l Strategic
Commun.& Diplomacy
US Gov'tSupport forOperation
CoalitionAppropriateBalance of
Effort &Force
Gov'tFunding
Adequacy
Central Gov'tInstitutional &
ExecutionCapacity
Gov't/Contractor
Corruption &Tribal Favoritism
TaxRevenues
OutsideSupport/
Enablementof Ins.
Policing &Security Ops
(Hold)
TargetedStrikes
CoordinationAmong Ins.
FactionsInsurgentTerrain
Advantage
PerceivedDamages/Use
of Force byGov’ t & Coalition
PerceivedSecurity
AverageConnectednessof Population
PotentialAttractiveness
of Gov’t vs.Insurgent Path
Visible GainsIn Security,Services &
Employment
Satisfactionw/ Gains in
Security, Services& Employment
PerceptionOf Gov’tStrength& Intent
Ability toReconcileReligiousIdeology,
TribalStructuresw/ Gov’t
Path
Ins. TargetedAttacks onProgress/Supportfor Gov’t
Criminal/TraffickingCapability &
Coercion
Legit AgricProduction
Ability toMove
People& GoodsRapidly
Legit OtherProduction& ServicesNon-Agric
Transparencyof Gov’t
Processes &Investments
MediaSensationalism
BiasCultural Erosion/
Displacement
Durationof
Operation
Sweep Ops(Clear)
RelativePopularSupport/ /ToleranceGov’t vs
Insurgents
Funding &Material
Support to Insurgents
Territory NotUnder Gov’t
Control (Afghan & Pakistan)
Havens / Ability to Operate
Significant Delay=
Significant Delay=
Crime/Violence /Ins. Support
POPULARSUPPORT
INSURGENTS
INFRASTRUCTURE,SERVICES &ECONOMY
NARCOTICS
POPULATIONCONDITIONS& BELIEFS
COALITIONDOMESTICSUPPORT
ANSFTACTICAL
TRIBALGOVERNANCE
OVERALLGOVERNMENTCAPACITY
ANSFINSTITUTIONAL
COALITIONCAPACITY &PRIORITIES
OUTSIDE SUPPORT TO INSURGENTFACTIONS
CENTRAL GOV’T
Aeronautica Militare
• Fattori fuori controllo Coalizione:- caratteristiche strutturali interne- convergenze interessi geo-strategici regionali
• Correlazione war/post• Planning integrato• Fattore sicurezza• Multinazionalità sforzi• Reconstruction già in fase combat
Aeronautica Militare
• Condivisione obj - unitarietà d’ intenti• Strategia mediatica & Info Campaign• Discriminazione obj c/insurrezionali• Uso della forza• Intelligence culturale• Risorse locali• Concomitanza op. mil. diversa natura
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire come la cultura locale si rapporta con la gerarchia
• Capire se la cultura locale privilegia le decisioni individuali o collegiali
• Capire come la cultura prevalentemente gestisce le situazioni d’ansia o incertezza
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire se la cultura locale predilige le soluzioni immediate o quelle a più lungo termine
• Capire gli stili di comunicazione locali
• Capire se è preferito un’approccio diretto oppure indiretto, di circostanza
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire come la cultura locale vede il problemsolving:
1. preservare le relazioni2. ottenere guadagni materiali, potere3. preservare la coesione del gruppo
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire come la cultura locale vede il decisionmaking:
1. decide l’individuo singolo?2. é un individuo titolato a decidere?3. decidono organi collegiali?
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire come la cultura locale approccia i task:1. abbiamo le stesse priorità?2. diamo lo stesso peso e valore alle problematiche?3. la motivazione e l’efficienza sono le stesse?
Aeronautica Militare
• Capire che cosa si aspetta la cultura locale:1. abbiamo le stesse aspettative?2. è meglio esplicitarle?3. la negoziazione è vista come segnale di possibile
accordo o solo come amabile discussione?
Aeronautica Militare
• Avere un piano dall’inizio• Mantenere sempre una percentuale
d’incertezza nell’interlocutore• Sviluppare capacità locali• Costruire su negoziazioni successive• Valutare frequentemente gli
sviluppi/risultati• Rimanere ingaggiati con rispetto
dell’interlocutore• Essere credibili
Aeronautica Militare