agenda日程 - lightcounting.com chinese.pdfzte; nsn. huawei ericsson. alcatel lucent. company;...
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LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Agenda日程• Vladimir Kozlov, Ph.D. – CEO and Founder, LightCounting• LightCounting CEO 和创始人
· State of the optical communications industry and Market outlook for 2012.光通信产业状况和2012年市场展望
• Matt Traverso – Product Marketing, Cisco Cisco产品市场部· High-speed interconnects from the data center router to the Metro loop and trends in optical transceivers. 从数据中心路由器到城域网的高速互联和光收发器趋势
• Brad Smith – Senior Vice President, LightCounting LightCounting高级副总裁· The data tsunami on the horizon. 40G/100G transceivers, AOCs, embedded modules, direct attach cables and 10GBASE-T爆炸式流量需求--山雨欲来。 40G/100G 收发器,AOC,嵌入式模块、有源电缆和10GBASE-T
• Brad Booth – Distinguished Engineer, Networking CTO Office at Dell知名工程师 Dell 网络CTO• High-speed interconnects trends and issues linking servers, switches and routers in the data center• 高速网络互联的发展趋势和问题与数据中心的服务器、交换机以及路由器的发展息息
相关• Scott Schube – Senior Market Analyst, LightCounting LightCounting高级市场分析师•
· Review of OFC show floor discoveries – CANCELLED OFC现场热点评述(取消)(下周将以实时通信的形式发布)
• (OFC highlights will be covered in a newsletter next week)
3/11/2012 1
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
LightCounting TeamLightCounting团队
• Marihette Fourie – Director of Sales and Marketing
• Melody Rao – Sales Manager in Asia
• Renee Isley – Business Manager
• Brad Smith – Executive VP and Chief Analyst
• Vladimir Kozlov – CEO and founder
• Lilah Gonen – Analyst
• Open Position – Senior Analyst
3/11/2012 2
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
State of the Industryand Market Outlook for 2012行业状况和2012年市场展望
Vladimir Kozlov
March 2012
3/11/2012 3
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
The Industry Supply Chain产业链
3/11/2012 4
$, €, ¥
Products产品
CapEx资本支出
Product sales, 产品销售Port count 端口数
Sales, ASPs,销售额Units 平均售价和个数
Units个数
运营商 内容服务商企业/大学
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Average Non-GAAP Net Income Across the Supply Chain ($ millions) 产业链上的平均非公认会计原则净收入
(百万美元计)
3/11/2012 5
Companies公司 2007 2008 2009 2010Content Providers内容服
务商 $5,191 $6,425 $9,508 $11,538
Service Providers运营商 $6,033 $2,796 $5,423 $6,864
System Vendors系统商 $332 -$815 $698 $664
IC Vendors IC供应商 $732 $710 $608 $1,692OC and Transceiver Vendors OC和收发器供
应商 $24 $34 $17 $86
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Service Provider Revenue and CapEx运营商收益和资本支出
3/11/2012 6
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+7.5%
$120
$130
$140
$150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+5%
Revenue CapEx
CapEx Trends: 资本支出趋势• Less concrete 更少基建• Less copper 更少铜线• More wireless 更多无线• More optics 更多光缆
收益资本支出
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Service Provider Business运营商面面观
3/11/2012 7
• Regulations: Maintaining Scale, but avoiding Monopoly政策法规:保持规模,但避免垄断
• AT&T, T-Mobile – “no deal” AT & T 和T-Mobile- 合并—没有实现• China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom• 中国移动、中国电信和中国联通
• Network Neutrality 网络公平性• FTTx deployments, Google FTTx 部署、 Google• Government funded deployments 政府出资的部署
• New business models developed by Content Providers may be future business opportunities for service providers 内容服务商开发的新运营模式有可能是运营商的未来生意机会
• Salesforce.com, Netflix, Facebook, Rackspace• Verizon acquires Terremark - a cloud computing companyand challenges Netflix with an alternative video on demand service Verizon 并购了Terremark –一个云计算公司。提供可以实时选择的视频点播服务。这对Netflix是一个挑战。
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Telecom Equipment Suppliers 电信设备商
3/11/2012 8
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Reve
nue
($B) ZTE
NSN
Huawei
Ericsson
Alcatel Lucent
Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 %
Alcatel Lucent $24.9 $25.2 $21.3 $21.2 $22.0 4%
Ericsson $28.2 $31.2 $27.5 $28.4 $34.8 22%
Huawei $12.6 $18.3 $21.8 $28.7 $31.5 10%
NSN $18.9 $22.8 $17.6 $15.9 $19.7 23%
ZTE $4.6 $6.4 $8.8 $10.4 $12.5 21%
Total $89.2 $104.0 $97.0 $104.6 $120.5 15%
Change % 17% -7% 8% 15%
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Datacom Equipment Suppliers数据设备商
3/11/2012 9
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
2008 2009 2010 2011
Reve
nue
($B)
Brocade
Cisco
Dell
EMC
HP
IBM
Juniper
Company 2008 2009 2010 2011 %Brocade $1.6 $2.1 $2.1 $2.1 2%Cisco $20.8 $17.6 $20.9 $21.8 4%Dell $7.0 $8.2 $9.9 $10.3 4%EMC $8.0 $7.0 $8.8 $10.1 14%HP $18.5 $15.8 $19.9 $21.6 9%IBM $11.0 $10.5 $11.7 $12.4 6%Juniper $2.7 $2.6 $3.3 $3.5 7%Total $69.5 $63.8 $76.5 $81.7 7%Change -8% 20% 7%
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Optical Transceiver Sales 光收发器销售额
3/11/2012 10
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sale
s ($
M)
+7%
+36%
以美元计
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Forecast Methodology预测方法
3/11/2012 11
?Forecast example
real market data
1. Real Sales data provided by suppliers 供应商提供的真实销售数据
2. Forecast model linked to market drivers 根据左右市场的因素进行预
测
预测范例
实际市场数据
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Market Data Provided By:市场数据由以下公司提供
• Avago• Civcom• Delta Electronics• eGtran• Emcore• Finisar• Fujitsu• HiSense Broadband• Hitachi Cable• Ignis (Finisar)
• JDS Uniphase• Luxtera (Molex)• Merge Optics (FCI)• NEC• NeoPhotonics• Oclaro• Opnext• Source Photonics• Sumitomo• WTD• Zarlink (Tyco)
3/11/2012 12
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Sales Data Example 销售数据样本
3/11/2012 13
Ethernet
SONET/SDH
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Calculating Network Bandwidth计算网络带宽
3/11/2012 14
0
10
20
30
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Net
wor
k ba
ndw
idth
(a.u
.)
Total bandwidth of transceivers sold pre year前一年所售出的收发器总带宽
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Network Bandwidth Growth Rate 网络带宽增长率
3/11/2012 15
Bandwidth = SUM over 5 years (Number of DWDM ports * Data Rate)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DWDM network bandwidth IP Traffic by CiscoDWDM 网络带宽 Cisco 提供的IP流量
带宽=5年以上带宽总量(DWDM端口数*速率)
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
2007 Forecast vs. Actual data 2007预测与实际数据
3/11/2012 16
DWDM Market
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 Forecast Actual Sales 真实数据2007预测
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Quarterly Sales of DWDM modules DWDM模块季度销售额
3/11/2012 17
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Quarterly Sales of SFP+ 10 GigE transceivers SFP+ 10GigE 收发器季度销售额
3/11/2012 18
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Sale
s ($
M)
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
10 GigE Forecasted and Actual shipments 预测的 10 GigE 收发器销售额与出货量
3/11/2012 19
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2007 Forecast Actual shipments 2009 Forecast2007年预测
实际出货量
2009年所做预测
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Global FTTx market全球FTTx市场
3/11/2012 20
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New FTTH subscribers ONU transceiver shipments
Laser ans IC chip shipments新FTTH用户
激光器和IC芯片出货量
ONU 收发器出货量
LIGHTCOUNTINGMarket Research on High-Speed InterconnectsDatacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
3/11/2012 21
Network Bandwidth Growth 网络带宽增长
Customer Premises Network
CoreNetwork
Net
wor
k Ba
ndw
idth
1 Mbps
20 Mbps 1 Tbps
10 Tbps
“To move up the value chain of profitable services, provider must deploy ample network bandwidth, end to end”Leping Wei, China Telecom 要想提高更有价值的服务,运营商必须提供
足够的带宽,点对点---中国电信韦乐平网络带宽
核心网
驻地网