Agriculture, Climate ChangeAgriculture, Climate Changeand Policyand Policy农业，气候变化和政策农业，气候变化和政策

David Howlett, University of LeedsDavid Howlett 英国利兹大学

My PerspectiveMy Perspective我的观点我的观点• Now a Researcher目前是一名研究人员• Former Policy adviser in DFID之前是 DFID 的政策咨询员• Experience of agriculture in climate

change negotiations参加农业气候变化谈判• Wanting to use model results for policy希望将模式结果用于政策

Questions – Questions – 问题问题• How How reliablereliable and and usefuluseful are climate are climate

change and crop models for policy change and crop models for policy makers and farmers?makers and farmers?气候变化和作物模型对政策制定者和农民有多气候变化和作物模型对政策制定者和农民有多可靠，多有用？可靠，多有用？

• Can agriculture adaptation be considered Can agriculture adaptation be considered alone, or alone, or must must it be considered with it be considered with mitigation of green house gases?mitigation of green house gases?单独考虑农业适应，还是与温室气体减排相结单独考虑农业适应，还是与温室气体减排相结合？合？

Modelling IssuesModelling Issues模式问题模式问题1. Climate models (reliability)气候模式（可靠性）2. Crop models (reliability)作物模式（可靠性）3. Combining models (reliability)二者结合的模式（可靠性）4. Socio-economic impacts (reliability)社会经济影响（可靠性）5. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty, building

on ESPA project量化和减少不确定性，建设 ESPA 项目

Wheat Yields 小麦产量

Observations观测 Simulations模拟

Precision and Accuracy精准

Accurate

准确Precise

精确Accurate +

Precise

精准

Wheat predictionsWheat predictions小麦预估小麦预估

Source Challinor et al. (2007)

Scenario情景 Range范围2 x CO2 in N. America2 倍 CO2 ，北美

-100 to +234%

+4oC low latitude+4oC 低纬度 -60 to +30%

+ 4oC mid to high latitude+4oC 中高纬度

-30 to +40%

Why do we need models?为什么我们需要模式？

中国在干旱方面风险巨大，源自英国 BBC 新闻– Millions at risk in China Drought BBC News

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1969

-19

71

1979

-19

81

1990

-19

92

1995

-19

97

2001

-03

2002

-04

2007

2008

2009

mill

ion

>1 billion

World Food Summit Targetmill

ion

>1 billion

World Food Summit Target

>1 billion

World Food Summit TargetWorld Food Summit Target

To Make Decisions To Make Decisions 做决策做决策• We need to know impact on people: 我们需要了解对人类的影响 Food prices粮食价格 Hunger饥饿 Nutrition营养 Livelihoods生计

Economic Growth经济增长 Migration迁移 Security安全 Conflict冲突

Impact on food pricesImpact on food prices 对粮食价格的影响对粮食价格的影响

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Impact on Child MalnutritionImpact on Child Malnutrition 对儿童营养不良的影响对儿童营养不良的影响

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Remember uncertainty and the risks if we don’t communicate如果我们不交流，须牢记不确定性和风险

Accurate

准确Precise

精确Accurate +

Precise

精准

Decisions on adaptationDecisions on adaptation 决策和适应决策和适应

• Research on new crops新作物研究

• Change practices改变耕作方式• Water management水资源管理• Migration迁移

• Migration迁移• Social protection社会保护• Disaster and Risk 灾难和风险• Infrastructure基础设施

But not just adaptationBut not just adaptationwe need to mitigate GHG from we need to mitigate GHG from

agriculture and carbon sequestrationagriculture and carbon sequestration但是除了适应，我们还需要进行农业减排但是除了适应，我们还需要进行农业减排和碳封存和碳封存

Agriculture EmissionsAgriculture Emissions 农业排放农业排放

• Direct source of GHG emissions (CH4 N2O)温室气体的直接排放源（ CH4 N2O ）• Loss of soil carbon土壤碳流失• Energy for fertilisers, transport,

processing and packaging化肥，运输，加工和包装所耗费的能源• Agriculture as a driver of deforestation农业是森林砍伐的主要原因

Global Problem/ 全球问题• Globally ~ 30% of total emissions from agriculture全球 ~30% 的排放来自农业• 6% of emissions, but if no change in practices then could be

30% of UK’s emissions by 2030到 2030 年，如果不改变耕作方式，英国的排放将由 6% 上升为 30%• Per capita emissions low but will go up by 2012 Hongmin

estimates +48% on 1994 levels人均排放低但将会逐渐上升。据 Hongmin 估计到 2012 年将比 1994 年• Global Research Alliance on Agriculture Green House Gas

emissions launched全球研究联盟对农业温室气体排放展开研究Agriculture included in climate change negotiations农业包括在气候变化谈判中

SequestrationSequestration封存封存• Can sequester 6 GT (88% of agriculture

emissions) e.g.可以封存 6 亿吨（农业排放的 88% ），例如– Conservation agriculture/ 保护性耕作– Rangeland management/ 牧场管理– Agroforestry/ 农林学

• MoA and SAIN projects:MoA 和 SAIN 项目：

– Impact of Climate Change and Technologies– 气候变化影响和技术– Estimates of future GHG & mitigation in China– 中国未来温室气体和减排量估计

Low Carbon Agriculture低碳农业• Policies that give win-win-wins:“ 三赢”政策

– Produce food, crops and incomes产生粮食，作物和收入– Resilience to climate change气候变化适应机制– Reduce emissions & sequester carbon减排和碳封存

• UK, China and Global Challenge英国，中国和全球挑战

3 Messages/3 Messages/ 要点要点1. Adaptation planning for agriculture must

consider mitigation of GHG and opportunities for carbon sequestration农业适应规划须考虑温室气体减排和碳封存中存在机遇

2. Understand what information policy makers and farmers need to make their decisions 理解政策制定者和农民需要什么信息进行决策

3. Develop models to provide information at the right time and format, and address uncertainty在恰当的时间，用合适的方式，开发可提供信息的模式，并解决不确定性

Thank YouThank You

d.j.b.howlett@leeds.ac.uk d.j.b.howlett@leeds.ac.uk +44 113 343 32590+44 113 343 32590

www.africacollege.leeds.ac.ukwww.africacollege.leeds.ac.uk