allegheny saf stonewall jackson state park, wv february 17-18, 2010 al schuler usda forest service...
TRANSCRIPT
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Allegheny SAFStonewall Jackson State Park , WV
February 17-18, 2010
Al SchulerUSDA Forest Service
Princeton, WV([email protected])
Urs BuehlmannVirginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA
Outlook for Markets – it’s a new worldout there as the housing collapse, changing
consumer preferencesand new legislation alter the playing field
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Presentation Content
① U.S. Housing Markets② U.S. Economy – recovery outlook③ U.S. Wood Products Markets④ International Trade Issues⑤ U.S. Forest Products Industry – Future
Opportunities⑥ Summary
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① U.S. HOUSING MARKETS
70% OF STRUCTURAL SOFTWOOD PRODUCTS AND 50% OR MORE OF HARDWOOD PRODUCTS ARE CONSUMED INRESIDNETIAL CONSTRUCTION (NEW PLUS REMODELING)
Bottom line – wood product markets will not improve muchuntil housing gets better
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Past notable downturns featured rising interest rates. Interest rates did not rise this time, but borrowing collapsed. The recent housing bust featured declining home equity & prices.
Source: Peter Ince, USDA FS, NAHB and Census Bureau data
“Baby Boom” era
Ho
usin
g B
ust →
→ →
→ →
U.S. New Home Sales - Long History
The latest boom-bust cycle was the biggest ever! It was distinct from cycles of the “baby boom” era. The latest boom was driven by a global credit boom that kept pushing home prices up (until 2006).
Credit
Boom e
ra
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Single Family Starts have Stabilizedbut, they are still down 74% from the peak(Jan. 2006)
Source: Census
Thousand units, SAAR
It’s tough to competeWith a resale marketThat includes a high proportionOf “distressed sales”
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Single Family Resales have stabilized and are improving thanks to tax credit and low mortgage
rates, but
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
"2004" "2005" "2006" "2007" "2008" "2009"
Monthly, Thousand units, SAAR
Source: NAR (http://www.realtor.org/research)
many sales are “distressed” dueto foreclosures – this will continue until the employment situation improves. 2009 vs 2008:SF volume up 5%, butprices are down 12%
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Prices are starting to come back to realityBut, foreclosure problems slow the processof balancing inventories
Until inventories come back to normal, pricePressures will continue and ImprovementIn housing will be slow.
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Case Shiller 20 City Price Index
January 2000 = 100
Prices still down 29% from the peak,but they have stabilized thanks togovernment support – but, prices needto fall further to reach historicalprice/income ratios
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Single family Housing Inventorystill “the problem”, but, its improving?
However, this is only the “listed inventory” – shadow inventory is substantial!
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1990199319961999200220052008
2009
2010
Existing New
Thousand Units, Single Family
Annual – 1990 - 2007
Monthly (SAAR) - 2008 – 2009
Source: U.S. Census (http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/hvs.html)
TREND
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The main problem in housing market - lost homes/foreclosures– by adding to supply, they put downwardpressure on prices – an insidious circle ,exacerbated byhigh unemployment and weak income growth
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Forecast from Moody’s and National Assoc. Realtors
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Latest Harvard* Housing Demand Forecasts 2010 – 2020 ( June 2009)
Source: HJCHS, W07-7 , amended (http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/publications_by_year.htm)
Annual rate (000)
2009 starts forecast
Vacancy demand – 2nd homes, speculation buildingremovals – net loss from existing inventoryof housing stock
Low rate: lower household formations & lower immigration projections
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② U.S. ECONOMY – RECOVERY OUTLOOK
Housing is stabilizing, albeit at low levelsForeclosures remain problem –
add to inventory and weak pricing
Consensus outlook (1) slow recovery in housing(2) slow recovery in the economy
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Why a slow recovery ?
HousingToo much housing inventoryNeed stronger demand to sop up
inventory, butWeak Economy
high unemployment+ weak income growth -
(negative in 09)+ consumer debt= weak consumer spending
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U.S. Economy in 2008
Source: BEA ( http://bea.gov/national/nipaweb)
Consumer spending 70%(consumption of goods & services by/for the consumer)
Net Exports (- 5)%
Government spending 20%
Non residential investment 11.7%
ResidentialInvestment (incl. R&A) 3.3%
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Spending on goods/services for/by the consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy ( and
big part of global economy)
Economy won’t get better until consumer spending improvesand that will be difficult due to high levels of debt
exacerbated by low inflation(i.e, debt burden is more onerous in low inflation environment)
Wild card - - Implications for the economy(and wood products) if consumer spending pullsback to 65% ( or lower) of the economy? Long term, this is good ( less consumption = more investment) =Better productivity = more competitive = higher GDP
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Cumulative Net change in Non Farm Payrollsover 7 million job losses in past 24 months
4.8 million in 2009 – 15.5 million unemployed today –but, it is definitely stabilizing
-8000-7500-7000-6500-6000-5500-5000-4500-4000-3500-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000
-5000
Source: U.S. BLS ( www.bls.gov)
( thousand )
January 2010(20,000)
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Global Economic Outlook
2009 - World wide recession ( except China & India) 2010 will see slow rebound in U.S. and Europe and stronger rebound in emerging countries Recovery in global economy hinges on U.S. consumer
U.S. economy ~ 27% of global economy ( 2006 basis)at 70% of U.S. economy, spending by/for American consumer products account for ~ 20% of global economy
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Global Economic Outlook
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2009 2010 2011-2016
China India World USA Euro region
Source: Conference Board ( December 2009)
GDP, percent change, YOY
Solid growth in China, India,and developing Asia Slow growth in advanced
economies – Europe, U.S.,Japan
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③ U.S. WOOD PRODUCTS MARKETS
Heavily geared to housing activities
70% of softwood lumber and structural panels consumed in new construction plus remodeling activity
The majority of hardwood products are tied to housingactivity, either directly ( e.g., kitchen cabinets, molding,flooring), or indirectly ( e.g. furniture).
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Softwood Market Shares:
Average use during 1998 – 2007
U.S. Softwood Lumber
Industrial16%
New Residential*40%
R&A30%
NR12%
U.S. Structural Panels
New Residential*53%
Industrial17%
R&A19%
NR.10%
*New Residential incl. SF, MF, and Mobile Homes
Source : Lumber – WWPA; Panels - APA
Export 2%
Export 2%
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
$160
$260
$360
$460
$560
$660
Starts Lumber ( FLC) Panels ( SPC)
Starts ( Million units) FOB, Price, $/M
Lumber and Panel Prices Follow HousingBetween 2005 – 2008: North American lumber production down 31% (23 BBF),
prices down 31%; structural panel production down 12.4 BSF, prices down 29%
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U.S. Hardwood Lumber Consumption Trends
0
1
2
3
4
5
1963 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Furniture Construction & Remodeling*
Industrial Exports
BBF
Source: Bill Luppold, USDA FS
* flooring, millwork, trusses, cabinets, & fabricated wood members
Residential markets are now 3.5 times the size of furniture marketsExports bigger than furniture
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Index of Hardwood Lumber, Cross Ties and Pallet Cant Prices 2004 to 2009
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2004
= 1
00
FAS 1C 2C Pallet Tie
Source: Bill Luppold
Impact of housing collapse
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Eastern Hardwood Lumber Production 1958 to 2009
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Mil
lio
ns
of
bo
ard
fee
t
Source: Bill LUppold
2009 level about 6.5 BBFDown 48% from peak in 1999
(2009 estimated based on a survey of state utilization foresters)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
U.S. softwood lumber output is currently down by -46% and OSB down by -56% since 2005 . . .
U.S. Softwood Lumber Production Billion Board Feet
Source: WWPA (p = 3rd Quarter 09)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
Source: APA – The Engineered Wood Assoc.
OSB Production Billion Sq Ft 3/8" Basis
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U.S. Log Price Trends (2002 – 2009) . . .Starting to get better!!
Log prices generally followed lumber markets, climbing to recent peaks in 2004-2005, but collapsing with the housing bust. The drop in log prices (-24% for softwood and -27% for hardwood from recent peaks) is now similar to the average drop in lumber prices.
Source: Peter Ince, USDA FS, BLS Source: Peter Ince, USDA FS, BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
75
100
125
150
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pri
ce
In
de
xe
s (
19
82
= 1
00
)
150
175
200
225
250Hardwood Logs
Softwood Logs
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Capacity Utilization - U.S. Softwoods
Production/Capacity
Sources: OSB – APA; Lumber RISI
Both approaching 50% utilizationThat means lots of downtime,shutdowns ,and little or no profit
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Global Drivers . . .Global Drivers . . .
Trade liberalization (GATT Trade liberalization (GATT WTO) WTO)
Expanded global commerce Expanded global commerce
Shift of manufacturing growth to Asia and EuropeShift of manufacturing growth to Asia and Europe
Collapse of global financial system (current recession)Collapse of global financial system (current recession)
④ International Trade Issues
Source: Peter Ince, USDA FS
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Domestically-produced shares* of U.S. consumption declined for many wood products from 1990 to 2008 –Implications for demand for U.S. wood and timber?
*Consumption Value = P + I – E Import share = I / C Domestic share = 1.0 – ( I / C)
Sources: Shipments : Dept Commerce, Bureau Census , ASMImports & Exports : FAS, B. Luppold for hardwood lumber, P. Ince for paper & board
2006 datafor flooring &molding
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Kitchen cabinets Upholstered Wood Office
HH Furniture Molding(hwd + soft) Hardwood Flooring
*These market shares are conservative because some imported components and finished furniture is included in the domestic shipments
Consumption = shipments + imports – exports. Import share = imports/consumption
Source: Census, ASM; ITA (www.ita.doc.gov)
Market Share of U.S. Imports
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Forest Products Export Trade
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
World (L)
U.S. Share (R )
World Exports (Billion $) U.S. Share (%)
FAO – ForesSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/site/626/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=626#ancor)
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U.S. Softwood Lumber Trade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Imports- Canada Imports - Elsewhere Exports
Source: RISI, WWPA
BBF
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Hardwood Lumber Exports 1990 to 2009
(2009 based on volume through May 2009)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Mill
ion
s o
f b
oa
rd f
ee
t
Source: Bill Luppold, USDA FS
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Export opportunities -
China building code changes– to allow wood frame construction in Shanghai – the Shanghai local code may be easily adaptable to other cities and provinces across China
Russian export tax – opportunities for other suppliers e.g., China is largest importer of Russian logs –
in 2007, China imported 27 million m3 from Russiaincluding hardwoods and softwoods – 75% of
China’stotal log imports. In April, 2008, the tax went to 25%(from 5%), and is scheduled to go to 80% in 2010.
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Products Rate or minimum amount
Jul1, 2007
Apr 1, 2008 Jan1 2009
Softwood logs (>15cm)
%Euro/m3
20%10
25%15
25%50
Hardwood logs(.>15cm)
%Euro/m3
20%24
20%24
100%50
Poplar %Euro/m3
10%5
10%5
80%50
Industrial Birch %Euro/m3
10%5
Russian Export Tax Update
Source: Russ Taylor, Wood Markets Monthly, Vancouver, CanadaDecember 2009
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World Log Exports – hardwoods and softwoods
Source: Global trade atlas
Billion $
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World Log Imports – hardwoods and softwoods
Source: Global trade atlas
Billion $
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Russian Log Exports – hardwoods and softwoods
Source: Global trade atlas
Billion $
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China Log Imports – hardwoods and softwoods
Source: Global trade atlas
Billion $
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⑤ U.S. FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRY - FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
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New Opportunities – new climate –Good or Bad – Depends on us!
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2008 - sets targets for cellulosic biofuels production through 2022 – 36 billion gallons renewable fuels by 2022 – 21 of the 36 must be “advanced biofuels such as cellulosic ethanol
American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009(Waxman/Markley climate change bill - establish targets to obtain a certain percent of electricity (17%) from “renewable sources” fuels including biomass by 2018 – objective is to reduce GHG emissions
Resource constraints + climate change policies + shifting consumer values
“Use to be a simple business of converting trees into lumber, panels, and paperNow, uniquely positioned ,or exposed, to political and economic forces that Are reshaping the regulatory and market landscapes” - - A,.Sauer, World Resources Institute
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Impacts on forest products industry
New revenue streams and markets for forest products and services(1) carbon storage and sequestration – “being paid to grow
trees”(2) biomass and biofuels for transport fuels and electricity
Competitive advantages in a low carbon economycarbon neutral/carbon negative productsthere will be incentives to reduce green house gas emissionsvia carbon tax or cap and trade system
Green preferences will increase with increasing awareness of climate change benefits of sustainable forest products.
Wood products industry must get involved to make sure these benefits evolve!
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U.S. Oil Supply
58%42%
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World comparisons – Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Source: EIA
U.S. produces 20% of emissions,With 5% of population
American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 mandates goals/targets/timetables for reduction in CO2 emissions – data below shows the U.S.Has long ways to go
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Source: EIA
Great opportunity for wood as climateChange policies directly, or indirectly raise theprice of energy from fossil fuels
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Source: FAO – state of world’s forests 2009
Domestic production
Imports
Europe is largest market for wood pellets – why?(1) European Union mandated 20% of electricity from renewable sourcesby 2020, and (2) high taxes on CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
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Source: Forisk Consulting
Changing Supply Chain - - - New/Additional Fiber Demand from Wood BioEnergy in U.S. SouthRanges from 10% to 25% depending on technology and financing –Will drive pulpwood/chip prices higher, and eventually, sawtimber, and veneer prices as landowners shorten rotations/harvest age.
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New fiber demands depend on technology, and financing of bioenegy facilities. Much of the fiber will be pulpwood and chips as economics ofHarvesting crowns, limbs, etc. is ”iffy”. Estimates range from 15 to 35 million additional tons of pulpwood/chips will be needed for bioenergy by 2020.Thus, 10 % to 25% additional fiber demand based on 2006 consumption levels of 130 million tons.
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Sign of the times??Minnesota OSB plant converted to Biomass facility
(Dec. 2009)
With the demise in U.S. housing, the OSB industryhas excess capacity – an older OSB plant in Cook, MNwas recently purchased by Hill Biomass for conversionto biomass products (pellet plant)
Another recent item (Feb. 2010) – Weyerhaeuser andMitsubishi sign MOU to join forces to produce wood pellets
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10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Supply
Demand
North American Wood Residue Supply (from 3 main sources) and Demand (from 4 main end uses).
Million Metric Tons
Excess supply of fine wood residues has nearly evaporated . . . suggesting that future expansion of wood pellet capacity would have to rely on more costly alternative wood sources . . .
Source: Spelter, USDA, FPL
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Green Building (sustainable) Trends
• Market for “green homes” is expected to increase from $2 billion
to $20 billion over the next five years in the USA• Implications for wood products industry: certified wood
products plus LEED and other green building certification programs will benefit wood – any trends that promote sustainable products will favor wood!
Life cycle analysis shows that wood is a sustainable material.
What is green building? A philosophy that focuses on buildings that:(1) Efficiently using water, energy, and other resources(2) Protecting occupant health and improving employee productivity(3) Reducing waste, pollution and environmental degradation
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U.S. Residential Green Home Market Opportunity
$7 $12
$40$8
$30
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2005 2008 2013
Lower market size Upper market size
Billion $
Source: McGraw – Hill construction market forecastMcGraw _ Hill construction, Green Outlook 2009
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Green homes accounted for 17% of SF homes built in 2008-- - up from 12% in 2007 - - over 1 million new homes have the Energy Star designation
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Source: M. Snow, AHEC
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Source: M. Snow, AHEC
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Source: Mike Snow, AHEC
Lacey Act, as amended*, will encourage more acreageof certified forests plus more COC certificates?*The Lacy Act of 1900,originally designed to combat illegal trafficking of wildlife and fish, was amended in 2008 to include illegal logging and products made from illegally harvested timber
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Today, 8% of global forest area is certified by the FSC or PEFC In addition, there are additional areas certified by other systems
Source: FAO, AFPMR – 2008-2009
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Wood products markets won’t improve until housing improves
Housing improvement hinges on balancing supply and demand - Foreclosures are a big problem on supply side
Stronger economy is key to stronger housing demand and fewer foreclosures
Consumer spending is big question mark – 70% of economy - - consumers are heavily in debt ( so is federal government)
U.S. economy will recover slowly as will housing
⑥ Conclusions
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International economy in recession in 2009 with mixed recovery in 2010 – U.S., Europe, and Japan recover slowly while China and India see stronger growth. Growth depends on health of U.S.
consumer International trade in wood products – stronger world growth (2010)
and favorable exchange rates should fuel stronger U.S. exports. Opportunities to expand log and lumber exports to wood starved
China
New opportunities ( and challenges) for forest product industry brought on by changing consumer preferences and new legislation - - biofuels, wood pellets, carbon storage – cap and trade legislation,
green building materials, certified forest products, amended Lacey Act
Problems – higher wood fiber prices if biofuels and wood pellets compete with existing industries for roundwood and residues – good for log prices, but not so good for OSB , PB, and MDF industries