זיהוי סיכונים

by Liora Shapiro

August 2008

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

> Overview> Identify Risks by PreMortem> Summary

Agenda

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Risk - An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectivesSource: PMBOK

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Risk Management - identify potential problems before they occur, so that risk-handling activities may be planned and invoked as needed … to mitigate adverse impacts on achieving objectives Source: CMMI

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

While a PostMortem helps us learn why a patient

has died, a PreMortem explores why a project

might die in the future

The PreMortem technique helps anticipate a

plan's weaknesses

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Preparation

Team members should already be familiar with the

plan, or else have the plan described to them so

they can understand what is supposed to be

happening.

Team members take out sheets of paper and get

relaxed in their chairs.

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Imagine a fiasco

Imagine the project has totally

failed.

Then ask, “What could have

caused this?”

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Generate reasons for failure

Spend the next three minutes writing

down all the reasons they think the

project failed.

Each person has a different set of

experiences, a different set of scars, and

a different mental model.

You get what the collective knowledge in

the room can produce.

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Consolidate the lists

Ask each person to state one item from

the list.

Each item is recorded on a whiteboard.

This process continues until every

member of the group has revealed every

item on their list.

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Revisit the plan

The team can address the two or three items of

greatest concern, and then schedule another

meeting to discuss ideas for avoiding or minimizing

other problems

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Periodically review the list

Monitor preventive plan

re-sensitise the team to the

problems that may be emerging

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Use your imagination to identify risks

Preparation

Imagine a fiasco

Generate reasons for failure

Consolidate the lists

Revisit the plan

Periodically review the list

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

Thank you

Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244