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#%>'17)* (*17%. 2000/ ;. J*:%1 . +(./ &'(. 1 %-/8. — K: ?4+%7'8917)* «;'19 K.(», 2001. — 352 1.ISBN 5E7777E0148E5

#-./% D('+17%)83'7 ('40897%75 %-%8.7.>'1,*/* .118'+*)%-.3 1D'F.%8.E17*) ?-17.707% ;1':.(-*/* <%-,% D* 7%,.: ,8C>')5: )*D(*1%: :.(*E)*/* (%4).7.3, ,%, 0D(%)8'-.' /8*<%89-5:. (.1,%:., /*10+%(17)'--*'0D(%)8'-.', (%1D('+'8'-.' )*4:*@-*17'2, 017*2>.)*179 *,(0@%C6'21('+5. ;1' L7. ,*:D*-'-75 )B*+37 ) D*-37.' «,%>'17)* (*17%». ; ,-./'7%,@' D*+(*<-* (%4<.(%C713 7%,.' D*-37.3, ,%, «(%4).7.'», «>'8*)'>'1E,.2 . D(.(*+-52 ,%D.7%8», «,%>'17)* @.4-.», (%11:%7(.)%'713 )8.3-.'7':D*) L,*-*:.>'1,*/* (*17% -% 1-.@'-.' <'+-*17.. ?4+%-.' D('+-%4E-%>'-* +83 D*8.7.,*), 1D'F.%8.17*) D* /*10+%(17)'--*:0 0D(%)8'-.C,L,*-*:.17*), L,*8*/*), D('D*+%)%7'8'2 . 170+'-7*).

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1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, USAISBN 5E7777E0148E5

!"#$%&#'()*+' "(+,+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XV-.'/&"(+,&' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XIX012+314 5.$%%1 /+6(1/1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXIII-.'/&"(+,&' 6 .$""6+7$ &8/1*&9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXV:28+. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXVII

!"#$%&'(') *(#+,',- , .*/0"11) */1'( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXVII2*,30,.) *(#+,',- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXIX4"51'+,-, 3" ./%$6(78," 9/1'('/63/:/ +3,;(3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . XXXIV2"*"1;/'* .*,/*,'"'/+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXXVIII

1. ;'.+,*<' .'8$()#1#< .18,&#&4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1<0"3=( *(#+,',-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2!"#$%&'(') *(#+,',-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6>=/3/;,6"1=,5 */1' , ?%(:/1/1'/-3," . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24@(A3/1'& +3"B3,C D(='/*/+. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24<1/?/" #3(6"3," ./9C/9/+ +3$'*, 1'*(3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28@(A3)" 3(.*(+%"3,- 9"51'+,5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2. =6#&,<, .+"# & 2(15+"+"#+4*&' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39E3(%,',6"1=(- ?(#( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41>;.,*,6"1=," *"#$%&'(') . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51@)+/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

3. >+,'.?'*"#,$4 .1"%.'/'('*&' ,+87+@*+"#'A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652/'"30,(%&3)" +):/9) /' /?*(#/+(3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66<93/:/ =/%,6"1'+( 3"9/1'('/63/ — +(A3/ '(=A" , =(6"1'+/ . . . . . 684/1',A"3," 1.*(+"9%,+/1', /?*(#/+(3,- , 1/0,(%&3/:/+=%76"3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 754/1',A"3," ?/%&B"5 9"51'+"33/1', :/1$9(*1'+"33)C*(1C/9/+. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882/+)B"3," .*/,#+/9,'"%&3/1', /?*(#/+(3,-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97@)+/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

4. >+B.1*'*&' %.&.+/*+5+ 61%&#1(1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109F3(6,'"%&3)" ./'"*, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

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F3(6,'"%&3)" +):/9) /' 9"51'+,5 ./ /C*(3" /=*$A(78"51*"9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115G+-#& ;"A9$ H=/3/;,6"1=,; */1'/;, .*,*/93); =(.,'(%/;, ?%(:/1/1'/-3,"; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116@=%76"3," H=/%/:,6"1=/5 $1'/56,+/1', + 1'*('":,,*/1'( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1282"*"1;/'* */%, :/1$9(*1'+( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134I%/?(%&3)" H=/%/:,6"1=," .*/?%";) '*"?$7'*"B"3,-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139@)+/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142

5. -.+2('71 5(+21()*<B C&*1*"+,<B .&"6+,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147!(1B,*"3," *)3=/+ =(.,'(%( , 3"1'(?,%&3/1'& ./'/=/+=(.,'(%( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1482*,6,3) , ./1%"91'+,- 3"1'(?,%&3/1', ./'/=/+ =(.,'(%( . . . . . 150J.*(+%"3," *,1=/;: .*"A3," , 3)3"B3," ./9C/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158K,*/=(- ?(#( $.*(+%"3,- *,1=/; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161@)+/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

6. D+"$/1."#,'**+' $%.1,('*&' & 2+.)21" 6+..$%E&'A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173I/1$9(*1'+"33/" $.*(+%"3," +%,-"' 3( =(6"1'+/ */1'( . . . . . . . . . . . 174L/**$.0,- ./9*)+("' */1' , *(#+,'," . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1842*,6,3) =/**$.0,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189L/;.%"=13(- 1'*('":,- ?/*&?) 1 =/**$.0,"5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193@)+/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

7. F"%+()8$4 ,+87+@*+"#& /(4 +"$G'"#,('*&4 &87'*'*&A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213M(#( , '";) (3(%,#( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2134"51'+,- ./ /?"1."6"3,7 =(6"1'+( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217I9" , =(= .*/-+,%, 1"?- ./9C/9), 3(.*(+%"33)" 3(/?"1."6"3," =(6"1'+(? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219L/%,6"1'+/ ,%, =(6"1'+/: ./%,',6"1=(- H=/3/;,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2222*/9+,A"3," +."*"9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

H&2(&+5.1C&4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

-.&(+@'*&41. :2G&' E'(& & &*"#.$7'*#< . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

N"%, , ;"*) ./%,',=,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225G/1'(+3)" ,39"=1) *(#+,',- 6"%/+"6"1=/:/ ./'"30,(%(, $1'/56,+/:/ *(#+,',- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

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2. =*1(&#&3'"614 2181 & /1**<' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231O$3=0,- ?%(:/1/1'/-3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231<.',;,#(0,- 6(1'3/:/ 1"='/*( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232<.,1(3," H=/3/;"'*,6"1=/5 ;/9"%, 9%- /0"3=, D$3=0,5*/1'( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

3. 01"%.'/'('*&' +2.18+,1*&4, +#6.<#+"#)& .+"# . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253!(1B,*"33(- .*/,#+/91'+"33(- D$3=0,- 1*(1.*"9"%"3,"; /?*(#/+(3,-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254>;.,*,6"1=,5 (3(%,# /?*(#/+(3,- , /'9(6, /' ,3+"1',0,5 . . . . 257P"=/'/*(- %,'"*('$*( ./ *(1.*"9"%"3,7 (=',+/+ , */1'$ . . . . . . . 260

4. F87'.'*&' %.&.+/*+5+ 61%&#1(1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

5. I&*1*"+,14 +#6.<#+"#) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2652*,;"6(3," = ./=(#('"%-; $-#+,;/1', , 3"1'(?,%&3/1',1'*(3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2682*,;"6(3," ./ *(#%,6,-; +(%/+/:/ +3$'*"33":/ .*/9$='( . . . . . 2682*,;"6(3," ./ 9+$6%"33/5 ;/9"%, Logit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269G+/93)" 1'(',1',6"1=," 9(33)" 9%- ."*";"33)C,,1./%&#/+(33)C + I%(+" 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270

6. D+"$/1."#,'**+' $%.1,('*&' & &*/'6"<6+..$%E&&, 7'#+/< 15.'5&.+,1*&4, *+,<'J7%&.&3'"6&' %+6181#'(& &J6+*+7'#.&3'"6&' %.+2('7< . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273<.*"9"%"3," :/1$9(*1'+"33/:/ $.*(+%"3,- , ":/*(#%/A"3," 3( 1/1'(+3)" 6(1', . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273Q#;"*"3," =/**$.0,, , "" *(#%/A"3," 3( 1/1'(+3)" 6(1', . . . . . 277

!"#1,6&1 P(=/.%"3," (=',+/+, */1' , ?%(:/1/1'/-3,". . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXXI2.1 G/0,(%&3)5 =(.,'(%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462.2 @(*,(3') ./99"*A(3,- H=/3/;,6"1=/:/ */1'(: M*(#,%,-,

R,%, , !"1.$?%,=( L/*"- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523.1 !(#3,0( ;"A9$ ?"93);, , ?/:(');, +"%,=( , + #9/*/+&" . . . . . . 813.2 G/9"51'+," /?$6"3,7 9"+/6"= + M(3:%(9"B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 843.3 P(*/9/3(1"%"3," , *(#+,'," . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 954.1 JC$9B"3," 1/1'/-3,- /=*$A(78"5 1*"9) + Q39,, . . . . . . . . . . . 1134.2 S"A9$3(*/93)" 9"51'+,- ./ /C*(3" /=*$A(78"5 1*"9) . . . . 1174.3 P(*/9/3(1"%"3,", ?"93/1'& , /=*$A(78(- 1*"9( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1234.4 >=/3/;,6"1=/" *(#+,'," , /=*$A(78(- 1*"9( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

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4.5 R(1'3(- .*,?)%& #( 16"' :/1$9(*1'+(: =/**$.0,- +%"13/; 1"='/*" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

4.6 S"A9$3(*/93/" 1/'*$93,6"1'+/ + 0"%-C 1;-:6"3,-./1%"91'+,5 ,#;"3"3,- ;,*/+/:/ =%,;('( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

5.1. <'=*)'/1'& ;"A9$3(*/93); ./'/=(; =(.,'(%(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1535.2 R,%,: /'=*)'/1'&, ;"*) =/3'*/%- #( =(.,'(%/; ,

1/0,(%&3(- #(8,'( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1676.1 I/1$9(*1'+"33/" $.*(+%"3," , ,31'*$;"3')

9,(:3/1',6"1=/:/ /?1%"9/+(3,-: 1,%( H;.,*,6"1=,C 9(33)C . . . 2046.2 @)*(A"3," ,3'"*"1/+ =(= ;"C(3,#; 9/1',A"3,-

.*/#*(63/1', , ./9/'6"'3/1', . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2056.3 S,%%,/3) «*"+,#/*/+» ./+)B(7' .*/#*(63/1'& ,

$%$6B(7' *(?/'$ :/1$9(*1'+( .*, $.*(+%"3,, ?79A"'/;, + 9*$:,C /?%(1'-C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208

7.1 <?"1."6"3," =(6"1'+( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218

0&"$*6&1. G'*$='$*( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XXXII1.1 !/1' @@2 , ,#;"3"3,- + =(6"1'+" A,#3,,

1960T" , 1990T" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51.2 Q#;"3"3," + *(#+,',, 6"%/+"6"1=/:/ ./'"30,(%( , */1'

9/C/9(, 1981–1898 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.3 J*/+3, ?"93/1', , =/%,6"1'+/ ?"93)C, /'9"%&3)" :/9) . . . . . . . . 81.4 !(1.*/1'*(3"33/1'& ?"93/1', + 3"=/'/*)C 1'*(3(C

1 ."*"C/93/5 H=/3/;,=/5, 1987–1988 , 1993–1995 ::. . . . . . . . . . . 91.5 Q#;"3"3,- 1/1'/-3,- /=*$A(78"5 1*"9) , */1' 9/C/9(,

1981–1998 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.6 G$;;(*3/" =/%,6"1'+/ +#+"B"33)C 6(1',0 + /'9"%&3)C

:/*/9(C, 3(6(%/ 1990TC :/9/+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121.7 2/9$B"+/5 @@2, 1=/**"=',*/+(33)5 ./ .(*,'"'$

./=$.('"%&3/5 1./1/?3/1',, 1975–1998 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141.8 !/1' ./9$B"+/:/ @@2, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3), 1975–1998 :/9) . . . . 181.9 P"*(+"31'+/ ./ 9/C/9$ +3$'*, 1'*(3: 1980T" , 1990T" :/9). . . . 211.10 P"1'(?,%&3/1'& '";./+ */1'( @@2 ./ 9"1-',%"',-;. . . . . . . . . . . . 231.11 I/1$9(*1'+"33)" *(1C/9) 3( /?*(#/+(3,", ./ *":,/3(;,

/'9"%&3)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291.12 U/*:/+)" ?(*&"*), /'9"%&3)" *":,/3), 1984–1993 :/9). . . . . . . 321.13 2*";,, 3( .(*(%%"%&3/; *)3=", 1970–1990T" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . 333.1 G//'3/B"3," ;"A9$ :/1$9(*1'+"33);, *(1C/9(;, 3( 9$B$

3(1"%"3,- , $*/+3"; /?*(#/+(3,-, #( *(#%,63)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . 693.2 2/=(#('"%, /=/36(3,- 1*"93"5 B=/%) 9%- %,0 + +/#*(1'"

20–25 %"' ./ $*/+37 9/C/9( 9/;/C/#-51'+, 3"=/'/*)"1'*(3) V(',31=/5 E;"*,=, , /'9"%&3)" :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

!"#$%&'()$

3.3 L/HDD,0,"3') 4A,3, 9%- /?*(#/+(3,-, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3),1960–1990 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

3.4 L*,+)" V/*"30(, C(*(='"*,#$78," /?*(#/+(3," + Q39,,, L/*"", 1990 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

3.5 F3(6"3,- =/HDD,0,"3'/+ 4A,3, 9%- /?*(#/+(3,-./ 85 1'*(3(;, 1990 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

3.6 G;"*'3/1'& 1*"9, 9"'"5 + +/#*(1'" 9+$C %"' , ;%(9B",./ $*/+37 9/C/9(, M*(#,%,-, 1996 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

3.7 S"9,(3( #(=/36"33)C %"' /?$6"3,- 9%- %,0 + +/#*(1'"15–19 %"' ,# ?/:(')C , ?"93)C 9/;/C/#-51'+, 3"=/'/*)"1'*(3) , :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

3.8 I/9) /?$6"3,- + B=/%" 9%- %,0 + +/#*(1'" 25 %"' ,#?/:(')C , ?"93)C 9/;/C/#-51'+ + V(',31=/5 E;"*,=" . . . . . . . . . 83

3.9 !(#*)+ ;"A9$ ./%(;, , 3"*(+"31'+/ + /?*(#/+(3,,,1970 , 1990 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

3.10 U*"39/+)" ./=(#('"%, 1/=*(8"3,- ?"93/1', , */1'( +).$1=(,3" 1+-#(33/:/ 1 1"%&1=,; C/#-51'+/;, + Q39,,, 1960–1994 :/9) . . . 90

3.11(. M"93/1'& , *(#;"* #";"%&3)C 3(9"%/+, M(3:%(9"B,1988–1989 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

3.11b. 4/%- 9/C/9( + 1980T" :/9) , =/HDD,0,"3') 4A,3, 9%-#";%, + 1960T" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

3.12 <?*(#/+(3,", /'=*)'/1'& , H=/3/;,6"1=(-(3(*/93/C/#-51'+"33(-) 1'(+=( /'9(6, + 1 265 .*/"='(C@1";,*3/:/ ?(3=( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

4.1 O/*;) */1'( , =(6"1'+/ /=*$A(78"5 1*"9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1265.1 !(#;"* ;,*/+)C D,3(31/+)C *)3=/+ , /?W";) ;,*/+/5

'/*:/+%,, 1980–1996 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1495.2 !/1' , 13,A"3," ;,*/+)C ./'/=/+ =(.,'(%(,

1990–1999 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1515.3 G+-#& ;"A9$ 9,1."*1,"5 '";./+ H=/3/;,6"1=/:/ */1'( ,

3"1'(?,%&3/1'&7 ./'/=/+ 6(1'3/:/ =(.,'(%(,1975–1996 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

5.4 G+-#, ;"A9$ 9";/=*(',"5, D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1'&7, ./9+,A3/1'&7 =(.,'(%( , :/1$9(*1'+"33);, 1/0,(%&3);,*(1C/9(;,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

5.5 G+-#& ;"A9$ D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1'&7 , 1/0,(%&3);,*(1C/9(;,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

5.6 L%(11,D,=(0,- 1'*(3: ./%,',6"1=," .*(+( , D,3(31/+(-/'=*)'/1'&. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

6.1 P(%,6," +%(1', #(=/3(: .*"91'(+%"3," ./ ;"'/9,="«1+"'/D/*(» . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

6.2 M/*&?( 1 =/**$.0,"5: .*"91'(+%"3," ./ ;"'/9,="«1+"'/D/*(» . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181

!"#$%&'()$

6.3 «4,+,9"39) *(#+,',-» + *"#$%&'('" C/*/B":/:/1$9(*1'+"33/:/ $.*(+%"3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

6.4 L/**$.0,- *":*"11,+3(: *"#$%&'(') 9,(:3/1',6"1=,C/?1%"9/+(3,5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

6.5 L/**$.0,- , /'1$'1'+," ;"*,'/=*(',6"1=/:/ ./9C/9( + :/1$9(*1'+"33)C 1'*$='$*(C #('*$93-7' 9%- ?"93)C9/1'$. = $1%$:(;: *"#$%&'(') 9,(:3/1',6"1=/:/ /?1%"9/+(3,-:/1$9(*1'+"33)C 6,3/+3,=/+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

6.6 «S"%=," +#-'=,» , /%,:(*C,6"1=,5 #(C+(' :/1$9(*1'+(:.*,3/1,' %, =/**$.0,- +):/9) .*"9.*,-',7? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191

6.7 L/**$.0,- , :*(A9(31=," .*(+(. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1926.8 S"*,'/=*(',6"1=,5 ./9C/9 ;/A"' 13,#,'& =/**$.0,7:

9(33)" ./ =(A9/;$ +"9/;1'+$ — ,# /?1%"9/+(3,5:/1$9(*1'+"33)C 6,3/+3,=/+ + '*"C 1'*(3(C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

6.9 L/;.%"=13(- 1'*('":,- ?/*&?) 1 =/**$.0,"5 , 1/+"*B"31'+/+(3,- :/1$9(*1'+"33/:/ $.*(+%"3,-: $6"'./%,',6"1=/5 H=/3/;,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

6.10 F3(6,'"%&3)" *(#%,6,- + =(6"1'+" 1$9/++ 3"=/'/*)C 1'*(3(C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200

6.11 <%,:(*C,6"1=,5 #(C+(' 7*,9,6"1=/5 , 1$9"?3/5 1,1'";)+ 3"=/'/*)C 1'*(3(C 1 ."*"C/93/5 H=/3/;,=/5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

E1.1 N"%, *(#+,',- , ,31'*$;"3') ./%,',=, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227E2.1 2/1'/-33(- /'9(6( /' ;(1B'(?( , /'1$'1'+," «HDD"='(

."*"'"=(3,-», ?%(:/9(*- '"C3/%/:,6"1=,; 9/1',A"3,-; . . . . . 239E2.2 «V/+$B=,» .*/A,'/63/:/ ;,3,;$;(, */1'( , ?"93/1', —

1*"9, ?"93)C: G,'$(0,- 1 ./1'/-33/5 /'9(6"5 /' ;(1B'(?(, /'1$'1'+,"; «HDD"='( ."*"'"=(3,-» . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243

E5.1 L/**"%-0,, ;"A9$ D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1'&7,./%,',6"1=,;, .*(+(;, , :*(A9(31=,;, 1+/?/9(;, . . . . . . . . . 272

K12(&E<1.1 L/**"%-0,- ./=(#('"%"5 *(#+,',-, 1981–1998 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.2 !"#$%&'(') *(#+,',- ./ =%(11(; */1'(,

1980T" , 1990T" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251.3 P( +3$'*"33," *"#$%&'(') +%,-7' +3"B3," D(='/*),

.*,;"*) #( 1997–1999 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271.4 !"#$%&'(') .*,;"3"3,- ./9C/9/+, ./ =('":/*,-; */1'(,

1980T" , 1990T" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352.1 P"=/'/*)" ."*";"33)" 9%- M*(#,%,,, R,%, , L/*",. . . . . . . . . . . 532.2. E3(%,# ./=(#('"%"5 *(#+,',- ./ 60 1'*(3(;, .*/+/9,+B,; ,

3" .*/+/9,+B,; *"D/*;), #( /'9"%&3)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 543.1 L/%,6"1'+/ ./+'/*/+ , ./=(#('"%, /'1"+( + 3(6(%&3/5

B=/%", /'9"%&3)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

!"#$%&'()$

3.2 I/1$9(*1'+"33)" *(1C/9) ./ $*/+3-; /?*(#/+(3,-,L/*"-, /'9"%&3)" :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

3.3 I/1$9(*1'+"33)" *(1C/9) ,# *(16"'( 3( /93/:/ $6(8":/1-./ $*/+3-; /?*(#/+(3,-, + ."*,/9 1960T" — 1990T" :/9) . . . . . . 93

3.4 U"=$8," :/1$9(*1'+"33)" *(1C/9) ,# *(16"'( 3( /93/:/ $6(8":/1-, Q39,- , L/*"-, /'9"%&3)" :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

4.1 XA":/93)" ,#9"*A=, 9%- #9/*/+&-, 1+-#(33)"1 #(:*-#3"3,"; +/#9$C( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

4.2 XA":/93)" ,#9"*A=, 9%- #9/*/+&-, 1+-#(33)" 1#(:*-#3"3,"; +/9) , #(?/%"+(3,-;,, ."*"9(78,;,1-6"*"# +/9$ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

4.3 U/*:/+%-, H=/3/;,6"1=,5 */1', ?"93/1'& , $C$9B"3,"1/1'/-3,- /=*$A(78"5 1*"9), /'9"%&3)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

4.4. L%(11,D,=(0,- /'9"%&3)C 1'*(3 + 1//'+"'1'+,, 19,3(;,=/5 H=/3/;,6"1=/:/ */1'( , ,#;"3"3,";1/1'/-3,- /=*$A(78"5 1*"9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

4.5 >=/%/:,6"1=," $1%$:, %"1/+ + L/1'(T!,=" , ,C?"3"D,0,(*). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

5.1 !/1' *)3=( .*/,#+/93)C ,31'*$;"3'/+,1991–1997 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

5.2 G'*(3), 1:*$..,*/+(33)" ./ 1'"."3, D,3(31/+/5/'=*)'/1', . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

5.3 !"#$%&'(') *(16"'/+ + 9+$6%"33/5 ;/9"%, Logit 9%-+"*/-'3/1', .*,3(9%"A3/1', 1'*(3 = =('":/*,-;+)1/=/:/ $*/+3- *(#+,',- 9";/=*(',, , +)1/=/51'"."3, D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1', . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

6.1 <?/?8"33(- ;('*,0(: =/**$.0,- , ?"93/1'& . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1876.2 @%,-3," :*(A9(31=,C 1+/?/9 3(

1/0,(%&3/TH=/3/;,6"1=$7 /'9(6$ /' .*/"='/+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207E1.1 G+-#, ;"A9$ 0"%-;, *(#+,',- , ,31'*$;"3'(;, ./%,',=,,

1981–1998 :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226E2.1 J*(+3"3," */1'( .*, *(#3)C $1%/+,-C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247E2.2 U";.) */1'( @@2 .*, *":*"11,, ./ #(.(1(; 3( *(?/'3,=(

(+1" 1'*(3), ./ =/'/*); ,;""'1- ,3D/*;(0,-, #( ."*,/91965–1990 ::.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248

E2.3 F3(6"3,- H%(1',63/1', #(.(1( ,# *(16"'( 3( /93/:/*(?/'3,=( ./ '";.(; */1'( ./9$B"+/:/ @@2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

E2.4 P"=/'/*)" H;.,*,6"1=," ,11%"9/+(3,- +%,-3,- , *(#;"*(1$?1,9,5 =(.,'(%( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

E3.1 L/HDD,0,"3') 4A,3, 9%- /?*(#/+(3,-, ./ /'9"%&3);1'*(3(; + /.*"9"%"33)" :/9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

E3.2 2*/,#+/91'+"33(- D$3=0,-: %,3"53)5 *(16"' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256E3.3 2*/,#+/91'+"33(- D$3=0,-: 3"%,3"53)5 *(16"' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258

!"#$%&'()$

E3.4 <?*(#/+(3,", /'=*)'/1'& , *"#$%&'(') .*/"='/+=*"9,'/+(3,- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

E3.5 P"=/'/*)" H;.,*,6"1=," ,11%"9/+(3,-, ./1+-8"33)" *(1.*"9"%"3,7 (=',+/+, */1'$ , ?"93/1', . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261

E5.1 S"A9$3(*/93)" /."*(0,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266E5.2 Q39"=1 D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1',, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3),

1997 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267E5.3 !(#+,+(78,"1- 1'*(3) ./ 1'"."3, 3"1'(?,%&3/1', 6(1'3)C

./'/=/+ =(.,'(%( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269E5.4 G+/93)" 1'(',1',6"1=," 9(33)" 9%- 3"=/'/*)C *(#+,')C ,

*(#+,+(78,C1- 1'*(3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271E5.5 G+-#& ;"A9$ D,3(31/+/5 /'=*)'/1'&7, 9";/=*(',"5 ,

1/0,(%&3);, *(1C/9(;, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272E6.1 2*/0"3' .*"9.*,-',5, ,1.)')+(78,C ./1%"91'+,- *(#3)C

D/*; «#(C+('(» :/1$9(*1'+(, , /?8,5 ,39"=1 «#(C+('(»:/1$9(*1'+(, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3), 1999 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280

>%'E&1()*<' ,"#1,6& " /1**<7& %+ .'5&+*$ L,.+%< &M'*#.1()*+A =8&& (LM=)!1.1 Q#;"3"3,- + *(#+,',, 6"%/+"6"1=/:/ ./'"30,(%( + *":,/3"

X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,, (XNE). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7!1.2 M"93/1'& + *":,/3" X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10!1.3 F(:*-#3"3," (';/1D"*3/:/ +/#9$C( + 3"=/'/*)C =*$.3)C

:/*/9(C *":,/3( X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13!1.4 >=/3/;,6"1=,5 */1' + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15!1.5 >=/3/;,6"1=,5 1.(9 + ."*"C/93)5 ."*,/9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16!1.6 G*(+3"3," '";./+ */1'( + 1'*(3(C X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19!1.7 P"*(+"31'+/ ./ 9/C/9$ + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22!1.8 !"#$%&'(') *(#+,',- + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26!1.9 I/1$9(*1'+"33)" *(1C/9) 3( /?*(#/+(3," + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30!2.1 G."0,(%&3)5 =(.,'(% , ,31','$') 3( ?(#" 1//?8"1'+

+ *":,/3" X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48!3.1 !"#$%&'(') /?*(#/+(3,- , 3"*(+"31'+/ + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72!3.2 P"*(+"31'+/ + /?*(#/+(3,, + 1'*(3(C X+*/.) ,

N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78!3.3 !":,/3 X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,: *(#*)+ ;"A9$ ./%(;, +

/?*(#/+(3,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

!"#$%&'()$

!3.4 !(1.*"9"%"3," :/1$9(*1'+"33)C *(1C/9/+./ *(#3); $*/+3-; /?*(#/+(3,- + /'9"%&3)C 1'*(3(CX+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

!4.1 <13/+3)" H=/%/:,6"1=," .*/?%";) + 3/+)C 3"#(+,1,;)C:/1$9(*1'+(C (PPI). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

!5.1 O,3(31/+)" 1,1'";) + 1'*(3(C 1 ."*"C/93/5H=/3/;,=/5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

0&"$*6& " /1**<7& %+ .'5&+*$ L,.+%< & M'*#.1()*+A =8&& (LM=)1.2E Q#;"3"3," + *(#+,',, 6"%/+"6"1=/:/ ./'"30,(%( , */1'

9/C/9(, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3) X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,,1990–1998 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.3E E?1/%7'3)" $*/+3, ?"93/1', + 1'*(3(C 1 ."*"C/93/5H=/3/;,=/5 + *":,/3" X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,(1995–1999 :/9)). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

1.6E G$;;(*3/" =/%,6"1'+/ +#+"B"33)C 6(1',0, ,#?*(33)" :/*/9(,*":,/3 X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1995 :/9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1.7E !/1' ./9$B"+/:/ @@2 1 ./.*(+=/5 3( .(*,'"' ./=$.('"%&3/51./1/?3/1',, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3) X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,,1975–1999. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

1.8E G*"93":/9/+)" '";.) */1'( ./9$B"+/:/ @@2 + 1'*(3(CX+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1990T" :/9).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1.9E P"*(+"31'+/ ./ 9/C/9$ +3$'*, 1'*(3, *":,/3 X+*/.) ,N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1987–1990 , 1996–1999 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

1.11E 2*/B%)" '"39"30,, :/1$9(*1'+"33)C *(1C/9/+3( /?*(#/+(3,", /'9"%&3)C 1'*(3) X+*/.) ,N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1980–1996 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

3.3E Q1'/*,6"1=(- '"39"30,- =/HDD,0,"3'( 4A,3,9%- /?*(#/+(3,-, 1'*(3) X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,,1960–1990 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

3.3@ F(6,1%"3," + 1*"9377 B=/%$ *":,/3 X+*/.) ,N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1980–1996 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

3.9E G*"93,5 *(#*)+ ;"A9$ ./%(;, + 3":*(;/'3/1', +#*/1%)C+/#*(1' — 15 %"' , 1'(*B", 1$?*":,/3) X+*/.) ,N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1970–1999 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

3E !(1.*"9"%"3," :/1$9(*1'+"33)C *(1C/9/+ ./ $*/+3-;/?*(#/+(3,-, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3) XNE, 1990 , 1996 :/9). . . . . . . . . 91

K12(&E< " /1**<7& %+ .'5&+*$ L,.+%< & M'*#.1()*+A =8&& (LM=)1.1E >=/3/;,6"1=,5 1.(9 + ."*"C/93)5 ."*,/9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161.2E !"#$%&'(') *(#+,',- 3( /13/+(3,, */1'( ./9$B"+/:/ @@2. . . . . 263.1E 2/=(#('"%, ./+'/*( , /'1"+( ,# 3(6(%&3/5 B=/%),

*":,/3 X+*/.) , N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1997:/9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

!"#$%&'()$

3.2E !(1.*"9"%"3," :/1$9(*1'+"33)C *(1C/9/+ ./ $*/+3-;/?*(#/+(3,-, /'9"%&3)" 1'*(3) + *":,/3" X+*/.) ,N"3'*(%&3/5 E#,,, 1990 , 1996 :/9). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

!"#$%&'()$

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A3'!9# "$/ 7#.&& ('/2!)&.1'#2 $!++2#)$&'// (/3'# / -)#4)#&=& — '&-)# )$&(#6'#&. B $!;(/(!<=/C+, +)$!'!C (;! /+9.<-&'/&2D/)!,) +&%#3', ( 7&3'#+)/ 6/(0) "#-)/ '! 100 2.' -&.#(&9 7#.1>&,-&2 3&+,)/.&)/& '!;!3. ?!;$*( 2&630 7&3'*2/ / 7#%!)*2/ $!+>/$,4&)+,. B# 2'#%/C +)$!'!C EFGH #70+.#(/. $&;9#& +#9$!=&'/& "$#3#.46/)&.1'#+)/ 6/;'/ —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3,13,25,3

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1996 <.

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199531997 <<.

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1995 <.

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1810,78

4,954,55

4,442,820,91

07,981,94

6,963,33

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Corsetti, Pesenti and Roubini, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Obstfeld, 1996; Radelet

and Sachs, 1998; # -#)?2 Sachs, Tornell and Velasco, 1996. J 3*!;!"#F "2C

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Bregman, Fuss, and Regev(1999). «Effect of CapitalSubsidization onProductivity in IsraeliIndustry»

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Moore (1999). «CorporateSubsidies in the FederalBudget»

De Moor and Calamani(1997) «SubsidizingUnsustainableDevelopment: underminingthe Earth with PublicFunds»

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Ram (1990)

O'Neil (1995)

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Deninger and Squire (1996)

Ravallion (1997)

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IDB (1998)

Lopez, Thomas and Wang (1998)

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9:+"6,3&: IMF (1998).

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;.%<)="-%) 3 1/3">"8)$?< ,?>6%</48% % -)48"#%$9-/48%48."-

F,!00#.#&!>#7 ;7)1#8%0*# %0/%1!/! /! /!"#= %>+/&!= /+0*!6#,-/%50*# 4!0*/2= (%*%&%1 &!(#*!,!, ($%1+:+//2= 0 (%8%<-3 0,+:;3<+9%;$!1/+/#7 ($%9/%)#$%1!/#7:

(B5.1) KF it = ! i + "iKF i(t 1 1) + uit

9:+ KF it — %6<#+ 4#0*2+ (%*%&# 4!0*/%9% &!(#*!,! :,7 0*$!/2 i 1 9%: t,uit — %0*!*%4/2' 4,+/.N+0*!6#,-/%0*- 1 0*$!/+ i %($+:+,7+*07 &!&

(B5.2)

9:+ S(uit) — %>+/&! 8+*%:%8 /!#8+/-"#= &1!:$!*%1 0*!/:!$*/%9% %*5&,%/+/#7 %0*!*&%1 1 ;$!1/+/## (B5.1) 0 #0(%,-)%1!/#+8 :!//2= 1$+8+/5/2= $7:%1 0 1975 (% 1996 9%:. I8. #/:+&0 1 *!6,#>+ B5.3.#GDP — L!,%1%' 1/;*$+//#' ($%:;&* (LLE).

;.%<)="-%) 1/ .">$%=%?< 6"$/6/:/ 6-,8.)--):/ 1./+,38"

E$#1+:+//2+ )/!4+/#7 $!),#4#' 1 (%*+/>#!,-/%8 LLE, A&0*$!(%,#$%51!//%8 /! %0/%1!/## ($+@/#= *+8(%1 $%0*! $+!,-/%' A&%/%8#&#(1980–1996 99.), # .!&*#4+0&%8 #,# $!04+*/%8 LLE 0 1997 (% 1999 9%:,10,+:0*1#+ A&%/%8#4+0&%9% &$#)#0! $!004#*21!3*07 &!& A&%/%8#4+05&#+ #):+$@&#. E$#1+:+//!7 >+//%0*- 62,! $!004#*!/! & )/!4+/#78 1996

/*2'+.,% "%+.*

F!*+9%$#7 «%*&$2*2+» (%:$!);8+1!+* %*0;*0*1#+ $+9;,#$%1!/#7 #,# 8#/#8!,-/%+ $+9;,#$%1!/#+A&0(%$*/%5#8(%$*/2= %(+$!>#' ($# %6<+8 %*0;*0*1## :#0&$#8#/!>##. F!*+9%$#7 «1 )/!4#*+,-/%'0*+(+/# %*&$2*2+» %)/!4!+*, 4*% ($#8+/73*07 /+&%*%$2+ %9$!/#4+/#7 /! A&0(%$*/%5#8(%$*/2+%(+$!>##, /+%6=%:#8% :%&;8+/*!,-/%+ %6%0/%1!/#+, /% /+ *$+6;+*07 9%0;:!$0*1+//%+ $!)$+"+/#+.F!*+9%$#7 «4!0*#4/% )!&$2*2+» (%:$!);8+1!+*, 4*% $+9;,#$%1!/#+ ($#0;*0*1;+*, ! :,7 0%1+$"+/#7A&0(%$*/%5#8(%$*/2= %(+$!>#' *$+6;+*07 9%0;:!$0*1+//%+ $!)$+"+/#+, &%*%$%+ %624/%($+:%0*!1,7+*07. F!*+9%$#7 «1 )/!4#*+,-/%' 0*+(+/# )!&$2*2+» %)/!4!+*, 4*% 0;<+0*1;3* )/!4#*+,-/2+%9$!/#4+/#7, ! :,7 0%1+$"+/#7 A&0(%$*/%5#8(%$*/2= %(+$!>#' *$+6;+*07 9%0;:!$0*1+//%+ $!)$+"+/#+,&%*%$%+ ($+:%0*!1,7+*07 $+:&%.

9:+"6,3&: ?>+/&# !1*%$!.

;.%<)="-%) 3 8"#$%&) '5.2.

S(uit)

GDPi, 1996Vi = #

9. 0 ($#8+/+/#+8 $+!,-/%' 0*!1&# :#0&%/*! 1 3 ($%>+/*! 1 9%:. S!04+*5/2+ #):+$@&# &$#)#0%1, 12$!@+//2+ &!& ($%>+/* %* :%,9%1%9% &$#)#0!1996 9., 0%0*!1#,# 81 ($%>+/* :,7 D!,!')##, 97 ($%>+/*%1 :,7 G/:%/+5)##, 128 ($%>+/*%1 :,7 M!#,!/:! # 291 ($%>+/* :,7 F%$+#. B/!,%9#4/2+$!04+*2 :,7 R$!)#,## :!3* %>+/&; 1 21 ($%>+/*. ?6$!*#*+ 1/#8!/#+,4*% :,7 F%$+# :!//2+ (% :%,9%1%8; &$#)#0; ($#1+:+/2 )! 1997 9.

;.%<)="-%) 1/ +6,=$)--/7 </+)$% Logit

C,7 %>+/&# 1%):+'0*1#7 /+)!1#0#82= (+$+8+//2= /! 1+$%7*/%0*- *%9%,4*% 0*$!/! (+$+':+* 1 &!*+9%$#3 «120%&!7 0*+(+/- $!)1#*#7 :+8%&$!5*##/ 120%&!7 0*+(+/- .#/!/0%1%' %*&$2*%0*#» #0(%,-);+*07 :1;4,+/5/!7 (6#/%8#!,-/!7) 8%:+,- logit. L :!//%' 8%:+,# )!1#0#8!7 (+$+8+/5/!7 %($+:+,7+*07 :#=%*%8#4/%' 0,;4!'/%' (+$+8+//%' !, &%*%$!7 ($#5/#8!+* )/!4+/#+ 1, +0,# 0*$!/! i ($#/!:,+@#* & &!*+9%$## «120%&!7 0*+5(+/- $!)1#*#7 :+8%&$!*##/ 120%&!7 0*+(+/- .#/!/0%1%' %*&$2*%0*#»; 1($%*#1/%8 0,;4!+ %/! ($#/#8!+* )/!4+/#+ 0. K*% )!:!+*07 0,+:;3<#8:

!i = pi + ei ,

9:+ p — 1+$%7*/%0*- *%9%, 4*% :!//!7 0*$!/! ($#/!:,+@#* & &!*+9%$##«120%&!7 0*+(+/- $!)1#*#7 :+8%&$!*##/ 120%&!7 0*+(+/- .#/!/0%1%'%*&$2*%0*#», # %($+:+,7+*07 &!& p = F(a ´x), 9:+ ! — 1+&*%$ /+)!1#0#82=(+$+8+//2=, a — 0%%*1+*0*1;3<#' 1+&*%$ &%A..#>#+/*%1, F(a ´x) —

)#(*(+%,*- %./"0.%+.1

<-:"&($,0:+(A3)>,":+> B0:+(A3)>,":+>

CD0#0,,($,0:+(A3)>,":+>

B(3D0,>E($,0:+(A3)>,":+>

@+#(,( 9,%0&: @+#(,( 9,%0&: @+#(,( 9,%0&: @+#(,( 9,%0&:

W8!'&! 3,23O!6%/ 2,93N#9+$#7 2,07L+/+0;A,!,R%,#1!$#!/0&!7 S+0(;6,#&! 2,04D!,!')#7 1,97G%$:!/#7 1,82E!/!8! 1,79F!8+$;/ 1,60H!86#7 1,59H#86!61+ 1,59

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D+&0#&! 1,54K&1!:%$ 1,50F+/#7 1,49N#&!$!9;! 1,48R%,#1#7 1,44X#,# 1,38K.#%(#7 1,31Q#,#((#/2 1,27O%/:;$!0 1,04M!#,!/: 1,01

!"#$%&" '5.3 @">6%6"AB%)4? 48."-0 1/ 48)1)-% -)48"#%$9-/48% ="48-0C1/8/3/6 3"1%8"$"

9:+"6,3&: L0+8#$/2' 6!/& (19990); $!04+*2 !1*%$%1.

&;8;,7*#1/!7 .;/&>#7 $!0($+:+,+/#7 # ei — %0*!*%4/2' 4,+/, &%*%$2',(% :%(;<+/#3, 0,+:;+* $!0($+:+,+/#3 R+$/;,,#.L2$!)#1 1+$%7*/%0*- :,7 i59% /!6,3:+/#7 4+$+) 8%:+,- logit, (%,;4#8

C!,-/+'"++ ($+%6$!)%1!/#+ logit :!+*:

L A*%' 9,!1+ 82 #0(%,-);+8 %6[70/73<#+ (+$+8+//2+, %($+:+,+//2+&!&:

• Log 0;882 0%>#!,-/2= $!0=%:%1 &!& ($%>+/*! LLE (0$+:/++ )/!54+/#+ )! 1990–1996 99.) (.1).

• Log LLE /! :;"; /!0+,+/#7, 1 *+&;<#= :%,,!$!= IUB (0$+:/++)/!4+/#+ )! 1990–1996 99.) (.2).

K*! :1;4,+//!7 8%:+,- 62,! $!004#*!/! (% 8+*%:#&+ 8!&0#8!,-/%'1+$%7*/%0*# 0 ($#8+/+/#+8 :!//2= #) 126%$&#, 1&,34!3<+' 670*$!/, (% &%*%$28 #8+,#0- (%0,+:%1!*+,-/2+ :!//2+ (% ;&!)!//28:1;8 %6[70/73<#8 (+$+8+//28. E$# $!04+*+ 8!&0#8!,-/!7 1+$%7*5/%0*- 62,! (%,;4+/! 0 #0(%,-)%1!/#+8 !,9%$#*8! N-3*%/!5SA.0%/!, 1&%*%$%8 ($#8+/7+*07 ($%>+:;$! logit STATA. S+);,-*!*2 62,# (%,;4+5/2 (%0,+ (7*# #*+$!>#'. ?/# ($+:0*!1,+/2 1 *+&0*+ 1 *!6,#>+ 5.3. I%59,!0/% (%,;4+//28 $+);,-*!*!8, &!& (%:;"+1%' :%=%:, *!& # :%,7 0%>#5!,-/2= $!0=%:%1 1 LLE #8+3* 0*!*#0*#4+0&# )/!4#82' A..+&* ($#%6[70/+/## 1+$%7*/%0*# (+$+8+<+/#7 0*$!/2 1 &!*+9%$#3 «120%&!70*+(+/- $!)1#*#7 :+8%&$!*##/ 120%&!7 0*+(+/- .#/!/0%1%' %*&$2*%50*#». D%:+,- *!&@+ ;:!4/% $!6%*!+* :,7 ($%9/%)#$%1!/#7 ($%>+/*!0*$!/, &%*%$2+ 62,# 1+$/% &,!00#.#>#$%1!/2 &!& ($#/!:,+@!<#+ &&!*+9%$## «120%&!7 0*+(+/- $!)1#*#7 :+8%&$!*##/ 120%&!7 0*+(+/-.#/!/0%1%' %*&$2*%0*#», — *. +. #) 27 0*$!/, %*/+0+//2= & A*%' &!*+59%$##, 1 %*/%"+/## 19 0*$!/ 62, :!/ 1+$/2' ($%9/%) (/! %0/%1!/##(%$%9%1%' 1+$%7*/%0*# 0,5); *!&#8 %6$!)%8, &,!00#.#&!>#7 1+$/! /!70,37 ($%>+/*!.

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L :!//%' 9,!1+ ($#1+:+/2 /+0&%,-&% 0,;4!+1 0*!*#0*#4+0&%9% !/!,#)!.L *!6,#>+ 5.4 (%&!)!/2 01%:/2+ 0*!*#0*#4+0&#+ :!//2+ :,7 %0/%1/2=

/*2'+.,% "%+.*

exp(a ´xi)1 + exp(a ´xi)

F(a ´xi) =

1 5 pilog = a ´xi

(+$+8+//2= # #= #0*%4/#&#. I17)# 8+@:; A*#8# (+$+8+//28# $!0508!*$#1!3*07 /! $#0;/&+ B5.1 # 1 *!6,#>+ B5.5.

;.%<)="-%?

1. C,7 /+&%*%$2= 0*$!/, 9:+ %*0;*0*1%1!,# :!//2+ (% %($+:+,+/5/28 *#(!8 %(+$!>#', #0(%,-)%1!,#0- 0$+:/#+ )/!4+/#7 «1».

)#(*(+%,*- %./"0.%+.1

@#0%,00=,(60,30

@+(,%(#+,"0"+&)",0,30 F3,3DGD F(&:3DGD ?3:)" :+#(,!0#0D0,,-0

3,423,09

15,3938,21

3,0917,8270,60

5 803,00

2,181,73

3,626,483,09

11,7745,90

8 645,00

1,001,00

8,5021,500,001

3,3515,2191,59

7,007,00

22,0048,5013,8449,11

378,6737 198,00

123138

97996851

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