Кризис в Венесуэле. Константин Стырин

Âåíåñóýëà

Êîíñòàíòèí Ñòûðèí (ÐÝØ)

9 äåêàáðÿ 2015 ã.

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Leonardo Vera, �Venezuela 1999-2014: Macro-Policy, Oil

Governance and Economic Performance,� Comparative Economic

Studies, vol. 57, 2015, pp. 539-568

Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco Rodriguez (eds.), Venezuela

before Chavez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse, The

Pennsylvania State University Press, University Park, 2014

Carmen M. Reinhart and Miguel Angel Santos, �From Financial

Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela,� NBER

Working Paper 21333, July 2015

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Âåíåñóýëà: ôàêòû

• Îäíà èç ñòðàí-îñíîâàòåëüíèö ÎÏÅÊ; íà ìîìåíò ñîçäàíèÿ

ÎÏÅÊ òðåòèé (ïîñëå ÑØÀ è ÑÑÑÐ) ïî îáúåìó äîáû÷è

ìèðîâîé ïðîèçâîäèòåëü íåôòè.

• Â 1960-1970-å ãã. ñàìàÿ áîãàòàÿ ñòðàíà â Ëàòèíñêîé

Àìåðèêå; ïî ïîäóøåâîìó äîõîäó ïðåâîñõîäèëà íåêîòîðûå

åâðîïåéñêèå ñòðàíû (Èñïàíèÿ).

• �Îáðàçöîâàÿ� ðàçâèâàþùàÿñÿ ýêîíîìèêà.

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Âåíåñóýëà: òåêóùåå ñîñòîÿíèå ýêîíîìèêè

• Íåôòü � 50% ÂÂÏ è 95% ýêñïîðòà.

• Èíôëÿöèÿ 150%

• Ãëóáîêàÿ ðåöåññèÿ: ðîñò ÂÂÏ -3%

• Doing Business: 186 èç 190

• Çàùèòà ïðàâ ñîáñòâåííîñòè: 5 èç 100; �ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ

ñâîáîäà�: 176 èç 178 (Heritage Foundation)

• �Ñàìûé ðèñêîâàííûé èç âñåõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ�

• Õðîíè÷åñêîå áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà

• Äåôèöèò ìíîãèõ òîâàðîâ ïåðâîé íåîáõîäèìîñòè

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Ïóñòûå ïîëêè â ìàãàçèíàõ, 2014 ã.

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Âåíåñóýëà è Ëàòèíñêàÿ Àìåðèêà 1/2

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Âåíåñóýëà è Ëàòèíñêàÿ Àìåðèêà 2/2

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Âûðó÷êà îò ïðîäàæè íåôòè

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ÂÂÏ

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Èíôëÿöèÿ

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Òó÷íûå íóëåâûå

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Äîëÿ íàñåëåíèÿ çà ÷åðòîé áåäíîñòè

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Öåíà íà íåôòü è ñòðàíîâîé ðèñê

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Âàëþòíûå èíòåðâåíöèè

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Ãîñðàñõîäû

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Ðåàëüíûé îáìåííûé êóðñ

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Íîìèíàëüíûé îáìåííûé êóðñ

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Ïðîöåíòíàÿ ñòàâêà

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Äåíåæíàÿ ìàññà

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Âàëþòíàÿ âûðó÷êà

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Îò÷èñëåíèÿ íà �ðàñõîäû ïî óñìîòðåíèþ�

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Çîëîòîâàëþòíûå ðåçåðâû

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 1/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 2/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 3/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 4/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 5/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 6/7

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Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 7/7

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Íàäåæäà íà ïåðåìåíû ê ëó÷øåìó?

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