氣候變化 燃眉之急 - 香港地質學會geolsoc.org.hk/members_article/sham fu...
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vs
-
-
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1981-2010
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1 (CO2 )
/
2 (CH4)
3 (N2O)
(c) Ian Britton - FreeFoto.com (c) Ian Britton - FreeFoto.com
http://www.pbase.com/caveman_lee/teanautuataperehttp://www.pbase.com/caveman_lee/teanautuatapere
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= -18 oC
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Atmospheric greenhouse gases act like a blanket keeping the earth surface warm.
14-15
-
2013
CO2 396 ppm +42%
CH4 1824 ppb +153%
N2O 326 ppb +21%
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Source: WMO, http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/documents/400ppm.final.pdf
80
801750-2011CO240%30%
-
?
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188020120.85C
1850
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1980 2012
Source: NASA
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301450
1-3
4-6
10-12
7-9
1979-2012
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- (Muir Glacier, Alaska's Glacier Bay)
1941813 2004831
1941 2004800
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:
:
2003-2012
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19
:1. 2.
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source: Climate Commission, Australia
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?
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2011 2012721boston.com bloomberg.com
20127
matome.naver.jp
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Source : Bureau of Meteorology
2012/2013
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2013
Source: Telegraph, UK Source: Associated Press
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2014
:
-
?
-
?
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1991
: US Geological Survey
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2020
50
20
(: IPCC, 2007)
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Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
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!
2046128
-
(RCPs) 4 :
RCP2.6 (), RCP4.5 () RCP6.0 (), RCP8.5 ()
? ()
RCP2.6
RCP 8.5
-
214 oC
2oC
-
,4
-
2045-2065 2081-2100
RCP2.6 0.17 - 0.32 0.26 - 0.55
RCP4.5 0.19 - 0.33 0.32 - 0.63
RCP6.0 0.18 - 0.32 0.33 - 0.63
RCP8.5 0.22 - 0.38 0.45 - 0.82
?
-
, 2081-2100
, 2081-2100
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1883
1884
1908
1913
-
(1885-2014)
100 1.2 oC
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+
-
(10-5)
: 19.1 oC (1981-201025)
-
(4-10)
: 27.7 oC (1981-201025)
-
2014
Rank
Mean Temperature of June
Year
1 29.0 oC 2014
2 28.9 oC 1999
3 28.8 oC 2002
3 28.8 oC 1996
Rank
Mean Temperature of July
Year
1 29.8 oC 2014
2 29.7 oC 1967
3 29.6 oC 2007
3 29.6 oC 2003
Rank
Mean Temperature of
September
Year
1 29.0 oC 2014
1 29.0 oC 2008
1 29.0 oC 1969
4 28.9 oC 1992
Rank
Mean Temperature of
June to August
Year
1 29.3 oC 2014
2 29.0 oC 2011
2 29.0 oC 1983
4 28.9 oC 2009
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2015
-
1900
2000
4oC 6 163
35oC 32 4.5
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25
2091-2100 1986-2005 23.3 3 6
-
(1885-2014)
1997 (3343)
1963 (901)
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1900 2000
100mm
37 18
150mm
32 14
200mm
41 21
-
(18852014)
-
200867
(Source : GEO, CEDD)
145.5 - 307.1 -
200867
(: WiNG)
(1.8)(Source : GEO, CEDD)
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211986-2005180
-
...
- 1289; - 3168
1885 - 2005 2 3
2006 - 2100 2 12
()()
-
1980-1999
2090-2099
( 1) 104 77
( 100) 3.5 5.3
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/ (1954-2014)
-
(1947)
/
()
() ()
() ()
() ()
()
1 1962 3.96 1.77 5.03 3.2
2 1954 3.18 1.68 - -
3 1949 2.90 1.49 - -
3 1964 3.14 1.49 3.54 2.96
5 1979 2.78 1.45 4.33 3.23
6 2008 3.53 1.43 3.77 1.77
()
() ()
() ()
() ()
()
1906 3.35 1.83 - 6.10 (?)
1937 4.05 1.98 6.25 3.81
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1962
-
Source: ISD
-
2081-2100 1986-2005 0.63 1.07
-
21 1.07
0.146
()
#()
(2046-2065)
0.53
(2081-2100)
1.07
1 2.7 3.2 3.8
2 2.9 3.4 4.0
5 3.1 3.6 4.2
10 3.3 3.8 4.4
20 3.4 3.9 4.5
50 3.5 4.0 4.6
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(WMO)
(IPCC)
(UNEP)
1990 (UNFCCC)
(Kyoto Protocol)
1995
2001
2007
2013/14
-
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
WMOUNEP1988
1990199520012007
(WGI)(AR5)20139
2014 11
-
?
-
2008
:?
-
11kWh 11kW
= 10001 (kilo-Watt-hour, kWh)
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