산업경영공학과 imen 315 인간공학 7. decision making definition of decision making qa...
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산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
7. Decision Making
DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING a decision-making task
(a) number of alternatives (b) information available to the option(c) timeframe relatively long(d) uncertainty
three phases for decision making1) acquiring and perceiving info or cues for the decision2) generating and selecting hypotheses or situation assessments3) planning and selecting choices
DECISION-MAKING MODELS normative model (rational model) – mathematical models; specify what
people ideally should do; not how people actually perform DM tasks descriptive models – cognitive processes associated with DM behavior
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
Normative Decision Models revolve around the central concept of utility, the overall value of a choice multiattribute utility theory
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
expected value theory – uncertainty; replaces the concept of utility with expected value; relatively limited because many choices in life have different values
to different people subjective expected utility (SEU) theory
Descriptive Decision Models people often rely on simplified shortcuts or rules-of-thumb (heuristics) satisfying (Simon, 1957) – not absolute best or optimal decision but good
enough or satisfactory decision the amount of info exceeds cognitive processing limitations and time is
limited – using simplifying heuristics
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
HEURISTICS AND BIASES usually very powerful and efficient but not guarantee the best solution occasionally lead to systematic flaws and errors – biases
Information Processing Limits in Decision Making
what happens in WM?1. cue reception and
integration2. hypothesis generation
and selection3. plan generation and
action choice
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
Heuristics and Biases in Receiving and Using Cues1. attention to a limited number of cues2. cue primacy and anchoring – first impressions are lasting3. inattention to later cues4. cue salience5. overweighting of unreliable cues
Heuristics and Biases in Hypothesis Generation, Evaluation and Selection6. generation of a limited number of hypotheses7. availability heuristic – frequency, recency8. representativeness heuristic9. overconfidence10. cognitive tunneling11. confirmation bias
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
Heuristics and Biases in Action Selection1. retrieve a small number of actions2. availability heuristic for actions – recency, frequency, strong association3. availability of possible outcomes -- hindsight bias4. framing bias
choose between a certain loss of $50 and an equal chance of losing $100 or breaking even risky option
choose between a certain gain of $50 and an equal chance of mak-ing nothing or $100 conservative option
sunk cost bias – tendency to choose the risky loss over the sure one
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
DEPENDENCY OF DECISION MAKING ON THE DECISION CONTEXT
Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-Based Behavior
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
Recognition-Primed Decision Making experts simply recognize a pattern of cues and recall a single course of
action, which is then implemented representativeness heuristic, rule-based behavior 3 critical assumptions of the RPD model
1. experience to generate a plausible option2. time pressure not critical because of rapid pattern matching3. know how to respond from past experience
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
FACTORS AFFECTING DM PERFORMANCE: ANINTEGRATED DESCRIPTION OF DECISION MAKING
Mental simulation
Poor learningInaccurate mental models
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
IMPROVING HUMAN DECISION MAKINGTask RedesignDecision-Support Systems cognitive prosthesis – person in a subservient role to the computer –
good for anticipated conditions cognitive tools – support rather than replace the decision makerDecision Matrices and Trees cognitive process of weighting alternative actions – normative multiat-
tribute utility theorySpreadsheets one of the most common decision-support tools – large number of errors
contained in spreadsheets (24% to 91%)Simulation not always enhance decision quality but increase confidence simulations are incomplete and can be inaccurate
산업경영공학과
IMEN 315 인간공학
Expert Systems cognitive prostheses – most effective with routine and well-defined situa-
tions cognitive tools – provide feedback to the dicision maker to improve DMDisplays reduce the cognitive load of info seeking and integration configural displays
Training improving analytical DM – train to overcome heuristics/biases normative
utility methods for DM training to do a better job at metacognition development of mental models and management of uncertainty and time
pressure at the rule-based level, enhance perceptual and pattern-recognition skills at the automatic level, focus on relevant cues in raw data form
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