0850 internationalcommodityoutlook darylguppyacbc (2) english

MARKET OUTLOOK International Futures Markets

China, Australia Daryl Guppy

www.guppytraders.com Author of

Share Trading, Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, Guppy Trading, 趋势交易大师，图表与交易, 股市投资36计, 市场交易策略

Strategic change 1. Change in global

balance 2. Decline of US moral

leadership

Problems

1. US debt 2. EuroZone debt 3. Trade wars

f

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

1.Postponing problems in Europe. 2.Yet to happen in the US

k

ASSET ADJUSTMENT

Challenge is aligning asset values and fiscal values

q

ASSET REVALUATION

SOVEREIGN DEBT

1. Reduced returns on loans 2. Problems spread in Europe 3. Sovereign debt

n

NOT WORTH THE PAPER

OPPORTUNITIES 1. China growth 2. Domestic demand 3. Rising wages, 4. Rising consumption 5. Government infrastructure 6. New industrial minerals 7. Cheaper resource assets as commodity price

falls

z

MARKET CHANGES 1. HFT 2. ETF 3. ETCF 4. Dark pools 5. Commodity pricing transparency

w

INSTITUTIONAL INDEX SPECULATION

TREND ANALYSIS

1. Increased volatility and long term up trends

2. Separation of demand and supply from price trending activity -investment speculation

3. Effective price discovery 4. Diversity of metal trends 5. Manage the developments of price in the

future w

DOW

Shanghai Index

Australia index

Australia China

Australia US

US dollar Index

OIL

COPPER

GOLD

COAL PRICE

ZINC

NICKEL

METAL MARKETS

1. International metal markets have many different characteristics

2. Trend behaviour includes psychological behaviour and supply and demand features

3. Better price discovery in multiple time zone markets will reduce volatility

4. Manage the future by understanding trend behaviour

• Daryl Guppy is not a licensed investment advisor. This seminar is presented on behalf of Guppytraders.com Pty Ltd, Australia, (ACN 089 941560), Guppytraderscomsg Pte Ltd, Singapore (200409379K) and Guppytraderscn Rep. Office, China (22219560). This seminar is an educational tool designed to assist you in your personal judgment. This seminar is based on my experience of applying technical analysis to the market and is designed to be used as a tutorial showing how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on historical sample trading data. This seminar is a tool to assist you in your personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant or your Stockbroker. The seminar has been prepared without regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because course attendees come from diverse backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. All material is

• copyright.

DISCLAIMER