1. assess role of facilitating events as “structural” factors. 2. sum up overall importance of...

1. Assess role of facilitating events as “structural” factors.

2. Sum up overall importance of structural factors.

3. Become familiar with actors in transition and typical relations among them.

4. Understand model of cycle of mobilization.

1. Economic crisis2. Losing a major military

conflict

Performance as source of legitimacy for recent authoritarian regimes.

Legitimacy to particular government rather than procedures of regime.

Democratic regimes: legitimacy of regime rules and procedures as well as current government.

Economic Crisis› E.g. oil crises 1973-4 and 1979

Oil-importing countries suffered. Argentina, Greece.

Loss of Major Military Conflict› Argentina (Falklands-Malvinas)› Greece (Cyprus)› Portugal (colonial wars)› USSR (Afghanistan)

aka “Transitology”

??

Actions much less determined by structural factors during transition.

Sense of freedom, loss of fear.

Democratization may work better if liberalization precedes democratization (Huntington).› E.g. South Africa.

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Reformers Standpatters

Radical Extremists Moderates

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Hard-liners (standpatters) in government:› Hard-line apartheid supporters in white

minority government. Soft-liners (reformers) in government:

› E.g. F.W. de Klerk – if no reform, regime unsustainable.

Moderates in opposition:› Mandela in ANC – limit demands to political

procedural democracy, not economic. Radicals in opposition:

› Demand socioeconomic equality or African-run regime.

› Willing to use violence.

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

Government

Opposition

Pro-democracyRadical Anti-democracy Conservative Anti-democracy

Soft-liners Hard-liners

Radicals Moderates

If hardliners very strong, democratization can’t occur.

If soft-liners and opposition moderates both strong, democratization likely.

If radicals very strong, either radical outcome or hard-liner backlash occurs.

Initial Liberalization

“Resurrection of Civil Society”- protests, disorder, demands

Demobilization of Civil Society

Soft-liners believe they can keep control of transition

Hard-liners’ fears of disorder seem confirmed; their allies increase – fear of coup

As fear of coup increases, opposition becomes more vocal

People become tired and run out of resources; Soft-liners and moderates have become majority; negotiating over details rather than regime type