1 owner-occupied housing summary of the pilot item 5 of the agenda d4 – price statistics hicp...
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Owner-Occupied HousingSummary of the pilot
Item 5 of the Agenda
D4 – Price StatisticsHICP Working GroupLuxembourg 23-24 October 2007
OOH 2
Summary of the pilot1. Manual
2. Data
3. Evaluation
4. Stage 3 of the pilot
5. Legal basis
OOH 3
MANUAL Technical Manual on OOH
– Focus on “how to technically compile the index”
– Build the manual around COICOP OOH and Net Acquisition
– More coherence with HICP principles
Version 1.4: well developed, can be used by MSs in the final phase
Handbook on Real Estate Price Indices– Describe the methods and sources currently employed
– An inventory of national practises
– Identification of different uses of HPIs and definition of their target indices
OOH 4
DATA Within the pilot following price index series were to be
produced:– All dwellings index
• New dwellings index• Existing dwellings index
– Additional acquisition cost index– HICP including OOH index– Building land price index (by DE and SI only)– Additionally, UK and NL provided construction cost indices
combined with necessary weighting information enabling Eurostat to calculate EU aggregates
OOH 5
Series available to Eurostat
CY DE EL ES FI FR IT NL PL SI SK UK
1 All dwellings * *
2 New dwellings
3 Existing dwellings **
4 Acquisition costs
5 HICP inclusive OOH
* can be derived, ** delivered upon request
OOH 6
50
100
150
200
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
All dwellings New dwellings Acquisition costs Major repairs (construction cost index) HICP
Graph 1: UK series
OOH 7
50
100
150
200
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
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Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
All dwellings New dwellings Existing dwellings HICP
Graph 2: FI series
OOH 8
95
100
105
110
115
2000
Q1
2000
Q2
2000
Q3
2000
Q4
2001
Q1
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2002
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2003
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
All dwellings New dwellings New w/o land Old dwellings Aqcuisition costs Land HICP_OOH HICP
Graph 3: DE series
OOH 9
50
100
150
200
1995
Q1
1995
Q3
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
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Q1
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Q1
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2003
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2003
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2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
All dwellings New dwellings New w/o land Old dwellings Construction prices HICP
Graph 4: NL series
OOH 10
50
100
150
200
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
UK FI NL NL_no_L DE DE_no_L
Graph 5: New dwellings – UK, FI, NL, DE
OOH 11
50
100
150
200
1996
Q1
1996
Q3
1997
Q1
1997
Q3
1998
Q1
1998
Q3
1999
Q1
1999
Q3
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
FR UK FI NL DE
Graph 6: Old dwellings - FR, UK, FI, NL, DE
OOH 12
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1
CY EL PL SK
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1
CY EL PL SI SK
Old dwellings – CY, EL, PL, SI, SK
New dwellings – CY, EL, PL, SK
OOH 13
Data - conclusions Result of the pilot is positive – the data gives good basis
for analysis of the net acquisition approach in general Data gaps exists – as reported beforehand
– Not all series delivered– Short series in some cases– Additional acquisition costs needs sharpening– More effort needed in the fields of land prices and major
repairs Need for continued efforts -> pilot stage 3 participation
Eurostat will produce aggregate experimental series by the end of 2007
OOH 14
Evaluation Eurostat’s evaluation underway Based on the final reports and the OOH questionnaire Eurostat will continue with the evaluation as follows:
– Evaluation at Eurostat – finished after one week– Countries' check of the evaluation – 10 working days– SG comments – 5 working days– Synthesis by Eurostat – 5 working days
A meeting with the pilot countries to discuss the evaluation results and the manual (Proposal: end November – early December)
OOH 15
Stage 3 of the pilot – final phaseAIM Widest possible coverage so that every EU MS would have tested
the concept in practise and would be ready for a regular provision of data in end-2009
TOOLS Methodology
– Manual– Treatment of land; econometric study on separation of the land price
component from the total dwellings price Grants
– common programme, know-how sharing, support Implementing regulation?
OOH 16
Stage 3 of the pilot – final phaseGRANTS: 3A: CY, DE, EL, ES, FI, NL, SI, SK, (FR, IT, PL, UK) (8/12)
– Final evaluation of the applications; on Thursday– Agreements signed; mid-November
3B: AT, BE, IE, LU, PT (5); – Call for proposals out; end-October– Applications in; end-November– Agreements signed; before end-December
3C: BG, CZ, DK, EE, HU, LT, LV, MT, RO, SE (10)– Call for proposals out; early 2008
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