2013 short sale trends

2013 SHORT SALE TRENDS

With Practical Steps to Finding Short Sale Listings

What we’ll cover today

• What is RealtyTrac?

• Where & Why Foreclosure Starts are Surging

– Bonus: Best Short Sale Markets

• How Short Sales Are Moving Further Upstream

– Bonus: listed and unlisted foreclosure inventory

– Bonus: zombie foreclosures

• Practical Steps to Finding Short Sale Listings

• Practical resources©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 2

A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO REALTYTRAC

• RealtyTrac publishes the country’s largest database of foreclosure and bank-owned properties– Data from over 2,200 counties, covering over

92% of U.S. housing units

• #1 Foreclosure site – 1.5 million foreclosure and bank-owned properties nationwide– More coverage, more detailed information than

any other national provider

• Unmatched property evaluation and transactional tools– HomeScore, Equity & Loan Info, Comp Sales,

Online Offers, Foreclosure-MLS Match, and much more

WHAT REALTYTRAC IS

©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 4

• The RealtyTrac foreclosure database is not an “MLS for foreclosure records”

• Most of the properties in the RealtyTrac database are NOT on the MLS anywhere

– Less than 20% of the homes in foreclosure are listed

– Only 15% of REOs are listed

– Many MLS organizations prohibit including any REO or foreclosure information in the property listings

– RealtyTrac gives you advanced notice that it will likely be ‘For Sale’ in the near future.

WHAT REALTYTRAC IS NOT

WHO RELIES ON REALTYTRAC DATA

WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS SURGING

The Big Picture

NATIONAL TRENDS

More than 10 million starts and nearly 5

million completions (REO) since January

More than 10 million starts and nearly 5

million completions (REO) since January

NATIONAL TRENDS

6 Percent Bump in Q2 2012 corresponding

with National Mortgage Settlement

6 Percent Bump in Q2 2012 corresponding

with National Mortgage SettlementRobo-signing controversy came

to light in late 2010, accelerating downward trend

Robo-signing controversy came to light in late 2010,

accelerating downward trend

STATES WITH BIG INCREASES

METROS WITH INCREASES

BOOMERANG FORECLOSURE STARTS

SECOND BOOMERANG IN CALIFORNIA?

WHY THE INCREASE

• Many states coming off artificial lows from last year thanks to foreclosure processing delays.

• Those delays were caused by a variety of issues that impacted some states more than others• Fallout from robo-signing (paperwork and

documentation)• Intervention by the courts• Lack of court resources to handle foreclosure

volume• Attorneys general investigation into five major

lenders, with a settlement finally reached in April• Wave of recent legislation in non-judicial states

Longer Foreclosure Timelines

Texas is shortest in

country

Texas is shortest in

country

N.Y. timeline

longest in country

N.Y. timeline

longest in country

A Tale of Two Foreclosure Markets

IMPLICATIONS

• Home prices in some of these markets may break through a false bottom as these foreclosures are listed and sold in 2013.

• More properties foreclosed (REO) in the next six to 12 months and more REO listed for sale in the next 12 to 18 months.

• More distressed homeowners interested in listing their homes as short sales in the next six to 12 months in these markets.

PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES ACTIVITY

Increased 19 percent in Q3 2012 to highest level since Q2 2010

PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES PRICES

Average prices increase on annual

basis after 8 consecutive quarters

of decreases

Average prices increase on annual

basis after 8 consecutive quarters

of decreases

OUTNUMBERING REO SALES

Both hardest-hit sates like California, Florida

and Arizona

Both hardest-hit sates like California, Florida

and Arizona

And states with longest foreclosure

processes like NY & NJ

And states with longest foreclosure

processes like NY & NJ

OUTNUMBERING REO SALES

THE BIGGEST SHORTS

Banks are more willing to take big losses with

a short sale

Banks are more willing to take big losses with

a short sale

BEST MARKETS FOR SHORT SALES

All markets had at least 200 short sales in

fourth quarter and average time from

foreclosure start to sale of less than one year.

All markets had at least 200 short sales in

fourth quarter and average time from

foreclosure start to sale of less than one year.

SHORT SALES MOVING FURTHER UPSTREAM

2012 U.S. RESIDENTIAL SALES

STATE TRENDS

26 states posted annual increases in non-

foreclosure short sales in 2012

26 states posted annual increases in non-

foreclosure short sales in 2012

METRO TRENDS

Legislation forcing lenders’ hands in

metros like Las Vegas, Seattle and Portland

Legislation forcing lenders’ hands in

metros like Las Vegas, Seattle and Portland

POTENTIAL POOL OF SHORT SALES

BUT A SHRINKING POOL

Nationwide 1.6 million fewer underwater than

a year ago

Nationwide 1.6 million fewer underwater than

a year ago

LISTED PRE-FORECLOSURES DOWN

With some notable exceptions mostly in

judicial states

With some notable exceptions mostly in

judicial states

MORE INVENTORY IN PIPELINE

MORE POTENTIAL SHORT SALES?

FINDING SHORT SALE LISTINGS

KNOW YOUR LOCAL MARKET TRENDS

TARGET POTENTIAL SHORT SALES

Filter by property value and

characteristics

Filter by property value and

characteristics

Filter by property type

Filter by equity/LTVFilter by equity/LTV

Filter by lender name and auction date

Filter by listing status and bankruptcy statusFilter by listing status and bankruptcy status

TARGET POTENTIAL SHORT SALES

FILTER OUT REO AND FOR SALE

SELECT PROPERTY TO VIEW DETAILS

See Foreclosure Details

LTV and EquityLTV and Equity

Outstanding loans and position

Owner contact info (including current

mailing address) and trustee and lender info

Owner contact info (including current

mailing address) and trustee and lender info

DOWNLOAD PROPERTY INFO

DOWNLOAD IN BULK WITH MEGA

REALTYTRAC RESOURCES

• Local Stats & Trends (free and embeddable)• http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/

• Real Estate News & Reports (free)• http://www.realtytrac.com/content

• Professional subscription (address-level access)• http://www.realtytrac.com/professionals

• Buyer leads (exclusive territories)• Call 800.306.5930

2013 short sale trends

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