2016 gmekong forum - session 02 - inclusive development paths red river

MK27: ≅ Edit 29 … MK27: Inclusive development paths for healthy Red River landscapes based on ecosystem services

FROM SERIOUS TO PLAYFUL - METHODS FOR ADAPTIVE PLANNING & STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEKONG

Session outline

u Introduction MK27 Martine Rutten (Delft University of Technology)

u Meet Nam Cuong Luong Van Thanh (community) & Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

u Scenarios: from projecting to envisioning the future Nick van de Giesen (Delft University of Technology)

u Experiences in Nam Cuong Luong Van Thanh (community), Do Xuan Hoan & Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

u Discussion

What is needed to make/maintain the Red River healthy?

Pathway development

Monitoring techniques

Support tools

? Scenario ? ! Strategy !

Pathway development

Monitoring techniques

Support tools

Ecosystem service Unit Baseline A2 F1 F21 Total runoff km3 52.8 58.1 51.9 57.2

2 Environmental flow km3 28.4 31.2 27.9 30.73 Dry season flow m3/s 151.7 186.7 146.5 104.14 Peak flow attenuation m3/s 8989.8 9589.1 8935.4 9666.65 Microclimate cooling °C 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.66 Enhanced atmospheric moisture recycling km3 11.3 10.1 11.6 11.87 (Reduction of) erosion and sedimentation kg 1.0E+10 1.1E+10 1.1E+10 1.2E+108 Groundwater recharge km3 3.4 4.1 3.2 3.69 Natural livestock feed production tonnes 1.2E+08 1.2E+08 1.1E+08 1.3E+08

10 Fuelwood from natural forests tonnes 2.1E+07 2.0E+07 2.1E+07 2.2E+0711 Carbon sequestration tonnes 5.64E+07 5.53E+07 5.53E+07 5.79E+07

Pathway development

? Scenario ? ! Strategy !

How to bring this thinking to the local level in Vietnam?

Session outline

u Meet Nam Cuong Luong Van Thanh (community) & Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

u Scenarios: from projecting to envisioning the future Nick van de Giesen (Delft University of Technology)

u Experiences in Nam Cuong Luong Van Thanh (community), Do Xuan Hoan & Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

u Discussion

Meet Nam Cuong Challenges of a Red River community Luong Van Thanh (community)& Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

Nam Cuong commune u  Located on the coast in Tien Hai, Thai Binh province,

Vietnam

u  Consists of 3 villages, total population 3500 Nam Cuong

6 Main water-food-energy problems

1.  Industrial waste water from upstream 2.  Waste water pollution from agricultural production, livestock

and domestic water 3.  Salt intrusion affects agricultural and aquaculture production 4.  The water supply system does not fully meet the demand 5.  Flooding due to lack of embankments (Lan River) 6.  Energy production (and distribution system) does not meet the

demand

Scenarios: From projecting to envisioning the future Nick van de Giesen (Delft University of Technology)

Experiences in Nam Cuong Scenarios Planning and Adaptive Strategy Development with an outlook to 2050 Luong Van Thanh (community), Do Xuan Hoan & Ngụy Thị Khanh (Green ID)

Overview of steps

Participatory meetings Nam Cuong

18 March 2016 7-8 April 2016 17 May 2016

Scenario building Driving forces

•  Industrialisation in Vietnam •  National regulation (Law/subsidies) on use of fertilizer/

environmental pollution •  Rising sea level (Climate change) •  Financial resources for public services in Nam Cuong •  Increasing heavy rainfall (Climate change) •  Dependency on electricity •  Urbanisation in Vietnam •  Drought in dry period (Climate change) •  People’s awareness

Scenario building

More information? Presentation Bao Anh Ngoc wlemekong.wikispaces.com/MK27

Causal diagram

Adaptive strategy plan

More information? Thesis Niels Oostveen wlemekong.wikispaces.com/MK27

Interview:

Plenary discussion

Questions:

“Coffee”-side:

u What are the LIMITATIONS of applications of scenarios at the local level?

“Curtain”-side

u What are the OPPORTUNITIES of application of scenarios as the local level?

Awareness Planning tools Monitoring

Email address: mk27project@gmail.com Information links: http://wlemekong.wikispaces.com/MK27