$5 trillion economic value at stake: digitization of road transportation
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$5 Trillion Economic Value at Stake: Digitization of Road Transportation Andreas Mai Former Director Smart Connected Vehicles, Cisco Systems November 2016
$1,254
$1,251
$895
$884
$790
V@S [$ Billion]
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation System
Advanced Driving Assistance System
Five key value drivers of the ‘Digitization of Transportation’ – ADAS and ITS account for half of the global V@S
$5.0 Trillion
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017-26 & 7% Discount by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
For cars, highest V@S with ADAS and Mobility-as-a-Service – For trucks, ITS and connected fleet drive most of the V@S
$5.0 Trillion $3.4 Trillion V@S by Vehicle Type Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 26 Discounted @ 7% by Vehicle Type [USD Billion]
$1,254 $342 $912
$1,251 $784
$467
$895 $0
$895
$884 $386 $498
$790 $128 $662
All Vehicles All Trucks All Cars
Self-Driven-Vehicle
Connected Vehicle
Mobility-as-a-Service
Intelligent Transportation System Advanced Driving Assistance System
$1.6 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
$5,470
$4,057
$1,915 $3,199
$3,170
$5,074
Cost Reduction Gross Margin Increase
Cost Avoidance Gross Margin Reduction
Cost Increase Net Impact
V@S Model integrates over 450 effects and the resulting creation and migration of values between stakeholders Global – Digitization of Transportation Value Creation, Migration & V@S by Value Type 2017-26 [USD Billion]
• Crashes (Society) • Congestion • Parking space
• MaaS cost/ Mile • Insurance (Owner) • Crashes (Owner)
• New MaaS business • People mobility GDP • L2-5 system (Auto)
• L2-L5 system (Owner)
• More SDV VMT • Data services
• Taxi price/ share • Insurance • Repairs (Dealer)
Value Creation Value Migration V@S
$ 11.4 Trillion $ 6.4 Trillion $ 5.0 Trillion
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
The V@S of Mobility-as-a Service and self-driven vehicles increases over 70% for each 1% point penetration
$48
$86
$291
$555
$685
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Connected
ADAS
ITS
SDV
MaaS
1% 5%
7%
70%
23%
77%
Penetration
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Annual V@S Uplift of 1% Point Vehicle Penetration [% and $ Billion]
$5.1
$1.7
V@S [$ Trillion]
Higher
33%
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
($599)
($65) ($54) ($24)
Half of the V@S is societal – biggest winners are owner, insurer & auto; drivers & car rental are likely losers Global – Digitization of Transportation: Winners & Losers V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount [USD Billion]
$1,128
$638
$566 $324 $235 $206 $152
V@S [$ Billion]
Oil
MSP
NewCo
ITS
Auto
Insurer
Owner
$2.5
$2.5
V@S [$ Trillion]
$5.0 Trillion
Society
Winners & Losers
$3.2 Trillion Losers $0.7 Trillion
Driver
Rental Medical Legal
Winners
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
Significant global societal benefits over the next decade
1 Million 19 Million 12 Million
250 Billion Hours = 140 Million Work Years = 30 Million Years = 400,000 Lifetimes
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Value 2017 – 2026
+185,000 +3.0 Million +2 Million
+ 1% Point Penetration
+100 Billion Hours
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
Autopilot Assisted
North America: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Driving Time
Connected
2,400
880
80 Value $3,360
Work
Media
Rest 0 56%
Shop
1 @ 1.25 vehicle occupancy 2 Congestion, traffic light stops, looking for parking
113 Traffic Inefficiencies 2
2015
580 Hours Driving Time per Vehicle per Year 1
Value of Driving Time
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
Globally: Saving 5.8 Million tanker trucks of fuel – plus 1,500 supertankers of emissions
Emissions Avoided 480 Million Metric Tons = 1,500 Supertankers
Fuel Saved 200 Billion Liters = 5.8 Million Tanker Trucks
2.0 x
Equator
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Societal Environmental Value 2017 – 2026
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
SDV increase net fuel consumption by 60 Billion Liters for each 1 percent point higher penetration: Driving EVs?
-
8
(126)
54
4
Connected
ADAS
SDV
ITS
MaaS 1% Point
0%
7%
22%
- 76%
76%
Penetration
= 60 Billion Liters More Fuel (– 30% of Savings)
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Impact of 1% Point Penetration on Fuel 2017–26 [%/ Billion Liters]
47% Empty Miles: Case for Electrification?
More Fuel Consumption Less Fuel Consumption
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
At 10% of global car population, MaaS has the potential to make 1.7 billion people mobile, especially in Asia & Africa
344.3 458.9 606.2
788.0 995.4
72.3 100.6
139.0
187.3
247.2
0 200 400 600 800
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
Africa Middle East Latin America Asia Pac Eastern Europe & CIS Western Europe North America
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on MaaS Members by Region [# MM]
Current V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Members [# MM]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
MaaS is set to shift new car sales from personal owners in mature markets to emerging markets and fleets
-25 -20 -15 -10
-5 0 5
10 15 20 25 30
0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 7.6% 9.5%
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe & CIS
Asia Pac
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
World
Sensitivity Analysis: Estimated Impact of Global MaaS Fleet on Cars Shed/ Sold by Region [# MM]
Current V@S Model
2026
Mobility-as-a-Service Fleet in Percent of Total Car Population
MaaS Fleet Sold [# ‘000]
Cars Shed [# ‘000]
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
Over 60 Million jobs created for society, fleet owners, ITS and insurers make up for lost jobs of drivers and others
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Other Losers Drivers Other Winners Oil ITS Insurer Owner Society
Global – Digitization of Transportation: Job Creation & Migration by Stakeholder [Million Jobs]
2)
1)
1) Rental, Medical, Legal Industry 2) Auto, MSP, New
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
15%
19%
20%
24%
25%
33%
41%
45%
31%
22%
33%
28%
25%
20%
22%
17%
13%
17%
25%
27%
17%
19%
15%
19%
19%
15%
11%
12%
18%
21%
11%
15%
22%
26%
11%
9%
16%
8%
10%
4%
Western Europe
North America
Eastern Europe
Latin America
World
Asia Pac
Middle East
Africa
ADAS ITS Connected MaaS SDV
V@S per vehicle type varies across the globe = different digitization of transportation priorities for regions & countries Global – Digitization of Transportation: Total V@S 2017 – 2026 @ 7% Discount by Region & Vehicle Type [%]
$5.0 Trillion
$1,812
$1,480
$928
$389 $465
V@S
Rest of World
Latin America
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pac
1) Eastern Europe & CIS, Africa, Middle East
1)
Source: Digitization of Road Transportation V@S Model, Andreas Mai, 2016
Want a deeper drive? andreasmai99@gmail.com
Digitization of Road Transportation Global Value at Stake
Regional Comparison Different Priorities
Regional Strategies Value for Money
Stakeholder Strategies Winners and Losers
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