a waning warming: whats up with that? alan journet alanjournet@gmail.com / 541-301-4107...

“A Waning Warming: What’s Up With That?”Alan Journet

alanjournet@gmail.com / 541-301-4107

Co-Facilitatorhttp://socan.info

For ppt: http://socan.info Projects Presentation Project Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’

ii) The Rest of the Story

i) What is happening to atmospheric temperature?

Two Parts:

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980

2011

1998

2010

2008

20092012

Since 1970s - 1.3⁰FSince 1880s - app. 2.0⁰FSince 1750s - >2.0⁰F

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

0

.36

.36

.72

.72

1.08

1.08

1.44

1.8

⁰F

2013 so far 7th hottest on record –

WMU

State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)

NASA GISS Data

Is it legitimate, when we have a largedate set, to trawl in sub-sets of thosedata for patterns we want to see?

2000 20101980 1990

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

In Regression…the Key Questions

• How close are the data to the line? • If data are close to line we are confident that the line represents

the data accurately, andand• Is the slope of the line (significantly) different from 0 - meaning a

slope (relationship) exists?• Only if the slope is significantly different from 0 (at least 95%

certainty), in science, can we conclude there is a pattern.

Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 202054.5

55

55.5

56

56.5

57

57.5

58

58.5

59

59.5

Year

Tem

pera

tue

Degr

ees F

Regression Analysis Reveals TrendNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1880 - 2012

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 202054.5

55

55.5

56

56.5

57

57.5

58

58.5

59

59.5

f(x) = 0.0154850389202314 x + 27.0680089980719R² = 0.803528146861227

Year

Tem

pera

tue

Degr

ees F

97% of practicing climate scientistshave independently reviewed datasuch as these and concluded:

- There is a greater than 90% probability that human emissionsof greenhouse gases are contributing

- That the planet is warming is unequivocal

If a coin toss comes up heads500/1000 we’d be happy, but 999 times out of 1000we’d be suspicious

http://skepticalscience.com//news.php?f=big-picture

• Phil Brennan, Sept 2009, Newsmax• The planet has been cooling since “around 1998” or “since around

the year 2000.”• http://www.newsmax.com/brennan/obama-global-warming/2009/09/23/id/335170

• Stephen (Lord) Monckton of Benchley • American Physical Society: Forum on Physics and Society; July 2008• Showed following cooling pattern from 2002 – 2008:

http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/monckton.cfm

EXAMPLES

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

57.8

58

58.2

58.4

58.6

58.8

59

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Deg

rees

F

The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

57.8

58

58.2

58.4

58.6

58.8

59

f(x) = 0.0179357142857142 x + 22.5816928571431R² = 0.187384450949428

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Deg

rees

F

1 – Still positive though lower slope and probability

2 – Based on cherry-picked data starting 1998

With a 70% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?

The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 - 2012

The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998

adjusted - 2012

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

57.8

58

58.2

58.4

58.6

58.8

59

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Deg

rees

F

1998 adjusted to mean of two previous and 2 succeeding years

No more legitimate than cherry-picking data-

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

57.8

58

58.2

58.4

58.6

58.8

59

f(x) = 0.0308732142857143 x − 3.3924946428572R² = 0.450225879066579

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Deg

rees

F

Now slope is back, and P > 90%

Indicates the impact ofoutliers on data analysisand conclusions.

The 1998 – 2012 AnalysisNASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998

adjusted - 2012

With a 90% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?

Pattern Adjusted for Natural Factors:ENSO, Solar Cycles, Volcanoes

Absent Cooling Factors - - - Would Have Been A Consistent Rise

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/12/08/1043534/-eSci:-Global-Cooling-Assured-for-the-Next-3-Decades

G. Foster, and S. Rahmsdorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 6, 2011.

However….recently

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/background.html

Cowtan and Way Accepted November 2013Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

IPCC 2013: “…the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012) was 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade, which begins with a strong El Niño,

However, the rate 1951 – 2012 was 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade.”

Adjustment Allowing for

Incomplete coverage by weather stationsespecially lacking in Arctic

where greatest recent warming has occurred

Appeared too late for inclusion in IPCC review Corrected value Increases 1998 – 2012

back to 012°C – same as1951 – 2012Combine this with the previous study and maybe

atmospheric influences have actually increased

Atmospheric Temperature Conclusion

Still warming –

But now – The Rest of the Story….

questionable that it’s a slower rise

Temperature is only one manifestation ofour use of the atmosphere as a carbon waste dump

Eleven Indicators of a Carbon Polluted Planet

Modified From - http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment

Ocean Acidification

Heat vs Temperature

Heat is the amount of energy in a system. The SI units for heat are Joules.

Temperature measures AVERAGE molecular motion in a system and is measured in degrees (F, C, or K).

Incoming Visible light

Transformed toInfra-red = heat.

Then what?

Some infra-red is absorbed byatmospheric

gases

Remainder escapes

into space

The Atmospheric “Greenhouse

Effect"

WARNING:Not drawn to scale

some re-radiated out

If atmospheric gas density increases,

more heat is retained by this ‘thermal

blanket’

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

War

min

g

Less escapes

into space

What proportion of this trapped heat energy is absorbed by the atmosphere and causes atmospheric warming?

Components of a Heating Planet

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=12

Cunning Properties of Water

• High Specific Heat• Water molecules take relatively large amounts of heat to warm.• Imagine saucepan of air vs saucepan of water:• apply heat• which warms fastest?

• High Latent Heat• When water changes state (ice water vapor);• Heat is consumed without a temperature change

• Result is water consumes heat energy without warming very much• Maximum Density

Land and Sea Surface Temperature

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/

Oceans follow but lag

Warming faster in the last60 years than in 10,000

Oceans as heat sinks

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/jun/24/global-warming-pause-button?guni=Article:in%20body%20link

Change not in global warming

but in transfer of heat from upper to deep abyssal zones.

The Rest of the Story

Regardless of the atmospheric temperature trend…..

The planet continues to absorb heat from incoming trapped radiation

It’s GLOBAL Warming – not Atmospheric Warming!

Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable,

Confirmation of Global Warming…

$271 b in US

97%

OR

NY Times