as perspectivas de combustíveis líquidos alternativos no mundo seminário “perspectivas...

As Perspectivas de Combustíveis Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo

Seminário “Perspectivas Energéticas para América Latina”18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP)

Dr. Francisco Rosillo-CalleImperial College London(University of London)

RESUMO

• O papel da indústria do automóvel• Mudanças/implicações• Os grandes desafios• Cenários- ER• Cenários – transporte• Combustíveis principais no mundo• Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural, etanol,

biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo, hidrogênio, DME, ETBE, células combustíveis

The Role of the Automobile Industry/O papel das Montadoras

• Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels (RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As mudanças no sistema de combustíveis dependem de muitos fatores

• They are interrelated to the:– Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel– Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores– Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de

combustíveis– Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e custos

de combustíveis– Social, economic, political….. changes

O Papel/….

• WE drive on industrially manufactured fuels. the tech is constantly improving under constant socio-econimic and enviromental pressures” / Nós usamos combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia muda constantemente, devido a pressões sociais, ambientais e econômicas”

• Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always sufficient

O Papel …

• The automobile industry is going through major changes/Grandes mudanças no setor

• Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial• Intensive competition/ Forte competição• Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de

benefícios é muito pequena• The industry has invested massively on oil-

based fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos combustíveis fósseis

The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em 2003

• GM 8.59 M units (185.5$B)• Toyota 6.78 (153.1$B)• Ford 6.54 (154.2$B)• VW 5.02 (98.4$B)• DaimerC 4.36 (171.9$B)• PSA/Peugeot 3.29 (61.2$B)• Hyundai 3.05 (38.9$B)• Nissan 2.97 (65.8$B)• Honda/ 2.39 (42.4$B)Renault

O Papel…• The industry make 60 M cars & trucks/yr /Produz

60 M de veículos/ano • In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de

veículos em 1995• In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um

bilhão em 2010• This posses major environmental problems/

Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M mortes/ano de acordo com a OMS

Os 4 desafios principais

• The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos combustíveis

• Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner fuels (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de usar combustíveis mais limpos

• At the moment there is not a clear winner/ • Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível?• Which criteria to select them? Que critério?• Most promising –ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic

fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor• Hydrogen, fuel cells… longer term alternatives

O DESAFIOS...• The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia• The IC engine has dominated the transportation

systems/ Domínio do motor CI• Urgent need to developed a more environmentally

friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade de desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger melhor o meio ambiente

• IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas– Promising innovation is the flex-fuel

• New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require considerable RD&D/ Novos sistemas de propulsão vão demorar ainda muitos anos

OS DESAFIOS…• Environ. & Health Challenge/ Os desafios

ambientais e de saúde • Transport is responsible c30% CO2• Stringent environmental legislation/Maior

controle ambiental • Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais:• Menos carros

– Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência – Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic (fossil

or biomass based)– Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes

OS DESAFIOS….

• Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio das estruturas

• Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require expensive infrastructure

• Others (ethanol, biodiesel) don’t and this is a major advantage

• Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio) necessitam de estruturas muito caras

SCENARIOS • Development of RE will affect new RTFs• O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado

ao desenv. das ER• RE can make a major contribution• EREC scenarios*

– Robust support RE = 50% energy (2040)– Significant support = 25%– (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and

not in conventional energy- ela só considera os desenvolvimentos tecnológicos)

*Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis

Scenarios

2001 2010 2020 2030 2040World energy consumption MTOE

10,038 11,752 13,553 15,547 17,690

Biomass 1080 1291 1653 2221 2843Hydro L 223 255 281 296 308Hydro S 9.5 16 34 62 91Wind 4.7 35 167 395 584PV 0.2 1 15 110 445Solar T 4.1 11 41 127 274Solar TW

0.1 0.4

2 9 29

Scenario, Cont..

Geother 43 73 131 194 261

Tidal… 0.05 0.1

0.4

2 9

Total RE 1364 1683 2324 3416 4844

% RE 13.6 14.3 17.1 22.0 27.4

Scenarios

• RE provides (exclud trad biomass & hydro) 100 GW of grid connected electric

• Cumulative investment/ Inversões (1995-2003)= $85 B

• Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003); 0.5% world electricity; 2008 = 95GW

• Germany = 14.6 GW (2003)• Spain = 6.4 GW• USA = 6.34 GW

Scenarios Transporte• Global estimates not quantified/O potencial

mundial não foi quantificado• Studies focussed on tech rather than economics

or social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica• Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes

it difficult to determine the most effective use• Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor

uso energético• Lack of an international market/ Falta de um

cartel internacional

Scenarios Transporte..

• Advanced Conversion tech• Key R&DD areas/ Áreas princípais de P&D

– Conversion of cellulose to sugars– Biomass conversion via gasification & thermal

chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química converção

– (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be obtained from resulting gases)

– Pyrolysis to produce “bio-crude/bio-oleo”

Possible Fuel ChainsResources Conversion technology End-fuel End-use

Arable/Annual crops

Rape (Canola) seed Bio-Oil

Wheat

Maize Pressing/Esterification

Sugar Beet Bio-Diesel

PotatoesInternal combustion

Herbaceous perennials Hydrolysis/Fermentation engine vehicle

MiscanthusEthanol

Swithchgrass

Reed canary grass Fuel cell vehiclePyrolysis

Woody perennials

Short rotation willow / poplar Methanol

Pine / Spruce DME

Residues & wastes Gasification

Forestry residues Bio-Methane

StrawDigestion Hydrogen

Municipal solid/liquid waste

Waste fats and oils Battery vehicleCombustion

Electricity Trains

Non-Biomass RenewablesHydroWindSolar

Marine

Possible UK-based renewable transport fuel chains

Scenarios Transporte…

• Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80 BL gasoline equiv) or 6% of world gasoline (2020)

• Other = 10% and 3% of diesel (ethanol from cane)

• 33-35% of gasoline (2050-2100)– Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres– Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países

indústriais

COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS

• Gasoline & reformulated gasoline from crude oil

• Diesel oil & reformulated diesel from crude oil

• Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas and biomass)

• Natural gas

Combustíveis, cont..

• Methanol from natural gas, coal, or cellulose material

• Ethanol from sugars/starches and cellulose

• Biodiesel from oil-containing plants• Hydrogen by electrolysis of water• Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas Fuel cells (electric engines)

Production of Biomass Derived End-Fuels (Transport)

1. Biodiesel2. Ethanol3. Hydrogen4. Bio-oil5. Bio-gas6. Methanol7. DME8. Electricity

Combustíveis, cont…

• ETBE based on bioethanol• Biogas• Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or

biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo

Combustíveis, cont..• The biofuels considered in the EU are:• Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola,

sunflower/girassol, etc)• Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc)• ETBE (based on bioethanol)• Biogas• Biomethanol (based on biomass or

biodegradable waste)• Biodimethylether (based on biomass or

biodegradable waste)

Combustiveis, cont…

• Gasoline/diesel- reformulated • R&D on these fuels is gathering pace/

Incremento rápido em P&D• These fuels quality is improving and will

develop, eventually, into even higher and cleaner fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos combustíveis (gasolina e diesel)

• They would be able to compete with biofuels on an environmental basis

Combustiveis, cont…

• Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos • Synthetic fuels will become increasingly

important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior importância no futuro

• South Africa has been producing them for many years (oil, coal and natural gas) – 40% of total supply – New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia– This has implications for biofuels

Combustíveis, cont…• Ethanol (bio) 2003• World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países)• Brazil 14.2 BL• USA 10.6 BL (circa)• EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+

Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool)• Others, c.2 BL• (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India,

Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc)• 35 countries interested

Combustíveis, cont…• Ethanol, cont.• World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in

2020 (c.10% transport fuels)• Brazil 22 BL in 2012• USA 20 BL (2012)• EU 8-10 BL (2010)• Canada 1.33 BL 2010)• China 10 BL (2010?)• India 1.5 BL• LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)

Combustíveis, cont…• Methanol• Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível• Produced mostly from natural gas• Used as a building block for many applications• Production 47.3 BL (2000)• It is suitable for gas turbines and IC• Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor

para uso em células combustíveis• Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American

Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org

Bio-methanolFeedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)•Short Rotation Coppice•Long Rotation Forestry•Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other •Waste oils & fats?

Conversion Technology

Pilot Demonstration:• Oil stabilisation and use

Novel:• Catalytic upgrading of oil• New reactors and continued development of existing reactors

End-Fuel

•Raw bio-oil

•Stabilised bio-oil

•Upgraded bio-oil

End Use

•Hydrogen•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

Vehicle IC Engine

Electricity ProductionVia turbine

(steam and / or ‘gas’)Fuel Cell

Gasification and syngas reformulation

Combustíveis, cont…

• Biodiesel• Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento

rápido nos anos recentes• EU = c2.5 BL (Germany= 1.3 BL)• Can be obtained from many sources• Many countries are considering biodiesel• Brazil can be a world leader

– Programa de biodiesel

Combustíveis, cont…

• Bio-crude/bio-oleo • Many potential applications/ Grande

potencial• Niche applications/Aplicações especiais• Unlikely use in transportation in large

scale/Uso em pequena escala

Combustíveis, cont…• Biogas• Large experience in non-transport applications• Used in niche markets (urban transport)• Many experiments • Can use same infrastructure than natural gas• Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N• Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena

escala• Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico

Combustíveis, cont…

• Gás natural • Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells• Clean fuel; increasing use• About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004)

(CNG and LNG)– 130,000 in the USA(Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)

Combustíveis, cont…• Dimethyl ether (DME)• Advantage: can be made from any carbonaceous

feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass) using established technologies/DME pode-se conseguir do gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa.. com tecnologias existentes

• Current global production= 150,000 t/y + 1.8 Mt under construction

• Major interests:– Russia- from N gas in Siberia– China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport)– Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP);

DME (Dimethyl Ether)Feedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)• Short Rotation Coppice• Long Rotation Forestry• Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other • Wastes (MSW)

Conversion Technology

Advanced Gasification and syngas reformulation

Novel:• Still in R&D stage

End-Fuel

•DME as diesel extender / modifier

End UseVehicle

Internal Combustion Engine

Combustíveis, cont…

• Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE)• Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and

petroleum derivatives to produce a clean-burning fuel additive/Produzido a partir da reação de etanol com o GS, e outros derivados do petróleo para a produção de um aditivo limpo

• ETBE is approx. 42% ethanol• ETBE is favoured in the EU• MTBE is facing difficulties

Combustíveis, cont…

• Hydrogen • Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais

promissor para células combustíveis• Hydrogen from ethanol• Many problems • Infrastructure • 20 years away in large scale

HydrogenFeedstocks

Crops (Lignocellulosic)• Short Rotation Coppice• Long Rotation Forestry• Residues:

- Forestry - Agricultural

Other • Renewable Electricity• Wastes (MSW)

Conversion Technology

Gasification and syngas reformulationElectrolysis

Pilot Demonstration:• Fuel Cell Vehicles• CHP systems

Novel:• Infrastructure development• ??

End-Fuel

•Hydrogen

End Use

•Hydrogen•Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

Vehicle Fuel Cell

Electricity ProductionVia turbine

(steam and / or ‘gas’)Fuel Cell

Main References• www.erec-renewables.org • www.biodiesel.at • www.methanol.org • www.economist.com/surveys/ • Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC,

Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004• Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3, Int.

Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4• Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An International

Perspective, IEA• Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrow’s World,

REW 7:4: 238-245

Finalmente…• Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito

complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no setor do transporte.

• Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários e muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e ambientais…

• No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos, mas o petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias décadas

• MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!