autonews ibm truck 2020 webinar presentation 11-13-2009
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Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence
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http://truck2020.blogspot.com
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Welcome
Peter Brown
Associate PublisherAnd Editorial Director
Automotive News
Sanjay Rishi
Vice President and Global Automotive Industry Leader
IBM Global Business Services
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence
Sanjay Rishi / IBM Global Automotive LeaderCalstart HTUF / October 28, 2009
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Interviews included the entire trucking value chain, multi-modal operators, industry regulators and associations
Truck OEMs Truck Suppliers Value Chain
Fleets Bus OEMs Regulators Associations Others
Group Lenormand
Chongqing Heavy Vehicle Group
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Our interviews were global and comprehensive
Interviews by Industry Segment
� 60% - OEMs and suppliers
� 8 of the top 10 OEMs, that includes
over 85% of total volume
� Other interviews include; regulators,
dealers/bodybuilders and multi-modal
operators
Interviews by Region
� 91 executive interviews completed
� 13 countries
� Emerging countries accounted for
16%: Eastern Europe, Brazil, Russia,
India and China
OEMs
35%
Suppliers
25%
Others
18%
US/Canada
39%
Western
Europe
25%
Japan
20%
EBRIC
16%
Value
Chain
13%
Fleets
9%
© 2009 IBM Corporation
By 2020, there will be radical changes in the pressures facing truck executives compared to the issues they are addressing today
2009 2020
70%
61%
45%
48%
32%
15%
12%
15%,
71%
48%
54%
36%
28%
25%22%
9%
Technology Progress
Globalization
Economic Stability
Sustainability Concerns
Government Influences
Corporate Social Responsibility
Global Labor
Force
Urban Development
What are the most important external forces
impacting the industry Today and in 2020?
Decreasing Trends
Increasing Trends
“Our business will change drastically as the basics of our economics and ecology
is radically altered”–European Truck OEM
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The impact of the current economic crisis will subside, but could have longer implications for those who have failed to invest
28%
70%
Economic StabilityTruck production volume has seen the largest decreases on record over the last 8 months
… but, there may be residual effect from the
economy. Companies deferring investment
leave themselves at risk when growth resumes
Executives largely agree that these events will
abate over time and the industry will focus on
growth for the future…
2009 2020
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The monumental changes facing the industry require truck producers to navigate the road ahead carefully
Globalization efforts will be
a force through the decade…
…as the vehicle’s Brand is
increasingly commoditized…
…but embracing technologywill be a clear path forward…
This transition requires a new enterprise
and different workforce
…while new markets, partnershipsand focus to service offers growth
© 2009 IBM Corporation
While the surge toward globalization is building, the path and speed of that transformation is less certain
What are the most important external forces
impacting the industry Today and in 2020?
2009 2020
48%
54%
Globalization55%
31%
“There are too many differences regionally for globalization to work for this industry”
–US Supplier
Truck 2020
Automotive 2020
“Suppliers and Auto OEMs are successful because they embraced globalization. Truck OEMs need to do this urgently”
–Japanese Truck OEM
© 2009 IBM Corporation
-1 0 1 2
Purchasing decisions will be based on regulatory and value issues, rather than brand loyalty
Rate the Change in Vehicle Buying Criteria 2008 � 2020
Unchanged
Fuel Efficiency
Eco-friendly
Traffic congestion
Personalization
Safety
Reliability
Price
Brand
Values of Company
Configurability
Credit & Financing
Total Cost of Ownership
IncreasingDecreasing
Fuel Efficiency, Total Cost of Ownership, and Eco-friendly criteria are
increasing in importance
Brand of the vehicleis becoming much
less important
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The developed markets, with established brands, recognize the vehicle is being commoditized
-1 0 1 2Unchanged
Fuel Efficiency
Eco-friendly
Traffic congestion
Personalization
Safety
Reliability
Price
Brand
Values of Company
Configurability
Credit & Financing
Total Cost of Ownership
IncreasingDecreasing
Breakdown of BRAND by Market
-1 0 1
–0.3, n=76Developed
1.2, n=15Emerging
Unchanged
The developed markets agree the
brand is losing importance
© 2009 IBM Corporation
There is broad agreement across markets and industry segments that the vehicle’s brand is diminishing in importance
-1 0 1
Breakdown by Market
W. Europe
US/Canada
Unchanged
Japan
Emerging
–0.7
–0.2
-1 0 1
Breakdown by Segment
–0.8
OEMs: Developed/Emerging
Suppliers
Unchanged
Dealer/Body
Others
Fleets –0.5
–0.41.25
“Brand reduces in importance as more similar products enter the market”
–Indian Truck OEM
Brand diminishment was validated in Europe, US,
OEMs in developed countries, suppliers and fleets
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Truck manufacturers must transition from a brand image centered on the vehicle to one that addresses the larger transportation solution
Navigation / Routing
Service Contracts
Vehicle
“The differentiation won’t be on products, but on services”–European Truck OEM
+
+
Today vehicles are sold with
non-integrated add-ons
By 2020, the value will be in
integrated solutions
Integrated Telematics
Bundled Services
Comprehensive Serviceability
Advanced Vehicles
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Innovation in the vehicle will remain important as investments center on connectivity, emissions and fuel economy
Rate the Level of Innovation in various
aspects of the vehicle by 2020
Low High
“The development of software is much more important than hardware”
–Japanese Truck OEM
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.4
1 2 3 4 5
Body Structure
Interior
Chassis
Body Exterior
Trailer/Load
Braking Systems
Pow ertrain
Engine & Auxiliary
Systems
Softw are
Electrical
Systems/Electronics
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Telematics will impact everything about the vehicle and its usage
Service• Remote and faster diagnostics, reducing service time
• Prognostics, managing PM cycles and proactive servicing
Safety• Navigation
• Speed control approaching curves, exits and turns
Driver Assistance• Route navigation, geofencing, notice of rest, fuel or service areas
• Electronic payments - toll, drive thru, parking, road charging
Regulatory Compliance• Determining what roads and boundaries that the vehicle can go
• Auto identification and reporting of non-compliance
Sustainability• Managing fuel economy through navigation and driver information
• Switching to different power modes based on regulations
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Technology is also critical in addressing the issues of oil…
100m long
100m wide
396m deep!
…81% of US oil imports could be eliminated
if all cars and trucks were fully electric
Daily US Oil consumption represented as a lake…
Energy and Transportation
Consumption in the US
LightVehicles
51%Trucks
30%
Air13%
Other6%
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Hybrid vehicles offer the best overall opportunity for more efficient energy usage
1.9
0.9
1.0
2.7
Light Vehicles Relative to Gasoline
Heavy Vehicles Relative to Diesel
1.0
1.0
2.3
3.0
Gasoline/diesel plus ethanol and biomass blends
Compressed and liquefied natural gas
Energy Efficiency Ratio Comparison
Efficiency of each source based on cumulative effects
associated with producing, transporting, and using fuel…
Hydrogen in a fuel cell
Electricity in a battery or plug in hybrid electric
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Hybridization will be
applied far and wide…
Solutions will come from many places, but hybridization will make the biggest difference by 2020
Alternative fuel technologies develop as infrastructure is built out
Retrofittingexisting fleets should
be encouraged
� CNG
� LNG
� Methane
� Plug-in hybrid
� Hydraulic hybrid
� Some applications can be electric
� With as much incentives as new production…
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The US is in an outstanding position to lead this transformation
We have the
entrepreneurshipWe have the
innovationWe have the
incentive
� More small emerging suppliers
� Venture capital investment
� Outstanding innovation culture
� Many hybrid solutions are being tested here
� US is enabling stimulus explicitly for hybrid trucks
� State-based stimulus helps further
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models
packaged into
solutions…
Enabling
technology…
…built through
partnerships
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The combination of technology, solutions and partnerships will lead to differentiating business models
packaged into
solutions…
Enabling
technology…
…built through
partnerships
• Fully electric
• 60,000lb Load
• Recharge in 30 min
• Price as conventional vehicle
• Deferred fuel annuity
• Battery swap warranty
• Partner based on applications
• Establish preferred transport green routes
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Industry ecosystems must align to address environmental, regulatory and customer concerns
Truck and Bus
Government- Transportation
- Energy- Safety Energy /
Utilities
Telecommunications
Other Industries- Financial Services- Biotechnology
- Retail / CP
Automotive- Light Vehicle
Electronics- Software
Performance Optimization
Plug in Hybrid Recharging
© 2009 IBM Corporation
Cross industry partnerships will be instrumental to some of the biggest issues facing the industry
Truck Mfg / Fleets
UtilitiesGovernmentTransition to Plug-
in Hybrid Fleets:
Truck Mfg / Fleets
Shipping / Barge
GovernmentIntermodal
Optimization:
Truck Mfg / Fleets
RetailersGovernmentUrban Traffic
Management:
Finance
Rail
Utilities
“The industry doesn't realize yet how much it
needs to change”–US Industry Organization
© 2009 IBM Corporation
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Finance
Procurement
Production
Software Development
Leadership
Service Technician
Product Planning
Marketing / Selling
Engineering
This transformation requires a new enterprise and a fundamentally different workforce
Rate the most critical skills
for the industry in 2020
Truck 2020
Automotive 2020
“The truck enterprise of the future has to be positioned differently in the market”
–European Truck OEM
“Leadership is especially critical in a distributed workforce”–North American Integrator
© 2009 IBM Corporation
The future will be exciting for the truck industry and the industry must seize the moment
� To globally integrate or regionally specialize? This is the dilemma for truck manufacturers
� Brand of the vehicle is being commoditized, truck manufacturers will have to evolve their definition of brand and develop solutions
� Telematics is your most important investment for the future
� Hybrid truck development is critical for the future, particularly given increased urbanization globally
� The US is leading this innovation and must continue to invest to maintain this lead
� Truck manufacturers must aggressively expand their thinking about partnerships beyond traditional industry boundaries
� The winners by 2020 will have significantly transformed their workforce
Bill Van Amburg
Senior Vice President
CALSTART
HTUF 2009HTUF 2009
Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF)
� User-driven process to commercialize medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks
� Joint CALSTART-U.S. Army program (RDECOM-TARDEC-NAC)� Also supported by Hewlett Foundation,
support from DOE, DOT
� HTUF focuses on commercializing hybrid trucks with dual-use benefits � Speed commercialization and reduce
overall costs by creating common fleet requirements, joint purchase commitments, increasing volumes
More than 80 National Fleets and All Major Truck Makers & System Suppliers involved (partial list)
Key Take-Aways From HTUF 2009
� Hybrids are real – in first, low-volume production (but low volume means higher cost)
� The applications are expanding – big growth in chassis/body combinations
� Hybrids bring big energy security, economic and emissions benefits: reduced fuel use, lower emissions and US manufacturing and engineering jobs
� U.S. currently is the leader in this technology –though competition is growing
� Public partnership to speed this industry would be useful – helping fleets buy to increase production is biggest help
Regional Heavy & Line Haul Hybrid Trucks
� Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar and Freightliner all have Class 8 regional haul tractors (up to 55,000 GVWR single axle)� All developing next generation advanced Class 8 – including
electric and hybrid configurations
� Mack showcased advanced hybrid line haul Class 8(full 80,000 lb GVWR); next stages add more electrification
Hydraulic Hybrids Coming of Age� Several pre-
production and near production models shown: Eaton, Bosch Rexroth, Parker
� Parallel and Series architecture
� FCCC – Parker series parcel strip chassis showed impressive integration, potential fuel savings
Emergence of Serious Electric Platforms
� Freightliner Custom Chassis and Enova showcased
� Joins: � Navistar/Modec
(production Q1 2010)
� Ford/Azure (Transit Connect, 2010)
Hybrid Trucks Now Entering Market
DevelopmentPre-Production
Production IntentEarly Production
Test prototypes and systems
Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles)
Assembly line builds up to 100+
Initial commercial volumes – still high incremental cost
TO
OL
S:
R&D Support
Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF)
Purchase Incentives
Hybrid introduction 10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing
Hybrid Truck Technology Critical to U.S.
� Hybridization provides significant immediate benefits� ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel
consumption (30-50%)
� EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions (10-60%)
� One of few strategies to improve on 2010 emissions reductions
� ECONOMY: North American leadership in technology, manufacturing
Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data
Reductions come just from
hybrid system, no additional
after-treatment
CO2 reductions closely
tracked fuel reduction
percentages
Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI
Hybrid Trucks at “Tipping Point”
� Hybrid truck production volumes are
still too low in early market to realize
price reductions
� However: modest volumes can move prices to within business cases needs: Need 3,000 - 5,000 driveline units/year
� Industry Needs:
� Long term R&D – energy storage,
efficient components, integration
� Pre-production funding (10-100
vehicles per application)
� Commercially-focused purchase
incentives
Lessons from Hybrid Launch
� Truck world is changing rapidly – hybrids and advanced trucks are the first salvo
� Users needs and demands are changing rapidly –energy efficiency, emissions, sustainability rising
� Trucks of the future will require very different technologies for powertrains, components, vehicle management and operation
� Truck makers will need new skills, non-traditional suppliers and business models to address these changes – it is becoming a high-tech industry
� U.S. currently is the leader in some of these first technologies – though competition is growing
� A multi-year suite of US strategies, investments and policies to support truck industry change is needed
Michael Stark
Senior Technical Sales Manager National Accounts
Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation
Michael Stark
Daimler Trucks North America
CleanDrive Technologies Globalization
Daimler Commercial Vehicle Sustainable Mobility
Light
Duty
Trucks
Asia
Market
Hybrid
Technology
1
Global Hybrid Center
First steps done. Further success factors to be investigated in next year
Material costs
� Modular componentsSystem platform with scalable components, e.g. derive Medium Power system using Light & High Power system
� Technology enhancementsTechnology improvements for material cost reductions
� Vehicle packagingEnlarge max. addressable vehicle volume
� Target costingStrong Involvement of suppliers for cost reduction
Fuel savings
� HEV componentsDefine optimal HEV components for max fuel saving potential (design to point)
� Operation strategyDevelop optimal vehicle and application HEV operation strategy
� Investigations to be
extended on
-component specification
High-power System
- Packaging concept
improvement
- concept competitions
with suppliers
Major levers Measures Need for action
A3Conclusion
Two modular hybrid systems defined Medium and Heavy Duty Application s
InputApproach Results
• Reference Vehicles
MD: (M2)
• Load profilesEmpty: 0 % payload
Semi loaded: 60 % payload Fully loaded: 100 % payload
• Route profilesHighway: Atlanta-Memphis
RTInterurban: Sysco FoodsCity cycle: Nestle/FedEx
• Energy analysis- Based on input data
approach used to calculate optimal fuel saving potentials for each vehicle**
- Fuel saving potentials used as basis for HEV
systems definition
94Number of cells
2,4nom. Capacity [kWh]
32 - 50effect.
peak
const.
55
23Battery
Power [kW]
Voltage [V] 360
Hig
h P
ow
er
Syste
mM
ed
ium
Po
wer
Syste
m
188Number of cells
4,8nom. Capacity [kWh]
65 - 100effect.
peak
const.
110
45Battery
Power [kW]
Voltage [V] 720HD: (Cascadia)
Example: MDHighway: 52 %*
Interurban: 26 %*
City cycle: 22 %*
Empty: 30 %* at 6tSemi loaded: 45 %* at
9,6t Fully loaded:100 %*
at 12t
• Limiting factors for system layout
are- legislation
(max. voltage 750V)- available technology for
battery(cell output limited)
- available technology for inverter
Looking Forward
Hydraulic HybridAdvanced “Engine Off” Feature
50% - 70% increase in MPG
All-electric Plug-In VehiclesZero emissions- $0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost
vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas Vehiclen
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