damned lies and statistics - steven s. smith hoff sommers, who stole feminism? (1994)

Damned Liesand Statistics

“Every year since 1950, the number of American children gunned down has doubled.”

– journal article published in 1995

“Every year since 1950, the number of American children gunned down has doubled.” – 1995 article

• 1950 = 1• 1951 = 2• 1952 = 4• 1960 = 1,024• 1970 = 1,000,000+• 1980 = 1,000,000,000+• 1983 = 8,600,000,000+ (twice Earth’s population)• 1987 = 137,000,000,000+ (more than total human

population in history)• 1995 = 35,000,000,000,000+ (date article was published)• 2011 = 2,000,000,000,000,000,000+ (assuming trend has

continued)

“Every year since 1950, the number of American children gunned down has doubled.”

– journal article published in 1995

“The number of American children killed each year by guns has doubled since 1950.”

–Children’s Defense Fund

“. . . The solicitation of minors for sex, on-line, is increasing at a rate of 1,000 percent per month.”

--op-ed in San Diego Union-Tribune (2000)

ORNITHOCIDE

The estimate that one billion birds die each year in the U.S. from colliding into windows is actually based on “very careful data.” – interview with an architect on “All Things

Considered”–March 11, 2005

Best estimate for total bird population = 20 billion (fall)

Previous estimate for collision deaths: 3.5 million deaths per year

ORNITHOCIDE (continued)

New estimate by ornithologist:

97 million buildings in the U.S. with windows

X 1-10 bird deaths per building

= 97 million-975 million bird deaths per year

Advocates routinely take higher figure and round up = 1 billion

ORNITHOCIDE (continued)

A Rival Estimate: 80 million birds killed by window collisions

BUT the same website suggests:

Domestic cats kill over 1 billion birds per year (“This figure does not include the losses resulting from feral or wild populations of cats.”)

There are about 71 million pet cats, so each cat kills an average of 14 birds per year.

A Terrible Example

A Name“It is absolutely critical that we establish a policy which

guarantees that the various criteria used to determine whether or not a child is to be considered a missing child be subject to the most generous interpretation. We must not begin by discriminating against kinds of missing children.”

--Kristin Cole Brown (Child Find), 1981

“This country is littered with mutilated, decapitated, raped, strangled children.”

--John Walsh, 1983

“Nearly 2,000,000 children in this country disappear from their homes each year.”

--Chicago TV station

“The most conservative estimate is that 50,000 young people disappear each year, because of ‘stranger kidnappings.’”

--member of Congress

A Number

Worst graph of 2011?

(London Times,

January 4)

• Origin: “[The psychiatrist who treated Karen Carpenter] said ‘there are between 150,000 to 200,000 sufferers of anorexia nervosa. . . .’” --newsletter of the American Anorexia/Bulimia Association, 1985

• Transformation: “[The American Anorexia and Bulimia Association’s] materials routinely state that anorexia nervosa and bulimia strike a million Americans every year and that one hundred fifty thousand die annually.” -- Cornell University historian Joan Jacobs Brumberg, Fasting Girls (Harvard University Press, 1988) citing the above article

• Repetition: “Each year, . . . 150,000 American women die of anorexia. . . . As criminally neglectful as media coverage of the AIDS epidemic has been, it still dwarfs that of anorexia. . . .” -- Naomi Wolfe, The Beauty Myth (1991) citing Brumberg

• Improvement: “. . . about 150,000 females die of anorexia each year–and they’re often the female version of ‘the best and the brightest’. . . .” -- Gloria Steinem, Revolution from Within (1992) citing Wolfe

• Debunking: “. . . the correct figure is less than 100 per year.” --Christina Hoff Sommers, Who Stole Feminism? (1994)

• Life After Death: “. . .nearly 150,000 women in the U.S. die from anorexia every year.” -- Healthyplace.com (2008)

Projections of Sudden Turns for the Worse

Why will liver deaths increase while alcohol use is declining?

“As the first wave of baby boomers edges toward retirement, a growing body of evidence suggests that they may be the first generation to enter their golden years in worse health than their parents.”

--Washington Post(2007)

Reasons to be skeptical (I)

• Life expectancies for older Americans have increased steadily since 1950--on average, about one month per year

• Disability has been declining among older Americans

Reasons to be skeptical (II)• Baby boomers have had much lower

mortality rates than older cohorts at the same ages

• Baby boomers are better educated and better off financially than older cohorts

• Baby boomers are less likely to smoke (and to have ever smoked) than older cohorts

• In other surveys, baby boomers are lesslikely than older cohorts to describe their health as fair or poor

Reasons to be skeptical (III)

• Baby boomers have higher rates of obesity than older cohorts, BUT

• Being obese reduces life expectancy, on average, about 4-12 months

• “Baby Boom members approaching old age might have greater expectations about their health than earlier groups and thus might be more critical in their assessments”

“As well-educated baby boomers retire over the next decades, the quality of the American work force is likely to decline.”

--New York Times (2008)

From J. F. Kirkegaard, The Accelerating Decline in America’s High-Skilled Workforce (2007)—reproduced by permission.

Percentages of Americans Aged 25-29 in 1999 Who Had

Attained Particular Levels of Education in 1999 and 2009

Percentage Having Age 25-29 Age 35-39Attained at Least in 1999 in 2009 Increase

Master’s Degree 5.4% 12.0% +6.6%

Bachelor’s Degree 28.2% 33.9% +5.7%

Some College 58.0% 61.1% +3.1%

High School Graduate 87.8% 88.0% +0.2%

0

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70

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Figure X: Percentages of Americans with Different Amounts of Tertiary Education, Cohorts in 1999 and

2009

Some College Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree

Percentages of Americans Aged 25-39 in 1999 and 2009Who Had Attained Particular Levels of Education

Percentage Having Age 35-39 Age 35-39Attained at Least in 1999 in 2009 Increase

Master’s Degree 7.7% 12.0% +4.3%

Bachelor’s Degree 27.0% 33.9% +6.9%

Some College 53.1% 61.1% +8.0%

High School Graduate 87.6% 88.0% +0.4%

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Figure Y: Percentage of Americans with Different Amounts of Tertiary Education by Age Cohort, 1999

and 2009

Some College Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree

Million Man March Crowd Estimates

March organizers – 1,500,000 to 2,000,000

NPS Park Police – 400,000

(1 person per 3.6 sq. ft.)

Boston Univ. team – 837,000 (+/- 25%)

(1 person per 1.8 sq. ft.)

Obama

A million, or so.

To put things in perspective. . . .

For more, let me recommend: