dr. volker steinbach bgr - bundesanstalt für geowissenschaften und rohstoffe
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B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Dr. Volker Steinbach
BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe
BGR - Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources
MAEGS 1517th September 2007, Tallinn
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Relative Price Development of the LME MetalsRelative Price Development of the LME MetalsRelative Price Development of the LME MetalsRelative Price Development of the LME Metals
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
AluminiumLeadCopperNickelZincTin
0
prices April 11 spot prices
2 853 US $/ t2 045 US $/ t7 971 US $/ t
50 800 US $/ t3 582 US $/ t
14 435 US $/ t
Source: BGR database
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
• High demand by China, but also:
• Low investment in mining and processing
• Low exploration expenditures
• Transport shortages
• High demand from other highly populated countries
Current Situation in the Raw Materials SectorCurrent Situation in the Raw Materials SectorCurrent Situation in the Raw Materials SectorCurrent Situation in the Raw Materials Sector
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Comparison CHINA - GermanyComparison CHINA - GermanyComparison CHINA - GermanyComparison CHINA - Germanypeople to newly manufactured cars
1 car on 3 625 people 1 car on 23 people
19961996
Source: VDA, BGR
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
ComparisonComparison CHINA - Germany CHINA - GermanyComparisonComparison CHINA - Germany CHINA - Germanypeople to newly manufactured carspeople to newly manufactured cars
1 car on 305 people 1 car on 15 people
20062006
Source: VDA, BGR
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005
Source: BGR
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
China‘s Share of World Production China‘s Share of World Production and Projected Chinese Foreign Investmentsand Projected Chinese Foreign Investments
China‘s Share of World Production China‘s Share of World Production and Projected Chinese Foreign Investmentsand Projected Chinese Foreign Investments
Source: BGR
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ?Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ? (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable
reserves)reserves)
Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ?Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ? (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable
reserves)reserves)
REE
PGM
Copper
Chromite
Bauxite
Iron Ore 18%
18%
14%
35%
12%
RSA
Russia
Kazakhstan
Australia
Brazil
Chile88%
32%
Guinea
19%
9%Jamaica
30%
22%
7%
7%
6%
USA
Poland
Indonesia
China
Sources: BGR database, USGS
31%
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
20
40
60
80
100
Bauxite
%
Pb
97.6 94.4
Fe
97.9 94.5
Cu
97.0
Ni
90.8
Zn
Mine and Refined Production in 2005:Mine and Refined Production in 2005:Europe - WorldEurope - WorldMine and Refined Production in 2005:Mine and Refined Production in 2005:Europe - WorldEurope - World
0
Source: BGR database
CrudeSteel
82.6
17.4
84.3
15.7
83.6
Al
16.4
79.3
20.7
76.7
23.3
84.8
15.2
mine production
refined production
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
2111n.a.1st Stage processing
52223Refining
----545----Mining
NickelLeadZincCopperAluminium
EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005
Source: Euromines
EU Metals Industry in 2005: World RankingEU Metals Industry in 2005: World RankingEU Metals Industry in 2005: World RankingEU Metals Industry in 2005: World Ranking
AluminiumBauxite
Copper Zinc Lead Nickel
Demand % of World
26.5 % 22.9 % 22.6 % 23.4 % 31.8 %
Degree of EU Import Dependency
80 % 74 % 80 % 76 % 86 %
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Scenario: Projected World Steel ComsumptionScenario: Projected World Steel ComsumptionScenario: Projected World Steel ComsumptionScenario: Projected World Steel Comsumption
crud
e s
teel co
nsu
mpti
on m
ill.t
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
India PR China
USSR / Russian Federation OECD and Eastern
Europe
5.9 %9.0 %-1.0
%0.9 %
Source: BGR database
Average growth rates 1970 – 2005 (3,7 %):
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 1960: 121 mill. t In 1960: 121 mill. t
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 1960: 121 mill. t In 1960: 121 mill. t
Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS
5
120
19
5
15
3
5
5 1
9
6
7
17
5
11 exports in mill. t
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2001: 441 mill. t In 2001: 441 mill. t
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2001: 441 mill. t In 2001: 441 mill. t
11 exports in mill. t
16
214
7
10
4155
24 166
35
17
Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2006: 725 mill. t In 2006: 725 mill. t
Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore TradeFlows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2006: 725 mill. t In 2006: 725 mill. t
18
218.5
8.5
11
6.2
30 270
95
21.5
Three companies are controlling 71 % of the seaborne iron ore trade:BHP Billiton, CVRD, Rio Tinto
Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, Eurostat
11 exports in mill. t
255
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
RoW: 23 Countries
Imports: 146 200 000 t
Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005
47.8
8.77.3
7.3
7.0
6.3
4.9
10.7
Brazil
Australia
Ukraine
Canada
Mauritania
Russia
RSA
Production: 27 032 950 t
Sweden: 23 256 000 t
Rest of Europe2.1 %
Sweden
Sources: Eurostat, BGR database
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Availability of Mineral Raw Materials Availability of Mineral Raw Materials Availability of Mineral Raw Materials Availability of Mineral Raw Materials
increasing demandincreasing demand
rising pricesrising prices
- higher recycling rates- more substitution
- miniaturisation
- higher recycling rates- more substitution
- miniaturisation
- new deposits/types- low-grade deposits are becoming economic
- new raw material sources
- new deposits/types- low-grade deposits are becoming economic
- new raw material sources
supply and demand supply and demand
- human creativity- new technical methods- higher research efforts
- human creativity- new technical methods- higher research efforts
- human creativity- higher exploration efforts
- engaging in higher exploration risks
- human creativity- higher exploration efforts
- engaging in higher exploration risks
- bigger reserves- higher lifetimes- no shortages
- bigger reserves- higher lifetimes- no shortages
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800 U
S$
billi
on
CR
B M
etals Sub-Index
Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals)Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals)
vs CRB Metals Sub-Indexvs CRB Metals Sub-Index
Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals)Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals)
vs CRB Metals Sub-Indexvs CRB Metals Sub-Index
Sources: Metals Economics Group, Reuters
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
7 000 t
If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today…If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today…If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today…If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today…
he would need just 30 % of the steel …he would need just 30 % of the steel …he would need just 30 % of the steel …he would need just 30 % of the steel …
7 000 t
2 100 t
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Geological Aspects of the Availability ofGeological Aspects of the Availability ofMetallic Raw MaterialsMetallic Raw Materials
Geological Aspects of the Availability ofGeological Aspects of the Availability ofMetallic Raw MaterialsMetallic Raw Materials
• In the foreseeable future there will be no limitation to the availability of metallic raw materials. Their availability is a question of costs and of market access.
• Metallic raw materials are unevenly distributed in the world.
• Commodity markets are global markets.
• We can secure the availability of metallic raw materials in the long term by: domestic production, technical development, substitution, efficient use, recycling, and promotion of free and fair trading conditions on the world markets.
• The occurrences of metallic raw materials are depending on the geology.
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
Exploration of new mineral deposits,Exploration of new mineral deposits,
Technological development: Technological development:
Recycling, substitution, material efficiencyRecycling, substitution, material efficiency
Promoting free and fair trading conditionsPromoting free and fair trading conditions
Exploration of new mineral deposits,Exploration of new mineral deposits,
Technological development: Technological development:
Recycling, substitution, material efficiencyRecycling, substitution, material efficiency
Promoting free and fair trading conditionsPromoting free and fair trading conditions
Sources: BASF,Pics Boatnerd, BGR
B1 – Natural Resources, International Cooperation
- Europe is customer throughout the world
The European Market SituationThe European Market SituationThe European Market SituationThe European Market Situation
Europe needs open and transparent markets !
- Mineral raw materials are unequally distributed in the world
- Commodity markets are global markets
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