Érick lachapelle presentation - continental divide? canadian and us views on energy and climate...

CanadianPublicOpiniononClimateChangeandClimatePolicy

ÉrickLachapellePresenta:onatthePublicPolicyForumBreakfast

Con:nentalDivide?CanadianandUSViewsonEnergyandClimateChangeOFawaOntario,February23,2011

4.04

6.12

6.24

6.48

7.82

8.59

8.7

9.38

9.41

9.54

9.91

10.06

10.36

10.71

17.27

19.18

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Mexico

Switzerland

Sweden

France

Italy

Austria

Norway

GreatBritain

NewZealand

Japan

Denmark

Germany

Finland

Ireland

Canada

UnitedStates

MetrictonnesofCO2perperson

Percapitaemissionsfromfuelcombus6on,2008

Source:EIA

0.11

0.13

0.14

0.19

0.2

0.21

0.21

0.23

0.25

0.25

0.26

0.28

0.34

0.44

0.48

0.5

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5

Switzerland

Norway

Sweden

France

Denmark

Austria

Ireland

GreatBritain

Italy

Finland

Japan

Germany

NewZealand

UnitedStates

Mexico

Canada

MetrictonnesofCO2perThousandYear2005USD

CarbonIntensityUsingMarketExchangeRates,2008

Source:EIA

Policycontext•  U.S.policycontext

–  Repudia:onofKyoto–  Congressionalstalemateoncap‐and‐trade–  Backtothestates?

•  Canadianfederalpolicy–  Earlyengagementfollowedbyretreat–  Stalledcap‐and‐tradeandcarbontaxes–  Harmoniza:onwithU.S.

•  ProvincialpolicyinCanada–  Carbontaxes–  Capandtrade–  Feedintariffs

Wheredoesthepublicstand?

Na:onalSurveyofCanadianPublicOpiniononClimateChange

•  Inconjunc:onwithNa:onalSurveyofAmericanPublicOpiniononClimateChange(NSPOCC)–  ChristopherBorick(MuhlenbergCollege)andBarryRabe(UniversityofMichigan)

•  Applica:onofsameinstrumenttoCanadaforcross‐na:onalcomparison–  ErickLachapelle(UniversitédeMontréal)

•  CanadianpollsponsoredbythePublicPolicyForumandSustainableProsperity,withaddi:onalsupportfromInternatEnergySolu:onsCanada

•  Regionallystra:fiedrandomsampleviatelephonesurveyof1214respondents

•  Fieldingdates:13Januaryto4February2011

•  Marginoferror+/‐2.8%19:mesoutof20

Publicunderstandingofglobalwarming

Solidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverlast40years?

“Fromwhatyou’vereadandheard,istheresolidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverthelast40years?

6%

16%

14%

26%

80%

58%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Canada

U.S.

Yes

No

NotSure

Solidevidenceofwarmingglobaltemperaturesoverthelast40years?

89%

85%78%

66%

68%

66%84%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Aseriousproblem?Inyourviewisglobalwarmingaveryseriousproblem,somewhatseriousproblem,not

tooserious,ornotaproblem?

61%

30%

5%3%

57%

34%

6%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Veryserious Somewhatserious Nottooserious Notaproblem

USA

Canada

Top3reasonscitedforbeliefinclimatechange

«Andwhatistheprimaryreasonthathascausedyoutobelievethatglobaltemperatureshavebeenincreasing?»

14%

10%

13%

17%

33%

39%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Canada

USA

Warmertemps.Changingweather

Mel:ngglaciers

Scien:ficresearch

Beliefinglobalwarmingbypartyiden:fica:on

64%

91%

84%

89%87%

81%

28%

6%10% 10%

3%

12%8%

3%6%

1%

10%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Conserva:ve Liberal NDP BlocQuébecois Green Undecided

Yes

No

NotSure

“Ifafederalelec:onwereheldtoday,whichpoli:calpartywouldyouprobablyvotefor?”

Whatabout«Climategate»?

36%

60%

4%

47%49%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Agree Disagree NotSure

Canada

USA

«Scien:stsareoversta:ngevidenceaboutglobalwarmingfortheirowninterests»

Roleofrespec:vegovernmentlevels

Viewsongovernmentroles“Foreachlevelofgovernmentpleasetellmeifithasagreatdealofresponsibility,someresponsibilityornoresponsibilityfortakingac:onstoreduceglobalwarming”

5%

5%

5%

22%

23%

30%

30%

37%

36%

43%

35%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Federalgovernment

Stategovernments

Localgovernments

Agreatdealofresponsibility

Someresponsibility

Noresponsibility

NotSure

3%

2%

2%

8%

9%

13%

24%

36%

42%

65%

52%

42%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Federalgovernemnt

Provincialgovernments

Localgovernments

Agreatdealofresponsibility

Someresponsibility

Noresponsibility

NotSure

U.S.

Canada

FederalRoleinCanadaPercentsta:ng“agreatdealofresponsibility”foraddressingglobalwarming

61%

68%

66%

62%

50%

53%73%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Federalinac:onareasontoact?Percentagreeingtostatement“Ifthefederalgovernmentfailstoaddresstheissueof

climatechangeitismyprovince’sresponsibility…”

79%61%73%

61%

64%

69%81%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Economicbenefits?Percentagreeingtostatement“provincialgovernmentswillboosttheireconomiesby

requiringgreateruseofrenewableenergy”

Na:onaltotal:76%

76%

85%

74%

77%78%68%70%70%

68%78%

77%

74% 85%76%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Carbonpricing?

SupportforCapandTradeThere is a proposed system called cap and trade where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of

greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that did not use all their permits could sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies would find ways to put out less GHG because that would be cheaper than buying permits.

Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system

39% 36%

18%

49%

59%

74%

13%

5% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Cap&Trade C&T$15/mt C&T$50/mt

For

Against

NotSure

58%63%

58%

34% 33%38%

7%4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Cap&Trade C&T$15/mt C&T$50/mt

For

Against

NotSure

USA

Canada

SupportforCapandTradeinWCIPercentexpressingsupportforCapandTrade

55%

67%

57%

62%

52%

46%56%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Capandtrade:atwhatscale?“If a cap and trade system was to be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,

would you prefer it to be done at the national level, within a region of the country or only within an individual state?”

77%73%

10%6%

11% 12%

2%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

USA Canada

Na:onal Regional State/provinceonly NotSure

CapandTrade:atwhatscale?PercentexpressingpreferenceforCapandTradeatna:onallevel

74%

82%

73%

60%

69%

57%72%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Carbon Taxation “Another way to lower GHG emissions would be to increase taxes on carbon based

fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline and natural gas. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this type of system?”

22%

32%

15%

62% 63%

80%

6% 5% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

CarbonTax C.Tax$15/mt C.Tax$50/mt

For

Against

Notsure

51%

60%57%

45%

36%41%

4% 4% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CarbonTax C.Tax$15/mt C.Tax$50/mt

For

Against

Notsure

USA

Canada

SupportforCarbonTaxesbyRegionPercentexpressingsupportforCarbonTaxes

48%

57%50%

61%

34%

38%56%

Na:onaltotal:80%Note:mapadaptedfromhFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8d/Canada_GHG_map_2008‐en.svg

Revenuecollec:on«Andwhichlevelofgovernmentshouldcollectandusetherevenue»?

35%

39%

23%

3%

50%

35%

14%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Federal Provincial/State Notsure Refused

USA

Canada

Revenueuse“IfthegovernmentenactedapolicythatrequiredemiFerstopayforthereleaseofgreenhouse

gases,wheredoyoupreferthemoneygeneratedbespent?

43%

15%

8% 9%

14%

4%

7%

51%

15%

7%

10%

7% 6%4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Alterna:veEnergyR&D

TaxRebates Payrolltaxcuts Deficitreduc:on Don'tdoit Sustainexis:ngprograms

Notsure

USA

Canada

WillingnesstopayHowmuchwouldyoupayeachyearformorerenewableenergytobeproduced?

USA(2008) USA(2010) Canada

$0 22% 41% 21%

$1‐49 16% 26% 28%

$50‐99 17% 17% 19%

$100‐249 13% 7% 13%

$250‐499 10% 4% 6%

$500ormore 7% 2% 7%

Notsure 15% 4% 5%

Refused 1% 0% 1%

LessonsandImplica:ons•  Domes:cally,publicsupportforprovincialac:onstakenatlocallevel

–  Opposi:ondoesnotseemtoincreasewithexperience–  Canbe“goodpoli:cs”

•  BroadpublicsupportforrenewableenergyandR&Dmayprovide“framing”–  Wheremoneygoesandhowit’sspentmayhavetrac:onmovingforwardoncarbonpricing

•  GapbetweenwhatpublicexpectsfromFederallevel,andcurrentgovernmentpolicyinbothCanadaandtheU.S.

•  CurrentlylowersupportinUSforaggressiveclimatepolicy–  Notallbadnews,publicopinionisvola:le

•  Publicsupportwillbekeytoimplemen:ngclimatepolicy–abeFerunderstandingoffactorsunderlyingsupport(economiccondi:ons,personalobserva:onsofclimate,ideology)canhelptoiden:fywindowsofopportunityforpolicychange