evolution of the mobile ecosystem
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Evolution Of The Mobile
Ecosystem
iRetroPhone
16 Sept 2010
4B v 1B
75%Jan 2010 - Forrester
17%Jan 2010 - Forrester
Mobile: Older Families Have The Most PhonesSeptember 2009 “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2009, US”
What’s Going On?
• Ubiquitous wireless broadband• Devices that make it easy to do more than talk• Network effects• “Affordable” services
The Brick Era: Motorola DynaTAC
• Bell Labs proposed the idea of a cellular network in 1947
• Japan launched first (analog) network in 1979; Nordic network launched in 1981
• First handheld mobile phone in the US debuted in 1983; Motorola DynaTAC 8000x, cost $4K ($8,762 today)
The Flip Phone
• Motorola MicroTAC introduced in 1989; GSM-compatible (2G) and TDMA/Dual-Mode introduced in 1994
• Reportedly inspired by Star Trek
• Pocket-sized
Candy Bar 2G (digital) network launched in Finland in
1991 included SMS
Smart Phones:Nokia 9000 Communicator, 1996
Smart Phones: Palm Treo 180,
2002
Smart Phones: Nokia 6650 (3G),
2002
Smart Phones: RIM
BlackBerry 58102002
Smart Phones: Motorola Razr V3, 2004
Smart Phones: Apple iPhone,
2007
The Touch Era Is Born
Some iPhone Data Points
• March 2008: 85% iPhone users access news & info v 13.1% all mobile users and 58% all smart phone users
• More than 2,000 mobile applications in less than 1 year
• More than 10,000 mobile applications downloaded w/in 6 months of 3GS (June 2009)
The Mobile Ecosystem
• Operators and Networks• Devices• Operating Systems• Applications
Operators & Networks
1. China Mobile, >500M subscribers2. Vodafone, >340M subscribers3. Telefonica, >265M subscribers4. America Movil, >182M subscribers5. Telenor, >164M subscribers […]• Verizon (45% Vodafone), >92M subscribers• AT&T, >85M subscribers
Devices
• More than 4.6 billion cellphones• More than 6-in-10 people have cellphones
US Smartphone Market Share
ComScore, March 2010
RIM
Apple
Motorola
Palm
44.3
19.4
15.4
9.6
6.84.4
Percent, 1st Qtr 2010
SymbianRIMAppleAndroidWindowsOther
Operating Systems Global
Market Share
Applications
• Frameworks are standardized; devices are not
• Device variables include– Version supported– Screen size– Processor power– Graphics capabilities– Number and orientation of buttons
Web As Alternative?
• Web browser as solution to variability versus developing for a platform, such as iPhone or Android
• But each version of a device may have a different browser and/or a different version
• Operators set these requirements• Problem: device fragmentation
Types : SMS
• Most basic: SMS– Send keyword (“health”) to a shortcode
(“12345”) and get something in return– Think Twitter, Haiti fundraiser, WashDOT
Types: Mobile Web App
• Mobile Web Apps– Basic HTML, CSS, Javascript– Challenge to support multiple devices– Logical extension of web apps– Alters views in place rather than loading new
pages
Types : “Native Apps”
• Created and compiled for each platform• Best-in-class user experience• Cannot be easily ported to other devices
– An exception: games are relatively easy to port
What’s Different?
• Designing for fingers/touchscreens• Memory, CPU, power limits• Screen size• Task focus• Location-based features• Iffy-or-slow Internet access
AP
BBC
NPR
Positioning Mobile
• Seventh mass medium - Tomi Ahonen– Printing– Audio Recording– Cinema– Radio– TV– Internet
Positioning Mobile
• First personal mass medium• First always-on mass medium• First always-carried mass medium• First mass medium where individuals can be
identified• First mass medium to facilitate the “creative
impulse”
Source: Mobile Design and Development (p39) and http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Context
• Most mobile tasks are short• Most mobile tasks are undertaken “in
between” something else … waiting in line, riding the bus, walking between meetings
Take-Aways
• Immediate, Personal• $ Is The Question• Mobile devices soon to be key gateway to our
digital world
Credits Woman with mobile phone:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/2894092846/
Man with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/blindscapes/3621995479/
Three generations with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/olliesphotos/333193604/
Credits
• Kathy E. Gill, @kegill– http://wiredpen.com/– http://faculty.washington.edu/
• Creative Commons: non-commercial, attribution, share-and-share-alike
• Historical device images copyright respective owners, used here via Fair Use Doctrine• iPhone app images made using my device• Woman with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/jamesjustin/2894092846/• Man with mobile phone: http://www.flickr.com/photos/blindscapes/3621995479/• Three generations with mobile phone:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/olliesphotos/333193604/
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