garrett choudhury laurel wilt presentation v2trec.ifas.ufl.edu/rab-lw-2/pdfs/ab-lw-2016/karen...

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Acommonproblemindiseaseorpestmanagement• Adiseasemanagementconceptortechnologymayworkwellinanexperiment,but…

• Howwelldowereallyunderstanditsperformanceacrossaregion?• Willacriticalmassofpeoplelearnaboutitandadoptit?• Willthe"managementlandscape"slowepidemicsenoughtoprotectproduction?

• Ourroleinthisprojectistointegratetheresultsofotherresearchintoaregionalscenarioanalysistosupportdecisionmaking

Partofthesolution

• Understandhowthesocioeconomicandbiophysicalnetworksthataffectlaurelwiltcomposeasinglesystem,andwhatisneededforsuccessfulmanagement

• Stillneed• Goodmanagementtools• Managerstobeconvincedtousemanagementtoolsappropriately

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Traitsofnetworknodes• Inasocioeconomicnetwork,nodesarepeopleorhumaninstitutions(managers/farmers,extensionagents,scientists,…)

• Inabiophysicalnetwork,nodesaregeographiclocations(individualplants,farms,storagefacilities,wildlands,…)

• Degreecentrality– numberoflinks• Betweenness centrality– importanceasabridgebetweenothernodes

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Impactnetworkanalysis(INA)

• TheGarrettLabisdevelopingINAasaplatformforevaluatingsystemmanagementstrategies(suchascropbreedingnetworks,seedsystems,andintegratedpestanddiseasemanagement)

• ImpactOF researchproductssuchasinformation/training,diseaseresistance,anddisease-freeseedproductiontechnologies

• ImpactON spatialecologicalprocesses,suchasgene/genotypespread,pathogeninvasionsorecosystemservicesmorebroadly

• ImpactTHROUGH communicationanddecision-makingnetworks,andlinkedbiophysicalnetworks

Socioeconomicnetwork(exchangeofideasandmoney)

Biophysicalnetwork(movementofplants,pathogens,andpests)

Impactnetworkanalysis

Garrett,inreview

Managementtechnologies

Outcome:yield,profit,systemresil,etc.

IntegrationofsocioeconomicandbiophysicalcomponentsHeterogeneityPhenotypesConstraints

Realism Questionslike:Howdochangesinnetworktraits,suchaschangesinmechanismsforinterpersonalinfluence,affectsystemoutcomes?

PrecisionQuestionslike:Whichparticularcommunicationorlandnodesarekeycontrolpointsfortransmissionthroughthelandscape?

Generality Questionslike:Howcanachangeinimpactnetworkcomponentscompensateforincreasedrisktomaintainsystemsustainability?

Impactnetworks,broadly

ImpactnetworkanalysisofLWmanagement

Diseasemanagementcomponents

Communicationnetwork Ecological(Dispersal)networkDecisionnetwork Establishmentnetwork

ImpactNetworkAnalysis(INA)Components

Qualityofinformationormanagement

Avocadogrowersmanagementnetworks

BeetleandRaffaelea lauricola populationspread

Communicationnetworksthatinfluenceavocadogrowerdecisionmaking,withorwithoutfullinformation

ImpactNetworkAnalysis(INA)ofLaurelWilt

• Integratethesocioeconomicandbiophysicalanalysesofthelaurelwiltmanagementsystem

• Evaluatetheeffectsofcumulativedecisionsbygrowersaboutwhetherandhowtomanagelaurelwilt

• TheINAwillbeusedinscenarioanalysistoevaluatequestionssuchas• howeffectiveamanagementapproachwouldhavetobeforsystem-levelbenefits

• potentialeffectsofpoliciesrelatedtolaurelwiltmanagement• identifykeyrisklocationsintheepidemicnetworkforsamplingandmitigation.

TwoScalesinModeling

• Within-grove epidemicsandmanagementstrategies• Epidemicsandmanagementataregionalscale,andbeyond

WithinGroveManagementofLW

WithinGroveManagementofLW

WithinGroveManagementofLW

WithinGroveManagementofLW

WithinGroveManagementofLW

RegionalManagementofLW

RegionalManagementofLW

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Acknowledgements

WeappreciatesupportfromUSDANIFAandtheopportunitytointegratedatafromthemanygrowersandothercolleaguesworkingtoeffectivelymanagelaurelwilt

KarenGarrett,karengarrett@ufl.eduRobinChoudhury,ra.choudhury@ufl.edu