hurricane wrf(hwrf) 與typhoon wrf(twrf) 於西北...
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Model configuration for ensemble members in TAPEX, 2015
編號-群組 model ICs LBCs Cumulus scheme
Microphysics scheme Boundary Layer note
11-C1 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU with blending, 2way
01-C2 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS GD Goddard YSU
02-C3 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS G3 Goddard YSU
03-C4 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS BMJ Goddard YSU
06-C5 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS KF(1) Goddard YSU
07-C6 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS GD(3) Goddard YSU
08-C7 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS G3(5) Goddard YSU
09-C8 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS BMJ Goddard YSU
10-I1 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV3) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU with blending
12-I2 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV3) CWBGFS KF Goddard YSU with blending
04-I3 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU
05-I4 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU no RO data; VS 11 with blending, 2way
13-I5 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV3) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU
14-I6 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU
15-I7 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU no RO data; VS 06
16-O1 CreSS cold start NODA NCEPGFS No CPS Cold rain Mellor and Yamada grid size 5km
17-O2 CreSS cold start NODA NCEPGFS No CPS Cold rain Mellor and Yamada grid size 2.5 km
18-O3 WRF cold start NODA NCEPGFS KF WSM5 YSU e_vert=28,two way,d03cu
19-O4 MM5 cold start NODA NCEPGFS Grell Goddard MRF
20-O5 MM5 cold start 4DVAR bogus NCEPGFS Grell Goddard MRF
21-H1 HWRF cold start NODA NCEPGFS SAS Ferrier NCEP GFS 27/9/3
22-H2 HWRF cold start NODA HWRF bogus NCEPGFS SAS Ferrier NCEP GFS 27/9/3, moving
nested
23-C9 WRF partial cycle 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS Tiedtke Goddard YSU cu=Tiedtke
24-C10 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5+OL) NCEPGFS Tiedtke Goddard YSU cu=Tiedtke
25-R1 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5) NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU Radar, 30 hrs, d03NOcu
26-O6 WRF cold start NODA NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU Large d03:301*241
27-R2 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV7) 15/3km NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU Radar, 30 hrs, d02NOcu,CV7
28-R3 WRF cold start 3DVAR (CV5) 15/3km NCEPGFS KF Goddard YSU No Radar, 30 hrs, d02NOcu
Hurricane WRF in Taiwan
• TTFRI and CWB collaborated with ESRL/NOAA and had successfully implemented the Hurricane WRF(HWRF) model in Taiwan since 2012.
• In Apr. 2013, TTFRI and CWB had the operational version of HWRF from EMC.
• TTFRI had added 2 HWRF members into Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) from 2012 to 2014.
Configuration of HWRF
Static domain
Moving domain
Experiment cold/warm analysis bogus Cu. M.P. PBL Note
HWRF (M22) cold start NODA HWRF
bogus SAS Ferrier NCEP GFS
43levels; P_top 50hPa; 2 way; 27/9/3km; moving; no ocean couple & no GSI; IC&BC from NCEP T574 atmospheric spectral data and include NCEP 0.5deg data.
HWRF_T (M21) cold start NODA no
bogus SAS Ferrier NCEP GFS
43levels; P_top 50hPa; 1 way; 45/15/5 27/9/3km; static; no ocean couple & no GSI; IC&BC from NCEP 0.5deg data.
5
2013-2014 TTFRI HWRF vs. EMC HWRF
26
53
75
101
128
156
188
28 51
72
94
125
155
188
0
50
100
150
200
0(704) 12(650) 24(593) 36(532) 48(475) 60(417) 72(362)
Track err
or(km)
Forecast hour(# of cases)
2013-14EMC_HWRF
2013-14TTFRI_HWRF
MSLP of HWRF_T(45/15/5km) has Bull’s eye
06/20 18Z +18fhr
06/24 00Z +12fhr
07/11 00Z +42fhr
07/12 00Z +24fhr
Reduce terrain resolution >> adjust ptsgm level from 200hPa to 420hPa(HWRF)
06/20 18Z +18fhr
06/24 00Z +12fhr
07/11 00Z +42fhr
07/12 00Z +24fhr
Bull’s eye of MSLP had significantly reduced when increasing the resolution(27/9/3km)
HWRF with static domain • In typhoon season 2014
– Increase the horizontal resolution of 3-nested domain from 45/15/5 km to 27/9/3 km.
– Reduce the vertical resolution from 43 to 28 levs for limited computing resource.
– But the track performance was poor after 24 forecast hour.
9
44 70
124
168
212
266
324
44 70
111 145
162 205
235
35 72
101 132
158 196 205
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0(54) 12(51) 24(46) 36(43) 48(39) 60(35) 72(31)
Trac
k Er
ror
Forecast hour(# of cases)
typhoon MATMO and FUNG-WONG(2014)
M21_28levs_d1
M21_43levs_d1
M11_d1(TWRF)
HWRF with moving nested domain
10
44 70
124
168
212
266
324
44 70
111
145 162
205
235
35
72 101
132 158
196 205
63 78
91 117
158
191
229
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0(54) 12(51) 24(46) 36(43) 48(39) 60(35) 72(31)
Trac
k Er
ror
Forecast hour(# of cases)
typhoon MATMO and FUNG-WONG(2014)
M21_28levs_d1
M21_43levs_d1
M11_d1(TWRF)
M22_d1(HWRF)
Track performance of HWRF and TWRF
11
37 54
109
165
229
294
367
37 51
97
144
189
239
283
38 56
88 117
143
194 207
50 70 80
114 153
187 223
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0(18) 12(22) 24(26) 36(26) 48(26) 60(22) 72(18)
Tra
ck E
rror
(km
)
Forecast hour(# of cases)
MATMO and FUNG-WONG(2014), heavy rainfall period
M21_28levs_d1
M21_43levs_d1
M11_d1(TWRF)
M22_d1(HWRF)
Rainfall forecast skill score of typhoon FUNG-WONG&MATMO (18 cases)
12
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
50 80 130 200 350 500
Thre
at S
core
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 00-24 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3
50 80 130 200 350 500
BIAS
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 00-24 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
50 80 130 200 350 500
Thre
at S
core
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 24-48 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3
50 80 130 200 350 500
BIAS
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 24-48 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
50 80 130 200 350 500
Thre
at S
core
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 48-72 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3
50 80 130 200 350 500
BIAS
Threshold
MATMO&FUNG-WONG(2014) 48-72 fhr
M21_43Lev M21_28Lev M11 M22
Summary & Future work
• We successfully implemented HWRF system in Taiwan and evaluated the track and rainfall forecast performance of HWRF over WNP from 2013-2014.
• For static domain HWRF configuration with higher vertical(43levs) and horizontal(3 km) resolution can have better capabilities in forecasting typhoon track and rainfall.
• To update the 2015 operational HWRF version and continue evaluating the performance over the WNP.
13
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