it warfare since 1997

NtreevGameConference

IT WarfareSince 1997

NtreevGameConference

Osmos!Chapter!1.!게임의!룰

!Chapter!2.!두!개의!전장

Enterprise & Consumer

Enterprise

Enterprise Consumer

Enterprise Consumer

Enterprise Consumer

기업(법인) 개인

고객의$차이

Enterprise Consumer

PC

PC

Network

ServerStorage

DB

OSOffice S/W

Front-End

Back-End

Enterprise Consumer

느리다 빠르다

변화의$속도

Enterprise Consumer

Enterprise Consumer

Music

Phone

Book

TV

Movie

Enterprise Consumer

Apple Data Center North Carolina

-"10억달러의"설비투자

-"HP"Server

-"MS"Azure,"Amazone"AWS

Enterprise Consumer

3rd Suplier

Enterprise

Enterprise War!Chapter!3.!다섯!전쟁의!승리자들

완벽한!승리자

1. Database WAR

~1993트로이카%시대

DB2Informix

UNIX &WindowsMarket

Mainframe Market

1993~1994치열한%전투

Informix

소송

매각

메인프레임쇠퇴

1994~2000재편성

Informix

2000~2011독점적%지위

2000~2011독점적%지위

MySQL

2000~2011독점적%지위

Database%전쟁요약

✓"600억달러"시장

✓"독점적"지위"확립

✓"시장점유율"50%"육박

✓"매출"356억"달러

✓"NC반란"(1996)"실패

✓"ERP전쟁"(vs"SAP)

✓"서버전쟁"(Sun"인수)

2강!1약으로!압축된!각축전! 2. Server WAR

2002년말%상황

430억달러"규모,"2001년"500억달러에서"8%감소"

31.1% 25.2%

15.1%7.5%

2010년말%상황

488억달러"규모,"진입장벽"높음

31.4% 30.8%

14.7%6.3% 4.4%

Server%전쟁요약

✓"10년전"시장규모"유지

✓"SUN,"Compaq의"퇴출

✓"IBM-HP"양강체제"10년

✓"Dell의"꾸준한"성장

✓"Cloud가"관건

연전연승의!무결점타자 3. Network WAR

Router Hub

LAN!Card

Router

Switch

IPTelephony

Brocade

F5

Citrix

70%!market!share

Network%전쟁요약

✓"수많은"경쟁자,"일방적게임"

✓"압도적"점유율"70%

✓"600억달러의"시장

✓"서버시장"노크중

거인들!사이에서!살아남다

4. Storage WAR

2010 Revenue

Market Share

1 EMC 5,441 25.6%

2 IBM 2,922 13.8%

3 NetApp 2,352 11.1%

4 HP 2,352 11.1%

5 Dell 1,926 9.1%

OthersOthers 6,229 29.3%

21,222

Storage%전쟁요약

✓"꾸준히"시장을"지배

✓"212억달러의"규모

✓"2위와"두배격차

✓"많은"경쟁자

✓"서버"거인들의"참여

기나!긴!전쟁,!상처뿐인!영광

5. PC WAR

199610%

8.6%

6.0%

5.9%

5.1%

70.9million

199713.1%

8.6%

5.5%

5.3%

5.1%

80.6million

199813.8%

8.2%

7.9%

5.8%

4.3%

92.9million

199913.2%

9.8%

7.9%

6.4%

5.2%

113.5million

200012.8%

10.8%

7.6%

6.8%

4.3%

134.7million

200113.1%

11.1%

7.2%

6.4%

3.8%

128.1million

200216.2%

15.2%

6.0%

3.4%

3.2%

132.4million

200315.0%

14.3%

5.1%

3.8%

2.9%

168.9million

200416.4%

14.6%

5.5%

3.8%

3.4%

189.0million

200516.8%

14.5%

6.9%

4.6%

3.8%

218.5million

200615.9%

15.9%

7.0%

5.8%

3.8%

239.4million

200718.2%

14.3%

8.9%

7.4%

4.0%

271.2million

200818.4%

14.3%

11.1%

7.2%

4.5%

302.2million

200919.3%

13.0%

12.2%

8.1%

5.1%

305.9million

201017.9%

12.9%

12.0%

9.7%

5.4%

325million

PC%전쟁의%중요변수

HP의$PC사업부$분사

iPad의$급속한$PC$시장잠식

Post$PC$Issue

시장규모%비교

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

(2010년기준)

PC Network DB Server Storage

PC%전쟁요약

✓"96년부터"4배성장

✓"1400억"달러"규모

✓"가장"많은"경쟁자포진

✓"거인들의"이탈

✓"Post"PC"이슈

$432$615$999$1,260$356

$170

$699 $652

$292

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400

PC Network DB Server Storage

$432

$999$1,260

$356 $170

Enterprise War

Hardware

Software

Service������

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Enterprise War Consumer War

Enterprise War Consumer War

Enterprise War Consumer War

!Chapter!4.!제국의!형성

1984 ~1997확실한%두개의%무기

WindowsMS Office

OS%전쟁%:일방적%학살

Win9569.7%

MS-DOS10.1%

Win%NT9.2%

����� ����

��������

������

89%

압도적점유율

(1997년%기준)

Word%전쟁%:%비열한전투

0

25

50

75

100

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

WordPerfect Word for DOS Word for Win WP for Win

Win 3.0 Win 95(%)

Excel%전쟁%:%비열한전투%2

0

20

40

60

80

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Lotus 1-2-3 Quattro Excel

Win 3.0 Win 95

Windows

Office

89%

94%

Market Share

200

400

600

800

1,0001997

$119

200

400

600

800

1,0001997

$11942%

49%

9%

Windows

Office

others

새로운%컴퓨팅%이데올로기

Server%Based!Computing

ClientServer%

Server$

Server%Based!Computing

Client$

App!:!O

Data!:!O

�����861�KS��,��Z �#N�+

Server$

Client/Server%

Client$

App!:!O

Data!:!O

DG����861W��>P�

�"���L=�DQ��M

Data!:!O

남은숙제와%새로운전쟁

✓$Windows/Office$주도권✓$반독점소송✓$브라우저$전쟁$vs$Netscape✓$새로운$수익원$:$서버부문✓$네트워크$컴퓨팅$진압$

이$즈음$재등장한$인물이$있었으니...$

Steve Jobs

VS

총체적%난국뉴튼의"실패,"라이센싱"정책

Win

D-�/.RD�E����� (Z-

��H��J ���

�@���

���;�#�TFY2

!Chapter!5.!권토중래

iMac으로%기적적%생환

1998

$119

$71

(단위:억달러)

42%49%

9%

64%17%

20%

OfficeWindows

DesktopPortable

Software

1997

40%

48%

11%

$119

$71

(단위:억달러)

OfficeWindows

1997 1998

$153

$59

66%15%

18%

DesktopPortable

Software

45%46%

9%

$119

$71

(단위:억달러)

OfficeWindows

1997 1998

$153

$59

69%14%

17%

DesktopPortable

Software$61

1999

$197

33%

41%

18%7%

$119

$71

(단위:억달러)

Office

Windows

1997 1998

$153

$5964%

22%

14%

DesktopPortable

Software

$61

1999

$197

2000

$79

$229

Server

iMac%제외하곤%신통찮은%성적

2001

33%

39%

20%8%

$119

$71

(단위:억달러)

Office

Windows

1997 1998

$153

$5952%

30%

18%Desktop

Portable

Software

$61

1999

$197

2000

$79

$229

Server

2001

$252

$53

2001중대한%전환점

2001두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다

Windows

Office

X-Box

ServerWindows DNAWindows 2000SQL ServerExchange ServerVisual Studio

2001두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다

Windows

Office

Browser$전쟁$승리

Windows$XP

85%%점유율

역대%최고%버전

iPod 2001

iTunes

Mac$OS$X‘Cheetah’

33%

39%

20%8%

(단위:억달러)

Office

Windows

52%30%

18%Desktop

Portable

Software

Server

$119

$71

1997 1998

$153

$59 $61

1999

$197

2000

$79

$229

2001

$252

$53

33%

39%

20%8%

(단위:억달러)

Office

Windows

52%30%

18%Desktop

Portable

Software

Server

2000

$79

$229

2001

$252

$53

(단위:억달러)2000

$79

$229

2001

$252

$53

34%

34%

19%

13%

(단위:억달러)

49%30%

21%

2000

$79

$229

2001

$252

$53

Office

Windows

Desktop

Portable

iPod

Server

X-Box

2002

$283

$57

Consumer Market

PC War주변기기

Software

Consumer Market

PC War주변기기

Software

MP3 Player(Audio)의외의%행보

그러나%완벽히%맞아%떨어진%작전

49%30%

21%

Desktop

2002

Portable

iPod

.MacMobileMe의$전신

:%57억불

39%

33%

10%

6%

1%11%

Desktop

2003

Portable

iPodMusic$Store

Safari

iLife

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%62억불

반격의%움직임...

29%

31%10%

16%

3%11%

Desktop

2004

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%82억불

I4VN�7��

H10

iPod%nano

25%

20%

8%

33%

6% 8%Desktop

2005

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%139억불

iPod%nano

25%

20%

8%

33%

6% 8%Desktop

2005

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%139억불

iWorks

17%

21%

7%

40%

10% 6% Desktop

2006

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%193억불

Intel$MacMacbook

Zune

Windows mobile

iPhoneiPod touch

2007

2007

IT역사의%큰%획을%그은%해

Desktop

Portable

iPod

iPhone

iPad

AppleTV

Music

Movie

Drama

Book PodcastCloud

MailCalendar

Contacts Photo

iWork

iLife

App StoreMac App Store

Pro App

Mac OS

iOS

GameCenter

Safari

OS

Hardware

ContentsService

Software

OS

Hardware

ContentsService

Software

애플%생태계

OS

Service

Hardware

Software

Contents

공급자사용자

개발자

Client Server

이데올로기

App Data Data

App DataWEB

이데올로기,%생태계%전쟁으로%몰고감

17%

26%

6%

35%

1%10%

5% Desktop

2007

PortableiPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

:%240억불

iPhone

15%

23%

6%24%

18%

9%5%

2008 :%374억불

Desktop

PortableiPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

iPhone

2009

S/W

:%429억불

10%

22%

6%19%

30%

9%3% Desktop

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

iPhone

2010

S/W

:%652억불

S/W

10%

17%

4%

13%39%

8%3%8% Desktop

Portable

iPod

Music

S/W

Hardware

iPhone

iPad

2011 :%1,003억불

S/WS/W

6%13%

3%

8%

45%

6%2%

17%Desktop

Portable

iPod

Music S/W

Hardware

iPhone

iPad

!Chapter!6.!거대한!계획

태생적으로%%WEB%원리주의자

�����

1998

�����

1998 2002

���� �����

�����

1998 2002

���� �����

매출"4억$

"57억$

"283억$

�����

1998

�����

1998 2003

Ad"Sense

수익모델"확보

�����

1998 2003

Ad"Sense

수익모델"확보

2004

주식공모

천문학적인"자금조달

�����

1998

2004

picasabloger

�����

1998

2004

picasabloger

2005

Maps

�����

1998

2004

picasabloger

2005

Maps

2006

GmailCalendarYoutube

�����

1998

2004

picasabloger

2005

Maps

2006

GmailCalendarYoutube

2007

Docsdoubleclick

�����

1998 2007

2008

2009

9�6���C$���='�:>*�+��X�3�E:

B�U?<:A&%��O��:�!�

05�)��U?<:

Client Server

이데올로기

App Data Data

App DataWEB

그러나$안드로이드,

애플의$모델을$따라가다$

Client Server

이데올로기%혼란

App Data Data

App Data

~2003

~2007

~2009

~2011

$Chapter$7.$최후의$승리자는?

•엔터프라이즈$시장에$깊은$뿌리

•제품$다양성$확보$2➔4개$부문

•5배$성장$(119억$$➔$624억$)

•Music,$Mobile$실패로$밀리는$양상

•노림수$:$Windows$8

1997$~$2010

1997$~$2010

•생태계의$띠$완성단계$:$시너지

•주체$못할$성장$(70억$$➔$652억$)

•iCloud$성공여부가$변수

•추가$노림수$:$$Apple$TV

1997$~$2010

•막강한$컨텐츠와$서비스$역량

•All$Cloud$완성시$All$Kill까지$가능

•수익모델$확보$(0$$➔$293억$)

•떠나는$연합군$:$Motolora$인수여파

•Adroid,$Chrome$OS$연계$?

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App

경쟁의%자격

•확실한$컨텐츠

•저가형$타블렛$or$킨들

•Cloud$Service$Platform

그럼%나머지%회사들은?

전쟁의%양상

Client$Based Server$Based

제1전역제2전역

제%1%전역$Client$와$Server$양$진영의$

이데올로기$전쟁

구글$입장에서$

바라본$승리의$요건

목표$:$값싸게$대량보급$하여$

구글을$쉽게$이용하게$하는$것

대량보급의$전제조건

저사양,$최소한의$스토리지

최소$App과$Chrome$탑재

Cloud+WEB%App

그러기$위해선...

무제한$데이타$요금제

무료$Wi-Fi$구축에$지대한$관심

쉽.지.않.은.문.제

Mobile:App$Base

Desktop:WEB$Base

Chroms OS Adroid

유저경험의%부조화

TouchPad

$99

HP로부터의%교훈안드로이드$너무$비싸

WEB%App의%완성도아직$갈길이$남았다

Office$대항마

touch$I/F$고려

차세대$WEB기술

모토롤라%인수여파우군이$떠나고$있다

대량보급이$필요한$시점,

우군$상실은$뼈아픔

종합평가

•높은$안드로이드$가격

•유저경험$부조화

•App$완성도

•모토롤라$인수여파

본격"전쟁에"나서기"약간"이른"느낌

B-

전쟁의%양상

Client$Based Server$Based

제1전역제2전역

또%다른%경쟁

�

�

Client$Based

�애플의%MS공략법

Microsoft의$근본을$흔드는$것$

Core에%대한%공세Office$+$Windows

왜%MS에%밀렸었나%?

“소프트웨어가$없어”

“호환성이$문제야”

지금은%상황이%다름

이제$앱은$애플의$최대강점

호환성$문제,$거의$사라짐

애플의%최대숙제

App$Store의$앱과$개발자들을

Mac$OS내로$끌어들이는$것

Keynote$:iPhone,"iPad,"Mac""

기기에"특화된"버전으로"상호작용

iWorks

iLife

애플의%소프트웨어%라인업

iPad

iPad%+%iWorks

iPad$:$PC$성장세에$영향

iWork$:$Office에$필적Numbers의"성장이"필수

종합평가

•풍부한$App

•App의$Mac$OS$유입

•iWorks

3사중"가장"유리한"위치

A

또%다른%경쟁

�

�

Client$Based

두%가지%고민

✓%Apple%보다%앞서%OS통합✓%Hardware를%가져야%하나?

Windows%8

인수합병시$구글처럼

우군이탈$가능성

✓$Hardware를$가져야$하나?

종합평가

•풍부한$App

•App의$Mac$OS$유입

•iWorks

사용할"수"있는"카드가"많지"않음

B

B B-A

최종%승리의%가능성

만약%패배한다면

iOS가"밀린다면"1997년"

최초"시작모드로"돌아갈"것

Windows+Office"결계가"

깨진다해도"오래"버틸듯

검색과"온라인"서비스"부문

만으로"물러나"앉을"것

소비자가%바라는%것

‘3자%균형’✓"경쟁이"발전을"촉발✓"취향에"따라"다양한"선택"

Win"8로"개성을"

유지하며"버텨줄것

Pure"SVC의"모습

으로"돌아가길잡스나"건강하길

IT Warfare의"IT삼국지

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