la prévision des ventes
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McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-1
La prévision des ventes
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-2
Leitmotiv
Nomenclatures correctes et à jour précises à 98%.
Gammes de fabrication précises à 95%
Relevés de stocks à jour précis à 95%.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-3
Horizon de planification
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-4
Exemple de séries temporellesFig. 2-2
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-5
Erreurs de prévision dans le tempsFig. 2-3
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-6
Moyennes mobilesFig. 2-4
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-7
Importance des poids sur les prévisions pour le lissage exponentiel
Fig. 2-5
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-8
Exponential Smoothing for Different Values of Alpha
Fig. 2-6
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-9
Exemple de régression linéaireFig. 2-7
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-10
Serie saisonnièreFig. 2-8
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-11
Série saisonnièreFig. 2-9
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-12
Exemple PHEA
Période Quantités vendues
H 98 5500P 98 5100E 98 3500A 98 2900H 99 6500P 99 6300E 99 5000A 99 3800H 00 7800P 00 7300E 00 6000A 00 5400H 01 9200P 01 8800E 01 7000A 01 6300
Quantités vendues
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
H98
P98
E98
A98
H99
P99
E99
A99
H00
P00
E00
A00
H01
P01
E01
A01
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-13
Exemple
Hiver Y calculé Y réel Y réel / Y calculéH 98 4332 5500 1.270H 99 5232 6500 1.242H 00 6132 7800 1.272H 01 7032 9200 1.308
1.27310098
Indice moyenPrévision pour l'hiver
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-14
Series saisonnières avec augmentation de la demande
Fig. 2-10
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-15
Initialisation de la méthode de winters
Fig. 2-11
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-16
Difficultés rencontrées avec les prévisions à long terme
Fig. 2-12
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-17
Tracking the Mean When Lost Sales are Present
Fig. 2-13
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-18
Tracking the Standard Deviation When Lost Sales are Present
Fig. 2-14
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2-19
Logistic Curve (for Problem 45)
Fig. 2-15
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