labor market information colorado department of labor and employment economic climate and employment...

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Economic Climate and Employment OutlookThrough 2018

Alexandra HallDirector, Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Today’s Presentation• What is Labor Market Information?

• Colorado’s Current Economy

• Colorado’s Future Economy

• Growing/Declining Industries

• Top Jobs

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

• Economic activity peaked December 2007

• Since then, almost 7 million jobs lost nationwide

• Perspective – About 1 in 3 temporary help,1 in 5 construction and 1 in 7 manufacturing jobs have been lost in the U.S.

• Job losses have slowed substantially

Current Economy:Nation

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Gross domestic product

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Personal Consumption Expenditures

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Gross Private Domestic Investment

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Personal Consumption Expenditures as a Share of U.S. GDP

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

197

0-I

197

1-I

197

2-I

197

3-I

197

4-I

197

5-I

197

6-I

197

7-I

197

8-I

197

9-I

198

0-I

198

1-I

198

2-I

198

3-I

198

4-I

198

5-I

198

6-I

198

7-I

198

8-I

198

9-I

199

0-I

199

1-I

199

2-I

199

3-I

199

4-I

199

5-I

199

6-I

199

7-I

199

8-I

199

9-I

200

0-I

200

1-I

200

2-I

200

3-I

200

4-I

200

5-I

200

6-I

200

7-I

200

8-I

200

9-I

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Net Exports of Goods & ServicesBillions of Dollars

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

197

0-I

197

0-IV

1

971-

III

197

2-II

197

3-I

197

3-IV

1

974-

III

197

5-II

197

6-I

197

6-IV

1

977-

III

197

8-II

197

9-I

197

9-IV

1

980-

III

198

1-II

198

2-I

198

2-IV

1

983-

III

198

4-II

198

5-I

198

5-IV

1

986-

III

198

7-II

198

8-I

198

8-IV

1

989-

III

199

0-II

199

1-I

199

1-IV

1

992-

III

199

3-II

199

4-I

199

4-IV

1

995-

III

199

6-II

199

7-I

199

7-IV

1

998-

III

199

9-II

200

0-I

200

0-IV

2

001-

III

200

2-II

200

3-I

200

3-IV

2

004-

III

200

5-II

200

6-I

200

6-IV

2

007-

III

200

8-II

200

9-I

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Government Expenditures

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Government Spending as a Share of GDP

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

U.S. Retail Sales, TotalOver the Year Percent Change

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Debt

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Federal Funds Rate

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

U.S. EmploymentOver the Month Percent Change

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan-

70

Jan-

71

Jan-

72

Jan-

73

Jan-

74

Jan-

75

Jan-

76

Jan-

77

Jan-

78

Jan-

79

Jan-

80

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

U.S. Employment

124,000,000

126,000,000

128,000,000

130,000,000

132,000,000

134,000,000

136,000,000

138,000,000

140,000,000

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Employment Change

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Current Economy: Colorado

• Employment peaked 9 months later in August 2008

• Lost over 110,000 jobs through August 2009

• Unemployment rate may have peaked at 7.8% in July 2009, down to 7.3% in August

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Colorado Employment

2,125,000

2,175,000

2,225,000

2,275,000

2,325,000

2,375,000

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Colorado 4 Quarter Moving Average Establishment Openings & ClosingsOriginal Data Not Seasonally Adjusted

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

2001

:Q1

2001

:Q2

2001

:Q3

2001

:Q4

2002

:Q1

2002

:Q2

2002

:Q3

2002

:Q4

2003

:Q1

2003

:Q2

2003

:Q3

2003

:Q4

2004

:Q1

2004

:Q2

2004

:Q3

2004

:Q4

2005

:Q1

2005

:Q2

2005

:Q3

2005

:Q4

2006

:Q1

2006

:Q2

2006

:Q3

2006

:Q4

2007

:Q1

2007

:Q2

2007

:Q3

2007

:Q4

2008

:Q1

2008

:Q2

2008

:Q3

2008

:Q4

Establishment Openings Establishment Closings

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Colorado: Gross Job Gains & Losses 4 Qtr Moving Average

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

Gross Job Gains Gross Job Losses

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Colorado Employment Changes

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Current Economy:On the Bright Side, Modest Improvement

• Consumer confidence may have turned the corner

• Job losses have slowed substantially

• Stimulus dollars are flowing

• According to many experts, Colorado is poised to lead the nation out of recession

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Looking Forward:Colorado Employment Through 2018

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Looking Forward:Regional Perspective

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Looking Forward:Colorado’s Top Occupations

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Contact Us

Alexandra HallLabor Market InformationColorado Dept of Labor & Employment 633 17th St, Ste 600Denver, CO 80202303 318-8850 phone